首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Catastrophic volcanic debris avalanches reshape volcanic edifices with up to half of pre-collapse cone volumes being removed. Deposition from this debris avalanche deposit often fills and inundates the surrounding landscape and may permanently change the distribution of drainage networks. On the weakly-incised Mt. Taranaki ring-plain, volcanic debris avalanche deposits typically form a large, wedge shape (in plan view), over all flat-lying fans. Following volcanic debris avalanches a period of intense re-sedimentation commonly begins on ring-plain areas, particularly in wet or temperate climates. This is exacerbated by large areas of denuded landscape, ongoing instability in the scarp/source region, damming of river/stream systems, and in some cases inherent instability of the volcanic debris avalanche deposits. In addition, on Mt. Taranaki, the collapse of a segment of the cone by volcanic debris avalanche often generates long periods of renewed volcanism, generating large volumes of juvenile tephra onto unstable and unvegetated slopes, or construction of new domes with associated rock falls and block-and-ash flows. The distal ring-plain impact from these post-debris avalanche conditions and processes is primarily accumulation of long run-out debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow deposits with a variety of lithologies and sedimentary character. Common to these post-debris avalanche units is evidence for high-water-content flows that are typically non-cohesive. Hence sedimentary variations in these units are high in lateral and longitudinal exposure in relation to local topography. The post-collapse deposits flank large-scale fans and hence similar lithological and chronological sequences can form on widely disparate sectors of the ring plain. These deposits on Mt. Taranaki provide a record of landscape response and ring-plain evolution in three stages that divide the currently identified Warea Formation: 1) the deposition of broad fans of material adjacent to the debris avalanche unit; 2) channel formation and erosion of Stage 1 deposits, primarily at the contact between debris avalanche deposits and the Stage 1 deposits and the refilling of these channels; and 3) the development of broad tabular sheet flows on top of the debris avalanche, leaving sediments between debris avalanche mounds. After a volcanic debris avalanche, these processes represent an ever changing and evolving hazard-scape with hazard maps needing to be regularly updated to take account of which stage the sedimentary system is in.  相似文献   

2.
The long-term behaviour of andesite stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth phases followed by collapse. This cyclic pattern represents a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes worldwide. Around the > 130 ka Mt. Taranaki (Egmont volcano), New Zealand, coastal–cliff successions at 20–40 km distance comprise repeating packages of lithologically and sedimentologically distinctive mass-flow deposits. Varying depositional mechanisms and source properties of these units record growth and collapse cycles of the central edifice. These are used to construct a model for cyclic volcaniclastic sedimentation in the surrounds of stratovolcanoes. During edifice-construction phases, thick packages of tabular, predominantly monolithologic, hyperconcentrated-flow and debris-flow deposits accumulate with intercalated tephra beds. The mass-flow units commonly contain large proportions of fresh pumice or juvenile-lithic andesite. Intervals of quiescence separating eruptive periods are characterised by landscape re-adjustment, accompanied by deposition of fluvial and aeolian sediments, along with steady accretion of medial ash. In contrast, brief episodes of destruction are marked by wide-spread, distinctively clay-rich, polylithologic debris-avalanche deposits and related marginal debris flow units. The growth stages can be terminated by an eruption-triggered sector collapse, or by external forces once the edifice exceeds a critical stable height or profile (dependent on eruptive style and local geo-tectonic conditions). Once the edifice becomes metastable, regional tectonic earthquakes or shallow-level intrusion events are likely triggers for collapse. Although the resulting debris avalanches represent the greatest individual hazard from such andesite stratovolcanoes, their frequency is relatively low compared with other types of mass-flows generated during edifice-growth phases. Accurate forecasts of future hazard from mass-flow events are therefore dependent on recognition of both the frequency of a stratovolcano's growth cycle and its current position in that cycle.  相似文献   

3.
The >25 ka volcaniclastic ring-plain succession in south-west Taranaki has been remapped to establish a much more detailed understanding of the older stratigraphic record of Mt. Taranaki. Coastal cliff exposures show a range of volcaniclastic lithofacies, including debris-avalanche and lahar deposits, and allow a detailed chronological reconstruction of past volcanic and sedimentary events. Five new debris-avalanche deposits were identified, and their distribution in coastal cross-sections mapped. In addition, four previously described units were renamed and their stratigraphic position and lateral extent redefined. Chronostratigraphic control of the younger (<50 ka) sequence was obtained by radiocarbon dating of wood found within, or peat interbedded with, the deposits. Emplacement ages of the older units were estimated from their stratigraphic position and underlying marine wave-cut surfaces. Overall, at least 14 widespread debris-avalanche deposits occur within the <200 ka ring-plain record of Mt. Taranaki, suggesting one major edifice failure on average every 14,000 years, with an increase in frequency since 40 ka. The stratigraphic reconstruction of the ring-plain succession showed that the same pattern of deposition was repeatedly produced throughout the existence of Mt. Taranaki. Depending on their sedimentological characteristics, the different volcanic and sedimentary lithofacies can be related to phases of edifice-construction or collapse events. Based on the identified cyclic sedimentation pattern, we present a new episodic stratigraphy that integrates existing and new lithostratigraphic units into a coherent chronostratigraphic framework that can be applied to the entire volcanic and volcaniclastic succession at Mt. Taranaki. This model takes into account the complex geological processes that have taken place on the volcano and provides a more uniform stratigraphic terminology that could be applied to repeatedly collapsing stratovolcanoes elsewhere.  相似文献   

4.
Merapi is Indonesia's most dangerous volcano with a history of deadly eruptions. Over the past two centuries, the volcanic activity has been dominated by prolonged periods of lava dome growth and intermittent gravitational or explosive dome failures to produce pyroclastic flows every few years. Explosive eruptions, such as in 2010, have occurred occasionally during this period, but were more common in pre‐historical time, during which a collapse of the western sector of the volcano occurred at least once. Variations in magma supply from depth, magma ascent rates and the degassing behaviour during ascent are thought to be important factors that control whether Merapi erupts effusively or explosively. A combination of sub‐surface processes operating at relatively shallow depth inside the volcano, including complex conduit processes and the release of carbon dioxide into the magmatic system through assimilation of carbonate crustal rocks, may result in unpredictable explosive behaviour during periods of dome growth. Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational or explosive lava dome collapses and subsequent lahars remain the most likely immediate hazards near the volcano, although the possibility of more violent eruptions that affect areas farther away from the volcano cannot be fully discounted. In order to improve hazard assessment during future volcanic crises at Merapi, we consider it crucial to improve our understanding of the processes operating in the volcano's plumbing system and their surface manifestations, to generate accurate hazard zonation maps that make use of numerical mass flow models on a realistic digital terrain model, and to utilize probabilistic information on eruption recurrence and inundation areas.  相似文献   

5.
When characterizing geologic natural hazards, specifically granular flows including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches and debris flows, perhaps the most important factor to consider is the area of inundation. One of the key parameters demarcating the leading edge of inundation is the run-out distance. To define the run-out distance, it is necessary to know when the flow stops. Numerical experiments are presented for determining a stopping criterion and exploring the suitability of the Savage-Hutter theory for computing inundation areas of granular flows. The stopping criterion is a function of dimensionless average velocity, pile aspect ratio and internal and bed friction angle and can be implemented on either a global (entire flow) or local (small areas of the flow) level. Slumping piles on a horizontal surface, and geophysical flows over complex topography were simulated. Mountainous areas, such as Colima volcano, Mexico; Casita, Nicaragua; Little Tahoma Peak, USA, and the San Bernardino Mountains, USA, were used as test regions. These areas have combinations of steep, open slopes and sinuous channels. Because of differences in topography and physical scaling, slumping piles in the laboratory and geophysical flows in natural terrain must be scaled differently to determine a reasonable dimensionless relationship for the stopping criterion.  相似文献   

6.
The catastrophic events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno (Southern Italy) highlight the destructive potential of debris flows, even when they are of relatively low magnitude. More than 130 people were killed and severe property damage took place when volcaniclastic debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall inundated various towns located in piedmont areas. This work investigates the suitability of LAHARZ, a GIS-assisted method for the automatic delineation of lahar inundation areas, for reproducing the May 1998 flows at Sarno. It was found that recalibration of the empirical relationship employed by LAHARZ is required in order to realistically hind-cast the inundation areas of considered events. The potential for further improvements in prediction outputs for this type of geomorphic setting is discussed, taking into account the observed lower mobility of these small volcaniclastic debris flows as compared to lahars of similar size.  相似文献   

7.
Statistical analyses of landslide deposits from similar areas provide information on dynamics and rheology, and are the basis for empirical relationships for the prediction of future events. In Central America landslides represent an important threat in both volcanic and non-volcanic areas. Data, mainly from 348 landslides in Nicaragua, and 19 in other Central American countries have been analyzed to describe landslide characteristics and to search for possible correlations and empirical relationships. The mobility of a landslide, expressed as the ratio between height of fall (H) and run-out distance (L) as a function of the volume and height of fall; and the relationship between the height of fall and run-out distance were studied for rock falls, slides, debris flows and debris avalanches. The data show differences in run-out distance and landslide mobility among different types of landslides and between debris flows in volcanic and non-volcanic areas. The new Central American data add to and seem consistent with data published from other regions. Studies combining field observations and empirical relationships with laboratory studies and numerical simulations will help in the development of more reliable empirical equations for the prediction of landslide run-out, with applications to hazard zonation and design of optimal risk mitigation measures.  相似文献   

8.
The mobility of gravity-driven granular flows such as debris flows or pyroclastic density currents are extremely sensitive to topographic changes, such as break in slopes, obstacles, or ravine deviations. In hazard assessment, computer codes can reproduce past events and evaluate hazard zonation based on inundation limits of simulated flows over a natural terrain. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a common input for the simulation algorithm and its accuracy to reproduce past flows is crucial. In this work, we use TITAN2D code to reproduce past block-and-ash flows at Colima volcano (Mexico) over DEMs with different cell size (5, 10, 30, 50, and 90 m) in order to illustrate the influences of the resolution on the numeric simulations. Our results show that topographic resolution significantly affects the flow path and runout. Also, we found that simulations of past flows with the same input parameters (such as the basal friction angle) over topography with different resolutions resulted in different flow paths, areas, and thickness of the simulated flows. In particular, the simulations performed with the 5- and 10-m DEMs produced similar results. Also, we obtained consistent simulation results for the 30- and 50-m DEMs. However, for the coarser 90-m DEM results are largely different and inaccurate. We recommend generating a benchmark table in order to acquire characteristic values for the basal friction angle of studied events. In case of rugged topographies, a DEM with high resolution should be used for more confident results.  相似文献   

9.
The San Martín shield volcano, located in the Los Tuxtlas Volcanic Field, has experienced effusive shield-building activity, as well as explosive eruptions, as evidenced by direct observations during the last eruption in 1793. The threat to the surrounding villages consists principally of lahars, especially because of the tropical climate in the region. Ash fallout and lava flows represent additional hazards. In addition, the surrounding Quaternary monogenetic field includes more than 300 scoria cones and about 40 explosion craters (mainly maars) that also represent a hazard source. In the present study we constructed hazard maps using field data, orthophotos, spatial analysis, and specialized software (LAHARZ and HAZMAP) to deliminate lahar inundation zones, areas that could potentially be affected by ash fallout (including the evaluation of houses prone to roof collapse due to ash load), and the most susceptible areas for hosting future monogenetic vent formation.  相似文献   

10.
Kolumbo submarine volcano, located NE of Santorini caldera in the Aegean Sea, has only had one recorded eruption during historic times (1650 AD). Tsunamis from this event severely impacted the east coast of Santorini with extensive flooding and loss of buildings. Recent seismic studies in the area indicate a highly active region beneath Kolumbo suggesting the potential for future eruptive activity. Multibeam mapping and remotely operated vehicle explorations of Kolumbo have led to new insights into the eruptive processes of the 1650 AD eruption and improved assessments of the mechanisms by which tsunamis were generated and how they may be produced in future events. Principal mechanisms for tsunami generation at Kolumbo include shallow submarine explosions, entrance of pyroclastic flows into the sea, collapse of rapidly accumulated pyroclastic material, and intense eruption-related seismicity that may trigger submarine slope collapse. Compared with Santorini, the magnitude of explosive eruptions from Kolumbo is likely to be much smaller but the proximity of the volcano to the eastern coast of Santorini presents significant risks even for lower magnitude events.  相似文献   

11.
A catastrophic landslide dam breach induced debris flow initiated in Da-Cu-Keng stream, Ruifang town, when typhoon Xangsane hit Taiwan on November 1, 2000. Different available methodologies were used to model the natural dam breach induced debris flow and using field topography the hazard zones affected by debris mixtures were delineated. The numerical finite element or finite difference method is time consuming for the simulation of debris flow inundation areas and hence a rules-based GIS (Geographic Information System) analysis is proposed in this study. The model emphasizes the downstream inundated fan-shaped areas covered by debris mixtures through the overflow point. Topography and gradient are assumed to dominate the debris masses deposition mechanism in the GIS analysis. The approach considers the parameters effects, such as the runout distance, the debris masses magnitude and the inundated areas. The results of this study reveal that the GIS process using the rule-based approach speeds up the processing of delineating the hazard zones and assessment, which can be applied to early-warning and preliminary inundation hazardous mapping.  相似文献   

12.
Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

13.
Flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows are of concern regarding land use planning and management. A simple model for the prediction of mentioned characteristics has been developed, incorporating a friction–collision rheological model. It demonstrated to be able to satisfactorily simulate the two-dimensional behavior of laboratory results and the one-dimensional behavior of two real debris-flow events. The numerical results show that the topography of the channel bed, the yield stress level of the debris flows, and the inflow pattern have significant influence on the simulated flow motion and deposition characteristics of debris flows. In addition, the predicted run-out distance has been compared with analytical solutions and field observations. The model could be employed for the preliminary evaluation of one-dimensional run-out distance of granular debris flows provided that the volume of the debris involved in the initial mobilization is assumed.  相似文献   

14.
Assessments of the probability and the consequences of future volcanic activity can be critical aspects when evaluating the safety of the population and of industrial plants. A new methodology has been developed for the probabilistic modelling of volcanic hazards based on regional volcanic data that facilitates the production of probabilistic hazard maps for various volcanic scenarios (lava flows, tephra). The stochastic model is based on Cox processes and allows account to be taken of the observed temporal and spatial correlation inherent in volcanic eruptions. The model is applied to the Quaternary field of the Osteifel region where the forecast number of future eruptions and the probabilities related to the different scenarios are estimated using a Monte Carlo approach. The obtained hazard maps of future volcanic events are part of a comprehensive hazard analysis and serve as a major input for the risk analysis that will determine the consequences of forecast volcanic activity at the site.  相似文献   

15.
The past history of recurrent flank collapses of la Soufrière volcano of Guadeloupe, its structure, its well-developed hydrothermal system and the current activity constitute factors that could promote a future flank collapse, particularly in the case of a significant increase of activity, with or without shallow magmatic input. To address the hazards associated with such a collapse, we model the emplacement of the debris avalanche generated by a flank-collapse event in 1,250 BC (3,100 years B.P.). We use a finite-difference grain-flow model solving mass and momentum conservation equations that are depth-averaged over the slide thickness, and a Coulomb-type friction law with a variable basal (minimum) friction angle. Using the parameter values determined from this simulation, we then simulate the debris avalanche which could be generated by a potential collapse of the present lava dome. We then discuss the region which could be affected by such a future collapse, and additional associated hazards of concern.  相似文献   

16.
Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure.  相似文献   

17.
A dramatic increase in debris flows occurred in the years after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in SW China due to the deposition of loose co-seismic landslide material. This paper proposes a preliminary integrated model, which describes the relationship between rain input and debris flow run-out in order to establish critical rain thresholds for mobilizing enough debris volume to reach the basin outlet. The model integrates in a simple way rainfall, surface runoff, and concentrated erosion of the loose material deposited in channels, propagation, and deposition of flow material. The model could be calibrated on total volumes of debris flow materials deposited at the outlet of the Shuida catchment during two successive rain events which occurred in August 2011. The calibrated model was used to construct critical rainfall intensity-duration graphs defining thresholds for a run-out distance until the outlet of the catchment. Model simulations show that threshold values increase after successive rain events due to a decrease in erodible material. The constructed rainfall intensity-duration threshold graphs for the Shuida catchment based on the current situation appeared to have basically the same exponential value as a threshold graph for debris flow occurrences, constructed for the Wenjia catchment on the basis of 5 observed triggering rain events. This may indicate that the triggering mechanism by intensive run-off erosion in channels in this catchment is the same. The model did not account for a supply of extra loose material by landslips transforming into debris flow or reaching the channels for transportation by run-off. In August 2012, two severe rain events were measured in the Shuida catchment, which did not produce debris flows. This could be confirmed by the threshold diagram constructed by the model.  相似文献   

18.
基于GIS泥石流二维数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
为了模拟泥石流的运动规律,预测降雨诱发的泥石流到达距离和泛滥范围,减少和避免泥石流引起的灾害,给出了一个模拟泥石流运动的二维数值模型。由于GIS中的栅格网络数据可以直接作为有限差分的网格,二维数值模型可用有限差分来求解。模型应用于2003年7月20日发生在日本九州南部熊本县水俣市宝川区集村的泥石流。模拟再现了这个真实泥石流的传播和泛滥的过程,并与实际检测结果很吻合,验证了这个深度积分的二维数值模型的有效性和实用性。模型可用于预测泥石流的流动距离和泛滥范围,以及泛滥范围内的危险房屋和路段,也可以用于泥石流灾害的风险性分析。  相似文献   

19.
  相似文献   

20.
Deterministic analysis of local tsunami generated by subduction zone earthquakes demonstrates the potential for extensive inundation and building damage in Napier, New Zealand. We present the first high-resolution assessments of tsunami inundation in Napier based on full simulation from tsunami generation to inundation and demonstrate the potential variability of onshore impacts due to local earthquakes. In the most extreme scenario, rupture of the whole Hikurangi subduction margin, maximum onshore flow depth exceeds 8.0 m within 200 m of the shore and exceeds 5.0 m in the city centre, with high potential for major damage to buildings. Inundation due to single-segment or splay fault rupture is relatively limited despite the magnitudes of MW 7.8 and greater. There is approximately 30 min available for evacuation of the inundation zone following a local rupture, and inundation could reach a maximum extent of 4 km. The central city is inundated by up to three waves, and Napier Port could be inundated repeatedly for 12 h. These new data on potential flow depth, arrival time and flow kinematics provide valuable information for tsunami education, exposure analysis and evacuation planning.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号