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黄河数字流域模型是“数字黄河”的重要组成部分,在数字流域模型框架下,以坡面为基本单元,建立了包括植被截留、融雪、地表蓄滞、表层土蓄滞、中层土蓄滞和深层土蓄滞共6层的产流模型.模型在垂向上考虑3层出流:地表超渗产流、表层土侧向渗流和中层土侧向渗流,既反映当前的降水过程,又体现前期降水过程和土壤前期含水量的影响,比较适合黄河流域的产流特点.在坡面产流的基础上,还给出了坡面单元侵蚀产沙公式,用于建立流域产沙数学模型.应用建立的模型,给出了3个计算实例:黄河全流域水量计算、小花区间汛期洪水模拟和多沙粗沙区产沙计算.实践表明:建立的模型基本具备了在黄河全流域进行降雨-径流模拟、侵蚀产沙计算的功能,辅以降雨预报模块则可进行洪水预报. 相似文献
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利用田间人工模拟降雨试验,研究了前期土壤含水量对两种红壤坡面降雨入渗、产流和产沙特性的影响.结果表明:前期含水量越高,两种土壤都是产流越快,达到稳定径流和入渗的时间越短.低含水量区(干态和稍干),两种土壤的径流系数和入渗率都与降雨时间呈线性关系,并在60 min内达不到稳定.高含水量区(稍湿和湿态),两种土壤的径流系数、入渗率及产沙速率与降雨时间关系都符合Boltzmann(玻耳兹曼)方程;第四纪红粘土发育的红壤稍干态和红砂岩发育的红壤干态下的产沙速率在整个降雨过程中变化不明显,并都维持在较低水平;第四纪红粘土发育的红壤干态和红砂岩发育的红壤稍干态下的产沙速率随着模拟降雨的进行而大致以线性关系增大.土壤前期含水量越高,两种土壤坡地累tk积入渗量都越小,雨水转化为土壤水分的比率亦越小. 相似文献
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降水空间不均匀性对径流过程模拟的影响 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
应用数字高程流域水系模型，通过子流域和网格2种空间离散方式，采用传统的子流域法、雨量插值子流域法、逐个网格法3种雨量数据输入处理方法，分别作日流量模拟与洪水过程模拟，模拟过程与实测水文过程相比较表明：日模中3种雨量处理方法计算精度相当，次模中逐个网格法优于传统子流域法和雨量插值子流域法；降雨空间分布不均匀性考虑得越充分，水文过程模拟精度越高。 相似文献
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针对现有分布式单位线汇流理论未考虑土壤含水量变化引起的时变汇流路径问题,提出动态汇流路径新概念,推求同时考虑降雨强度和土壤含水量时空分布的坡面流速计算公式,引入地形指数刻画流域蓄水能力空间分布,从而获得栅格尺度流域流速分布场,进一步建立不同蓄满状态下流域动态汇流路径集合,最终实现考虑动态汇流路径的时变分布式单位线推求。以龙虎圩和东石流域为实例,通过SCS模型计算产流量,采用本文所提方法进行汇流计算,引入涵盖低流量误差、高流量误差及洪量误差的多目标优化方法率定参数,2个典型流域28场洪水预报结果表明,洪峰流量相对误差在±15%内,峰现时间误差在±6 h之间,纳什效率系数平均值超过0.8,与现有方法相比,所提方法能更加准确地反映汇流时间分布场,提高了洪水预报精度。 相似文献
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华北山区坡地土壤水分动态实验研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
在北京市怀柔区汤河口镇东台沟坡地径流实验小区上进行人工模拟降雨实验，探索降雨过程中体积土壤含水量和土壤水基质势的动态变化。结果表明：在降雨强度和前期土壤含水量较为稳定以及蒸发微弱等条件下，不同场次降雨过程中土壤水分动态变化时间与降雨强度之间呈现明显的幂函数关系；同一场次降雨过程中，坡地内不同部位不同土壤层次的土壤水分动态变化时间与土壤层次和土层部位相联系。降雨过程中体积土壤含水量和土壤水基质势的动态变化可划分为5个阶段。得出的坡地土壤水特征曲线表明了坡地砂质土壤在含水量较大时土壤吸力较小、含水量减小时土壤吸力迅速增大的水力特性。 相似文献
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开都河流域山区径流模拟及降雨输入的不确定性分析 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
选取塔里木河源区的开都河流域为研究区,将流域内气象水文站点数据与遥感数据相结合,利用气象、土壤类型、土地利用和地表覆盖、数字高程(DEM)和降雨等资料,模拟流域水文过程,并在出山口实测径流数据的基础上对模型进行率定和验证;对降雨输入所带来的径流模拟不确定性进行分析,探讨降雨输入的空间异质性对水文预报结果的影响机制.结果表明:MIKE-SHE模型能在水文、气象站点稀少,土壤及水文地质数据缺乏的条件下,模拟开都河流域的日径流过程,但精度上仍有待提高;降雨输入的空间分布程度对径流模拟有重要影响.FY-2C遥感估算降雨资料能够更好地表达降雨时间的空间异质性,相应地对径流模拟精度也有一定程度的提高. 相似文献
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针对目前长期径流预报中物理成因考虑较少的问题,以丹江口水库为例,在分析影响径流物理背景的基础上,研究前期气象因子与水库秋汛期入库径流过程的相关关系,识别影响径流的大气环流与海温等物理因子,利用主成分分析法提取主要预报信息,建立了包含大气环流因子、海温因子等气象物理信息以及前期降雨、径流等水文信息作为预报因子集的三层BP神经网络预报模型.利用1956~2008年秋汛期9、10月入库径流量进行模拟与试报,并与仅采用前期降雨径流的预测模型进行了比较,结果显示基于物理成因分析的预测模型稳定性良好,模拟及试报精度较高,9、10月试报精度平均提高约30%,分别达到87.5%和75%,并对预报年份中的丰枯特征有较好的体现. 相似文献
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降雨时空尺度的变化对水文模型影响较大。本文从降水时间和空间两个尺度,结合水文模型方法,从静态和动态两个参数角度出发,以辽宁西部为研究实例,定量分析降雨时空尺度变化对辽宁西部地区水文模型的影响。结果表明:降雨时间尺度的静态变化直接影响洪水模拟精度,降雨空间尺度动态变化对洪水模拟影响程度较低。 相似文献
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Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches. 相似文献
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FLaIR and SUSHI: two mathematical models for early warning of landslides induced by rainfall 总被引：8，自引：7，他引：1
The development of Early Warning Systems in recent years has assumed an increasingly important role in landslide risk mitigation.
In this context, the main topic is the relationship between rainfall and the incidence of landslides. In this paper, we focus
our attention on the analysis of mathematical models capable of simulating triggering conditions. These fall into two broad
categories: hydrological models and complete models. Generally, hydrological models comprise simple empirical relationships
linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that
take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties,
local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In a review of the most important models proposed
in the technical and international literature, we have outlined their most meaningful and salient aspects. In particular,
the Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR) and the Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability
(SUSHI) models, developed by the authors, are discussed. FLaIR is a hydrological model based on the identification of a mobility
function dependent on landslide characteristics and antecedent rainfall, correlated to the probability of a slide occurring.
SUSHI is a complete model for describing hydraulic phenomena at slope scale, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, with particular
emphasis on spatial–temporal changes in subsoil pore pressure. It comprises a hydraulic module for analysing the circulation
of water from rainfall infiltration in saturated and nonsaturated layers in non-stationary conditions and a geotechnical slope
stability module based on Limit Equilibrium Methods. The paper also includes some examples of these models’ applications in
the framework of early warning systems in Italy. 相似文献
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考虑前期降雨过程的边坡稳定性分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
基于三峡库区实测降雨资料,研究了不同初始条件对不同土体边坡稳定性影响,建议了能够反映边坡含水状态的初始条件选取方法。在此基础上,采用非饱和渗流分析方法研究了前期降雨对不同土体边坡稳定性影响,以典型的砂土和黏土边坡为例初步探索了前期降雨对边坡稳定性影响规律。结果表明：初始条件对不同土体边坡稳定性影响不同;建议将多年平均降雨量对应的稳态渗流场作为初始条件进行非饱和渗流分析。边坡土体渗透系数越低,边坡稳定性受前期降雨的影响越大、影响时间也越长。砂土和黏土边坡稳定性分析时建议至少考虑15 d以上的前期降雨,对于砂土边坡还应根据这15 d前面5 d的降雨情况确定是否需要增加计算天数。短历时高强度前期降雨对砂土边坡稳定性影响更大,而长历时低强度前期降雨对黏土边坡稳定性影响更大。累积前期降雨量可以作为判断边坡最小安全系数出现时刻的依据。砂土边坡出现最小安全系数时刻与10 d累积前期降雨量最大的时刻较为吻合,而黏土边坡则与15 d累积前期降雨量最大的时刻较为吻合。 相似文献
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根据流域降雨径流的基本过程,以蓄满产流理论为基础,建立了一个网格型松散结构的分布式流域水文模型。模型将流域离散为包含河道与不包含河道两种类型的单元格,以协克里金方法插值得到空间离散的降雨输入,考虑的产汇流物理过程包括降雨、植被截留及蒸散发、单元格产流、单元格汇流及河网汇流。模型结构简单,参数较少,在充分利用植被覆盖类型图及土地利用类型图的基础上,能够获得大部分参数的选用值。通过在长江三峡区间沿渡河流域的实际应用,模型计算成果令人满意。 相似文献
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含水率对滑带土强度及变形影响试验研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
为了研究含水率对滑带土强度及变形特性的影响,选取某大型滑坡滑带土进行不同初始饱和度的常规三轴固结排水（气）剪切试验,采用了一种新型气水转换的外体变测试装置来研究非饱和土体变。研究成果表明,含水率对滑带土强度有很大的影响,初始饱和度越高,强度值越低,凝聚力c与饱和度呈阶梯状陡降关系,内摩擦角? 可以与初始饱和度建立线性关系式;含水率越高,土样体变越小,Duncan-Chang模型参数K、Kb、G受含水率影响较大,与初始饱和度呈线性变化关系;n、m、F、Rf、D受含水率的影响较小,不同初始饱和度下的参数值相差不大,可取平均值作为不同饱和度下的模型参数。 相似文献
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为实现中小流域降雨径流过程精细化模拟, 合理估算水文模型参数的空间分布具有重要意义。基于新版全球数字土壤制图系统(SoilGrids)构建栅格新安江模型(GXM)参数化方案, 对陕西省陈河流域2003—2012年16场洪水进行模拟, 与新安江模型计算结果进行对比, 开展基于洪水过程划分的自由水蓄水容量敏感性及空间分布特征量化分析。结果表明: GXM模拟的峰现时间误差水平降低约0.31 h, 洪峰和洪量模拟精度较高, 模型能够对土壤水饱和度等水文要素的动态空间分布进行较合理的模拟; 自由水蓄水容量参数对洪峰和涨洪过程的确定性系数以及涨洪段的洪量相对误差影响较大, 对退水过程影响小; 自由水蓄水容量在陈河流域河谷和山脊附近较大, 坡段中部较小。 相似文献
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Péter Hegedüs Szabolcs Czigány László Balatonyi Ervin Pirkhoffer 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(1):97-111
Flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards of today. Due to the complexity of flash flood triggering factors, to prevent or mitigate flood triggered losses, numeric model based flood forecasting models are capable tools to predict stream water levels. The main goal of the current research was to reproduce two flow peaks with the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model and test the model sensitivity for various input parameters. To obtain sufficient input data, we monitored soil depth, maximum infiltration rate, soil moisture content, rainfall, time of concentration and flow. To obtain input data, parameters were calculated, measured in the Sás Valley experimental watershed (SW Hungary) or optimized with the built in function of the HEC-HMS. Soil moisture was monitored in the 1.7 km2 pilot catchment over the period between September 2008 and September 2009. HEC-HMS had a good performance reproducing the two events, however simulated flow time series are highly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture, infiltration rate and canopy storage. Outflow modeled data were verified for two flood events (June 4, 2008 and July 9, 2009). The HEC-HMS was over-sensitive for input soil moisture and with increasing input rainfall and increasing outflow, larger simulation errors were observed. 相似文献
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Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches. 相似文献
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Rainfall-induced landslides are a significant hazard in many areas of loess-covered terrain in Northwest China. To investigate the response of a loess landslide to rainfall, a series of artificial rainfall experiments were conducted on a natural loess slope, located in the Bailong River Basin, in southern Gansu Province. The slope was instrumented to measure surface runoff, pore water pressure, soil water content, earth pressure, displacement, and rainfall. The hydrological response was also characterized by time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography. The results show that most of the rainfall infiltrated into the loess landslide, and that the pore water pressure and water content responded rapidly to simulated rainfall events. This indicates that rainfall infiltration on the loess landslide was significantly affected by preferential flow through fissures and macropores. Different patterns of pore water pressure and water content variations were determined by the antecedent soil moisture conditions, and by the balance between water recharge and drainage in the corresponding sections. We observed three stages of changing pore water pressure and displacement within the loess landslide during the artificial rainfall events: Increases in pore water pressure initiated movement on the slope, acceleration in movement resulting in a rapid decrease in pore water pressure, and attainment of a steady state. We infer that a negative pore water pressure feedback process may have occurred in response to shear-induced dilation of material as the slope movement accelerated. The process of shear dilatant strengthening may explain the phenomenon of semi-continuous movement of the loess landslide. Shear dilatant strengthening, caused by intermittent or continuous rainfall over long periods, can occur without triggering rapid slope failure. 相似文献