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针对东海冲绳海槽地区的地震地质背景,对东海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了预研究. 假设了冲绳海槽在发生8.5级大地震,断层错距高达15 m的极端地震情况引发的海啸对中国东部沿海地区的影响. 初步数值模拟结果表明,该地震引发的海啸的最大初始波高为4.3 m,4小时左右传至浙江沿岸,近岸各处波高为1——2 m,其中局部地区波高为2.4 m;约7——8小时靠近上海海岸线（若震源在中冲绳海槽地区,海啸传到上海最快大约7小时）,近岸波高约为1 m. 近岸区域地形变化复杂,海岛密布,局部地形条件可能会很大地影响实际各地点海啸波高,加上海啸在岸边爬高及港湾效应,估计波高还会升高. 给出了冲绳海槽南、中、北部发生潜在地震海啸的传播等时图. 笔者在东海设置了3个地震及海啸监测站,基于海啸模拟结果绘制了监测站处的海啸随时间演化曲线,分析了预研究成果对海啸预警可能发挥的作用. 相似文献
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基于日本南海海槽地震活动性和历史海啸事件记载的分析,本文对日本南海海槽发生MW9.1罕遇地震情况下的海啸进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明:该地震可引发初始波幅约10 m的海啸,6个小时后传至浙江沿海,近岸各处波幅为1—2 m;8个小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波幅约2 m,受地形影响局地爬高至近3 m;11个小时后抵达苏北黄海沿岸,预计波幅普遍在1 m左右.海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关.我国近岸海域地形变化复杂,海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,该模拟结果可能比实际传播到近岸时偏小,因此综合评估日本海啸影响我国华东地区的规模m可达1—2级左右.一旦日本南海发生罕遇地震对我国的影响不容忽视,尤其遇上风暴潮与天文大潮叠加,则可能会造成一定程度的海啸灾害. 相似文献
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历史文献中有许多关于渤海"海溢"的记录,但"海溢"是否就是现代意义上的海啸还存在疑问,而且渤海海域基本不存在发生重大海啸的海沟型地震构造背景,因此,渤海地区是否发生过海啸的争论从未停止.本文在分析历史地震和古籍资料的基础上,通过数值模拟分析历史地震引发海啸的可能性,结合对渤海沿岸海啸堆积物的地质调查,认为渤海海域历史上基本没有发生过破坏性海啸事件,即使存在过海啸,到岸浪高也不会高于0.5 m,而且仅限于东营—潍坊一带. 相似文献
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采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考. 相似文献
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南海东南边缘的马尼拉海沟是国际上公认具有发生破坏性地震海啸条件的危险地区,由于南海没有大面积的岛屿阻隔海啸传播,如果在马尼拉海沟发生大地震引发海啸,那么将对广东省漫长的海岸线造成严重破坏。广东省南海地震海啸监测预警系统建设在广东省地震速报系统和国家地震自动速报备份系统的基础上,由地震速报、震源机制快速计算、海啸数值模拟计算等模块组成,对南海地震海啸进行实时监测,提供海啸波浪到达海岸线的估计时刻和最大海浪高度,提供预警信息等社会公共服务。 相似文献
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本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域. 相似文献
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2004年12月26日苏门答腊岛安达曼海附近海域发生的9．0级地震和2005年3月28日苏门答腊岛明打威群岛北附近海域的8．7级地震,在构造环境、震级、震源深度、地震类型都相似的情况下,为何前者引发海啸,后者不引发的海啸？对此进行了对比分析,认为9．0级地震发生时,在其震源体附近的两板块相交的海沟两侧陡坡蕴育着滑坡体或和崩塌体（或者两者都有）,9．0级地震发生时,强烈的地震波,促使滑坡体的滑动或崩塌体的崩塌,推压和扰动海水,引发诲啸。而8．7级地震发生时、在其震源体附近的两板块相交的海沟两侧陡坡无滑坡体或和崩塌体,或先存滑坡体或崩塌体在9．0级地震发生时已滑坡或崩塌殆尽,当8.7地震发生时,无滑坡体滑动或崩塌体崩塌,不可能对海水有较大的扰动,故不可能引发海啸。 相似文献
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Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper,we present a numerical simulation of the propagation of a tsunami in the East China Sea,which might be induced by a hypothetical M8.5 earthquake in Okinawa Trough. Our results show that the initial maxi-mum wave height of tsunami could reach as high as 4.3 m for the hypothetical earthquake. It would take 3.5～4 hours for the tsunami to propagate to the coast of Zhejiang Province,and 7～8 hours to the near-shore of Shanghai. The peak tsunami height could be up to about 2 m in the coast of Zhejiang Province. Based on the numerical ex-periments,we plot the arrival time contours of tsunami in East China Sea and time history curves on the three ob-servational stations,and discussed the significance of the pre-analysis. 相似文献
12.
J. J. Wijetunge 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(4):593-622
This paper employs a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of
the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004, to identify and interpret the factors that have contributed to the
significant spatial variability of the level of tsunami impact along the coastal belt of the eastern province of Sri Lanka.
The model results considered in the present analysis include the distribution of the amplitude of the tsunami and the pattern
of wave propagation over the continental shelf off the east coast, while the field data examined comprise the maximum water
levels measured at or near the shoreline, the horizontal inundation distances and the number of housing and other buildings
damaged. The computed maximum amplitude of the tsunami at water points nearest the shoreline along the east coast shows considerable
variation ranging from 2.2 m to 11.4 m with a mean value of 5.7 m; moreover, the computed amplitudes agree well with the available
field measurements. We also show that the shelf bathymetry off the east coast, particularly the submarine canyons at several
locations, significantly influences the near-shore transformation of tsunami waves, and consequently, the spatial variation
of the maximum water levels along the coastline. The measured values of inundation also show significant variation along the
east coast and range from 70 m to 4560 m with a median value of 700 m. Our analyses of field data also show the dominant influence
of the coastal topography and geomorphology on the extent of tsunami inundation. Furthermore, the measured inundation distances
indicate no apparent correlation with the computed tsunami heights at the respective locations. We also show that both the
computed tsunami heights and the measured inundation distances for the east coast closely follow the log-normal statistical
distribution. 相似文献
13.
A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake
Huimin Helen Jing Huai Zhang David A. Yuen Yaolin Shi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):129-138
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view. 相似文献
14.
H. L. Davies J. M. Davies R. C. B. Perembo W. Y. Lus 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2003,160(10-11):1895-1922
— On the evening of 17 July 1998, on th e Aitape Coast of Papua New Guinea, a strongly felt earthquake was followed some 10–25 minutes later by a destructive tsunami. The tsunami comprised three waves, each estimated to be about 4 m high. The second of the three waves rose to a height of 10–15 m above sea level after it had crossed the shoreline and caused most damage. Maximum wave heights and the greatest damage were recorded along a 14-km sector of coast centered on Sissano Lagoon. In this sector the wavefronts moved from east to west along the coast; all structures were destroyed, and in the two main villages 20–40 percent of the population was killed. Partial destruction extended 23 km to the southeast and 8 km to the northwest, and effects of the tsunami were felt as far as 250 km to the west–northwest, beyond the international border. More than 1600 people are known to have died, with some estimates as high as 2200; 1000 were seriously injured, and 10,000 survivors were displaced. This paper presents information from interviews with eye-witnesses and from mapping of damage and inundation, and includes new information on the height, shape and timing of the waves; on the possible escape of petroleum and other gases from beneath the seafloor before and during the tsunami; on unusual sound effects that preceded the waves, and lighting effects that followed; on possible deep circulation (to 250 m) of sea water in the waves; on subsidence of the order of 50–70 cm at the coastal sand barrier; and on the resilience and potential protective capacity of certain species of trees. Eye-witness accounts indicate that the tsunami reached the shore at between 09:00 and 09:08 UT, which is earlier than is proposed in published models of the timing and location of the source of the tsunami. 相似文献
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Toshihiko Shimamoto Akito Tsutsumi Eiko Kawamoto Masahiro Miyawaki Hiroshi Sato 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):665-691
Detailed field work at Okushiri Island and along the southwest coast of Hokkaido has revealed quantitatively (1) the advancing direction of tsunami on land, (2) the true tsunami height (i.e., height of tsunami, excluding its splashes, as measured from the ground) and (3) the flow velocity of tsunami on land, in heavily damaged areas. When a Japanese wooden house is swept away by tsunami, bolts that tie the house to its concrete foundation resist until the last moment and become bent towards the direction of the house being carried away. The orientations of more than 850 of those bent bolts and iron pipes (all that can be measured, mostly at Okushiri Island) and fell-down direction of about 400 trees clearly display how tsunami behaved on land and caused serious damage at various places. The true tsunami height was estimated by using several indicators, such as broken tree twigs and a window pane. The flow velocity of tsunami on land was determined by estimating the hydrodynamic force exerted on a bent handrail and a bent-down guardrail by the tsunami throughin situ strength tests.Contrary to the wide-spread recognition after the tsunami hazard, our results clearly indicate that only a few residential areas (i.e., Monai, eastern Hamatsumae, and a small portion at northern Aonae, all on Okushiri Island) were hit by a huge tsunami, with true heights reaching 10 m. Southern Aonae was completely swept away by tsunami that came directly from the focal region immediately to the west. The true tsunami height over the western sea wall of southern Aonae was estimated as 3 to 4 m. Northern Aonae also suffered severe damage due to tsunami that invaded from the corner zone of the sand dune (8 m high) and tide embankment at the northern end of the Aonae Harbor. This corner apparently acted as a tsunami amplifier, and tide embankment or breakwater can be quite dangerous when tsunami advances towards the corner it makes with the coast. The nearly complete devastation of Inaho at the northern end of Okushiri Island underscored the danger of tsunami whose propagation direction is parallel to the coast, since such tsunami waves tend to be amplified and tide embankment or breakwater is constructed low towards the coast at many harbors or fishing ports. Tsunami waves mostly of 2 to 4 m in true height swept away Hamatsumae on the southeast site of Okushiri Island where there were no coastal structures. Coastal structures were effective in reducing tsunami hazard at many sites. The maximum flow velocity at northern Aonae was estimated as 10 to 18 m/s (Tsutsumi
et al., 1994), and such a high on-land velocity of tsunami near shore is probably due to the rapid shallowing of the deep sea near the epicentral region towards Okushiri Island. If the advancing direction, true height, and flow velocity of tsunami can be predicted by future analyses of tsunami generation and progagation, the analyses will be a powerful tool for future assessment of tsunami disasters, including the identification of blind spots in the tsunami hazard reduction. 相似文献
16.
Field survey of the 1994 Mindoro Island,Philippines tsunami 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Fumihiko Imamura Costas E. Synolakis Edison Gica Vasily Titov Eddie Listanco Ho Jun Lee 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):875-890
This is a report of the field survey of the November 15, 1994 Mindoro Island, Philippines, tsunami generated by an earthquake (M=7.0) with a strike-slip motion. We will report runup heights from 54 locations on Luzon, Mindoro and other smaller islands in the Cape Verde passage between Mindoro and Luzon. Most of the damage was concentrated along the northern coast of Mindoro. Runup height distribution ranged 3–4 m at the most severely damaged areas and 2–4 in neighboring areas. The tsunami-affected area was limited to within 10 km of the epicenter. The largest recorded runup value of 7.3 m was measured on the southwestern coast of Baco Island while a runup of 6.1 m was detected on its northern coastline. The earthquake and tsunami killed 62 people, injured 248 and destroyed 800 houses. As observed in other recent tsunami disasters, most of the casualties were children. Nearly all eyewitnesses interviewed described the first wave as a leading-depression wave. Eyewitnesses reported that the main direction of tsunami propagation was SW in Subaang Bay, SE in Wawa and Calapan, NE on Baco Island and N on Verde Island, suggesting that the tsunami source area was in the southern Pass of Verde Island and that the wave propagated rapidly in all directions. The fault plane extended offshore to the N of Mindoro Island, with its rupture originating S of Verde Island and propagating almost directly south to the inland of Mindoro, thereby accounting for the relatively limited damage area observed on the N of Mindoro. 相似文献
17.
Yoshinobu Tsuji Hideo Matsutomi Fumihiko Imamura Minoru Takeo Yoshiaki Kawata Masafumi Matsuyama Tomoyuki Takahashi Sunarjo Prih Harjadi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):481-524
A field survey of the 1992 Flores Island earthquake tsunami was conducted during December 29, 1992 to January 5, 1993 along the north coast of the eastern part of Flores Island. We visited over 40 villages, measured tsunami heights, and interviewed the inhabitants. It was clarified that the first wave attacked the coast within five minutes at most of the surveyed villages. The crust was uplifted west of the Cape of Batumanuk, and subsided east of it. In the residential area of Wuring, which is located on a sand spit with ground height of 2 meters, most wooden houses built on stilts collapsed and 87 people were killed even though the tsunami height reached only 3.2 meters. In the two villages on Babi Island, the tsunami swept away all wooden houses and killed 263 of 1,093 inhabitants. Tsunami height at Riang-Kroko village on the northeastern end of Flores Island reached 26.2 meters and 137 of the 406 inhabitants were killed by the tsumani. Evidence of landslides was detected at a few points on the coast of Hading Bay, and the huge tsunami was probably formed by earthquake-induced landslides. The relationship between tsunami height and mortality was checked for seven villages. The efficiencies of trees arranged in front of coastal villages, and coral reefs in dissipating the tsunami energy are discussed. 相似文献
18.
2007年4月,为执行科技部科研院所社会公益课题 "中国沿海地区古海啸的定量研究",课题组部分成员访问了日本,并对日本东北地区宫崎县石卷海岸平原的海啸堆积物做了概略性的调查。2011年3月11日,该地区发生了9.0级大地震并引发海啸,造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。为了使人们对该地区过去的海啸历史有一个概略认识,并了解海啸堆积物的调查方法,对这次调查作一简要报道。这次调查揭示出3次海啸事件,最新一次发生在公元915年十和田火山喷发之前,对应于公元869年的贞观大海啸。 相似文献