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1.

Some analytical results of the measured runoff during 1950s to 1980s at outlet hydrological stations of 33 main rivers and climatic data collected from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are presented. Comparison of hydrological and climatic parameters before and after 1980 shows that the spring runoff for most rivers after 1980s increased obviously at a rate of about 10%, though the spring air temperature did not rise very much. Especially. an increment by 20% for alpine runoff is observed during May when intensive snow melting occurred in the alpine region. To the contmy, the runoff in June decreased about 5%. When the summer or annual runoff is taken into account. direct relationship can be found between the change in runoff and the ratio of glacier-coverage, except the runoff in August when the glacier melting is strong, indicating that climatic warming has an obvious effect on the contribution of glacier melting to the runoff increase

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2.
Studies on hydrological processes are often emphasized in resource and environmental studies. This paper identifies the hydrological processes in different landscape zones during the wet season based on the isotopic and hydrochemical analysis of glacier, snow, frozen soil, groundwater and other water sources in the headwater catchment of alpine cold regions. Hydrochemical tracers indicated that the chemical compositions of the water are typically characterized by: (1) Ca? HCO3 type in glacier snow zone, (2) Mg? Ca? SO4 type for surface runoff and Ca? Mg? HCO3 type for groundwater in alpine desert zone, (3) Ca? Mg? SO4 type for surface water and Ca? Mg? HCO3 type for groundwater in alpine shrub zone, and (4) Ca? Na? SO4 type in surface runoff in the alpine grassland zone. The End‐Members Mixing Analysis (EMMA) was employed for hydrograph separation. The results showed that the Mafengou River in the wet season was mainly recharged by groundwater in alpine cold desert zones and shrub zones (52%), which came from the infiltration and transformation of precipitation, thawed frozen soil water and glacier‐snow meltwater. Surface runoff in the glacier‐snow zone accounted for 11%, surface runoff in alpine cold desert zones and alpine shrub meadow zones accounted for 20%, thawed frozen soil water in alpine grassland zones accounted for 9% of recharge and precipitation directly into the river channel (8%). This study suggested that the whole catchment precipitation did not produce significant surface runoff directly, but mostly transformed into groundwater or interflow, and finally arrived in the river channel. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of incomplete hydrological models, irregular topography, immeasurable snowpack or glacier, and low data resolution. In this study, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model (SWAT-Soil Water Assessment Tool) coupled with a glacier melting algorithm was applied to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic and glacial changes in the upstream Heihe River Basin. The glacier mass balance was calculated at daily time-step using a distributed temperature-index melting and accumulation algorithm embedded in the SWAT model. Specifically, the model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data measured at Yingluoxia Hydrological Station and decadal ice volume changes derived from survey maps and remote sensing images between 1960 and 2010. This study highlights the effects of glacier melting on streamflow and their future changes in the mountainous watersheds. We simulate the contribution of glacier melting to streamflow change under different scenarios of climate changes in terms of temperature and precipitation dynamics. The rising temperature positively contributed to streamflow due to the increase of snowmelt and glacier melting. The rising precipitation directly contributes to streamflow and it contributed more to streamflow than the rising temperature. The results show that glacial meltwater has contributed about 3.25 billion m3 to streamflow during 1960–2010. However, the depth of runoff within the watershed increased by about 2.3 mm due to the release of water from glacial storage to supply the intensified evapotranspiration and infiltration. The simulation results indicate that the glacier made about 8.9% contribution to streamflow in 2010. The research approach used in this study is feasible to estimate the glacial contribution to streamflow in other similar mountainous watersheds elsewhere.  相似文献   

4.
The thermal regimes of alpine streams remain understudied and have important implications for cold‐water fish habitat, which is expected to decline due to climatic warming. Previous research has focused on the effects of distributed energy fluxes and meltwater from snowpacks and glaciers on the temperature of mountain streams. This study presents the effects of the groundwater spring discharge from an inactive rock glacier containing little ground ice on the temperature of an alpine stream. Rock glaciers are coarse blocky landforms that are ubiquitous in alpine environments and typically exhibit low groundwater discharge temperatures and resilience to climatic warming. Water temperature data indicate that the rock glacier spring cools the stream by an average of 3 °C during July and August and reduces maximum daily temperatures by an average of 5 °C during the peak temperature period of the first two weeks in August, producing a cold‐water refuge downstream of the spring. The distributed stream surface and streambed energy fluxes are calculated for the reach along the toe of the rock glacier, and solar radiation dominates the distributed stream energy budget. The lateral advective heat flux generated by the rock glacier spring is compared to the distributed energy fluxes over the study reach, and the spring advective heat flux is the dominant control on stream temperature at the reach scale. This study highlights the potential for coarse blocky landforms to generate climatically resilient cold‐water refuges in alpine streams.  相似文献   

5.
The active rock glacier “Innere Ölgrube” and its catchment area (Ötztal Alps, Austria) are assessed using various hydro(geo)logical tools to provide a thorough catchment characterization and to quantify temporal variations in recharge and discharge components. During the period from June 2014 to July 2018, an average contribution derived from snowmelt, ice melt and rainfall of 35.8%, 27.6% and 36.6%, respectively, is modelled for the catchment using a rainfall-runoff model. Discharge components of the rock glacier springs are distinguished using isotopic data as well as other natural and artificial tracer data, when considering the potential sources rainfall, snowmelt, ice melt and longer stored groundwater. Seasonal as well as diurnal variations in runoff are quantified and the importance of shallow groundwater within this rock glacier-influenced catchment is emphasized. Water derived from ice melt is suggested to be provided mainly by melting of two small cirque glaciers within the catchment and subordinately by melting of permafrost ice of the rock glacier. The active rock glacier is characterized by a layered internal structure with an unfrozen base layer responsible for groundwater storage and retarded runoff, a main permafrost body contributing little to the discharge (at the moment) by permafrost thaw and an active layer responsible for fast lateral flow on top of the permafrost body. Snowmelt contributes at least 1/3rd of the annual recharge. During droughts, meltwater derived from two cirque glaciers provides runoff with diurnal runoff variations; however, this discharge pattern will change as these cirque glaciers will ultimately disappear in the future. The storage-discharge characteristics of the investigated active rock glacier catchment are an example of a shallow groundwater aquifer in alpine catchments that ought to be considered when analysing (future) river runoff characteristics in alpine catchments as these provide retarded runoff during periods with little or no recharge.  相似文献   

6.
Mountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff. The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters. Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
A number of studies have indicated a transition from warm-dry to warm-wet climate in Northwest China after the 1980s. This transition was characterized by an increase in temperature and precipitation, added river runoff volume, increased lake water surface elevation and area, and elevated groundwater table. However, some literatures showed that the Hotan River has presented a contrary situation, i.e. the runoff decreased, whereas temperature and precipitation increased. In order to discover the nonlinear runoff trend and its causes in the Hotan River, based on the related data from hydrological stations, ground and air sounding meteorological stations, this study applied a comprehensive method combing correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and regression analysis to investigate the runoff change in the Hotan River with its relevant climatic factors over the past decades. The main findings are: (a) the hydrological process of the Hotan River is a nonlinear system, with a periodicity of 24 year cycle, and it shows different nonlinear trends at different time scales; (b) the data from the ground meteorological stations in the Hotan area shows a false appearance that there is almost no correlation between runoff and temperature, and a little negative correlation between runoff and precipitation; (c) but the data from air sounding meteorological stations shows the truth that there is a close relation between the runoff in the Hotan River and the 0°C level height in summer on the north slope of Kunlun Mountains. The two variables present a same periodicity, i.e. 24-year cycle, having similar nonlinear trends and significant correlations at different time scales.  相似文献   

8.
Based on hydrological and climatic data covering the period from 1961 to 2008, this paper studies the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the Ebinur Lake Catchment. The results show that the annual runoff of three rivers in Ebinur Lake Catchment exhibited different change trends. Specifically, in Jinghe River and Kuytun River exhibited a slightly increasing trend, but an adverse trend in Bortala River, and the variation trend has been the most dramatic since the mid-1990s. The observed variation in the runoff was resulted from the elevated alpine precipitation, rather than rising temperature, and that precipitation is a major factor for runoff generation. The runoff CAR model proposed by this paper can be used to predict the annual runoff in three rivers, and demonstrated annual runoff in Bortala River and Jinghe River will display an increased trend, while a less decreasing trend in Kuytun River under the climate change scenarios of warm-humid variation. In addition, the exploitation of the area of cultivated land led to more water resources consumption, primarily for agriculture irrigation, is the cause of the persistently ecoenvironment degradation, which have reached in a critical state thus, a more pressing concern is the development a scientifically reasonable and administratively practical water resource management scheme.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Streamflow in the Himalayan rivers is generated from rainfall, snow and ice. The distribution of runoff produced from these sources is such that the streamflow may be observed in these rivers throughout the year, i.e. they are perennial in nature. Snow and glacier melt runoff contributes substantially to the annual flows of these rivers and its estimation is required for the planning, development and management of the water resources of this region. The average contribution of snow and glacier melt runoff in the annual flows of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam has been determined. Keeping in view the availability of data for the study basin, a water balance approach was used and a water budget period of 10 years (October 1986-September 1996) was considered for the analysis. The rainfall input to the study basin over the water budget period was computed from isohyets using rainfall data of 10 stations located at different elevations in the basin. The total volume of flow for the same period was computed using observed flow data of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam. A relationship between temperature and evaporation was developed and used to estimate the evapotranspiration losses. The snow-covered area, and its depletion with time, was determined using satellite data. It was found that the average contribution of snow and glacier runoff in the annual flow of the Satluj River at Bhakra Dam is about 59%, the remaining 41% being from rain.  相似文献   

10.
The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree‐day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13%–35% during 2011–2050 relative to the average during 1961–2006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 2011–2030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
This study examines the 1914–2015 runoff trends and variability for 136 rivers draining British Columbia's Coast and Insular Mountains. Rivers are partitioned into eastward and westward flowing rivers based on flow direction from the Coast Mountains. Thus, eastward and westward runoff trends and influence of topography on runoff are explored. Our findings indicate that rivers flowing eastward to the Nechako and Chilcotin plateaus contribute the lowest annual runoff compared to westward rivers where runoff is high. Low interannual runoff variability is evident in westward rivers and their alpine watersheds, whereas eastward rivers exhibit high interannual runoff variability. On Vancouver Island, some of the rivers with the highest annual runoff exhibit high interannual variability. A significant (p < .05) negative correlation exists between mean annual runoff (Rm) and latitude, gauged area, mean elevation, and its corresponding coefficient of variation. However, a significant positive correlation was found between the glacierized area of mountainous regions and Rm. The mean coefficient of variation in annual runoff is significantly negatively correlated with latitude and glacierized area, but significantly positively correlated with longitude. Annual and seasonal runoff trend analyses of each river were performed for an early (1936–2015), a middle (1966–2015), and a late (1986–2015) period using the Mann–Kendall test. Trend analyses revealed a shift towards more positive detectable (signal‐to‐noise ratio > 1) trends in annual and seasonal runoff from the middle to the late period across the study domain. Most positive detectable seasonal runoff trends in the middle period occur in spring in glacierized westward rivers located >1,200 m, whereas in the late period, they all occur in fall and are regionally coherent around Vancouver Island and south coastal BC. Rivers draining eastward exhibit more positive trends over 1986–2015 compared to westward rivers. This study provides crucial information on the hydrology of mountain watersheds across British Columbia's coast in response to Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase changes, the elevational amplification of regional climate change, and their influences on precipitation and glacier retreat.  相似文献   

13.
In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
We present a comprehensive hydrological modeling study in the drainage area of a hydropower reservoir in central Switzerland. To investigate the response of this 95 km2 alpine watershed to a changing climate, we used both a conceptual and a physically based hydrological model approach. The multi-model approach enabled detailed insights into the uncertainties associated with model projections of future runoff based on climate scenarios. Both hydrological models consistently predicted changes of the seasonal runoff dynamics, including the timing of snowmelt and peak-flow in summer as well as the future spread between high and low flow years. However the models disagreed regarding the evolution of glacier melt rates thus leading to a considerable difference in predicted annual runoff figures. The findings suggest that snow-glacier feedbacks require particular attention when predicting future runoff from glacio-nival watersheds.  相似文献   

16.
The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km2 and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3 °C) and four rainfall scenarios (P ? 10, P ? 5, P + 5 and P + 10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

The hydrological data (since 1953) of the Llanganuco basin (87.0 km2, 39% glacierized) show an increase of the glacial melting during the last quarter of the 20th century. These results were supplemented (since the end of 2000) by the data of the small basin of Artesoncocha (8.4 km2, 79% glacierized). The basin runoff is well correlated to the atmospheric temperature derived from the NOAA-NCEP re-analysis above the Cordillera Blanca. At the monthly time scale, the temperature is a good proxy of the glacier melting. The retreat of several glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca has been well documented for 50 years, highlighting an acceleration of the deglaciation in the mid-1970s. The use of these data of various origins permits one to model the behaviour of glaciers, especially the meltwater production, and then to predict their future evolution. The model was calibrated over the 1950–2000 period, thus providing a possible optimistic evolution range (underestimation if the climate change becomes more intense). The forcing of the model by forecasts of the future temperature evolution above the Cordillera Blanca, derived from the regionalization of global climatic models, allows improvement of the estimations only based on past glacial behaviour.  相似文献   

19.
淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
孙鹏  孙玉燕  张强  温庆志 《湖泊科学》2018,30(2):497-508
径流变化特征及成因研究对于农业灌溉、流域水资源配置与管理等具有重要理论与现实意义,而淮河流域是我国重要农业区,因而淮河流域径流过程特征及机理研究更突显其重要性.利用非参数Mann-Kendall趋势检验和小波转换等方法系统分析了淮河中上游息县、王家坝和蒋家集等9个水文站点径流资料,分析淮河流域中上游径流年内分配、年际变化、径流趋势、突变特征及周期变化等径流过程变化特征,并探讨了径流变化特征的成因.研究发现:(1)淮河中上游径流量主要集中于5-9月,约占年径流总量的70.37%,变差系数介于0.16~0.85之间,径流年际极值比则介于1.7~23.9之间,径流年际变化剧烈;(2)淮河中上游径流量整体呈下降趋势,尤其是4-5月径流下降趋势显著,季节变化不明显;(3)各站点年径流量在2000s呈显著周期变化,班台、王家坝、鲁台子和蚌埠站在该尺度上存在2.0~3.4 a尺度的小周期,息县、潢川和蒋家集站处于高能区.季节和汛期与非汛期的显著周期集中出现在1960s、1980s和2000s,1960s周期主要为2~8a.(4)潢川站年径流量对气候因子的响应最为明显,其对混合ENSO指数和太平洋中高纬年代际振荡指数(PDO)的响应分别通过了95%和99%的显著性检验.PDO对各站点月径流的直接影响最为显著,且主要集中在6月份,多呈显著负相关关系,以班台站最为显著,分别在1、4和6月通过了95%的显著性检验.南方涛动指数、北大西洋涛动指数和Nino3.4区海表温度距平指数(Nino3.4)对研究区月径流量的响应存在显著滞后性,Nino3.4对研究区月径流量滞后期的影响主要发生在潢川和蒋家集站,而北极涛动指数和PDO指数无滞后性响应.  相似文献   

20.
Snowmelt is an important source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Snowmelt modelling for alpine regions remains challenging with scarce gauges. This study simulates the snowmelt in the Karuxung River catchment in the south Tibetan Plateau using an altitude zone based temperature‐index model, calibrates the snow cover area and runoff simulation during 2003–2005 and validates the model performance via snow cover area and runoff simulation in 2006. In the snowmelt and runoff modelling, temperature and precipitation are the two most important inputs. Relevant parameters, such as critical snow fall temperature, temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, determine the form and amount of precipitation and distribution of temperature and precipitation in hydrological modelling of the sparsely gauged catchment. Sensitivity analyses show that accurate estimation of these parameters would greatly help in improving the snowmelt simulation accuracy, better describing the snow‐hydrological behaviours and dealing with the data scarcity at higher elevations. Specifically, correlation between the critical snow fall temperature and relative humidity and seasonal patterns of both the temperature lapse rate and the precipitation gradient should be considered in the modelling studies when precipitation form is not logged and meteorological observations are only available at low elevation. More accurate simulation of runoff involving snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff will improve our understanding of hydrological processes and help assess runoff impacts from a changing climate in high mountain catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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