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1.
An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan 总被引：13，自引：11，他引：2
Hsu Wen-Ko Huang Pei-Chiung Chang Ching-Cheng Chen Cheng-Wu Hung Dung-Moung Chiang Wei-Ling 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1295-1309
Taiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall
to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons
and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed
based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including
a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from
the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred
since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In
addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case
study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives
such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference
for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan. 相似文献
2.
Chien-Yuan Chen 《Landslides》2016,13(1):153-164
Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring. 相似文献
3.
Considering that urban areas may suffer more substantial losses than riparian farmlands during floods, diverting floodwater into riparian areas for temporal detention is expected to mitigate flood damage in downstream urban areas. In this study, an assessment has been conducted to evaluate the effect of flood mitigation through riparian detention in response to a changing climate in the Tou-Chien River basin of Taiwan. An integrated 1D–2D flow model was used to simulate the movement of flood wave in the main stream and the overbank flow inundating into the nearby lowlands. Based on the numerical simulation results, the flooding extents in the basin corresponding to different return periods of flood using existing flood prevention infrastructures were investigated. A detention strategy by lowering the levee along the riparian farmlands was proposed to avoid severe flooding in the densely populated urban areas of the basin. Research findings showed that the proposed detention measure can completely protect the downstream areas from overbank flooding when a flood having 20-yr period occurs, and can effectively alleviate the downstream flooding area from 27.4 to \(7.6\,\hbox {km}^{2}\) for a flood possessing 200-yr period. 相似文献
4.
Among the disasters facing Taiwan, earthquakes and typhoons incur the greatest monetary losses, and landslide disasters inflict the greatest damage in mountainous areas. The nationwide landslide susceptibility map gives an indication of where landslides are likely to occur in the future; however, there is no objective index indicating the location of landslide hotspots. In this study, we used statistical analysis to locate landslide hotspots in catchments in Taiwan. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the existence of landslide clusters between 2003 and 2012 and identified a concentration of landslide hotspots in the eastern part of Central Taiwan. The extreme rainfall brought by typhoon Morakot also led to the formation of new landslide hotspots in Southern Taiwan. This study provides a valuable reference explaining changes in landslide hotspots and identifying areas of high hotspot concentration to facilitate the formulation of strategies to deal with landslide risk. 相似文献
5.
Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Yaolong Liu Zhenlou Chen Jun Wang Beibei Hu Mingwu Ye Shiyuan Xu 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(3):1287-1298
Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability
of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang
Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools. Results indicate that the elements of risk
scenarios include time–space scenarios, disaster scenarios, and man-made scenarios. Ten-year and 100-year typhoon rainstorms
and flood hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Wenzhou City. The average rainfall across a 100-year
frequency is 450 mm. The extreme water depth of a 100-year flood is 600 mm. High-vulnerability areas are located in Yueqing,
Pingyang, Cangnan, and Wencheng counties. The average loss rate of a 100-year flood is more than 50%. The greatest possible
loss of floods shows an obvious concentration-diffusion situation. There is an area of about 20–25% flood loss of 6–24 million
Yuan RMB/km2 in the Lucheng, Longwan and Ouhai districts. The average loss of a 100-year flood is 12 million Yuan RMB/km2, and extreme loss reaches 49.33 million Yuan RMB/km2. The classification of risk scenario may be used for the choice of risk response priorities. For the next 50 years, the 10-year
typhoon rainstorm-flood disaster is the biggest risk scenario faced by most regions of Wenzhou City. For the Yueqing, Ruian,
and Ouhai districts, it is best to cope with a 100-year disaster risk scenario and the accompanying losses. 相似文献
6.
极端洪水灾害具有频率低、影响范围大、损失高等特点,一般常遇洪水的灾害损失评估方法难以适用。分析了极端洪水灾害的自然属性与社会属性,认为极端洪水灾害损失具有时空分布的特性,因此借鉴空间信息格网技术,分别形成了极端洪水水文特性格网与社会经济特性格网,并将其叠加得到具有空间拓扑关系和属性信息的基于GIS的极端洪水损失空间信息格网模型,从而有效地反映了极端洪水灾害的时空特性。结合极端洪水损失率数据库,可评估极端洪水灾害损失。利用该方法评估了1998年特大洪水造成哈尔滨市江南主城区的直接经济损失,实证说明该方法可用于极端洪水灾害损失的评估。 相似文献
7.
We present the large-scale simulation of watershed mass transport, including landslide, debris flow, and sediment transport. A case study of Tsengwen reservoir watershed under the extreme rainfall triggered by typhoon Morakot is conducted for verification. This approach starts with volume-area relation with landslide inventory method to predict temporal and regional landslide volume production and distribution. Then, debris flow model, Debris-2D, is applied to simulate the mass transport from hillslope to fluvial channel. Finally, a sediment transport model, NETSTARS, is used for hydraulic and sediment routing in river and reservoir. Near the water intake at the reservoir dam, the simulated sediment concentration is in good agreement with the measured one. The proposed approach gives good prediction and should help the management of reservoir operation and disaster prevention. 相似文献
8.
Flash flood routing modeling for levee-breaks and overbank flows due to typhoon events in a complicated river system 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
There has been a yearly increase in precipitation in Taiwan, consistent with trends seen across the world. In the summer and
fall, typhoons or tropical cyclones with torrential rainfall frequently occur as a result of Taiwan’s subtropical climate.
Flash floods may cause a levee-break and/or the overtopping of banks at narrow neck locations in a river system, which may
in turn produce inundation in urban areas. Therefore, a model that predicts flash floods is of vital importance for river
management. The present study is based on a flash flood routing model, which incorporates levee-break and overbank functions
to calculate the discharge hydrographs in the complicated Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was
calibrated and verified against observed water stages using three typhoon events. The results indicate reasonable agreement
between the model simulations and the observed data. The model was then used to calculate the levee-break and overbank flow
hydrographs due to Typhoon Talim (2005) and Typhoon Nari (2001), respectively. The simulated results indicate that several
parameters significantly affect the flow hydrograph during a levee-break and should be carefully monitored when levee-break
events occur in the river system. The simulated water stages at several stations are consistent with observed data from Typhoon
Nari. The simulated overbank flow results quantitatively agree with reported information. The data also confirm that most
of the overbank events occurred at the upper reaches of the Keelung River, consistent with the low levee height protection. 相似文献
9.
Landslides frequently occur during large earthquakes and storms in Taiwan, supplying large volumes of sediment to downslope areas. When coupled with the intense northeast monsoon over Taiwan in the dry winter season, this can lead to high concentrations of airborne particulates that are hazardous to human health. Air quality monitoring stations near unvegetated riverbanks recorded high concentrations of particulate matter less than 10 μm (PM10) after Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The objective of this study was, therefore, to analyze the effects on air quality of sediment caused by the typhoon. A deflation module was simulated, and the resulting estimates were compared with observed data from the Taitung monitoring station for 2004 and 2005. The relationship of dust flux to average atmospheric dust concentration was analyzed for October to December 2001–2010. Analysis showed that the 2001–2008 data are highly correlated (0.78) with the average concentration. The intercept of 28.07 represented the background concentration with no dust emission, from October to December of 2001–2008. Based on the dust flux potential in 2009, the average yearly PM10 concentration would be 37.98 µg/m3; however, the measured concentration was 61.67 µg/m3 from October to December. This suggests the strong influence of dust re-suspended from unvegetated riverbanks by Typhoon Morakot. 相似文献
10.
High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. 相似文献
11.
Natural Hazards - Typhoon Morakot of 2009 caused the worst flooding in the history of Taiwan. Because research on climate change has indicated that similar extreme disasters are expected to become... 相似文献
12.
Hsien-Tang Tsai Cheng-Jui Tseng Shian-Yang Tzeng Tung-Ju Wu Jen-der Day 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(1):83-91
Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan in 2009, severely damaging the Alishan National Forest Recreation Area, a famous tourist resort
in Taiwan. The only highway to this area was under repair for 10 months after the typhoon. Consequently, Alishan’s tourism
industry suffered losses estimated at NT$1 billion. This work investigates the impacts of natural hazards on Taiwan’s tourism
industry. First, government, university, and industry experts were invited to a focus-group interview to update criteria for
tourism development in Taiwan. Next, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to rank the proposed criteria. Last,
two tourist attractions, one urban and one rural, are discussed in detail. This work proposes three novel dimensions for Taiwan’s
tourism development—destination attraction, destination arrangement, and contingency planning for natural hazards—which comprise
nine criteria. Analytical results will provide Taiwan’s tourism industry with references for future policy-making and sustainable
development. 相似文献
13.
14.
黄河泥沙未来变化趋势关系到新时期治黄策略制定，科学认知入黄沙量变化特征，特别是一些典型或极端情况下的沙量变化原因，对于科学研判黄河泥沙未来情势具有重要指导意义。本文在分析百年黄河沙量演变特征基础上，重点解析了2013年和2018年典型"大沙"年份以及2017年典型"极端降雨"年份潼关沙量波动变化原因。结果表明:1919—2018年百年尺度上黄河潼关站输沙量呈"台阶式"减少特征且减少趋势极显著（P < 0.001），尤其2000年以后年均输沙量降至2.44亿t左右；随着黄土高原下垫面土壤侵蚀环境大幅改善，黄河上游相似来水年头道拐—潼关区间流域输沙量减少82%，相似极端降雨情景下流域次洪输沙量平均减少50%~85%，2017极端降雨年并未导致大沙年出现，水土保持生态建设成果在减少入黄泥沙方面发挥了关键作用；2013年和2018年典型"大沙"年潼关站泥沙来源解析表明，河道淤积泥沙冲刷和水库排沙成为新时期黄河潼关站沙量波动变化的主要影响因素。 相似文献
15.
黄河泥沙未来变化趋势关系到新时期治黄策略制定，科学认知入黄沙量变化特征，特别是一些典型或极端情况下的沙量变化原因，对于科学研判黄河泥沙未来情势具有重要指导意义。本文在分析百年黄河沙量演变特征基础上，重点解析了2013年和2018年典型"大沙"年份以及2017年典型"极端降雨"年份潼关沙量波动变化原因。结果表明：1919—2018年百年尺度上黄河潼关站输沙量呈"台阶式"减少特征且减少趋势极显著（P<0.001），尤其2000年以后年均输沙量降至2.44亿t左右；随着黄土高原下垫面土壤侵蚀环境大幅改善，黄河上游相似来水年头道拐—潼关区间流域输沙量减少82%，相似极端降雨情景下流域次洪输沙量平均减少50%~85%，2017极端降雨年并未导致大沙年出现，水土保持生态建设成果在减少入黄泥沙方面发挥了关键作用；2013年和2018年典型"大沙"年潼关站泥沙来源解析表明，河道淤积泥沙冲刷和水库排沙成为新时期黄河潼关站沙量波动变化的主要影响因素。 相似文献
16.
Extreme weather has recently caused many disasters worldwide. In August 8, 2009, Southern Taiwan suffered from serious floods during Typhoon Morakot. In this extreme rainfall event, the Chiuliao first levee in the Laonong River basin experienced catastrophic failure. Therefore, this study focuses on the levee failure mechanisms based on variations in levee water levels. Specifically, this study investigates four mechanisms based on limit state equilibrium. The first mechanism involves the slope stability under hydrostatic conditions at various water levels. The results of this analysis show that the levee cannot fail under this mechanism. The second mechanism involves the levee slope stability with steady-state seepage. Because the water levels are different on the protected and flood sides, the water recedes much faster on the flood side than the protected side. Based on this analysis, the levee slope might fail when the water level at the protected side is close to the top of levee and the water level at the flood side starts to recede. The third and fourth mechanisms involve the levee foundation failure in terms of sliding and overturning failure. The results of this study indicate that the levee foundation is more prone to sliding failure than overturning failure. Based on these results, this study shows that the levee failed when the water level at the protected side neared the top of levee while the water level at flood side started to recede. At this moment, the levee may fail because of both the slope failure with seepage and sliding failure of the levee foundation. 相似文献
17.
During Typhoon Morakot which hit Taiwan from 6 to 9 August, 2009, Kaohsiung City was highly affected by devastating debris-flows and flooding. Recorded casualties were 699 deaths and 1,766 damaged homes, mostly in the mountainous areas of Kaohsiung City. Due to a largely malfunctioning or absent early-warning system, residents in those mountainous villages were required to rely on individual- and/or community-based capacities to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters. Hence, this study investigates the response behaviour of selected debris-flow-affected communities in Kaohsiung City, based on a preparedness awareness action and affect model. Key results from the survey highlight that only 13.8 % of the households received formal (institutional) early warning, whereas 86.2 % households had to rely on their intrinsic senses and indigenous knowledge to recognise the onset of debris-flows in their villages during Typhoon Morakot. Among those households who did not receive formal early warning, 10 % of the households received previous disaster education, 17 % had previous disaster experience, and 73 % did have neither disaster education nor disaster experience. Furthermore, households with disaster education were among those who were best prepared and knew best how to evacuate and respond to debris-flow-related disasters followed by households with disaster experiences. Finally, findings from the survey and selected key informants’ interviews identified that the response behaviour of communities ought to be enhanced through the following measures: conduction of hydro-meteorological-related disaster education, improved participatory risk communication and enhanced recognition of communities as vital actors during a disaster to provide local knowledge and support to relief operations. 相似文献
18.
A series of empirical studies involving typhoon rainstorm and flood risk scenario analysis were carried out on a medium spatial scale, covering Pingyang County. Considering a rainstorm/water-logging conversion process, active flooding submergence and per unit area values (million yuan/km2), two typical risk scenarios (50- and 100-year frequency) were simulated and analyzed. The study revealed that high-risk areas distributed across the towns of Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang, with a maximum submerged depth of 4.61 m for a 100-year flood hazard. In the case of a disaster loss rate >65 %, the potential maximum loss could be more than 10 million yuan/km2. For medium-scale disaster risk, more attention must be paid to catastrophic events, which have a low probability of occurrence but would induce great losses. An amended risk formula could determine the degree of priority for responses to hazards of equal risk value better. In Pingyang County, the 50-year flood risk for Kunyang, Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang is greater than that of 100-year events for the next 50 years. However, these areas should give priority to their responses to 100-year disaster events during the next 100 years. In addition, the attention of disaster risk should vary in different spatial regions. 相似文献
19.
This paper examines the credibility and predictability of sediment flux of the Changjiang River that has discharged into the
seas on the basis of historical database. The assumption of the study stands on the lack of sufficient observation data of
suspended sediment concentration (SSC) during peaking flood period, which most likely results in the application of an inappropriate
method to the downstream-most Datong hydrological gauging station in the Changjiang basin. This insufficient method (only
30–50 times of SSC observation per year), that obviously did not cover the peaking SSC during peaking floods, would lead to
an inaccuracy in estimating the Changjiang sediment load by 4.7×108 t/a (multiyearly) into the seas. Also, sediment depletion that often takes place upstream of the Changjiang basin has, to
some extent, lowered the credibility of traditional sediment rating curve that has been used for estimating sediment budget.
A newly-established sediment rating curve of the present study is proposed to simulate the sediment flux/load into the seas
by using those SSC only under discharge of 60000 m3/s at the Datong station-the threshold to significantly correlate to SSC. Since discharge of 60000–80000 m3/s is often linked to extreme flood events and associated sediment depletion in the basin, unincorporating SSC of 60000–80000
m3/s into the sediment rating curve will increase the credibility for sediment load estimation. Using this approach of the present
study would indicate the sediment load of 3.3×108–6.6×108 t/a to the seas in the past decades. Also, our analytical result shows a lower sediment flux pattern in the 1950 s, but higher
pattern in the 1960 s–1980 s, reflecting the changes in landuse in the upstream of Changjiang basin, including widely devastated
deforestation during the middle 20th century. 相似文献
20.
Development of an empirical model for rainfall-induced hillside vulnerability assessment: a case study on Chen-Yu-Lan watershed,Nantou, Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Tsu-Chiang Lei Yi-Min Huang Bing-Jean Lee Meng-Hsun Hsieh Kuan-Ting Lin 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):341-373
In Taiwan, the hillside is about 70 % of total area. These areas also have steep topography and geological vulnerability. When an event of torrential rain comes during a typhoon, the landslide disasters usually occur at these areas due to the long duration and high intensity of rainfall. Therefore, a design which considers the potential landslide has become an important issue in Taiwan. In this study, a temporal characteristic of landslide fragility curve (LFC) was developed, based on the geomorphological and vegetation factors using landslides at the Chen-Yu-Lan watershed in Taiwan, during Typhoon Sinlaku (September 2008) and Typhoon Morakot (August 2009). This study addressed an effective landslide hazard assessment process, linking together the post-landslide damage and post-rainfall data for LFC model. The Kriging method was used to interpolate the rainfall indices (R 0, R, I) for numerical analysis. Remote sensing data from SPOT images were applied to analyze the landslide ratio and vegetation conditions. The 40-m digital elevation model was used for slope variation analysis in the watershed, and the maximum likelihood estimate was conducted to determine the mean and standard deviation parameters of the proposed empirical LFC model. This empirical model can express the probability of exceeding a damage state for a certain classification (or conditions) of landslides by considering a specific hazard index for a given event. Finally, the vulnerability functions can be used to assess the loss from landslides, and, in the future, to manage the risk of debris flow in the watershed. 相似文献