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1.
全国尺度的城市建筑地震风险评估对城市防震减灾工作有着重要意义。本文根据全国人口普查和城市统计年鉴等给出的宏观指标建立城市建筑数据库,通过GEAR1方法(Global earthquake activity rate model 1)和第五代中国地震动参数区划图给出具体场地的地面运动强度,通过地面坡度与剪切波速的对应关系确定的场地类别来考虑地震动输入,采用城市抗震弹塑性分析方法建立建筑分析模型,通过地震经济损失风险指标和建筑严重破坏和倒塌风险作为风险评价指标,给出中国大陆主要城市建筑地震风险分布图。结果分析表明,本文方法可以基于可公开获取的数据预测全国不同城市的建筑震害风险;根据第五代地震动参数区划图给出的地面强度,地震经济损失高风险区主要是设防加速度0.3g以上地区;考虑城市人口、GDP因素后,中、东部城市因人口和财富密度较高,建筑地震风险增加明显;不同地震动选波对经济损失风险影响较小,而对倒塌风险影响较大。本文分析方法可以为城市建筑地震风险分析提供相关参考。 相似文献
2.
以宁蒗县1988年MS 5.5、2012年MS 5.7以及2022年MS 5.5地震为研究对象,以宁蒗地震灾区当年相关震害统计资料为基础,从人员伤亡、房屋破坏、经济损失3个主要方面,对3次地震震害特征进行对比分析。结果表明： 2012年MS 5.7地震造成的人员伤亡最为严重,此外震区房屋结构不断丰富,抗震性能不断增强,但土木结构房屋抗震性能较差,震灾经济损失逐渐减小,但民房经济损失占比逐年升高。根据分析以上结果提出“提高民众防震减灾意识,增强房屋抗震性能,积极响应政策号召”等建议和措施,为灾后重建以及城市规划发展提供借鉴。 相似文献
3.
Seismicity of the southern Siberian platform: Spatiotemporal characteristics and genesis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Analysis of instrumental data on earthquakes of 1960–2005 in the Irkutsk amphitheater shows that the majority of the earthquakes form a wide (150–300 km) band of diffuse seismicity along the marginal suture of the Siberian platform. In accordance with established regular spatiotemporal patterns of the distribution of earthquakes, this band belongs to the Sayan-Baikal seismic belt, associated with the destruction process at the boundary of large lithospheric blocks. The band is located on the northern periphery of the belt and, the deformable substrate being highly monolithic, this sharply weakens the seismicity within the band. Because of the tectonic origin of earthquakes in such a vast platform territory, undoubted evidence for induced seismicity around the Angara cascade reservoirs, and the intense economic development of the region, the problem of seismic hazard in the southern Siberian platform should be regarded as one of the most significant objects of geodynamic research. 相似文献
4.
通过对地震时人员死亡、受伤、房屋破坏和直接经济损失４个灾害损失指标的函数转换，使得用不同的损失指标判别灾害等级的标准取得了统一．然后，应用灰色聚类方法划分地震灾害等级，并用灰色关联度排序方法对不同的灾情进行分析比较．同时还对１９６６～１９８３年我国大陆７次重要地震和１９９５年我国大陆１７次地震进行了灾害等级划分和不同灾情的分析比较．结果表明，该方法基本可定量准确地评价地震灾情 相似文献
5.
房屋建筑的地震易损性是地震损失评估和地震巨灾风险模型的基础。作为房屋建筑的重要组成部分,各类非结构构件的损失在现有的易损性模型中并未得到足够重视。本文以一栋典型钢筋混凝土框架结构教学楼为对象,通过将房屋建筑中的各类构件划分为具有不同地震损伤特性和损失后果的易损性组,考察建筑内的损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地震易损性的影响。分析结果表明:由于许多非结构构件在中小地震作用下即可能发生较严重的破坏,房屋建筑在中小地震下的易损性主要受非结构损失控制;随着地震动强度等级的不断提高,结构损伤渐趋严重,结构损失对整体建筑易损性的影响不断增大;在结构进入震后不可修状态之前,建筑不同楼层的损失分布是评估建筑地震损失时不可忽略的因素。 相似文献
6.
The buildings’ capacity to maintain minimum structural safety levels during natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is recognisably one of the aspects that most influence urban resilience. Moreover, the public investment in risk mitigation strategies is fundamental, not only to promote social and urban and resilience, but also to limit consequent material, human and environmental losses. Despite the growing awareness of this issue, there is still a vast number of traditional masonry buildings spread throughout many European old city centres that lacks of adequate seismic resistance, requiring therefore urgent retrofitting interventions in order to both reduce their seismic vulnerability and to cope with the increased seismic requirements of recent code standards. Thus, this paper aims at contributing to mitigate the social and economic impacts of earthquake damage scenarios through the development of vulnerability-based comparative analysis of some of the most popular retrofitting techniques applied after the 1998 Azores earthquake. The influence of each technique individually and globally studied resorting to a seismic vulnerability index methodology integrated into a GIS tool and damage and loss scenarios are constructed and critically discussed. Finally, the economic balance resulting from the implementation of that techniques are also examined. 相似文献
7.
Abbas Senouci Pierre Yves Bard Mohamed Naboussi Farsi Elise Beck Stéphane Cartier 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(4):1191-1215
The city of Oran is exposed to a significant seismic hazard, as almost all the northern Algeria territory, where numerous casualties and severe damage occurred in the last decades due to several moderate to large earthquakes. A mitigation policy should include the establishment of priorities to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings based on the knowledge of the actual urban fabrics. The complexity of vulnerability assessment requires a gradual approach from the urban scale to the building scale. The study reported in this paper corresponds to the first step of such an approach, i.e., a preliminary study of the seismic vulnerability and expected damage within an urban district of the city of Oran, based on a non-dedicated data base from a building survey previously performed for other purposes. The main goals of this study are twofold: (1) an assessment of the degree of uncertainty and robustness of such results through a comparison of the results derived from different urban vulnerability methods (GNDT 2; RISK-UE LM1; and VULNERALP 2.0) and (2) an assessment of the actual level of seismic risk in the city of Oran. Cross-method comparisons and correlations highlight a satisfactory agreement between mean damage estimates at the urban scale, despite significant scattering at the single building scale, and uncertainty levels which vary significantly from one method to the other. For a given scenario, the three methods provide damage estimates lying within half an EMS damage degree of one another, with some systematic positive bias for VULNERALP and negative bias for RISK-UE LM1, especially for masonry buildings. The expected mean damage is very important for intensities 9 and 10, with an average damage grade around 3–4 for intensity 9 and 4–5 for intensity 10. The spatial distribution of damage systematically exhibits larger values in the northern, older, commercial area, than in the southern, more recent and more residential area, in relation to the building typology and the existence of several aggravating factors. Some areas of higher vulnerability / damage can be distinguished, which should receive particular attention for retrofitting priorities or urban planning decisions, also taking into account their cultural heritage value. 相似文献
8.
青海省共和地区位于柴达木—阿尔金地震带内,具备发生中强地震的构造背景,近年来该地区地震活动频繁,农村地区受经济和技术等条件的限制,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。为深入了解共和地区农村民居结构特征与抗震性能现状,开展实地调查,基于历史震害资料,总结区域内典型农村民居震害特点,并进行震害预测,得到不同地震烈度下农村民居不同的破坏结果。结果表明:青海省共和地区农村民居中的砖混结构和砖木结构房屋数量约占48%、47%,其中约68%砖混结构房屋未设置构造柱和圈梁等抗震设防措施;该地区主要农村民居基本达到Ⅶ度抗震设防要求,仅部分建造年代久的土木结构房屋破坏严重;地震烈度为Ⅷ度时,大部分房屋以中等破坏和严重破坏为主;地震烈度为Ⅸ、Ⅹ度时,农村民居将发生大范围严重破坏,甚至毁坏。 相似文献
9.
Seismologists have begun to investigate the earthquake damage and assess the economic losses on the spot in the Yunnan area since the earthquakes with Ms6.7 and Ms6.9 that occurred on the boundary between China and Myanmar west of Menglian county, Yunnan Province, on April 23, 1992. From 1992 to 2003, 50 destructive earthquakes occurred in Yunnan, and large amounts of data on seismic hazard have been accumulated. With focus on the major building structures, the paper makes statistical analysis on the earthquake damage ratio, loss ratio and seismic hazard index in the areas with different seismic intensity of the 50 events, and presents the seismic hazard matrix of buildings for the Yunnan area. 相似文献
10.
The collected paleoseismological data about the ancient earthquakes are analyzed for the zone of the Wenchuan earthquake. Four earthquakes with magnitude М = 8.0 occurred over a period of 10000 years and two earthquakes with magnitude 7.5 occurred over 1200 years. The obtained data allowed us to reconstruct the long-term seismic regime within the studied territory by constructing the frequency–magnitude relationship based on the instrumental, historical, and paleoseismological data. 相似文献
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12.
On October 27, 2004, a moderate size earthquake occurred in the Vrancea seismogenic region (Romania). The Vrancea seismic zone is an area of concentrated seismicity at intermediate depths beneath the bending area of the southeastern Carpathians. The 2004 M w?=?6 Vrancea subcrustal earthquake is the largest seismic event recorded in Romania since the 1990 earthquakes. With a maximum macroseismic intensity of VII Medvedev–Sponheuer–Kárník (MSK-64) scale, the seismic event was felt to a distance of 600 km from the epicentre. This earthquake caused no serious damage and human injuries. The main purpose of this paper is to present the macroseismic map of the earthquake based on the MSK-64 intensity scale. After the evaluation of the macroseismic effects of this earthquake, an intensity dataset has been obtained for 475 sites in the Romanian territory. Also, the maximum horizontal accelerations recorded in the area by the K2 network are compared to the intensity values. 相似文献
13.
The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy. 相似文献
14.
The space-time-magnitude relationship among worldwide earthquakes of magnitude M ? 7 has been investigated with a view toward discerning the statistical reliability of possibilities of epicenter migration, gaps in seismic activity, and techniques of identifying aftershocks and foreshocks. The statistical procedure involves the calculation of the second-order moment of the sequences. The statistical validity of the results was obtained by modeling the interaction of discrete seismic events by a multidimensional branching stochastic point process.The results are that epicenters of large earthquakes migrate with velocities between 300 and 2,000 km/year with a significance level greater than 99.5%; the maximum likelihood estimate of the velocity of migration of large aftershocks of large earthquakes is about 1,400 km/year; foreshocks of large earthquakes have a maximum likelihood estimate of velocity of migration of about 2,800 km/year. A gap in seismic activity occurs before large earthquakes; with somewhat less confidence, a gap also occurs after large earthquakes, after the aftershock sequence has ended. The number of immediate foreshocks is 35–40% of the number of aftershocks. Aftershocks are comparatively weaker than foreshocks when compared with the main shock. There are hints, that are not fully statistically confirmed, of interaction among large earthquakes in different depth ranges. 相似文献
15.
The evaluation of the potential impact of strong seismic events shortly after their occurrence is a critical step to organise emergency response and consequently minimise the adverse effects of earthquakes. The estimation of the impact from earthquakes considering the observed ground shaking from past events can be useful for the calibration of existing exposure and/or fragility and vulnerability models. This study describes a methodology to combine the publicly available information from the USGS ShakeMap system and the open-source software OpenQuake engine for the assessment of damage and losses. This approach is employed to estimate the number of structural collapses considering the 2012 Magnitude 5.9 Emilia-Romagna (Italy) earthquake and the aggregated economic loss because of the 2010 Magnitude 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) event. Several techniques to calculate the ground shaking in the affected region considering the spatial and interperiod correlations in the intra-event ground motion residuals are investigated and their influence in the resulting damage or loss estimates are evaluated. 相似文献
16.
A primary goal of earthquake engineering is to protect society from the possible negative consequences of future earthquakes. Conventionally, this goal has been achieved indirectly by reducing seismic damage of the built environment through better building codes, or more comprehensibly, by minimizing seismic risk. However, the effect that building damage has on occupants is not explicitly taken into account while designing infrastructure. Consequently, this paper introduces a conceptual framework and numerical algorithm to assess earthquake risk on building occupants during seismic events, considering the evacuation process of the structure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, inelastic structural response analysis and damage assessment, and couples these results with the response of evacuating agents. The results are cast as probability distributions of variables that measure the overall performance of the system (e.g., evacuation times, number of injured people, and repair costs) for specific time windows. As a testbed, the framework was applied to the response of a reinforced concrete frame building that exemplifies the use of all steps of the methodology. The results suggest that this seismic risk evaluation framework of structural systems that combine the response of a physical model with human agents can be extended to a wide variety of other situations, including the assessment of mitigation actions in communities and people to improve their earthquake resilience. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
The linked column frame (LCF) system is proposed as a seismic load resisting system that uses conventional components to limit seismic damage to relatively easily replaced elements. The LCF features a primary lateral system, denoted the linked column, which is made up of dual columns connected with replaceable links, and a secondary flexible moment frame system with beams having fully restrained connections at one end and simple connections at the other. The linked columns are designed to limit seismic forces and provide energy dissipation via link yielding, while preventing damage to the moment frame under certain earthquake hazard levels. A design procedure is proposed that ensures plastic hinges develop in the links of the linked columns at a significantly lower story drift than when plastic hinges develop in the moment frame beams. The large drift difference helps enable design of this system for two distinct performance states: rapid return to occupancy, where only link damage occurs and relatively simple link replacement is possible, and collapse prevention, where both the links and the beams of the moment frame may be damaged. A series of 3‐story, 6‐story, and 9‐story prototype LCF buildings were designed using the proposed design approach. Nonlinear models were developed for the designs with the link models validated using recent experimental results. The seismic response of these systems was investigated for ground motions representing various seismic hazard levels. Results show that the LCF system not only provides collapse prevention, but also has the capability of limiting economic loss by reducing structural damage and allowing for rapid return to occupancy following earthquakes with shorter return periods. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions. 相似文献
19.
A probabilistic framework for correlated seismic downtime and repair cost estimation of geo‐structures 
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下载免费PDF全文 Abdollah Shafieezadeh Reginald DesRoches Glenn J. Rix Stuart D. Werner 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(5):739-757
An important component of probabilistic risk assessment methods is the development of models to quantify the direct consequences of damage to geo‐structural components for a given intensity of the hazard. This paper presents a general probabilistic framework for correlated repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures exposed to seismic hazards. The framework uses as input the results of nonlinear time‐history analysis of geo‐structures for the set of earthquake records that are representative of the seismic hazard models for the region of interest. The repair cost and downtime are estimated for individual earthquakes probabilistically considering the uncertainties associated with damage states. In addition, the formulation of the repair cost and downtime accounts for the reduction in the repair requirements as the number of damaged components in the given damage state increases. An analytical linear and two bilinear regression models are proposed for conditional correlated seismic repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures given the intensity measure. The proposed framework is demonstrated by developing seismic repair models of a typical pile‐supported wharf structure on the west coast of the United States. The presented framework is general and can be applied to other types of geo‐structures and hazards and can include other decision variables such as loss of life as well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Mario Rodriguez 《地震工程与结构动力学》1994,23(6):627-643
Even though a number of parameters have been proposed in the literature for measuring the capacity of earthquake ground motions to damage structures, most of them are not consistent with building damage observed during earthquakes. In this study, a parameter for measuring seismic damage capacity is proposed. It uses the energy dissipated by a structure in inelastic deformations and a structural overall drift, and it is evaluated for three typical ground motions recorded in severe earthquakes. By using this parameter, consistent results with building damage observed in these earthquakes are obtained, which indicate the importance of displacement control for minimizing seismic damage. 相似文献