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1.
全球变暖对中国北方气候的影响已经引发了学术界的广泛关注,地质增温期东亚季风变迁历史可为理解未来气候变化提供重要参考.文章主要基于中国北方夏季风边缘带的湖泊、黄土等记录的古植被信息,探讨了末次冰盛期至全新世全球增温过程中东亚季风的变化历史.地质记录显示,末次冰盛期东亚冬季风增强,夏季风减弱,中国北方气候干冷,大部分地区呈现荒漠草原或干草原景观,贺兰山以东沙地的东南边界和现代沙地边界接近或略向东南方向小幅扩张.在由冷转暖的末次冰消期,东亚冬季风逐渐减弱,夏季风逐渐增强,但在快速变冷的Heinrich 1(H1)和Younger Dryas(YD)事件期间,中国北方气候变干.全新世冬季风减弱,夏季风显著增强,季风雨带向西北推进至少300km,中国中东部干旱区范围大幅度缩小,北方喜暖喜湿植物显著增加.从夏季风边缘带的记录看,中全新世夏季风最为强盛.显然,古增温有利于东亚夏季风的增强,从而极大改善中国北方的生态环境.如果全球变暖持续下去,中国北方将变得湿润.与轨道尺度记录相比,高分辨率的古植被记录较为缺乏,全新世气候突变事件以及百年-十年尺度气候旋回尚需深入研究,应作为今后研究的重点. 相似文献
2.
利用大量的古多年冻土遗迹和古冰缘现象,并佐以古冰川、孢粉及动物化石等资料,重建了20ka以来中国多年冻土演化进程.结果表明,在末次冰期最盛期(LGM,或末次多年冻土最大期LPMax),中国多年冻土面积达到了5.3×10^6~5.4×10^6km^2(现今中国多年冻土面积的3倍多),而全新世大暖期(HMP,或末次多年冻土最小期LPMin),中国多年冻土面积曾缩减至0.80×10^6~0.85×10^6km^2(约为现今中国多年冻土面积的50%).按照古冻土遗迹的年代及分布等特征,在确定LGM和HMP两个主要时段的冻土格局基础上,将20ka以来中国多年冻土演化进程划分为7个阶段:晚更新世LGM(20000~10800aBP)多年冻土强烈扩展,达到LPMax;早全新世气候剧变期(10800至8500~7000aBP)多年冻土较稳定但相对缩减阶段;中全新世HMP(8500~7000至4000~3000aBP)多年冻土强烈退化阶段,多年冻土缩减到LPMin;晚全新世新冰期(4000~3000至1000aBP)冻土扩展阶段;晚全新世中世纪暖期(1000~500aBP)多年冻土相对退化阶段;晚全新世小冰期(LIA, 500~100aBP)冻土相对扩展阶段,以及近代升温期(近百年来)多年冻土持续退化阶段.本文重建了各时段内古气候、古地理环境以及多年冻土分布范围和其他特征. 相似文献
3.
赛里木湖孢粉记录的亚洲内陆西风区全新世植被与气候变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对西风区新疆赛里木湖沉积岩芯的精确定年和孢粉、炭屑分析,重建了该地区全新世以来的植被和气候环境演化历史.结果表明,~9.6cal.kaBP前的早全新世,研究区以荒漠植被为主,A/C比值和第一主成分样品得分所指示的有效湿度明显偏低,第二主成分样品得分所指示的气温回升,气候干旱.9.6~5.5cal.kaBP的中全新世湖区为典型的荒漠草原/草原植被,区域有效湿度明显增加,气温较高,为温暖时期.其中6.5~5.5cal.kaBP期间,研究区植被由荒漠草原/草原迅速转变为荒漠,有效湿度明显降低,同时温度升至最高,可能是一次千年尺度的高温干旱事件.5.5cal.kaBP以来的中-晚全新世,研究区呈现出典型的草原/草甸景观,有效湿度相对较高,温度大幅降低,气候温凉湿润,相对较为适宜.赛里木湖孢粉、炭屑记录的温度和湿度变化与区域其他湖泊记录对比的一致性表明,太阳辐射是造成区域温度变化的主要驱动因素,同时温度变化影响了区域的有效湿度变化.该地区早全新世气候干旱,中-晚全新世气候相对湿润的气候环境演化特征与季风影响区有着明显的差异.早全新世干旱是中纬度西风减弱和上风向蒸发减少的环流背景下局地温度高蒸发强烈的结果. 相似文献
4.
新疆艾比湖地区湖泊沉积记录的早全新世气候环境特征 总被引：29，自引：0，他引：29
通过干旱区封闭湖泊艾比湖沉积物的多环境代用指标分析, 重点对全新世早期气候环境演化特征进行了研究. 孢粉组合及地球化学指标表明, 研究时段(8.0 ~ 11.5 cal kaBP)温度总体偏低, 初期(11.5 ~ 10.6 cal kaBP) 温度较高且降水较多; 早全新世向中全新世转换时期(8.9 ~ 8.0 cal kaBP )气候波动显著. 尤其是, 3层泥炭沉积显示了艾比湖地区早全新世气候的强烈不稳定性. 泥炭的发育程度及其同位素、孢粉分析数据都暗示, 8.2 cal kaBP, 8.6 cal kaBP, 10.5 cal kaBP的气候状况具有显著的冷湿特征, 可视为早全新世的3次冷湿事件. 相似文献
5.
末次间冰期以来我国东部沙区的古季风变迁 总被引：25，自引：2，他引：25
根据130ka BP以来东部沙区的地质记录,将本区古季风划分为末次间冰期(130～70kaBP)夏季风为主时期、末次冰期(70～10kaBP)冬季风为主时期和冰后期(10kaBP至今)夏季风为主的不稳定时期3个演化时期,以及末次间冰期(120ka BP和100～95kaBP)冬季风增强期、末次冰期(59～21kaBP)夏季风增强期、冰后期早全新世(10～7.5kaBP)夏季风增强期、中全新世(7.5～4kaBP)夏季风鼎盛期和晚全新世(4kaBP至今)夏季风衰弱期等若干阶段。冬、夏季风的转换以突变为主。夏季风北界位置从末次间冰期的马鬃山-乌兰巴托退至末次冰期的黄土高原砂黄土带北界附近,复又进到全新世最佳期的山丹-雅布赖山一带,最后退到现代阴山北麓-呼伦贝尔一线,反映东亚季风环流的夏季风呈现波动减弱的趋势。影响季风变迁的因素复杂,特别是全新世期间的短周期波动应加强研究。 相似文献
6.
华北平原末次冰盛期以来典型时段古环境格局 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
重建典型时段区域气候和植被空间格局变化,是评估未来增温背景下生态环境变化和响应过程的重要基础.文章基于AMS 14C定年技术和孢粉分析,获得了华北平原白洋淀等6个剖面末次冰盛期以来的气候-植被变化历史.结合区内已有孢粉记录,重建了华北平原末次冰盛期和全新世暖期的古环境格局.结果显示,华北平原区域植被变化受气候条件、地貌景观和人类活动等因素共同影响:末次冰盛期,华北平原气候寒冷干旱,南部山地发育针阔混交林和落叶-常绿阔叶林,北部山地生长耐寒针叶林-针阔混交林,森林面积相对较小;平原南部生长中生或湿生草甸,北部发育温带草原-荒漠草原;滨海区陆架大面积出露,生长藜科为主的盐生植物.全新世暖期,华北平原气候温暖湿润,南部山地发育落叶阔叶林或落叶-常绿阔叶混交林,伴生有喜暖亚热带属种,北部山地生长落叶阔叶林,部分喜暖湿植物常有出现,森林面积相对增加;平原腹地草本植物仍占优势,森林面积较小且难以形成地带性森林景观;受海平面上升影响,滨海区原有盐生植被向内陆收缩;此外,这一时期华北平原人类活动范围扩大、农业生产频繁,对区内自然植被产生了一定影响.文章为中国北方古气候数值模拟、区域碳循环评估和未来增温背景下区域生态环境变化预测等提供了基础数据和科学依据. 相似文献
7.
通过对现代乌伦古湖附近出露的古湖相沉积剖面的AMS~(14)C测年,粒度、总有机碳、总有机氮以及碳酸盐等环境代用指标的分析及其与全新世钻孔沉积记录的对比研究,结果发现:乌伦古湖在MIS-3晚期的33600-22500 cal a BP以及冰后期至早中全新世的16500-6500 cal a BP期间,维持着湖相沉积环境,湖面约比现在湖面高40 m.33600-22500 cal a BP的MIS-3晚期,气候相对温暖,乌伦古湖呈现高湖面特征,湖泊沉积物来源以流水搬运为主;22500-16500 cal a BP的末次冰期冰盛期,气候寒冷干燥,湖泊沉积物来源以风力搬运为主;16500-6500 cal a BP的冰后期以及早、中全新世期间,气候回暖,湖泊沉积物主要来源于河流径流作用.6500-5500 cal a BP,受高温干旱事件的影响,湖面收缩、水位剧降,除沉积中心外的其它钻孔位置出现沉积中断.5500 cal a BP后气候转冷变湿,湖泊重新恢复到现在的状态.乌伦古湖MIS-3晚期以来的古湖相沉积环境变化及其反映的古气候万年尺度上的干湿变化与周边区域气候环境变化记录有很好的一致性,响应了区域环境变化和全球气候突变事件.季风和西风的强度消长变化及其引起的环流条件改变以及温度变化引起的蒸发效应可能是区域气候环境变化的主要原因.这一古湖相沉积记录的研究可为MIS-3晚期以来北疆地区的古湖泊演化以及长时间尺度上西风和季风环流相互关系及其影响区的气候环境演化提供地质证据. 相似文献
8.
东亚中全新世的气候模拟及其温度变化机制探讨 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
大量地质证据证实了东亚和北美中全新世(6 kaBP)全年和冬夏季气温高于现代.然而,国际上PMIP计划下18个模式的古气候模拟结果未能捕捉北半球大陆中低纬地区冬季升温的气候特征.这些古气候模拟的冬季降温与地质资料揭示的冬季升温存在着巨大差异,反映出仅仅在太阳辐射变化驱动下的古气候模拟存在重大缺陷. 使用含有陆面过程的全球9层大气环流谱模式(AGCM+SSiB),采用现代植被和中全新世植被预置的不同下垫面对6 kaBP气候及其植被影响进行了模拟试验.古植被强迫下的模拟结果表明,中全新世时东亚地区各季均出现升温.尤其是模拟的冬季增温与地质资料重建的气候特征接近,反映了除太阳辐射的变化外,植被的变化对东亚地区中全新世的增温有着重要作用.该模拟结果的意义在于:(1)用具有物理机制的数值化模型并采用实际下垫面边界条件,能够较好地模拟出中全新世气候特征;(2)从动力机制的角度揭示了中全新世气候与现代气候存在巨大差别的原因在于辐射变化和下垫面植被变化;(3)中全新世下垫面植被的改变引起的地表反射率变化使得东亚陆面与西太平洋表面的热力差异随季节发生变化,因而中全新世夏季风环流增强,而冬季风环流减弱,冷空气活动受到抑制,使得中国区域冬季温度增加, 形成暖冬气候特征. 相似文献
9.
《中国科学:地球科学》2017,(8)
理解过去生态系统对气候变化的响应是评估未来气候变化影响的关键.在全新世气候逐渐变化背景下,萨赫勒-撒哈拉生态系统经历了由萨瓦拉到荒漠的突变.这样的非线性响应现象是否具有普遍意义仍需深入研究.本研究基于38个高质量的化石孢粉记录,系统分析了全新世中亚地区植被与气候的关系.结果显示全新世中亚地区的植被发生了两次大的突变,一次在早全新世(突变Ⅰ,"建立式"突变),另一次在晚全新世(突变Ⅱ,"崩溃式"突变),全新世中期则较稳定.然而这些植被突变无法与任何已知的气候突变事件相关联,并且不同区域发生植被转型的时间表现出异步性,显示出与当地降水量变化密切相关.这些植被突变可归因于植被响应轨道驱动的气候渐变的阈值效应.早全新世在轨道驱动下降水量增加,较湿润的区域首先达到植被"建立"的阈值,而在较干旱的区域明显较晚才达到该阈值.与之相反,晚全新世时在轨道驱动下降水量降低,首先在较干旱的区域达到阈值,导致植被"崩溃",而在较湿润地区延后达到阈值.另外,4.2kyr BP左右的干旱事件以及人类活动干扰对植被的崩溃退化也起到了一定的作用.上述认识得到了现代孢粉-气候关系分析以及生态系统模拟结果的支持.这些结果暗示未来气候变化一旦达到阈值将导致干旱生态系统产生突变. 相似文献
10.
史前人类向青藏高原扩散的历史过程和可能驱动机制 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《中国科学:地球科学》2016,(8)
青藏高原史前人类的活动历史历来是国际学术界广泛关注的热点科学问题.近年来相关研究取得明显进展,提供了梳理史前人类向青藏高原扩散和定居的过程与驱动机制的可能.本文通过整理和总结在青藏高原已开展的考古工作,提出史前人类主要通过河湟谷地扩散到青藏高原东北部再进一步扩散到整个青藏高原,其扩散过程可概括为四个阶段,分别为末次冰消期的旧石器时代晚期(距今1.5~1.16万年)、全新世早中期的中石器时代(距今11600~6000年)、全新世中晚期的新石器时代(距今6000~4000年)和全新世晚期的青铜时代(距今4000~2300年),而曾报道的青藏高原末次盛冰期及其以前的旧石器遗址的年代需要重新厘定.末次冰消期的人类扩散主要与盛冰期之后的气候转暖转湿事件和细石器文化的盛行有关,全新世早中期的扩散则受到温暖湿润的气候条件的驱动和黄土高原粟作农业发展的压迫,这两个时段高原上的史前人类均以季节性的狩猎采集为主;黄土高原粟作农业的传播推动史前人类于距今6000~4000年进入青藏高原东北和东南部的低海拔河谷地带并定居,从事以粟作农业为主的经济活动,而麦作农业的传入推动史前人类距今3600年前开始常年定居到青藏高原高海拔地区. 相似文献
11.
《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2007,253(1-2):67-82
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of planktic foraminifera from a sediment core in the western Pacific Ocean. At the centennial scale, variations in the stable oxygen isotope signal (δ18O) are thought be a representation of ENSO variability, although an imprint of local conditions cannot be entirely excluded. The record for the early Holocene (10.3–6 ka BP) shows, in comparison with the mid- to late Holocene, small amplitude variations in the δ18O record of up to 0.3‰ indicating relatively stable and warm sea surface conditions. The mid- to late Holocene (6–2 ka BP) exemplified higher variability in δ18O and thus in oceanic IPWP conditions. Climatically, we interpret this change (5.5–4.2 ka BP) as a phenomenon induced by variability in frequency and/or intensity changes of El Niño. In the period 4.2–2 ka BP we identified several periods, centred on 1.9, 2.1, 2.7, 3.3, 3.7 and 4.2 ka BP, with in general heavy δ18O values. During these periods, the IPWP was relocated to a more eastward position, enhancing the susceptibility for El Niño-like conditions at the core site. Over the last 2000 yr precipitation increased in the area as a response to an increase in Asian monsoon strength, resulting in a freshening of the surface waters. This study corroborates previous findings that the present-day ENSO activity started around 5.5 ka BP. 相似文献
12.
Analysing the influences of ENSO and PDO on water discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea 
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下载免费PDF全文 The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are two important climate oscillations that affect hydrological processes at global and regional scales. However, few studies have attempted to identify their single and combined influences on water discharge variability at multiple timescales. In this study, we examine temporal variation in water discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea and explore the influence of the ENSO and the PDO on multiscale variations in water discharge over the last century. The results of the wavelet transform analysis of the water discharge series show significant periodic variations at the interannual timescale of 2 to 8 years and the decadal timescale of 15 to 17 years. Water discharge tended to be higher during the La Niña–PDO cold phase and lower during the El Niño–PDO warm phase. The results of the cross wavelet spectrum and wavelet coherence analyses confirm the relationship between the interannual (i.e., 2 to 8 years) and decadal (i.e., 15 to 17 years) periodicities in water discharge with the ENSO and the PDO, respectively. As an important large‐scale climate background, the PDO can modulate the influence of the ENSO on water discharge variability. In general, the warm PDO enhances the influence of El Niño events, and the cold PDO enhances the influence of La Niña events. Our study is helpful in understanding the influencing mechanism of climate change on hydrological processes and provides an important scientific guideline for water resource prediction and management. 相似文献
13.
XU Jian 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(4):791-801
The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were reconstructed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since ～16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). With regard to thermocline temperature (TT), it increased until ～11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then remained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ～6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow. 相似文献
14.
Yuanyuan You Jianyu Liu Yongqiang Zhang Hylke E. Beck Xihui Gu Dongdong Kong 《水文研究》2021,35(10):e14367
Runoff signatures, including low flow, high flow, mean flow and flow variability, have important implications on the environment and society, predominantly through drought, flooding and water resources. Yet, the response of runoff signatures has not been previously investigated at the global scale, and the influencing mechanisms are largely unclear. Hence, this study makes a global assessment of runoff signature responses to the El Niño and La Niña phases using daily streamflow observations from 8217 gauging stations during 1960–2015. Based on the Granger causality test, we found that ~15% of the hydrological stations of multiple runoff signatures show a significant causal relationship with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). The quantiles of all runoff signatures were larger during the El Niño phase than during the La Niña phase, implying that the entire flow distribution tends to shift upward during El Niño and downward during La Niña. In addition, El Niño has different effects on low and high flows: it tends to increase the low and mean flow signatures but reduces the high flow and flow variability signatures. In contrast, La Niña generally reduces all runoff signatures. We highlight that the impacts of ENSO on streamflow signatures are manifested by its effects on precipitation (P), potential evaporation (PET) and leaf area index (LAI) through ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation changes. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive picture of runoff signature responses to ENSO, with valuable insights for water resources management and flood and drought disaster mitigation. 相似文献
15.
Abstract It is known that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon induces marked climate variability across many parts of the world. However, in seeking useful relationships between ENSO and climate, several indices are available. In addition to the choice of index, previous studies assessing ENSO effects have employed a range of different methods to classify periods as El Niño, La Niña or Neutral. It is therefore clear that significant subjectivity exists in the adoption of ENSO classification schemes. In this study, several ENSO classification methods are applied to a range of ENSO indices. Each method-index combination is investigated to determine which provides the strongest relationship with rainfall and runoff in the Williams River catchment, New South Wales, Australia. The results demonstrate substantial differences between the methods and indices. The Multivariate ENSO Index (or MEI) is found to provide the best classification irrespective of method. The potential for forecasting ENSO-related effects on rainfall, runoff and river abstractions is then investigated. A “rise rule” to account for dynamic ENSO trends is also assessed. Strong relationships were found to exist with runoff (rainfall) up to nine (eight) months in advance of the Summer/autumn period. Implications for improved forecasting of potential river abstractions are apparent. 相似文献
16.
In this work, we analyzed time-series and trends of the tropical belt edges and widths with three methods based on the tropopause using new global positioning system radio occultation(GPS RO) data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate(COSMIC) mission for September 2006–February 2014. The results from the three methods agreed well with previous studies and new features were found. To avoid the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO) influence, we applied a simple multiple linear regression model to the monthly anomalies to obtain the tropical belt edges and width trends. During the study, we found equatorward movements of the tropical belt edges on both hemispheres. The narrowing of the tropical belt mainly occurred in the Pacific Ocean. We also found that the deseasonalized monthly anomalies of the tropical belt width were closely related with the ENSO and QBO. The tropical belt at a height of 15 km was mostly closely related with the ENSO. The correlations between the QBO and the tropical belt were consistent for the three methods. 相似文献
17.
Low‐frequency modulation and trend of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the northern to centre Peruvian Pacific coast 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Luc Bourrel Pedro Rau Boris Dewitte David Labat Waldo Lavado Aude Coutaud Andrea Vera Abigail Alvarado Julio Ordoñez 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1252-1266
The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响,特别是2005—2017年间两次强ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测,捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高,这为研究2005—2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现:长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性,与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70,较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强,2010/11 La Nina和2015/16 El Nino两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Nina期间,长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4—5月达到谷值,而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Nino期间,长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中,2015年秋冬季(2015年9月至2016年1月)陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Nino同期影响的结果;2016年春季(4—5月)陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致;2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关. 相似文献
19.
Shengnan Ni Jianli Chen Clark R. Wilson Jin Li Xiaogong Hu Rong Fu 《Surveys in Geophysics》2018,39(1):1-22
Improved data quality of extended record of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravity solutions enables better understanding of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. Connections of TWS and climate change are critical to investigate regional and global water cycles. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of global connections between interannual TWS changes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, using multiple sources of data, including GRACE measurements, land surface model (LSM) predictions and precipitation observations. We use cross-correlation and coherence spectrum analysis to examine global connections between interannual TWS changes and the Niño 3.4 index, and select four river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Colorado, and Lena) for more detailed analysis. The results indicate that interannual TWS changes are strongly correlated with ENSO over much of the globe, with maximum cross-correlation coefficients up to ~0.70, well above the 95% significance level (~0.29) derived by the Monte Carlo experiments. The strongest correlations are found in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in the Amazon, Orinoco, and La Plata basins. While both GRACE and LSM TWS estimates show reasonably good correlations with ENSO and generally consistent spatial correlation patterns, notably higher correlations are found between GRACE TWS and ENSO. The existence of significant correlations in middle–high latitudes shows the large-scale impact of ENSO on the global water cycle. 相似文献