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1.
Observations of suspended sediment concentration and discharge at two sites on the proglacial river network draining from a predominantly cold-based, High-Arctic glacier (Austre Brøggerbreen) are described. Analysis of these observations illustrates: (i) the relatively low suspended sediment yield from this basin in comparison with many other glacier basins reported in the open literature; (ii) sustained and possibly increasing availability of suspended sediment to the fluvial system as the ablation season progresses; and (iii) the role of the proglacial sandur as both a sediment source and sink. Field observations coupled with the results of the data analysis are used to make inferences concerning the changing nature and relative importance of sediment sources within the basin. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
An analysis of temporal variability in proglacial suspended sediment concentration is undertaken using time series data collected from three Svalbard basins which include one largely cold-based glacier (Austre Brøggerbreen), one largely warm-based glacier (Finsterwalderbreen) and one intermediate polythermal glacier (Erdmannbreen). The temporal variability in proglacial suspended sediment concentration is analysed using multiple regression techniques in which discharge is supplemented by other predictors acting as surrogates for variability in sediment supply at diurnal, medium-term and seasonal timescales. These multiple regression models improve upon the statistical explanation of suspended sediment concentration produced by simple sediment rating curves but need to account for additional stochastic elements within the time series before they may be considered successful. An interpretation of the physical processes which are responsible for the regression model characteristics is offered as a basis for comparing the different arctic glaciofluvial suspended sediment transport systems with that of their better known temperate glaciofluvial counterparts. It is inferred that the largely warm-based glacier is dominated by sediment supply from subglacial reservoirs which evolve in a similar manner to temperate glaciers and which cause a pronounced seasonal exhaustion of suspended sediment supply. The largely cold-based glacier, however, is dominated by sediment supply from marginal sources which generate a responsive system at short time scales but no significant seasonal pattern. The intermediate polythermal glacier basin, which was anticipated to be similar to the warm-based glacier, instead shows a highly significant seasonal increase in suspended sediment supply from an unusual subglacial reservoir emerging under pressure in the glacier foreland. The temperate model of glaciofluvial suspended sediment transport is therefore found to be of limited use in an arctic context. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The sedimentology of proglacial Silt Lake was assessed by lake sediment coring and monitoring of lacustrine processes during a late‐summer period of high glacier melt to characterize sediment delivery from the heavily glacierized catchment and investigate the sediment trapping dynamics of this upland lake. A complete varve chronology was established for a distal basin of the lake which was exposed by Lillooet Glacier retreat between 1947 and 1962. The varve record showed decreasing sedimentation rates in the basin while the glacier retreated, and as the lake became free of ice contact in the early 1970s. Although recession has continued over recent decades, and glacier proximity to the lake has, therefore, continued decreasing, lacustrine sedimentation rates are now accelerating due to changing basin morphometry caused by delta progradation. Over shorter time scales, lake sedimentation patterns respond to changing runoff conditions, including late‐summer glacier melt intensity, intra‐annual flooding events, diumal runoff fluctuations, and within‐lake turbidity currents. Turbidity currents included quasi‐regular flows during high diurnal discharges and an episodic flushing of temporarily stored sediment from the sandur or delta at a time of low stage. Suspended sediment yield to Silt Lake is estimated to exceed 103 Mg km?2 a?1, a magnitude that surpasses previous local and regional yield estimates for the glacierized headwaters of the Lillooet River valley. Since Silt Lake currently traps a significant prooportion of that upland sediment supply, and the trapping efficiency of the basin has been variable at decadal time scales, the formation and continued development of Lilt Lake has likely had a significant influence on downstream sediment delivery. Lacustrine sediment‐based proxies of long‐term hydroclimatic variability being developed in glacially distal settings should include provisions for dynamic sediment trapping effects in upstream water bodies that often form in the active proglacial environment. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
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6.
Glacial lake outburst floods are among the most serious natural hazards in the Himalayas. Such floods are of high scientific and political importance because they exert trans‐boundary impacts on bordering countries. The preparation of an updated inventory of glacial lakes and the analysis of their evolution are an important first step in assessment of hazards from glacial lake outbursts. Here, we report the spatiotemporal developments of the glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, a trans‐boundary basin in the Central Himalayas, from 1976 to 2010 based on multi‐temporal Landsat images. Studied glacial lakes are classified as glacier‐fed lakes and non‐glacier‐fed lakes according to their hydrologic connection to glacial watersheds. A total of 119 glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km2 with an overall surface area of 20.22 km2 (±10.8%) were mapped in 2010, with glacier‐fed lakes being predominant in both number (69, 58.0%) and area (16.22 km2, 80.2%). We found that lakes connected to glacial watersheds (glacier‐fed lakes) significantly expanded (122.1%) from 1976 to 2010, whereas lakes not connected to glacial watersheds (non‐glacier‐fed lakes) remained stable (+2.8%) during the same period. This contrast can be attributed to the impact of glaciers. Retreating glaciers not only supply meltwater to lakes but also leave space for them to expand. Compared with other regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), the lake area per glacier area in the Poiqu River basin was the highest. This observation might be attributed to the different climate regimes and glacier status along the HKH. The results presented in this study confirm the significant role of glacier retreat on the evolution of glacial lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

Most Latin American glaciers are located in the tropical Andes. The melting processes of Glacier “15” on Antisana volcano were studied to understand the relationship between glacier retreat and natural climate variability and global climate change. Glaciers on the Antisana volcano are crucial sources of water as they feed the headwater rivers that supply Quito with potable water. The aim of this study was to build empirical models based on multiple correlations to reconstruct the mass loss of glaciers over a period of 10 years at three scales: local (data recorded by meteorological stations located around the volcano), regional (data from stations located around the country) and global (re-analysis data). Data quality was checked using graphical and statistical methods. Several empirical models based on multiple correlations were created to generate longer time series (42 and 115 years) of the mass balance for the glacier ablation zone. The long mass balance series were compared with the temperature variation series of the Earth’s surface in the Southern Hemisphere to estimate the relation between the mass balance and global warming. Our results suggest that the meteorological factors that best correlate with mass balance are temperature and wind.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis  相似文献   

8.
We develop a simple model to evaluate the daily flow discharges in the ablation season for the 11 km2 Pantano basin in the Retiche Italian Alps, based upon the data gathered during a three years field campaign. The Pantano basin embeds the Venerocolo debris covered and the Avio debris free glaciers, covering 2.14 km2 in the Adamello Group, where the widest Italian glacier Adamello is located. First, degree-day models based upon air temperature are tuned to calculate snow and ice melt at daily scale. Glaciers’ meteorological data are collected from an automatic weather station (AWS), operating on the glacier during summer 2007. The melt factors in the debris covered areas of the glacier are estimated against debris thickness, using a data driven parameterization. The flow discharge from the catchment is estimated using semi distributed flow routing for the ablation seasons of four years, from 2006 to 2009. The predicted discharges are compared to those derived from inverse reservoir's routing at the Benedetto lake, catching the basin outflow. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged glacierized areas, including those with debris covered ice, widely diffused and yet poorly understood. Pending accurate parameterization the approach is usable for water resources evaluation and for long term assessment of the climate change impact on the glacierized areas within the Alps.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

A glacier submodel was successfully integrated into the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH to simulate the discharge of a heavily glaciated drainage basin. The glacier submodel comprises a distributed temperature index model including solar radiation to simulate the melt rate of glaciated areas. Meltwater and rainfall are transformed into glacier discharge by using a linear reservoir approach. The model was tested on a high-alpine sub-basin of the Rhone basin (central Switzerland) of which 48% is glaciated. Continuous discharge simulations were performed for the period 1990–1996 and compared with hourly discharge observations. The pronounced daily and annual fluctuations in discharge were simulated well. The obtained efficiency criterion, R2, exceeds 0.89 for all years. The good performance of the glacier submodel is also demonstrated by integrating it into the hydrological model PREVAH.  相似文献   

10.
The impact of surface melt patterns and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is examined on the varying contributions of end member (snow, glacier ice, and rain) to proglacial streamflow during the ablation period (June–October) in the Chhota Shigri glaciated basin, Western Himalaya. Isotopic seasonality observed in the catchment precipitation was generally reflected in surface runoff (supraglacial melt and proglacial stream) and shows a shift in major water source during the melt season. Isotopically correlated (δ18O–δD) high deuterium intercept in the surface runoff suggests that westerly precipitation acts as the dominant source, augmenting the other snow- and ice-melt sources in the region. The endmember contributions to the proglacial stream were quantified using a three-component mixing. Overall, glacier ice melt is the major source of proglacial discharge. Snowmelt is the predominant source during the early ablation season (June) and the peak ISM period (August and September), whereas ice melt reaches a maximum in the peak melt period (July). The monthly contribution of rain is on the lower side and shows a steady rise and decline with onset and retreat of the monsoon. These results are persistent with the surface melt pattern observed in Chhota Shigri glacier, Upper Chandra basin. Moreover, the role of the ISM in Chhota Shigri glacier is unvarying to that observed in other glacierized catchments of Upper Ganga basin. Thus, this study augments the significant role of the ISM in glacier mass balance up to the boundary of the central-western Himalayan glaciated region.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

To assess the predictive significance of meteorological parameters for forecasting discharge from the Dokriani Glacier basin in the Himalayan region, discharge autocorrelation and correlations between discharge and meteorological factors were investigated on a monthly and a seasonal basis. Changes in correlations between discharge and meteorological variables, lagged by 0–3 days, were determined. Discharge autocorrelation was found to be very high for each individual summer month and for the melt season as a whole. This suggests that a substantial meltwater storage in the glacier, which results in a delayed response of runoff, and therefore discharge, from the highly glacierized basins is very much dependent on the previous day's discharge. A comparison of correlations between discharge and temperature, and discharge and precipitation shows that temperature has a better correlation with discharge during June and September, while precipitation has good correlation with discharge in July and August. Variations in the physical features of the glacier, weather conditions, and precipitation and its distribution with time over the basin account for changes in correlations. To forecast the runoff from the Dokriani Glacier basin, multiple linear regression equations were developed separately for each month and for the whole melt season. A better forecast was obtained using the seasonal regression equation. A comparison of correlations for the Dokriani Glacier with those for the Z'mutt Glacier basin, Switzerland, illustrates that, for both basins, the previous day's discharge (Qi-1) shows maximum autocorrelation throughout the melt period. Whereas a good correlation between discharge and temperature was observed for the Z'mutt Glacier basin for the whole melt period, for the Dokriani Glacier basin it was strong at the beginning and end of the ablation season. Runoff delaying behaviour in the Dokriani Glacier basin is found more prominent than in the Z'mutt Glacier basin early in the melt season. Water storage appears to be less significant in the Dokriani Glacier than in the Z'mutt Glacier towards the end of the ablation season. The strength of correlation between discharge and precipitation is higher for the Dokriani Glacier basin than for the Z'mutt Glacier basin. This is due to higher rainfall in the Dokriani Glacier basin. In general, for both glacier basins, maximum correlation is found between discharge and precipitation on the same day.  相似文献   

12.
Climate model simulations for the twenty-first century point toward changing characteristics of precipitation. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kansabati River basin in India. A downscaling method, based on Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), is applied to project precipitation generated from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) using two scenarios (A2 and B2). Wet and dry spell properties of monthly precipitation series at five meteorologic stations in the Kansabati basin are examined by plotting successive wet and dry durations (in months) against their number of occurrences on a double-logarithmic paper. Straight-line relationships on such graphs show that power laws govern the pattern of successive persistent wet and dry monthly spells. Comparison of power-law behaviors provides useful interpretation about the temporal precipitation pattern. The impact of low-frequency precipitation variability on the characteristics of wet and dry spells is also evaluated using continuous wavelet transforms. It is found that inter-annual cycles play an important role in the formation of wet and dry spells.  相似文献   

13.
The present study explores the spatial and temporal changing patterns of the precipitation in the Haihe River basin of North China during 1957–2007 at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s T tests are employed to detect the trends, and the segmented regression is applied to investigate possible change points. Meanwhile, Sen’s slope estimator is computed to represent the magnitudes of the temporal trends. The regional precipitation trends are also discussed based on the regional index series of four sub-basins in the basin. Serial correlation of the precipitation series is checked prior to the application of the statistical test to ensure the validity of trend detection. Moreover, moisture flux variations based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset are investigated to further reveal the possible causes behind the changes in precipitation. The results show that: (1) Although the directions of annual precipitation trends at all stations are downward, only seven stations have significant trends at the 90% confidence level, and these stations are mainly located in the western and southeastern Haihe River basin. (2) Summer is the only season showing a strong downward trend. For the monthly series, significant decreasing trends are mainly found during July, August and November, while significant increasing trends are mostly observed during May and December. In comparison with the annual series, more intensive changes can be found in the monthly series, which may indicate a shift in the precipitation regime. (3) Most shifts from increasing trends to decreasing trends occurred in May–June, July, August and December series, while opposed shifts mainly occurred in November. Summer is the only season displaying strong shift trends and the change points mostly emerged during the late 1970s to early 1980s. (4) An obvious decrease in moisture flux is observed after 1980 in comparison with the observations before 1980. The results of similar changing patterns between monthly moisture budget and precipitation confirmed that large-scale atmospheric circulation may be responsible for the shift in the annual cycle of precipitation in the Haihe River basin. These findings are expected to contribute to providing more accurate results of regional changing precipitation patterns and understanding the underlying linkages between climate change and alterations of hydrological cycles in the Haihe River basin.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Streamflow in the Himalayan rivers is generated from rainfall, snow and ice. The distribution of runoff produced from these sources is such that the streamflow may be observed in these rivers throughout the year, i.e. they are perennial in nature. Snow and glacier melt runoff contributes substantially to the annual flows of these rivers and its estimation is required for the planning, development and management of the water resources of this region. The average contribution of snow and glacier melt runoff in the annual flows of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam has been determined. Keeping in view the availability of data for the study basin, a water balance approach was used and a water budget period of 10 years (October 1986-September 1996) was considered for the analysis. The rainfall input to the study basin over the water budget period was computed from isohyets using rainfall data of 10 stations located at different elevations in the basin. The total volume of flow for the same period was computed using observed flow data of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam. A relationship between temperature and evaporation was developed and used to estimate the evapotranspiration losses. The snow-covered area, and its depletion with time, was determined using satellite data. It was found that the average contribution of snow and glacier runoff in the annual flow of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam is about 59%, the remaining 41% being from rain.  相似文献   

15.
In glacierized catchments, meteorological inputs driving surface melting are translated into runoff outputs mediated by the glacier hydrological system: analysis of the relationship between meteorology and diurnal and seasonal patterns of runoff should reflect the functioning of that system, with the role of meltwater storage likely to be of particular importance. Daily meltwater storage is determined for a glacier at 78 °N in the Svalbard archipelago, by comparing inputs calculated from a surface energy balance model with measured outputs (proglacial discharge). Solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and proglacial discharge are then analysed by regression and time‐series methods, in order to assess the meteorology–discharge relationship and its variation at diurnal and seasonal time‐scales. The recorded discharge time‐series can be divided into two contrasting intervals: up to early August, proglacial discharge was high and variable, mean hydrographs showed little indication of diurnal cycling, ARIMA models of discharge indicated a non‐seasonal, moving‐average generating process, and there was a net loss of meltwater from storage; from early August, proglacial discharge was low and relatively invariable, but with clearer diurnal cycles, regression models of discharge showed substantially improved correlations with air temperature and solar radiation, ARIMA models indicated a non‐seasonal, autoregressive generating process, and eventually a seasonal component, and there was a net gain in meltwater storage. The transition between the two periods is brief compared with the duration of the melt season. The runoff response to meteorology therefore lacks the strongly progressive element previously identified in mid‐latitude glacierized catchments. In particular, the glacier hydrological system only appears responsive to diurnal forcing following the depletion of the seasonal snowpack meltwater store. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
The geochemical, mineralogical and lithological composition of modern stream bed material is examined in order to characterize sources and evaluate downstream mixing of sediments in the upper Fraser River drainage basin, British Columbia. The <63 µm fraction is emphasized for its relative mobility and ease of analysis using instrumental neutron activation. Overall, the composition of the stream sediments closely re?ects bedrock distribution. Samples dominated by limestone and dolostone, calcite and dolomite, and related elements (Ca, Mg, Sr etc.) correspond to Lower and Middle Cambrian carbonate bedrock largely con?ned to the Moose River sub‐basin. Clastic and non‐quartzite metamorphic lithologies, primary and secondary aluminosilicate minerals and related elements (Al, Cs, Rb etc.) are largely derived from Miette Group bedrock and associated with the uppermost Fraser River sub‐basin. Except in the case of the Moose River/Fraser River junction, the determination of proportional tributary contributions is complicated by variable or delayed mixing, localized ?oodplain or valley side sources, and limited contrast between source areas. At present the Moose River sub‐basin contributes a greater proportion of the total and ?ne‐grained sediment loads of the combined Fraser River than would be expected from drainage basin area alone. The imbalance is related to greater relief, precipitation and runoff in the Moose River sub‐basin; however, the spatial association of carbonate‐rich stream sediments, ice cover and carbonate bedrock exposure indicates that glaciers play a particularly important roll in generating ?ne‐grained ?uvial sediment. Since differences in glacier cover and glacier potential in the two major sub‐basins are likely to be persistent, and since relative sediment yields from the sub‐basins can be determined from sediment composition, a potential indicator of glacier variation and climate change during the Holocene is therein available. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree‐day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13%–35% during 2011–2050 relative to the average during 1961–2006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 2011–2030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
With global warming, hazards relating to glacial melt, such as glacial lake outburst floods, are becoming progressively more serious. However, glacial melt processes and their hydrological consequences are very poorly understood. This study collected glacier discharge data from the terminus of the Parlung No. 4 Glacier throughout the melt season (May–October) during 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012 to study its specific hydrological characteristics. Time series and multivariate regression analyses were employed to investigate the relationships between discharge and meteorological factors involved, as well as their correlation to discharge estimations. The 0‐ to 3‐day time series analysis showed that discharge rates were highly autocorrelated and that discharge was significantly positively correlated to air temperature, vapour pressure and daily incoming shortwave radiation as well as weakly positively correlated to precipitation. A multiple‐regression exponential model using the independent variables of the daily mean temperature and the vapour pressure exclusively was applied to simulate daily discharge in the basin with a high degree of accuracy. On average, July yielded the maximum monthly mean discharge, followed by August. Discharge in July and August accounted for 53% of the total discharge during the main melt season. The daily cycle of discharge changed as the melt season progressed, reflecting hydrological processes and characteristics of snow melt and glacier ice/snow melt, as well as their transitional periods. Subsequently, regular variations in the characteristics of the diurnal cycle of discharge, storage and delay were observed as the melt season progressed. In addition, the reasons behind the inter‐annual variation in the characteristics of discharge and glacier discharge from the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas are compared and discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
This study aims to develop an improved time series model to overcome difficulties in modeling monthly short term stream flows. The periodic, serial dependent and independent components of the classical time series models are improved separately by information transfer from a surrounding long term gauging station to the considered flow section having short term records. Eventually, an improved model preserving the mathematical model structure of the classical time series model, while improving general and monthly statistics of the monthly stream flows, is derived by using the improved components instead of the short term model components in the time series modeling. The correlative relationships between the current short term and surrounding long term stations are used to improve periodic and serial dependent behaviors of monthly flows. Independent components (residuals) are improved via the parameters defining their theoretical probability distribution. The improved model approach is tested by using 50 year records of Göksu-Himmetli (1801) and Göksu-Gökdere (1805) flow monitoring stations located on the Ceyhan river basin, in south of Turkey. After 50 year records of the station 1801 are separated into five 10 year sub series, their improved and classical time series models are computed and compared with the real long-term (50 year) time series model of this station to reveal efficiencies of the improved models for each subseries (sub terms with 10 year observation). The comparisons are realized based on the model components, model estimates and general/monthly statistics of model estimates. Finally, some evaluations are made on the results compared to the regression method classically applied in the literature.  相似文献   

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