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1.
Reservoir-landslide hazard assessment based on GIS: A case study in Wanzhou section of the Three Gorges Reservoir 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Reservoir-landslide is mainly caused by changes in hydrodynamic conditions of slope interior at the time of water storage or discharge. The current study mainly focuses on the typical reservoir landslide, but the sudden occurrence of some unknown landslides brought a lot of difficulties for hazards prevention. Therefore, we proposed a method to evaluate the regional scale reservoir-landslide hazard. We took Wanzhou section of Three Gorges Reservoir （China） as the study area and systemically and synthetically carried out the reservoir-landslide hazard evaluation under the condition of water level regulation. Firstly, we made reservoir-landslide susceptibility assessment by using the methods of spatial analysis and statistics based on geological and geomorphological materials and field survey data, and then, analyzed the regional-scale slope stability based on the infinite slope model used to analyze the bank slope stability change under the condition of water fluctuation, finally, developed a reservoir-landslide hazard evaluation model based on the results of susceptibility and stability. The hazard evaluation model was used to predict and evaluate the hazard change under the role of water level regulation. The results showed that the landslide hazard of the whole region decreased during water storage, landslide hazards increased during water discharge. The faster the regulation speed, the greater the slope hazard. The results can provide the basis for hazard management and regional land-use planning. 相似文献
2.
研究抗滑桩的受力特征是进行抗滑桩设计工作的关键。我国三峡库区部分堆积层滑坡发育多层滑带,而目前抗滑桩的设计方法仅针对单层滑坡,因此,对多层滑带堆积层滑坡—抗滑桩受力特征的研究具有重要意义。基于三峡库区堆积层滑坡工程地质特征,开展了多层滑带堆积层滑坡物理试验模型,在滑坡的后缘施加推力来模拟滑坡演化过程,同时监测滑坡—抗滑桩体系的多场信息。试验结果表明,在多层滑带堆积层滑坡的演化过程中,桩身受力表现出了很好的规律性。根据坡表位移的变化趋势,将滑坡演化分为4个阶段,在此基础上对桩身受力进行分析。滑坡推力分布图式中出现了4个极大值,土体抗力分布图式中出现唯一最大值,该试验结果为抗滑桩的设计提供了一定的理论支持。 相似文献
3.
Building vulnerability evaluation in landslide deformation phase 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Building vulnerability evaluation is important in the risk assessment on earthquake and flood hazards. But for landslide hazard, it is also a very important part for the people in buildings. Most discussions or researches about building vulnerability are for landslide failure, few for landslide in deformation phase. For this objective, this paper discussed about building vulnerability evaluation using Zhaoshuling landslide as an example Zhaoshuling landslide named located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. After a field survey on the geological condition of landslide, detailed field investigation on the buildings’ location and structure is carried out. To get landslide surface deformation, numerical simulation method is used under the combining condition of water fluctuation and rainfall. Then building deformation and probable damage degree is analyzed according to landslide surface deformation and the relative theory in mining. Based on the national standard building damage classification system, the vulnerability of all the buildings on the landslide is semi-quantitatively evaluated. 相似文献
4.
三峡库区大型-特大型滑坡发育，尤以层状岩质滑坡的危害性大。因库区各段地质条件差异使得滑坡成因模式各不相同，这影响了滑坡的运动形式和岩土体解体程度。在收集三峡库区51处典型的大型-特大型层状岩质滑坡调查资料基础上，根据堆积岩体结构和区段地质条件反推该段滑坡破坏成因模式，而不同成因模式下的滑坡坡体渗透性不同，分析已有滑坡对库水位变动存在的复活响应差异，据此得出以下结论:①在成因模式上，除顺层滑移型滑坡在库区中均有分布外，从库首至库尾随着岩层倾角的逐渐减缓，滑坡成因模式从崩塌型、反倾弯曲型逐渐过渡到平推式；②在坡体渗透性上，成因模式造成的岩体结构变化与坡体中的泥质含量共同作用，导致顺层滑移型滑坡前后缘渗透性存在较大差异；反倾型滑坡渗透性则整体变化较小；③在库水位变动影响下，不同坡体渗透性与滑面形态共同决定了滑坡的复活变形差异。 相似文献
5.
在库水位波动和降雨作用的共同影响下，库岸滑坡的变形规律往往更为复杂。以三峡库区麻柳林滑坡为例，基于野外调查、钻探编录、深部位移监测以及数值模拟等手段，分析了库水位波动和降雨作用下滑坡变形特征及演化规律。结果表明:麻柳林滑坡在粉质黏土层和块石层交界处发育一个次级滑带，目前该滑坡主要沿次级滑带运动，导致次级滑动的原因与坡体物质的差异性有关；Si(Sf)指标分析法揭示滑坡的滑带还未完全破坏，滑坡仍处于蠕变状态；根据三峡水库水位调度规律，将一个完整水文年划分为6个阶段，数值模拟结果表明滑坡在库水位缓慢下降阶段变形速率较小、在快速下降阶段和低水位阶段变形速率持续增大、在快速上升阶段和缓慢上升阶段以及高水位阶段变形速率则保持平稳。其中，降雨的直接影响和降雨导致库水位波动进而对滑坡变形造成的间接影响，使得麻柳林滑坡在低水位阶段的变形显著增加、稳定性最差，应加强该时段内滑坡的监测和预警。 相似文献
6.
动水驱动型滑坡状态识别能更有效地辅助分析滑坡形变规律, 实现滑坡状态的准确识别对深入展开动水驱动型滑坡状态研究具有重要意义。针对目前动水驱动型滑坡突变状态研究较少, 难以获得相关特征, 从而导致状态识别性能不佳的问题, 提出了一种应用于动水驱动型滑坡状态识别的生成对抗网络学习方法。本方法通过构建滑坡状态监测数据矩阵, 依据少量数据样本设计合理的生成器网络完成对滑坡状态的数据扩增并设计判别器网络实现扩增数据的筛选, 通过对抗生成网络实现对滑坡状态的分类, 达到滑坡状态识别的目的。以三峡库区白水河滑坡为研究对象, 将降雨、库水位、深部位移和地表位移等多源监测数据进行了规范化处理, 设计生成器网络和对抗器网络完成了对滑坡状态数据的扩增, 设计滑坡状态识别生成对抗网络完成了对滑坡状态的分类和识别。结果表明, 生成对抗网络对滑坡状态识别具有较高的准确率。研究结果证实本方法能够对目标区域内的动水驱动型滑坡状态进行准确识别和分类, 可直接应用于工程实际。 相似文献
7.
以奉节新铺下二台滑坡为例, 基于GPS位移监测数据、裂缝数据、降雨量及库水位等多源数据, 总结分析了大型古滑坡的复活规律, 引入滑坡中长期预报模型, 实现了以季度或月份为时间单位的跨水文年滑坡位移预测, 并通过岩土体蠕变压缩模型, 验证了推移式滑坡后缘裂缝形成机理。结果表明: ①降雨是下二台滑坡变形的主导因素, 滑坡变形使得滑体产生裂缝并成为降雨入渗通道, 加剧了岩体破碎与软弱层软化, 降低了滑坡稳定性, 集中持续降雨可使滑坡失稳破坏; ②通过模型预测值与地表监测数据的比较, 将年降雨量作为滑坡中长期预报模型中的主控因素具有实际可操作性且有助于提高滑坡中长预报精度; ③推移式滑坡后缘裂缝由滑坡推移式位移和岩土体压缩形成, 引入蠕变压缩模型计算的裂缝宽度并和监测数据的比较说明, 蠕变压缩模型非常适合该类边坡, 同时应用岩土体蠕变压缩模型反推得到岩土体平均变形模量, 判断岩体破碎程度, 可以为滑坡稳定性分析及后续工程治理提供参考。 相似文献
8.
In order to reach the designated final water level of 175 m, there were three impoundment stages in the Three Gorges Reservoir, with water levels of 135 m, 156 m and 175 m. Baishuihe landslide in the Reservoir was chosen to analyze its displacement characteristics and displacement variability at the different stages. Based on monitoring data, the landslide displacement was mainly influenced by rainfall and drawdown of the reservoir water level. However, the magnitude of the rise and drawdown of the water level after the reservoir water level reached 175 m did not accelerate landslide displacement. The prediction of landslide displacement for active landslides is very important for landslide risk management. The time series of cumulative displacement was divided into a trend term and a periodic term using the Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter method. The polynomial model was used to predict the trend term. The extreme learning machine(ELM) and least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) were chosen to predict theperiodic term. In the prediction model for the periodic term, input variables based on the effects of rainfall and reservoir water level in landslide displacement were selected using grey relational analysis. Based on the results, the prediction precision of ELM is better than that of LS-SVM for predicting landslide displacement. The method for predicting landslide displacement could be applied by relevant authorities in making landslide emergency plans in the future. 相似文献
9.
滑坡作为水库库区主要地质灾害类型之一,其风险研究一直是近年来的研究热点。水库滑坡涌浪的产生使滑坡灾害的影响范围由滑坡源本身扩散到上下游数千米,极大地扩大了滑坡风险的承灾体类型与数量以及灾害损失程度。因涉及交叉学科领域,滑坡涌浪风险评估是滑坡风险灾害链评价的难点与前沿课题。本文综合了前人近几十年来的研究成果,首先从危险性、易损性以及风险3个方面出发,对国内外的滑坡涌浪风险研究现状和常用的研究方法进行了概述,并对重点代表性研究成果进行了述评分析,针对滑坡涌浪风险研究方面的新进展进行了介绍,包括考虑实际河道地形复杂性的试验研究、聚焦于滑坡-水体相互作用机制的多种数值模拟方法耦合研究,以及基于多种承灾体类型的易损性评价体系等。然后对近年来三峡库区发生过的多起滑坡涌浪风险管控实例的过程与后果进行了详细的阐述。最后基于多年的研究经验提出了滑坡涌浪灾害链风险研究的新方向和新思路,即涌浪风险应与滑坡风险评价体系相互融合,并沿着定量化、规范化、精细化的方向发展。 相似文献
10.
It is of significance to research failure mechanism of debris landslides that are widespread in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on the statistical analysis of the developmental law and failure mode of debris landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir, the mode of progressive failure is found. The mechanical model for progressive failure of debris landslides with two slip bands is also established by applying slice method. According to the results of the downslide force between adjacent slices, if the downslide force of lower slice is larger than zero, the slice fails along the major sliding surface, otherwise it is stable. In result, the failure range is obtained. The stress function can be determined through dimensional analysis of failure slice. According to static boundary conditions of the slice, stress state of any point in the slice can be obtained. Then stress state of any point in the secondary slip band can also be established. The failure of the secondary slip band is judged on the basis of Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. Therefore, a mechanical method is proposed to analyze the progressive failure of debris landslide with two slip bands. 相似文献
11.
地下水位预测对滑坡稳定性分析具有重要意义,三峡库区库岸滑坡地下水位时间序列在季节性强降雨和周期性库水位涨落等诸多因素影响下呈现混沌特征。在对地下水位序列进行相空间重构的基础上,采用饱和关联维数法和最大Lyapunov指数法对其混沌特征进行验证。再用预测性能优秀的最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型对其进行预测,并用粒子群算法优化选取LSSVM模型的参数,以克服LSSVM模型参数选取困难的缺点。以三峡库区三舟溪滑坡前缘STK-1水文孔日平均地下水位序列为例进行了混沌分析,分别运用粒子群优化的LSSVM模型(PSO-LSSVM)和BP神经网络模型对STK-1水文孔地下水位进行了预测。结果表明库岸滑坡地下水位序列存在混沌特征,PSO-LSSVM模型预测结果的均方根误差为0.193m,拟合优度为0.815,说明预测效果较理想,且PSO-LSSVM模型预测精度高于BP网络模型,具有较强的实用性。 相似文献
12.
滑坡是水库库区主要地质灾害类型之一,开展水库滑坡成因机制研究具有重要理论意义和工程应用价值.利用WebofScience(WoS)数据库和VOSviewer文献计量工具对1999-2018年已发表的969篇以水库滑坡为主题的相关论文进行研究趋势分析.文献计量分析表明三峡库区滑坡稳定性和变形研究是未来水库滑坡成因机制研究主要趋势.从库水对滑坡的宏观力学作用方式、库水作用下岩土体渗流应力耦合机理和库水对岩土体劣化作用过程等方面,对国内外水库滑坡成因机制研究的主要成果与进展进行了综述.综合现有的研究成果指出水库滑坡在精细化地质建模、岩土体多场耦合特征参数获取和岸坡长期演化评价等方面尚存在不足.基于上述问题,提出水库滑坡成因机制研究应以多场信息监测为重要手段,立足多学科交叉,采用大数据融合与挖掘和人工智能技术等解决水库滑坡长期演化趋势难题.考虑水库滑坡所处地质环境的复杂性,建议未来应在水库滑坡立体精细地质建模、多场关联监测、地质结构多场多尺度演变过程、基于监测数据大数据分析的滑坡预警阈值确定和原位试验综合平台构建等方面进一步深入研究. 相似文献
13.
Relationships between landslide types and topographic attributes in a loess catchment, China 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Topographic attributes have been identified as the most important factor in controlling the initiation and distribution of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall.As a result,these landslides influence the evolution of local surface topography.In this research,an area of 2.6 km 2 loess catchment in the Huachi County was selected as the study area locating in the Chinese Loess Plateau.The landslides inventory and landslide types were mapped using global position system(GPS) and field mapping.The landslide inventory shows that these shallow landslides involve different movement types including slide,creep and fall.Meanwhile,main topographic attributes were generated based on a high resolution digital terrain model(5 m × 5 m),including aspect,slope shape,elevation,slope angle and contributing area.These maps were overlaid with the spatial distributions of total landslides and each type of landslides in a geographic information system(GIS),respectively,to assess their spatial frequency distributions and relative failure potentials related to these selected topographic attributes.The spatial analysis results revealed that there is a close relation between the topographic attributes of the postlandsliding local surface and the types of landslide movement.Meanwhile,the types of landslide movement have some obvious differences in local topographic attributes,which can influence the relative failure potential of different types of landslides.These results have practical significance to mitigate natural hazard and understandgeomorphologic process in thick loess area. 相似文献
14.
High-speed landslide is a catastrophic geological disaster in the mountainous area of southwest China. To predict the movement process of landslide reactivation in Chenjiaba town, Beichuan county, Sichuan province, China, we simulated the movement process of two landslide failures in Chenjiaba via rapid mass movement simulation and unmanned aerial vehicle images(UAV), and obtained the movement characteristic parameters of the landslides. According to a back analysis, the most remarkable fitting rheological parameters were friction coefficient(μ=0.18) and turbulence(). The parameter of landslide pressure was applied as the zoning index of landslide hazard to obtain the influence zone and hazard zoning map of the Chenjiaba landslide. Results show that the Duba River was blocked quickly with a landslide accumulation at the maximum height of 44.14 mwhen the Chenjiaba deposits lost stability. The hazard zoning map indicated that the landslide hazard degree is positively correlated with the slope.This landslide assessment is a quantitative hazard assessment method based on a landslide movement process and is suitable for high-speed landslide. Such method can provide a scientific basis for urban construction and planning in the landslide hazard area to avoid hazards effectively. 相似文献
15.
Landslide hazard zonation mapping at regional level of a large area provides a broad trend of landslide potential zones. A macro level landslide hazard zonation for a small area may provide a better insight into the landslide hazards. The main objective of the present work was to carry out macro landslide hazard zonation mapping on 1：50,000 scale in an area where regional level zonation mapping was conducted earlier. In the previous work the regional landslide hazard zonation maps of Srinagar- Rudraprayag area of Garhwal Himalaya in the state of Uttarakhand were prepared using subjective and objective approaches. In the present work the landslide hazard zonation mapping at macro level was carried out in a small area using a Landslide Hazard Evaluation Factor rating scheme. The hazard zonation map produced by using this technique classifies the area into relative hazard classes in which the high hazard zones well correspond with high frequency of landslides. The results of this map when compared with the regional zonation maps prepared earlier show that application of the present technique identified more details of the hazard zones, which are broadly shown in the earlier zonation maps. 相似文献
16.
研究库水位波动和降雨影响下滑坡的位移变形特征并分析其破坏机制，对了解三峡库区滑坡的演化过程具有重要意义。以奉节曾家棚滑坡为例，基于GPS地表监测位移分析了滑坡在不同特征库水位运行阶段的变化规律，结合灰色关联度模型确定了滑坡不同部位的变形在不同阶段的主要控制因素，借助GEO-Studio软件模拟了曾家棚滑坡在历史降雨和库水位波动耦合作用下的稳定性变化，并与定量分析结果进行了交叉检验。结果表明:曾家棚滑坡的运动状态随时间变化，从缓慢蠕变状态进入阶跃变形状态。平面上，中东部坡体与西部坡体相比，运动更加强烈；剖面上，前缘变形早且变形量大。曾家棚滑坡变形失稳过程为初期蓄水启动了曾家棚古滑坡，前缘首先发生变形；降雨作为中后期主控因素，和库水位波动联合作用共同诱发了滑坡多次阶跃变形，使滑坡前中后部形成贯通裂缝；最终由二十年一遇的暴雨诱发滑坡发生整体破坏。 相似文献
17.
《山地科学学报》2015,(1)
The "4.20" Lushan earthquake in Sichuan province, China has induced a large amount of geological hazards and produced abundant loose materials which are prone to post-earthquake rainfalltriggered landslides. A detailed landslide inventory was acquired through post-earthquake emergent field investigation and high resolution remote sensing interpretation. The rainfall analysis was conducted using historical rainfall records during the period from 1951 to 2010. Results indicate that the average annual rainfall distribution is heterogeneous and the largest average annual rainfall occurs in Yucheng district. The Stability Index MAPping(SINMAP)model was adopted to assess and analyze the postearthquake slope stability under different rainfall scenarios(light rainfall, moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorm). The model parameters were calibrated to reflect the significant influence of strong earthquakes on geological settings. The slope stability maps triggered by different rainfall scenarios wereproduced at a regional scale. The effect of different rainfall conditions on the slope stability is discussed.The expanding trend of the unstable area was quantitatively assessed with the different critical rainfall intensity. They provide a new insight into the spatial distribution and characteristics of postearthquake rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lushan seismic area. An increase of rainfall intensity results in a significant increase of unstable area. The heterogeneous distribution of slope instability is strongly correlated with the distribution of earthquake intensity in spite of different rainfall conditions. The results suggest that the both seismic intensity and rainfall are two crucial factors for postearthquake slope stability. This study provides important references for landslide prevention and mitigation in the Lushan area after earthquake. 相似文献
18.
由于具有类似的工程地质和水文地质条件, 在高度相关的降雨作用下, 同一个区域中的降雨诱发浅层斜坡失稳灾害常成群出现。在区域尺度预测浅层斜坡失稳灾害对滑坡灾害的防灾减灾工作具有重要的意义。为此, 提出了一种基于力学原理的降雨诱发浅层斜坡失稳灾害预测新模型RARIL。该模型采用修正Green-Ampt模型进行降雨入渗分析, 采用无限体边坡模型进行安全系数计算, 利用可靠度原理考虑区域斜坡稳定性分析中的参数不确定性。该模型具有可考虑降雨诱发浅层斜坡的失稳力学机理、可考虑区域内斜坡土体参数不确定性, 以及计算效率高、易于在GIS平台上实现等优点。案例分析表明, RARIL模型较为准确地预测了2010年8月12日11∶00至2010年8月14日9∶00期间强降雨在四川省汶川县映秀镇附近的303省道K0-K20段沿线区域引发的滑坡灾害, 研究结果证明RARIL模型在预测降雨诱发区域斜坡失稳灾害方面有很好的应用前景。 相似文献
19.
滑坡是最常见的一种地质灾害,其主要诱因是降雨。滑坡灾害多发生在雨量充沛地域或洪水季节。南京市受自然环境和地质环境的影响,滑坡是其最主要的地质灾害类型之一,为了有效地预测滑坡的发生情况并最大限度地减少滑坡灾害为南京带来的损失,本文在已有的南京市地质灾害易发区等研究的成果上,结合南京市历史滑坡数据、气象资料和地质灾害预测数学模型构建了南京市滑坡灾害预测方法并确定了南京市滑坡灾害预测预报技术流程。在该预测方法和技术流程的基础上,本文同时应用了数据库技术、ArcGIS Server技术、AJAX远程调用技术、网页局部刷新技术和地图缓存技术等,融合地理信息系统功能与滑坡灾害预测预报业务功能,开发了南京市滑坡灾害预测预报信息共享平台。该平台可以对滑坡灾害基础数据和实时气象数据动态、科学地管理,结合南京市实时降雨数据可实现滑坡灾害预测预报并将灾害信息实时在线发布,同时提供对滑坡灾害信息的查询、检索、统计分析等功能,最终通过该信息共享平台,为南京市滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供决策支持,为其他需要建立滑坡灾害预测信息共享平台的城市提供参考。 相似文献
20.
《山地科学学报》2020,(3)
This work was to generate landslide susceptibility maps for the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR) area, China by using different machine learning models. Three advanced machine learning methods, namely, gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT), random forest(RF) and information value(InV) models, were used, and the performances were assessed and compared. In total, 202 landslides were mapped by using a series of field surveys, aerial photographs, and reviews of historical and bibliographical data. Nine causative factors were then considered in landslide susceptibility map generation by using the GBDT, RF and InV models. All of the maps of the causative factors were resampled to a resolution of 28.5 m. Of the 486289 pixels in the area,28526 pixels were landslide pixels, and 457763 pixels were non-landslide pixels. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were generated by using the three machine learning models, and their performances were assessed through receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves, the sensitivity, specificity,overall accuracy(OA), and kappa coefficient(KAPPA). The results showed that the GBDT, RF and In V models in overall produced reasonable accurate landslide susceptibility maps. Among these three methods, the GBDT method outperforms the other two machine learning methods, which can provide strong technical support for producing landslide susceptibility maps in TGR. 相似文献