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1.
The post-earthquake debris flows in the Wenjia Gully led to the exposure of the shortcomings in the design of the original conventional debris flow mitigation system. A predicament for the Wenjia mitigation system is a large amount of loose material (est. 50 × 106 m3) that has been deposited in the gully by the co-seismic landslide, providing abundant source material for debris flows under saturation. A novel design solution for the replacement mitigation system was proposed and constructed, and has exhibited excellent performance and resilience in subsequent debris flows. The design was governed by the three-phase philosophy of controlling water, sediment, and erosion. An Early Warning System (EWS) for debris flow that uses real-time field data was developed; it issues alerts based on the probabilistic and empirical correlations between rainfall and debris flows. This two-fold solution reduces energy of the debris flow by combining different mitigation measures while minimizing the impact through event forecasting and rapid public information sharing. Declines in the number and size of debris flows in the gully, with increased corresponding rainfall thresholds and mean rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds, indicate the high efficacy of the new mitigation system and a lowered debris flow susceptibility. This paper reports the design of the mitigation system and analyzes the characteristics of rainfall and debris flow events that occurred before and after implementation of the system; it evaluates the effectiveness of one of the most advanced debris flow mitigation systems in China. 相似文献
2.
Chen Chien-Yuan Chen Tien-Chien Yu Fan-Chieh Yu Wen-Hui Tseng Chun-Chieh 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(5):715-724
A rainfall-induced debris flow warning is implemented employing real-time rain gauge data. The pre-warning for the time of landslide triggering derives the threshold or critical rainfall from historical events involving regional rainfall patterns and geological conditions. In cases of debris flow, the time taken cumulative runoff, to yield abundant water for debris triggering, is an important index that needs monitoring. In gathered historical cases, rainfall time history data from the nearest rain gauge stations to debris-flow sites connected to debris flow are used to define relationships between the rainfall intensity and duration. The effects by which the regional rainfall patterns (antecedent rainfall, duration, intensity, cumulative rainfall) and geological settings combine together to trigger a debris-flow are analyzed for real-time monitoring. The analyses focused on 61 historical hazard events with the timing of debris flow initiation and rainfall duration to burst debris-flow characteristics recorded. A combination of averaged rainfall intensity and duration is a more practical index for debris-flow monitoring than critical or threshold rainfall intensity. Because, the outburst timing of debris flows correlates closely to the peak hourly rainfall and the forecasting of peak hourly rainfall reached in a meteorological event could be a valuable index for real-time debris-flow warning. 相似文献
3.
2011年贵州省望谟县打易镇的大范围浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷泥石流提供了研究这类泥石流地形和降雨条件的机会。在地质条件一致和小区域内的降雨条件基本一致的情况下,地形条件就是这些泥石流暴发与否的唯一决定因素。对比一些重要的地形因素与泥石流暴发的关系,得出了由流域面积、沟床纵比降和25°~45°山坡坡度面积比组成的泥石流综合地形因子T。在地形因子T的基础上,研究获得了由前期降雨量、1 h降雨强度、年平均降雨量等组成的降雨因子R。由地形因子T和降雨因子R获得的临界条件P可以判断该区域的泥石流暴发。由于研究工作部分基于泥石流的形成机理,研究成果还可用于其他区域的泥石流形成预测,为泥石流的预测预报提供了一个较好的方法。 相似文献
4.
对台风暴雨泥石流发生的可能性进行定量预测,有助于减少危险区内的人员伤亡、降低经济损失。以台湾地区南投县陈有兰溪流域的47条泥石流沟为研究对象,从泥石流形成所需的地形地貌、物源和降雨条件中,初步选取台风暴雨泥石流发生的影响因子,包括沟床平均坡度、有效流域面积、形状系数、主沟长度、岩性、崩滑比和平均雨强。根据因子重要性排序结果,选择崩滑比和平均雨强作为模型的预测因子,基于Fisher判别法建立了台风暴雨泥石流预测模型。采用随机取样技术,选取70%的数据用于构建模型,剩余30%的数据用于验证模型。以精确度、准确率、漏报率和误报率指标,定量评价模型的预测效果,并确定最优的预测模型。结果表明:基于Fisher判别法构建的台风暴雨泥石流预测模型,综合考虑了泥石流形成所需的物源条件和降雨条件,弥补了降雨阈值模型仅依靠降雨资料分析的不足,预测效果更好。 相似文献
5.
Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 14 August 2010 rainfall at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
The Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 produced large amounts of loose material (landslide debris) that are still present
on the steep slopes and in the gullies. This loose material creates an important hazard as strong rainfall can cause the development
of devastating debris flows that will endanger the resettled population and destroy the result of reconstruction efforts.
On 14 August 2010, a total of 21 debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall around the town of Yingxue, located near the
epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. One of these debris flows produced a debris dam, which then changed the course of the
river and resulted in the flooding of the newly reconstructed Yinxue town. Prior to this catastrophic event, debris flow hazard
had been recognized in the region, but its potential for such widespread and devastating impacts was not fully appreciated.
Our primary objective for this study was to analyze the characteristics of the triggering rainfall and the sediment supply
conditions leading to this event. Our field observations show that even small debris flow catchment areas have caused widespread
sediment deposition on the existing fans. It is concluded that the whole of the area shaken by the Wenchuan earthquake is
more susceptible to debris flows, initiated by localized heavy rainfall, than had been assumed earlier. The results of this
study contribute to a better understanding of the conditions leading to catastrophic debris flow events in the earthquake-hit
area. This is essential for the implementation of proper early warning, prevention, and mitigation measures as well as a better
land use planning in this area. 相似文献
6.
Several giant debris flows occurred in southwestern China after the Wenchuan earthquake, causing serious casualties and economic losses. Debris flows were frequently triggered after the earthquake. A relatively accurate prediction of these post-seismic debris flows can help to reduce the consequent damages. Existing debris flow prediction is almost based on the study of the relationship between post-earthquake debris flows and rainfall. The relationship between the occurrence of post-seismic debris flows and characteristic rainfall patterns was studied in this paper. Fourteen rainfall events related to debris flows that occurred in four watersheds in the Wenchuan earthquake area were collected. By analyzing the rainfall data, characteristics of rainfall events that triggered debris flows after the earthquake were obtained. Both the critical maximum rainfall intensity and average rainfall intensity increased with the time. To describe the critical conditions for debris flow initiation, intensity–duration curves were constructed, which shows how the threshold for triggering debris flows increased each year. The time that the critical rainfall intensities of debris flow occurrences return to the value prior to the earthquake could not be estimated due to the absent rainfall data before the earthquake. Rainfall-triggering response patterns could be distinguished for rainfall-induced debris flows. The critical rainfall patterns related to debris flows could be divided on the basis of antecedent rainfall duration and intensity into three categories: (1) a rapid triggering response pattern, (2) an intermediate triggering response pattern, and (3) a slow triggering response pattern. The triggering response patterns are closely related to the initiation mechanisms of post-earthquake debris flows. The main difference in initiation mechanisms and difference in triggering patterns by rainfall is regulated by the infiltration process and determined by a number of parameters, such as hydro-mechanical soil characteristics, the thickness of the soil, and the slope gradient. In case of a rapid triggering response rainfall pattern, the hydraulic conductivity and initial moisture content are the main impact factors. Runoff erosion and rapid loading of solid material is the dominant process. In case of a rainfall pattern with a slow triggering response, the thickness and strength of the soil, high hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity are the impact factors. Probably slope failure is the most dominant process initiating debris flows. In case of an intermediate triggering response pattern, both debris flow initiation mechanisms (runoff erosion and slope failure) can play a role. 相似文献
7.
Improving debris flow monitoring in Taiwan by using high-resolution rainfall products from QPESUMS 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
Chien-Yuan Chen Lee-Yao Lin Fan-Chieh Yu Ching-Sheng Lee Chun-Chieh Tseng An-Hsiang Wang Kei-Wai Cheung 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):447-461
Debris flow is commonly initiated by torrential rain and its triggering is correlated to the hydrological, geological, and
geomorphic conditions on site. In spite of the important effects of geology and topography, rainfall characteristic is the
main external triggering factor to debris flow and is a predominant parameter for real-time monitoring. Due to the scarcity
of sufficient spatial ground-based rainfall data in hill areas, quantitative precipitation estimation using remote-sensing
techniques such as radar and satellite is needed for debris flow pre-warning. The QPESUMS (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation
and Segregation Using Multiple Sensors) system was acquired to retrieve spatial rainfall data during the rainfall period from
June 30 to July 6 in 2004 when Typhoon Mindulle and southwesterly flow struck Taiwan. The retrieved data were used for setting
up the debris flow monitoring algorithm. With the aid of multiple platforms of meteorological observations, a rainfall threshold
isohyet in a pilot area was mapped for debris flow monitoring. The rainfall monitoring algorithm based on QPESUMS provides
more detailed information than the limited number of ground-based rainfall stations for interpreting the spatial distributions
of rainfall events, and therefore is more suitable for debris-flow monitoring. 相似文献
8.
Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale. 相似文献
9.
Bin Yu 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(1):391-406
The accurate prediction of debris flows occurrence that will allow the reduction or prevention of economic losses and human
casualties is presently the most difficult aspect of debris flows studies but also the aspect that receives most attention.
Most prediction methods are based on rainfall as the basic parameter, with the moment of occurrence as only result, and without
a prediction of debris flow travel time and size. This paper takes Jiangjia Gully in Dongchuan of Yunnan Province as an example,
and considers, on the basis of the fulfillment of the essential condition: the abundant availability of loose materials, the
conditions for the formation of debris flows. Based on the mechanism of the initiation of debris flows in channels and the
volume of rainfall in the basin, this paper also gives a systematic analysis on the travel time and size of the debris flow
and suggests that the hydrological condition for forming debris flow is the unit discharge of the flood ≥0.35 m3/s.m. It uses the 10-min rainfall intensity to calculate both the run-off of the rainfall and the unit discharge caused by
the run-off, thus predicting the occurrence of debris flows. The velocity and the travel time of a debris flow can also be
determined using the unit discharge of the run-off. The total volume of debris flows can be calculated using the 10-min intensity
of rainfall and the total volume of the run-off, together with the volume concentration of the sediment in a debris flow. 相似文献
10.
Experimental evidences and numerical modelling of debris flow initiated by channel runoff 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Debris flow initiation by channel bed mobilization is a common process in high mountainous areas. Initiation is more likely
to occur at the outlet of small, steeply sloping basins where concentrated overland flow feeds an ephemeral channel incised
in slope deposits. Such geological conditions are typical of the Dolomite region (Italian Alps), which is characterized by
widespread debris flow activity triggered by severe summer thunderstorms. Real-time data and field observations for one of
these catchments (Acquabona catchment, Belluno, Italian Alps) were used to characterize the hydrological response of the initiation
area to rainfalls of varying intensity and duration. The observed behaviour was then reproduced by means of a simple hydrological
model, based on the kinematic wave assumption, to simulate the generation of channel runoff. The model is capable of predicting
the observed hydrological response for a wide range of rainfall impulses, thus providing a physical basis for the understanding
of the debris flow triggering threshold. 相似文献
11.
利用搜集的汶川震区典型泥石流暴发前后的降雨过程资料,分析了泥石流的激发雨量过程,获得了汶川震区的泥石流激发雨量特征,以期为泥石流的预测预报提供依据。结果表明,汶川地震区的泥石流激发雨型可分为快速激发型、中速激发型和慢速激发型3类,其差异主要体现在降雨的持续时间和强度方面。不同激发雨型下的泥石流形成过程的差别主要体现在松散土体饱和过程。雨型的差异(降雨的持续时间和强度)使得土体饱和产生超渗产流的时间出现差异,进而使得泥石流暴发的时间存在差异。激发雨强跟激发雨型存在一定的关系,激发雨强最大者为中速激发雨型,其次是慢速激发雨型,最小者为快速激发雨型。与地震之前相比,地震后的泥石流暴发时的累积雨量和临界雨量都有所降低。 相似文献
12.
贵州省望谟县望谟河流域地质条件复杂,地形落差大,汇流作用强,富有大量松散物质,发育有3条主沟。在强降雨条件下,各沟渠发育的小规模泥石流同时爆发流入主沟,最终汇流于望谟河内,导致流量增大,泥沙含量增多,易产生特大洪涝沟谷型泥石流灾害,对沿岸居民和下游的望谟县城存在极大的安全隐患。2011年6月6日特大洪涝泥石流灾害的爆发给当地居民的生命财产造成了严重的损失。为减少泥石流危害,基于流域内泥石流的形成条件和发育特点的调研,以雨量、次声、水位和影像为监测内容,合理布置了雨量计、物位计、次声警报仪和视频系统,构成了针对该流域的泥石流监测网,拟定了预警阈值并划分了预警等级,形成了集采集、解译、传输、分析、决策、控制和预警为一体的自动化监测预警系统。通过对异常数据、缺失数据、波状数据和噪音的优化处理,取得了有效的监测成果,实现了对流域内雨量、次声、水位、影像信息的实时动态监控,为望谟河泥石流预警预报提供一定保证。 相似文献
13.
The debris flow (DF) and debris flood (DFD) activity in the Rebaixader catchment (Spanish Pyrenees) is analyzed in this study. The research is focused on how precipitation leads to the triggering of torrential floods and influences the sediment availability during the recharge period, in a supply-unlimited catchment. Two kinds of correlations are studied: (1) the correlation between the rainfall features (intensity and kinetic energy) and the DF/DFD triggering and (2) the correlation between the hyetograph and the DF/DFD volumes. The tested hypothesis was that a greater amount of rainfall during the recharge period would produce a greater DF/DFD volume. The period between two consecutive DF/DFD events is processed using a variable, the Erosion Index, originally developed for the Universal Soil Loss Equation. This analysis considered the rainfall time series and 22 DF/DFD events registered during the period 2009–2015. The results show that the precipitation of the recharge period does not seem to have a strong influence on the mobilized volumes. In many cases, a second DF/DFD event was triggered soon after the previous event, which highlighted the role of the first event in creating an unstable state of the catchment. Additionally, a threshold relationship between the kinetic energy of the rainfall event and the maximum rainfall intensity for a 30-min period seems to be a good criterion to discriminate between triggering and non-triggering rainfall events. The results show no clear trends with which to forecast the sediment volume from precipitation, weakening the role of rainfall characteristics in determining the return period of mobilized sediment volumes in catchments similar to the Rebaixader torrent. 相似文献
14.
Rainfall patterns for shallow landsliding in perialpine Slovenia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This paper presents two types of analysis: an antecedent rainfall analysis based on daily rainfall and an intensity-duration analysis of rainfall events based on hourly data in perialpine Slovenia in the ?kofjelo?ko Cerkljansko hills. For this purpose, eight rainfall events that are known to have caused landslides in the period from 1990 to 2010 were studied. Over the observed period, approximately 400 records of landslides were collected. Rainfall data were obtained from three rain gauges. The daily rainfall from the 30 days before landslide events was investigated based on the type of landslides and their geo-environmental setting, the dates of confirmed landslide activity and different consecutive rainfall periods. The analysis revealed that the rainfall events triggering slope failure can be divided into two groups according to the different antecedent periods. The first group of landslides typically occurred after short-duration rainstorms with high intensity, when the daily rainfall exceeded the antecedent rainfall. The second group comprises the rainfall events with a longer antecedent period of at least 7 days. A comparison of the plotted peak and mean intensities indicates that the rainfall patterns that govern slope failure are similar but do not necessarily reflect the rainfall intensity at the time of shallow landslides in the Dav?a or Poljane areas, where the majority of the landslides occurred. Because of several limitations, the suggested threshold cannot be compared and evaluated with other thresholds. 相似文献
15.
2020年6月17日丹巴县梅龙沟爆发了一次大规模泥石流,一次性冲出固体物质42.7×104 m3,形成泥石流-堰塞坝-溃决洪水-滑坡灾害链,造成5100余户2.12万余人被迫转移,直接经济损失达8亿元。根据现场调查、无人机航拍以及遥感解译,分析梅龙沟泥石流的成因及致灾机理,阐述了“物源成因”、“降雨激发”和“地形促进”对泥石流形成产生的影响。结果表明:（1）梅龙沟泥石流是在前期累计降雨和短时强降雨共同作用下形成;（2）梅龙沟泥石流源头为大石堡沟,起动模式为“沟岸垮塌-泥石流”;（3）泥石流沟内持续的物源补给以及东风棚子、梅龙村、大邑村三处大型滑坡产生的级联堵溃效应,致使泥石流流量不断放大,最终导致大量固体物质冲出沟口;（4）沟口形成的堰塞坝-溃决洪水-阿娘寨滑坡灾害链进一步增强了泥石流的致灾能力;（5）现阶段梅龙沟内物源丰富,临界启动降雨阈值降低,极易在雨季发生大规模泥石流,建议及时采取综合防治措施。 相似文献
16.
Fan-Chieh Yu Tien-Chien Chen Meei-Ling Lin Chien-Yuan Chen Wen-Hai Yu 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(1-2):153-167
The severe Typhoon Nari ended on September 15, 2001 with a high-intensity and high-accumulation storm that dumped up to 1249 mm
of rain in Taipei City, Taiwan. The high-intensity and high-accumulation event caused flooding and triggered more than 400
soils slips and debris flows and large, complex landslides. Detailed information on 63 events, including rainfall, initiation
time, and magnitude of landslides were documented and analyzed to identify the landslides and rainfall characteristic in Taipei
City during Typhoon Nari. The result reveals that slump, slide, and debris flow events are associated with the situation of
high-intensity or high-accumulation rainfall. The rainfall intensity-duration condition resulted in smaller magnitude and
shallow failures. Medium to massive landslide were mainly related to the high-accumulation rainfall. A landslide regionalization
process based on rainfall, geomorphologic and geologic characteristics is proposed. Results of the proposed process show good
agreement with landslide events observed in the Taipei City during Typhoon Nari. 相似文献
17.
Changing debris flow activity after sudden sediment input: a case study from the Swiss Alps 
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下载免费PDF全文 On 27 December 2011, a rock avalanche in the upper Val Bondasca in the southern Swiss Alps deposited 1.5–1.7 million m3 of rock debris. The following summer, debris flow activity in Val Bondasca was unusually high with four events after a 90‐year period of debris flow inactivity. This was an exceptional situation for the valley. Analysing the 2012 events, the long‐term record of meteorological conditions such as rainfall intensity and duration, in comparison with debris flow activity, suggests that the meteorological conditions in summer 2012 would not have triggered the high intensity debris flow events without additional sediment input. Consequently, the suddenly increased debris availability can be considered a major factor in these events. Interestingly, rainfall events of similar magnitude in the subsequent years 2013–2015 did not trigger additional debris flow events, indicating that debris flow initiation thresholds are increasing again, back towards pre‐rock avalanche levels. This study aims to help in understanding the so far poorly understood temporal evolution of debris flow triggering thresholds and the effect of sudden changes in sediment availability. 相似文献
18.
Dennis M. Staley Jason W. Kean Susan H. Cannon Kevin M. Schmidt Jayme L. Laber 《Landslides》2013,10(5):547-562
Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60 min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds. 相似文献
19.
为进一步探明银洞子沟物源区坡面物源启动机理与降雨的相关性,在进行详细的现场考察与工程勘察工作后选取了典型模型体,并采用20余组人工降雨物理试验方法将降雨强度与坡度设为控制变量,研究了4种坡形、5种雨强条件下,坡面松散物源的失稳机制及破坏模式。试验结果揭示了地表变形与地下物理力学参数变化的定量响应关系,并基于试验发生破坏的临界雨量,建立了银洞子沟传统I-D预警模型。之后提炼可靠预警参数(坡度、深部体积含水率),通过数学回归分析方法并采用Exponential模型,得出IGD、IGM多参数新型预警判别式,实现了传统I-D模型的有效修正,并具一定的可靠性和实用价值。 相似文献
20.
中国东部地区的地质灾害多以坡面泥石流的形式发生,预测预报坡面泥石流的发生对于开展防灾减灾具有重要意义。地形、地质和降雨三大条件是影响坡面泥石流发生的主要条件。通过选择同样地质条件和基本相同降雨条件的区域,研究影响坡面泥石流发生的地形条件,并得出可以用于坡面泥石流预报的坡面泥石流地形条件。结果表明:地形条件由坡面坡度因子、泥石流上部因子、泥石流侧面因子和临空面因子组成;较大的地形条件T对应较大的泥石流发生可能性;降雨条件由泥石流发生前的降雨量与1 h降雨量组成;得出了由地形条件T和降雨条件R组成的坡面泥石流预报条件P,P值越大,坡面泥石流发生的可能性越大。预报条件P可以预报坡面泥石流的发生。 相似文献