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1.
Temperature–depth profiles measured in boreholes contain a record of temperature changes at the Earth's surface. The degree to which these profiles and surface air temperature records track each other is quantitatively assessed for the northern plains of the USA. Surface air temperature records are used as a forcing function to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles which are compared with transient temperatures derived from borehole temperature–depth data. These comparisons indicate that surface air and ground temperatures are correlated. Furthermore, these comparisons yield a long-term mean temperature tied to the meteorological record which provides a context for interpreting contemporary warming trends. Our results indicate that warming recorded in surface air temperature time series represents a positive departure above baseline temperature estimates.  相似文献   

2.
Snow cover influences the thermal regime and stability of frozen rock walls. In this study, we investigate and model the impact of the spatially variable snow cover on the thermal regime of steep permafrost rock walls. This is necessary for a more detailed understanding of the thermal and mechanical processes causing changes in rock temperature and in the ice and water contents of frozen rock, which possibly lead to rock wall instability. To assess the temporal and spatial evolution and influence of the snow, detailed measurements have been carried out at two selected points in steep north‐ and south‐facing rock walls since 2012. In parallel, the one‐dimensional energy balance model SNOWPACK is used to simulate the effects of snow cover on the thermal regime of the rock walls. For this, a multi‐method approach with high temporal resolution is applied, combining meteorological, borehole rock temperature and terrain parameter measurements. To validate the results obtained for the ground thermal regime and the seasonally varying snowpack, the model output is compared with near‐surface rock temperature measurements and remote snow cover observations. No decrease of snow depth at slope angles up to 70° was observed in rough terrain due to micro‐topographic structures. Strong contrasts in rock temperatures between north‐ and south‐facing slopes are due to differences in solar radiation, slope angle and the timing and depth of the snow cover. SNOWPACK proved to be useful for modelling snow cover–rock interactions in smooth, homogenous rock slopes.  相似文献   

3.
Estimates of past climate derived from borehole temperatures are assuming a greater importance in context of the millennial temperature variation debate. However, recovery of these signals is usually performed with regularization which can potentially lead to underestimation of past variation when noise is present. In this work Bayesian inference is applied to this problem with no explicit regularization. To achieve this Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo is employed, and this allows models of varying complexity (i.e. variable dimensions) to be sampled so that it is possible to infer the level of ground surface temperature (GST) history resolution appropriate to the data. Using synthetic examples, we show that the inference of the GST signal back to more than 500 yr is robust given boreholes of 500 m depth and moderate noise levels and discuss the associated uncertainties. We compare the prior information we have used with the inferred posterior distribution to show which parts of the GST reconstructions are independent of this prior information. We demonstrate the application of the method to real data using five boreholes from southern England. These are modelled both individually and jointly, and appear to indicate a spatial trend of warming over 500 yr across the south of the country.  相似文献   

4.
乌鲁木齐市低空温度层结与采暖期大气污染的关系   总被引：12，自引：5，他引：12  
为了找出乌鲁木齐市低空逆温对大气污染的影响规律,为治理和预测大气污染提供科学依据,利用2000年6月至2006年4月的乌鲁木齐市空气污染监测资料和气象站的探空、地面资料,分析了大气污染与逆温的对应特征。结果表明:乌鲁木齐市低空逆温的出现频率与大气污染指数具有相似的时间分布特征。采暖期空气污染指数API值越大,相对应出现逆温日的比例越高,以贴地逆温多;在污染源排放量一定的情况下,大气中污染物浓度与低空逆温层厚度、逆温层底高、逆温层顶底温差有显著的统计关系,而与逆温层中的逆温强度统计关系不显著。随着逆温层底高度降低,逆温层平均顶高、厚度、逆温层顶底温差的增大,日平均气温、最低气温、最高气温的降低,污染级别呈增加趋势;在采暖期同一时段内,要达到同样的污染级别,悬浮逆温日污染物容纳量比贴地逆温大,贴地逆温更容易造成空气污染;在污染物排放量相同的情况下,污染的程度主要取决于悬浮逆温层的底高和厚度及持续日数。  相似文献   

5.
The main purpose of this research was to measure the near surface ground temperatures and describe the main characteristics of the thermal regime of a sheltered arctic coastal cliff. Measurements were made near Ny-Alesund, western Spitsbergen, Svalbard (79°N, 12°E), in a transect across sediments on top of a coastal cliff, in a 8 m high coastal cliff and across the beach below the cliff. Temperatures were logged hourly from August 1987 to August 1988. A local snow cover of 1–4 m on the beach had a strong influence on surface heat exchange, and hence the dynamics of the ground thermal regime. Late winter temperatures in the cliff and backshore sediments were stable and ranged from -5°C to -9°C. At the first snow melt events in spring there was a large heat flux into the ground due to the release of latent heat from refreezing of meltwater. The interpretation of the temperature records leads to a discussion on some aspects of cryogenic weathering. The snow-melt period in spring and summer may be a period of rock fracturing, based on the model of segregation ice growth at subzero temperatures. Steep temperature gradients and available meltwater at the surface favor water migration in the heavily fractured dolomitic limestone even at the low hydraulic conductivities expected at below zero temperatures.  相似文献   

6.
疏勒河源区的多年冻土   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  
疏勒河流域地处祁连山西段,气候极端干旱.2008年6月在疏勒河源区海拔3729-3890 m的不同地面、地形条件下在5个点上布设了10眼钻孔进行钻探勘察,并布设测温管定期监测地温.根据勘察和测温资料,确定了疏勒河流域内多年冻土下界高程在3750 m左右,查明河谷中松散地层以冲积层为主,多为粗颗粒土,多年冻土含冰量普遍较低.局地因素对多年冻土状态影响明显.其中坡度差异可以使地温相差0.5℃.坡向的差异可以使地温相差达1.0℃;地层水分含量对浅层地温的影响甚至超过坡向的影响;地面状态的差异,造成地温、活动层厚度等方面的显著差异.与祁连山中东部地区相比,疏勒河源区多年冻土几乎没有生态过程的影响,多年冻土形成和保存受气候驱动,基本上代表了一类干旱气候条件下的多年冻土特征.  相似文献   

7.
As an alternative to finite element or finite difference modelling, analytical solutions are derived by the method of Laplace transformation and numerical results obtained for several models of the bottom hole temperature stabilization. Included in the models are the finite circulation time, the thermal property contrast between the borehole mud and the surrounding formation, and the presence of radial or lateral fluid flow in the formation, all of which are found to have significant effects on the dissipation of the thermal disturbance induced by drilling.
The mud circulation is considered to have the effect of either maintaining the borehole mud at a constant temperature or supplying a constant amount of heat per unit length per unit time to the borehole. For small circulation times, the former reduces to the 'zero circulation' model in which the mud circulation creates an instantaneous temperature anomaly at the hole bottom; for small borehole radii, the latter reduces to the line source model and the traditional 'Homer plot'.
For typical drilling operations in which the bottom hole temperatures are measured several hours to several tens of hours after the hole is shut in, the new models generally predict higher equilibrium formation temperatures than does the Horner plot. However, predictions from the various models converge if the BHTs are taken after the hole has been shut in for a period which is greater than about five times the circulation period.  相似文献   

8.
In the last several decades, the underlying surface conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have changed dramatically, causing permafrost degradation due to climate change and human activities. This change severely influenced the cold regions environment and engineering infrastructure built above permafrost. Permafrost is a product of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ground. The formation and change of permafrost are determined by the energy exchange between earth and atmosphere system. Fieldwork was performed in order to learn how land surface change influenced the thermal regime in permafrost regions. In this article, the field data observed in the Fenghuo Mountain regions was used to analyze the thermal conditions under different underlying surfaces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results show that underlying surface change may alter the primary energy balance and the thermal conditions of permafrost. The thermal flux in the permafrost regions is also changed, resulting in rising upper soil temperature and thickening active layer. Vegetation could prevent solar radiation from entering the ground, cooling the ground in the warm season. Also, vegetation has heat insulation and heat preservation functions related to the ground surface and may keep the permafrost stable. Plots covered with black plastic film have higher temperatures compared with plots covered by natural vegetation. The reason is that black plastic film has a low albedo, which could increase the absorbed solar radiation, and also decrease evapotranspiration. The ＂greenhouse effect＂ of transparent plastic film might effectively reduce the emission of long-wave radiation from the surface, decreasing heat loss from the earth＇s surface, and prominently increasing ground surface temperature.  相似文献   

9.
黄河源区地表水资源变化及其影响因子   总被引：19，自引：3，他引：16  
利用1955~2005 年黄河源区玛多气象站和黄河沿水文站气象、水文资料, 分析了该区域地表水资源、气候及冻土演变规律, 揭示了地表水资源变化的成因。研究表明: 近51 年黄河源流量丰枯转化频繁, 但在总体上特别是进入20 世纪90 年代以来黄河源流量呈减少趋势, 流量年内分配表现为单峰型; 降水量对流量有着较为显著的影响, 且具有一定的持续性; 黄河源区气温的显著升高对于加大流域蒸发量导致流量补给的减少作用要大于其升高致使冰雪融水的补给作用, 其中春季气温回升的这一效应更为显著; 黄河源区冻土呈现出显著的退化趋势, 冻土厚度与流量总体上呈显著的正相关关系, 其不断减小削弱了自身天然隔水层的作用; 黄河源区蒸发量呈现出显著的增大趋势, 并导致流量的减少; 气候变化导致流量的减少量占总减少量的70%, 其余30%可能是由人类活动加剧造成的, 气候及冻土因子对流量的作用大小依次为冻土、降水、蒸发和气温, 显然多年冻土对于黄河源区地表水资源的形成和发育有着至关重要的作用。  相似文献   

10.
Bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) from oil exploration provide useful constraints on the subsurface thermal regime, but they need to be corrected to obtain the equilibrium temperature. In this work, we introduce several BHT correction methods and compare them using a large Australian data set of more than 650 groups of multiple BHT measurements in about 300 oil exploration boreholes. Existing and suggested corrections are classified within a coherent framework, in which methods are divided into: line/cylinder source; instantaneous/continuous heat extraction; one/two component(s). Comparisons with reservoir test temperatures show that most of the corrections lead to reliable estimates of the formation equilibrium temperature within ±10 °C, but too few data exist to perform an intercomparison of the models based on this criterion. As expected, the Horner method diverges from its parent models for small elapsed times (or equivalently large radii). The mathematical expression of line source models suffers from an unphysical delay time that also restrains their domain of applicability. The model that takes into account the difference of thermal properties between circulating mud and surrounding rocks—that is the two-component model—is delicate to use because of its high complexity. For these reasons, our preferred correction methods are the cylindrical source models. We show that mud circulation time below 10 hr has a negligible effect. The cylindrical source models rely on one parameter depending on the thermal diffusivity and the borehole radius, which are poorly constrained, but the induced uncertainty on the extrapolations remains reasonably low.  相似文献   

11.
A very large surface inversion, which would not have been detected at the official recording height of 2 m above the mire surface, was recorded at the snow surface of an earth hummock in Lapland. The maximum inversion was 35 °C, and the monthly temperature departure was 7.8 °C in December 1992. The characteristics of the surface inversion are compared with conditions during another winter when no long inversion periods occurred. The presence of this surface inversion may explain the formation of new permafrost in pounus, even when official records showed no unusually low temperatures.  相似文献   

12.
Propagation characteristics of borehole flexural waves are functions of five borehole, fluid and formation parameters. Uncertainties in any of these model parameters may introduce errors in the estimate of formation shear-wave speed. Other sources of error in the estimate may be caused by deviations from the assumed circular borehole cross-section or heterogeneity in the material properties of formation in the vicinity of a borehole from the usually assumed homogeneous properties. The influence of uncertainties in model parameters on borehole flexural dispersion has been calculated from a general perturbation model based on Hamilton's principle. A sensitivity analysis of the flexural dispersion to small variations in the model parameters shows that the formation shear speed has by far the most dominant influence in a slow formation. In contrast, the flexural dispersion in a fast formation is significantly influenced by three of the five model parameters: the formation shear speed, the borehole fluid compressional speed and the borehole diameter. The frequency dependence of these sensitivity functions indicates that the inversion of flexural dispersion for formation shear speed is optimal in the range 2–4 kHz for a borehole of diameter 25.4 cm. The range of validity of the perturbation model has been estimated by comparing results of concentric annuli of different thicknesses, and shear-wave speeds different from that of the formation with those from exact numerical solutions from a modal search program. Generally, the perturbation results for altered annuli of thicknesses up to 15 cm are accurate to within 1 per cent for a shear-wave speed 10 per cent lower than that of the formation. This difference between the perturbation and exact results increases to approximately 1 to 3 per cent for a shear-wave speed 20 per cent lower than that of the formation.  相似文献   

13.
王万同  王卷乐  杜佳 《地理研究》2013,32(5):817-827
MODIS数据时间分辨率较高,在对地能量和水分变化监测应用中具有不可比拟的优势。但其空间分辨率较低,混合象元效应显著,尤其在地表土地利用类型复杂和空间异质性较大时,会带来较大的误差。而ETM+数据具备较高的空间分辨率,但其单一的热红外波段导致反演的地表温度精度不高,且时间分辨率低,因而限制了在地表蒸散监测中的应用。本文探讨了将TM/ETM+与MODIS数据相融合估算区域地表蒸散的一种多尺度遥感方法,利用TM/ETM+计算得到的植被指数,基于空间增强方法将MODIS反演的地表温度尺度提高到30 m,并结合SEBS模型对伊洛河流域的地表蒸散进行了估算。验证与分析的结果表明,估算精度得到提高,研究区当日蒸散量在0～5.32 mm/d之间,空间分布具有明显的地域性差异,区域分布不均衡。  相似文献   

14.
The evolution of ground thermal state has been studied to assess impacts of current climatic warming on permafrost in Central Yakutia. The analysis of long-term data of regional weather stations has revealed one of the highest increasing trends in mean annual air temperature in northern Russia. A forecast of surface air temperature fluctuations has been made by applying a frequency analysis method. Monitoring of ground thermal conditions allows us to identify inter-annual and long-term variability among a wide range of natural conditions. Experimental research has indicated a long-term dynamics of ground thermal state evolution： ground temperatures at the depth of zero annual amplitude and seasonally thawed layer depth. Long-term variability of thaw depth shows near-zero to weak positive trends in small valleys in contrast to weak negative trends on slopes. With significant climatic warming, the thermal state of near-surface layers of permafrost demonstrates steadiness. Anthropogenic impacts on ground thermal regime in various terrain types have been qualitatively evaluated. Clear-cutting, ground cover stripping, and post-fire deforestation in inter-alas type terrains result in a significant increase of temperature and seasonal ground thaw depth, as well as adverse cryogenic processes. The dynamics of mean annual ground temperature in slash and burn sites have been evaluated in reference to stages of successive vegetation recovery.  相似文献   

15.
利用遥感获取的植被指数和地表温度信息,进行地表能量和水分平衡过程研究是目前陆表过程研究的前沿。根据地表能量和水分平衡原理,对地表温度(Ts)、植被指数(VI),地表蒸散发(ET)之间的空间关系进行了分析,并基于假设条件,构建了温度植被蒸散指数(TVETI)。为验证TVETI表征地表蒸散的能力,利用环境卫星数据和SEBAL模型,对SEBAL模型中各能量通量构建的蒸散指数与TVETI进行线性回归分析,从2012年4~9月6个不同日期的确定性系数分别为:0.838、0.935、0.912、0.921、0.926、0.825, TVETI能很好的表征地表蒸散能力。通过对SEBAL模型估算的ET和TVETI估算的ET进行交叉验证发现,两者大小一致性显著, TVETI可以实现区域尺度地表蒸散发的快速估算。  相似文献   

16.
青藏高原西部区域多年冻土分布模拟及其下限估算   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
南卓铜  黄培培  赵林 《地理学报》2013,68(3):318-327
准确评估青藏高原西部多年冻土的空间分布及多年冻土下限深度情况对该区地下水资源利用、生态环境保护有重要意义.本文依托科技基础性工作专项“青藏高原多年冻土本底调查”在该区及周边取得的冻土调查资料,利用遥感数据和扩展地面冻结数模型模拟了该区多年冻土的空间分布,调查区的模拟验证表明该方法有较高的精度.在此基础上,根据有限的地温实测资料建立了地温与位置、高程、坡向和太阳辐射的关系,并根据地温-下限关系估算了该区多年冻土下限深度的分布情况.研究表明,该区有多年冻土约占36.9%,季节冻土占57.5%,多年冻土主要分布在34°N~36.5°N范围的喀喇昆仑、西昆仑一带,季节冻土主要分布在塔里木盆地和34°N以南地区.阿里高原及以南是岛状多年冻土分布区域,其多年冻土分布面积少于此前出版的冻土图所绘制的.青藏高原西部区域的多年冻土下限深度整体表现为由东南-西北逐渐加深.  相似文献   

17.
In the current generation of global dispersion maps of surface waves, the long-wavelength structure seems to be very well determined. There is general agreement in the patterns of global phase velocity anomalies up to harmonic degree 16. However, the shorter-wavelength structure varies significantly between published maps, and it appears that this part of the models depends strongly on the inversion technique and on the data set of surface-wave dispersion (usually phase measurements). Polarization data depend on the lateral gradient of phase velocity and hence are more sensitive to shorter-wavelength structure than phase data; thus, including these data should enhance resolution. In this paper, I demonstrate that polarization data of long-period surface waves (80 s), as a function of frequency, can be reliably measured using a multitaper technique. the resulting off-great-circle arrival angles of the surface-wave packets are relatively easy to interpret within a ray-theoretical framework. Our data base of three-component recordings is now large enough to provide useful constraints on global dispersion maps, particularly on the shorter-wavelength parts. Apart from the phase velocity model itself, a possible misorientation of the horizontal components at each station is included in a non-linear inversion as an additional independent model parameter. This gives a significant improvement in the fit to the data. Misorientations of more than 3° are probable for at least four of the 37 stations investigated.  相似文献   

18.
Summary. A non-steady-state theoretical model is used to predict the present variation of temperature with depth in two boreholes in the Devon Island ice cap, Arctic Canada. The boreholes are 300 m apart and one of them reaches bedrock. The heat transfer equation is solved numerically with the record of past temperatures obtained from measurements of the variations of oxygen—isotope ratio with depth in the cores as surface boundary condition. The effects of ice advection, refreezing of meltwater percolating from the surface (the amount of which is recorded in the cores), heating due to firn compaction and ice deformation, and heat flow in the bedrock below the ice sheet are all included in the model. The free parameters are geothermal heat flux, present surface temperature and heat loss at the surface which depends on the depth of meltwater penetration and other factors. Agreement between observed and predicted temperature—depth profiles is very close. Latent heat released by percolating meltwater is the predominating factor in determining the temperature distribution in the upper half of each borehole. The temperature distribution is insensitive to the value of the factor used to convert oxygen—isotope ratio to temperature.  相似文献   

19.
A tomographic inversion technique that inverts traveltimes to obtain a model of the subsurface in terms of velocities and interfaces is presented. It uses a combination of refraction, wide-angle reflection and normal-incidence data, it simultaneously inverts for velocities and interface depths, and it is able to quantify the errors and trade-offs in the final model. The technique uses an iterative linearized approach to the non-linear traveltime inversion problem. The subsurface is represented as a set of layers separated by interfaces, across which the velocity may be discontinuous. Within each layer the velocity varies in two dimensions and has a continuous first derivative. Rays are traced in this medium using a technique based on ray perturbation theory, and two-point ray tracing is avoided by interpolating the traveltimes to the receivers from a roughly equidistant fan of rays. The calculated traveltimes are inverted by simultaneously minimizing the misfit between the data and calculated traveltimes, and the roughness of the model. This 'smoothing regularization' stabilizes the solution of the inverse problem. In practice, the first iterations are performed with a high level of smoothing. As the inversion proceeds, the level of smoothing is gradually reduced until the traveltime residual is at the estimated level of noise in the data. At this point, a minimum-feature solution is obtained, which should contain only those features discernible over the noise.
The technique is tested on a synthetic data set, demonstrating its accuracy and stability and also illustrating the desirability of including a large number of different ray types in an inversion.  相似文献   

20.
b
In this paper, we apply the boundary element method (BEM) to the 2-D steady state heat flow problem of what would be the perturbation to the regional temperature gradient, and hence heat flow density, determined from temperatures measured in a borehole that passes close to, but does not penetrate, a body of anomalous thermal properties. This type of problem with an infinity boundary is particularly well suited to the BEM.
The results have been compared with those obtained from analytical solutions for bodies of simple shape; it is found that for the worst case of a close approach to a boundary of small radius of curvature, a numerical modelling error of less than 1 per cent can still be obtained provided the length of each element is less than the shortest distance between the calculation point and the object.  相似文献   

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