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1.
Summary Mechanisms associated with Alpine lee cyclogenesis during the early phase of their generation are investigated using a variational quasigeostrophic filter technique. It was possible to extract the quasigeostrophic signal from the available analyzed real data set.The results presented here are for the 11–12 March 1982, an example of so-called orographically induced lee cyclogenesis. Non-quasigeostrophic fields, calculated as a difference between observations and the quasigeostrophic fields, show significant magnitudes indicating the possible importance of non-quasigeostrophic processes. A dipole structure in the residual geopotential field was observed, similar to the results of numerical model experiments. Also, a strong upper-level non-quasigeostrophic divergence was found in the Alpine region 24 hours prior to lee cyclogenesis, lasting for 6–12 hours. On the other hand, quasigeostrophic results indicate only a local effect of mountain slopes, suggesting possibly a dominant role of the low-level blocking. A hypothetical scenario of Alpine lee cyclogenesis is proposed, based on results obtained here.With 14 Figures  相似文献   

2.
ALPEX-Simulation     
Summary In a project ALPEX-Simulation, sponsored by the Österreichischer Fond zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF), all eight cases of ALPEX-SOP cyclones were numerically simulated with a fine mesh isentropic model of the atmosphere. These numerical simulations in six-hourly intervals allow a deeper insight into the synoptics and dynamics of the cyclogeneses in the Western Mediterranean, especially into the genesis of the two basic types of cyclones: the so-called Überströmungs-type and Vorderseiten-type. In the first phase of cyclogenesis of the Überströmungs-type, the blocking and flow splitting of the cold air due to the Alps and the canalization between the Alps and the Massif Central are important. Cold air flows cyclonically around the western part of the Alps, creating a vorticity maximum at the south western edge of the Alpine, bow and leads also to an enhanced PV. In connection with warm air in the Mediterranean, a strong baroclinic zone is generated. The interaction between the arriving PV maximum in the upper troposphere and the enhanced PV at the bottom leads to cyclogenesis in the Western Mediterranean. In the case of the Vorderseiten-type warm air advection dominates with the exception of a shallow layer of cold air in the inner Po-Valley, which is shielded by the Alpine ridge. A well-pronounced PV maximum builds up and couples with the PV maximum arriving at upper levels, even before the cold air, coming from the north-west, has surrounded the Alps. The cold air only intensifies the development by raising the baroclinity. Therefore, the Vorderseiten-cyclogenesis is an orographically modified cyclogenesis, in the course of which the cyclonic development is triggered by the Alps, whereas the Überströmungs-cyclogenesis is an orographically induced cyclogenesis i.e. a true lee cyclogenesis.With 14 FiguresDied in a tragic traffic accident on June 6, 1993.  相似文献   

3.
Summary The time-dependent motion of long ridges through a linearly stratified fluid otherwise at rest is investigated in a series of laboratory experiments. Similarity conditions for relating such flows to the atmosphere are deduced from the equations of motion and boundary conditions for the respective systems.Experiments concerning end-wall effects in towing experiments with linearly stratified fluid systems are conducted. For obstacles extending across the entire width of the tow tank it is shown that the upstream conditions are continually changing so that a final steady state motion may never be realized. Isolated topographies are shown to induce significantly less effect on the far upstream fluid motions. Case studies for the flow past long ridges for which the motion at large times is to be that of single, double and triple mode lee-waves and breaking lee vortices are conducted for impulsively started and uniformly accelerated and decelerated obstacle transverses. The final flow configuration under certain situations is shown to be relatively insensitive to the starting conditions. In other cases the final flow can be highly dependent on the time history of the ridge traverse through the tank. For example, for the case in which a breaking lee vortex is expected as the final flow, small initial uniform accelerations from a zero velocity lead to the formation of a strong rotor along the free surface of the tank and in the lee of the obstacle. This rotor is maintained in an approximate equilibrium position as the ridge speed reaches a value for which a breaking lee vortex (having no rotor) should be expected; i.e., the type of flow obtained for impulsively started or rapidly accelerating ridges, other parameters being fixed.The phenomenon of the oscillation of the structure of the wake flow between a relatively smooth laminar lee-wave pattern and lee waves that break into turbulence is investigated for impulsively started ridges. By defining the parameterN w as the number of waves downstream of the first trough that are clearly identifiable it is shown that the tendency for wake breakdown into turbulence increases with increasing internal Froude number, other parameters being fixed. No definitive period was found relating the alternating nature of the wake between breakdown, into turbulence, relaminarization and so on.With 20 Figures  相似文献   

4.
A numerical study of stably stratified flow over a three-dimensional hill is presented. Large-eddy simulation is used here to examine in detail the laboratory experimental flows described in the landmark work of Hunt and Snyder about stratified flow over a hill. The flow is linearly stratified and U/Nh is varied from 0.2 to 1.0. Here N and U are the buoyancy frequency and freestream velocity respectively, and h is the height of the hill. The Reynolds number based on the hill height is varied from 365 to 2968. The characteristic flow patterns at various values of U/Nh have been obtained and they are in good agreement with earlier theoretical and experimental results. It is shown that the flow field cannot be predicted by Drazin's theory when recirculation exists at the leeside of the hill even at UNh 1. The wake structure agrees well with a two-dimensional wake assumption when U/Nh 1 but lee waves start to influence the wake structure as U/Nh increases. The dividing-streamline heights obtained in the simulation are in accordance with experimental results and Sheppard's formula. The energy loss along the dividing streamline due to friction/turbulence approximately offsets the energy gained from pressure field. When lee waves are present, linear theory always underestimates the amplitude and overestimates the wavelength of three-dimensional lee waves. The simulated variations of drag coefficients with the parameterK (=ND/ U) are qualitatively consistent with experimental data and linear theory. Here D is the depth of the tank.  相似文献   

5.
Summary The performance of evaporation schemes with and approach and their combination within resistance representation of evaporation from bare soil surface is discussed. For this purpose nine schemes, based on different functions of or , on the ratio of the volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value are used.The quality of the chosen schemes has been evaluated using the results of time integration by the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model, BARESOIL, using in situ data. A sensitivity analysis was made using two sets of data derived from the volumetric soil moisture content of the top soil layer. One with values below the wilting point (0.17 m3m–3) and the second with values above 0.20m3m–3. Data sets were obtained at the experimental site Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia, from the bare surface of a chernozem soil.With 4 Figures  相似文献   

6.
Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the cold simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the warm simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a control run with the model's standard SST somewhat between the cold and warm SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the cold and warm experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments warm versus control and cold versus control are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the cold versus warm response is not a small disturbance that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the model's mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil.AWI Publication no. 254  相似文献   

7.
Six locations across mainland Portugal were selected for exposing Parmelia sulcata, for a one-year period (8 months for one site), with simultaneous measurement of total (dry + wet) deposition (one-month periods). The exposed lichens and the total (dry + wet) deposition were analysed for cobalt contents by INAA (instrumental neutron activation analysis) and ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy), respectively. The designated wet deposition was evaluated through the collected water volume; the designated dry deposition was assessed after the (dried) residual mass of the wet deposition. An excellent agreement between Co contents in exposed lichens and the cumulative (1) Co contents in the dry deposition, (2) dry deposition, and (3) wet deposition has been found for the locations with alternate drought and precipitation months, high dry deposition, and high Co contents in the latter. Continuous rainfall was found to hinder the Co accumulation in the lichen due to its release from the lichen and/or lower Co contents in the dry deposition. At three locations, P. sulcata Co contents, after subtraction of the background (before exposure), equalled or exceeded the Co contents in the cumulative dry deposition at the end of the exposure time. The optimal exposure period for this species likely depends on the exposure conditions.  相似文献   

8.
Parameterization of evaporation from a non-plant-covered surface is very important in the hierarchy strategy of modelling land surface processes. One of the representations frequently used in its computation is the resistance formulation. The performance of the evaporation schemes using the , , and their combination resistance approaches to parameterize evaporation from bare soil surfaces is discussed. For that purpose, the nine schemes, based on a different dependence of and on volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value, are used.The tests of performances of the considered schemes are based on time integrations by the land surface module (BARESOIL) using observed data. The 23 data sets at a bare surface experimental site in Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia on chernozem soil, were used for the resistance algorithm evaluation. The quality of the schemes was compared with the observed values of the latent heat flux using several statistical parameters.  相似文献   

9.
Summary ¶In order to better understand land-atmosphere interactions and increase the predictability of climate models, it is important to investigate the role of forest representation in climate modeling. Corresponding to the big-leaf model commonly employed in land surface schemes to represent the effects of a forest, a so called big-tree model, which uses multi-layer vegetation to represent the vertical canopy heterogeneity, was introduced and incorporated into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model RegCM2, to make the vegetation model more physically based. Using this augmented RegCM2 and station data for China during 1991 Meiyu season, we performed 10 experiments to investigate the effects of the application of the big-tree model on the summer monsoon climate.With the big-tree model incorporated into the regional climate model, some climate characteristics, e.g. the 3-month-mean surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation, are significantly and systematically changed over the model domain, and the change of the characteristics differs depending on the area. Due to the better representation of the shading effect in the big-tree model, the temperature of the lower layer atmosphere above the plant canopy is increased, which further influences the 850hPa temperature. In addition, there are significant decreases in the mean latent heat fluxes (within 20–30W/m2) in the three areas of the model domain.The application of the big-tree model influences not only the simulated climate of the forested area, but also that of the whole model domain, and its impact is greater on the lower atmosphere than on the upper atmosphere. The simulated rainfall and surface temperature deviate from the originally simulated result and are (or seem to be) closer to the observations, which implies that an appropriate representation of the big-tree model may improve the simulation of the summer monsoon climate.We also find that the simulated climate is sensitive to some big-tree parameter values and schemes, such as the shape, height, zero-plane displacement height and mixing-length scheme. The simulated local/grid differences may be very large although the simulated areal-average differences may be much lower. The area-average differences in the monthly-mean surface temperature and heat fluxes can amount to 0.5°C and 4W/m2, respectively, which correspond to maximum local/grid differences of 3.0°C and 40W/m2 respectively. It seems that the simulated climate is most sensitive to the parameter of the zero-plane displacement among the parameters studied.  相似文献   

10.
Summary Climatological studies show that the Altai-Sayan lee side is one of the major cyclogenesis areas in the Northern Hemisphere. In case of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis, the surface cyclone is generated when a primary cyclone is swept north of the mountains. In the mid-troposphere, a trough develops and finally turns into a cutoff low within 48 h. The main synoptic features are similar to those of Alpine cyclogenesis. Numerical simulations are performed to assess the effect of different representation of orography on the Altai-Sayan cyclogenesis. Two experiments are performed, a step-mountain (ETA) and an envelope orography (SGM) experiment. The ETA experiment produced the cyclogenesis in a way similar to that in the analysis both at the surface and at mid-troposphere. The SGM experiment failed in the simulation of the upper cutoff low. The difference in predicted pressure between the ETA and the SGM experiment shows a dipolar structure suggesting that the blocking effect of the mountains is essential in the development of the Altai-Sayan lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

11.
The impact of urbanization is assessed by comparing values of the radiation parameters at an urban location with those of a rural site. Urban Delhi was divided according to land-use and the effects of urbanization was studied on incoming short-wave (K), albedo, incoming longwave (L, outgoing longwave (L), and net radiation (Q *), were individually studied at four representative sites (Rural, Commercial, Residential and Industrial). MaximumK was observed in the rural and commercial areas whereas highL was observed in the commercial and industrial locations. High depletion ofK of the order of 13% was observed for the industrial location in the winter season. An increase ofL in, the industrial location is of the same order as that of the commercial location, i.e. 20%. The residential location shows quite moderate (4.6%) depletion ofK in comparison with other sites.Nomenclature U Urban - R Rural - K Incoming Short-wave radiation - L Incoming Long-wave radiation - L Outgoing Long-wave radiation - Q * Net Radiation - Albedo - K * Net Short-wave radiation - L * Net Long-wave radiation  相似文献   

12.
Turbulence measurements from a 30 m tower in the stably stratifiedboundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet are analyzed. The observationsinclude profile and eddy-correlation measurements at various levels. Atfirst, the analysis of the turbulence data from the lowest level (2 m aboveground) shows that the linear form of the non-dimensional wind profile(m) is in good agreement with the observations for z/L <0.4, whereL represents the Obukhov length. A linear regression yieldsm=1+5.8z/L. The non-dimensional temperature profile (h) at the2m level shows no tendency to increase with increasing stability. The datafrom the upper levels of the tower are analyzed in terms of both localscaling and surface-layer scaling. The m and the h values show atendency to level off at large stability (z/>0.4) where represents the local Obukhov length. Hence, the linear form of the functions is no longer appropriate under such conditions. The bestcorrespondence to the data can be achieved when using the expression ofBeljaars and Holtslag for m and h. The vertical profiles of theturbulent fluxes, the wind velocity variances and temperature variance arealso determined. The momentum flux profile and the profiles of wind speedvariances are in general agreement with other observations if a welldeveloped low-level wind maximum occurs, and the height of this maximum isused as a height scale.  相似文献   

13.
A numerical case study with a second-order turbulence closure model is proposed to study the role of urban canopy layer (UCL) for the formation of the nocturnal urban boundary layer (UBL). The turbulent diffusion coefficient was determined from an algebraic stress model. The concept of urban building surface area density is proposed to represent the UCL. Calculated results were also compared with field observation data. The height of the elevated inversion above an urban center was simulated and found to be approximately twice the average building height. The turbulent kinetic energy k, energy dissipation rate , and turbulence intensities u 2 and w 2 increase rapidly at the upwind edge of the urban area. The Reynolds stress uw displayed a nearly uniform profile inside the UBL, and the vertical sensible heat flux w had a negative value at the inversion base height. This indicates that the downward transport of sensible heat from the inversion base may play an important role in the formation of the nocturnal UBL.  相似文献   

14.
Parameterizing turbulent diffusion through the joint probability density   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
The convective mass flux parameterization often used in meteorological modeling expresses the vertical flux of a transported scalar as proportional to the product of the difference in mean values of the scalar in updrafts and downdrafts and their characteristic velocity. The proportionality factor is a constant to be specified. We show that this proportionality factor also appears in the relaxed eddy accumulation technique of Businger and Oncley. That associates the surface-layer flux of a scalar with the product of the standard deviation of vertical velocity and the mean concentration difference between updrafts and downdrafts.We show that this constant (b) is determined uniquely by the joint probability density (jpd) of vertical velocity and the scalar. Using large-eddy simulation, we generate this jpd for a conservative scalar diffusing through a convective boundary layer. It has quite different forms in top-down and bottom-up diffusion geometries. The bottom-up jpd is fairly well represented by a jointly Gaussian form and implies b ~ 0.6, in good agreement with the surface-layer value reported by Businger and Oncley. The top-down jpd is strikingly non-Gaussian and gives b ~ 0.47. Updrafts carry the bulk of the scalar flux - 70% in the bottom-up case, 60% in the top-down case.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

15.
The maintenance of an elevated inversion in steady flow above a cold, rotating surface is shown to be possible for a certain range of the buoyancy number bfV g, where b is the buoyant acceleration appropriate to the density deficiency of the fluid above the inversion, f is Coriolis parameter and V gis geostrophic velocity (so that fV gis also horizontal pressure gradient in kinematic units). The height of the inversion lid is determined by a balance of surface stress and buoyancy, in a way which may be deduced from laboratory experiments. With the aid of such empirical evidence a theory is constructed for the layer below the inversion lid. The cross-isobar angle of ground-level stress is found to increase with the buoyancy number, to a limiting value of 90, by which time the inversion descends to the ground. Under typical conditions, a temperature difference of order 10C is necessary to eliminate the possibility of an equilibrium, elevated inversion lid and reduce ground level wind stress to a vanishingly small value.Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Contribution #3011On leave from the University of Waterloo, Ontario  相似文献   

16.
Summary ¶Two cyclonic vortices close to each other, a binary cyclone or binary system, tend to rotate cyclonically relative to one another and to merge, i.e. the Fujiwhara effect. The point vortex model that represents barotropic binary cyclones predicts their rotation features as follows. The rotation rate is proportional linearly to the sum of the cyclones intensities and inversely to the square of their separation distance while the more intense cyclone rotates slower. Our earlier observational analysis of 1423 mid-latitude binary cyclones (Ziv and Alpert, 1995) showed a reasonable fit to theory, except for the absence of a correlation between individual speeds and intensities within the binary systems, and a reversal of the inverse rotation-separation relationship at the range of 1400–1800km.This study is the first attempt to describe the mid-latitude binary systems using potential vorticity concepts (PV thinking), which implies that a binary interaction takes place between the 3-D flow patterns induced by upper-PV or surface-thermal anomalies rather than by the surface cyclones alone. It is argued that the upper-anomalies dominate the rotation process, and hence the rotational speeds of the interacting surface cyclones are more closely correlated with the relative intensities of their corresponding upper-level anomalies rather than with their own intensities, as reflected in weather charts. Data analysis indicates that mid-latitude binary cyclones are normally associated with at least one upper-PV anomaly. This explains the absence of a correlation between the rotation speed and the intensity of the surface cyclones there.A unique type of a mid-latitude binary system is identified, in which one cyclone coincides with an upper major PV-anomaly and the other moves along the periphery of the former. Such a binary system is entitled here the Contact Binary System (CBS), in contrast with remote interacting systems implied by the point vortex theory.Analytical considerations yield an increase in the rotation rate with separation for CBSs of separation smaller than 1000–1500km, in contrast to the normal decrease with R 2. The contribution of CBSs is suggested here to explain the abnormal increase in rotation rate at 1400–1900km range.  相似文献   

17.
Summary The interaction of binary cyclonic vortices is investigated using the nondivergent barotropic model of Chan and Williams (1987) under two situations: a quiescent environment and a linearly-sheared background flow. It is found that the mutual interaction between the vortices results from a combination of two processes: the advection of symmetric vorticity by the asymmetric flow and the advection of asymmetric vorticity by the symmetric flow. The latter contribution is rather significant. Whether the vortices in a binary system attract or repel each other depends on the asymmetric vorticity distribution associated with the two vortices. Such a distribution is governed by the structure (size) of and the separation between the vortices. In the presence of a sheared flow, the contribution from the advection of asymmetric vorticity by the symmetric flow may also become appreciable depending on the structure and magnitude of the shear. Furthermore, the geographical locations of the vortices in relation to the sheared flow are also important in determining the relative movement of the vortices.In the presence of , the movements of the vortices are modified by the northwestward -drift However, the relative motion between the vortices is almost identical to that on an f-plane. In other words, the mutual interaction between the vortices is largely independent of . Alternatively, the two vortices can be considered to be one system which drifts towards the northwest under the influence of while they interact with each other within the system. Physically, this independence arises because the two relative vorticity advection terms have much larger magnitudes than the planetary vorticity advection term. However, the -effect is still important in that it modifies the asymmetric flow associated with each vortex and hence the asymmetric vorticity. Such modifications change the advection patterns compared with the =0 case and hence lead to different vortex movements. The presence of a linear shear causes the binary system to move as if it was a large (for a cyclonic shear) or smaller (for an anticyclonic shear) vortex under the influence of .With 22 Figures  相似文献   

18.
The commonly measured value of in the relaxed eddy accumulationmethod of about 0.56is shown to arise from the non-Gaussiannature of turbulence. Fourth-orderGram–Charlier functions forthe two-dimensional probability distributionsof variation in the horizontal component of wind velocityand concentrations of water vapour, carbondioxide and methane with respect to thevertical component of wind velocity are used to examinethe value of .An analytical solution for ispresented in terms of fourth-order moments.Under mean conditions, this solution givesa value for of0.557. Variation of is shown to be controlledprimarily by the ratio of the mean ofc'w3 (where c'is relevant to the entity of interest andw' is vertical component of windvelocity) to the correlationcoefficient between the entity concentrationand vertical component of wind velocity.  相似文献   

19.
THE EJECTION-SWEEP CHARACTER OF SCALAR FLUXES IN THE UNSTABLE SURFACE LAYER   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  
In the atmospheric surface layer, it is widely accepted that ejection andsweep eddy motions, typically associated with coherent structures, areresponsible for much of the land-surface evaporation, sensible heat, andmomentum fluxes. The present study analyzes the ejection-sweep propertiesusing velocity and scalar fluctuation measurements over tall natural grassand bare soil surfaces. It is shown that momentum ejections and sweeps occurat equal frequencies (D eject D sweep 0.29) irrespective of surfaceroughness length or atmospheric stability conditions. Also, their magnitudesare comparable to values reported from open channel velocity measurements (Dsweep 0.33; D eject : 0.30). The scalar D eject is constant andsimilar in magnitude to the momentum D eject( 0.29) over both surfacesand for a wide range of atmospheric stability conditions, in contrast to thescalar D sweep. The scalar sweep frequency is shown to depend on the scalarskewness for the dynamic convective and free convective sublayers, but isidentical to D eject for the dynamic sublayer. The threshold scalar skewnessat which the D sweep dependence occurs is 0.25, in agreement with theaccepted temperature skewness value at near-neutral conditions. In contrastto a previous surface-layer experiment, this investigation demonstrates thatthe third-order cumulant expansion method (CEM) reproduces the measuredrelative flux contribution of ejections and sweeps (S0) for momentumand scalars at both sites. Furthermore, a linkage between S0 and thescalar variance budget is derived via the third-order CEM in analogy tomomentum. It is shown that S0 can be related to the flux divergenceterm and that such a relationship can be estimated from surface-layersimilarity theory, and the three sublayer model of Kader and Yaglom andproposed similarity functions.  相似文献   

20.
Zusammenfassung An einem Material von 100 Fällen eindeutig gesicherten Herztodes, die im Institut für Gerichtliche und Soziale Medizin in Frankfurt am Main aus einem bestimmten Bereich — Raum Frankfurt am Main — und einer bestimmten zeit—Kalenderjahre 1948 bis 1950—zur Autopsie gelangten, einerseits und den bioklimatischen Daten für den gleichen Raum und die gleiche Zeit anderseits, wurde der Zusammenhang von Herztodesfällen und Wettervorgängen mit der Wahrscheinlichkeitsüberlegung, dem Wahrscheinlichkeitsintegral und formalstatistischen Methoden überprüft. Die Auswertung ergab, daß eine starke Abhängigkeit des Herztodes vom Wettergeschehen besteht. Die Häufung der Herztodesfälle konnte für die Sammelgruppe Wetterstörungen, für labiles Aufgleiten, Warmfront mit Aufgleiten und Kaltfront mit Turbulenz ebenso eindeutig gesichert werden, wie die Verminderung der Herztodesfälle in störungsfreien Zeiten. Die hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Beziehung besteht ferner für Kaltfront mit Aufgleiten und in geringerem Maße auch für Föhndurchbruch. Während bei Okklusion das Material zu einem abschließenden Urteil zu gering war, konnte bei allen übrigen Wetterlagen eine Beziehung zum plötzlichen Herztod nicht nachgewiesen werden. Auch für die Gruppen, bei denen eine enge Beziehung statistisch gesichert werden konnte, sei betont, daß die Wettervorgänge nicht die alleinige Ursache des plötzlichen Herztodes, sondern nur ein auslösendes Moment bei schon vorher schwer geschädigten Herzen darstellen.
Summary On the basis of 100 ascertained cases of cardiac death from a certain region—province Frankfort on-the-Main—and a certain period—calendar years 1948 to 1950—, submitted to autopsy in the Institute for Legal and Social Medicine at Frankfort on-the-Main, and of bioclimatic data from the same region and period, the relation between cardiac death and meteorological phenomena was examined by means of probability considerations, the probability integral, and methods of formal statistics. Evaluation of this material showed cardiac death to be strongly dependent on weather conditions. Increase of frequency of cardiac death could be established without any doubt for the collective groups weather disturbances, unstable ascending motion, warm front with ascending motion, cold front with turbulence, whereas decrease of frequency was found in undisturbed periods. Furthermore, high probability of an existing relation was found for cold front with ascending motion and, to a lesser degree, also for foehn invasion. As to occlusion no definite conclusions could be drawn for scarcity of observations. For all the other weather types no relation to sudden cardiac death could be proved. Meteorological phenomena are by no means the only cause of sudden cardiac death, not even for the groups in which a close relation could be established statistically. They have but an initiatory effect in case of prior severe heart diseases.
Résumé Disposant d'un matériel médical de 100 cas de mort cardiaque qui ont fait l'objet d'autopsies à l'Institut de médecine légale et sociale de Francfort sur le Mein (région de Francfort et période de 1948 à 1950), et disposant d'autre part pour la même région et pour la même période d'observations bioclimatologiques, l'auteur a étudié la relation de ces décès avec les phénomènes météorologiques à l'aide des méthodes modernes de statistique, de l'intégrale de probabilité etc. Le résultat montre une étroite dépendance centre les cas de mort cardiaque et les conditions météorologiques. On a pu vérifier sans doute possible l'augmentation des décès lors de «perturbations», d'«ascendances labiles», de «fronts chauds avec glissement ascendant», de «fronts froids avec turbulence», de même que leur diminution lors de périodes non troublées. La forte corrélation subsiste avec les «fronts froids avec ascendance» et à un moindre degré avec «l'invasion du foehn». Tandis que pour les «occlusions» le matériel disponible était trop restreint pour aboutir à une conclusion, l'examen des situations autres que les précédentes n'a pas conduit à une relation intime. Il convient de remarquer que pour tous les groupes de météores ayant donné une corrélation statistique très nette, les phénomènes météorologiques n'ont joué qu'un rôle déclancheur chez des malades déjà gravement atteints.

Mit 2 Textabbildungen.  相似文献   

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