首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Koji Fujita 《水文研究》2007,21(21):2892-2896
The impact of the timing of dust deposition on glacier runoff was evaluated using a glacier mass‐balance model with a newly improved scheme to track a dusted layer in a snow layer of a glacier. The lowering of surface albedo due to the dusted layer appearing leads to a drastic increase of glacier runoff even under the same meteorological conditions. Calculations of seasonal sensitivity, the relationship between dusted date and resulting runoff, have shown that dust deposition during a melting season might cause a drastic mass outflow from a glacier through changing the surface albedo during the melting season. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Some analytical results of the measured runoff during 1950s to 1980s at outlet hydrological stations of 33 main rivers and climatic data collected from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are presented. Comparison of hydrological and climatic parameters before and after 1980 shows that the spring runoff for most rivers after 1980s increased obviously at a rate of about 10%, though the spring air temperature did not rise very much. Especially. an increment by 20% for alpine runoff is observed during May when intensive snow melting occurred in the alpine region. To the contmy, the runoff in June decreased about 5%. When the summer or annual runoff is taken into account. direct relationship can be found between the change in runoff and the ratio of glacier-coverage, except the runoff in August when the glacier melting is strong, indicating that climatic warming has an obvious effect on the contribution of glacier melting to the runoff increase  相似文献   

3.
The glaciers on Tibetan Plateau play an important role in the catchment hydrology of this region. However, our knowledge with respect to water circulation in this remote area is scarce. In this study, the HBV light model, which adopts the degree‐day model for glacial melting, was employed to simulate the total runoff, the glacier runoff and glacier mass balance (GMB) of the Dongkemadi River Basin (DRB) at the headwater of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau, China. Firstly, the daily temperature and precipitation of the DRB from 1955 to 2008 were obtained by statistical methods, based on daily meteorological data observed in the DRB (2005–2008) and recorded by four national meteorological stations near the DRB (1955–2008). Secondly, we used 4‐year daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth and monthly evaporation, which were observed in the DRB, as input to obtain a set of proper parameters. Then, the annual runoff, the glacier runoff and GMB (1955–2008) were calculated using the HBV model driven by interpolated meteorological data. The calculated GMB fits well with the observed results. At last, using the temperature and precipitation predicted by climate models, we predicted the changes of runoff depth and GMB of the DRB in the next 40 years. Under all climate‐change scenarios, annual glacier runoff shows a significant increase due to intensified ice melting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.

Some analytical results of the measured runoff during 1950s to 1980s at outlet hydrological stations of 33 main rivers and climatic data collected from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are presented. Comparison of hydrological and climatic parameters before and after 1980 shows that the spring runoff for most rivers after 1980s increased obviously at a rate of about 10%, though the spring air temperature did not rise very much. Especially. an increment by 20% for alpine runoff is observed during May when intensive snow melting occurred in the alpine region. To the contmy, the runoff in June decreased about 5%. When the summer or annual runoff is taken into account. direct relationship can be found between the change in runoff and the ratio of glacier-coverage, except the runoff in August when the glacier melting is strong, indicating that climatic warming has an obvious effect on the contribution of glacier melting to the runoff increase

  相似文献   

5.
MAURI S. PELTO 《水文研究》1996,10(9):1173-1180
From 1985 to 1993, the mean summer temperature was 1.1°C above the long-term mean and the mean winter precipitation was 11% below the long-term mean at the eight Washington State Cascade Mountain weather stations. The effect of this climate fluctuation on glacier and alpine runoff has been examined in five North Cascade basins. From 1985 to 1993 the two basins with less than 1% glacier-covered area experienced mean 1 July to 30 September (late summer) runoff 36% below the long-term mean. The three moderately glaciated basins (3, 6 and 14% glaciated, respectively) experienced a 13% decline in late summer runoff for the same period. A significant change in late summer runoff has occurred in the North Cascades and this change is less pronounced in glacier basins. The cause of the change is decreased winter precipitation and earlier onset of spring melting of the alpine snowpack, followed by above average summer temperatures and an earlier summer melt of alpine snowpack. The smaller decrease in runoff in glacial basins is due to increased ablation and consequent glacier runoff due to high summer temperatures. However, glacier retreat is also reducing glacier runoff.  相似文献   

6.
Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree‐day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13%–35% during 2011–2050 relative to the average during 1961–2006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 2011–2030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
中亚近期气候变化的湖泊响应   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
秦伯强 《湖泊科学》1993,5(2):118-127
本世纪以来,气候的暖干化趋势在北半球中纬度地区表现突出,对该地区水资源造成了一系列的影响,基于这一事实,本文主要考察了中亚干旱和半干旱地区内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应。研究表明,气候变化对湖泊影响主要有二种途径,其一是通过热量平衡影响湖泊水量收支中的支出项,即蒸发量;其二是影响湖泊收入项,即降水与地表径流。伊塞克湖以前者为主,青海湖以后者为主。在相同的气候变化背景下,不同湖盆形态的湖泊对此作出的响应不尽相同:湖盆浅平,以面积变化为主;湖盆深凹,则以水位变化为主。  相似文献   

8.
Mountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff. The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters. Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi‐arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long‐term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree‐day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree‐day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area–volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub‐basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long‐term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
本文较为详细地分析了近半个世纪以来的伊塞克湖区实测水文和气象资料。指出流域内降水量的变化未出现减少趋势,相反在湖泊东部迎风坡上,降水有增大的趋势。这部分增加的降水量是由于气候趋暖造成蒸发量增加所致。同时气候趋暖也使冰川消融扩大,径流量增加。但由于沿河引水灌溉,使河川径流在滨湖地带显著减少。灌溉的实质是扩大蒸发面,使蒸发水量增加。蒸发形成的水量,部分以降水形式返回湖内,部分越过流域边界外逸,外逸水量的多少决定了湖水位的下降速度。  相似文献   

11.
Snowmelt is an important source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Snowmelt modelling for alpine regions remains challenging with scarce gauges. This study simulates the snowmelt in the Karuxung River catchment in the south Tibetan Plateau using an altitude zone based temperature‐index model, calibrates the snow cover area and runoff simulation during 2003–2005 and validates the model performance via snow cover area and runoff simulation in 2006. In the snowmelt and runoff modelling, temperature and precipitation are the two most important inputs. Relevant parameters, such as critical snow fall temperature, temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, determine the form and amount of precipitation and distribution of temperature and precipitation in hydrological modelling of the sparsely gauged catchment. Sensitivity analyses show that accurate estimation of these parameters would greatly help in improving the snowmelt simulation accuracy, better describing the snow‐hydrological behaviours and dealing with the data scarcity at higher elevations. Specifically, correlation between the critical snow fall temperature and relative humidity and seasonal patterns of both the temperature lapse rate and the precipitation gradient should be considered in the modelling studies when precipitation form is not logged and meteorological observations are only available at low elevation. More accurate simulation of runoff involving snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff will improve our understanding of hydrological processes and help assess runoff impacts from a changing climate in high mountain catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The processes by which climate change affects streamflow in alpine river basins are not entirely understood. This study evaluated the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on runoff and streamflow using glacier‐enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study used observed and detrended historical meteorological data for recent decades (1961–2005) to analyse individual and combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes on snow and glacier melts and discharges in the Sary‐Djaz‐Kumaric River Basin (SRB), Tianshan Mountains. The results showed a 1.3% increase in annual snowmelt in the basin, mainly because of an increase in precipitation. Snowmelt in the basin varied seasonally, increasing from April through May because of increasing precipitation and decreasing from July through September because of rising temperature. Glacier melt increased by 5.4%, 5.0% of which was due to rising temperature and only 0.4% due to increasing precipitation. Annual streamflow increased by 4.4%, of which temperature and precipitation increases accounted for 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively. The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on streamflow were especially significant after 1980 and even more so in September. Glacier melt, due to temperature rise, was the dominant driver of increasing streamflow in the glacier‐dominated SRB, Tianshan Mountains. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Climate variability and underlying surface changes are strongly associated with runoff alterations. The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) is a typical alpine region located in the southeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, where runoff is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate and environmental changes. Here, we conducted a quantitative assessment of the contributions of climate variability and underlying surface changes to runoff alterations from 1966 to 2015 in the upper, middle, and lower regions of the YZRB. The year 1997 was identified as the runoff breakpoint in all three sub-regions, which divided the runoff time series into the baseline period (1966–1997) and change period (1998–2015). An adjusted Budyko framework accounting for glacier runoff was developed to conduct a runoff alteration attribution analysis. The results indicated that the increase in runoff in the upper region was dominated by changes in the underlying surface and glacier runoff, whose contribution accounted for 59.61 and 49.18%, respectively. The runoff increase in the middle and lower regions was mainly attributed to the increase in precipitation, accounting for 39.36 and 129.21% of the total runoff alteration, respectively. Moreover, due to the little variation in vegetation and degradation of permafrost in the upper region, increases in runoff might be largely attributed to increases in subsurface runoff caused by the melting of permafrost. In the middle region, in addition to increased precipitation, vegetation degradation had positive effects on runoff increases. The lower region exhibited far higher water consumption rates due to its extensive and dense vegetation coverage accompanied by rising temperature, which resulted in a negative contribution (−58.74%) to runoff alteration. Our findings may therefore have important implications for water resource security and sustainable development in alpine regions.  相似文献   

14.
Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of incomplete hydrological models, irregular topography, immeasurable snowpack or glacier, and low data resolution. In this study, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model (SWAT-Soil Water Assessment Tool) coupled with a glacier melting algorithm was applied to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic and glacial changes in the upstream Heihe River Basin. The glacier mass balance was calculated at daily time-step using a distributed temperature-index melting and accumulation algorithm embedded in the SWAT model. Specifically, the model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data measured at Yingluoxia Hydrological Station and decadal ice volume changes derived from survey maps and remote sensing images between 1960 and 2010. This study highlights the effects of glacier melting on streamflow and their future changes in the mountainous watersheds. We simulate the contribution of glacier melting to streamflow change under different scenarios of climate changes in terms of temperature and precipitation dynamics. The rising temperature positively contributed to streamflow due to the increase of snowmelt and glacier melting. The rising precipitation directly contributes to streamflow and it contributed more to streamflow than the rising temperature. The results show that glacial meltwater has contributed about 3.25 billion m3 to streamflow during 1960–2010. However, the depth of runoff within the watershed increased by about 2.3 mm due to the release of water from glacial storage to supply the intensified evapotranspiration and infiltration. The simulation results indicate that the glacier made about 8.9% contribution to streamflow in 2010. The research approach used in this study is feasible to estimate the glacial contribution to streamflow in other similar mountainous watersheds elsewhere.  相似文献   

15.
This research demonstrates the spatiotemporal variations of albedo on nine glaciers in western China during 2000–2011, by the albedo derived from two types of datasets: Landsat TM/ETM + images and MOD10A1 product. Then, the influence factors of glacier albedo and its relationship with glacier mass balance are also analyzed by the correlation approach, which is frequently used in geostatistics. The paper finds that there are different spatiotemporal variations over the glaciers in western China: (1) For a single glacier, the albedo varies gently with altitude on its tongue and increases fast in the middle part, while in the accumulation zones, the albedo value appears in the form of fluctuation. This could provide a quantitative method to retrieve the snowline by determining the threshold albedo value of snowpack and bare ice. (2) For the glaciers in western China, the albedo decreases with distance to the center of Tibetan Plateau (TP). This may relate to the elevation of glacier, for the speed of glacier retreat highly depends on air temperature. (3) In the summer period, albedo on most glaciers declines over the last 12 years, and it decreases much faster in southeastern TP than other regions, for which air temperature overwhelms the black carbon concentration. In addition, the trend of glacier albedo in summer is greatly correlated with that of measured glacier mass balance, which implies that the long‐term albedo datasets by remote sensing technology could be used to monitor and predict the change of glacier mass balance in the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear trends and significant correlations at different time scales.  相似文献   

17.
In glacierized catchments, meteorological inputs driving surface melting are translated into runoff outputs mediated by the glacier hydrological system: analysis of the relationship between meteorology and diurnal and seasonal patterns of runoff should reflect the functioning of that system, with the role of meltwater storage likely to be of particular importance. Daily meltwater storage is determined for a glacier at 78 °N in the Svalbard archipelago, by comparing inputs calculated from a surface energy balance model with measured outputs (proglacial discharge). Solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and proglacial discharge are then analysed by regression and time‐series methods, in order to assess the meteorology–discharge relationship and its variation at diurnal and seasonal time‐scales. The recorded discharge time‐series can be divided into two contrasting intervals: up to early August, proglacial discharge was high and variable, mean hydrographs showed little indication of diurnal cycling, ARIMA models of discharge indicated a non‐seasonal, moving‐average generating process, and there was a net loss of meltwater from storage; from early August, proglacial discharge was low and relatively invariable, but with clearer diurnal cycles, regression models of discharge showed substantially improved correlations with air temperature and solar radiation, ARIMA models indicated a non‐seasonal, autoregressive generating process, and eventually a seasonal component, and there was a net gain in meltwater storage. The transition between the two periods is brief compared with the duration of the melt season. The runoff response to meteorology therefore lacks the strongly progressive element previously identified in mid‐latitude glacierized catchments. In particular, the glacier hydrological system only appears responsive to diurnal forcing following the depletion of the seasonal snowpack meltwater store. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Changes in timing of snowmelt-fed streamflow have great importance for water supply, flood management, and ecological processes, as well as being a common indicator of climate change. In this study, snowmelt runoff timing change in the contiguous United States between 1957 and 2016 was investigated by analysing data from 97 streamflow gages. The annual snowmelt runoff timing shift was identified using ‘Center Time (CT)’ and ‘Spring Pulse Onset (SPO)’ methods, jointly with the monthly fractional streamflow (MFS) analysis, conducted between January and June. Since snowmelt-derived streamflow timing change is mainly induced by regional meteorological factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, their trends and relationship with CT were also examined. Shifts toward earlier snowmelt runoff timing were found by both methods, CT (8.3 days on average) and SPO (8.5 days on average). Although the results of the CT change are stronger than the SPO change, both outcomes are mostly correlated, particularly in the central and northwestern parts of the country. MFS trends support the outcomes of CT and SPO. In January, February, and especially March, a higher number of the stations indicated increasing trends in MFS. In April, May, and June, their number decreased and the number of gages with diminishing trends rose sharply. The timing difference is highly related to temperature change. Annual average temperature and temperature in the melting period increase considerably. The annual average temperature is significantly negatively correlated with CT in the vast majority of the regions. Although precipitation is not as effective as the temperature, its trends have impacts on snowmelt runoff timing change depending on the region and elevation. These results demonstrate the importance of the impacts of snowmelt runoff timing changes due to global warming on the regional and large-scale hydrology in the contiguous United States.  相似文献   

19.
The glacier mass balance, area change, and glacier runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and the Beida River Basin (BRB) were estimated from 1961 to 2006 by employing a modified monthly degree‐day model. Comparisons between the simulated and observed mass balance, equilibrium line altitude, and glacier runoff suggest that the model can be used to analyze the long‐term changes of glacier mass balance and runoff in the YRB and the BRB. The glacier mass balances of the YRB and the BYB both have a significantly decreasing trend with ?4.39 mm a‐1 and ?8.15 mm a‐1 from 1961 to 2006 because of a significant increase in ablation caused by increasing summer air temperatures, especially since 1996. The total runoff in glacier areas has a significant increasing trend with 0.23 × 108 m3 a‐1 and 0.02 × 108 m3 a‐1 in the YRB and the BRB, respectively. By comparing the mean mass balance during the period 1961 to 1986 with that of the 1987 to 2006, the BRB glacier mass balance's sensitivity to temperature is at 0.33 m a‐1 °C, nearly twice as much as that of the YRB at 0.16 m a‐1 °C. The difference between the glacier temperature sensitivity in the YRB and the BRB is primarily because the glacier elevation band area weighted altitude of the YRB is about 700 m higher than that of BRB. The glacier elevation band area weighted summer air temperature in the YRB is around 2 °C lower than that of the BRB. Therefore, the annual positive degree‐day of the YRB and the BRB increases by about 21.0 °C and 77.3 °C respectively when the summer air temperature increases by 1 °C, resulting into more glacier ablation and runoff in the BRB than in the YRB. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The active rock glacier “Innere Ölgrube” and its catchment area (Ötztal Alps, Austria) are assessed using various hydro(geo)logical tools to provide a thorough catchment characterization and to quantify temporal variations in recharge and discharge components. During the period from June 2014 to July 2018, an average contribution derived from snowmelt, ice melt and rainfall of 35.8%, 27.6% and 36.6%, respectively, is modelled for the catchment using a rainfall-runoff model. Discharge components of the rock glacier springs are distinguished using isotopic data as well as other natural and artificial tracer data, when considering the potential sources rainfall, snowmelt, ice melt and longer stored groundwater. Seasonal as well as diurnal variations in runoff are quantified and the importance of shallow groundwater within this rock glacier-influenced catchment is emphasized. Water derived from ice melt is suggested to be provided mainly by melting of two small cirque glaciers within the catchment and subordinately by melting of permafrost ice of the rock glacier. The active rock glacier is characterized by a layered internal structure with an unfrozen base layer responsible for groundwater storage and retarded runoff, a main permafrost body contributing little to the discharge (at the moment) by permafrost thaw and an active layer responsible for fast lateral flow on top of the permafrost body. Snowmelt contributes at least 1/3rd of the annual recharge. During droughts, meltwater derived from two cirque glaciers provides runoff with diurnal runoff variations; however, this discharge pattern will change as these cirque glaciers will ultimately disappear in the future. The storage-discharge characteristics of the investigated active rock glacier catchment are an example of a shallow groundwater aquifer in alpine catchments that ought to be considered when analysing (future) river runoff characteristics in alpine catchments as these provide retarded runoff during periods with little or no recharge.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号