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1.
Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
IPCC (2001) pointed out that the earth's climate was undergoing a remarkable change with characteristics of global warming over the past 100 years. The latest research showed that the global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 oC since 1861. It is very likely that the last 20 years in the 20th century was the warmest decades. The Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the 20th century appeared to have been unprecedented during the past millennium. The research also indicates th…  相似文献   

2.
20世纪中国气候变化研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century,climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C.More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China,North China and Northeast China,and the warming in winter is most significant.Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century,regional differences are very distinct.In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,precipitation increased,while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased.Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO,PDO,and the others,but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions,and land use.The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China's climate change and its main causes,since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.  相似文献   

3.
Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century, climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C. More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China, North China and Northeast China, and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased. Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China’s climate change and its main causes, since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.  相似文献   

4.
THE 'LITTLE ICE AGE': RE-EVALUATION OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPT   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ‘Little Ice Age’ as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300–1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ‘Little Ice Age’ climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570–1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961–1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ‘Little Ice Age’ climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier‐centred and the climate‐centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30‐year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ‘Little Ice Age’‐type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ‘Little Ice Age’, which may be viewed as a ‘modern analogue’ for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty‐first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ‘Little Ice Age’ will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth‐atmosphere‐ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling.  相似文献   

5.
Understanding the relative contributions of climatic and anthropogenic drivers of channel change are important to inform river management, especially in the context of environmental change. This global debate is especially pertinent in Australia as catchments have been severely altered since recent European settlement, and there is also strong evidence of cyclical climate variability controlling environmental systems. Corryong/Nariel Creek is an ideal setting to further study the interaction between climate and anthropogenic changes on channel evolution as it has experienced both significant periods of flood and drought, controlled by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extensive anthropogenic changes. Since European settlement the floodplain has been completely cleared, the riparian zone almost entirely invaded by willows, and every reach of the channel has experienced some form of direct channel modification. Through the combined analysis of channel evolution, climate changes and anthropogenic history of the river it was found that both the ENSO-driven climate and anthropogenic drivers are significant, although at different scales of channel change. Significant straightening in response to land clearing in the early twentieth century occurred before any records of direct channel modifications. Following this, most river management works were in response to instabilities created in the clearing period, or to instabilities created by flooding triggering a new phase of instability in reaches which had already undergone stabilisation works. Overall, human activities triggered channel instability via land clearing, and management works since then generally exacerbated erosion during high flows that are driven by climate fluctuations. This research raises the interesting question of whether rivers in Australia have become more responsive to the ENSO cycle since the clearing of catchment and riparian vegetation, or whether the past response to climate variability was different.  相似文献   

6.
On Rates and Acceleration Trends of Global Glacier Mass Changes   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Worldwide glacier mass changes are considered to represent natural key variables within global climate-related monitoring programmes, especially with respect to strategies concerning early detection of enhanced greenhouse effects on climate. This is due to the fact that glacier mass changes provide important quantitative information on rates of change, acceleration tendencies and pre-industrial variability relating to energy exchange at the earth/athmosphere interface. During the coming decades, excess radiation income and sensible heat (a few watts per square metre) as calculated with numerical climate models are both estimated to increase by a factor of about two to four as compared to the mean of the 20th century. The rate of average annual mass loss (a few decimetres per year) measured today on mountain glaciers in various parts of the world now appears to accelerate accordingly, even though detailed interpretation of the complex processes involved remains difficult. Within the framework of secular glacier retreat and Holocene glacier fluctuations, similar rates of change and acceleration must have taken place before, i.e. during times of weak anthropogenic forcing. However, the anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere could now and for the first time represent a major contributing factor to the observed glacier shrinkage at a global scale. Problems with such assessments mainly concern aspects of statistical averaging, regional climate variability, strong differences in glacier sensitivity and relations between mass balance and cumulative glacier length change over decadal to secular time scales. Considerable progress has recently been achieved in these fields of research.  相似文献   

7.
Cryophenological records （i.e. observational series of freeze and breakup dates of ice） are of great importance when assessing the environmental variations in cold regions. Here we employed the extraordinarily long observational records of river ice breakup dates and air temperatures in northern Fennoscandia to examine their interrelations since 1802. Historical observations, along with modern data, comprise the informational setting for this analysis carried out using t-test. Temperature history of April-May season was used as cli- matic counterpart for the breakup timings. Both records （temperature and breakup） showed seven sub-periods during which their local means were distinctly different relative to preced- ing and subsequent sub-periods. The starting and ending years of these sub-periods oc- curred in temporal agreement. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） the synchrony between the temperature and river ice breakup records ruled out the possibility that the changes would have occurred due to quality of the historical series （i.e. inhomoge- neity problems often linked to historical time-series）; （2） the studied records agreed to show lower spring temperatures and later river ice breakups during the 19th century, in comparison to the 20th century conditions, evidencing the prevalence of cooler spring temperatures in the study region, in agreement with the concept of the Little Ice Age （1570-1900） climate in North-West Europe; （3） the most recent sub-period demonstrate the highest spring tem- peratures with concomitantly earliest river ice breakups, showing the relative warmth of the current springtime climate in the study region in the context of the past two centuries; （4） the effects of anthropogenic changes in the river environment （e.g. construction and demolition of dams） during the 20th century should be considered for non-climatic variations in the breakup records; （5） this study emphasizes the importance of multi-centurial （i.e. historical） cryo- phenological information for highly interesting viewpoints of climate and environmental his- tory.  相似文献   

8.
1 Background The growing realization of anthropogenic climate change has focused the attention of the scientific community, policymakers and the general public on the rising concentration of greenhouse gases, especially CO2 in the atmosphere, and on the c…  相似文献   

9.
The Arctic has a disproportionately large response to changes in radiative forcing of climate, and arctic lacustrine ecosystems respond sensitively to these changes. The goal of this research is to generate high-resolution climate records for the past two millennia using multiple proxies in order to place 20th and 21st century climate and environmental change into a long-term context. We use a 14C- and 210Pb-dated surface core from Lake CF8 on northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a high-resolution multiproxy reconstruction of climate and environmental change. Throughout the late Holocene, primary productivity in Lake CF8 was low, but increased almost 20-fold in the past 200 years. Insect (Chironomidae) assemblages also show dramatic changes since 1950 AD, with cold stenothermous chironomid taxa disappearing from the record altogether. These changes in productivity and chironomid assemblages are unprecedented in the past 5,000 years. The dramatic ecological shifts that occurred at Lake CF8 have also been observed elsewhere in the Arctic, and will likely continue at ever-increasing rates as anthropogenic inputs of green house gases continue to cause climate warming and enhanced lacustrine primary production.  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

It is commonly assumed that personal experiences of a changing climate will influence people’s attitudes to the extent that they will be more likely to acknowledge anthropogenic climate change as a real threat and therefore be more willing to accept both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In the article, the authors examine how survey participants’ personal experiences of extreme events and climate-related changes in the natural environment influenced their perceptions of climate change. Using data from a nationally representative survey conducted in Norway in 2015 and the results of logistic regressions, the authors find that individual observations of changes in nature were linked to higher levels of concern with regard to climate change, as well as to attitudes that were more positive towards personal mitigation and adaption efforts. Somewhat counter-intuitively, they also find that participants who had personally experienced a natural hazard event were less concerned about climate change compared with participants without such experiences. The authors conclude that personal experience of the consequences of climate change may in some cases have a limited effect on enhancing people’s concerns about climate change.  相似文献   

11.
A CO2‐warming atmospheric scenario, whereby increased concentrations of ‘greenhouse’ gases result in higher temperatures that either melt near‐polar ice or cause thermal expansion of ocean waters, thus leading to increased sea‐levels and exacerbated coastal erosion, assumes fundamental but unproven cause‐and‐effect relationships. General circulation models have reinforced claims of an accelerated warming and indirectly given support to the complete scenario, but ignore the point that global climate and not just air temperatures have changed over the past century. Indeed, it is difficult to prove that air temperatures have warmed naturally outside of urban centres over this period. To attribute recent temperature increases to anthropogenic factors and to extrapolate these trends to the future also ignores the historic variability of climate. What is more, an eustatic rise in sea‐level cannot be discerned from the background noise of technically or climatically induced changes. Even if sea‐level was rising, coastal erosion may be accounted for better by a suite of inter‐related climatic factors including changes in rainfall regimes, hemispheric circulation and storminess.  相似文献   

12.
The Yangtze River Watershed in China is a climate change hotspot featuring strong spatial and temporal variability;hence, it poses a certain threat to social development. Identifying the characteristics of and regions vulnerable to climate change is significantly important for formulating adaptive countermeasures. However, with regard to the Yangtze River Watershed, there is currently a lack of research on these aspects from the perspective of natural and anthropogenic factors. To address this issue, in this study, based on the temperature and precipitation records from 717 meteorological stations, the RClim Dex and random forest models were used to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate change and identify mainly the natural and anthropogenic factors influencing climate change hotspots in the Yangtze River Watershed for the period 1958-2017. The results indicated a significant increasing trend in temperature, a trend of wet and dry polarization in the annual precipitation, and that the number of temperature indices with significant variations was 2.8 times greater than that of precipitation indices. Significant differences were also noted in the responses of the climate change characteristics of the sub-basins to anthropogenic and natural factors;the delta plain of the Yangtze River estuary exhibited the most significant climate changes, where 88.89% of the extreme climate indices varied considerably. Furthermore, the characteristics that were similar among the identified hotpots, including human activities(higher Gross Domestic Product and construction land proportions) and natural factors(high altitudes and large proportions of grassland and water bodies), were positively correlated with the rapid climate warming.  相似文献   

13.
近400年来北极地区和中国气温变化的对比研究   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  
陈玲  张青松  朱立平  王国 《地理研究》2000,19(4):344-350
对中国和北极地区近400年来的气温变化进行了趋势分析和谱特征分析,通过对比认为,北极地区及中国基本上都有17世纪、19世纪两个寒冷期和18世纪、20世纪两个温暖期,在一定程度上说明了气候变化的全球性,但两地区气温的冷暖转化不同步。中国大部分地区(除华东、新疆、西藏区外)17、19世纪升温开始得较北极早;北极地区绝大部分站点18世纪升温较中国明显,且气温变化的区域差异较大。400aBP以来两地气温变化的周期较为一致,以130～140年、100年、80年的周期为主,说明400aBP以来气温的变化具有全球性,而且气温的变化受太阳活动的影响较大,自然因素尤其是太阳活动的影响是气候变化的主要原因。  相似文献   

14.
In an age of anthropogenic climate change, risk and vulnerability have become common parlance. Yet the histories of both concepts are bound up in the colonial project. This article attempts to give a brief genealogy of these concepts by considering their evolution within early colonial attempts to deal with the dangers and threats posed by a tropical climate. This article argues that British and French colonial writers and administrators began to understand the dangers associated with colonizing distant lands as distinct risks associated with living in a tropical climate. Tropical fevers, ecological devastation, famine and revolt in particular spurred on the development of new knowledge, which advanced understandings of the effects of the tropical climate both on European health and long‐term colonial ambitions. In turn the concept of a pernicious tropical climate that posed a biological threat to the health of Europeans came to play a major role in configuring prevailing notions of race, health and morality. Risk and vulnerability have been key discursive features of new knowledges and governmental technologies crafted in the context of colonialism to secure European rule over distant lands and people.  相似文献   

15.
以1981-2010 年柴达木盆地及其周边气象站点逐月气温和降水量资料为基础, 通过气候趋势分析、气候突变分析等方法, 研究了柴达木盆地气候要素的变化特征, 并结合Landsat TM/ETM+影像、NOAA/AVHRR-NDVI和EOS/MODIS-NDVI 数据, 研究了近30 年来柴达木盆地湖泊面积和植被生长的动态变化及其对气候要素的响应。结果表明:① 1981-2010 年, 柴达木盆地气温整体升高, 秋冬增幅最为明显, 年平均气温在1997 年发生暖突变, 1998 年以后升温趋势显著。② 1981-2010 年, 柴达木盆地年可利用降水量经历了“减少—增加—减少—增加”的变化, 但整体呈增加趋势, 1980-1985 年、1990-2001 年, 年可利用降水量呈减少趋势;1985-1990 年、2001-2010 年, 年可利用降水量呈增加趋势。③ 柴达木盆地湖泊面积受夏季可利用降水量影响显著, 1985-2010 年, 托素和冬给措纳湖泊面积呈“扩张—萎缩—扩张”变化;1985-1990 年, 湖面轻微扩张;1990-2001 年, 湖面明显萎缩;2001 年以后, 湖面显著扩张。④ 柴达木盆地植被生长受生长季可利用降水量影响显著, 1982-2010 年柴达木盆地植被生长呈“退化—改善—退化—改善”变化, 但整体呈改善趋势;1982-1985 年植被轻微退化, 1985-1990 年植被轻微改善, 1990-2001 年植被显著退化, 2001 年以后植被显著改善。  相似文献   

16.
Fossil diatoms from lake sediments have been used to infer both past trophic state and climate conditions. In Europe, climate reconstructions focused on northern and alpine regions because these areas are climatically sensitive and anthropogenic impact was low. In contrast, anthropogenic impact was often high in the central European lowlands, such as northern Germany, beginning in the Neolithic Age, ~3700 BC. Since that time, trophic state change was the main factor that affected diatom assemblages in central European lowland lakes. Therefore, it was considered difficult or impossible to identify climate changes in the region using sedimented diatoms. We used diatom assemblage changes, diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentrations and the relative abundance of planktonic diatoms from sediments of three lakes that differ in their location, size, morphology, catchment area and current trophic state to test whether we could distinguish between trophic state and climate signals over the past 5,000 years in northern Germany. In this study, changes in trophic state and climate were well differentiated. In the study lakes, relative abundance of planktonic diatoms seems to be linked to the length of lake mixing phases. Planktonic diatom abundance decreased during years with shorter mixing duration, and these shorter mixing times probably reflect colder winters. The diatom-inferred periods of short mixing phases from 1000 BC to AD 500 and from AD 1300 to 1800 coincide well with two known cooling phases in Europe and the North Atlantic region.  相似文献   

17.
我国历史时期冷暖年代的干旱型   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10  
郑斯中 《地理研究》1983,2(4):32-40
中国历史时期的旱涝变化与冷暖变化是有联系的。冷的年代,我国的气候是西干东湿,而暖的年代则是西湿东干。  相似文献   

18.
青海沙利克山祁连圆柏千年树轮宽度序列的变化特征   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  
利用功率谱、奇异谱和小波分析等方法对在青海沙利克山建立的两条祁连圆柏 (Sabi naprzewalskiiKom )千年树轮宽度序列进行了变化特征的分析 ,发现在低频变化上都存在2 0 0年的最显著周期和百年左右的显著周期 ;各种周期存在不同的演变特征 ,2 0 0年周期在15～ 17世纪最为盛行 ,百年左右的周期变化自 18世纪初以来较为突出。 15世纪下半叶是轮宽序列千年来最突出的低值期 ,它主要体现了 2 0 0年周期的变化 ,而 2 0世纪后期的高值区则主要是百年左右周期变化的作用。轮宽序列的低频变化与太阳活动的长期变化之间存在较好的对应关系 ,说明祁连圆柏年轮宽度序列所指示的气候低频变化可能受太阳活动的影响。  相似文献   

19.
Lake Naivasha, Kenya, is one of a number of freshwater lakes in the East African Rift System. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, it has experienced greater anthropogenic influence as a result of increasingly intensive farming of coffee, tea, flowers, and other horticultural crops within its catchment. The water-level history of Lake Naivasha over the past 200 years was derived from a combination of instrumental records and sediment data. In this study, we analysed diatoms in a lake sediment core to infer past lacustrine conductivity and total phosphorus concentrations. We also measured total nitrogen and carbon concentrations in the sediments. Core chronology was established by 210Pb dating and covered a ~186-year history of natural (climatic) and human-induced environmental changes. Three stratigraphic zones in the core were identified using diatom assemblages. There was a change from littoral/epiphytic diatoms such as Gomphonema gracile and Cymbella muelleri, which occurred during a prolonged dry period from ca. 1820 to 1896 AD, through a transition period, to the present planktonic Aulacoseira sp. that favors nutrient-rich waters. This marked change in the diatom assemblage was caused by climate change, and later a strong anthropogenic overprint on the lake system. Increases in sediment accumulation rates since 1928, from 0.01 to 0.08 g cm−2 year−1 correlate with an increase in diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentrations since the beginning of the twentieth century. The increase in phosphorus accumulation suggests increasing eutrophication of freshwater Lake Naivasha. This study identified two major periods in the lake’s history: (1) the period from 1820 to 1950 AD, during which the lake was affected mainly by natural climate variations, and (2) the period since 1950, during which the effects of anthropogenic activity overprinted those of natural climate variation.  相似文献   

20.
The multidisciplinary study of sediment cores from Laguna Zoñar (37°29′00′′ N, 4°41′22′′ W, 300 m a.s.l., Andalucía, Spain) provides a detailed record of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic changes in a Mediterranean watershed since Medieval times, and an opportunity to evaluate the lake restoration policies during the last decades. The paleohydrological reconstructions show fluctuating lake levels since the end of the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 1300) till the late 19th century and a more acute dry period during the late 19th century – early 20th century, after the end of the Little Ice Age. Human activities have played a significant role in Laguna Zoñar hydrological changes since the late 19th century, when the outlet was drained, and particularly in the mid-20th century (till 1982) when the spring waters feeding the lake were diverted for human use. Two main periods of increased human activities in the watershed are recorded in the sediments. The first started with the Christian conquest and colonization of the Guadalquivir River Valley (13th century) particularly after the fall of the Granada Kingdom (15th century). The second one corresponds to the late 19th century when more land was dedicated to olive cultivation. Intensification of soil erosion occurred in the mid-20th century, after the introduction of farm machinery. The lake was declared a protected area in the early 1980s, when some agricultural practices were restricted, and conservation measures implemented. As a consequence, the lake level increased, and some littoral zones were submerged. Pollen indicators reflect this limnological change during the last few decades. Geochemical indicators show a relative decrease in soil erosion, but not changes in the amount of chemical fertilizers reaching the lake. This study provides an opportunity to evaluate the relative significance of human vs. climatic factors in lake hydrology and watershed changes during historical times. Paleolimnological reconstructions should be taken into account by natural resources agencies to better define lake management policies, and to assess the results of restoration policies.  相似文献   

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