共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 328 毫秒
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将1951～2004年期间的12次El Nino事件分为强、中等、较弱和弱4类,结果发现,强和较弱El Nino衰减进入La Nina,但是中等和弱El Nino衰减进入平常态.因此,El Nino的衰减结果与自身强度之间存在密切的非线性关系.进一步的研究表明,负异常信号自西太平洋向中东太平洋的东传主导了强El Nino事件向La Nina的转变过程,其具体动力过程类似于西太平洋振子理论.热带西北太平洋（WNP）大气异常反气旋在强El Nino位相转变中起核心作用,它的维持和缓慢东移是赤道东风异常维持和发展的原因,而后者通过激发Kelvin波导致了ENSO从El Nino向La Nina的转变. 相似文献
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基于年代际突变分量的东亚夏季降水动力-统计预报方案研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于1983~2011年CMAP降水数据分析,揭示东亚及其近海地区(简称东亚)的夏季降水距平在1999年前后由"+-+"型分布(由北至南)调整为"-+-"型分布,且这种年代际变化主要体现在EOF第3模态中;而在国家气候中心海气耦合模式(BCC_CGCM)回报和预报资料中,1999年前后则由"+-+-"分布型(由北至南)调整为"-+-+"型,即BCC_CGCM对降水年代际分布的预报与实况有较大差别.同时,结合EOF年代际突变分量给出了全球海温场与东亚夏季降水年代际变化有显著联系的关键海区,分析了BCC_CGCM对关键区海温的预报能力及对应的东亚夏季降水预报效果的差异,验证了基于关键区海温指数对改进模式预报结果的可能性.在此基础上,给出了基于年代际突变分量的东亚夏季降水动力-统计预报方案研究,并进行独立样本回报.结果表明,基于V区海温指数订正结果的距平相关系数(ACC)达到了0.25,距平符号一致率(ACR)达到61%,7个区域订正结果平均的ACC为0.03和ACR为51%,较BCC_CGCM模式结果的-0.01和49%均有一定的改进;且订正后1999年前后两个时段降水距平的空间分布和纬圈平均演变均体现了降水型由"+-+"向"-+-"调整的特征.因此,基于海温关键区指数的动力-统计相结合的预报方案能够增加模式对东亚夏季降水的季节预报结果中的年代际变化信息. 相似文献
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近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响,特别是2005—2017年间两次强ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测,捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高,这为研究2005—2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现:长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性,与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70,较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强,2010/11 La Nina和2015/16 El Nino两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Nina期间,长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4—5月达到谷值,而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Nino期间,长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中,2015年秋冬季(2015年9月至2016年1月)陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Nino同期影响的结果;2016年春季(4—5月)陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致;2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关. 相似文献
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海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压脊面演变影响的机制研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据欧洲中期数值预报中心提供的大气环流资料和NOAA提供的海温资料, 应用改进的低阶谱模式方法研究了海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压脊面演变影响的物理机制. 结果表明, 在El Niño型海温强迫下, 大气环流内部动力过程中的大尺度波波和波流相互作用较弱. 随着外部热源强迫从冬季型向夏季型推进, 西太平洋副热带高压脊面北进不明显, 使得夏季西太平洋副热带高压脊面相对偏南. 在La Niña型海温强迫下, 大气环流内部动力过程中的大尺度波波和波流相互作用明显. 随着外源强迫从冬季型向夏季型转变, 西太平洋副热带高压脊面将随之向北移动19个纬度左右, 使得夏季西太平洋副热带高压脊面偏北; 且北移到达一定纬度后, 西太平洋副热带高压脊面表现出较为显著的30~60 d季节内南北振荡, 振幅在4°~7°之间.不同海温异常型所导致的大气内部动力过程差异是造成西太平洋副热带高压脊面年际变化的重要原因之一. 相似文献
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《地球物理学报》2017,(9)
本文利用1948—2010年Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS)NOAH陆面模式资料、GPCC月平均降水资料和NCAR/NCEP全球月平均再分析资料,采用滤波、距平合成和线性相关等方法,分析了El Nino成熟位相冬季欧亚大陆积雪异常的分布特征,研究了关键区积雪融化对后期春、夏季土壤湿度、土壤温度以及大气环流与降水的影响,揭示了El Nino事件通过关键区积雪储存其强迫信号并影响东亚夏季气候异常的机制和过程.主要结论如下:El Nino成熟阶段冬季伊朗高原、巴尔喀什湖东北部和青藏高原南麓区域是雪深异常的三个关键区,这些区域的雪深、雪融和土壤湿度有明显的正相关;这三个关键区雪深异常通过春季融雪将冬季El Nino信号传递给春、夏季局地土壤湿度,通过减少感热通量和增加潜热通量对大气环流产生影响;春末夏初伊朗高原土壤湿度异常对东亚夏季气候异常的影响最大,其引起的降水异常与El Nino次年夏季降水异常分布基本一致,春夏季青藏高原南麓和巴尔喀什湖附近土壤湿度也都明显增加,均会对中国华北降水增加有显著正贡献.总之,在利用El Nino事件研究和预测东亚夏季气候异常时,还应考虑关键区雪深异常对El Nino信号的存储和调制作用. 相似文献
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利用NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料以及Hadley中心海表温度资料,针对北太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)的完整系统,通过分析超前于ENSO事件的海平面副高年际异常特征及其对ENSO事件的触发作用以及ENSO事件对500 hPa副高和海平面副高的滞后影响,结果表明了北太平洋副热带高压年际变异和ENSO循环之间存在选择性相互作用.即在大多数情况下,一方面,前期海平面副高减弱会导致热带西太平洋表面西风异常,通过海洋平流过程触发El Nino事件在夏季发生发展,在秋冬季成熟; 而另一方面,El Nino事件在秋冬季发展成熟后,增强了赤道中太平洋的对流性热源,通过对异常热源的动力响应,同期和次年夏季500 hPa副高增强,又通过增强的Hadley环流作用,副热带地区下沉运动增强,从而使得次年夏季海平面副高增强,增强的海平面副高又有利于触发下一个La Nina事件.副高年际变异和ENSO循环之间相互作用的选择性主要取决于副高异常是否接近于赤道以及ENSO事件本身的持续性.这种相互作用有利于在热带太平洋海气系统产生准两年振荡. 相似文献
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利用全球谱模式T106L19和增长模繁殖法,分别在气候海温和预测海温强迫下,进行了动力延伸集合预报试验.基于方差分析思想,利用集合预报结果,定义和计算了初值影响指数、海温强迫影响指数、潜在可预报性指数以及波动活动指数.通过分析四个指数,揭示了初值和海温强迫对延伸期可预报性时空分布以及潜在可预报性的影响,并探讨了其影响机理.结果表明：初值影响指数分布具有地域和季节的差异,初值的影响在中高纬度地区大于热带地区;相同季节,海温强迫影响指数分布与初值影响指数分布相似;潜在可预报性指数呈带状分布,大值集中在热带地区,且在低纬度地区,高层的潜在可预报性大于低层;初值和海温强迫对延伸期可预报性时空分布的影响,依赖于大气环流形势,初值和海温强迫影响的显著区正是大气长波的活跃区和西风急流区,急流区的强风切变为长波活动提供了斜压不稳定能量,而长波的发展调控着初值和海温强迫的影响,这说明延伸期的可预报性具有明显的流依赖性,大气外强迫的作用也与大气内部的动力过程密切相关. 相似文献
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基于近8年卫星观测的全球闪电资料,对中国东南部和中南半岛各季节闪电密度距平场进行EOF分析发现,在这一El Nino事件期间,与NINO3区海表温度正距平升高的同时,1997年春季该地区的闪电活动就出现了显著的正异常,并一直持续到次年春季结束,各季度的正异常区闪电密度距平百分率依次是89%,30%,45%,498%和55%,其中冬季变化幅度最大;正异常区在冬、春季位于中国南部及其沿海地区,而在夏、秋季位于中南半岛南部及泰国湾.与正常年份相比,各季闪电密度正距平中心位置显著偏西,特别是冬、春季同时偏北.另外,中国南部地区的闪电密度和对流性降水量及高CAPE日数三项距平百分比的年际变化分析表明,正异常区和黑潮主干区这三项的距平百分比之间两两相关;在三项中,闪电密度的相对变化率最大,闪电活动对ElNino事件的响应最灵敏.但是,黑潮主干海域、青藏高原和西北、华北-东北等地区的闪电活动对El Nino事件的响应情况更为复杂和多样化. 相似文献
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We use conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)to investigate the optimal precursory disturbances in the ZebiakCane El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)model.The conditions of the CNOP-type precursors are highly likely to evolve into El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model.By exploring the dynamic behaviors of these nonlinear El Nino events caused by the CNOP-type precursors,we find that they,as expected,tend to phase-lock to the annual cycles in the Zebiak-Cane model,with the SSTA peak at the end of a calendar year.However,El Nino events with CNOPs as initial anomalies in the linearized Zebiak-Cane model are inclined to phase-lock earlier than nonlinear El Nino events despite the existence of annual cycles in the model.It is clear that nonlinearities play an important role in El Nino’s phase-locking.In particular,nonlinear temperature advection increases anomalous zonal SST differences and anomalous westerlies,which weakens anomalous upwelling and acts on the increasing anomalous vertical temperature difference and,as a result,enhances El Nino and then delays the peak SSTA.Finally,we demonstrate that nonlinear temperature advection,together with the effect of the annual cycle,causes El Nino events to peak at the end of the calendar year. 相似文献
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Possible effect of ENSO on annual sediment discharge of debris flows in the Jiangjia Ravine based on Morlet wavelet transforms 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The multi-time-scale structures of an annual sediment discharge series of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the Southern Oscillation index are analysed using the method of Morlet wavelet transformations. The possible effects of E1 Nirio episodes on the annual sediment discharge are discussed by comparing the period variations of ENSO and the discharge. The results show that the annual sediment discharge series of debris flow is related to E1 Nifio episodes. Generally, the annual sediment discharge of debris flow is less than usual during an E1 Nifio episode and debris flow is less active. On the contrary, the annual sediment discharge of debris flows is greater than usual during a La Nifia episode and debris flows are more frequent. There is a relationship between the annual sediment discharges of debris flow in the Jiangjia Ravine and the summer Southern Oscillation index, with both having quasi-periodic variations of 2 and 5-6 years. 相似文献
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Variability of the subsurface temperature, current, and heat content in the tropical Pacific Ocean has been extracted in association with the two dominant modes of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA): the low-frequency mode and the biennial mode. In a recent paper, these two modes were identified as the major modes of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The low-frequency mode, which explains about 36% of the total SSTA variability, represents the dominant component of SSTA variability in the tropical Pacific, and is associated not with a fast physical evolution but with a slow stochastic undulation. The biennial mode, which is the second dominant component and explains about 12% of the total variability exhibits, on the other hand, a strong physical evolution. The space–time patterns of the subsurface variability were derived from an assimilated data set via a cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOF) analysis and the regression of the resulting principal component (PC) time series on the target PC time series of the surface modes. Extracted space–time patterns describe the detailed evolution of the physical changes in the upper ocean of the tropical Pacific that are associated with the corresponding surface modes. Specifically, they clearly show the surface and subsurface connection of the physical changes during ENSO events, and the role of equatorial waves in the manifestation of physical changes at the surface. The derived patterns of heat content, subsurface temperature, and zonal current anomalies realistically depict the detailed temporal changes of those variables and are consistent with our understanding of the physics in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The biennial mode appears to depict faithfully the phase progression of El Niño and La Niña. The propagation of equatorial Kelvin waves along the thermocline is clearly visible during El Niño and La Niña events in the cyclostationary representation of the physical modes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Although the low-frequency mode explains three times more SSTA variability than the biennial mode, the former does not induce strong equatorial wave activity. This observation is significant considering that both El Niño or La Niña are often viewed simply in terms of a significant SST change in the tropical Pacific. The results of the present study indicate: (1) that the two ENSO modes represent significantly different physical evolutions; (2) that the amount of SST warming or cooling does not dictate the physical evolution of ENSO; and (3) that the two modes play essentially different dynamical roles including the generation of equatorial waves.Responsible Editor: John Wilkin 相似文献
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Some previous global and regional studies have indicated teleconnection between the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and Turkish climate and hydrologic variables; however, they failed to suggest a strong correlation structure. In this study, categorised Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index (MEI) series were used to examine the far‐reaching effects of the SO on temperature, precipitation and streamflow patterns in Turkey. These SO indicators were categorised into five subgroups according to their empirical distributions. Correlations between the categorised SO indicators and three analysis variables were computed using the Spearman's rho from lag‐0 to lag‐4. Significance of calculated correlations was tested at the 0·01 level for station‐based analysis and at the 0·05 level for regional analysis. Temperature records demonstrated significant correlations with the categorised SOI and MEI in nearly half of the entire stations. For some categories, precipitation and streamflow were found to be correlated with the SO indicators in some stations mainly in western Turkey. Regional analyses of temperature and precipitation revealed a clear and strong correlation structure with the categorised SO indicators on a large portion of Turkey. This was not concluded by the earlier pertinent studies. Besides, this study showed that significant correlations were obtained not only for the SO extreme phases (namely, El Nino and La Nina) but also for neutral and moderate phases of the SO. Plausible explanations for the observed teleconnection are presented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献