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1.
《气候变化研究进展》2015,(3)
<正>一项新研究表明:南极洲冰封的边缘正在溶解于日益变暖的海水中,而且在过去的10年里南极冰的消失速度有了显著的增大。南极冰盖是覆盖南极大陆绝大部分地区的厚厚冰层,其漂浮的边缘由延伸到周围海洋中的冰架构成,这些冰架对南极冰盖起到了固定作用,对于"接地部分"的冰起到了支撑作用,有助于减缓冰盖中的冰川流入海洋的速度。然而,不断变暖的海水一直在侵蚀这些冰架的底部, 相似文献
2.
冰盖是大面积(超过50000 km^2)覆盖陆地表面的极厚冰体,在重力作用下的形变宏观上表现为由内陆向沿海流动[1],当前世界上仅存格陵兰和南极两大冰盖。广大的内陆区域冰雪终年不化,以极低的速率积累表面降雪继而密实化为冰川。受基岩性质和地热通量的影响,冰盖底部融化润滑在冰盖内部形成快速冰流通道。如果融水在下游积累到一定程度,则会进一步发育成为相互连通的冰下水文系统,并最终汇入海洋[2]。当固体冰川流向海洋时,受地形约束可能形成冰架,由冰水密度比值可知只有约1/10漂浮在海面以上,绝大部分冰架与海水直接接触。 相似文献
3.
研究地球工程对海洋酸化的影响对于评估地球工程对全球气候和环境的影响有重要意义。文中使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模式,模拟了典型CO2高排放情景RCP8.5下,实施太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋表面的pH和文石（碳酸钙的一种亚稳形态）饱和度的影响,并定量分析了各环境因子对海洋酸化影响的机理。模拟结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年,相对于工业革命前水平,全球海洋表面平均pH下降了0.43,文石饱和度下降了1.77。相对于RCP8.5情景,2100年地球工程情景下全球海洋表面平均pH增加了0.003,而文石饱和度降低了0.16。地球工程通过改变溶解无机碳、碱度、温度等环境因子影响海洋酸化。相对于RCP8.5情景,实施地球工程引起的溶解无机碳浓度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均减小,碱度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均增大,温度的降低使pH增大而使文石饱和度减小。总体而言,太阳辐射管理地球工程可以降低全球温度,但无法减缓海洋酸化。 相似文献
4.
南海季风试验与东亚夏季风 总被引：66，自引：14，他引：66
南海季风试验是一次国际性大气与海洋的联合试验 ,旨在更好地了解南海季风的爆发、维持与变化 ,以改进东亚和东南亚地区的季风预报。 1998年 5～ 8月进行的外场试验取得了圆满成功 ,获得了大量气象与海洋资料。不少国家对这些资料进行四维资料同化 ,并改进数值模拟和预报 ;同时也为东亚与南海地区季风的研究提供了必要的资料集。文中总结了中国科学家在这方面的主要研究成果 ,共包括 6个方面 :(1)南海夏季风的爆发过程与机理 ;(2 )南海季风爆发过程中对流与中尺度系统的发展及其与大尺度环流的相互作用 ;(3)低频振荡与遥相关作用 ;(4 )南海海 气通量的测量及其与季风活动的关系 ;(5 )夏季风时期南海海洋的热力结构、环流和中尺度涡旋及其与ENSO事件的关系 ;(6 )南海与东亚季风的数值模拟。 相似文献
5.
6.
一次江淮气旋的模拟和海洋敏感试验 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
运用中尺度WRFV3.0模式,对2009年4月19日00时-22日00时期间的一次江淮气旋进行了数值模拟(控制试验CTR)研究,得出在CTR中江淮气旋的路径和发展趋势总体上比较理想,为此进一步设计海洋属性敏感试验,探讨海洋属性对江淮气旋的路径和强度的影响.结果表明:当海洋属性修改成陆地属性后,江淮气旋路径向东南偏移,入海后,偏离程度增大;气旋强度在大别山附近稍有增强,入海后强度减弱.气旋中心南侧的偏南气流、气旋前部的水汽辐合区和强对流有效位能,以及气旋中心附近的强潜热能,均有利于江淮气旋发展. 相似文献
7.
利用各种气象观测资料,研究了2010年1月28日和1月30日发生在粤东地区的两次海陆风生消的演变特征和环流背景,并通过数值模拟揭示了海陆风环流的结构特征。主要结论有:(1)两次海陆风出现时,粤东分别位于冷高压底部和入海高压后部,境内为均压场,后期随着冷高压南压或低压倒槽东移,粤东转受偏北风或偏南风控制,海陆风特点消失;(2)陆1风环流盛行时高空存在返回气流,没有贴地逆温,但在风向切变区域有逆温出现,海风环流高空无明显返回气流,无逆温出现;(3)高分辨率的模拟结果揭示,处于高压后部的海风环流在持续时间、垂直厚度和水平范围上都比高压底部的海风环流强。 相似文献
8.
气候变暖背景下,海平面上升已经成为全球沿海国家普遍面临的重大环境问题之一 [1].全球海平面上升是由气候变暖导致的海水增温膨胀、陆源冰川和极地冰盖融化等因素造成的.1901—2018年,海洋增温膨胀对全球海平面上升的贡献为29％;冰川和冰盖质量损失对全球海平面上升的贡献分别为41％和29％,且近40年来已经增加 [2]... 相似文献
9.
10.
地球北极和南极部分地区正在经历着以变暖和冰冻圈退缩为主要特征的显著变化,不仅深刻影响着当地生态环境和社会经济,而且具有半球乃至全球效应。IPCC在2019年9月发布的《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》（SROCC）第三章对极地系统变化及其影响与适应做了系统评估,主要呈现了IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）之后极地冰冻圈、海洋、生态和社会系统相互作用的最新科学认知,探讨了降低脆弱性和风险、增强适应性和恢复力的路径。文中对SROCC第三章进行扼要解读,主要内容包括：(1)极地海洋、海冰、积雪/冻土/淡水冰、冰盖与冰川等极地系统要素过去和未来变化及其影响以及极地与中低纬度天气气候之间的关联;(2)人类响应极地系统变化的策略和不足以及应对未来变化的不确定性;(3)当前加强极地恢复力建设的主要行动及其实施进展。 相似文献
11.
W. F. Budd 《Climatic change》1982,4(4):341-351
Summary and Conclusions The Last Great Ice Sheets provides a valuable compilation for current estimates of the extent and timing of the maximum ice
extent of the last ice age period around the globe. The areas of uncertainty are indicated and emphasis is given to points
of controversy where further research is needed to resolve the most important problems still remaining. The work thereby presents
plausible upper and lower limit estimates for the maximum extent of the ice corresponding to about 18 ka BP. These limits
can be used for the boundary conditions required for atmospheric climate modelling studies. For this type of application the
differences in the upper and lower limits are not serious and consequently the possible errors in the reconstruction estimates
are not so important.
The greatest uncertainties in the ice cover reconstructions occur for the northerly limits of the grounded ice which tend
to be in off-shore regions where reliable data is sparse. This signals the requirement for a much greater research effort
to collect off-shore sediment sequences and other data to help clarify the ice cover fluctuation record. The possibility of
an extensive arctic ice shelf system and marine ice sheet cover interconnecting with the various grounded ice sheets is put
forward as a working hypothesis along with arguments in favour of the upper limit estimates for the maximum ice extent. The
extent of the ice age ice shelves is an important question which should be examined by dynamic ice sheet modelling with explicit
ice shelf formulation. The extensive growth of the ice sheets to seaward margins leads naturally to ice shelf formation. The
major questions are: how extensive were the ice shelves, and to what extent did coalescence occur?
The further hypothesis that the ice shelves may have had a major role in the growth and decay of the ice sheets is more difficult
to support since the results of the dynamic modelling indicate that the ice shelves form readily as a result of extensive
growth of the ice sheets but it is difficult to start extensive ice growth near sea level.
The information presented for the timing of the advance towards the maximum ice cover and the subsequent pattern of retreat
provides further valuable material to test the dynamic ice sheet and climate models including the reactions to the Earth's
orbital radiation changes. These results for the rates of change of the ice cover taken together with the modelling results
of Budd and Smith indicate that neither the ice sheets nor the bedrock depression had time to reach equilibrium states.
The non-equilibrium nature of the ice sheets with only short periods between relatively rapid advance and retreat phases is
an important factor that needs to be taken into account in assessing the reconstructions of the ice sheets. This emphasises
the need for further work with dynamic ice sheet models and coupled global atmosphere ocean models to determine more clearly
the sequence of changes during the growth and decay of the large ice sheets. ‘The Last Great Ice Sheets’ provides a timely
data base and compilation to support these studies. 相似文献
12.
Atle Nesje 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):221-227
Reconstructed Younger Dryas (11000-10000 y BP) valley- and cirque glaciers west of the Jostedalsbre ice cap suggest an equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) depression of 450±50 m compared to the present level. The mid-Preboreal (9500±200 y BP) deglaciation was characterized by vertical wastage, indicating that the ELA was above the summit plateaus. During the Erdalen event (9100±200 y BP) marginal moraines were formed up to 1 km beyond the Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines which lie in front of the present valley outlet glaciers of the Jostedalsbre ice cap. The average ELA lowering during this event is calculated to 325 m below the modern level. Lithostratigraphic and paleobotanical studies show that the Hypsithermal (ca. 8000-6000 y BP) ELA was about 450 m higher than at present. As a result, Jostedalsbreen probably disappeared entirely during that period. The glacier reformed about 5300 y BP. The ELA intersected the modern mean equilibrium line altitude five times from ca. 2600 y BP to the present. The outlet valley glaciers reached their maximum Neoglacial extent during the LIA in the mid-18th century, when the ELA was depressed 100–150 m below the present level.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program 相似文献
13.
14.
Long-term observations for monitoring of the cryosphere 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
John E. Walsh 《Climatic change》1995,31(2-4):369-394
Variations of the cryosphere over decadal-to-century timescales are assessed by a survey of data on sea ice, snow cover, glaciers and ice sheets, permafrost and lake ice. The recent variations are generally consistent across the different cryospheric variables, especially when placed into the context of variations of temperature and precipitation. The recent warming over northern land areas has been accompanied by a decrease of snow cover, particularly during spring; the retreat of mountain glaciers is, in an aggregate sense, compatible with the observed warming; permafrost extent and lake ice duration show similar variations in areas for which data are available. Corresponding trends are not apparent, however, in data for some regions such as eastern Canada, nor in hemispheric sea ice data, especially for winter. The data also suggest an increase of snowfall over high latitudes, including the Antarctic ice sheet.Estimates of both the climatic and the statistical significance of the recent variations are hampered by data inhomogeneities, the shortness of the records of many variables and the absence of central archives for data on several variables. The potential of monitoring by satellite remote sensing has been realized with several variables (extent of sea ice, snow cover). Other cryospheric variables (snow depth, ice sheet elevation, lake ice, mountain glaciers) may be amenable to routine monitoring by satellites pending advances in instrumentation, modifications of satellite orbit, and further developments in signal detection algorithms. The survey of recent variations leads to recommendations concerning the use of historical data,in situ measurements, and remote sensing applications in the monitoring of the cryosphere. 相似文献
15.
Recent studies suggest the occurrence of sporadic episodes during which the ice streams that discharge ice sheets become enormously active, producing large numbers of icebergs (reflected in North Atlantic sea cores as Heinrich events) and possibly causing the partial collapse of the ice sheets. To simulate the mechanism of internal thermo-hydrodynamical instability implied by such behavior in the context of a more general paleoclimate dynamics model (PDM), we introduce a new sliding-catastrophe function that can account for ice-sheet surges. In particular, using simple scaling estimates derived from the equations of motion and thermo-conductivity for ice flow, we express this function in terms of the thickness, density, viscosity, heat-capacity, and heat-conductivity of ice. Analysis of the properties of this function suggests that these Heinrich-type instability events might be of three possible kinds: the first type of event occurs in periods of glacial maximum when temperature conditions on the ice surface are extremely cold, but internal friction within bottom boundary layer is also at its maximum and is strong enough to melt ice and cause its surge. The second type of event may happen during an interglacial, when the ice thickness is small but relatively warm climatic conditions on the upper surface of ice can be easily advected with the flow of ice to the bottom where even a small additional heating due to friction may cause melting. The third and, perhaps, most interesting type of event is one that may occur during ice sheet growth; in this period particles of ice reaching the bottom still remember the warm temperature conditions of the previous interglacial and additional heating due to increasing friction associated with the growing ice sheet may again cause melting. To the extent that the upper glacier surface temperature depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, this third case introduces the interesting possibility that earlier CO2 concentrations may be as important for the present-day climate as its current value. We present results of numerical experiments demonstrating how these three kinds of instability can originate and interact with other components of the global climate system to produce variations of the Heinrich-event type. In particular, according to our model the climate system seems more vulnerable to surges during the penultimate interglacial period than in the present one, which may contribute to an explanation of the recent results of the Greenland Ice Core Project. 相似文献
16.
Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Valentina Radić Andrew Bliss A. Cody Beedlow Regine Hock Evan Miles J. Graham Cogley 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):37-58
A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor glacier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006–2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 %. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 % of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission scenario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify additional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection. 相似文献
17.
Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The future evolution of global ice sheets under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and its impact on the climate system, including the regional climate of the ice sheets, are investigated with a comprehensive earth system model consisting of a coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, a dynamic vegetation model and an ice sheet model. The simulated control climate is realistic enough to permit a direct coupling of the atmosphere and ice sheet components, avoiding the use of anomaly coupling, which represents a strong improvement with respect to previous modelling studies. Glacier ablation is calculated with an energy-balance scheme, a more physical approach than the commonly used degree-day method. Modifications of glacier mask, topographic height and freshwater fluxes by the ice sheets influence the atmosphere and ocean via dynamical and thermodynamical processes. Several simulations under idealized scenarios of greenhouse forcing have been performed, where the atmospheric carbon dioxide stabilizes at two and four times pre-industrial levels. The evolution of the climate system and the ice sheets in the simulations with interactive ice sheets is compared with the simulations with passively coupled ice sheets. For a four-times CO2 scenario forcing, a faster decay rate of the Greenland ice sheet is found in the non-interactive case, where melting rates are higher. This is caused by overestimation of the increase in near-surface temperature that follows the reduction in topographic height. In areas close to retreating margins, melting rates are stronger in the interactive case, due to changes in local albedo. Our results call for careful consideration of the feedbacks operating between ice sheets and climate after substantial decay of the ice sheets. 相似文献
18.
C. J. Van Der Veen 《Climatic change》1993,23(4):383-405
Satellite altimetry offers means of directly measuring changes in surface elevation over the polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. By relating these changes to variations in ice mass, it becomes possible to detect short-term changes in the Earth's ice sheets. However, it is not immediately obvious that short-term changes in surface elevation are indicative of any (long-term) trend in ice mass. An increase in ice thickness may very well reflect the response of the glacier to random fluctuations in precipitation. The spectrum of this response is dominated by low frequencies, with the majority of the variance contained in the longer time scales. As a result, the ice-thickness record may exhibit trends that have no climatic significance, but are due to a low-frequency response to random forcing. A simple model for the interpretation of observed elevation changes is developed and applied to measurements made over the Greenland Ice Sheet. It appears to be unlikely that the difference between the rate of thickening derived by Zwally and others (1989) using repeat satellite altimetry, and significantly smaller previous estimates, can be explained as being the response of the ice sheet to random climatic forcing or that this difference can be attributed to a recent increase in accumulation rate. 相似文献
19.
A continuous simulation of global ice volume over the past 1 million years with 3-D ice-sheet models
B. de Boer R. S. W. van de Wal L. J. Lourens R. Bintanja T. J. Reerink 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1365-1384
Sea-level records show large glacial-interglacial changes over the past million years, which on these time scales are related to changes of ice volume on land. During the Pleistocene, sea-level changes induced by ice volume are largely caused by the waxing and waning of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the individual contributions of ice in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere are poorly constrained. In this study, for the first time a fully coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models is used, simulating glaciations on Eurasia, North America, Greenland and Antarctica. The ice-sheet models use a combination of the shallow ice and shelf approximations to determine sheet, shelf and sliding velocities. The framework consists of an inverse forward modelling approach to derive a self-consistent record of temperature and ice volume from deep-sea benthic δ18O data over the past 1 million years, a proxy for ice volume and temperature. It is shown that for both eustatic sea level and sea water δ18O changes, the Eurasian and North American ice sheets are responsible for the largest part of the variability. The combined contribution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is about 10 % for sea level and about 20 % for sea water δ18O during glacial maxima. However, changes in interglacials are mainly caused by melt of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with an average time lag of 4 kyr between melt and temperature. Furthermore, we have tested the separate response to changes in temperature and sea level for each ice sheet, indicating that ice volume can be significantly influenced by changes in eustatic sea level alone. Hence, showing the importance of a simultaneous simulation of all four ice sheets. This paper describes the first complete simulation of global ice-volume variations over the late Pleistocene with the possibility to model changes above and below present-day ice volume, constrained by observations of benthic δ18O proxy data. 相似文献
20.
Sensitivity experiments are conducted to test the influence of poorly known model parameters on the simulation of the Greenland
ice sheet by means of a three dimensional numerical model including the mechanical and thermal processes within the ice. Two
types of experiments are performed: steady-state climatic conditions and simulations over the last climatic cycle with a climatic
forcing derived from the GRIP record. The experiments show that the maximum altitude of the ice sheet depends on the ice flow
parameters (deformation and sliding law coefficients, geothermal flux) and that it is low when the ice flow is fast. On the
other hand, the maximum altitude is not sensitive to the ablation strength and consequently during the climatic cycle it is
driven by changes in accumulation rate. The ice sheet extension shows the opposite sensitivity: it is barely affected by ice
flow velocity and the ice covered area is smaller for large ablation coefficients. For colder climates, when there is no ablation,
the ice sheet extension depends on the sea level. An interesting result is that the variations with time of the altitude at
the ice divide (Summit) do not depend on the parameters we tested. The present modelled ice sheets resulting from the climatic
cycle experiments are compared with the present measured ice sheet in order to find the set of parameters that gives the best
fit between modelled and measured geometry. It seems that, compared to the parameter set most commonly used, higher ablation
rate coefficents must be used.
Received: 19 September 1995 / Accepted: 30 May 1996 相似文献