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1.
The goals of this work are to show the range of debris-flow volumes and watershed characteristics for several locations, and the differences in flow volumes for events triggered soon after wildfire. A dataset of 929 events was divided into groups based on location and burn status. The three unburned locations show significant differences: debris flows from the Italian Alps are larger and generate more debris per unit basin area or unit channel length than flows in the Western USA or in the Pacific Northwest. However, some of the observed differences may be attributed to the skew of the Italian Alps dataset towards larger events, and the small size and limited range of the Pacific Northwest data. For burned watersheds in the Western U.S. events, there is a clear progression in decreasing volume in debris flows as basins recover from the wildfire: it takes approximately 1 year, or at a few locations, as much as 3 years, for debris production to return to pre-fire rates. The difference is most apparent when the data are normalized for basin area (the area yield, which is 2× larger for burned basins) or for channel length (the length yield, which is 1.6× larger for burned basins). When normalized simultaneously for basin area, channel length, and channel gradient, burned areas produce significantly more debris (2.7–5.4 times as much). Burned areas in the Western USA are more sensitive to wildfire and produce larger debris flows than burned areas in more humid climates such as the Pacific Northwest. 相似文献
2.
贵州省望谟县2011年6月6日暴发了特大山洪泥石流,其中暴雨中心所在的打易镇多处暴发泥石流。短历时强降雨激发了沟床起动类型的泥石流。本文通过对贵州望谟河流域群发泥石流的调查,得出该流域的66条沟中,22条沟无沟床起动类型泥石流暴发,25条沟暴发沟床起动类型泥石流,还有19条沟无法确定是否有沟床起动类型泥石流暴发。在前期工作基础上,提出了地质条件和降水条件因子的改进方法;并在前期工作的3大条件（地形条件、地质条件和降水条件）之间的关系基础上,由贵州望谟群发泥石流数据得出改进沟床起动类型泥石流的临界值,提出了泥石流的预报模型。本文模型在我国西南地区的泥石流验证中非常成功,为泥石流的预报提供了一个新方法。预报模型中的地形因子和地质因子还可以判断泥石流流域的暴发频率,为正确地判断泥石流流域的特征打下了基础。预报模型也可以估算泥石流的暴发规模,为定量地预测泥石流危害范围提供了依据。 相似文献
3.
Bin Yu Yuan Zhu Tao Wang Yuanjing Chen Yunbo Zhu Yongbo Tie Ke Lu 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):1141-1161
Many debris flows were triggered within and also outside the Dayi area of the Guizhou Province, China, during a rainstorm in 2011. High-intensity short-duration rainfall was the main triggering factor for these gully-type debris flows which are probably triggered by a runoff-induced mechanism. A revised prediction model was introduced for this kind of gully-type debris flows with factors related to topography, geology, and hydrology (rainfall) and applied to the Wangmo River catchment. Regarding the geological factor, the “soft lithology” and “loose sediments” in the channel were added to the list of the average firmness coefficient for the lithology. Also, the chemical weathering was taken into account for the revised geological factor. Concerning the hydrological factor, a coefficient of variation of rainfall was introduced for the normalization of the rainfall factor. The prediction model for debris flows proposed in this paper delivered three classes of the probability of debris flow occurrence. The model was successfully validated in debris flow gullies with the same initiation mechanism in other areas of southwest China. The generic character of the model is explained by the fact that its factors are partly based on the initiation mechanisms and not only on the statistical analyses of a unique variety of local factors. The research provides a new way to predict the occurrence of debris flows initiated by a runoff-induced mechanism. 相似文献
4.
Rapid debris flows are among the most destructive natural hazards in steep mountainous terrains. Prediction of their path and impact hinges on knowledge of initiation location and the size and constitution of the released mass. To better link mass release initiation with debris flow paths and runout lengths, we propose to capitalize on a newly developed model for rainfall-induced landslide initiation (“Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering” CHLT model, von Ruette et al. 2013) and couple it with simple estimates of debris flow runout distances and pathways. Landslide locations and volumes provided by the CHLT model are used as inputs to simulate debris flow runout distances with two empirical- and two physically-based models. The debris flow runout models were calibrated using two landslide inventories in the Swiss Alps obtained following a large rainfall event in 2005. We first fitted and tested the models for the “Prättigau” inventory, where detailed information on runout path was available, and then applied the models to landslides inventoried from a different catchment (“Napf”). The predicted debris flow runout distances (emanating from CHLT simulated landslide positions) were well in the range of observed values for the physically-based approaches. The empirical approaches tend to overestimate runout distances relative to observations. These preliminary results demonstrate the added value of linking shallow landslide triggering models with predictions of debris flow runout pathways for a range of soil states and triggering events, thus providing a more complete hazard assessment picture for debris flow exposure at the catchment scale. 相似文献
5.
水力类泥石流起动机理与预报研究进展与方向 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
水力类泥石流是泥石流的一大类型,一旦暴发可造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,因而其起动机理和预报是泥石流学科的前沿课题。尽管国内外研究在该领域取得了显著进展,但是由于该类泥石流起动机理的复杂性,已有的预报模型和其实用性仍然有相当的差距。概述了水力类泥石流起动与预报的国内外研究进展,提出未来该研究方向的主要研究内容。未来研究内容应该包括从环境地质学、地貌学和水文学角度认识水力类泥石流的起动成因和过程及相应的临界条件;研究以水文学为主线的水力类泥石流的起动机理和模型,并提出水力类泥石流的起动水文参数临界条件;建立以临界流量法和分布式水文模型为理论依据的水力类泥石流的预报途径和方法。该研究对加强水力类泥石流起动机理及预测预报的创新性研究和促进学科发展具有重要的科学价值和实践意义。 相似文献
6.
Debris flows constitute a major threat forseveral urban settlements located on the fans ofmountain catchments and for other infrastructures thatinteract with these fans, particularly highways andmotorways. Often structural measures such as theconstruction and maintenance of deposition basins,check dams, channel linings are both too expensive andnot capable of completely guaranteeing the safety forinhabitants of villages and users of infrastructuresaffected by debris flows. Therefore the search offunctional, reliable and possibly not expensivewarning systems should be pursued to increase theavailable tools to face this often devastating kind ofphenomenon. In this paper the use of seismic detectorsfor the determination of a debris flow occurrence ina torrent before its arrival on the fan will bediscussed, together with their potential use asmonitoring and warning systems. In 1995 a set of fourseismic detectors was placed at a distance of aboutone hundred meters from each other along a straightchannel reach of a debris flow prone torrent locatedon the Eastern Italian Alps. The purpose, in a firstphase of the research, was mainly to verify whichinformation could be obtained through this type ofdevice on the occasion of a debris flow occurrence. On5 July 1995, 22 June and 8 July 1996 three debrisflows were recorded by this seismic network: the datathat have been collected will be presented andconveniently processed for their interpretation. Theresults that have been obtained show that the passageof a debris flow in a torrent can be clearlyidentified using seismic devices placed at a safedistance from the channel bed and that in some casesa velocity estimation of the flowing mass is alsopossible through the processing of the seismic data. 相似文献
7.
泥石流形成区沟床宽度和颗粒粒径对沟床起动型泥石流的发生影响很大,在强烈地震影响区内显得尤为突出,但目前的泥石流预报中还没考虑到这两个因素,无法准确预测强震区泥石流的发生.在泥石流10 min和1 h精细化预报模型基础上,通过现场调查群发泥石流事件,结合汶川地震强烈影响区泥石流的演化特点,引入了泥石流形成区沟道宽度和颗粒粒径的影响,建立了改进的精细化泥石流10 min和1 h预报模型,并在贵州望谟打易和四川德昌群发泥石流、汶川地震强烈影响区的文家沟多次泥石流事件中获得了很好的验证结果,得出泥石流形成区的颗粒粒径代表泥石流的地质因子,泥石流形成区沟床宽度代表泥石流的地形因子之一,这2个因子在泥石流发生中的作用都非常重要;改进的精细化10 min和1 h预报模型以及临界值,可以用于强烈地震区和一般的泥石流预报. 相似文献
8.
AbstractAlluvial fans are abundant in many valleys of the Alps, consisting of important sites for human settlements. Relationships between alluvial fan morphometry and drainage basin characteristics have been investigated in six valleys of the Eastern Italian Alps, displaying different geological and morphological conditions. Both debris flow fans and fluvial fans are present in the studied region, the latest occurring only in quite large basins. Expansion of alluvial fans is greatly determined by the topographic characteristics of receiving valleys. Fan gradient is mainly affected by basin ruggedness conditioning depositional processes, by debris size, and, in some cases, by post-depositional reworking of fan surfaces. 相似文献
9.
本文分析了主要由冰滑坡和冰崩入湖导致的冰湖溃决的机理和条件.进而,从气候条件、水文条件、终碛堤、冰湖规模、冰滑坡、沟床特征和固体物质补给等方面分析了冰湖溃决泥石流的形成条件和特点,归纳出冰湖溃决泥石流沿程演化的6种模式:溃决洪水-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流和溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流-洪水.针对冰湖溃决泥石流突发性强、频度低、洪峰高、流量大、流量过程暴涨暴落、破坏力强和灾害波及范围广等特点,提出了7点减灾对策. 相似文献
10.
In the framework of the landslide susceptibility assessment, the maps produced should include not only the landslide initiation areas, but also those areas potentially affected by the traveling mobilized material. To achieve this purpose, the susceptibility analysis must be separated in two distinct components: (1) The first one, which is also the most discussed in the literature, deals with the susceptibility to failure, and (2) the second component refers to the run-out modeling using the initiation areas as an input. Therefore, in this research we present a debris flow susceptibility assessment in a recently burned area in a mountain zone in central Portugal. The modeling of debris flow initiation areas is performed using two statistical methods: a bivariate (information value) and a multivariate (logistic regression). The independent validation of the results generated areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves between 0.91 and 0.98. The slope angle, plan curvature, soil thickness and lithology proved to be the most relevant predisposing factors for the debris flow initiation in recently burned areas. The run-out is simulated by applying two different methods: the empirical model Flow Path Assessment of Gravitational Hazards at a Regional Scale (Flow-R) and the hydrological algorithm D-infinity downslope influence (DI). The run-out modeling of the 36 initiation areas included in the debris flow inventory delivered a true positive rate of 83.5% for Flow-R and 80.5% for DI, reflecting a good performance of both models. Finally, the susceptibility map for the entire basin including both the initiation and the run-out areas in a scenario of a recent wildfire was produced by combining the four models mentioned above. 相似文献
11.
强震区侵蚀-溃决型泥石流的动力特性定量分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
强震作用导致流域内松散物源、微地貌及水文环境发生剧烈变化,致使强震区泥石流的形成机制和活动规律区别于普通泥石流。从启动判别、沟床侵蚀和溃决放大效应等3个方面入手,利用物理模型和数值模拟,定量分析了强震区泥石流启动-流通-堆积全过程的动力特性。结合案例验证了强震侵蚀-溃决型泥石流的力学机制。分析表明,泥石流沟床侵蚀是外部应力增加、内部强度衰减和松散物质基础3种机制的综合结果,沟道堰塞体溃决导致泥石流流量被瞬间放大,进而反馈到侵蚀机制中,导致泥石流规模剧增。红椿沟8·14泥石流案例验算显示,H02、H03堰塞体溃决导致泥石流流量放大至800.80m3·s-1,沟床侵蚀物质总量达34.72×104m3,约占总规模的50%。 相似文献
12.
2012年8月18日汶川震区的银厂沟区域暴发群发性泥石流,造成人员伤亡,公路、房屋等基础设施严重受损。这场泥石流灾害发生在汶川地震极震区内,是地震与强降雨共同作用下的结果,因此研究其成灾机制和灾害特征对于进一步认识强震区泥石流活动具有重要意义。本研究采用地面调查和遥感解译方法,分析银厂沟区域泥石流形成条件的变化。研究结果表明强震条件下崩塌、滑坡等产生的松散固体物质,是泥石流活动的物质基础; 沟道受松散岩土体堵塞,有利于泥石流规模放大; 快速激发型的雨量特征为泥石流暴发提供了动力。在此基础上讨论了泥石流起动、运动和堆积过程,总结了泥石流活动特征,发现泥石流沿发震断裂呈带状分布,成因组合上属于降雨控制型,尚处于青年期,且在成灾模式上满足致承耦合效应。 相似文献
13.
This research assesses the morphological consequences of recent (post‐‘Little Ice Age’) paraglacial reworking of valley‐side sediment mantles in the European Alps. It aims to identify the extent and conditioning factors of slope adjustment at sites in the Swiss Alps, model the temporal pattern, and assess the rates of sediment reworking involved. Gully systems have cut into steep, high‐level lateral moraines, and debris cones have accumulated downslope. Debris flow is the dominant agent of sediment transfer. Factors controlling the extent of this activity include moraine slope gradient, relief and moisture availability. Gullies appear to have reached their maximum dimensions within ca. 50 yr of deglaciation, after which gully relief is reduced by removal of inter‐gully slopes and gully infilling (within 80–140 yr). On the most recently deglaciated terrain, minimum erosion rates average ca. 95 mm yr?1 since gully initiation, greatly exceeding ‘normal’ erosion rates in other environments. Mean annual accumulation of a single debris cone since ice retreat was calculated to be ca. 30 mm yr?1. Implications of these findings are applied to patterns of paraglacial sediment‐mantled slope adjustment, conceptualising paraglacial landscape response in terms of a sediment release exhaustion model, and paraglacial landform succession. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Fritz Schlunegger Alexandre Badoux Brian W. McArdell Corina Gwerder David Schnydrig Dirk Rieke-Zapp Peter Molnar 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(11-12):1097-1105
The 9.5 km2 Illgraben catchment, located in the Rhône valley in the Central Alps of Switzerland, is one of the most active debris flow torrents in the Alps. In this paper we present sediment yield data collected in 2006 for segments where hillslopes and channels form a fully connected network and contrast these with sediment yields measured for disconnected hillslopes. The data reveal that sediment yields are 1–2 orders of magnitude larger in segments where hillslopes are connected with the channel network than on disconnected hillslopes. Support for this conclusion is provided by observations made on 1959, 1999 and 2004 aerial photographs that the vegetation cover in the disconnected segments is still intact, whereas denudation rates of several centimeters per year in the connected segments have inhibited the establishment of a stable vegetation cover. Furthermore, sediment supplied from hillslopes during the past 40 years has temporarily accumulated along the Illgraben channel, indicating that the channel aggraded over this period and has not yet recovered. An implication of this observation is that initiation of debris flows in the Illgraben catchment is limited more by the availability of intense rainfall than sediment. In contrast, on disconnected hillslopes, sediment flux does not appear to be driven by precipitation.The petrographic composition of the Illgraben fan deposits indicates two distinct sediment sources, one related to rockfall and the other to landslides and debris flows. The presence of clasts from both sources implies multiple processes of erosion, deposition, mixing and re-entrainment in the catchment before the material is exported to the Illgraben fan and to the Rhône River. In addition, delivery of large amounts of coarse-grained sediment to the Rhône causes a modification of the flow pattern from meandering or anastomosing upstream to braided downstream. Hence, the direct connectivity between hillslope and channelized processes in the Illgraben catchment causes not only rapid topographic modifications in the catchment, but also morphologic adjustment in the Rhône valley downstream. 相似文献
15.
坡面土体的崩塌活动是泥石流形成的初始过程。为了研究降雨条件下该过程中蕴含的随机性,选择典型泥石流源地坡面进行人工降雨实验,观测坡面径流和坡面土体活动特征。结果表明：坡面径流的产生与坡面土体的供给是2个相对独立的过程;坡面产流过程在时间上具有连续性,空间上具有均匀性,规模上具有稳定性;即使是在恒定的降雨强度条件下,泥石流的源地土体活动也表现为一个离散的土体崩塌序列,具有时间上的间歇性、空间上的聚集性、规模上的随机性,且在时间上服从泊松分布,在规模上服从规模-频率的幂率关系;坡面的水土过程是不完全同步的,泥石流的形成依赖于坡面土体补给的时间、空间和规模分布,这也决定了泥石流阵流的多变和流量的涨落。建立基于土体活动特征的随机性补给模型,结合分布式水文模型,是建立科学的泥石流预报模型的有效方法。 相似文献
16.
泥石流堆积物作为泥石流发育最终的产物,含有大量与泥石流发生过程和发育特征相关的信息,能够反映泥石流灾害程度和活动强度。研究表明,泥石流堆积物颗粒具有明显的自相似性和无标度区间,运用分形理论,计算泥石流堆积物颗粒分布的分维数。分析分维数与主沟长度、泥砂补给段长度比、主沟平均比降、流域最大相对高差和松散物源量的关系,结果表明分维数与各因素之间存在较强的非线性响应关系。以乌东德库区泥石流实测数据为例,以上述的5个因素作为输入单元,建立了泥石流堆积物分维数支持向量机预测模型,并对分维数进行了预测,其预测结果的最大误差为1.25%,说明预测值与实测值吻合度较高。综合表明支持向量机预测模型能够较好地模拟和泛化数据,是一种行之有效的泥石流堆积物分形维数预测方法,可用于不具备筛析条件的泥石流堆积物粒度分布特征的预测与研究,进而可为研究泥石流的形成机理、类型、危险度和堆积物的形成演化特征及物理力学性质提供一个新思路。 相似文献
17.
火后泥石流是火烧迹地最为严重的次生地质灾害,相对于传统泥石流和震后泥石流,其物源启动模式及致灾机理呈现出特殊性。通过对四川省乡城县仁额拥沟火烧迹地沟道不同时间尺度下的累积侵蚀量统计分析,将火烧迹地物源启动分为3个阶段:坡面侵蚀阶段、高含沙水流沟道侵蚀阶段和泥石流沟道刨蚀阶段,其中面蚀到沟蚀转变所需的汇流面积与斜坡倾斜度和火烈度呈负相关,高含沙水流转变为泥石流后常常造成沟道侵蚀率的激增;火烧后2 a的坡面侵蚀量相当于火烧前10~30 a的侵蚀总量,且主要发生在中度及严重火烧区;火烧区的滑坡发育率远高于未火烧区,但未发现火烈度对滑坡体积有明显影响,其主要受临空面高度影响,并呈幂函数正相关,滑坡物源启动模式为坡脚切坡触发的逐级牵引后退式补给。 相似文献
18.
Several giant debris flows occurred in southwestern China after the Wenchuan earthquake, causing serious casualties and economic losses. Debris flows were frequently triggered after the earthquake. A relatively accurate prediction of these post-seismic debris flows can help to reduce the consequent damages. Existing debris flow prediction is almost based on the study of the relationship between post-earthquake debris flows and rainfall. The relationship between the occurrence of post-seismic debris flows and characteristic rainfall patterns was studied in this paper. Fourteen rainfall events related to debris flows that occurred in four watersheds in the Wenchuan earthquake area were collected. By analyzing the rainfall data, characteristics of rainfall events that triggered debris flows after the earthquake were obtained. Both the critical maximum rainfall intensity and average rainfall intensity increased with the time. To describe the critical conditions for debris flow initiation, intensity–duration curves were constructed, which shows how the threshold for triggering debris flows increased each year. The time that the critical rainfall intensities of debris flow occurrences return to the value prior to the earthquake could not be estimated due to the absent rainfall data before the earthquake. Rainfall-triggering response patterns could be distinguished for rainfall-induced debris flows. The critical rainfall patterns related to debris flows could be divided on the basis of antecedent rainfall duration and intensity into three categories: (1) a rapid triggering response pattern, (2) an intermediate triggering response pattern, and (3) a slow triggering response pattern. The triggering response patterns are closely related to the initiation mechanisms of post-earthquake debris flows. The main difference in initiation mechanisms and difference in triggering patterns by rainfall is regulated by the infiltration process and determined by a number of parameters, such as hydro-mechanical soil characteristics, the thickness of the soil, and the slope gradient. In case of a rapid triggering response rainfall pattern, the hydraulic conductivity and initial moisture content are the main impact factors. Runoff erosion and rapid loading of solid material is the dominant process. In case of a rainfall pattern with a slow triggering response, the thickness and strength of the soil, high hydraulic conductivity, and rainfall intensity are the impact factors. Probably slope failure is the most dominant process initiating debris flows. In case of an intermediate triggering response pattern, both debris flow initiation mechanisms (runoff erosion and slope failure) can play a role. 相似文献
19.
2011年贵州省望谟县打易镇的大范围浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷泥石流提供了研究这类泥石流地形和降雨条件的机会。在地质条件一致和小区域内的降雨条件基本一致的情况下,地形条件就是这些泥石流暴发与否的唯一决定因素。对比一些重要的地形因素与泥石流暴发的关系,得出了由流域面积、沟床纵比降和25°~45°山坡坡度面积比组成的泥石流综合地形因子T。在地形因子T的基础上,研究获得了由前期降雨量、1 h降雨强度、年平均降雨量等组成的降雨因子R。由地形因子T和降雨因子R获得的临界条件P可以判断该区域的泥石流暴发。由于研究工作部分基于泥石流的形成机理,研究成果还可用于其他区域的泥石流形成预测,为泥石流的预测预报提供了一个较好的方法。 相似文献
20.
缺资料地区泥石流预警雨量阈值研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
合理的雨量阈值指标是保障泥石流预警报准确性的关键,对于研究泥石流形成机制、分析预测未来活动特点以及指导防治工程设计等方面均具有重要意义。由于国内山区大多数泥石流沟均无降雨和灾害资料,目前国内外通行的实证法和频率计算法不能满足其泥石流预警报的需要。通过分析泥石流预警区的降雨条件、水文特征及下垫面条件,提出了基于水力类泥石流起动机制来计算泥石流预警雨量阈值的方法。主要根据流域地形及松散固体物质等特征,计算该流域泥石流起动的临界水深,并结合流域产汇流机制、特征降雨量随海拔变化规律、暴雨雨型特征,进而计算该流域泥石流预警雨量阈值。研究成果在四川省凉山州宁南县城后山史家沟流域进行了应用和验证,结果表明该方法具有合理性和可行性。该方法解决了缺资料地区泥石流预警报的难题,为山区泥石流预警报提供了一种新的思路。 相似文献