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1.
根据构造相似条件分析,琉球海沟与日本海沟、智利海沟、印尼巽他海沟一样具备发生9级罕遇超巨大地震的可能。在对近几年来全球发生的超巨大地震参数及构造对比分析的基础上,设定琉球海沟9.0级地震参数,并将其引发的海啸进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,该地震可引发初始波高为8m的海啸,台湾东北部半小时后遭受10m以上海啸,3~4小时左右传至浙南、闽北沿岸,近岸各处波高在1~2m;5小时左右传至浙北、粤北沿岸,浙江近岸各处波高在2m左右,广东沿海、台湾海峡由于台湾岛的正面阻挡,海啸波高低于50cm;8小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波高约1m。海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关,我国东南海域地形变化复杂、海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,模拟结果可能比实际海啸偏小。我国沿海地区分布着不少已建和在建的核电厂,在核电设计时未考虑海啸,一旦发生这种罕遇地震海啸则影响不可忽视,尤其是若与风暴潮、天文大潮叠加则可能出现严重后果。由于核电安全要求万无一失,故须制订有效预警和应对措施。 相似文献
2.
Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than MW7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention. 相似文献
3.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m. 相似文献
4.
Tokutaro Hatori 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):471-479
Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M
s
=6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis. 相似文献
5.
采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考. 相似文献
6.
本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域. 相似文献
7.
香港海啸监测及警报系统的发展 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
地震监测、海啸数值模拟和海平面监测是监测和预报海啸的主要工具。为了有效监测南海北部可能发生的地震海啸,香港天文台（HKO）正在香港筹建一个宽频地震站,同时通过太平洋海啸警报及减灾系统（PTWS）的框架取得美国加州综合地震网（CISN）显示系统的实时地震信息,并通过世界气象组织（WM0）的全球通信系统（GTS）接收南海和西北太平洋的验潮站和海啸浮标数据以监测海面的波动情况。香港天文台通过联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）政府间海洋学委员会（IOC）取得海啸漫滩模式交换计划（TIME）下的海啸数值模式,把香港本地的高分辨率水深和地形数据融合在模式之内,并利用这个模式计算南海多处地区在不同地震情景下的海啸传播,为海啸预报提供重要的参考数据。 相似文献
8.
台湾及其邻近地区的海啸 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
台湾位于环太平洋地震带,不仅陆上地震频繁,发生在海外的地震也不少,但其中仅有极少数的海底地震曾引起海啸。然而,由于台湾北部及西部水深极浅,近距离海底地震所引起的海啸有可能会造成重大灾害,对１８６７年发生在台湾基隆附近的海啸曾造成数百人死伤。 相似文献
9.
Ken Yanagisawa Fumihiko Imamura Tsutomu Sakakiyama Tadashi Annaka Tomoyoshi Takeda Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(2-3):565-576
The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation
and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are
examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation
of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular
site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning
of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated
by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in
the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability
as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in
the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the
standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element
tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors
in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical
tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the
site. 相似文献
10.
L. J. Ruff 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2003,160(10-11):2155-2176
— Tsunamis are generated by displacement or motion of large volumes of water. While there are several documented cases of tsunami generation by volcanic eruptions and landslides, most observed tsunamis are attributed to earthquakes. Kinematic models of tsunami generation by earthquakes — where specified fault size and slip determine seafloor and sea-surface vertical motion — quantitatively explain far-field tsunami wave records. On the other hand, submarine landslides in subduction zones and other tectonic settings can generate large tsunamis that are hazardous along near-source coasts. Furthermore, the ongoing exploration of the oceans has found evidence for large paleo-landslides in many places, not just subduction zones. Thus, we want to know the relative contribution of faulting and landslides to tsunami generation. For earthquakes, only a small fraction of the minimum earthquake energy (less than 1% for typical parameter choices for shallow underthrusting earthquakes) can be converted into tsunami wave energy; yet, this is enough energy to generate terrible tsunamis. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave generation and landslide motion interact in a dynamic coupling. The dynamic problem of a 2-D translational slider block on a constant-angle slope can be solved using a Green's function approach for the wave transients. The key result is that the largest waves are generated when the ratio of initial water depth above the block to downslope vertical drop of the block H 0 /W sin δ is less than 1. The conversion factor of gravitational energy into tsunami wave energy varies from 0% for a slow-velocity slide in deep water, to about 50% for a fast-velocity slide in shallow water and a motion abruptly truncated. To compare maximum tsunami wave amplitudes in the source region, great earthquakes produce amplitudes of a few meters at a wavelength fixed by the fault width of 100 km or so. For submarine landslides, tsunami wave heights — as measured by b, block height — are small for most of the parameter regime. However, for low initial dynamic friction and values of H 0 /W sin δ less than 1, tsunami wave heights in the downslope and upslope directions reach b and b/4, respectively.Wavelengths of these large waves scale with block width. For significant submarine slides, the value of b can range from meters up to the kilometer scale. Thus, the extreme case of efficient tsunami generation by landslides produces dramatic hazards scenarios. 相似文献
11.
A. A. Poplavskii D. E. Zolotukhin V. N. Khramushin 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2012,6(1):58-64
A typical model of the source of a tsunami (“macroseismic source”) is suggested for use in approximate estimation of maximum
tsunami height using straightforward numerical modeling. In this paper the model is tested using three actual events: the
1952 North Kuril Is., 1971 Moneron, and 1994 Shikotan earthquakes, which excited considerable tsunamis at Russia’s Far East
coasts. Comparison of the maximum tsunami runup values as obtained in numerical experiments with observations of actual tsunamis
showed that the numerical model proposed here is suitable for crude estimation of tsunami runup and tsunami waiting times
for coastal population centers in the near zone of a tsunami source. 相似文献
12.
Emile A. Okal Costas E. Synolakis Nikos Kalligeris 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(6-7):1153-1173
We present 14 scenarios of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea and its adjoining basins, the Sulu and Sulawezi Seas. The sources consist of earthquake dislocations inspired by the the study of historical events, either recorded (since 1900) or described in historical documents going back to 1604. We consider worst-case scenarios, where the size of the earthquake is not limited by the largest known event, but merely by the dimension of the basin over which a coherent fault may propagate. While such scenarios are arguably improbable, they may not be impossible, and as such must be examined. For each scenario, we present a simulation of the tsunami??s propagation in the marine basin, exclusive of its interaction with the coastline. Our results show that the South China, Sulu and Sulawezi Seas make up three largely independent basins where tsunamis generated in one basin do not leak into another. Similarly, the Sunda arc provides an efficient barrier to tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the shallow continental shelves in the Java Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the western part of the South China Sea significantly dampen the amplitude of the waves. The eastern shores of the Malay Peninsula are threatened only by the greatest??and most improbable??of our sources, a mega-earthquake rupturing all of the Luzon Trench. We also consider two models of underwater landslides (which can be triggered by smaller events, even in an intraplate setting). These sources, for which there is both historical and geological evidence, could pose a significant threat to all shorelines in the region, including the Malay Peninsula. 相似文献
13.
Mechanism of tsunami earthquakes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hiroo Kanamori 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1972,6(5):346-359
14.
15.
Focal depth,magnitude, and frequency distribution of earthquakes along oceanic trenches 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
O. S. Hammed O. I. Popoola A. A. Adetoyinbo M. O. Awoyemi G. O. Badmus O. B. Ohwo 《地震科学（英文版）》2013,26(2):75-82
The occurrence of earthquakes in oceanic trenches can pose a tsunami threat to lives and properties in active seismic zones. Therefore, the knowledge of focal depth, magnitude, and time distribution of earthquakes along the trenches is needed to investigate the future occurrence of earthquakes in the zones. The oceanic trenches studied, were located from the seismicity map on: latitude +51° to +53°and longitude-160° to 176°(Aleutian Trench), latitude+40° to +53° and longitude +148° to +165°(Japan Trench), and latitude-75° to-64° and longitude –15° to+30°(Peru–Chile Trench). The following features of seismic events were considered: magnitude distribution, focal depth distribution, and time distribution of earthquake. The results obtained in each trench revealed that the earthquakes increased with time in all the regions. This implies that the lithospheric layer is becoming more unstable. Thus, tectonic stress accumulation is increasing with time. The rate of increase in earthquakes at the Peru–Chile Trench is higher than that of the Japan Trench and the Aleutian Trench. This implies that the convergence of lithospheric plates is higher in the Peru–Chile Trench. Deep earthquakes were observed across all the trenches. The shallow earthquakes were more prominent than intermediate and deep earthquakes in all thetrenches. The seismic events in the trenches are mostly of magnitude range 3.0–4.9. This magnitude range may indicate the genesis of mild to moderate tsunamis in the trench zone in near future once sufficient slip would occur with displacement of water column. 相似文献
16.
Geologic Setting, Field Survey and Modeling of the Chimbote, Northern Peru, Tsunami of 21 February 1996 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J. Bourgeois C. Petroff H. Yeh V. Titov C. E. Synolakis B. Benson J. Kuroiwa J. Lander E. Norabuena 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,154(3-4):513-540
—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake." 相似文献
17.
We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated
time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence
of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally
distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach
is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio,
r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next
earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three
characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20
years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach
applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America
region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability
theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than
in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic
regions of the world. 相似文献
18.
The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 1022 Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis. 相似文献
19.
A. A. Poplavskii L. N. Poplavskaya A. I. Spirin Yu. Yu. Permikin T. V. Nagornykh 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2009,3(1):59-67
We suggest supplementing the MLH magnitude with the threshold (M thr) values of MPV, MSH, and MLH magnitudes (Russian scales), as well as M S and M W now in wide international use, for issuing tsunami alerts for hazards emanating from the main tsunamigenic zones of the Pacific Ocean. Relations are given to connect the MLH to these magnitudes. A comparative analysis applied to a catalog of large (M ≥ 6) earthquakes in the North Pacific and to the associated tsunami catalog gave the probabilities of false alerts and unpredicted tsunamis as functions of the threshold magnitude value (M thr). A two-step decision rule is proposed to issue tsunami alerts due to the tsunamigenic zones situated close to the Far East coast of Russia. 相似文献
20.
V. K. Gusiakov 《Seismic Instruments》2011,47(3):203-214
Re-evaluation of magnitude-geographical criterion of tsunami prediction is one of the main directions of improvement of the
tsunami warning service acting on the coast of the Russian Far East. The main directions of this work are a careful analysis
of the tsunami warnings issued by the service during the period of its operation (since 1958), determining of reasons for
false alarms and missed warnings, delineation of tsunamigenic areas threatening the Far East coast of Russia, optimal selection
of magnitude thresholds for each tsunamigenic zone, evaluation of the expected ratio between real/missed/false warnings, determination
of the degree of influence of other source parameters (focus depth, source mechanism), and evaluation of probability of occurrence
for nonseismic tsunamis. The present paper considers the results of operations for prediction of tsunamis from submarine earthquakes
that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, Sea of Japan, and Sea of Okhotsk during the last 52 years. 相似文献