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1.
Landslides are natural disasters which can pose a serious threat to human and property in many areas around the world. The Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model was used to investigate the rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a forested mountain region, Korea. Various input data for TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic characteristics, soil depth, material strength, and hydraulic properties. A series of calculations were conducted in determining the slope stability over the Jangheung region in Korea during the storm occurred on August 6, 1998. The results show that TRIGRS model captured about 64.1% of landslides that were extracted from the IKONOS2 imageries. The model demonstrated how the factor of safety changed with time during a storm considering both the transient and spatial responses of pore water pressure in its slope stability calculation.  相似文献   

2.
The paper describes a large-area analysis of the triggering zones of shallow landslides on a case of unsaturated layered volcanic air-fall (pyroclastic) soil deposits in Cervinara site (18 km2), Southern Italy. The physically-based model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration-Based Grid Regional Slope-Stability) is used, which is used with either saturated or unsaturated conditions and implemented in a GIS platform. In addition to using the TRIGRS model to simulate some recent landslides, a new simplified approach is also tested to take into account the actual layered soil stratigraphy. The consistency check of the model and of the input data is performed with reference to slope stable conditions before rainfall. The performances of the models are evaluated through the ROC curves and two other quantitative indexes taken from the literature referring to the slope failures caused by December 1999 rainstorm. Notwithstanding the simplifications and limitations of the present work, both unsaturated conditions and layered stratigraphy are outlined as key factors for the slope stability of shallow deposits of unsaturated coarse-grained soils subjected to short heavy rainfall.  相似文献   

3.
黄冈市是湖北省汛期地质灾害频发区之一, 地质灾害类型以滑坡为主, 其中75%为降雨型滑坡。通过统计分析黄冈市近10年滑坡与降雨的相关关系, 在考虑黄冈市地质灾害易发性分区基础上, 研究黄冈市降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值, 利用逻辑回归模型建立滑坡发生的概率预测模型, 再针对不同等级易发区提出对应的气象预警判据。最后以历史降雨及其滑坡事件检验预警判据的合理性与可信度。结果表明, 所建立的气象预警判据在时间尺度上由以往依托气象部门的中长期预警精细到了24 h的短临预警, 在空间尺度上确定了不同等级易发区的降雨型滑坡气象预警判据。预警准确率大幅提升, 显著提高了黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警精度, 可为临灾转移提供精细化的技术指导, 有效降低降雨型滑坡灾害带来的生命财产损失。   相似文献   

4.
统计确定临界降雨量是滑坡早期预警常用的方法。东南沿海地区台风暴雨不同于一般降雨, 常引发滑坡灾害, 从而威胁沿海地区人民生命财产安全。为了建立台风和非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量预测模型, 以浙江丽水市为例, 基于2010-2020年台风暴雨、非台风降雨诱发滑坡与降雨量的统计, 构建了丽水市滑坡发生概率和有效降雨量的关系, 提出了多时长临界降雨量预测模型, 并开展了台风和非台风降雨型滑坡预测模型结果的对比分析。结果表明, 非台风降雨与台风暴雨之间雨型和雨量差异是导致丽水市内2类降雨滑坡预测模型差异的主要原因; 以多时长预测模型确定的临界雨量值法和有效降雨天数更加符合丽水市降雨型滑坡的预测预报, 且预测精度相比于传统相关性分析法更高。研究成果对于开发区域降雨型滑坡预测模型具有理论意义, 对我国东南沿海地区汛期滑坡早期预警具有重要实际意义。   相似文献   

5.
Dynamic assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilistic analysis method that combines TRIGRS and the point-estimate method for evaluating the hazards of shallow landslides have been proposed under the condition of rainfall over a large area. TRIGRS provides the transient infiltration model to analyze the pore water pressure during a rainfall. The point-estimate method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the soil parameters, which is performed in the geographic information system (GIS). In this paper, we use this method to evaluate the hazards of shallow landslides in Badong County, Three Gorges Reservoir, under two different types of rainfall intensity, and the results are compared with the field investigation. The results showed that the distribution of the hazard map is consistent with the observed landslides. To some extent, the distribution of the hazard map reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of the shallow landslide caused by rainfall.  相似文献   

6.
Landslides are increasing since the 1980s in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. This is due to the increase of the frequency and intensity of precipitation caused by complex geological structures, the presence of steep landforms, seasonal heavy rainfall, and the intensifcation of human activities. In this study, we propose a landslide prediction model based on the analysis of intraday rainfall （IR） and antecedent effective rainfall （AER）. Primarily, the number of days and degressive index of the antecedent effective rainfall which affected landslide occurrences in the areas around Qin Mountains, Li Mountains and Loess Tableland was established. Secondly, the antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall were calculated from weather data which were used to construct critical thresholds for the 10%, 50% and 90% probabilities for future landslide occurrences in Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland. Finally, the regions corresponding to different warning levels were identified based on the relationship between precipitation and the threshold, that is; “A” region is safe, “B” region is on watch alert, “C” region is on warning alert and “D” region is on severe warning alert. Using this model, a warning program is proposed which can predict rainfall-induced landslides by means of real-time rain gauge data and real-time geo-hazard alert and disaster response programs. Sixteen rain gauges were installed in the Xi’an region by keeping in accordance with the regional geology and landslide risks. Based on the data from gauges, this model accurately achieves the objectives of conducting real-time monitoring as well as providing early warnings of landslides in the Xi’an region.  相似文献   

7.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(7):1565-1580
Landslides induced by prolonged rainfalls are frequent mass movements along the northeastern portion of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico, causing significant damage to infrastructure. In this work, we have studied the connection between rainfall and landslides in the Santa Rosa Canyon, a catchment located in the northeastern Mexico. A landslide database triggered by major storms and hurricanes that have hit the region over the past 30 years was analyzed. A total of 92 rainfall events in the Santa Rosa Canyon were studied to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger shallow landslides. For each event the duration(D, in hours) and the cumulated rainfall event(E, in mm) were determined by using historical rainfall data from weather stations located near the study area. We have proposed an ED threshold for rainfall-induced landslides with durations 0.5 D 120 hours to address the conditions that trigger these events in the study area. On analyzing the obtained threshold, it has been established that almost 60 mm of a daily rainfall accumulation is required to trigger shallow landslides in the study area. This estimation is consistent with other calculations made for areas close to the Santa Rosa Canyon. Finally, we validated the predictive capability of the threshold with a different set of rainfall data that did not result in landslides performing a straightforward receiver operating characteristic analysis. A good approach was obtained, especially for rainfall events with daily measurements. Results could be used as input information in the design of a landslide early warning system for the northeastern Mexico, and replicated for other landslide prone areas in the region.  相似文献   

8.
The Himalayan region has been severely affected by landslides especially during the monsoons. In particular, Kalimpong region in Darjeeling Himalayas has recorded several landslides and has caused significant loss of life, property and agricultural land. The study region, Chibo has experienced several landslides in the past which were mainly debris and earth slide. Globally, several types of rainfall thresholds have been used to determine rainfall-induced landslide incidents. In this paper, probabilistic thresholds have been defined as it would provide a better understanding compared to deterministic thresholds which provide binary results, i.e., either landslide or no landslide for a particular rainfall event. Not much research has been carried out towards validation of rainfall thresholds using an effective and robust monitoring system. The thresholds are then validated using a reliable system utilizing Microelectromechanical Systems(MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensor installed in the region. The system measures the tilt of the instrument which is installed at shallow depths and is ideal for an early warning system for shallow landslides. The change in observed tilt angles due to rainfall would give an understanding of the applicability of the probabilistic model. The probabilities determined using Bayes' theorem have been calculated using the rainfall parameters and landslide data in 2010-2016. The rainfall values were collected from an automatic rain gauge setup near the Chibo region. The probabilities were validated using the MEMS based monitoring system setup in Chibo for the monsoon season of 2017. This is the first attempt to determine probabilities and validate it with a robust and effective monitoring system in Darjeeling Himalayas. This study would help in developing an early warning system for regions where the installation of monitoring systems may not be feasible.  相似文献   

9.
由于具有类似的工程地质和水文地质条件, 在高度相关的降雨作用下, 同一个区域中的降雨诱发浅层斜坡失稳灾害常成群出现。在区域尺度预测浅层斜坡失稳灾害对滑坡灾害的防灾减灾工作具有重要的意义。为此, 提出了一种基于力学原理的降雨诱发浅层斜坡失稳灾害预测新模型RARIL。该模型采用修正Green-Ampt模型进行降雨入渗分析, 采用无限体边坡模型进行安全系数计算, 利用可靠度原理考虑区域斜坡稳定性分析中的参数不确定性。该模型具有可考虑降雨诱发浅层斜坡的失稳力学机理、可考虑区域内斜坡土体参数不确定性, 以及计算效率高、易于在GIS平台上实现等优点。案例分析表明, RARIL模型较为准确地预测了2010年8月12日11∶00至2010年8月14日9∶00期间强降雨在四川省汶川县映秀镇附近的303省道K0-K20段沿线区域引发的滑坡灾害, 研究结果证明RARIL模型在预测降雨诱发区域斜坡失稳灾害方面有很好的应用前景。   相似文献   

10.
In the central Nepal Himalaya, landslides form the major natural hazards annually resulting in many casualties and damage. Structural as well as non-structural measures are in place to minimize the risk of landslide hazard. To reduce the landslide risk,a Landslide Early Warning System(LEWS) as a nonstructural measure has been piloted at Sundrawati village(Kalinchowk rural municipality, Dolakha district) to identify its effectiveness. Intensive discussions with stakeholders, aided by landslide susceptibility map, resulted in a better understanding of surface dynamics and the relationship between rainfall and surface movement. This led to the development of a LEWS comprised of extensometers,soil moisture sensors, rain gauge stations, and solar panels as an energy source that blows siren receiving signals via a micro-controller and interfacing circuit.The data generated through the system is transmitted via a Global System for Mobile Communications(GSM) network to responsible organizations in realtime to circulate the warning to local residents. This LEWS is user-friendly and can be easily operated by a community. The successful pilot early warning system has saved 495 people from 117 households in August 2018.However,landslide monitoring and dissemination of warning information remains a complex process where technical and communications skill should work closely together.  相似文献   

11.
Topographic attributes have been identified as the most important factor in controlling the initiation and distribution of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall.As a result,these landslides influence the evolution of local surface topography.In this research,an area of 2.6 km 2 loess catchment in the Huachi County was selected as the study area locating in the Chinese Loess Plateau.The landslides inventory and landslide types were mapped using global position system(GPS) and field mapping.The landslide inventory shows that these shallow landslides involve different movement types including slide,creep and fall.Meanwhile,main topographic attributes were generated based on a high resolution digital terrain model(5 m × 5 m),including aspect,slope shape,elevation,slope angle and contributing area.These maps were overlaid with the spatial distributions of total landslides and each type of landslides in a geographic information system(GIS),respectively,to assess their spatial frequency distributions and relative failure potentials related to these selected topographic attributes.The spatial analysis results revealed that there is a close relation between the topographic attributes of the postlandsliding local surface and the types of landslide movement.Meanwhile,the types of landslide movement have some obvious differences in local topographic attributes,which can influence the relative failure potential of different types of landslides.These results have practical significance to mitigate natural hazard and understandgeomorphologic process in thick loess area.  相似文献   

12.
Early warning model of debris flow is important for providing local residents with reliable and accurate warning information to escape from debris flow hazards. This research studied the debris flow initiation in the Yindongzi gully in Dujiangyan City, Sichuan province, China with scaled-down model experiments. We set rainfall intensity and slope angle as dominating parameters and carried out 20 scaled-down model tests under artificial rainfall conditions. The experiments set four slope angles(32°, 34°, 37°, 42°) and five rainfall intensities(60 mm/h, 90 mm/h, 120 mm/h, 150 mm/h, and 180 mm/h) treatments. The characteristic variables in the experiments, such as, rainfall duration, pore water pressure, moisture content, surface inclination, and volume were monitored. The experimental results revealed the failure mode of loose slope material and the process of slope debris flow initiation, as well as the relationship between the surface deformation and the physical parameters of experimental model. A traditional rainfall intensity-duration early warning model(I-D model) was firstly established by using a mathematical regression analysis, and it was then improved into ISD model and ISM model(Here, I is rainfall Intensity, S is Slope angle, D is rainfall Duration, and M is Moisture content). The warning model can provide reliable early warning of slope debris flow initiation.  相似文献   

13.
以湖南省澧源镇为例,利用证据权模型和灰色关联度模型分别计算了坡度、地层岩性、斜坡形态、土地利用类型、人类工程活动5个因子二级状态证据权值和一级因子权重;综合2种模型确定全区滑坡易发性指数后,完成基于斜坡单元的全区滑坡易发性区划;根据研究区岩土体类型（碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩类、碳酸盐岩类和松散岩土体类）分组研究不同滑坡发生概率下的有效降雨阈值曲线（I-D曲线）。研究降雨时间为3日、有效强度为22.4 mm/d的降雨工况下各岩土体类型滑坡发生的时间概率。综合时间概率和易发性结果得到澧源镇基于有效降雨阈值的滑坡灾害危险性区划图。研究结果表明:澧源镇滑坡灾害高和极高易发区占研究区总面积的25%,主要沿澧河分布;极高危险区和高危险区占研究区总面积的14%,主要分布在澧河北侧。   相似文献   

14.
青岛市崂山区特殊的自然地理和地质环境条件,在降雨以及人类工程-经济活动的影响下,引发了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等突发性地质灾害.在对区内地质灾害点全面调查、排查和勘测工作的基础上,通过学习总结其他省市经验,建立了青岛市崂山区青山滑坡地质灾害自动监测预警示范区,为该区地质灾害防治工作提供技术依据.  相似文献   

15.
Ethiopia has a mountainous landscape which can be divided into the Northwestern and Southeastern plateaus by the Main Ethiopian Rift and Afar Depression. Debre Sina area is located in Central Ethiopia along the escarpment where landslide problem is frequent due to steep slope, complex geology, rift tectonics, heavy rainfall and seismicity. In order to tackle this problem, preparing a landslide susceptibility map is very important. For this, GISbased frequency ratio(FR) and logistic regression(LR) models have been applied using landslide inventory and the nine landslide factors(i.e. lithology, land use, distance from river fault, slope, aspect, elevation, curvature and annual rainfall). Database construction, weighting each factor classes or factors, preparing susceptibility map and validation were the major steps to be undertaken. Both models require a rasterized landslide inventory and landslide factor maps. The former was classified into training and validation landslides. Using FR model, weights for each factor classes were calculated and assigned so that all the weighted factor maps can be added to produce a landslide susceptibility map. In the case of LR model, the entire study area is firstly divided into landslide and non-landslide areas using the training landslides. Then, these areas are changed into landslide and non-landslide points so as to extract the FR maps of the nine landslide factors. Then a linear relationship is established between training landslides and landslide factors in SPSS. Based on this relationship, the final landslide susceptibility map is prepared using LR equation. The success-rate and prediction-rate of FR model were 74.8% and 73.5%, while in case of LR model these were 75.7% and 74.5% respectively. A close similarity in the prediction and validation rates showed that the model is acceptable. Accuracy of LR model is slightly better in predicting the landslide susceptibility of the area compared to FR model.  相似文献   

16.
金沙江结合带结构破碎,软弱岩层发育,流域性特大高位地质灾害频繁发生.针对该区域开展大范围滑坡调查与监测研究,对减灾防灾具有重要意义.以金沙江结合带巴塘段为试验区,采用堆叠InSAR技术分别利用升轨、降轨Sentinel-1 A卫星数据对该区域滑坡隐患开展了调查研究.在此基础上,以中心绒乡滑坡群为重点研究区,利用多维小基...  相似文献   

17.
Landslides not only cause property losses,but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in the mountainous areas. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent by early warning systems for landslides. In this paper, a realtime monitoring network and a computer-aided automatic early warning system(EWS) are presented with details of their design and an example of application in the Longjingwan landslide, Kaiyang County, Guizhou Province. Then, according to principle simple method of landslide prediction, the setting of alarm levels and the design of appropriate counter-measures are presented. A four-level early warning system(Zero, Outlook, Attention and Warning) has been adopted, and the velocity threshold was selected as the main warning threshold for the landslide occurrence, but expert judgment is included in the EWS to avoid false alarms. A case study shows the applicability and reliability for landslide risk management, and recommendations are presented for other similar projects.  相似文献   

18.
降雨过程中降雨强度的变化会影响土体渗透率及饱和过程, 从而改变土体的力学性质, 影响泥石流起动模式及破坏规模。为探究不同降雨模式对震后泥石流起动机制的影响, 自制了小比例模型槽, 结合可控雨型的降雨模拟系统, 进行了人工降雨诱发泥石流的室内模型试验; 基于不同降雨模式下泥石流的起动过程分析, 对坡体内部含水率和孔隙水压力的变化规律进行了研究。研究结果表明: 递增型降雨模式下泥石流发生突然, 呈整体滑坡转化为泥石流起动模式, 坡体破坏规模最大; 递减型降雨模式下表现为后退式溃散失稳起动模式; 均匀型降雨模式下则表现为溯源侵蚀起动模式; 中峰型降雨模式下以局部滑坡转化为泥石流起动模式; Ⅴ型降雨模式下则由坡面侵蚀加剧转化为泥石流启动模式, 破坏规模最小。研究结果可以为九寨沟地区泥石流的预报预警提供参考。   相似文献   

19.
Regolith thickness is considered as a contributing factor for the occurrence of landslides. Although, mostly it is ignored because of complex nature and as it requires more time and resources for investigation. This study aimed to appraise the role of regolith thickness on landslide distribution in the Muzaffarabad and surrounding areas, NW Himalayas. For this purpose regolith thickness samples were evenly collected from all the lithological units at representative sites within different slope and elevation classes in the field. Topographic attributes (slope, aspect, drainage, Topographic Wetness Index, elevation and curvature) were derived from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (12.5 m resolution). ArcGIS Model Builder was used to develop the regolith thickness model. Stepwise regression technique was used to explore the spatial variation of regolith thickness using topographic attributes and lithological units. The derived model explains about 88% regolith thickness variation. The model was validated and shows good agreement (70%) between observed and predicted values. Subsequently, the derived regolith model was used to understand the relationship between regolith thickness and landslide distribution. The analysis shows that most of the landslides were located within 1–5 m regolith thickness. However, landslide concentration is highest within 5–10 m regolith thickness, which shows that regolith thickness played a significant role for the occurrence of landslide in the studied area.  相似文献   

20.
Earthquake-triggered landslides have aroused widespread attention because of their tremendous ability to harm people's lives and properties.The best way to avoid and mitigate their damage is to develop landslide hazard maps and make them available to the public in advance of an earthquake.Future construction can then be built according to the level of hazard and existing structures can be retrofit as necessary.During recent years various approaches have been made to develop landslide hazard maps using statistical analysis or physical models.However,these methods have limitations.This study introduces a new GIS-based approach,using the contributing weight model,to evaluate the hazard of seismically-induced landslides.In this study,the city and surrounding area of Dujiangyan was selected as the research area because of its moderate-high seismic activity.The parameters incorporated into the model that related to the probability of landslide occurrence were:slope gradient,slope aspect,geomorphology,lithology,base level,surface roughness,earthquake intensity,fault proximity,drainage proximity,and road proximity.The parameters were converted into raster data format with a resolution of 25×25m2 pixels.Analysis of the GIS correlations shows that the highest earthquake-induced landslide hazard areas are mainly in the hills and in some of the moderately steep mountainous areas of central Dujiangyan.The highest hazard zone covers an area of 11.1% of the study area,and the density distribution of seismically-induced landslides was 3.025/km2 from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The moderately hazardous areas are mainly distributed within the moderately steep mountainous regions of the northern and southeastern parts of the study area and the hills of the northeastern part;covering 32.0% of the study area and with a density distribution of 2.123/km2 resulting from the Wenchuan earthquake.The lowest hazard areas are mainly distributed in the topographically flat plain in the northeastern part and some of the relatively gently slopes in the moderately steep mountainous areas of the northern part of Dujiangyan and the surrounding area.The lowest hazard areas cover 56.9% of the study area and exhibited landslide densities of 0.941/km2 and less from the Wenchuan earthquake.The quality of the hazard map was validated using a comparison with the distribution of landslides that were cataloged as occurring from the Wenchuan earthquake.43.1% of the study area consists of high and moderate hazardous zones,and these regions include 83.5% of landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake.The successful analysis shows that the contributing weight model can be effective for earthquake-triggered landslide hazard appraisal.The model's results can provide the basis for risk management and regional planning is.  相似文献   

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