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1.
In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates.  相似文献   

2.
The recent very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Nargis’ over the Bay of Bengal caused widespread destruction over Myanmar after hitting the coast on 2 May 2008. The real time forecasting of the VSCS ‘Nargis’ was a very difficult task as it did not follow the normal westerly/northwesterly track. In the present study, a detailed diagnostic analysis of the system ‘Nargis’ is carried out initially to investigate the features associated with this unusual movement and subsequently the real time forecast of VSCS ‘Nargis’ using high resolution advanced version weather research forecasting (WRF) model is presented. The advanced research WRF model was run for 72 h at 27 km and 20 km resolutions with 28, 29, 30 April and 1 May as the initial conditions. The diagnostic study indicates that the recurvature of the system ‘Nargis’ was mainly associated with:
•  upper level southerly/southwesterly steering wind at 200 hPa level associated with anticyclonic circulation over southeastern sector of the centre of the system
•  higher SST (29°C or more) with higher positive anomalies over the region to the northeast of the cyclone centre, and
•  large negative 24 h pressure changes and large vorticity maximum to the east of the system.
The real time track forecast using the WRF model run at 27 km and 20 km resolution based on the initial conditions of 28 April (when the system was only 550 km away from the Indian coast) indicated that the system had a northeasterly forecast track and was not expected to cross the Indian coast. Similarly, based on 29 April initial condition the system showed east/east-northeasterly movement towards the Myanmar coast. The east/east-northeasterly movement of the ‘Nargis’ was persisting in the forecast based on 30 April and 1 May initial conditions with respective landfall errors of 85 km and 50 km with 27 km resolution, which reduces to 30 km and 40 km respectively with 20 km resolution, however, with a landfall time delay of about 10 h. Improvement of mean forecast errors at different forecast hours is noticed in WRF model run at higher resolution compared to that run at lower resolution. Thus, it is very clear that the advanced version WRF model had captured movement of the system reasonably well almost 3 days in advance. Consistence with the diagnostic analysis the WRF model forecast also indicates southerly/southwesterly strong steering wind at 200 hPa level and maximum pressure fall to the east of the system.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

This study investigates the storm surge caused by Typhoon Hato, which severely affected Macau, Hong Kong, and other coastal cities in China on 23 August 2017. A typhoon and storm surge coupling model demonstrated that the maximum storm surge height reached nearly 2.5?m along the coast of Macau, while that in Hong Kong was slightly below 2?m. Furthermore, a field survey of urban flooding revealed evidence of a 2.25-m inundation in downtown Macau and a 0.55-m inundation on Lantau Island, Hong Kong, which were likely exacerbated by a combination of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and surface water runoff over a complex hilly terrain. Significant wave overtopping and runup also occurred in beach and port areas. A typhoon track analysis confirmed that several comparably strong typhoons have followed similar ESE to WNW trajectories and made landfall in the Pearl River Delta in the last few decades. Although Hato was not the strongest of these storms, its forward speed of about 32.5?km/h was remarkably faster than those of other comparable typhoons. Higher levels of storm signal warnings were issued earlier in Hong Kong than in Macau, raising questions about the appropriate timing of warnings in these two nearby areas. Our analysis of the storm’s pattern suggests that both regions’ decisions regarding signal issuance could be considered reasonable or at least cannot be simply blamed, given the rapid motion and intensification of Hato and the associated economic risks at stake.  相似文献   

4.
The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction.  相似文献   

5.
The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast.  相似文献   

6.

Typhoon Lionrock, also known as the national number 1610 in Japan, caused severe flooding in east Japan in August 28–31, 2016, leaving a death toll of 22. With a maximum sustained wind speed of ~?220 km/h from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s best track, Lionrock was classified as a category 4 hurricane in Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and as a typhoon in Japan Meteorological Agency’s scale. Lionrock was among unique typhoons as it started its landfall from north of Japan. Here, we studied the characteristics of this typhoon through tide gauge data analysis, field surveys and numerical modeling. Tide gauge analysis showed that the surges generated by Lionrock were in the ranges of 15–55 cm with surge duration of 0.8–3.1 days. Our field surveys revealed that the damage to coastal communities/structures was moderate although it caused severe flooding inland. We measured a maximum coastal wave runup of 4.3 m in Iwaisaki. Such a runup was smaller than that generated by other category 4 typhoons hitting Japan in the past. Our numerical model was able to reproduce the storm surge generated by the 2016 Typhoon Lionrock. This validated numerical model can be used in the future for typhoon-hazard studies along the coast of northeastern Japan. Despite relatively small surge/wave runups in coastal areas, Lionrock’s death toll was more than that of some other category 4 typhoons. We attribute this to various primary (e.g., flooding, surges, waves, strong winds) and secondary (e.g., landslides, coastal erosions, debris flows, wind-blown debris) mechanisms and their combinations and interactions that contribute to damage/death during a typhoon event.

  相似文献   

7.
The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis of 2008 was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The time tested NCAR/PSU MM5 model has been used to simulate the Nargis cyclone, which is designed to have two domains covering the Bay of Bengal with horizontal resolutions of 90 and 30?km. The physics options chosen are Kain?CFritsch 2 for convection, Blackadar (BLA), Burk?CThompson, medium range forecast (MRF), Eta Mellor?CYamada (Eta MY) and Gayno?CSeaman (GS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Simple Ice for explicit cloud physics processes. The experiment was conducted with the model integration starting from April 27, 2008, to May 3, 2008. The performance of the five PBL schemes is evaluated in terms of radius height cross-section of the three component winds, surface heat fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat, equivalent potential temperature (?? e ), precipitation, track and variation of Central Surface Pressure and wind speed with time. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the intensity and movement of the system. The intensity of the storm is examined in terms of pressure drop, strength of the surface wind and rainfall associated with the storm. The results are compared to the India Meteorological Department observations. These experiments indicate that the intensity of the storm is well simulated with the Eta MY and BLA with finer resolution. The simulated track with MRF compared well with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observation at landfall position both with the 90 and 30?km resolutions.  相似文献   

8.
The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to test the sensitivity of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) to the use of a cumulus parameterization scheme, specifically the revised Kain–Fritsch (rKF) scheme, at high horizontal resolutions with grid spacing varying from 9 to 2 km. The rKF scheme simulated the typhoon in best agreement with the observation compared with other schemes, but some fundamental drawbacks relating the rKF scheme, e.g., neglecting the momentum adjustment and being less applicable to high-resolution modeling than multi-scaled schemes, could influence the results and were discussed. Initial results showed that the typhoon track simulations benefited little from the use of the rKF scheme or a fine resolution, partially because of the similar large-scale steering flows induced by the analyzed boundary conditions used in each simulation. The influences of using the rKF scheme on typhoon intensity, size, structure, and precipitation were dependent on the grid spacing, and the most apparent changes occurred near a grid length of 4 km. At 9–4-km grid spacings, using the rKF scheme produced typhoons much stronger with more rainfall and surface latent heat flux than did using no cumulus parameterization scheme. At 3- or 2-km grid spacing, using the rKF scheme caused little changes on typhoon intensity, and the changes in precipitation and surface latent heat flux were relatively small. These results suggested that the grid spacing of 2 km for simulations using no cumulus parameterization scheme or the grid spacing of 4 km for simulations using the rKF scheme facilitated reproducing the observed Typhoon Haiyan.  相似文献   

9.
Based on typhoon best track data of China Meteorological Administration and NCEP global reanalysis data, this study analyzed the characteristics of binary tropical cyclones (TC) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1951 to 2014 by using the objective determine standard. When the distance between the two TCs d≤ 1 800 km, they are defined as binary tropical cyclones or binary typhoons. And binary typhoons are divided into two different types which are typical binary typhoons and atypical binary typhoons. The climatic characteristics of binary tropical cyclones are as follows: There were 699 pairs of binary typhoons in Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1951 to 2014. In these cases, there were 446 pairs of typical binary typhoons and 253 pairs of atypical cases, occupying 63.8% and 36.2%, respectively. The proportion of typical cases increased with the shortest distance decreasing, while the proportion of atypical cases decreased with the shortest distance decreasing. When the speed of typical binary typhoons moving towards each other reached the peak, binary typhoons mainly showed the east to west direction. At this time, typhoons were controlled by easterly stream of the southern edge of the subtropical high. In this situation, the east typhoon moved toward the west typhoon quickly. When the anticlockwise angular velocity of typical binary typhoons reached the peak, binary cases distributed northeast to southwest or east-northeast to west-southwest, appearing in west and southwest edge of the subtropical high and mainly being controlled by southeasterly stream, thus benefiting the anticlockwise rotation between the typical binary typhoons.  相似文献   

10.
A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  
The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Thus, a usable scheme to forecast rainfall amount during a typhoon period is highly desired. An analysis using hourly rainfall amounts taken at 371 stations during 1989–2001 showed that the topographical lifting of typhoon circulation played an important role in producing heavier rainfall. A climatology model for typhoon rainfall, which considered the topographical lifting and the variations of rain rate with radius was then developed. The model could provide hourly rainfall at any station or any river basin for a given typhoon center. The cumulative rainfall along the forecasted typhoon track was also available. The results showed that the R2 value between the model estimated and the observed cumulative rainfall during the typhoon period for the Dan-Shui (DSH) and Kao-Ping (KPS) River Basins reached 0.70 and 0.81, respectively. The R2 values decreased slightly to 0.69 and 0.73 if individual stations were considered. However, the values decreased significantly to 0.40 and 0.51 for 3-hourly rainfalls, indicating the strong influence of the transient features in producing the heavier rainfall. In addition, the climatology model can only provide the average conditions. The characteristics in individual typhoons should be considered when applying the model in real-time operation. For example, the model could give reasonable cumulative rainfall amount at DSH before Nakri (2002) made landfall on Taiwan, but overestimated the rainfall after Nakri made landfall and weakened with significant reduction in convection.  相似文献   

11.
Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9?km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5?Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78?h and 72?h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12?h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm.  相似文献   

12.
Future variability of droughts in three Mediterranean catchments   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
Lopez-Bustins  Joan A.  Pascual  Diana  Pla  Eduard  Retana  Javier 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(3):1405-1429
This study investigates the intensity change in typhoons and storm surges surrounding the Korean Peninsula under global warming conditions as obtained from the MPI_ECHAM5 climate model using the A1B series. The authors use the Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function to estimate future background fields for typhoon simulations from twenty-first-century prediction results. A series of numerical experiments applies WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and POM (Prinston Ocean Model) models to simulate two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), and associated storm surges under real historical and future warming conditions. Applying numerical experiments to two typhoons, this study found that their central pressure dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future sea surface temperature (a warming of 3.9 °C for 100 years) over the East China Sea (Exp. 1). The associated enhancement of storm surge height ranged from 16 to 67 cm along the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula. However, when the study considered global warming conditions for other atmospheric variables such as sea-level pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind in the typhoon simulations (Exp. 2), the intensities of the two typhoons and their associated surge heights scarcely increased compared to the results of Exp. 1. Analyzing projected atmospheric variables, the authors found that air temperatures at the top of the storm around 200 hPa increased more than those at the surface in tropical and mid-latitudes. The reduced vertical temperature difference provided an unfavorable condition in the typhoon’s development even under conditions of global warming. This suggests that global warming may not always correlate with a large increase in the number of intense cyclones and/or an increase in associated storm surges.  相似文献   

13.
In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS.  相似文献   

14.
Ping Zhu 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):577-591
Hurricane wind damage constitutes the largest percentage of catastrophic insured losses in the US. Yet the complicated wind structures and their changes are not fully understood and, thus, have not been considered in current risk catastrophic models. To obtain realistic landfall hurricane surface winds, a large eddy simulation (LES) framework in a weather forecasting mode has been developed from a multiple nested Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model to explicitly simulate a spectrum of scales from large-scale background flow, hurricane vortex, mesoscale organizations, down to fine-scale turbulent eddies in a unified system. The unique WRF-LES enables the high resolution data to be generated in a realistic environment as a hurricane evolves. In this paper, a simulation of the landfalling Hurricane Katrina is presented to demonstrate various features of the WRF-LES. It shows that the localized damaging winds are caused by the large eddy circulations generated in the hurricane boundary layer. With a sufficient computational power, WRF-LES has the potential to be developed into the next generation operational public wind-field model for hurricane wind damage mitigation.  相似文献   

15.
假想台风下的波浪数值模拟是跨海桥隧工程风险评价的重要内容。风场的生成方法与不利路径的选择对于波浪模拟结果有极大影响。研究检验了在单一假想台风风场下进行波浪模拟的合理性,分析了台风路径对于工程区不同方向波浪影响的差异。通过构建珠江口台风浪数学模型,对采用风圈半径方法筛选出的104场台风路径,按300年一遇强度进行了蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明,对西人工岛处波浪场有重大影响的不利台风路径处于珠江口100km范围内。由此确定了体现不同特征的7条不利台风路径,为进一步研究极端天气条件下珠江口台风浪过程提供基础。研究成果为沿海河口地区易受台风影响的大型工程波浪要素分析提供方法支撑。  相似文献   

16.
Simulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) at hourly/weekly intervals and fine vertical resolution at the continental or coastal sites is challenging because of coarse horizontal resolution of global transport models. Here the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with atmospheric chemistry is adopted for simulating atmospheric CO2 (hereinafter WRF-CO2) in nonreactive chemical tracer mode. Model results at horizontal resolution of 27 × 27 km and 31 vertical levels are compared with hourly CO2 measurements from Tsukuba, Japan (36.05°N, 140.13 oE) at tower heights of 25 and 200 m for the entire year 2002. Using the wind rose analysis, we find that the fossil fuel emission signal from the megacity Tokyo dominates the diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variations observed at Tsukuba. Contribution of terrestrial biosphere fluxes is of secondary importance for CO2 concentration variability. The phase of synoptic scale variability in CO2 at both heights are remarkably well simulated the observed data (correlation coefficient >0.70) for the entire year. The simulations of monthly mean diurnal cycles are in better agreement with the measurements at lower height compared to that at the upper height. The modelled vertical CO2 gradients are generally greater than the observed vertical gradient. Sensitivity studies show that the simulation of observed vertical gradient can be improved by increasing the number of vertical levels from 31 in the model WRF to 37 (4 below 200 m) and using the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary scheme. These results have large implications for improving transport model simulation of CO2 over the continental sites.  相似文献   

17.
Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods.  相似文献   

18.
An accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast is very important for disaster management. Specialized numerical prediction models have been recently used to provide high-resolution temporal and special forecasts. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model is one of the emerging numerical models for tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates the performance of HWRF model during the post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar on the north Indian Ocean basin. The evaluation uses the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). Cyclone track, central pressure, and wind speed are covered on this evaluation. Generally, HWRF was able to predict the Nilofar track with track error less than 230 km within the first 66 h of forecast time span. HWRF predicted more intense tropical cyclone. It predicted the lowest central pressure to be 922 hPa while it reached 950 hPa according to IMD and 937 hPa according to JTWC. Wind forecast was better as it predicted maximum wind speed of 122 kt while it reached 110 and 115 kt according to IMD and JTWC, respectively.  相似文献   

19.
A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F3 on the Fujita-Pearson scale), which affected Rajkanika block of Kendrapara district of Orissa in the afternoon of March 31, 2009. The devastation caused by the tornado consumed 15 lives and left several injured with huge loss of property. The meteorological conditions that led to this tornado have been analyzed. An attempt is also made to simulate this rare event using Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system with a spatial resolution of 4 km for a period of 24 h, starting at 0000 UTC of March 31, 2009. The atmospheric settings resulted from synoptic, surface, upper air, satellite and radar echo studies were favorable for the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm activity over Rajkanika. The model-simulated meteorological parameters are consistent with each other, and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of the intense convective activity. The model has well captured the vertical motion. The core of the strongest winds is shown to be very close to the site of actual occurrence of the event. The wind speed is not in good agreement with the observation as it has shown the strongest wind of only 20 ms−1, against the estimated wind speed of 70 ms−1. The spatial distributions as well as intensity of rainfall rates are in good agreement with the observation as model simulated 35.4 mm against the observed rainfall of 41 mm over Chandbali. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high-resolution WRF–NMM model in simulation of severe thunderstorm events.  相似文献   

20.
Domain configuration and several physical parameterization settings such as planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection, and ocean–atmosphere surface flux parameterizations can play significant roles in numerical prediction of tropical cyclones. The present study focuses to improve the prediction of the TC Gonu by investigating the sensitivity of simulations to mentioned configurations with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. The experiments for domain design sensitivity with 27 km resolution has been shown moving the domains towards the east improve the results, due to better account for the large-scale process. The fixed and movable nests on a 9-km grid were considered separately within the coarse domain and their results showed that despite salient improvement in simulated intensity, an accuracy reduction in simulated track was observed. Increasing horizontal resolution to 3 km incredibly reduced the simulated intensity accuracy when compared to 27 km resolution. Thereafter, different initial conditions were experimented and the results have shown that the cyclone of 1000 hPa sea level pressure is the best simulation initial condition in predicting the track and intensity for cyclone Gonu. The sensitivity of simulations to ocean–atmosphere surface-flux parameterizations on a 9-km grid showed the combination of ‘Donelan scheme’ for momentum exchanges along with ‘Large and Pond scheme’ for heat and moisture exchanges provide the best prediction for cyclone Gonu intensity. The combination of YSU and MYJ PBL scheme with KF convection for prediction of track and the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection for prediction of intensity are found to have better performance than the other combinations. These 22 sensitivity experiments also implicitly lead us to the conclusion that each particular forecast aspect of TC (e.g., track, intensity, etc.) will require its own special design.  相似文献   

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