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1.
碳酸锂供需矛盾日益突出,科学预测未来中国碳酸锂需求量,对碳酸锂生产、进出口计划以及国家能源政策的制定具有重要意义。结合基于灰色关联分析和ARIMA-GM-BP神经网络的组合模型,选取2002—2021年中国人均GDP、产业结构、城镇化率、润滑脂产量、陶瓷产量、玻璃产量、空调产量、锂离子电池产量和新能源汽车产量作为需求情景预测的主要驱动变量,对中国2025—2035年碳酸锂需求进行预测,在此基础上提出了针对性的政策建议。结果表明：所选取的驱动变量与碳酸锂需求具有较高的关联性,且组合模型较单一模型预测精度更高。3种情景下2025年、2030年和2035年预测的碳酸锂需求量均值分别为42万t、69万t和103万t。 相似文献
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电力需求的不断增长和环境问题的日益突出,使我国必须加大力度发展更为高效和清洁的核电能源.本文在系统收集全球和我国铀资源、产量和需求数据的基础上,分析了全球和我国铀资源供需形势,并对未来国际铀价进行了初步预测.结合我国核电发展趋势,预测了未来我国核电对天然铀的需求情况.正常发展情景下,2030年当年核电对天然铀的需求量为... 相似文献
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工业能源消费碳排放研究对指导区域CO2减排和优化碳达峰路径至关重要,选取1995—2021年淮海经济区徐州市的统计年鉴数据,通过TAPIO脱钩模型、STIRPAT模型和SPSS分析软件研究了徐州市规模以上工业企业能源消费CO2排放量与经济增长之间的脱钩关系,构建了工业能源消费CO2排放量预测模型以及预测了2022—2030年不同情景下CO2排放量。结果表明：徐州市规模以上工业企业能源消费CO2排放量呈先缓慢上升、后快速上升,最后保持稳定的趋势,工业能源消费CO2排放量从1995年的2 596.18万t增长到2021年的9 050.43万t,年增长率约为11.11%。徐州市工业能源消费CO2排放量与经济发展之间以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主。基准情景下,2030年徐州市规模以上工业企业能源消费CO2排放量为12 409.25万t,产业结构优化情景下,徐州市达峰时工业CO2排放量为11 855.19万t,... 相似文献
4.
中国低碳能源发展潜力及对国家减排贡献的初步研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
科学评估低碳能源发展潜力及对实现国家2020年单位GDP碳排放降低40%～45%目标的贡献,对于制定应对气候变化对策和明确低碳能源发展战略具有重要现实价值.论文设置了中国低碳能源的两种发展情景,并从总量、分品种和分领域评价了两种情景下低碳能源的发展潜力和减排潜力.在此基础上,系统评估了两种情景下中国低碳能源对实现国家减排目标的贡献率.评估结果表明: 1)发展低碳能源对于完成国家减排目标至关重要,在平稳、较快和高速经济增长3种方案下,通过发展低碳能源对实现国家减排目标的最低贡献为12.58%,最高则可达30.25%; 2)经济增长速度越快,低碳能源对实现国家减排目标的贡献越低; 3)若要保持较快的经济增长速度,则一方面要加大对低碳能源的投入,同时则需大力优化经济结构,提高碳生产率,控制碳排放总量的快速增加. 相似文献
5.
天然气作为一种优质的清洁能源,在我国低碳经济的发展要求下受到越来越多的关注,分析我国未来天然气需求量可以为我国能源政策提供相关借鉴。影响天然气需求的因素很多,这些因素可以极大影响天然气的需求预测结果。从影响天然气需求预测的影响因子入手,分析了天然气的部门消费量,重点选取工业、生活和交通3个部门作为研究对象,并建立一个混合模型。根据单位根检验、协整方程以及格兰杰因果检验3个因果,确定了天然气需求量的影响因子,然后利用灰色预测和回归分析对每个部门的需求量进行预测。最后,基于以上研究预测我国天然气需求量到2025年将达到6 378亿m3。 相似文献
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水是陕北能源化工基地建设的关键性资源,防治水环境污染是确保能源基地可持续发展重要保障。本文依据陕北能源化工基地建设相关规划,分污染物达标排放、推行清洁生产、部分行业生产污水零排放＋清洁生产等三种情景,对未来陕北地区工业废水和生活污水排放量做了预测。分析结果表明：2020年,陕北地区在污染物达标排放的情景下,COD、NH3-N排放总量分别为53 417 t和9 111 t;在推行清洁生产情景下,COD、NH3-N排放总量分别为35 237 t和5 583 t;在部分行业生产污水零排放＋清洁生产的情景下,COD、NH3-N排放总量分别为25407 t和4 377 t。与2007年水污染物排放量相比,在三种设计情景下,延安COD与NH3-N基本实现减排,而榆林地区COD与NH3-N排放量均超过现状排放量。比较来看,陕北地区在部分行业生产污水零排放＋清洁生产的情景下污染物排放量最小,但COD、NH3-N仍较2007年现状排放量增加12%和56%,即陕北地区未来发展中水环境压力很大,应该采取切实可行的措施大幅度降低污染物排放量。 相似文献
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不锈钢产业是镍最大的消费领域,对全球镍消费趋势起决定性作用.近年来,电动汽车产业逐渐发展,动力电池对镍需求也逐渐得到重视,该领域的镍消费普遍被认为是最具发展潜力的镍消费领域.本文通过对镍需求的历史和现状进行分析,对未来不锈钢及电动汽车领域等重要部门的镍需求进行了展望,认为未来镍需求将由2019年243万t增长至2030年445万t,其中不锈钢领域仍为其第一大消费领域,电池领域上升为第二大消费领域;通过梳理全球镍资源情况及供应开发情况,认为由于受到疫情冲击,2020年镍矿供需形势紧张状态将有所缓解,但随着未来疫情好转,未来几年内镍仍将处于供需紧张状态;此外,通过梳理镍供应链条,本文认为市场对硫酸镍以及硫化镍矿需求未来有望持续增长,这对镍盐价格将形成有力支撑,对推动全球红土镍矿湿法产能建设也将形成一定促进作用. 相似文献
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镓矿资源需求趋势分析与中国镓产业发展思考 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
镓是一种伴生矿,主要与铝、锌、锗的矿物伴生,没有独立的矿床,我国金属镓资源储量丰富。作为重要的半导体材料,镓广泛地应用于无线电通讯、光纤通信、汽车雷达、LED照明、太阳能电池等领域,且金属镓所有用途几乎都和当前现代科技发展及低碳经济、绿色能源和环境保护相关。随着镓消费量的不断增长以及镓应用领域的拓展,金属镓的重要性已经被越来越多的国家注意。本文采用部门分析法分别预测镓在砷化镓、LED、薄膜太阳能领域的应用,预测出全球2020年镓金属需求约410~430 t,并对中国镓产业发展面临的问题进行分析,提出增强下游镓产品竞争力、保护镓金属产能的政策建议。 相似文献
10.
利用IPCC第4次评估公开发布的22个全球气候模式在A1B、A2和B1三种典型排放情景下的未来气温和降水预测结果,结合新安江月分布式水文模型,在对模型验证效果良好的基础上,参照集合预报方法,对未来90年(2010～2099年)气候变化下淮河流域的极端洪水进行预估。研究结果表明,从出现概率来看,淮河流域未来可能发生极端洪水年份的密集程度从大到小依次为A2情景、A1B情景、B1情景。A1B情景下,21世纪下半叶出现极端洪水的可能性增大,A2情景在2035～2065年以及2085年以后是极端洪水发生较为集中的时期。B1情景在21世纪70年代左右发生极端洪水的可能性较大。综合各种极端事件的定义方法,将极端洪水划定3个洪水量级。A2情景预估极端洪水的平均洪量在3种情景中最大,B1情景最小。3种情景未来一级极端洪水发生比例都比历史上偏大,A2情景下增加最多。二级极端洪水都较历史略有减少,三级极端洪水减少最显著。3种情景下各个量级极端洪水所占比例各不相同,A1B和A2情景二级以上极端洪水出现比例较大,B1情景下极端洪水量级多为三级,超1954年的一级极端洪水所占比例较小。 相似文献
11.
A. Aghahosseini D. Bogdanov N. Ghorbani C. Breyer 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(1):17-36
The devastating effects of fossil fuels on the environment, limited natural sources and increasing demand for energy across the world make renewable energy sources more important than in the past. The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference resulted in a global agreement on net zero CO2 emissions shortly after the middle of the twenty-first century, which will lead to a collapse of fossil fuel demand. The focus of the study is to define a cost optimal 100% renewable energy system in Iran by 2030 using an hourly resolution model. The optimal sets of renewable energy technologies, least-cost energy supply, mix of capacities and operation modes were calculated and the role of storage technologies was examined. Two scenarios have been evaluated in this study: a country-wide scenario and an integrated scenario. In the country-wide scenario, renewable energy generation and energy storage technologies cover the country’s power sector electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, the renewable energy generated was able to fulfil both the electricity demand of the power sector and the substantial electricity demand for water desalination and synthesis of industrial gas. By adding sector integration, the total levelized cost of electricity decreased from 45.3 to 40.3 €/MWh. The levelized cost of electricity of 40.3 €/MWh in the integrated scenario is quite cost-effective and beneficial in comparison with other low-carbon but high-cost alternatives such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy. A 100% renewable energy system for Iran is found to be a real policy option. 相似文献
12.
J. B. Alam Z. Wadud J. B. Alam J. W. Polak 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2013,10(5):1075-1082
Transport sector is a major consumer of energy. Concern of energy scarcity and price fluctuations enhanced significance of transport sector in national planning. This paper analyses energy demand for transport services in Bangladesh for different policy scenarios. Aggregate transport demand model is integrated into Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model to forecast consequences of transport policy on energy demand and economy. Demand for imported energy for transport sector is observed to increase from 1.7 million ton of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2005 to 11.8 Mtoe in 2030 for business-as-usual scenario. In increased fuel price scenario, cost of importing fuel for transport sector is projected to increase from 1.37 to more than 14.9 % of Gross Domestic Product during the same period. Country’s energy demand may be reduced by 2 and 4 Mtoe in 2030 by improvement of waterway and railway, respectively. Moreover, by using compressed natural gas in motor vehicles cost of importing fuel may be reduced by US $5 billion annually in 2030 and a further reduction of transport sector energy demand by 9 % can be achieved through eliminating subsidy on fuel. 相似文献
13.
As a main clean energy in China, natural gas has received great attention under the requirement of the low-carbon development strategy. The demand projection of natural gas in China is very important for energy policymakers in future energy sources planning. The natural gas demand is influenced by a series of factors, which have a huge causal impact on demand projection. Therefore, the authors analyzed the influencing factors and the sector consumption of natural gas, and focused on the industrial, residential and transport sector to build a hybrid model. Based on the unit root tests, co-integration test and Granger causality test, the influencing factors of the natural gas demand were identified. Then the grey model and regression analysis were utilized to predict the demand for each factor. Finally, based on the projection above, the total natural gas demand for China will be 6 378.6×108 m3 in 2025. 相似文献
14.
R. Pashangpour F. Faghihi S. Soleymani 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(11):2349-2358
Resource scheduling for both cost and pollution minimization in the power system is so crucial. To reduce the greenhouse gas emission, employing renewable energy resources, especially solar and wind energy, and beside them plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are effective solutions. In industrial factories, using biomass resources for power generation is both economic and environmental approach. In sugarcane company, bagasse is plant fiber residue which is used as fuel. Electric lift trucks, capable of being connected to power grid, could decrease the pollution in industrial transportations. In this paper, scheduling problem for a large-scale sugarcane factory including solar resources, a thermal unit, and electric lift trucks is presented and solved by CPLEX solver in GAMS software. In order to consider uncertainties, different scenarios are noticed. To contribute better understanding of optimization problem, cost, pollution, and charging regime of electric lift trucks are carefully analyzed. The results show that implementation of the biomass electric power generation is effective for reducing cost and amount of emission. 相似文献
15.
Institutional scale operational symbiosis of photovoltaic and cogeneration energy systems 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
M. Mostofi Ph.D. A. H. Nosrat B.Eng. J. M. Pearce Ph.D. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2011,8(1):31-44
Due to the negative environmental effects of fossil fuel combustion, there is a growing interest in both improved efficiency in energy management and a large-scale transition to renewable energy systems. Using both of these strategies, a large institutional-scale hybrid energy system is proposed here, which incorporates both solar photovoltaic energy conversion to supply renewable energy and cogeneration to improve efficiency. In this case, the photovoltaic reduces the run time for the cogeneration to meet load, particularly in peaking air conditioning times. In turn, however, the cogeneration system is used to provide power back up for the photovoltaic during the night and adverse weather conditions. To illustrate the operational symbiosis between these two technical systems, this study provides a case study of a hybrid photovoltaic and cogeration system for the Taleghani hospital in Tehran. Three design scenarios using only existing technologies for such a hybrid system are considered here:1) single cogeneration + photovoltaic, 2) double cogeneration + photovoltaic, 3) single cogeneration + photovoltaic + storage. Numerical simulations for photovoltaic and cogeneration performance both before and after incorporating improved thermal energy management and high efficiency lighting were considered. The results show that the total amount of natural gas required to provide for the hospitals needs could be lowered from the current status by 55 % for scenario 1 and 62 % for both scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. This significant improvement in natural gas consumption illustrates the potential of hybridizing solar photovoltaic systems and cogeneration systems on a large scale. 相似文献
16.
Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources. 相似文献
17.
Walasek Richard A. 《GeoJournal》1981,3(1):37-47
Within the sizable literature on electricity demand relatively little attention is given to regional variations in electricity demand elasticities. This paper investigates 39 electric utility companies having a total of 93 separate operating regions in order to assess the nature of regional electricity demand elasticity variations. Residential, commercial, and industrial demand functions are estimated for each operating region using a flow adjustment model of demand. The resulting electricity price, measure of economic activity, and natural gas price elasticities vary regionally, but not in a systematic manner. The demand elasticities found in each sector range from highly inelastic to highly elastic with the pattern of elasticity variations exhibiting few spatial trends or relationships. Comparisons between operating region results and more aggregated statewide results indicate that statewide and national analysis of electricity demand masks much regional detail — a result which has important implications for energy policy making. 相似文献
18.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(10):974-982
The current status of silver production in Russia (and areas in other former Soviet republics) is discussed with particular attention to mine output, deposit geology, byproducts, economics of production, and potential export markets. In Russia and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, most silver is found and recovered in subordinate or trace amounts in deposits mined primarily for other commodities (especially gold and various base metals). Kazakhstan and Russia are the major mine producers of silver in the region, although in Russia potential demand is forecast to exceed output by as much as 25% by 1994. This potential shortfall, coupled with the approaching depletion of rich deposits in the Urals and northern East Siberia, has prompted the Russian government to formulate a plan for revitalizing the silver industry by opening new deposits and installing new processing capacity. A major objective of the plan, which attempts to reduce imports of silver concentrate and metal products, is increased foreign investment via international tenders. However, given the recent history of weak world silver markets, and an abundance of competing investment opportunities for global capital, it appears that Russia may have to consider incurring the costs of opening new silver deposits or relying more on imports. 相似文献
19.
山西省煤炭资源丰富,年煤炭产量占全国产量的近1/4,煤炭资源开采形成大量的采空地下空间。随着碳中和目标的提出和山西风电、光伏发电的大力发展,如何合理利用煤矿采空地下空间,尤其是将地下空间与新能源结合将成为煤炭产业低碳发展的关键。本次研究运用比例系数法和采空地下空间守恒定律,测算出2022年山西省开采煤矿井巷可利用空间为1.54亿m3,“十五”到“十三五”期间关闭/退出煤矿的井巷可利用空间为1.05亿m3,估算1949至2021年山西省煤矿因工作面开采形成的采空地下空间约38.98亿m3,预测到2030年山西省煤矿工作面开采还可形成采空地下空间约19.56亿m3。根据山西省能源低碳发展需求提出了山西省煤矿采空地下空间未来可利用的四种模式：煤矿地下旅游或地下仓储、煤矿地下抽水蓄能、煤矿地下压缩空气储能和煤矿地下封存二氧化碳等。 相似文献