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1.
— Tsunamis are generated by displacement or motion of large volumes of water. While there are several documented cases of tsunami generation by volcanic eruptions and landslides, most observed tsunamis are attributed to earthquakes. Kinematic models of tsunami generation by earthquakes — where specified fault size and slip determine seafloor and sea-surface vertical motion — quantitatively explain far-field tsunami wave records. On the other hand, submarine landslides in subduction zones and other tectonic settings can generate large tsunamis that are hazardous along near-source coasts. Furthermore, the ongoing exploration of the oceans has found evidence for large paleo-landslides in many places, not just subduction zones. Thus, we want to know the relative contribution of faulting and landslides to tsunami generation. For earthquakes, only a small fraction of the minimum earthquake energy (less than 1% for typical parameter choices for shallow underthrusting earthquakes) can be converted into tsunami wave energy; yet, this is enough energy to generate terrible tsunamis. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave generation and landslide motion interact in a dynamic coupling. The dynamic problem of a 2-D translational slider block on a constant-angle slope can be solved using a Green's function approach for the wave transients. The key result is that the largest waves are generated when the ratio of initial water depth above the block to downslope vertical drop of the block H 0 /W sin δ is less than 1. The conversion factor of gravitational energy into tsunami wave energy varies from 0% for a slow-velocity slide in deep water, to about 50% for a fast-velocity slide in shallow water and a motion abruptly truncated. To compare maximum tsunami wave amplitudes in the source region, great earthquakes produce amplitudes of a few meters at a wavelength fixed by the fault width of 100 km or so. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave heights — as measured by b, block height — are small for most of the parameter regime. However, for low initial dynamic friction and values of H 0 /W sin δ less than 1, tsunami wave heights in the downslope and upslope directions reach b and b/4, respectively.Wavelengths of these large waves scale with block width. For significant submarine slides, the value of b can range from meters up to the kilometer scale. Thus, the extreme case of efficient tsunami generation by landslides produces dramatic hazards scenarios.  相似文献   

2.
采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考.   相似文献   

3.
The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.  相似文献   

4.
Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than MW7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention.  相似文献   

5.
Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M s and M w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).  相似文献   

6.
渤海海域历史上发生过地震诱发海啸吗?   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
历史文献中有许多关于渤海"海溢"的记录,但"海溢"是否就是现代意义上的海啸还存在疑问,而且渤海海域基本不存在发生重大海啸的海沟型地震构造背景,因此,渤海地区是否发生过海啸的争论从未停止.本文在分析历史地震和古籍资料的基础上,通过数值模拟分析历史地震引发海啸的可能性,结合对渤海沿岸海啸堆积物的地质调查,认为渤海海域历史上基本没有发生过破坏性海啸事件,即使存在过海啸,到岸浪高也不会高于0.5 m,而且仅限于东营—潍坊一带.  相似文献   

7.
Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.  相似文献   

8.
We calculated the expected impact on the Italian coast of the Adriatic Sea of a large set of tsunamis resulting from potential earthquakes generated by major fault zones. Our approach merges updated knowledge on the regional tectonics and scenario-like calculations of expected tsunami impact. We selected six elongated potential source zones. For each of them we determined a Maximum Credible Earthquake and the associated Typical Fault, described by its size, geometry and kinematics. We then let the Typical Fault float along strike of its parent source zone and simulated all tsunamis it could generate. Simulations are based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. For each run we calculated the wavefields at specified simulation times and the maximum water height field (above mean sea level), then generated travel-time maps and maximum water height profiles along the target coastline. Maxima were also classified in a three-level code of expected tsunami threat. We found that the southern portion of Apulia facing Albania and the Gargano promontory are especially prone to the tsunami threat. We also found that some bathymetric features are crucial in determining the focalization-defocalization of tsunami energy. We suggest that our results be taken into account in the design of early-warning strategies.  相似文献   

9.
Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua.  相似文献   

10.
Sumatra tsunami: lessons from modeling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The need for the combination of seismic data with real-time wave height information for an effective prediction of tsunami impact is emphasized in the paper. A preliminary, but comprehensive study of arrival times, wave heights and run-up values at a number of locations and tide gage stations throughout the Indian Ocean seaboard is presented. Open ocean wave height data from satellite observations are analyzed and used in the reconstruction of a tsunami source mechanism for the December 26, 2004 event. The reconstructed source is then used to numerically estimate tsunami impact along the Indian Ocean seaboard, including wave height, and arrival times at 12 tide gage stations, and inundation at 3 locations on the coast of India. The December 2004, as well as the March 28, 2005 tsunamis are investigated and their differences in terms of tsunami generation are analyzed and presented as a clear example of the need for both, seismic and real-time tsunami data for a reliable tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

11.
A large number of breakwaters have been constructed along coasts to protect humans and infrastructures from tsunamis.There is a risk that foundation soils of these structures may liquefy,or partially liquefy during the earthquake preceding a tsunami,which would greatly reduce the structures’capacity to resist the tsunami.It is necessary to consider not only the soil’s liquefaction behavior due to earthquake motions but also its post-liquefaction behavior because this behavior will affect the breakwater’s capacity to resist an incoming tsunami.In this study,numerical tests based on a sophisticated constitutive model and a soil-water coupled finite element method are used to predict the mechanical behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils.Two real breakwaters subjected to two different seismic excitations are examined through numerical simulation.The simulation results show that,earthquakes affect not only the immediate behavior of breakwaters and the surrounding soils but also their long-term settlements due to post-earthquake consolidation.A soil profile with thick clayey layers beneath liquefied soil is more vulnerable to tsunami than a soil profile with only sandy layers.Therefore,quantitatively evaluating the seismic behavior of breakwaters and surrounding soils is important for the design of breakwater structures to resist tsunamis.  相似文献   

12.
A typical model of the source of a tsunami (“macroseismic source”) is suggested for use in approximate estimation of maximum tsunami height using straightforward numerical modeling. In this paper the model is tested using three actual events: the 1952 North Kuril Is., 1971 Moneron, and 1994 Shikotan earthquakes, which excited considerable tsunamis at Russia’s Far East coasts. Comparison of the maximum tsunami runup values as obtained in numerical experiments with observations of actual tsunamis showed that the numerical model proposed here is suitable for crude estimation of tsunami runup and tsunami waiting times for coastal population centers in the near zone of a tsunami source.  相似文献   

13.
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.  相似文献   

14.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.  相似文献   

15.
The relation between tsunamis and sea-bottom deformations associated with the Kurile Islands earthquake of 1969 and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of 1968 is studied on the basis of a fairly complete set of seismological and tsunami data. The seismic results are included in the calculation of static crustal deformations. The calculated deformations are compared with the tsunami source area as obtained by the inverse refraction diagram, the first motion of tsunami waves, and the height of the sea-level disturbance at the source. It is found that such deformations as predicted by the seismic results can quantitatively explain the source parameters of tsunamis. These findings strongly favor the idea that tsunamis are generated by tectonic deformations rather than by large submarine landslides and slumps. This conclusion is supported by additional analyses for the 1964 Niigata, 1944 Tonankai, 1933 Sanriku earthquakes. For the 1946 Nankaido earthquake, the source deformation responsible for the tsunami generation is of much greater magnitude than that for seismic waves.  相似文献   

16.
The tsunamigenic earthquake (Mw?=?8.1) that occurred on 29 September 2009 at 17:48 UTC offshore of the Samoa archipelago east of the Tonga trench represents an example of the so-called ??outer-rise?? earthquakes. The areas most affected were the south coasts of Western and American Samoa, where almost 200 people were killed and run-up heights were measured in excess of 5?m at several locations along the coast. Moreover, tide gauge records showed a maximum peak-to-peak height of about 3.5?m near Pago Pago (American Samoa) and of 1.5?m offshore of Apia (Western Samoa). In this work, different fault models based on the focal mechanism solutions proposed by Global CMT and by USGS immediately after the 2009 Samoan earthquake are tested by comparing the near-field recorded signals (three offshore DART buoys and two coastal tide gauges) and the synthetic signals provided by the numerical simulations. The analysis points out that there are lights and shadows, in the sense that none of the computed tsunamis agrees satisfactorily with all the considered signals, although some of them reproduce some of the records quite well. This ??partial agreement?? and ??partial disagreement?? are analysed in the perspective of tsunami forecast and of Tsunami Early Warning System strategy.  相似文献   

17.
The 27 December 1722 Algarve earthquake destroyed a large area in southern Portugal generating a local tsunami that inundated the shallow areas of Tavira. It is unclear whether its source was located onshore or offshore and, in any case, what was the tectonic source responsible for the event. We analyze available historical information concerning macroseismicity and the tsunami to discuss the most probable location of the source. We also review available seismotectonic knowledge of the offshore region close to the probable epicenter, selecting a set of four candidate sources. We simulate tsunamis produced by these candidate sources assuming that the sea bottom displacement is caused by a compressive dislocation over a rectangular fault, as given by the half-space homogeneous elastic approach, and we use numerical modeling to study wave propagation and run-up. We conclude that the 27 December 1722 Tavira earthquake and tsunami was probably generated offshore, close to 37°01′N, 7°49′W.  相似文献   

18.
The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1?C8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7?m and 8?m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.  相似文献   

19.
— The unusual tsunami generated by the July 17, 1998 Papua New Guinea earthquake was investigated on the basis of various geophysical observations, including seismological data, tsunami waveform records, and on-land and submarine surveys. The tsunami source models were constructed for seismological high-angle and low-angle faults, splay fault, and submarine slumps. Far-field and near-field tsunamis computed from these models were compared with the recorded waveforms in and around Japan and the measured heights along the coast around Sissano Lagoon, respectively. In order to reproduce the far-field tsunami waveforms, small sources such as splay fault or submarine slump alone were not enough, and a seismological fault model was required. Relocated aftershock distribution and observed coastal subsidence were preferable for the low-angle fault, but the low-angle fault alone could not reproduce the large near-field tsunamis. The low-angle fault with additional source, possibly a submarine slump, is the most likely source of the 1998 tsunami, although other possibilities cannot be excluded. Computations from different source models showed that the far-field tsunami amplitudes are proportional to the displaced water volume at the source, and the comparison with the observed tsunami amplitudes indicated that the displaced water volume at the 1998 tsunami source was ～0.6 km3. The near-filed tsunami heights, on the other hand, are determined by the potential energy of displaced water, and the comparison with the observed heights showed that the potential energy was ～2 × 1012 J.  相似文献   

20.
The stratigraphy of tsunami deposits along the Japan Sea, southwest Hokkaido, northern Japan, reveals tsunami recurrences in this particular area. Sandy tsunami deposits are preserved in small valley plains, whereas gravelly deposits of possible tsunami origin are identified in surficial soils covering a Holocene marine terrace and a slope talus. At least five horizons of tsunami events can be defined in the Okushiri Island, the youngest of which immediately overlies the Ko‐d tephra layer (1640 AD) and was likely formed by the historical Oshima‐Ohshima tsunami in 1741 AD. The four older tsunami deposits, dated using accelerator mass spectrometry 14C, were formed at around the 12th century, 1.5–1.6, 2.4–2.6, and 2.8–3.1 ka, respectively. Tsunami sand beds of the 1741 AD and circa 12th century events are recognized in the Hiyama District of Hokkaido Island, but the older tsunami deposits are missing. The deposits of these two tsunamis are found together at the same sites and distributed in regions where wave heights of the 1993 tsunami (Hokkaido Nansei‐oki earthquake, Mw = 7.7) were less than 3 m. Thus, the 12th century tsunami waves were possibly generated near the south of Okushiri Island, whereas the 1993 tsunami was generated towards the north of the island. The estimated recurrence intervals of paleotsunamis, 200–1100 years with an average of 500 years, likely represents the recurrence interval of large earthquakes which would have occurred along several active faults offshore of southwest Hokkaido.  相似文献   

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