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1.
This study examines the effect of the angle of seismic incidence θ on the fragility curves of bridges. Although currently, fragility curves of bridges are usually expressed only as a function of intensity measure of ground motion (IM) such as peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, or Sa(ω1), in this study they are expressed as a function of IM with θ as a parameter. Lognormal distribution function is used for this purpose with fragility parameters, median cm and standard deviation ζ to be estimated for each value of θ chosen from 0 < θ < 360°. A nonlinear 3D finite element dynamic analysis is performed, and key response values are calculated as demand on the bridge under a set of acceleration time histories with different IM values representing the seismic hazard in Los Angeles area. This method is applied to typical straight reinforced concrete bridges located in California. The results are validated with existing empirical damage data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Even though the sample bridges are regular and symmetric with respect to the longitudinal axis, the results indicate that the weakest direction is neither longitudinal nor transverse. Therefore, if the angle of seismic incidence is not considered, the damageability of a bridge can be underestimated depending on the incidence angle of seismic wave. Because a regional highway transportation network is composed of hundreds or even thousands of bridges, its vulnerability can also be underestimated. Hence, it is prudent to use fragility curves taking the incident angle of seismic waves into consideration as developed here when the seismic performance of a highway network is to be analyzed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Earthquakes are generally clustered, both in time and space. Conventionally, each cluster is made of foreshocks, the mainshock, and aftershocks. Seismic damage can possibly accumulate because of the effects of multiple earthquakes in one cluster and/or because the structure is unrepaired between different clusters. Typically, the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework neglects seismic damage accumulation. This is because (i) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) only refers to mainshocks and (ii) classical fragility curves represent the failure probability in one event, of given intensity, only. However, for life cycle assessment, it can be necessary to account for the build-up of seismic losses because of damage in multiple events. It has been already demonstrated that a Markovian model (i.e., a Markov chain), accounting for damage accumulation in multiple mainshocks, can be calibrated by maintaining PSHA from the classical PBEE framework and replacing structural fragility with a set of state-dependent fragility curves. In fact, the Markov chain also works when damage accumulates in multiple aftershocks from a single mainshock of known magnitude and location, if aftershock PSHA replaces classical PSHA. Herein, this model is extended further, developing a Markovian model that accounts, at the same time, for damage accumulation: (i) within any mainshock–aftershock seismic sequence and (ii) among multiple sequences. The model is illustrated through applications to a series of six-story reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings designed for three sites with different seismic hazard levels in Italy. The time-variant reliability assessment results are compared with the classical PBEE approach and the accumulation model that only considers mainshocks, so as to address the relevance of aftershocks for life cycle assessment.  相似文献   

3.
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4.
In a seismically active region, structures may be subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for repair or retrofit between the events. This study quantifies the aftershock vulnerability of four modern ductile reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings in California by conducting incremental dynamic analysis of nonlinear MDOF analytical models. Based on the nonlinear dynamic analysis results, collapse and damage fragility curves are generated for intact and damaged buildings. If the building is not severely damaged in the mainshock, its collapse capacity is unaffected in the aftershock. However, if the building is extensively damaged in the mainshock, there is a significant reduction in its collapse capacity in the aftershock. For example, if an RC frame experiences 4% or more interstory drift in the mainshock, the median capacity to resist aftershock shaking is reduced by about 40%. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of different measures of physical damage observed in the mainshock‐damaged buildings for predicting the reduction in collapse capacity of the damaged building in subsequent aftershocks. These physical damage indicators for the building are chosen such that they quantify the qualitative red tagging (unsafe for occupation) criteria employed in post‐earthquake evaluation of RC frames. The results indicated that damage indicators related to the drift experienced by the damaged building best predicted the reduced aftershock collapse capacities for these ductile structures. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.  相似文献   

6.
基于OpenSEES平台,以某近海刚构桥桥墩为例,选取符合场地类型的地震波,并根据地震记录构造主余震序列。运用"能力需求比"分析方法建立不同服役时间节点桥墩控制截面在不同损伤状态条件下的地震易损性曲线,研究氯离子侵蚀和主余震序列对桥墩抗震性能的影响。结果表明:同一损伤状态的超越概率随着服役时间延长和PGA增大而不断变大,且随着损伤状态等级提高,超越概率逐渐降低。轻微损伤状态下,主余震序列对桥墩易损性影响较小;中等损伤、严重破坏和完全倒塌状态下,同一服役期,考虑主余震序列作用下桥墩的超越概率相比于仅考虑主震作用明显增大。  相似文献   

7.
The main objective of the present study is to develop seismic fragility curves of an idealized pile-supported wharf with batter piles through a practical framework. Proposing quantitative limit states, analytical fragility curves are developed considering three engineering demand parameters (EDPs), including displacement ductility factor (µd), differential settlement between deck and behind land (DS) and normalized residual horizontal displacement (NRHD). Analytical fragility curves are generated using the results of a numerical model. So, the accuracy and reliability of resulted fragility curves directly depend on how accurate the seismic demand quantities are estimated. In addition, the seismic performance of pile-supported wharves is highly influenced by geotechnical properties of the soil structure system. Hence, a sensitivity analysis using the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method is performed to evaluate the effects of geotechnical parameters uncertainties in the seismic performance of the wharf.Herein, the seismic performance of the wharf structure is simulated using the representative FLAC2D model and performing nonlinear time history analyses under a suit of eight ground motion records. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is used to estimate the seismic demand quantities. As a prevailing tool, adopted fragility curves are useful to seismic risk assessment. They can also be used to optimize wharf-retrofit methods. The results of sensitivity analysis demonstrate that uncertainties associated with the porosity of loose sand contribute most to the variance of both NRHD and µd. While in the case of differential settlement, the friction angle of loose sand contributes most to the variance.  相似文献   

8.

In general, historical earthquake events have shown that a strong mainshock might trigger several aftershocks, which can cause additional damage and seismic risk to the structures. This work tries to investigate the aftershock duration on seismic fragility of the shield building in consideration of initial damage. For this purpose, a three-dimensional finite element model of shield building is established using a concrete damage plastic model. A series of mainshock-aftershock sequences with different durations are selected and scaled to match the target spectrum. A damage ratio of tensile damage is developed to evaluate the additional damage caused by mainshock and aftershocks. Aftershocks with three durations, namely, 20 s, 40 s, and 60 s, are used to study the effect of initial damage levels and aftershock durations on the accumulative damage and seismic fragility of the shield building. The results indicate that those aftershocks with longer durations may wreak more worse cumulative damage to the post-mainshock damaged structure and significantly affect the probability of exceedance. It is also indicated that the initial damage levels have a significant impact on the fragility curves of the shield building. This work can directly incorporate the influence of mainshock-damaged states into the fragility assessment for Nuclear Power Plant.

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9.
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10.
This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of utilizing advanced ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to evaluate the seismic performance of a structure subject to near‐source ground motions. Ordinary records are, in addition, utilized to demonstrate the robustness of the advanced IM with respect to record selection and scaling. To perform nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDAs), ground motions need to be selected; as a result, choosing records that are not representative of the site hazard can alter the seismic performance of structures. The median collapse capacity (in terms of IM), for example, can be systematically dictated by including a few aggressive or benign pulse‐like records into the record set used for analyses. In this paper, the elastic‐based IM such as the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (Sa) or a vector of Sa and epsilon has been demonstrated to be deficient to assess the structural responses subject to pulse‐like motions. Using advanced IMs can be, however, more accurate in terms of probabilistic response prediction. Scaling earthquake records using advanced IMs (e.g. inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi, and IM 1I&2E; the latter is for the significant higher‐mode contribution structures) subject to ordinary and/or pulse‐like records is efficient, sufficient, and robust relative to record selection and scaling. As a result, detailed record selection is not necessary, and records with virtually any magnitude, distance, epsilon and pulse period can be selected for NDAs. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
In October and November 2002, the Molise region (southern Italy) was struck by two moderate magnitude earthquakes within 24 hours followed by an one month long aftershocks sequence. Soon after the first mainshock (October 31st, 10.32 UTC, Mw 5.7), we deployed a temporary network of 35 three-component seismic stations. At the time of occurrence of the second main event (November 1st, 15.08 UTC, Mw 5.7) the eight local stations already installed allowed us to well constrain the hypocentral parameters. We present the location of the two mainshocks and 1929 aftershocks with 2 < ML < 4.2. Earthquake distribution reveals a E-trending 15 km long fault system composed by two main segments ruptured by the two mainshocks. Aftershocks define two sub-vertical dextral strike-slip fault segments in agreement with the mainshock fault plane solutions. P- and T-axes retrieved from 170 aftershocks focal mechanisms show a coherent kinematics: with a sub-horizontal NW and NE-trending P and T-axes, respectively. For a small percentage of focal mechanisms (∼ 10%) a rotation of T axes is observed, resulting in thrust solutions. The Apenninic active normal fault belt is located about 80 km westward of the 2002 epicentral area and significant seismicity occurs only 20-50 km to the east, in the Gargano promontory. Seismic hazard was thought to be small for this region because neither historical earthquake are reported in the Italian seismic catalogue or active faults were previously identified. In this context, the 2002 seismic sequence highlights the existence of trans-pressional active tectonics in between the extensional Apenninic belt and the Apulian foreland.  相似文献   

12.
Practical methods for the probability‐based seismic assessment of structures make use of estimates of demands produced by earthquakes of different intensities. The uncertainties associated with these estimates are highly dependent on the variable adopted as the intensity measure (IM, e.g., PGA, spectral acceleration, etc.). This generates the need to compare the efficiency of an originally adopted IMwith that of a new candidate. This implies comparing the dispersion of the demand measure (DM, e.g., maximum interstorey drift ratio, ductility demand, etc.) conditional to each of the two IMs. In order to obtain the demand estimates in a conventional way, a full set of dynamic response analyses should be performed for each IM under scrutiny, i.e., multiple records scaled at several fixed values of each IM. The procedure developed here serves to accelerate this comparison avoiding the effort required to evaluate the dynamic responses of the structure for all the ground motion time histories considered every time that a new IM is adopted. For this purpose, use is made of available results of analyses performed for a different (i.e., the original) IM. Two methods are proposed: the direct method involves performing a regression of the results obtained from the original analyses, taking the candidate IM as the independent variable. The indirect method involves rebuilding the probability density function of the DM given a defined value of the candidate IM by means of the total probability theorem, using the results of the original analyses and certain data relating the two IMs. The proposed methods have been tested by application to several SDOF systems with different periods and different cyclic‐response backbone curves. The conditions affecting their approximation are explored, and some criteria to improve them are identified. The procedure can also be used to determine the optimum value of a parameter to be used in a parameter‐based IM. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The seismic damage of internal partitions may cause significant earthquake loss; this phenomenon is caused by (a) their tendency to exhibit damage for low demand levels and (b) the consequent loss of inventory and breakdown that their collapse can cause. Quasi‐static tests are performed on six 5‐m‐high plasterboard internal partitions, which represent typical partitions in industrial and commercial buildings in the European area. A steel test setup is designed to transfer the load, which is provided by the actuator, to the partition. The testing protocol provided by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 461 is adopted for the quasi‐static tests. The typical failure mode of the specimens is the buckling of a steel stud, which involves the boards that are attached to the buckled stud. The buckling failure usually concentrates across the plasterboard horizontal joints. A frictional behavior is exhibited for low demand levels, whereas a pinched behavior is shown for moderate‐to‐high demand levels. The interstory drift ratios required to reach a given damage limit state are evaluated using a predefined damage scheme. Based on the experimental data, the fragility curves for three different damage states (DS1, DS2, and DS3) are estimated. The fragility curve yields median interstory drift ratio values of 0.28%, 0.81%, and 2.05% and logarithmic standard deviations of 0.39, 0.42, and 0.46 for DS1, DS2, and DS3, respectively. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
This paper introduces and evaluates a methodology for the aftershock seismic assessment of buildings taking explicitly into account residual drift demands after the mainshock (i.e., postmainshock residual interstory drifts, RIDRo). The methodology is applied to a testbed four‐story steel moment‐resisting building designed with modern seismic design provisions when subjected to a set of near‐fault mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences that induce five levels of RIDRo. Once the postmainshock residual drift is induced to the building model, a postmainshock incremental dynamic analysis is performed under each aftershock to obtain its collapse capacity and its capacity associated to demolition (i.e., the capacity to reach or exceed a 2% residual drift). The effect of additional sources of stiffness and strength (i.e., interior gravity frames and slab contribution) and the polarity of the aftershocks are examined in this study. Results of this investigation show that the collapse potential under aftershocks strongly depends on the modeling approach (i.e., the aftershock collapse potential is modified when additional sources of lateral stiffness and strength are included in the analytical model). Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the aftershock capacity associated to demolition (i.e., the aftershock collapse capacity associated to a residual interstory drift that leads to an imminent demolition) is lower than that of the aftershock collapse capacity, which mean that this parameter should be a better measure of the building residual capacity against aftershocks. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.  相似文献   

16.
We investigate mainshock slip distribution and aftershock activity of the 8 January 2013 M w?=?5.7 Lemnos earthquake, north Aegean Sea. We analyse the seismic waveforms to better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of earthquake rupture within the seismogenic layer of the crust. Peak slip values range from 50 to 64 cm and mean slip values range from 10 to 12 cm. The slip patches of the event extend over an area of dimensions 16?×?16 km2. We also relocate aftershock catalog locations to image seismic fault dimensions and test earthquake transfer models. The relocated events allowed us to identify the active faults in this area of the north Aegean Sea by locating two, NE–SW linear patterns of aftershocks. The aftershock distribution of the mainshock event clearly reveals a NE–SW striking fault about 40 km offshore Lemnos Island that extends from 2 km up to a depth of 14 km. After the mainshock most of the seismic activity migrated to the east and to the north of the hypocenter due to (a) rupture directivity towards the NE and (b) Coulomb stress transfer. A stress inversion analysis based on 14 focal mechanisms of aftershocks showed that the maximum horizontal stress is compressional at N84°E. The static stress transfer analysis for all post-1943 major events in the North Aegean shows no evidence for triggering of the 2013 event. We suggest that the 2013 event occurred due to tectonic loading of the North Aegean crust.  相似文献   

17.
The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.  相似文献   

18.
The aim of this paper is to adjust behaviour models for each class of structure for vulnerability assessment by using ambient vibration. A simple model based on frequencies, mode shapes and damping, taken from ambient vibrations, allows computation of the response of the structures and comparison of inter‐storey drifts with the limits found in the literature for the slight damage grade, considered here as the limit of elastic behaviour. Two complete methodologies for building fragility curves are proposed: (1) using a multi‐degree of freedom system including higher modes and full seismic ground‐motion and (2) using a single‐degree of freedom model considering the fundamental mode f0 of the structure and ground‐motion displacement response spectra SD(f0). These two methods were applied to the city of Grenoble, where 60 buildings were studied. Fragility curves for slight damage were derived for the various masonry and reinforced concrete classes of buildings. A site‐specific earthquake scenario, taking into account local site conditions, was considered, corresponding to an ML = 5.5 earthquake at a distance of 15 km. The results show the benefits of using experimental models to reduce variability of the slight damage fragility curve. Moreover, by introducing the experimental modal model of the buildings, it is possible to improve seismic risk assessment at an overall scale (the city) or a local scale (the building) for the first damage grade (slight damage). This level of damage, of great interest for moderate seismic‐prone regions, may contribute to the seismic loss assessment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Current seismic design codes and damage estimation tools neglect the influence of successive events on structures. However, recent earthquakes have demonstrated that structures damaged during an initial event (mainshock) are more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). This increased vulnerability to damage translates to increased likelihood of loss of use, property, and life. Thus, a reliable risk assessment tool is required that characterizes the risk of the undamaged structure subjected to an initial event and the risk of the damaged structure under subsequent events. In this paper, a framework for development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a building damaged during a mainshock will exhibit a given damage state following one or more aftershocks. Thus, the framework provides a method for characterizing the risk associated with damage accumulation in the structure. The framework includes the following: (i) creation of a numerical model of the structure; (ii) characterization of building damage states; (iii) generation of a suite of mainshock–aftershocks; (iv) mainshock–aftershock analyses; and (v) development of aftershock fragility curves using probabilistic aftershock demand models, defined as a linear regression of aftershock demand–intensity pairs in a logarithmic space, and damage‐state prediction models. The framework is not limited to a specific structure type but requires numerical models defining structural response and linking structural response with damage. In the current study, non‐ductile RC frames (low‐rise, mid‐rise, and high‐rise) are selected as case studies for the application of the framework. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The study presented in this paper addresses the issue of engineering validation of Graves and Pitarka's (2010) hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with respect to some well‐recorded historical events and considering the response of multiple degrees of freedom (MDoF) systems. Herein, validation encompasses detailed assessment of how similar is, for a given event, the seismic response due to comparable hybrid broadband simulated records and real records. In the first part of this study, in order to investigate the dynamic response of a wide range of buildings, MDoF structures are modeled as elastic continuum systems consisting of a combination of a flexural cantilever beam coupled with a shear cantilever beam. A number of such continuum systems are selected including the following: (1) 16 oscillation periods between 0.1 and 6 s; (2) three shear to flexural deformation ratios to represent respectively shear‐wall structures, dual systems, and moment‐resisting frames; and (3) two stiffness distributions along the height of the systems, that is, uniform and linear. Demand spectra in terms of generalized maximum interstory drift ratio (IDR) and peak floor acceleration (PFA) are derived using simulations and actual recordings for four historical earthquakes, namely, the 1979 Mw 6.5 Imperial Valley earthquake, 1989 Mw 6.8 Loma Prieta earthquake, 1992 Mw 7.2 Landers earthquake, and 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge earthquake. In the second part, for two nonlinear case study structures, the IDR and PFA distributions over the height and their statistics, are obtained and compared for both recorded and simulated time histories. These structures are steel moment frames designed for high seismic hazard, 20‐story high‐rise and 6‐story low‐rise buildings. The results from this study highlight the similarities and differences between simulated and real records in terms of median and intra‐event standard deviation of logs of seismic demands for MDoF building systems. This general agreement, in a broad range of moderate and long periods, may provide confidence in the use of the simulation methodology for engineering applications, whereas the discrepancies, statistically significant only at short periods, may help in addressing improvements in generation of synthetic records. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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