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1.
A reliable estimate of rainfall recharge is essential for groundwater system managements. This study develops a method based on regression equations for estimating rainfall recharge at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate. The developed method (GR-I method) is generally efficient for estimating long-term regional recharge, as the computational procedures could be formulated and executed easily using Microsoft's Excel spreadsheet. More importantly, its application could be extended to sand textures different from the sand texture used in developing the regression equations. To evaluate its reliability, the method was applied to estimate monthly gross recharge percentages at the Changi reclaimed land. When ignoring the effect of rainfall clusters, the GR-I method was found to underestimate the monthly gross recharge percentages for those months with high monthly rainfall depths. By integrating the effect of rainfall clusters, the GR-I method yields reliable estimates of monthly gross recharge percentages. By including daily potential evaporation as an additional input variable, the Extended GR-I method was found to be not superior to the GR-I method, implying that soil moisture availability is the major governing factor for actual soil evaporation in the highly porous sand medium, instead of atmospheric demand represented by the potential evaporation rate. Using the GR-I method, the mean annual net recharge percentage of the study site was found to fall between 56·9 and 69·9%, which corresponds to a net recharge depth of 1073·8–1745·8 mm. Although the developed method provides a good alternative to other widely used methods, its recharge estimates still needs to be collaborated with estimates from other methods, as multiple techniques are highly recommended in any groundwater recharge estimations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Groundwater recharge studies are essential for investigating the feasibility of using the reclaimed lands in Singapore for subsurface storage and recovery of water. Through time‐series and spectral analyses, net recharge percentages and stress‐filtering characteristics at the reclaimed land were found to depend strongly on the stress transfer velocity, which was a combined function of rainfall pattern and vadose zone thickness. Based on stress transfer velocity, a theory was established to provide logical explanations for the rainfall–recharge relationship, the observed stress‐filtering characteristics and the recharge percentage characteristics at the unconfined sandy aquifer. Although the reclaimed land site has a lithollogically homogeneous soil profile, a non‐uniform recharge pattern was observed to be influenced pronouncedly by the uneven density distribution of bush grasses. Under a bare soil condition, significantly lower recharge percentages were observed for areas under the influence of offshore tides. The unconfined sandy aquifer appears to dampen out the wave propagation of offshore tides rapidly within a short distance from the tidal source, though it has a fairly straight shoreline and is created from highly compacted sand fills. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Recharge processes of karst aquifers are difficult to assess given their strong heterogeneity and the poorly known effect of vadose zone on infiltration. However, recharge assessment is crucial for the evaluation of groundwater resources. Moreover, the vulnerability of karst aquifers depends on vadose zone behaviour because it is the place where most contamination takes place. In this work, an in situ experimental approach was performed to identify and quantify flow and storage processes occurring in karst vadose zone. Cave percolation monitoring and dye tracing were used to investigate unsaturated zone hydrological processes. Two flow components (diffuse and quick) were identified and, respectively, account for 66% and 34% of the recharge. Quickflow was found to be the result of bypass phenomenon in vadose zone related to water saturation. We identify the role of epikarst as a shunting area, most of the storage in the vadose zone occurring via the diffuse flow component in low permeability zones. Relationship between rainfall intensity and transit velocity was demonstrated, with 5 times higher velocities for the quick recharge mode than the diffuse mode. Modelling approach with KarstMod software allowed to simulate the hybrid recharge through vadose zone and shows promising chances to properly assess the recharge processes in karst aquifer based on simple physical models.  相似文献   

4.
Zhou Y  Haitjema H 《Ground water》2012,50(5):799-803
Radial time-of-travel (TOT) capture zones have been evaluated for unconfined aquifers with and without recharge. The solutions of travel time for unconfined aquifers are rather complex and have been replaced with much simpler approximate solutions without significant loss of accuracy in most practical cases. The current "volumetric method" for calculating the radius of a TOT capture zone assumes no recharge and a constant aquifer thickness. It was found that for unconfined aquifers without recharge, the volumetric method leads to a smaller and less protective wellhead protection zone when ignoring drawdowns. However, if the saturated thickness near the well is used in the volumetric method a larger more protective TOT capture zone is obtained. The same is true when the volumetric method is used in the presence of recharge. However, for that case it leads to unreasonableness over the prediction of a TOT capture zone of 5 years or more.  相似文献   

5.
Over a period of 12 months, soil moisture content and potential was monitored in an annual‐grass‐dominated 20 ha catchment in order to determine flow paths leading to exfiltration at the catchment outlet. Water was found to enter the catchment valley either through flow originating in the slopes or through surface infiltration during rainfall events. Although subsurface flow from the slopes to the catchment outlet occurred throughout the year, surface recharge was restricted to a few events during the wet season. In the deeper saturated profile of the valley, flow was directed upwards along the valley edges and gradually became horizontal towards the central axis of the valley. During the peak of the rainfall season, horizontal flow close to the catchment outlet intercepted the gradually sloping surface, resulting in exfiltration. Plants influenced the hydrology of the catchment by removing moisture from the root zone during spring and early summer, resulting in evapotranspiration losses from the vadose zone. Heterogeneities within the valley soil were evident as variable‐permeability layers that resulted in a seasonally confined water table within the valley. This investigation shows that the vadose zone plays an important role in redistributing surface recharge and emphasizes the importance of accounting for effective moisture in low‐yielding catchments with ephemeral surface runoff. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The bomb tritium (3H) distribution patterns in the aquifer beneath an abandoned landfill at the Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Borden, Ontario, and in a sandy aquifer at Whiteshell Nuclear Research Establishments (WNRE) Pinawa, Manitoba, all in Canada, were delineated in great detail. A sampling and monitoring network of multilevel samplers and bundle piezometers were used. The directions of groundwater flow were established, and the boundary between the tritiated and non-tritiated zones of the two aquifers were closely demarcated. Using a cumulative mass balance method, the3H input mass into the aquifers was compared with the3H mass in groundwater storage to estimate the percentages of annual groundwater recharge from 1953 to 1978. Two recharge calculations for theeffective recharge zone and thetotal recharge area of the aquifers as established from the flownet analysis, and the distributions of dissolved geochemical constitutents showed that theeffective recharge zone calculations gave higher values of 30.6 cm/yr for CFB Borden and 20.1 cm/yr for WNRE while thetotal recharge areas gave lower values of 19.1 and 10.1 cm/yr for the Borden and WNRE aquifers respectively. The two recharge values provide possible minimum and maximum recharge estimates for the two study areas.  相似文献   

7.
The hydrology and water balance of megadunes and lakes have been investigated in the Badain Jaran Desert of China. Field observations and analyses of sand layer water content, field capacity, secondary salt content, and grain size reveal 3 types of important natural phenomenon: (a) vegetation bands on the leeward slope of the megadunes reflect the hydrological regime within the sandy vadose zone; (b) seepage, wet sand deposits, and secondary salt deposits indicate the pattern of water movement within the sandy vadose zone; (c) zones of groundwater seeps and descending springs around the lakes reflect the influence of the local topography on the hydrological regime of the megadunes. The seepage exposed on the sloping surface of the megadunes and gravity water contained within the sand layer confirm the occurrence of preferential flow within the vadose zone of the megadunes. Alternating layers of coarse and fine sand create the conditions for the formation of preferential flows. The preferential flows promote movement of water within the sand layer water that leads to deep penetration of water within the megadunes and ultimately to the recharging of groundwater and lake water. Our results indicate that a positive water balance promotes recharge of the megadunes, which depends on the high permeability of the megadune material, the shallow depth of the surface sand layer affected by evaporation, the occurrence of rainfall events exceeding 15 mm, and the sparse vegetation cover. Water balance estimates indicate that the annual water storage of the megadunes is about 7.5 mm, accounting for only 8% of annual precipitation; however, the shallow groundwater per unit area under the megadunes receives only 3.6% of annual precipitation, but it is still able to maintain a dynamic balance of the lake water. From a water budget perspective, the annual water storage in the megadunes is sufficient to serve as a recharge source for lake water, thereby enabling the long‐term persistence of the lakes. Overall, our findings demonstrate that precipitation is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in arid deserts.  相似文献   

8.
At an aviation gasoline spill site in Traverse City, Michigan, historical records indicate a positive correlation between significant rainfall events and increased concentrations of slightly soluble organic compounds in the monitoring wells of the site. To investigate the recharge effect on ground water quality due to infiltrating, water percolating past residual oil and into the saturated zone, an in situ infiltration experiment was performed at the site. Sampling cones were set at various depths below a circular test area, 13 feet (4 meters) in diameter. Rainfall was simulated by sprinkling the test area at a rate sufficiently low to prevent runoff. The sampling cones for soil-gas and ground water quality were installed in the unsaturated and saturated zones to observe the effects of the recharge process. At the time of the test, the water table was below the residual oil layer. The responses of the soil-gas and ground water quality were monitored during the recharge and drainage periods, which resulted from the sprinkling.
Infiltrated water was determined to have transported organic constituents of the residual oil, specifically benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and ortho-xylene (BTEX), into the ground water beneath the water table, elevating the aqueous concentrations of these constituents in the saturated zone. Soil-gas concentrations of the organic compounds in the unsaturated zone increased with depth and time after the commencement of infiltration. Reaeration of the unconfined aquifer via the infiltrated water was observed. It is concluded that water quality measurements are directly coupled to recharge events for the sandy type of aquifer with an overlying oil phase, which was studied in this work. Ground water sampling strategies and data analysis need to reflect the effect of recharge from precipitation on shallow, unconfined aquifers where an oil phase may be present.  相似文献   

9.
Soil and vadose zone profiles are used as an archive of changes in groundwater recharge and water quality following changes in land use in an area of the Loess Plateau of China. A typical rain‐fed loess‐terrace agriculture region in Hequan, Guyuan, is taken as an example, and multiple tracers (chloride mass balance, stable isotopes, tritium and water chemistry) are used to examine groundwater recharge mechanisms and to evaluate soil water chloride as an archive for recharge rate and water quality. Results show that groundwater recharge beneath natural uncultivated grassland, used as a baseline, is about 94–100 mm year?1 and that the time it takes for annual precipitation to reach water table through the thick unsaturated zone is from decades to hundreds of years (tritium free). This recharge rate is 2–3 orders of magnitude more than in the other semiarid areas with similar annual rainfall but with deep‐rooted vegetation and relatively high temperature. Most of the water that eventually becomes recharge originally infiltrated in the summer months. The conversion from native grassland to winter wheat has reduced groundwater recharge by 42–50% (50–55 mm year?1 for recharge), and the conversion from winter wheat to alfalfa resulted in a significant chloride accumulation in the upper soil zone, which terminated deep drainage. The paper also evaluates the time lag between potential recharge and actual recharge to aquifer and between increase in solute concentration in soil moisture and that in the aquifer following land‐use change due to the deep unsaturated zone. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

Fresh-water lenses are formed in unconfined saline aquifers in response to deep percolation from rainfall, artificial recharge, and seepage from irrigation waters and/or in response to injecting fresh water through vertical or horizontal wells. An approximate differential equation is derived in terms of the depth of the fresh-salt water interface below the initial position of the saline-water table. This equation is analogous to that of the ground-water motion in two dimensions. The wealth of knowledge available from solving the latter equation is used to obtain approximate expressions for the movement of the fresh-salt water interface in several flow systems wherein this interface does not reach the bottom of the aquifer. These approximate solutions as well as others for related quantities of interest may afford useful tools for rationally planning the extraction of usable waters from such flow systems.  相似文献   

11.
Aquifer natural recharge estimations are a prerequisite for understanding hydrologic systems and sustainable water resources management. As meteorological data series collection is difficult in arid and semiarid areas, satellite products have recently become an alternative for water resources studies. A daily groundwater recharge estimation in the NW part of the Lake Chad Basin, using a soil–plant-atmosphere model (VisualBALAN), from ground- and satellite-based meteorological input dataset for non-irrigated and irrigated land and for the 2005–2014 period is presented. Average annual values were 284 mm and 30°C for precipitation and temperature in ground-based gauge stations. For the satellite-model-based Lake Chad Basin Flood and Drought Monitor System platform (CHADFDM), average annual precipitation and temperature were 417 mm and 29°C, respectively. Uncertainties derived from satellite data measurement could account for the rainfall difference. The estimated mean annual aquifer recharge was always higher from satellite- than ground-based data, with differences up to 46% for dryland and 23% in irrigated areas. Recharge response to rainfall events was very variable and results were very sensitive to: wilting point, field capacity and curve number for runoff estimation. Obtained results provide plausible recharge values beyond the uncertainty related to data input and modelling approach. This work prevents on the important deviations in recharge estimation from weighted-ensemble satellite-based data, informing in decision making to both stakeholders and policy makers.  相似文献   

12.
Through the delivery of water in snowmelt, climate should govern the rate and extent of saprolite formation in snow‐dominated mountain watersheds, yet the mechanisms by which water flows deeply into regolith are largely unexplored. In this study we link rainfall, snow depth, and water content data from both soil and shallow saprolite to document vadose zone dynamics in two montane catchments over 2 years. Measurements of snow pack thickness and soil moisture reveal strong contrasts between north‐ and south‐facing slopes in both the timing of meltwater delivery and the duration of significant soil wetting in the shallow vadose zone. Despite similar magnitudes of snowmelt recharge, north‐facing slopes have higher sustained soil moisture compared to south‐facing slopes. To help interpret these observations, we use a 2D numerical model of vadose zone dynamics to calculate the expected space–time moisture patterns on an idealized hillslope under two wetting scenarios: a single sustained recharge pulse versus a set of short pulses. The model predicts that the duration of the recharge event exerts a stronger control on the depth and residence time of water in the upper unsaturated zone than the magnitude of the recharge event. Model calculations also imply that water should move more slowly through the subsurface and downward water flux should be substantially reduced when water is applied in several pulses rather than in one sustained event. The results suggest that thicker soil and more deeply weathered rock on north‐facing slopes may reflect greater water supply to the deep subsurface. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The vadose zone is the main region controlling water movement from the land surface to the aquifer and has a very complex structure. The use of non-invasive or minimally invasive geophysical methods especially electrical resistivity imaging is a cost-effective approach adapted for long-term monitoring of the vadose zone. The main aim of this work is to know the fractures in the vadose zone, of granitic terrene, through which the recharge or preferred path recharge to the aquifer takes place and thus to relate moisture and electrical resistivity. Time lapse electrical resistivity tomography (TLERT) experiment was carried out in the vadose zone of granitic terrene at the Indian Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad along two profiles to a depth of 18 m and 13 m each. The profiles are 300 m apart. Piezometric, rainfall and soil moisture data were recorded to correlate with changes in the rainfall recharge. These TLERT difference images showed that the conductivity distribution was consistent with the recharge occurring along the minor fractures. We mapped the fractures in hard rock or granites to see the effect of the recharge on resistivity variation and estimation of moisture content. These fractures act as the preferred pathways for the recharge to take place. A good correlation between the soil moisture and resistivity is established in the vadose zone of granitic aquifer. Since the vadose zone exhibits extremely high variability, both in space and time, the surface geophysical investigations such as TLERT have been a simple and useful method to characterize the vadose zone, which would not have been possible with the point measurements alone. The analyses of the pseudosection with time indicate clearly that the assumption of the piston flow of the moisture front is not valid in hard rocks. The outcome of this study may provide some indirect parameters to the well known Richard's equation in studying the unsaturated zone.  相似文献   

14.
Accurate representation of artificial recharge is requisite to calibration of a ground water model of an unconfined aquifer for a semiarid or arid site with a vadose zone that imparts significant attenuation of liquid transmission and substantial anthropogenic liquid discharges. Under such circumstances, artificial recharge occurs in response to liquid disposal to the vadose zone in areas that are small relative to the ground water model domain. Natural recharge, in contrast, is spatially variable and occurs over the entire upper boundary of a typical unconfined ground water model. An improved technique for partitioning artificial recharge from simulated total recharge for inclusion in a ground water model is presented. The improved technique is applied using data from the semiarid Hanford Site. From 1944 until the late 1980s, when Hanford's mission was the production of nuclear materials, the quantities of liquid discharged from production facilities to the ground vastly exceeded natural recharge. Nearly all hydraulic head data available for use in calibrating a ground water model at this site were collected during this period or later, when the aquifer was under the diminishing influence of the massive water disposals. The vadose zone is typically 80 to 90 m thick at the Central Plateau where most production facilities were located at this semiarid site, and its attenuation of liquid transmission to the aquifer can be significant. The new technique is shown to improve the representation of artificial recharge and thereby contribute to improvement in the calibration of a site-wide ground water model.  相似文献   

15.
Extensive nitrogen loads at the soil surface exceed plant uptake and soil biochemical capacity, and therefore lead to nitrogen accumulation in the deep vadose zone. Studies have shown that stored nitrogen in the vadose zone can eventually reach the water table and affect the quality of groundwater resources. Recently, global scale models have been implemented to quantify nitrate storage and nitrate travel time in the vadose zone. These global models are simplistic and relatively easy to implement and therefore facilitate analysis of the considered transport processes at a regional scale with no further requirements. However, the suitability of applying these models at a regional scale has not been tested. Here, we evaluate, for the first time, the performance and utility of global scale models at the regional scale. Applied to the Loess Plateau of China, we compare estimates of groundwater recharge and nitrate storage derived from global scale models with results from a regional scale approach utilizing the Richards and advection-dispersion equations. The estimated nitrate storage was compared to nitrate observations collected in the deep vadose zone (>50 m) at five sites across the Loess Plateau. Although both models predict similar spatial patterns of nitrate storage, the recharge fluxes were three times smaller and the nitrate storage was two times higher compared with the regional model. The results suggest that global scale models are a potentially useful screening tool, but require refinement for local scale applications.  相似文献   

16.
Seasonal signals of stable isotopes in precipitation, combined with measurements of isotope ratios in soil water, can be used for quantitative estimation of groundwater recharge rates. This study investigates the applicability of using the piston flow principle and the peak shift displacement method to estimate actual groundwater recharge rates in a humid Nordic region located in the province of Quebec, Canada. Two different sites with and without vegetation (C1 and C2) in an unconfined aquifer were tested by measuring soil water isotope ratios (18O/16O and 2H/1H) and volumetric pore water content. Core samples were obtained along the vadose zone down to the groundwater table at the two sites (2.45 m for Site C1 and 4.15 m for Site C2). The peak shift method to estimate groundwater recharge rates was shown to be accurate only in certain specific conditions inherent to the soil properties and the topographical situation of the investigated sites. Indeed, at Site C2, recharge from the snowmelt could not be estimated because of heterogeneity in the lower part of the vadose zone. At this same site the later recharge after the snowmelt (in the period from late spring to early autumn) could be estimated accurately because the upper part of the vadose zone was homogeneous. Furthermore, at site C1, runoff/runon phenomena hampered calculations of actual infiltration and thus produced inaccurate results for recharge. These two different site effects (heterogeneity in the first site and runoff/runon in the other site) were identified as being limiting factors in the accurate assessment of actual recharge. This study therefore recommends the use of the peak shift method for (1) humid Nordic regions, (2) homogeneous and thick vadose zones, and (3) areas with few or limited site effects (runoff/runon).  相似文献   

17.
Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.  相似文献   

18.
Kai‐Yuan Ke 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1409-1421
This research proposes a combination of SWAT and MODFLOW, MD‐SWAT‐MODFLOW, to address the multi‐aquifers condition in Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan. The natural recharge and unidentified pumping/recharge are separately estimated. The model identifies the monthly pumping/recharge rates in multi‐aquifers so that the daily streamflow can be simulated correctly. A multi‐aquifers condition means a subsurface formation composed of at least the unconfined aquifer, the confined aquifer, and an in‐between aquitard. In such a case, the variation of groundwater level is related to pumping/recharge activities in vertically adjacent aquifer and the river‐aquifer interaction. Both factors in turn affect the streamflow performance. Results show that MD‐SWAT‐MODFLOW performs better than SWAT alone in terms of simulated streamflow, especially during low flow period, when pumping/recharge rates are properly estimated. A sensitivity analysis of individual parameter suggests that the vertical leakance may be the most sensitive among all investigated MODFLOW parameters in terms of the estimated pumping/recharge among aquifers, and the Latin‐Hypercube‐One‐factor‐At‐a‐Time sensitivity analysis indicates that the hydraulic conductivity of channel is the most sensitive to the model performance. It also points out the necessity to simultaneously estimate pumping/recharge rates in multi‐aquifers. The estimated net pumping rate can be treated as a lower bound of the actual local pumping rate. As a whole, the model provides the spatio‐temporal groundwater use, which gives the authorities insights to manage groundwater resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The groundwater in shallow loess aquifers in high mountain–hills in the western Loess Plateau in China is almost the sole water resource for local residents. However, the question about how the loess groundwater naturally circulates in these high mountain–hills, characterized by low precipitation and high potential evaporation, remains unclear. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the application of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes to (1) examine temporal variations of the isotopic composition of precipitation and shallow groundwater and (2) uncover the mechanism of groundwater recharge in high mountain–hills. Results from 2 years of monitoring data show a difference in the stable isotopes for groundwater and local precipitation between the winter and summer periods. Similar to precipitation, stable isotopes in groundwater are observed to be depleted in winter and enriched in summer, particularly in oxygen isotope. A prominent characteristic is that H and O isotopes of groundwater show a very clear response to strong precipitation in the rainy season in 2013. The results highlight that local precipitation is the likely recharge source for groundwater in shallow loess aquifers. Annual recharge from local precipitation maintains the groundwater resource in the shallower loess aquifer. The mechanisms governing shallow loess groundwater recharge in high mountain–hills were evaluated. In addition to possible vertical slow percolation of soil water through the unsaturated zone, rapid groundwater recharge mechanisms have been identified as temporal preferential infiltration through sinkholes, slip surface or landslide surface and through the interface of loess layer and palaeo‐soils. Most groundwater can be recharged after a heavy rainy season. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):727-738
Abstract

Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km2) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period.  相似文献   

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