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1.
The Guangdong province of China contains the most clearly described high-incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) areas in the world. The geographical heterogeneity of cancer incidence in the region suggests that many carcinogenic risk factors might be present in the regional geochemical environment. This paper presents the concentrations of a wide range of known carcinogens in two high cancer incidence areas in Guangdong and compared them to a low cancer incidence area in the same province. N-Nitrosamines, NO3−, NO2−, and ammonium were detected in groundwater, surface water, and drinking-water. The concentrations of the 7 trace metal and metalloid elements As, Cd, Ni, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Hg were determined in surface soil samples and all water samples. The results show that, compared with the guidelines or limit values for drinking-water quality in the world, the high cancer incidence areas have hazardous high levels of N-nitrodimethlyamine (NDMA) in all kinds of water. Oppositely, the low cancer incidence area has a safe low level of NDMA in water bodies. The levels of NO3−, NO2−, and ammonium in water have the same character, although they have different expression between the two high-risk areas. The distribution of the 7 tested trace elements in surface soil has no significant correlation with cancer incidence. On the other hand, high concentrations of carcinogenic N-Nitrosamines in drinking-water and natural water bodies were identified for the first time in the high NPC and HCC incidence area. 相似文献
2.
全球气候变化影响了气象水文要素的时空分布特性,气象水文干旱事件的转化关系及风险传播特征亟待研究。基于站点、栅格观测资料和CMIP5（Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase5）的19个气候模式输出数据,采用新安江等4个水文模型模拟了中国135个流域历史（1961—2005年）和未来时期（2011—2055年,2056—2100年）的水文过程,计算了SPI（Standard Precipitation Index）和SRI（Standard Runoff Index）干旱指标,通过游程理论识别了气象干旱与水文干旱事件,利用Copula函数与最大可能权函数度量二维干旱风险特征,定量评估了气象干旱至水文干旱的潜在风险传播特性。结果表明:①气象-水文干旱对气候变化响应强烈,华北和东北地区的干旱联合重现期增大,干旱潜在风险减小,华中和华南地区的干旱联合重现期减少60%~80%,干旱潜在风险增加;②气象干旱与水文干旱风险在历史和未来时段均存在显著的正相关关系,相关系数超过0.99;③各流域水文干旱风险变化对气象干旱风险变化的敏感程度不会随气候变暖发生较大变化,但未来北方地区水文干旱同气象干旱同时发生的概率将会小幅度增加。 相似文献
3.
Most of the existing predictive malaria risks spatial models use very broad spatial scales, and they are usually built-up
for continental or national outlines. These models usually do not account for the complexity of socio-economic variables intervening
into the malaria transmission process as well malaria prevention strategies. These spatial and thematic shortcomings are particularly
interesting when looking at urban environments. This paper explains why a focus on urban malaria overcomes these shortcomings.
A set of environmental variables derived from remotely sensed and ground climate station sources was used to build-up an ecological
model. An original data collection process based on GPS measurements and retrospective interviews was introduced for the creation
of various geoepidemiological and geosocial variables. Multinomial logistic models were used to predict and evaluate the contribution
of various thematically separated groups of variables to malaria risk. Finally, it was possible to statistically and spatially
evaluate the contribution of ecologic, socio-ecologic, socio-economic and behavioural characteristics of these groups of variables
to malaria risks. 相似文献
4.
The concentration of trace metals was measured in groundwater samples collected from Malwa region of Punjab, India. The samples were analyzed by using high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS). The results were compared with permissible limits prescribed by various health and environmental protection agencies. The concentrations of trace metals such as Mn, Se, Mo, Cd, Sb and Pb were higher than their respective permissible limits at some sampling sites. The total hazard index (HItotal) (summing the hazard index through ingestion and dermal routes) at all the sampling sites exceeded or nearing unity, indicating the presence of non-carcinogenic health effects from ingestion of groundwater and dermal contact with groundwater. The results reveal that the total excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCRtotal) of metals exposure was in accordance with the acceptable lifetime risks for carcinogens in drinking water. 相似文献
5.
Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China. 相似文献
6.
P. Goovaerts 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(3):243-264
The analysis of health data and putative covariates, such as environmental, socio-economic, behavioral or demographic factors,
is a promising application for geostatistics. However, it presents several methodological challenges that arise from the fact
that data is typically aggregated over irregular spatial supports and consists of a numerator and a denominator (e.g., population
size). This paper presents an overview of recent developments in the field of health geostatistics, with an emphasis on three
main steps in the analysis of areal health data: (1) estimation of the underlying disease risk, (2) detection of areas with
significantly higher risk, and (3) analysis of relationships with putative risk factors. The analysis is illustrated by using
age-adjusted cervix cancer mortality rates recorded from 1970 to 1994 of 118 counties in four Western USA states. Poisson
kriging allows the filtering of noisy mortality rates computed from small population sizes, enhancing the correlation with
two putative explanatory variables: percentage of habitants living below the federally defined poverty line, and percentage
of Hispanic females. Area-to-point kriging formulation creates continuous maps of mortality risk, reducing the visual bias
associated with the interpretation of choropleth maps. Stochastic simulation is used to generate realizations of cancer mortality
maps, which allows one to quantify how uncertainty of the spatial distribution of health outcomes translates into uncertainty
of the location of clusters of high values or the correlation with covariates. Finally, geographically-weighted regression
highlights the non-stationarity in the explanatory power of covariates; the higher mortality values along the coast are better
explained by the two covariates than the lower risk recorded in Utah. 相似文献
7.
Luca Salvati 《GeoJournal》2016,81(1):77-88
In the most recent decades European urban regions underwent functional changes reflecting heterogeneous land-use patterns and specific urban footprints. Several mono-centric cities shifted towards a scattered development with impact on the socio-spatial structure. Discontinuous expansion determined, in some cases, a net increase in land consumption. Using a multivariate exploratory approach, the present study analyzes the spatial relationships between 14 morphological variables and 22 socioeconomic indicators in Rome’s province. The aim of this study was to identify the demographic and socioeconomic indicators most associated to the transition from a mono-centric and semi-compact morphology towards a more dispersed settlement structure based on different sealing profiles observed at the local scale. Four groups of socioeconomic indicators (population structure, job market, economic specialization and settlement characteristics) associated to different sealing profiles (low, medium and high imperviousness) were identified and local municipalities classified accordingly. Although the urban–rural axis maintains an important role in the spatial organization of Rome’s province, other variables were found associated to areas with moderately low imperviousness, evidencing a specific demographic structure and persisting socioeconomic disparities at the base of the settlement model observed at the regional scale. 相似文献
8.
《矿物学报》2013,(Z1)
Mineral–microbe interactions indirectly affect the geochemical fluxes and biogeochemical cycling of a large number of elements. Among them are toxic heavy metals (e.g. chromium), radionuclides (uranium and technetium), and nitrogen. Heavy metals and radionuclides enter the environment from various sources such as mining activity, nuclear weapons production, metallurgical and chemical industries. Other metals, such as lead, arsenic, antimony, and cadmium, are enriched in certain environments by either natural or anthropogenic processes. Because many of these metals and radionuclides are carcinogens, their release into the environment and their fate cause intense scientific and public concern and are the subject of substantial research. Nitrate enters the environment largely through agricultural activity. Human health risks from nitrate uptake from drinking water supplies run the gamut from increased cancer risk to birth defects. 相似文献
9.
《Geoforum》2014
Most studies on the causes of deforestation have sought to link the phenomenon to specific economic, political, or demographic factors, usually through statistical or spatial-statistical modeling. However, generalizations about the link between deforestation and specific variables or classes of variables are of questionable validity. Another approach, one that is receiving growing attention, seeks instead to identify particular contexts or situations, as created by an array of interacting factors, which encourage forms of land use or other economic activity that can generate deforestation pressure. Such an approach was used in this study to explore recent trends and dynamics in the Petén region of northern Guatemala. The research found a number of regional and national scale factors that in combination have led to a process of de-agrarianization and dispossession among smallholders, while large scale, commercial activities in agriculture, ranching and plantation forestry increasingly dominate. Rapid land concentration, in conjunction with limited employment generation through emergent activities, is intensifying pressure on remaining areas of forest. A focus on two distinct areas within Petén reveals how broader-scale trends and features can have differing outcomes at the local level, with contrasting socioeconomic and environmental effects. Finally, the paper explores the implications of recent dynamics in Petén for both policy and theory in relation to deforestation, agrarian change, and regional development. Key factors and questions are highlighted that should be considered when exploring influences on regional socioeconomic and environmental conditions. 相似文献
10.
Combining geographic information system, multicriteria evaluation techniques and fuzzy logic in siting MSW landfills 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Alexandra Gemitzi Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis Evangelos Voudrias Christos Petalas George Stravodimos 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(5):797-811
This study presents a methodology for siting municipal solid waste landfills, coupling geographic information systems (GIS),
fuzzy logic, and multicriteria evaluation techniques. Both exclusionary and non-exclusionary criteria are used. Factors, i.e.,
non-exclusionary criteria, are divided in two distinct groups which do not have the same level of trade off. The first group
comprises factors related to the physical environment, which cannot be expressed in terms of monetary cost and, therefore,
they do not easily trade off. The second group includes those factors related to human activities, i.e., socioeconomic factors,
which can be expressed as financial cost, thus showing a high level of trade off. GIS are used for geographic data acquisition
and processing. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is the multicriteria evaluation technique used, enhanced with fuzzy
factor standardization. Besides assigning weights to factors through the AHP, control over the level of risk and trade off
in the siting process is achieved through a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, applied to factors in each factor
group, on a pixel-by-pixel basis, thus taking into account the local site characteristics. The method has been applied to
Evros prefecture (NE Greece), an area of approximately 4,000 km2. The siting methodology results in two intermediate suitability maps, one related to environmental and the other to socioeconomic
criteria. Combination of the two intermediate maps results in the final composite suitability map for landfill siting. 相似文献
11.
A long time series in crop yield is usually expressed as a long-term trend and a short-term fluctuation due to agricultural technological advance and climatic anomaly. The real climate risk is related to the short-term fluctuation in crop yield. In the paper, the climate risk of maize yield response to long-term climate variables is tested with the long time series (1961–2015) by a trend base line method. The long time series of maize yield is divided into short-term fluctuating meteorological yield and long-term trend yield. The long time series of climate variables are also divided into fluctuating variables and trend variables. After that, Pearson correlation analysis between fluctuating maize yield and fluctuating climate variables is used to identify risk factor causing maize yield fluctuation. Our results reveal that the main risk factors are night-time precipitation and extreme high temperature in growing season. Comparing climate risks in maize-producing provinces, much more climate risks are identified in some regions such as Liaoning province. The results provide useful information for reducing maize yield loss under climatic change.
相似文献12.
13.
《Geoforum》2015
The themes of immigration and mobility have not been adequately examined by environmental justice (EJ) scholars. This study addresses that gap by clarifying factors shaping Hispanic people’s residential decision-making and their associated exposures to cancer risks from Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) in Greater Houston, Texas. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 Hispanic householders who had previously completed a structured survey, which was representative of Greater Houston’s population. Our research design enabled data collection from immigrant and United States (US)-born Hispanics living at high and low risk to HAPs. By using a comparative qualitative analysis approach to examine divergent experiences of Hispanic subgroups, we advance from the monolithic treatment of the US Hispanic population reflected in the extant EJ literature. Our findings reveal that key determinants of high HAP risks included economic constraint on residential locational options for both US-born and immigrant Hispanics, and attraction to sociocultural benefits in co-ethnic enclaves among immigrants in particular. In contrast, protective factors differed entirely between US-born and immigrant Hispanics. For US-born participants, the experience of upward-and-outward sociospatial mobility – coupled with detachment from the Hispanic community – generated lower HAP risks, while the experience of living in social isolation within a less-than-ideal rental unit was protective for immigrants. The pernicious, multiscalar nature of environmental injustice experienced by Greater Houston’s Hispanic immigrants is encapsulated by the fact that their pursuit of affordable and comfortable residential settings at the household level contributes to the reproduction of their collectively disproportionate HAP exposures. 相似文献
14.
《Geoforum》2016
This paper examines how gender relations within rural communities in north-central Mexico affect women’s perceptions of and responses to environmental and social risks. Several studies currently exist which suggest various reasons as to how people especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change perceive their risks, and how this influences their responses. In this paper, I take a feminist approach to questions of social–environmental risks and adaptation to argue that risk perception is tightly linked to knowledge production, and knowledge production is a power-laden process involving the constant negotiation of resources, responsibilities and knowledge. I base this argument on the results of fieldwork conducted from September 2009 to May 2010 with women residents of two ejidos in northern Guanajuato, Mexico. In drawing from feminist political ecology studies, I intend to show how gender, environmental knowledge, risk perception and thus, adaptation are constituted by and embedded in social relations of power. 相似文献
15.
Eustatic and climatic controls on the development of the Wahiba Sand Sea, Sultanate of Oman 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Aeolian sand sea accumulations can serve as valuable archives of climate change in continental environments. The Wahiba Sand Sea is situated at the northern margin of the area presently affected by Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation and it records environmental changes associated with this major climatic boundary over the last 160 000 years. The internal stratigraphy and evolution of the sand sea is investigated using a combination of outcrop, borehole, seismic and luminescence data. Proximity to the Indian Ocean means that the sand sea succession shows the influence of sea level changes on the sedimentary architecture and composition of the dune deposits. During the last two glacial periods, low global sea level was associated with a high input of bioclastic grains, reflecting the significance of subaerially exposed shelf areas as one of the main sources of aeolian sediment. The onset of aeolian sediment transport and deposition was related to the breakdown of stabilizing vegetation during arid periods that equate with sea level lowstands. The preservation of aeolian sediments by the formation of supersurfaces and associated palaeosoils took place during times of increased wetness and elevated groundwater tables. This interplay of constructive and destructive periods greatly influenced the sedimentary architecture. Oscillations of wet and dry periods between 160 000 and 130 000 years and 120 000–105 000 years ago are attributed to the evolution of a wet aeolian system. Younger periods of aeolian deposition around and after the last glacial maximum were characterized by dry aeolian conditions. No soil horizons developed during these times. 相似文献
16.
Renato Macciotta C. Derek Martin Norbert R. Morgenstern David M. Cruden 《Landslides》2016,13(1):115-127
Railway alignments through the Canadian Cordillera are constantly exposed to slope instabilities. Proactive mitigation strategies have been in place for a few decades now, and instability record keeping has been recognized as an important aspect of them. Such a proactive strategy has enhanced the industry’s capacity to manage slope risks, and some sections have been recognized as critical due to the frequency of instabilities. At these locations, quantification of the risks becomes necessary. Risk analysis requires knowledge of some variables for which statistical data are scarce or not available, and elicitation of subjective probabilities is needed. A limitation of such approaches lies in the uncertainty associated to those elicited probabilities. In this paper, a quantitative risk analysis is presented for a section of railway across the Canadian Cordillera. The analysis focused on the risk to life of the freight train crews working along this section. Upper and lower bounds were elicited to cope with the uncertainties associated with this approach. A Monte Carlo simulation technique was then applied to obtain the probability distribution of the estimated risks. The risk probability distribution suggests that the risk to life of the crews is below previously published evaluation criteria and within acceptable levels. The risk assessment approach proposed focuses on providing a measure of the uncertainty associated with the estimated risk and is capable of handling distributions that cover more than two orders of magnitude. 相似文献
17.
Modeling forest fire risk in the northeast of Iran using remote sensing and GIS techniques 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Fire in forested areas can be regarded as an environmental disaster which is triggered by either natural forces or anthropogenic activities. Fires are one of the major hazards in forested and grassland areas in the north of Iran. Control of fire is difficult, but it is feasible to map fire risk by geospatial technologies and thereby minimize the frequency of fire occurrences and damages caused by fire. The fire risk models provide a suitable concept to understand characterization of fire risk. Some models are map based, and they combine effectively different forest fire–causing variables with remote sensing data in a GIS environment for identifying and mapping forest fire risk. In this study, Structural Fire Index, Fire Risk Index, and a new index called Hybrid Fire Index were used to delineate fire risk in northeastern Iran that is subjected to frequent forest fire. Vegetation moisture, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads, and vicinity to settlements were used as the factors influencing accidental fire starts. These indices were set up by assigning subjective weight values to the classes of the layers based on their sensitivity ratio to fire. Hot spots data derived from MODIS satellite sensor were used to validate the indices. Assessment of the indices with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that 76.7 % accuracy of the HFI outperformed the other two indices. According to the Hybrid Fire Index, 57.5 % of the study area is located under high-risk zone, 33 % in medium-risk zone, and the remaining 9.5 % area is located in low-risk zone. 相似文献
18.
The relationship between environmental contamination, human exposure and the risk to health is a complex and fascinating area of research. This paper reviews a number of earlier studies, which focussed on contamination by Pb and sought to address this complexity. It places them within an historical context of different stages of the evolution of the field of risk analysis as applied to environmental research. A risk framework permits these scientific studies to be discussed in relation to the complex social and political environment within which the risks associated with Pb-rich particulate matter were managed (and policy was developed). This paper undertakes this analysis through a risk governance framework, which allows the relationship between the various functions required for management of the risks to be evaluated. It shows ways that values (including stakeholder concerns and risk perceptions) need to be included along with the science that underpins risk analysis in order to make sustainable judgements. It is such judgements that lie at the heart of risk management decision making. 相似文献
19.
Rethinking the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation from a disaster risk perspective 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are three fundamentally inter-related concepts among such research communities as global environmental/climatic change, social–ecological and disaster risk science. However, their mutual relationships are still unclear so far particularly in the field of disaster risk reduction, which to some extent blocks the reasonable risk analysis and scientific decision making. This paper performed a brief overview on the basic definitions and evolution processes of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, and tentatively categorized past diverse thoughts of their relationships into three modalities, such as, vulnerability preference, resilience preference, and overlapped relationships. From a “hit-damage-recovery-learning cycle” insight and based on an empirical case study, we put forward two conceptual frameworks to address the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation within the disaster risk domain, and we further discussed their broader implications in terms of disaster risk management and social–ecological sustainability. In an attempt to bring together the analytical frameworks of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, this study indicates that a sustainable adaptation strategy to the unavoidable disasters or changes should not only seek to reduce the vulnerability of a social–ecological system, but also to foster its resilience and adaptive capacity to future uncertainties and potential risks. 相似文献
20.
Ana Rita Oliveira Cristina Branquinho Maria Pereira Amílcar Soares 《Mathematical Geosciences》2013,45(4):437-452
This paper presents a study in which the lung cancer risk in males was characterized based on a simulation model of mortality rates. Block sequential simulation of mortality rates, measured in counties of different sizes, was implemented and applied to a normal grid of continental Portugal with high spatial resolution. The uncertainty in the mortality rate measurements, directly related to differences in the population size of each county, was integrated in a block direct sequential simulation through Poisson kriging of local means and variances. Three age groups were examined: 50–59, 60–69, and 70–79 years. After the continuous geographic patterns of lung cancer risk were obtained, factors potentially associated with the main areas of risk were analyzed for southern Portugal. Thus, a defined class of land use and dry weather events, related to airborne particulate matter, were found to be associated with high-risk areas, resulting in high local spatial correlation patterns in all three age groups. 相似文献