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1.
《Tectonophysics》2001,330(1-2):93-102
The fractality of the earthquake sequence (1983–1997) of Irpinia–Basilicata (Southern Italy), one of the most seismically active regions of the Mediterranean area, has been analysed by temporal and spatial fractal tools. The fractal exponent α, estimated by the Allan Factor method, characterises the time-clustering behaviour of the set of earthquakes, while the correlation dimension DC, calculated by means of the correlation integral method, gives information on the space-clustering behaviour of the sequence of seismic events. Analysing the variations of both the parameters, we recognised the presence of a strong space–time clusterisation associated with the major events that occurred in the investigated area. 相似文献
2.
Vít Vilímek Marco Luyo Zapata Jan Klimeš Zdeněk Patzelt Nelson Santillán 《Landslides》2005,2(2):107-115
In this article we describe natural hazards associated with outburst floods of Palcacocha Lake and landslide events on the slopes of its moraine dam, in Cojup Valley, Cordillera Blanca (Peru). These events occurred in the last 70 years and some of them resulted in disasters, which strongly affected the city of Huarás. Field investigations and reference expression hydrodynamic tests as well as archive satellite images and aerial pictures were used to describe the evolution of hazards connected with Palcacocha Lake. Expression hydrodynamic tests proved a high permeability of sandy gravels glacial sediments, which form the present-day lake dam. Seepage through the natural dam forming small ponds below the overflow spillways occurs. A retreat of the glacial tongue causing an increase of the lake volume and unloading of the slope toe areas are the most important recent processes that influence the potential hazards affecting the Cojup valley. The research has proved that the climate warming and ongoing deglaciation play a very significant role in the change of natural hazards conditions in high mountains. 相似文献
3.
《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part A: Solid Earth and Geodesy》2000,25(6-7):571-579
Assessments of the probability and the consequences of future volcanic activity can be critical aspects when evaluating the safety of the population and of industrial plants. A new methodology has been developed for the probabilistic modelling of volcanic hazards based on regional volcanic data that facilitates the production of probabilistic hazard maps for various volcanic scenarios (lava flows, tephra). The stochastic model is based on Cox processes and allows account to be taken of the observed temporal and spatial correlation inherent in volcanic eruptions. The model is applied to the Quaternary field of the Osteifel region where the forecast number of future eruptions and the probabilities related to the different scenarios are estimated using a Monte Carlo approach. The obtained hazard maps of future volcanic events are part of a comprehensive hazard analysis and serve as a major input for the risk analysis that will determine the consequences of forecast volcanic activity at the site. 相似文献
4.
Overview of some geological hazards in the Saudi Arabia 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The Saudi Arabia has harsh environmental conditions which enhance some geomorphologic/geological processes more than in other areas. These processes create different geological hazards. The general physiography of the Saudi Arabia is characterized by the Red Sea coastal plains and the escarpment foothills called Tihama, followed by the Arabian Shield Mountains, the Arabian Shelf plateau and finally the Arabian Gulf coastal plains. These types of geological hazards can be categorized into sand accumulations, earth subsidence and fissures, flash floods, problematic soils, slope stability problems, and karst problems. The current study gives an overview of all these hazards with examples, as well as develops a geo-hazard map for the Saudi Arabia. Our findings indicate that the desert environment needs much concern and care. National and international agencies have to join together with other people to keep the system balanced and to reduce the resulting geological hazards. Also, remedial measures should be proposed to avoid and reduce these natural hazards. 相似文献
5.
Due to the existence of several pollution hazards in the area and its surroundings, groundwater protection in the Viñales National Park has been defined as a priority task in its management plan for 5 years (2009–2013). Those hazards affect directly the surface waters and the karst nature of the territory allowing the contaminants to enter directly into the aquifers without any or at least small self-depuration processes. In turn, those processes can affect very large areas in a short time. In this paper several results of precedent studies related to the vulnerability, hazards, risk, and the mapping of the spatial variability of natural recharge are integrated in a GIS analysis. The methodology is based on the method of Jimenez-Madrid et al. which is slightly modified in this contribution. The analysis of hydrographs, chemographs, mathematical models and tracer tests is necessary for the definition of a response plan against any contamination events and for model validation, together with the incorporation of data related to the energetic responses from the aquifer systems to external forcing. 相似文献
6.
Natural hazards are natural processes of the complex Earth system and may interact and affect each other. Often a single hazard can trigger a subsequent, different hazard, such as earthquakes triggering landslides. The effect of such cascading hazards has received relatively little attention in the literature. The majority of previous research has focused on single hazards in isolation, and even multi-hazard risk assessment currently does not account for the interaction between hazards, therefore ignoring potential amplification effects. Global earthquake-and-landslide fatality data were used to model cascading events to explore relationships between the number of fatalities during single and cascading events and covariates. A multivariate statistical approach was used to model the relationship between earthquake fatalities and several covariates. The covariates included earthquake magnitude, gross domestic product, slope, poverty, health, access to cities, exposed population to earthquake shaking, building strength and whether a landslide was triggered or not. Multivariate regression analysis showed the numbers of earthquake fatalities are significantly affected by whether a subsequent landslide is triggered or not. 相似文献
7.
Charline Giguet-Covex Fabien Arnaud Dirk Enters Jérôme Poulenard Laurent Millet Pierre Francus Fernand David Pierre-Jérôme Rey Bruno Wilhelm Jean-Jacques Delannoy 《Quaternary Research》2012,77(1):12-22
In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives. 相似文献
8.
Geoffrey S. Plumlee 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):75-76
Large volumes of solid, gaseous, or liquid materials that are of potential concern from an environmental or public health perspective are commonly produced by natural or anthropogenic disasters, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, urban fires, landslides, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, windstorms, industrial spills, and terrorist attacks. Geochemical processes play key roles in the environmental and health impacts of these materials. Yet, process-focused environmental geochemistry expertise and characterization methods are often underutilized in disaster response and planning. In part, the scientific studies needed for detailed process characterization are difficult to plan and implement while the events are still underway, and delayed responses can miss key transient processes and byproducts. Further, emergency responders are focused primarily on identifying the types, amounts, and health hazards of contaminants produced by the event, thus the responders do not have the time or the need to collect the full range of appropriate geological, geochemical, microbiological and other data necessary to understand the full range of physical and chemical processes that influence contamination from these extreme events. A thorough characterization and understanding of geochemical and environmental processes that occur during specific disasters can be used to better anticipate effects of and plan for similar future disasters. A broad spectrum of environmental geochemistry capabilities can be applied to help emergency response authorities and the public health community in their initial hazardous materials assessments immediately following disasters. 相似文献
9.
Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review 总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3
Melanie S. Kappes Margreth Keiler Kirsten von Elverfeldt Thomas Glade 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1925-1958
Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties. 相似文献
10.
Rainfall variability and indices of extreme rainfall-analysis and perception study for two stations over Central Himalaya,India 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The analysis of rainfall pattern and indices of extreme rainfall events is performed for two meteorological stations located in the Central Himalayan Region which is highly vulnerable to rain-induced hazards. The records of these rain-induced disasters suggest that such events are generally observed in later part of monsoon season, when soil is saturated after monsoon rains. An attempt is made here to test trends of 19 different extreme rainfall indices that have been widely used in the literature, using daily rainfall data for two urban centres (Nainital and Almora) over the period 1992–2005. We have used statistical tools such as Sen’s method and Mann–Kendall test for detection of trend in annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall, number of rainy days and 1-day extreme rainfall. Principal component analysis gives the correlation between different extreme rainfall indices. Time series of principal components are representing the trends of extreme indices, their variation and interrelation between different indices. The perception study conducted in the same sites indicates that extreme rainfall events and change in rainfall amount and timing are well perceived by the local people. 相似文献
11.
Natural hazards are normally viewed as events that occur randomly overtime. This precept usually forms the basis for the development of the hazardmagnitude-recurrence interval relationship used in risk assessments. However,hazard variability does not always conform to this relationship especially overlonger time intervals. Non-stationarity can be common with some hazards andthose periods where the variability and/or mean (magnitude/frequency) remainconstant are referred to here as hazard regimes. Shifts from one regime to anotheroccur at a variety of time scales from centuries to millennia. Regime shifts areoften only discernible by examining longer-term records which usually includeprehistoric data. Risk assessments frequently ignore these regime shifts andestimates of the risks associated with tropical cyclones, tsunami, terrestrialfloods and landslides in Australia have been both under-estimated and exaggeratedwhen such assessments have been based solely upon short historical records.Examples of these regime shifts and their significance for natural hazard riskassessment are presented here. 相似文献
12.
Fiona S. Tweed 《Geology Today》2012,28(6):217-223
Volcanic eruptions generate hazards, are potent agents of landscape change and have the power to alter global climate. Recent events in Iceland have emphasised the multi‐scale and trans‐boundary nature of hazards from ice‐volcano interactions and have highlighted their local, national and international impacts. Prompted by these recent events, this article reviews a selection of Icelandic volcanic eruptions in order to demonstrate the diversity of hazards and impacts generated by Icelandic volcanic activity. Some of the challenges associated with managing risks from Icelandic volcanic hazards are discussed and future prospects are outlined. 相似文献
13.
全球主要火山灾害及其分布特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文研究了火山灾害各种致灾因子的物理过程和灾害特点,根据文献中记载的全球火山灾害,在进行火山灾害分区研究的基础上,研究了全球火山灾害分布特征.全球主要的火山灾害分布在8个主要区域.有记载的火山灾害在热带占73%,远高于火山喷发分布于热带区的比例.全球两个最强烈的火山灾害分布区都是围绕着位于板块结合部表现为复杂构造结的班达海和加勒比海,而且每一个灾害区都有3条分支.热带区第3个灾害区为中非区,地幔上隆是这里主要的动力学背景.本文还研究了1700年以来火山灾害时间分布特征,以及1993年以来各种火山灾害发生频次. 相似文献
14.
Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Especially over the last two decades, these natural hazards have caused enormous human and economic damage. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the severity of flooding in comparison with other natural hazards in Turkey and to analyse the flood patterns by providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses. These will act as a metric for the societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was used for the years 1960–2014. As input for more detailed event analyses, the most severe flood events in Turkey for the same time interval will also be retrieved. Sufficiency of the TABB database to achieve the main aim of the study in terms of data quality and accuracy was also discussed. The TABB database was analysed and reviewed through comparison, mainly with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events—Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, news archives and the scientific literature, with a focus on listing the most severe flood event. The comparative review of these data sources reveals big mismatches in the flood data, i.e. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss all differ dramatically. Owing to the fact that the TABB is the only disaster loss database for Turkey, it is important to explore the reasons for the mismatches between TABB and the other sources with regard to aspects of accuracy and data quality. Therefore, biases and fallacies in the TABB loss data are also discussed. The comparative TABB database analyses show that large mismatches between global and national databases can occur. Current global and national databases for monitoring losses from national hazards suffer from a number of limitations, which in turn could lead to misinterpretations of the loss data. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, this study offers a framework for developing guidelines for the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB), implications on how to standardize national loss databases and implement across the other hazard events in Turkey. 相似文献
15.
一系列深埋长大隧道工程在我国西部涌现,深埋隧道围岩的岩爆成因机制及监测预警成为亟待解决的课题。微震监测作为岩体微破裂空间监测技术在隧道工程岩爆预警上发挥了重要作用。由于微震数据存在的波动性（时间序列）、离散性（空间分布）和误差,利用震源参数随施工循环的演化特征评估岩爆发育过程并非足够稳定、有效。基于3种微震监测易于获取且紧密联系的震源参数（地震能量、地震矩和视应力）,扩展建立了用于岩爆评估与预警的EMS方法。该方法定义了地震能量、地震矩、视应力3种评价指标,并获得了3种评价指标间的关系;将3种评价指标用于岩爆预测,并进行了岩爆等级评估;同时还给出了微震路径与震源参数空间的概念。最后,将EMS方法应用于巴陕高速米仓山隧道的岩爆灾害实例,对岩爆里程段微震事件簇（微震事件聚集区域）内岩体累进破裂和岩爆发育过程进行了评估,实现了简易有效的微震数据日常处理与岩爆灾害评估预警。 相似文献
16.
Mapping of hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides in developing countries: Examples from Honduras and Micronesia 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Edwin L. Harp Mark E. Reid Jonathan P. McKenna John A. Michael 《Engineering Geology》2009,104(3-4):295-311
Loss of life and property caused by landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events demonstrates the need for landslide-hazard assessment in developing countries where recovery from such events often exceeds the country's resources. Mapping landslide hazards in developing countries where the need for landslide-hazard mitigation is great but the resources are few is a challenging, but not intractable problem. The minimum requirements for constructing a physically based landslide-hazard map from a landslide-triggering storm, using the simple methods we discuss, are: (1) an accurate mapped landslide inventory, (2) a slope map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) or topographic map, and (3) material strength properties of the slopes involved. Provided that the landslide distribution from a triggering event can be documented and mapped, it is often possible to glean enough topographic and geologic information from existing databases to produce a reliable map that depicts landslide hazards from an extreme event. Most areas of the world have enough topographic information to provide digital elevation models from which to construct slope maps. In the likely event that engineering properties of slope materials are not available, reasonable estimates can be made with detailed field examination by engineering geologists or geotechnical engineers. Resulting landslide hazard maps can be used as tools to guide relocation and redevelopment, or, more likely, temporary relocation efforts during severe storm events such as hurricanes/typhoons to minimize loss of life and property. We illustrate these methods in two case studies of lethal landslides in developing countries: Tegucigalpa, Honduras (during Hurricane Mitch in 1998) and the Chuuk Islands, Micronesia (during Typhoon Chata'an in 2002). 相似文献
17.
18.
C. John Mann 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(5):589-601
Although risk analysis today is considered to include three separate aspects (1) identifing sources of risk, (2) estimating probabilities quantitatively, and (3) evaluating consequences of risk, here only estimation of probabilities for natural geologic events, processes, and phenomena is addressed. Ideally, evaluation of potential future hazards includes an objective determination of probabilities that have been derived from past occurrences of identical events or components contributing to complex processes or phenomena. In practice, however, data which would permit objective estimation of those probabilities of interest may not be adequate, or may not even exist.Another problem that arises normally, regardless of the extent of data, is that risk assessments involve estimating extreme values. Probabilities are required for events that are the greatest or rarest because they commonly will have the greatest consequences; the largest, or rarest, events always fall in tails of frequency distributions. Rarely are extreme values accurately predictable even when an empirical frequency distribution is established well by data.In the absence of objective methods for estimating probabilities of natural events or processes, subjective probabilities for the hazard must be established through Bayesian methods, expert opinion, or Delphi methods. Alternative solutions may involve consequence analysis which may demonstrate that, although an event may occur, its consequences are sufficiently small that it safely may be ignored or by establishing bounds which may demonstrate that although probabilities are not known they cannot exceed a maximum value that is sufficiently small so that associated risk may be considered to be negligible.Uncertainty of every probability determination must be stated for each component of an event, process, or phenomenon. These uncertainties also must be propagated through the quantitative analysis so that a realistic estimate of total uncertainty can be associated with each final probability estimate for a geologic hazard.This paper was presented (by title) at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987. 相似文献
19.
中国东部地区的地质灾害多以坡面泥石流的形式发生,预测预报坡面泥石流的发生对于开展防灾减灾具有重要意义。地形、地质和降雨三大条件是影响坡面泥石流发生的主要条件。通过选择同样地质条件和基本相同降雨条件的区域,研究影响坡面泥石流发生的地形条件,并得出可以用于坡面泥石流预报的坡面泥石流地形条件。结果表明:地形条件由坡面坡度因子、泥石流上部因子、泥石流侧面因子和临空面因子组成;较大的地形条件T对应较大的泥石流发生可能性;降雨条件由泥石流发生前的降雨量与1 h降雨量组成;得出了由地形条件T和降雨条件R组成的坡面泥石流预报条件P,P值越大,坡面泥石流发生的可能性越大。预报条件P可以预报坡面泥石流的发生。 相似文献
20.
金沙江虎跳峡河段岸坡变形破坏的相关动力因子研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
河谷岸坡的变形与破坏是地球内外动力耦合作用的结果,并且每一种动力地质作用对于岸坡变形失稳的贡献程度不同,造成岸坡变形破坏频率和规模的空间差异。金沙江虎跳峡地区内、外动力地质作用十分显著,岸坡变形破坏体的空间分布具有鲜明的地段性。本文采用定性与定量相结合的效果测度分析方法,对虎跳峡河段岸坡变形破坏密度与相关动力因子进行关联度量化分析,从而确定了影响岸坡稳定的关键性动力因子,可为水电开发中的岸坡灾害成因类型划分、危险性评价、灾害治理和工程规划设计等提供科学依据。 相似文献