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1.
近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响,特别是2005—2017年间两次强ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测,捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高,这为研究2005—2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现:长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性,与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70,较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强,2010/11 La Nina和2015/16 El Nino两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Nina期间,长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4—5月达到谷值,而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Nino期间,长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中,2015年秋冬季(2015年9月至2016年1月)陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Nino同期影响的结果;2016年春季(4—5月)陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致;2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关. 相似文献
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利用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料以及Hadley中心海表温度资料,针对北太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)的完整系统,通过分析超前于ENSO事件的海平面副高年际异常特征及其对ENSO事件的触发作用以及ENSO事件对500 hPa副高和海平面副高的滞后影响,结果表明了北太平洋副热带高压年际变异和ENSO循环之间存在选择性相互作用.即在大多数情况下,一方面,前期海平面副高减弱会导致热带西太平洋表面西风异常,通过海洋平流过程触发El Nino事件在夏季发生发展,在秋冬季成熟; 而另一方面,El Nino事件在秋冬季发展成熟后,增强了赤道中太平洋的对流性热源,通过对异常热源的动力响应,同期和次年夏季500 hPa副高增强,又通过增强的Hadley环流作用,副热带地区下沉运动增强,从而使得次年夏季海平面副高增强,增强的海平面副高又有利于触发下一个La Nina事件.副高年际变异和ENSO循环之间相互作用的选择性主要取决于副高异常是否接近于赤道以及ENSO事件本身的持续性.这种相互作用有利于在热带太平洋海气系统产生准两年振荡. 相似文献
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利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,研究了南半球夏季（12~2月）纬向平均环流的垂直结构异常及其与南极涛动（AAO）和ENSO的联系.结果表明,南半球夏季纬向平均［u］的异常分布的主要模态（EOF1）显示出极区、50°S~70°S、以及50°S以北的区间内“三极”型振荡.EOF1 既反映了AAO的特征又与ENSO有着显著的关系.由于AAO指数与Nino3区指数之间存在着统计相关,为进一步弄清AAO和ENSO在南半球纬向平均气流变动的相关分量及其结构,利用Nino3区指数使用一元回归方法滤除ENSO影响,再对剩下的部分作EOF分解,得到了独立于ENSO的纬向平均［u］的第一模态AEOF1.相关分析表明AEOF1为与AAO相对应的纬向平均［u］异常的分布.用南半球纬向平均［u］去掉其与AAO相联系的模态AEOF1,进行EOF分解得到的第一模SEOF1,其与Nino3 区指数的相关高达0.9.由此给出了纬向平均气流的变动与ENSO无关的模态和与ENSO有关的模态.时间变化分析表明,近30年中,除了年代际变化和3~7年的年际变化外,纬向平均的纬向基本气流尚有极地西风减弱、副极地西风加强、副热带西风减弱、热带东风加强的长期趋势. 相似文献
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将1951～2004年期间的12次El Nino事件分为强、中等、较弱和弱4类,结果发现,强和较弱El Nino衰减进入La Nina,但是中等和弱El Nino衰减进入平常态.因此,El Nino的衰减结果与自身强度之间存在密切的非线性关系.进一步的研究表明,负异常信号自西太平洋向中东太平洋的东传主导了强El Nino事件向La Nina的转变过程,其具体动力过程类似于西太平洋振子理论.热带西北太平洋（WNP）大气异常反气旋在强El Nino位相转变中起核心作用,它的维持和缓慢东移是赤道东风异常维持和发展的原因,而后者通过激发Kelvin波导致了ENSO从El Nino向La Nina的转变. 相似文献
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We use conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)to investigate the optimal precursory disturbances in the ZebiakCane El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)model.The conditions of the CNOP-type precursors are highly likely to evolve into El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model.By exploring the dynamic behaviors of these nonlinear El Nino events caused by the CNOP-type precursors,we find that they,as expected,tend to phase-lock to the annual cycles in the Zebiak-Cane model,with the SSTA peak at the end of a calendar year.However,El Nino events with CNOPs as initial anomalies in the linearized Zebiak-Cane model are inclined to phase-lock earlier than nonlinear El Nino events despite the existence of annual cycles in the model.It is clear that nonlinearities play an important role in El Nino’s phase-locking.In particular,nonlinear temperature advection increases anomalous zonal SST differences and anomalous westerlies,which weakens anomalous upwelling and acts on the increasing anomalous vertical temperature difference and,as a result,enhances El Nino and then delays the peak SSTA.Finally,we demonstrate that nonlinear temperature advection,together with the effect of the annual cycle,causes El Nino events to peak at the end of the calendar year. 相似文献
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在热带太平洋,观测数据表明海表叶绿素(Chl)表现出年际尺度变率和由热带不稳定波(TIW)引发的中小尺度扰动这两者的共存现象;两者通过海洋生物引发的加热(OBH)反馈对ENSO造成的联合影响尚未得到充分的表征和理解.本文利用一个混合型大气-海洋物理-生物地球化学耦合模式(HCM AOPB)来量化年际和TIW尺度上Chl扰动对ENSO的单独以及联合调制影响. HCM敏感性试验结果证实了两者对ENSO振幅存在相反的作用,其中大尺度Chl年际变率造成的海洋生物-气候反馈效应通过其对上层海洋层结和垂向混合的影响来减弱ENSO,而TIW尺度的Chl扰动则倾向于增强ENSO.气候模式中ENSO的模拟敏感地依赖于对不同尺度上Chl效应的表征方式,因此有必要在气候模式模拟中充分地考虑不同尺度上Chl引发的气候效应.本文揭示了热带太平洋Chl效应是气候模式中ENSO模拟的一个偏差源,可为不同尺度上热带太平洋气候系统与海洋生态系统间相互作用提供新的见解.这些结果也揭示了ENSO调制的复杂性:即热带太平洋海洋生物地球化学过程相关的年际和TIW尺度上的Chl扰动与物理过程间的相互作用可对ENSO产生协同效应. 相似文献
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厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与赤道远西太平洋准两年周期振荡之间相互作用的概念模式 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
建立了一个反映厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)与热带远西太平洋准两年振荡(QBOWP)相互作用最基本物理过程的新概念模式. 在此概念模式中, QBOWP对ENSO的影响通过两种途径: (1) 沿赤道太平洋海洋Kelvin波和 (2) 大气的Walker环流; 而ENSO对QBOWP的影响则可通过大气的Walker环流异常来实现. 对该模式结果的分析诊断表明: 在ENSO与QBOWP相互作用过程中, 大气桥(Walker环流)的作用比海洋桥(沿赤道太平洋的Kelvin波)更重要; 通过QBOWP与ENSO的相互作用, 一个3~5年周期的ENSO振荡可以变为准两年振荡, 而赤道远西太平洋年际变化的主要周期也会变长; 热带太平洋大气-海洋耦合系统的多时间尺度的年际变化可以通过ENSO与QBOWP的相互作用来实现. 相似文献
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本文使用西北太平洋累积气旋能量(ACE)月尺度异常序列,对850 hPa相对涡度、地表纬向风、柱水汽含量、OLR、降水和SST等大尺度环境场变量进行时滞回归分析,讨论了月尺度TC活动对大尺度环境场的影响及其与周尺度的区别和联系.结果表明:(1)月尺度ACE回归出的纬向风无论是强度还是范围都要明显大于周尺度ACE回归结果,TC的频繁发生,尤其是强度大且持续时间长的近赤道TC,对于激发或加强TC活动区域南侧的低纬地区西风异常有一定的积极作用,持续并且强度较大的西风异常可能导致西风的爆发,而西风爆发会在很大程度上影响ENSO事件的发生和演变.(2)在月尺度上,OLR、柱水汽含量、降水和SST等物理量均呈现出较为明显的E1Nino型分布,而在周尺度上,仅SST呈现出明显的El Nino型分布,这在一定程度上反映了月尺度TC活动和太平洋ENSO信号之间存在更密切的关联.(3)在TC发生后1-2月,TC的主要生成区域柱水汽含量减少、OLR增大,这会在一定程度上降低该区域生成TC的潜能.虽然TC所引起SST降低的空间尺度很小,但其通过大气和海洋的传导会扩大到更大尺度上,由于这种反馈具有一定的滞后性,所以月尺度TC对大尺度环境场影响的信号更为显著. 相似文献
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《地球物理学报》2017,(9)
本文利用1948—2010年Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)NOAH陆面模式资料、GPCC月平均降水资料和NCAR/NCEP全球月平均再分析资料,采用滤波、距平合成和线性相关等方法,分析了El Nino成熟位相冬季欧亚大陆积雪异常的分布特征,研究了关键区积雪融化对后期春、夏季土壤湿度、土壤温度以及大气环流与降水的影响,揭示了El Nino事件通过关键区积雪储存其强迫信号并影响东亚夏季气候异常的机制和过程.主要结论如下:El Nino成熟阶段冬季伊朗高原、巴尔喀什湖东北部和青藏高原南麓区域是雪深异常的三个关键区,这些区域的雪深、雪融和土壤湿度有明显的正相关;这三个关键区雪深异常通过春季融雪将冬季El Nino信号传递给春、夏季局地土壤湿度,通过减少感热通量和增加潜热通量对大气环流产生影响;春末夏初伊朗高原土壤湿度异常对东亚夏季气候异常的影响最大,其引起的降水异常与El Nino次年夏季降水异常分布基本一致,春夏季青藏高原南麓和巴尔喀什湖附近土壤湿度也都明显增加,均会对中国华北降水增加有显著正贡献.总之,在利用El Nino事件研究和预测东亚夏季气候异常时,还应考虑关键区雪深异常对El Nino信号的存储和调制作用. 相似文献
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淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
径流变化特征及成因研究对于农业灌溉、流域水资源配置与管理等具有重要理论与现实意义,而淮河流域是我国重要农业区,因而淮河流域径流过程特征及机理研究更突显其重要性.利用非参数Mann-Kendall趋势检验和小波转换等方法系统分析了淮河中上游息县、王家坝和蒋家集等9个水文站点径流资料,分析淮河流域中上游径流年内分配、年际变化、径流趋势、突变特征及周期变化等径流过程变化特征,并探讨了径流变化特征的成因.研究发现:(1)淮河中上游径流量主要集中于5-9月,约占年径流总量的70.37%,变差系数介于0.16~0.85之间,径流年际极值比则介于1.7~23.9之间,径流年际变化剧烈;(2)淮河中上游径流量整体呈下降趋势,尤其是4-5月径流下降趋势显著,季节变化不明显;(3)各站点年径流量在2000s呈显著周期变化,班台、王家坝、鲁台子和蚌埠站在该尺度上存在2.0~3.4 a尺度的小周期,息县、潢川和蒋家集站处于高能区.季节和汛期与非汛期的显著周期集中出现在1960s、1980s和2000s,1960s周期主要为2~8a.(4)潢川站年径流量对气候因子的响应最为明显,其对混合ENSO指数和太平洋中高纬年代际振荡指数(PDO)的响应分别通过了95%和99%的显著性检验.PDO对各站点月径流的直接影响最为显著,且主要集中在6月份,多呈显著负相关关系,以班台站最为显著,分别在1、4和6月通过了95%的显著性检验.南方涛动指数、北大西洋涛动指数和Nino3.4区海表温度距平指数(Nino3.4)对研究区月径流量的响应存在显著滞后性,Nino3.4对研究区月径流量滞后期的影响主要发生在潢川和蒋家集站,而北极涛动指数和PDO指数无滞后性响应. 相似文献
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基于NCEP/NCAR提供的1958～1995年全球月平均海温距平场再分析资料,采用动力系统反演思想和遗传算法途径,进行了El Nino/La Nina指数的动力预报模型的参数优化和模型反演,从上述海温资料中重构了Nino3海温距平指数的非线性动力模型.模型预报试验结果表明,遗传算法具有的全局搜索和并行计算优势能够客观、有效地反演海温指数的动力预报模型,对Nino3海温指数和El Nino/La Nina事件进行较为客观准确的预测,为El Nino/La Nina预测提供有益的研究参考. 相似文献
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Possible effect of ENSO on annual sediment discharge of debris flows in the Jiangjia Ravine based on Morlet wavelet transforms 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The multi-time-scale structures of an annual sediment discharge series of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the Southern Oscillation index are analysed using the method of Morlet wavelet transformations. The possible effects of E1 Nirio episodes on the annual sediment discharge are discussed by comparing the period variations of ENSO and the discharge. The results show that the annual sediment discharge series of debris flow is related to E1 Nifio episodes. Generally, the annual sediment discharge of debris flow is less than usual during an E1 Nifio episode and debris flow is less active. On the contrary, the annual sediment discharge of debris flows is greater than usual during a La Nifia episode and debris flows are more frequent. There is a relationship between the annual sediment discharges of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the summer Southern Oscillation index, with both having quasi-periodic variations of 2 and 5-6 years. 相似文献
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The monthly values of the southern atmospheric oscillation indices (SOI), the corresponding values of the Nino-3.4 index, the data on the onsets of intense volcanic eruptions from 1870 to 2002, the daily values of the Ap and AE indices and the IMF B z component, and the data on cloudiness and wind characteristics at 14 Antarctic stations have been considered. The beginning of the warm El Nino current is observed after an increase in the amplitude of the Ap magnetic indices, which continues for more than five months. The beginning of the cold period of the La Nina southern atmospheric oscillation is as a rule related to a decrease in Ap. A change in atmospheric transparency caused by volcanic eruptions is often followed by the beginning of the cold period of the southern atmospheric oscillation (ENSO). A change in the wind system in the Antarctic Regions, related to a change in the temperature balance caused by variations in the solar wind parameters in the winter season, promotes a short-term disturbance of the circumpolar vortex and the beginning of the El Nino warm period. 相似文献
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Some previous global and regional studies have indicated teleconnection between the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and Turkish climate and hydrologic variables; however, they failed to suggest a strong correlation structure. In this study, categorised Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index (MEI) series were used to examine the far‐reaching effects of the SO on temperature, precipitation and streamflow patterns in Turkey. These SO indicators were categorised into five subgroups according to their empirical distributions. Correlations between the categorised SO indicators and three analysis variables were computed using the Spearman's rho from lag‐0 to lag‐4. Significance of calculated correlations was tested at the 0·01 level for station‐based analysis and at the 0·05 level for regional analysis. Temperature records demonstrated significant correlations with the categorised SOI and MEI in nearly half of the entire stations. For some categories, precipitation and streamflow were found to be correlated with the SO indicators in some stations mainly in western Turkey. Regional analyses of temperature and precipitation revealed a clear and strong correlation structure with the categorised SO indicators on a large portion of Turkey. This was not concluded by the earlier pertinent studies. Besides, this study showed that significant correlations were obtained not only for the SO extreme phases (namely, El Nino and La Nina) but also for neutral and moderate phases of the SO. Plausible explanations for the observed teleconnection are presented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A five year Environmental Monitoring Programme (EMP) was set up in east-Australian coastal waters to determine the environmental effects of diverting most of Sydney's primary treated sewage from cliff face outfalls to diffuser outfall systems some 3 km offshore in 60–80 m of water. Many component EMP studies adopted Before and After Control Impact (BACI and ‘beyond BACI’) designs, to isolate outfall impacts on the marine ecosystem from background variability. Although seasonal patterns dominated ambient conditions in coastal waters, long-term climatic signals, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were apparent during the EMP. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) indicated the two year post-commissioning study period of 1991–1993 was dominated by an El Nino episode, while the 1989–1990 pre-commissioning period experienced a La Nina episode. Anomalous rainfall conditions and ocean temperature structure were associated with these episodes with respect to long-term records. Rainfall patterns suggested that the pre-commissioning period experienced high rainfall causing an increased incidence of stormwater pollution in coastal waters. Effects of the lower rain levels during post-commissioning phase were, however, outweighed by the dramatic improvements due to the commissioning of the deepwater outfalls. Decreased thermal stratification was experienced during the winter months of the 1992–1993 El Nino episode, and promoted increased dilutions associated with a greater frequency in sewage plume surfacing. There was, however, no apparent short-term effect of this change in plume behaviour on the marine environment as measured by EMP indicators. 相似文献