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1.
We measured the concentration of non-sea-salt sulfate () in the Dome Fuji shallow ice core (Antarctica) from the surface to 40 m depth with the aim of dating the core with reference to the record of volcanic eruptions. Three huge spikes related to large-scale volcanic eruptions were detected at depths of 12.5, 29.9, and 38.8 m, correlated to the eruptions of Tambora (AD 1815), Kuwae (AD 1452) and an unknown event (AD 1259), respectively. We identified another nine spikes related to accurately dated eruption events. The shallow ice core was dated from AD 1260 to AD 2001 based on these 12 eruption events and the assumption of constant annual snow accumulation in the periods between eruption events. The results yield a maximum correction of ∼20 years compared with the dating proposed in a previous study. The annual accumulation varied within ±∼15% of the average water equivalent value over the study period (25.5 mm).  相似文献   

2.
Patagonia grasslands are subjected to two main disturbances, fire and grazing, but little information is available about its effects on vegetation. We studied post-fire survival and resprouting ability of two dominant grass species, Stipa speciosa and Festuca pallescens, for four years; evaluated the effect of early post-fire defoliation on both species; and tested whether competition is important in post-fire recovery in San Ramón Ranch, NW Patagonia (Argentina). To simulate grazing, a clipping treatment was applied at the beginning and end of growing seasons. Survival rates were high (>60%) and, after three years, biomass of both species in the burned area was similar to the unburned area. Competition seems to play an important role in the early post-fire recovery of both species, particularly in the case of F. pallescens that increased 87% the biomass production without competition. Fire may improve forage quality by eliminating the standing dead material, but early post-fire grazing might endanger the persistence of F. pallescens. We suggest requiring a resting period before livestock introduction and controlling grazing intensity.  相似文献   

3.
Rates of sediment supply by landsliding to an alluvial channel in a small catchment in central Switzerland were estimated over an 11-month study period. Fluvial sediment transport in the channel is independently monitored at the upstream and downstream ends of the study reach, yielding a unique opportunity to quantitatively compare the volume of sediment supplied to the channel with the volume in fluvial transport. Landslide-derived sediment discharge to the channel was greatest during the winter and spring months, while most of the fluvial sediment transport occurred during short, intense summer storms. Approximately 98 m3 of sediment was delivered directly to the study reach by landsliding,  80 m3 was transported into the reach from upstream, and  70 m3 was transported out of the reach. Thus, there was a net accumulation of  100 m3 of sediment during the 11-month study. Decadal-scale channel aggradation was independently assessed by comparing channel longitudinal profiles in 1993 and 2004. During this 11-year period, a total of  1500 m3 of sediment has accumulated in the study reach. Aggradation has occurred largely in two broad zones that correspond with both the locations of major landslide complexes and reaches of high channel slope, indicating that hillslope sediment input left an imprint on the morphology of the channel bed that appears to be stable over at least decadal time scales.  相似文献   

4.
Herbivorous tortoises in arid, winter-rainfall regions need to forage in seasons that provide relatively little heat for their ectothermic metabolism. To help understand how tortoises exploit resources in winter-rainfall areas, I recorded ambient, soil, and body temperatures for Homopus signatus in four spring seasons, and in one summer, autumn, and winter. The spring thermal environment enabled H. signatus to maintain body temperatures that were high compared to other small tortoise species. Mature females had higher spring body temperatures than males and immature individuals, probably because mature females were developing eggs. In summer, autumn, and winter, body temperatures differed between males and females, relating to sexually different activities and retreat uses. The relatively high body temperatures of H. signatus in winter and spring, along with a non-isometric relationship between body temperature and soil temperature, suggest that tortoises thermoregulated and may need considerable time to gain heat. Additional studies should compare body temperatures of H. signatus to operative temperatures, and determine the vulnerability of the taxon to human interferences that affect behavioural time budgets and body temperatures.  相似文献   

5.
Sediment aggregates (“sedimentary pellets”) within the sedimentary record of Lake A (83°00′ N, 75°30′ W), Ellesmere Island, Canada, are used to construct a 1000 year proxy record of ice-cover extent and dynamics on this perennially ice-covered, High Arctic lake. These pellets are interpreted to form during fall or early winter when littoral sediment adheres to ice forming around the lake’s periphery or during summer through the development of anchor ice. The sediment likely collects in ice interstices and is concentrated in the upper ice layers through summer surface ice melt and winter basal ice growth. The pellets remain frozen in the ice until a summer or series of summers with reduced ice cover allows for their deposition across the lake basin. Sedimentary pellet frequency within multiple sediment cores is used to develop a chronology of ice-cover fluctuations. This proxy ice-cover record is largely corroborated by a record of unusual sedimentation in Lake A involving iron-rich, dark-orange to red laminae overlying more diffuse laminae with a lighter hue. This sediment sequence is hypothesized to represent years with reduced ice cover through increased chemocline ventilation and iron deposition. During the past millennium, the most notable period of inferred reduced ice cover is ca. 1891 AD to present. Another period of ice cover mobility is suggested ca. 1582–1774 AD, while persistent ice cover is inferred during the 1800s and prior to 1582 AD. The proxy ice-cover record corresponds well with most regional melt-season proxy temperature and paleoecological records, especially during the 1800s and 1900s.
Jessica D. TomkinsEmail:
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6.
Evidence from lake sediments and glacier forefields from two hydrologically isolated lake basins is used to reconstruct Holocene glacier and climate history at Hallet and Greyling Lakes in the central Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. Glacial landform mapping, lichenometry, and equilibrium-line altitude reconstructions, along with changes in sedimentary biogenic-silica content, bulk density, and grain-size distribution indicate a dynamic history of Holocene climate variability. The evidence suggests a warm early Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglaciation in the two drainage basins, beginning between 4.5 and 4.0 ka. During the past 2 ka, the glacial landforms and lacustrine sediments from the two valleys record a remarkably similar history of glaciation, with two primary advances, one during the first millennium AD, from ~500 to 800 AD, and the second during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to 1900 AD. During the LIA, the reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude in the region was no more than 83 ± 44 m (n = 21) lower than the modern, which is based on the extent of glaciers during 1978. Differences between the summer temperature inferred from the biogenic-silica content and the evidence for glacial advances and retreats suggest a period of increased winter precipitation from 1300 to 1500 AD, and reduced winter precipitation from 1800 to 1900 AD, likely associated with variability in the strength of the Aleutian Low.
Darrell S. KaufmanEmail:
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7.
Field active body temperatures (Tb) and operative temperatures (Te) were assessed in a population of Uromastyx aegyptia microlepis at Mahazat as-Sayd Protected Area, Saudi Arabia. In summer Tb ranged between 23.2 and 47.2 °C, in winter between 23.0 and 45.1 °C and in spring between 25.5 and 45.9 °C. There is a significant difference between respective Tb and Te distributions which suggests that U. a. microlepis is an active thermoregulator. Above ground activity is very variable between seasons, with the highest activity level in spring. In winter the animals showed an unimodal activity profile. In spring and summer the lizards exhibit bimodal activity profiles with afternoon activity being generally lower than morning activity levels. Species distribution models were calculated to estimate the future impact of global warming on this taxon. Estimates on the basis of temperature data suggest that the range size on the Arabian Peninsula might be stable but with a remarkable decrease of environmental suitability of up to 70-80%. Based on a synthesis of thermo-ecological data and species distribution models we consider climate warming as a potential threat to the survival of the species.  相似文献   

8.
Grass growth has been encouraged in arid communities globally to improve grazing. Often exotic species are planted, subsequently spreading beyond their plantings to drastically alter cover and negatively impact native species. We evaluated the effects of the invasive, perennial grass Cenchrus ciliaris on the native woody species Cercidium microphyllum over two growing seasons: 2002 and 2003. To determine if C. ciliaris alters seasonal responses of C. microphyllum, we measured predawn water potential, photosynthesis, and branch sacrifice on C. microphyllum growing with either native cover or C. ciliaris. In 2003 a removal treatment of C. ciliaris was applied to assess responses in C. microphyllum during the summer. In both years, C. microphyllum water potentials closely tracked seasonal rainfall, suggesting dependence on shallow soil water. In 2002, we observed few negative impacts when C. microphyllum grew with C. ciliaris. However, the trees growing with C. ciliaris exhibited greater branch sacrifice, a typical response to drought, which likely complicated interpretation of the treatment effects. Removal of C. ciliaris resulted in increased water potentials and photosynthesis. This study suggests that exotic grasses, such as C. ciliaris, can reduce both water potential and photosynthetic rates in mature woody shrubs, like C. microphyllum, in aridland systems.  相似文献   

9.
To examine the effects of interannual variations in environmental conditions on the seasonal range selection and movement pattern of Mongolian gazelles Procapra gutturosa, we compared the summer and winter ranges of satellite tracked gazelles among 3 years, and we analyzed the environmental conditions in the gazelles' seasonal ranges by using a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The movement pattern of the tracked Mongolian gazelles was not regular migration between specific seasonal ranges. The locations of the summer ranges in 2003 and 2004 were similar for all gazelles, but in 2005, when the NDVI values were lower, the animals ranged about 30–70 km farther north, suggesting that the gazelles used areas of similar vegetation availability with former 2 years. The winter ranges were widely separated among years; the longest distance between winter ranges of the same individual in different years was about 340 km. During winter, the NDVI values of the winter ranges of tracked gazelles were almost always higher than or not significantly different from the mean of the 3-year range. Conservation strategies to allow access to wide ranges containing suitable areas in each year for gazelles, which location is changing interannually, are important.  相似文献   

10.
Flux and fate of Yangtze River sediment delivered to the East China Sea   总被引：57，自引：0，他引：57  
Numerous cores and dating show the Yangtze River has accumulated about 1.16 × 1012 t sediment in its delta plain and proximal subaqueous delta during Holocene. High-resolution seismic profiling and coring in the southern East China Sea during 2003 and 2004 cruises has revealed an elongated ( 800 km) distal subaqueous mud wedge extending from the Yangtze River mouth southward off the Zhejiang and Fujian coasts into the Taiwan Strait. Overlying what appears to be a transgressive sand layer, this distal clinoform thins offshore, from  40 m thickness between the 20 and 30 m water depth to < 1–2 m between 60 and 90 m water depth, corresponding to an across shelf distance of less than 100 km. Total volume of this distal mud wedge is about 4.5 × 1011 m3, equivalent to  5.4 × 1011 t of sediment. Most of the sediment in this mud wedge comes from the Yangtze River, with some input presumably coming from local smaller rivers. Thus, the total Yangtze-derived sediments accumulated in its deltaic system and East China Sea inner shelf have amounted to about 1.7 × 1012 t. Preliminary analyses suggest this longshore and across-shelf transported clinoform mainly formed in the past 7000 yrs after postglacial sea level reached its mid-Holocene highstand, and after re-intensification of the Chinese longshore current system. Sedimentation accumulation apparently increased around 2000 yrs BP, reflecting the evolution of the Yangtze estuary and increased land erosion due to human activities, such as farming and deforestation. The southward-flowing China Coastal Current, the northward-flowing Taiwan Warm Current, and the Kuroshio Current appear to have played critical roles in transporting and trapping most of Yangtze-derived materials in the inner shelf, and hence preventing the sediment escape into the deep ocean.  相似文献   

11.
Ice surface topography of a late Pleistocene glacier complex, herein named the Taylor River Glacier Complex (TRGC), was reconstructed on the basis of detailed mapping of glacial landforms combined with analyses of aerial photos and topographic maps. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), the TRGC covered an area of 215 km2 and consisted of five valley or outlet glaciers that were nourished by accumulation in cirques basins and/or upland ice fields.Equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) for the glaciers of the TRGC were estimated using the accumulation-area ratio method, assuming that ratio to be 0.65 ± 0.05. ELAs thus derived ranged from about 3275 to 3400 m, with a mean of 3340 ± 60 m. A degree-day model (DDM) was used to infer the climatic significance of the LGM ELA. With no appreciable differences in precipitation with respect to modern climate, the ELA implies that mean summer temperatures during the LGM were 7.6 °C cooler than today. The DDM was also used to determine the temperatures required to maintain steady-state mass balances for each of the reconstructed glaciers. The required reductions in summer temperature vary little about a mean of 7.1 °C. The sensitivity of these results to slight (± 25%) changes assumed for LGM precipitation are less than ± 0.5 °C. Even under an LGM climate in which precipitation is assumed to be substantially different (± 50%) than the present, mean summer temperatures must be on the order of 7.0 to 8.5 °C lower to depress equilibrium lines to LGM altitudes. The greater sensitivity of the ELA to changes in temperature suggests that glaciation in the region was driven more by decreases in summer temperature rather than increases in precipitation.  相似文献   

12.
Esophageally fistulated goats were released in a microphyll desert scrub habitat with 14.6% or 46.2% aerial cover of Atriplex canescens (induced by removal of all shrubs except A. canescens, with livestock grazing exclusion for 10 years) to determine the seasonal forage species selected by the goats. The shrub removal strongly influenced the goats’ feeding habits. The goats grazing the Atriplex-dominated site consumed 4.5 times more A. canescens than the goats on the untreated (control) pasture during all seasons. Shrubs were used heavily during all seasons by goats in both pastures, with higher percentages (75.5–82.8%) in the diets of goats grazing the control pasture than in the diets of goats grazing the Atriplex-dominated area (62.5–68.5%). No differences were found between seasons. The goats in the Atriplex-dominated pasture ate more grass than the goats grazing the control area and used more perennial graminoids during the summer (15.0%) and spring (18.3%) than the goats on the control area (6.0–7.0%). Forbs were an important component of diets. It was concluded that the successful revegetation of the treated pasture affected the goats’ feeding strategy, with an increase in the use of A. canescens, forbs and grasses in all seasons.  相似文献   

13.
This article reviews and analyzes the available information on range and livestock production in the Monte Desert. Cow–calf operations, goats for meat, and sheep for wool are the dominant production systems under continuous grazing. Rest-rotational grazing systems improved the efficiency of the current cow–calf production. Forage resources are primarily composed of perennial grasses and woody species. Rain-use efficiency for the total vegetation ranged from 3.9 to 4.8 kg DM ha?1 year?1 mm?1. Carrying capacity showed a broad range: 18.7, 4.5–64.5, and 21.6–89.3 ha AU?1 in the north, central, and south portions of the Monte, respectively. Mean crude protein (CP) content of grasses varied from 8.4 to 10.3 (wet season) and 7.1–3.7% DM (dry season) in the central west and Patagonia, respectively. Grasses predominated in the cattle diet, while the sheep diet was highly diverse because they ate most of the available plant species, and there was no unanimity as to the fact that goats are strictly browsers. Livestock diseases have lower prevalence indices than those recorded in other areas of the country. The high variability in carrying capacity values could be attributed to differences in rangeland condition and to the different methods used for its estimation. The CP levels in forage could meet cattle requirements provided that a proper-stocking rate were used. The most promising species for land rehabilitation are Opuntia, Atriplex spp., Eragrostis curvula and Cenchrus ciliaris. Priorities for future research should include topics such as assessment of the carrying capacity for most of the areas and nutrient content of the components of livestock diet, the livestock intake values, the economic feasibility of the use of complementary feeds and the development of seeding technology for valuable forage resources as Trichloris crinita, among others.  相似文献   

14.
Understanding the role competition intensity and importance play in directing vegetation dynamics is central to developing restoration strategies, especially in resource poor environments. We hypothesized 1) competition would be intense among invasive and native species, but 2) competition would be unimportant in explaining variation in target plant biomass and survivorship relative to other factors driving these variables. We performed a two year addition series field experiment to quantify competition intensity and importance. Densities of two invasive (cheatgrass and medusahead) and two native (Sandberg’s bluegrass and bluebunch wheatgrass) species were arranged in monocultures and mixtures of two, three and four species, producing varying total densities and species proportions. Multiple linear regression models predicting individual plant biomass and survivorship were developed. Based on biomass, competition intensity coefficients ranged from −0.38 to 0.63 with R2 < 0.06. All survivorship data produced poor fitting regression models (R2 < 0.05). Our results suggest neither competition intensity nor importance influenced plant dominance in resource poor environments during the two years of establishment. Land managers may be more successful at restoration of resource poor ecosystems by overcoming abiotic barriers to plant establishment rather than focusing on plant-plant interactions.  相似文献   

15.
放牧家畜与食草野生动物争草(畜兽冲突)是人兽冲突在草原放牧业中的具体体现,其涉及面广,对牧民生计影响明显。畜兽冲突强度研究对完善野生动物损害补偿制度、促进人与自然和谐共生具有重要意义。论文通过地面调查与模型模拟,考虑草地牧草产量、家畜存栏量和食草野生动物种群数量,提出了放牧家畜与食草野生动物争草冲突强度量化方法,评价了三江源国家公园玛多县牧草地畜兽争草强度。结果表明：(1)据2022年样线调查和随机森林模型估计,玛多县藏野驴(Equus kiang)、藏原羚(Procapra picticaudata)种群密度分别为0.2157头/km2、0.1655只/km2,种群数量分别为5307头、4073只,折合23264羊单位(SU),2018年末各类家畜存栏量34.2万SU,畜兽争草相对强度为1/14.7。(2)玛多县高寒草甸、高寒草原的可食牧草产量分别为118.7 g/m2、88.3 g/m2,可承载密度分别为0.2710 SU/hm2、0.1532 SU/hm2,理论承载力52.85万SU。家畜承载率、食草野生动物承载率、家畜+食草野生动物承载率分别为64.7%、4.4%和69.1%。(3)国家公园内的乡镇,草地承载力盈余,家畜承载率低、野生动物承载率高,但畜兽争草相对强度较大,建议完善移民搬迁、野生动物损害补偿制度,强化国家公园体制建设;国家公园外的乡镇,草地超载严重,家畜承载率高,畜兽争草强度不高,建议减畜增效、绿色发展。  相似文献   

16.
Using the Ar–Ar technique, we have obtained the first numerical dates for the Pleistocene volcanism along the valley of the River Ceyhan in the Düziçi area of southern Turkey, in the western foothills of the Amanos Mountains. Our six dates indicate a single abrupt episode of volcanism at  270 ka. We have identified a staircase of 7 fluvial terraces, at altitudes of up to  230 m above the present level of the Ceyhan. Using the disposition of the basalt as an age constraint, we assign these terraces to cold-climate stages between marine oxygen isotope stages 16 and 2, indicating rates of fluvial incision, equated to surface uplift, that increase upstream through the western foothills of this mountain range at between 0.25 and 0.4 mm a− 1. Extrapolation of these uplift rates into the axis of the range suggests that the entire  2300 m of present-day relief has developed since the Mid-Pliocene, a view that we confirm using numerical modelling. Since  3.7 Ma the Amanos Mountains have formed a transpressive stepover along the northern part of the Dead Sea Fault Zone, where crustal shortening is required by the geometry. Using a physics-based technique, we have modelled the overall isostatic response to the combination of processes occurring, including crustal thickening caused by the shortening, erosion caused by orographic precipitation, and the resulting outward flow of mobile lower-crustal material, in order to predict the resulting history of surface uplift. This modelling suggests that the effective viscosity of the lower crust in this region is in the range  1–2 × 1019 Pa s, consistent with a Moho temperature of  590 ± 10 °C, the latter value being in agreement with heat flow data. This modelling shows that the nature of the active crustal deformation is now understood, to first order at least, in this key locality within the boundary zone between the African and Arabian plates, the structure and geomorphology of which have been fundamentally misunderstood in the past.  相似文献   

17.
Quantitative regional assessments of streambed sedimentation and its likely causes are hampered because field investigations typically lack the requisite sample size, measurements, or precision for sound geomorphic and statistical interpretation. We adapted an index of relative bed stability (RBS) for data calculated from a national stream survey field protocol to enable general evaluation of bed stability and anthropogenic sedimentation in synoptic ecological surveys. RBS is the ratio of bed surface geometric mean particle diameter (Dgm) divided by estimated critical diameter (Dcbf) at bankfull flow, based on a modified Shield's criterion for incipient motion. Application of RBS to adequately depict bed stability in complex natural streams, however, has been limited because typical calculations of RBS do not explicitly account for reductions in bed shear stress that result from channel form roughness. We modified the index (RBS) to incorporate the reduction in bed shear stress available for sediment transport that results from the hydraulic resistance of large wood and longitudinal irregularities in channel dimensions (“form roughness”). Based on dimensional analysis, we derived an adjustment to bankfull shear stress by multiplying the bankfull hydraulic radius (Rbf) by the one-third power of the ratio of particle-derived resistance to total hydraulic resistance (Cp/Ct)1/3, where both resistances are empirically based calculations. We computed Cp using a Keulegan equation relating resistance to relative submergence of bed particles. We then derived an empirical equation to predict reach-scale hydraulic resistance Ct from thalweg mean depth, thalweg mean residual depth, and large wood volume based on field dye transit studies, in which total hydraulic resistance Ct was measured over a wide range of natural stream channel complexity, including manipulation of large wood volumes. We tested our estimates of Ct and RBS by applying them to data from a summer low flow probability sample of 104 wadeable stream reaches in the Coastal Ecoregion of Oregon and Washington, USA. Stream discharges calculated using these Ct estimates compared favorably with velocity–area measurements of discharge during summer low flow, and with the range of 1 to 2-year recurrence floods (scaled by drainage area) at U.S.Geological Survey gauged sites in the same region. Log [RBS] ranged from − 4.2 to + 0.98 in the survey region. Dgm ranged from silt to boulders, while estimated bankfull critical diameter, Dcbf, ranged from very fine gravel to large boulders. The median value of Dcbf (adjusted for form roughness influences) averaged 40% (inter quartile range 28 to 59%) of the unadjusted estimate Dcbf. Log[RBS] was consistently negatively related to human disturbances likely to produce excess sediment inputs or hydrologic alteration. Log [RBS] ranged from − 1.9 to + 0.5 in the streams within the lower quartile of human disturbance in their basin and riparian areas and was substantially lower (− 4.2 to − 1.1) in streams within the upper quartile of human disturbance. The synoptic survey methods and designs we used appear adequate to evaluate regional patterns in bed stability and sedimentation and their general relationship to human disturbances. Although the RBS concept also shows promise for evaluating sediment and bed stability in individual streams, our approach is relatively coarse, so site-specific assessments using these rapid field methods might prudently be confined to identifying severe cases of sedimentation or channel alteration. Greater confidence to discern subtle differences in site-specific assessments could be gained by calculating RBS using more precise field measurements of channel slope, bed particle size and bankfull dimensions, and by refining our adjustments for energy loss from channel form roughness.  相似文献   

18.
Alpa Sridhar   《Geomorphology》2007,88(3-4):285-297
This paper attempts to quantify contemporary and palaeo-discharges and changes in the hydrologic regime through the mid–late Holocene in the alluvial reach of the arid Mahi River basin in western India. The occurrence of terraces and pointbars high above active river levels and change in the width/depth ratio can be regarded as geomorphic responses to changes in discharge. Discharge estimates are made based on the channel dimensions and established empirical relations for the three types of channels: mid–late Holocene, historic (the channel that deposited extensive pointbars above the present-day average flow level) and the present ones. The bankfull discharge of the mid–late Holocene channel was  55 000 m3 s− 1 and that of the historic channel was  9500 m3 s− 1, some  25 times and  5 times greater than that of the present river (2000 m3 s− 1), respectively. Since the mid–late Holocene, the channel form has changed from wide, large-amplitude meanders to smaller meanders, and decreases in the width/depth ratio, unit stream power and the bed shear stresses have occurred. It can be inferred that there has been a trend of decreasing precipitation since the mid–late Holocene.  相似文献   

19.
Recent improvements in understanding glacial extents and chronologies in the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains and other mountain ranges in the western U.S. call for a more detailed approach to using glacier reconstructions to infer paleoclimates than commonly applied AAR-ELA-ÄT methods. A coupled 2-D mass balance and ice-flow numerical modeling approach developed by [Plummer, M.A., Phillips, F.M., 2003. A 2-D numerical model of snow/ice energy balance and ice flow for paleoclimatic interpretation of glacial geomorphic features. Quaternary Science Reviews 22, 1389–1406] allows exploration of the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation and many secondary parameters on past ice extents in alpine settings. We apply this approach to the Little Cottonwood Canyon in the Wasatch Mountains and the Lake Fork and Yellowstone Canyons in the south-central Uinta Mountains. Results of modeling experiments indicate that the Little Cottonwood glacier required more precipitation during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than glaciers in the Uinta Mountains, assuming lapse rates were similar to modern. Model results suggest that if temperatures in the Wasatch Mountains and Uinta Mountains were  6 °C to 7 °C colder than modern, corresponding precipitation changes were  3 to 2× modern in Little Cottonwood Canyon and  2 to 1× modern in Lake Fork and Yellowstone Canyons. Greater amounts of precipitation in the Little Cottonwood Canyon likely reflect moisture derived from the surface of Lake Bonneville, and the lake may have also affected the mass balance of glaciers in the Uinta Mountains.  相似文献   

20.
This paper uses annual data on world oil price and consumption from 1965 to 2006 to calibrate a Hotelling model of optimal nonrenewable resource extraction. Numerical solutions are generated for various specifications of the elasticity of demand for both isoelastic demand and linear demand under each of two possible market structures: perfect competition and monopoly. Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, the model that best fits actual data is one of perfect competition with linear demand and a demand elasticity of −0.4. For the periods 1973–1981 and 1981–1990, the model that best fits actual data is one of monopoly with linear demand and demand elasticities of −0.8 and −0.7, respectively, suggesting that the market was strongly influenced by OPEC during this time. Under the model that best fits the most recent period (perfect competition with linear demand and demand elasticity −0.5), the real oil price (in 1982–1984 U.S.$) should fall in the range $60.87–$66.31/barrel over the years 2010–2030.
C.-Y. Cynthia LinEmail:
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