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1.
提出了应用ARIMA乘积季节模型对大坝位移监测数据进行分析和预报的新方法,并给出了基于开源R语言建立乘积季节模型的方法步骤和关键技术。结合某大坝径向位移监测数据进行计算分析,结果表明:ARIMA乘积季节模型能较准确地预报大坝位移趋势,具有较高的预测精度。  相似文献   

2.
A spatio-temporal econometric model of regional growth in Spain   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
In this paper, a combined cross-section and time-series econometric analysis of Spanish regional growth is presented. This analysis operates with a database where the number of cross-sectional units is small for a typical panel of data, while the time dimension is clearly dominant. First, using recent techniques in the econometric analysis of panel data (both panel unit root and panel co-integration tests), a co-integrating relationship between the level of regional output and the level of regional input factors is found, and the steady-state equilibrium production function is estimated. Second, a dynamic spatio-temporal panel error correction model is used in order to describe the short-run regional growth adjustment process in space and time. As conclusion, it is possible to identify significant spatial effects in the Spanish regional growth after controlling for temporal variation of the implied variables.  相似文献   

3.
Satellite-based wetland mapping faces challenges due to the high spatial heterogeneity and dynamic characteristics of seasonal wetlands. Although normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series (NTS) shows great potential in land cover mapping and crop classification, the effectiveness of various NTS with different spatial and temporal resolution has not been evaluated for seasonal wetland classification. To address this issue, we conducted comparisons of those NTS, including the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NTS with 500?m resolution, NTS fused with MODIS and Landsat data (MOD_LC8-NTS), and HJ-1 NDVI compositions (HJ-1-NTS) with finer resolution, for wetland classification of Poyang Lake. Results showed the following: (1) the NTS with finer resolution was more effective in the classification of seasonal wetlands than that of the MODIS-NTS with 500-m resolution and (2) generally, the HJ-1-NTS performed better than that of the fused NTS, with an overall accuracy of 88.12% for HJ-1-NTS and 83.09% for the MOD_LC8-NTS. Future work should focus on the construction of satellite image time series oriented to highly dynamic characteristics of seasonal wetlands. This study will provide useful guidance for seasonal wetland classification, and benefit the improvements of spatiotemporal fusion models.  相似文献   

4.
This paper proposes and estimates a spatial panel ordered-response probit model with temporal autoregressive error terms to analyze changes in urban land development intensity levels over time. Such a model structure maintains a close linkage between the land owner’s decision (unobserved to the analyst) and the land development intensity level (observed by the analyst) and accommodates spatial interactions between land owners that lead to spatial spillover effects. In addition, the model structure incorporates spatial heterogeneity as well as spatial heteroscedasticity. The resulting model is estimated using a composite marginal likelihood (CML) approach that does not require any simulation machinery and that can be applied to data sets of any size. A simulation exercise indicates that the CML approach recovers the model parameters very well, even in the presence of high spatial and temporal dependence. In addition, the simulation results demonstrate that ignoring spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity when both are actually present will lead to bias in parameter estimation. A demonstration exercise applies the proposed model to examine urban land development intensity levels using parcel-level data from Austin, Texas.  相似文献   

5.
The issue of combining high-resolution gravity models, based on observations taken on the Earth surface, with those derived from satellite-only observations is of increasing importance, due to the new data provided by gravity satellite missions, CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. The paper addresses this issue with a twofold purpose. On the one hand, it is an attempt to discuss and assess general concepts, well known in literature, such as achievable resolution, regularization in the least-squares sense or in an infinite dimensional setup, combination criteria, symmetry and block diagonal structures. In particular, as for the symmetry question, a well-defined result, generalizing known facts, is derived. On the other hand, the outcomes of the general discussion are specifically applied to the combination of a high-resolution model (e.g. EGM08) with a GOCE gravity model estimated by the so-called space-wise approach. Small numerical examples are developed to clarify the property of the proposed solution.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; AVHRR GIMMS NDVI for short) based fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from 1982 to 2006 and focus on their seasonal and spatial patterns analysis. The available relationship between FPAR and NDVI was used to calculate FPAR values from 1982 to 2006 and validated by Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) FPAR product. Then, the seasonal dynamic patterns were analysed, as well as the driving force of climatic factors. Results showed that there was an agreement between FPAR values from this study and those of the MODIS product in seasonal dynamic, and the spatial patterns of FPAR vary with vegetation type distribution and seasonal cycles. The time series of average FPAR revealed a strong seasonal variation, regular periodic variations from January 1982 to December 2006, and opposite patterns between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Evergreen vegetation FPAR values were close to 0.7. A clear single-peak curve was observed between 30°N and 80°N – an area covered by deciduous vegetation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the time series fluctuations of FPAR averaged by 0.7° latitude zones were not clear compared to those in the Northern Hemisphere. A significant positive correlation (P<0.01) was observed between the seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation and FPAR over most other global meteorological sites.  相似文献   

7.
A scale‐independent database that allows derived maps to be dynamically updated from a centrally maintained data source is an appealing alternative to traditional map revision techniques, which by today's standards are costly and inefficient. This paper presents a dynamic spatial updating model that supports automated updating of non‐standard maps in a scale‐independent database‐centric map production environment. Maps derived from the database are not separate data sets, but rather active views of the database. Each derived map is displayed in a unique way by implementing cartographic operations at the map level. While the operations applied require user involvement for strategic cartographic decisions, and algorithmic initiation and control, the technique allows geographic data to be processed cartographically without affecting the geometric integrity of the database. Each time a derived map is opened it retrieves the spatial data (and updates) from the database and applies the unique cartographic representation methods that persist on the individual derived maps. Database updates are automatically triggered to cartographic products, as process dependent updates, according to their individual product‐specific behaviour. This paper investigates product‐specific behaviour (product multiplicities) and the cartographic processing requirements to support dynamic spatial updating techniques in an object‐oriented map publishing environment. These techniques are implemented in an off‐the‐shelf software environment using ArcGIS.  相似文献   

8.
Y. Fu  W. Zhu  X. Wang  W. Duan  X. Wu  W. Jiao 《Journal of Geodesy》2002,76(4):216-225
 A global plate motion model is established based on the ITRF97 velocity fields and geological model NUVEL1. Sub-plate models are estimated by using the velocity fields derived from 45 global positioning system (GPS) sites under the ITRF97 reference frame in China. Comparisons between space geodesy and geological models are given. It is found that the Euler vector of the AFRC–EURA pair has an obvious discrepancy between space geodetic and geological models. The motion patterns of tectonic blocks in China predicted by GPS are consistent with those of geological data on the whole. Received: 9 November 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2001  相似文献   

9.
 The annual and semiannual residuals derived in the axial angular momentum budget of the solid Earth–atmosphere system reflect significant signals. They must be caused by further excitation sources. Since, in particular, the contribution for the wind term from the atmospheric layer between the 10 and 0.3 hPa levels to the seasonal variations in length of day (LOD) is still missing, it is necessary to extend the top level into the upper stratosphere up to 0.3 hPa. Under the conservation of the total angular momentum of the entire Earth, variations in the oceanic angular momentum (OAM) and the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) are further significant excitation sources at seasonal time scales. Focusing on other contributions to the Earth's axial angular momentum budget, the following data are used in this study: axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) data derived for the 10–0.3 hPa layer from 1991 to 1997 for computing the missing wind effects; axial OAM functions as generated by oceanic general circulation models (GCMs), namely for the ECHAM3 and the MICOM models, available from 1975 to 1994 and from 1992 to 1994, respectively, for computing the oceanic contributions to LOD changes, and, concerning the HAM variations, the seasonal estimates of the hydrological contribution as derived by Chao and O'Connor [(1988) Geophys J 94: 263–270]. Using vector representation, it is shown that the vectors achieve a close balance in the global axial angular momentum budget within the estimated uncertainties of the momentum quantities on seasonal time scales. Received: 6 April 2000 / Accepted: 13 December 2000  相似文献   

10.
马培培  李静  柳钦火  何彬彬  赵静 《遥感学报》2019,23(6):1232-1252
对多源遥感数据协同生产的2010年—2015年中国区域1 km空间分辨率5天合成的MuSyQ(Multi-source data Synergized Quantitative remote sensing production system)叶面积指数LAI产品进行验证。参考现有的LAI产品(MODIS c5,GLASS LAI)和中国生态系统研究网络部分农田和森林站点可用的LAI地面测量数据,从时空连续性、时空一致性、精度和准确性等方面对中国区域的MuSyQ LAI产品进行定性和定量分析与评价。结果表明:(1) MuSyQ LAI产品在保证精度优于MODIS产品的情况下,时间分辨率和时空连续性均有提高。MuSyQ LAI与其他LAI产品(MODIS c5,GLASS LAI)在整体上有很好的一致性(RMSE=1.0,RMSE=0.81),但对常绿阔叶林高值处的描述不稳定;(2) 与LAI地面测量数据相比,MuSyQ LAI产品与地面参考图对比结果较好(最高相关性(R2=0.54)和较低总体误差(RMSE=0.96)),其在阔叶作物生长季高值处有些许低估且在某些阔叶林站点有些高估。整体上,MuSyQ LAI产品呈现出较高的精度,可靠的空间分布和连续稳定的时间分布,且对森林LAI的描述具有更可靠的动态范围。  相似文献   

11.
Dynamic spatial panels: models, methods, and inferences   总被引:7,自引:1,他引:6  
This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent variable lagged in space, a dependent variable lagged in both space and time, independent variables lagged in time, independent variables lagged in space, serial error autocorrelation, spatial error autocorrelation, spatial-specific and time-period-specific effects. The survey also examines the reasoning behind different model specifications and the purposes for which they can be used, which should be useful for practitioners.  相似文献   

12.
动力法校准GRACE星载加速度计   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
研究了GRACE星载加速度计的动力法校准。联合精密轨道、星间距离变率同时估计重力场模型参数和加速度计校准参数,获得了SRF(satellite reference frame)下的比例系数和偏差参数时间序列,100阶重力场模型的大地水准面累积误差为4cm,在相应波段上优于CSR(center for space research)同时段的月重力场模型精度。以上述整体解算的结果为参照,对固定重力场模型参数的校准方案进行了检验,发现SRF框架下的非保守力差值最高可达10-8 m·s-2量级,认为固定重力场模型的方法难以充分发挥GRACE加速度计的测量能力。本文研究结果可为后续的大规模卫星重力测量数据处理提供科学的依据,也能为开展相关科学应用提供可靠的非保守力数据。  相似文献   

13.
Data fused from distinct but complementary satellite sensors mitigate tradeoffs that researchers make when selecting between spatial and temporal resolutions of remotely sensed data. We integrated data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the Terra satellite and the Operational Land Imager sensor aboard the Landsat 8 satellite into four regression-tree models and applied those data to a mapping application. This application produced downscaled maps that utilize the 30-m spatial resolution of Landsat in conjunction with daily acquisitions of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that are composited and temporally smoothed. We produced four weekly, atmospherically corrected, and nearly cloud-free, downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions (maps) built from these models. Model results were strong with R2 values ranging from 0.74 to 0.85. The correlation coefficients (r ≥ 0.89) were strong for all predictions when compared to corresponding original MODIS NDVI data. Downscaled products incorporated into independently developed sagebrush ecosystem models yielded mixed results. The visual quality of the downscaled 30-m synthetic MODIS NDVI predictions were remarkable when compared to the original 250-m MODIS NDVI. These 30-m maps improve knowledge of dynamic rangeland seasonal processes in the central Great Basin, United States, and provide land managers improved resource maps.  相似文献   

14.
The determination of local geoid models has traditionally been carried out on land and at sea using gravity anomaly and satellite altimetry data, while it will be aided by the data expected from satellite missions such as those from the Gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explorer (GOCE). To assess the performance of heterogeneous data combination to local geoid determination, simulated data for the central Mediterranean Sea are analyzed. These data include marine and land gravity anomalies, altimetric sea surface heights, and GOCE observations processed with the space-wise approach. A spectral analysis of the aforementioned data shows their complementary character. GOCE data cover long wavelengths and account for the lack of such information from gravity anomalies. This is exploited for the estimation of local covariance function models, where it is seen that models computed with GOCE data and gravity anomaly empirical covariance functions perform better than models computed without GOCE data. The geoid is estimated by different data combinations and the results show that GOCE data improve the solutions for areas covered poorly with other data types, while also accounting for any long wavelength errors of the adopted reference model that exist even when the ground gravity data are dense. At sea, the altimetric data provide the dominant geoid information. However, the geoid accuracy is sensitive to orbit calibration errors and unmodeled sea surface topography (SST) effects. If such effects are present, the combination of GOCE and gravity anomaly data can improve the geoid accuracy. The present work also presents results from simulations for the recovery of the stationary SST, which show that the combination of geoid heights obtained from a spherical harmonic geopotential model derived from GOCE with satellite altimetry data can provide SST models with some centimeters of error. However, combining data from GOCE with gravity anomalies in a collocation approach can result in the estimation of a higher resolution geoid, more suitable for high resolution mean dynamic SST modeling. Such simulations can be performed toward the development and evaluation of SST recovery methods.  相似文献   

15.
新一代卫星重力探测任务GRACE大大提高了地球重力场模型中长波分量的精度,使得联合卫星测高平均海面分离更精细稳态海洋动力地形成为可能。本文利用T/P(1994年~2003年)和JASON-1(2003年~2005年)卫星测高数据确定了全球30′×30′平均海面高;基于重力场模型WHU-GM-05,计算得到对应于海面高的GRACE海洋大地水准面格网值;利用“移去-恢复法”和高斯滤波求得全球稳态海面地形。与EGM96、R io05、ECCO和GGM02模型进行比较,检验结果表明GRACE任务有效的改善了海洋大地水准面的精度,使得稳态海洋动力地形能够呈现更多细部。  相似文献   

16.
The purpose of this work is to determine whether spatial modeling can be used to model the spread of the Black Death. The study is limited to models for the propagation of the disease in Sweden in 1350. Geographic data of Swedish water bodies and medieval road networks, historical data on the population in Swedish parishes, including their medieval boundaries, along with historical notes and disease characteristics, were used to build alternative models for spatial distribution. Three different models are presented: one radial, one cost‐based and one combining network analysis and radial propagation. Simulations were made to depict different scenarios on the spread of the disease, as well as the drastic changes in the overall population of Sweden, over a couple of hundred years. For purpose of validation the population decrease estimated in each parish is compared with independent historical documents. Results from model scenarios are visualized in maps of propagation, animated video sequences and a web map service. Our analyses clearly demonstrate the power of spatial analysis and geographic information systems to describe, model and visualize epidemiologic processes in space and time.  相似文献   

17.
动态数据库模型的研究与应用   总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1  
田娇娇  唐新明  杨平  汪汇兵  翟亮 《测绘科学》2006,31(1):123-124,136
现有的时空数据库模型不能完全满足国家基础地理信息动态数据库的要求。本文分析总结了常用的空间数据库模型的结构和功能,提出了动态“版本-差量”模型,并利用此模型对国家基础地理信息动态数据库进行了建库试验。试验表明该模型可以很好的描述和管理复杂的基础地理信息数据,方便的查询任意时刻的空间信息及其空间关系。  相似文献   

18.
基于地理事件时变序列的时空数据模型研究与实现   总被引:14,自引:1,他引:14  
首先分析比较了已有的时空数据模型的特点,针对其存在的不足,提出并讨论了一种基于地理事件时变序列的时空数据模型,阐述了该模型的时空语义概念和时空拓扑关系,并针对具体的实际应用,在现有成熟的GIS平台上进行扩展,验证了该数据模型的有效性。  相似文献   

19.
In order to effectively recover surface mass or geoid height changes from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) time-variable gravity models, spatial smoothing is required to minimize errors from noise. Spatial smoothing, such as Gaussian smoothing, not only reduces the noise but also attenuates the real signals. Here we investigate possible amplitude attenuations and phase changes of seasonal water storage variations in four drainage basins (Amazon, Mississippi, Ganges and Zambezi) using an advanced global land data assimilation system. It appears that Gaussian smoothing significantly affects GRACE-estimated basin-scale seasonal water storage changes, e.g., in the case of 800 km smoothing, annual amplitudes are reduced by about 25–40%, while annual phases are shifted by up to 10°. With these effects restored, GRACE-estimated water storage changes are consistently larger than model estimates, indicating that the land surface model appears to underestimate terrestrial water storage change. Our analysis based on simulation suggests that normalized attenuation effects (from Gaussian smoothing) on seasonal water storage change are relatively insensitive to the magnitude of the true signal. This study provides a numerical approach that can be used to restore seasonal water storage change in the basins from spatially smoothed GRACE data.  相似文献   

20.
基于ARIMA模型的市内人群移动预测   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
城市内部人群移动模式的研究在城市规划、交通量预测和疾病的防控等领域具有重要的应用价值。已有研究多基于出行数据探索人群移动模式,文中基于新浪微博位置签到数据,从时间序列建模角度结合ARIMA模型,建立武汉市人群移动的季节性模型实验表明,模型ARIMA(3,0,2)(1,1,0)12能较好地拟合并预测武汉市人群移动趋势,对城市规划和决策具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

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