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1.
Vulnerability 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(3):268-281
This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. 相似文献
2.
《Global Environmental Change》2005,15(2):139-149
This paper examines contemporary national scale responses to tropical storm risk in a small island in the Caribbean to derive lessons for adapting to climate change. There is little empirical evidence to guide national planners on how to adapt to climate change, and less still on how to build on past adaptation experiences. The paper investigates the construction of institutional resilience and the process of adaptation to tropical storm risk by the Cayman Islands’ Government from 1988 to 2002. It explains the roles of persuasion, exposure and collective action as key components in developing the ability to buffer external disturbance using models of institutional economics and social resilience concepts. The study finds that self-efficacy, strong local and international support networks, combined with a willingness to act collectively and to learn from mistakes appear to have increased the resilience of the Cayman Islands’ Government to tropical storm risk. The lessons learned from building resilience to storm risk can contribute to the creation of national level adaptive capacity to climate change, but climate change has to be prioritised before these lessons can be transferred. 相似文献
3.
Andrew Challinor Tim Wheeler Chris Garforth Peter Craufurd Amir Kassam 《Climatic change》2007,83(3):381-399
Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant
role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop
systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the
adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts
of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety
of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed
by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved
highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of
farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that
governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience
to climate change at local, national and transnational level. 相似文献
4.
武占云 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):559-569
空间规划是适应气候变化的重要政策工具之一,将适应气候变化目标纳入空间规划已经成为国际主流政策。中国适应气候变化的空间规划仍面临诸多问题和挑战,包括气候适应目标和理念薄弱、气候变化风险评估与空间规划尺度不匹配、适应和减缓策略的协同机制欠缺、技术标准和法律法规不完善等。文章结合国家适应气候变化战略和国土空间规划体系重构的目标要求,研究提出适应气候变化导向的国土空间规划框架体系和技术思路,以及将适应气候变化纳入空间规划编制审批、技术标准、实施监督以及法规政策等各个环节的思路与建议,以期通过空间规划的编制与监督实施促进适应气候变化目标的实现。 相似文献
5.
Assessing adaptive capacity to tropical cyclones in the East coast of India: a pilot study of public response to cyclone warning information 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Ability to respond positively to climate hazards (also called adaptive capacity) first requires a perception of the risk due to that hazard and then formulation, evaluation and implementation of response by the exposed units with the view to reducing impacts. From a policy perspective, facilitating the process of perception of risk (and sometimes formulation, evaluation and implementation of response) often requires some kind of generation and communication of information for use by the exposed units. For example, the cyclone early warning system is a policy intervention which aims to generate and communicate information to the people about a possible cyclone occurrence, so as to facilitate timely and appropriate response such as evacuating the risk prone areas and/or taking refuge in a cyclone shelter by the people in danger. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many a time the cyclone warning message is not able to generate the desired response from the target audience. An understanding of the factors underlying the process of perception, formulation, evaluation and response by the exposed units to manage cyclone risk is required to close the gap between the desired response and the actual response by the exposed units to the warning information. In this paper we attempt to identify such factors in the Indian context. We conducted an exploratory study on the East coast of India to identify the factors that affect the perceptual and evaluative processes underlying the ‘warning-response’ process i.e. evacuation behavior of the exposed units once they have received the cyclone warning. The findings highlight some important factors that could be addressed to improve the warning-response process and hence enhance the ability of people to respond to cyclone risk. 相似文献
6.
第二承诺期土地利用、土地利用变化与林业规则的各方观点及对策建议 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
由土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动产生的生态系统的固碳作用,是降低大气中温室气体浓度增加速度的重要途径之一。1997-2001年,经历了长达4 a的艰苦谈判,最终达成了第一承诺期附件一国家利用LULUCF的规则。2008年开始,国际社会开始磋商第二承诺期附件一国家如何利用LULUCF活动的规则。主要缔约方就第二承诺期LULUCF规则提出了各自的观点,发达国家的观点主要包括提高开展碳汇活动的积极性、降低LULUCF规则的复杂性和减少成本、增加《京都议定书》3.4条款下的合格活动等,其目的是在第二承诺期能够利用更多的碳汇完成减排义务;发展中国家主要提出要系统地考虑土地利用造成的温室气体排放和CO2的吸收。最后,针对附件一缔约方在第二承诺期利用LULUCF活动规则,提出了我国应采取的对策建议。 相似文献
7.
由土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动产生的生态系统的固碳作用,是降低大气中温室气体浓度增加速度的重要途径之一。1997-2001年,经历了长达4 a的艰苦谈判,最终达成了第一承诺期附件一国家利用LULUCF的规则。2008年开始,国际社会开始磋商第二承诺期附件一国家如何利用LULUCF活动的规则。主要缔约方就第二承诺期LULUCF规则提出了各自的观点,发达国家的观点主要包括提高开展碳汇活动的积极性、降低LULUCF规则的复杂性和减少成本、增加《京都议定书》3.4条款下的合格活动等,其目的是在第二承诺期能够利用更多的碳汇完成减排义务;发展中国家主要提出要系统地考虑土地利用造成的温室气体排放和CO2的吸收。最后,针对附件一缔约方在第二承诺期利用LULUCF活动规则,提出了我国应采取的对策建议。 相似文献
8.
气候变化影响与适应问题的谈判进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
从《气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）第一次缔约方会议到目前为止，几乎历次会议都涉及气候变化影响与适应的谈判内容，但谈判进展甚微。通过综述《公约》谈判进程中与适应气候变化有关的主要决定，分析了适应气候变化影响与适应问题谈判的制约因素，最后提出了我国在气候变化影响与适应问题谈判中应持的立场。 相似文献
9.
Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability. 相似文献
10.
采用作物模型与数理统计相结合的方法,利用长期历史气象资料,以作物模型和地理信息系统技术为工具,系统分析了河南地区旱稻生育期水分盈亏情况。以模型模拟的雨养条件下实际蒸散量相对于潜在条件下的蒸散量(即需水量)的亏缺率,即水分亏缺指数,以雨养条件下产量相对于潜在产量的损失率(即灾损指数)作为产量灾损强度评价指标,从受旱程度和产量损失两个角度构建干旱风险评估模型,进行干旱风险评估。结果表明:河南省旱稻生育期集中在6—9月,水分亏缺最多的阶段为出苗—穗分化阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.50~0.60,其次是开花—成熟阶段和穗分化—开花阶段,水分亏缺指数变化在0.11~0.43;全生育期水分亏缺指数在0.36~0.50。出苗—穗分化阶段干旱发生的风险最大,其次是开花—成熟阶段,穗分化—开花阶段的最小。河南旱稻生育期干旱风险呈现为由东南向西北逐渐升高的分布,其中三门峡、济源西部一带风险最高,洛阳南部和南阳西北部一带最低,黄河以北大部地区和豫东、豫南地区风险居中。 相似文献
11.
A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ioan Fazey Mike Kesby Anna Evely Ian Latham Daniel Wagatora Jude-Edward Hagasua Mark S. Reed Mike Christie 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):713-728
Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process. 相似文献
12.
为揭示造成火山强迫气候响应模拟不确定性的原因,第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）设立了火山强迫的气候响应模拟比较计划（VolMIP)。该计划由基于历史火山爆发的理想火山扰动试验组成,包括三组主要的试验：第一组关注短期（季节至年际）大气动力响应;第二组关注海气耦合系统的长期（年际至年代际）响应;第三组关注气候系统对火山群的响应。VolMIP旨在通过给定相同的辐射强迫并进行多成员集合模拟,揭示模式对外强迫响应的不确定性,通过设定不同的背景气候态,阐明内部变率和外强迫对气候响应的相对贡献。 相似文献
13.
The ‘Anthropocene’ concept provides a conceptual framework that encapsulates the current global situation in which society has an ever-greater dominating influence on Earth System functioning. Simulation models used to understand earth system dynamics provide early warning, scenario analysis and evaluation of environmental management and policies. This paper aims to assess the extent to which current models represent the Anthropocene and suggest ways forward. Current models do not fully reflect the typical characteristics of the Anthropocene, such as societal influences and interactions with natural processes, feedbacks and system dynamics, tele-connections, tipping points, thresholds and regime shifts. Based on an analysis of current model representations of Anthropocene dynamics, we identify ways to enhance the role of modeling tools to better help us understand Anthropocene dynamics and address sustainability issues arising from them. To explore sustainable futures (‘safe and operating spaces’), social processes and anthropogenic drivers of biophysical processes must be incorporated, to allow for a spectrum of potential impacts and responses at different societal levels. In this context, model development can play a major role in reconciling the different epistemologies of the disciplines that need to collaborate to capture changes in the functioning of socio-ecological systems. Feedbacks between system functioning and underlying endogenous drivers should be represented, rather than assuming the drivers to be exogenous to the modelled system or stationary in time and space. While global scale assessments are important, the global scale dynamics need to be connected to local realities and vice versa. The diversity of stakeholders and potential questions requires a diversification of models, avoiding the convergence towards single models that are able to answer a wide range of questions, but without sufficient specificity. The novel concept of the Anthropocene can help to develop innovative model representations and model architectures that are better suited to assist in designing sustainable solutions targeted at the users of the models and model results. 相似文献
14.
Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing
Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century. 相似文献
15.
Climate science to date demonstrates that natural and human systems must urgently adapt. Adaptation refers to changes in societies and ecological systems as they respond to both actual and anticipated impacts of the changing climate. While adaptation is not limited to the level of planning and policy, existing adaptation practice privileges institutional action. We argue that the definition of adaptation should be broadened to include the small, incremental changes made in our daily lives to accommodate the shifting ecologies in which we live. Drawing on critical adaptation research and our own ethnographic fieldwork in the Global South, we define everyday adaptation as the shifted ways a person works, eats, lives and thinks in response to climate realities, rather than the hardening of coastlines or the relocation of vulnerable structures. We integrate and build on existing scholarship on adaptation and the everyday to theorize the logics of everyday, hyperlocal adaptation. This hyperlocal scale is a critical component of any definition of adaptation and a useful lens for studying the way much of the global population adapts and will continue to adapt their lives to climate change. We offer two theoretical components of adaptation revealed by the everyday - adaptation labor and value adaptation – as lenses to see changes in everyday action. Through considering hyperlocal action, we then identify and explore four logics of everyday adaptation actions: lifestyle stability, socio-ecological reactivity, livelihood flexibility, and community capacity. Everyday adaptations are limited by individuals’ capacity to adapt and thereby determine the longevity, livability, and quality of life of places on the frontlines of climate change. We argue for understanding the aggregate effects of everyday adaptation in order to better align the actions of those living with climate change in their everyday lives and the large-scale adaptation projects aiming to protect them. 相似文献
16.
气候变暖是当今时代所面临的最大挑战之一。在全球应对气候变暖的同时,作为前沿经济理念和发展模式的低碳经济应运而生了。按照低碳经济的内涵,江西发展低碳经济面临着机遇和挑战,总体上对正在实现“进位赶超、跨越发展、加快崛起”的江西是后发优势。为此,要做好八个方面的工作：坚持发展与保护并重不动摇,全社会树立低碳经济理念与方式,持续开展节能减排,大力发展低碳能源,着力改善自然生态系统质量,建立低碳与生态工业园区,加强农村环境综合整治,以科技创新支持低碳经济。 相似文献
17.
针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。 相似文献
18.
Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system. 相似文献
19.
《Global Environmental Change》2000,10(1):57-68
Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or `co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied `bottom up’ to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. 相似文献