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1.
逐时云迹风资料同化对暴雨预报的模拟试验 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
文中基于不同的云迹风同化方案,用GRAPES模式对2005年7月11-12日长江中下游一次暴雨强降水过程进行了云迹风资料同化试验及数值模拟,通过对比分析不同方案所得的分析场及预报场的差异,研究逐时云迹风资料三维变分同化对分析场及暴雨预报的影响.首先,根据连续性原理及双通道各层次云迹风资料的误差分析,分3个步骤对7月11日00:00-12:00 UTC共12个时次的双通道云迹风资料进行了初步的质量控制;然后,把经过质量控制的云迹风资料放入基于GRAPES 3D-VAR三维变分同化方案开发的逐小时循环同化系统中进行同化,将得出的分析场与单一时次未经质量控制的云迹风资料同化得出的分析场进行对比,探讨了逐时云迹风资料同化对数值预报分析场的影响;最后,把同化后的分析场作为初始场,用 GRAPES模式对 2005年7月11-12日长江流域暴雨过程做24 h降水预报试验,分析两个同化方案所模拟得到的预报场的差异.结果表明,经资料的筛选、同经纬度单点通道的选择及资料的稀疏化3个步骤控制后,各层次云迹风资料的误差有明显减小;加入经质量控制的逐时云迹风资料其三维变分同化可以提高分析场中风压场及水汽场的质量;而且在暴雨预报试验中可以相对更准确地预报暴雨落区及雨强. 相似文献
2.
Abstract Low‐level cloud motion vectors determined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Wisconsin in a 5‐degree square centred at 0°, 152°30’ W were intercompared with moored buoy wind measurements made at 0°, 152°W during April 1979‐February 1980. At the site of the intercomparison test the prevailing wind direction was easterly; monthly mean values of the meridional wind speed were less than 20% of the zonal component. The surface winds measured during the observational period were similar to the climatological‐mean wind conditions. Although the satellite wind speeds were larger than buoy wind speeds, as a priori expected, because of the vertical separation between the measurements, the comparison indicated that in the case of the zonal component there was a maximum usable frequency (muf) below which cloud drifts and surface wind vectors were 95% significantly correlated and the correlation was greater than the 50% noise level. The muf were 0.17 and 0.3 cpd for the NOAA and Wisconsin cloud motion vectors, respectively. At frequencies below the muf, an algorithm describing the frequency‐dependent differences of the rms zonal wind speed amplitudes was developed. Coherences involving the meridional wind speeds were too low for the estimation of a muf. 相似文献
3.
Norman Thyer 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):337-344
Abstract Analysis of diurnal variations of upper winds in summer in Alberta reveals features consistent with the hypothesis of a thermally‐induced wind system resulting from the juxtaposition of the Rocky Mountains and the Prairies. These include diurnal variation of flow that is most pronounced at two levels, one near the surface and one near the level of the mountain tops. Attempts to find a connection between such a system and occurrence of hail were unsuccessful. 相似文献
4.
During summer Monex-79, a variety of observing systems viz. research ships, research aircrafts, constant pres-sure balloons and geostationary satellite etc. were deployed, besides the regular conventional observations The pur-pose of these additional systems was to make the best possible data for the studies on various aspects of monsoon cir-culation. The present study is aimed at the construction of vertical wind profile using cloud motion vectors obtained from GOES (I-O) satellite and to examine whether the constructed wind profiles improves the representation of the monsoon system, flow pattern etc. in the objective analysis. For this purpose, climatological normals of the wind field are considered as the initial guess and the objective analyses of the wind field are made with, first using only data from conventional observations over land areas, subsequently including the constructed winds from cloud motion vectors. These analyses are then compared with the standard analyses of wind field obtained from Quick Look Atlas by T. N. Krishnamurti et al. (1979).It is inferred that satellite estimated mean wind profiles show good agreement with the mean wind profiles of the research ships with RMS errors less than 5 mps below 500 hPa and less than 8 mps above 500 hPa. It is further infer-red that the inclusion of constructed winds shows a positive impact on the objective analysis and improvement is seen to be more marked in the data-sparse region of the Arabian sea. Analyses which include the constructed winds show better agreement with the standard analysis, than the analyses obtained using only conventional winds. Thus, results of our study suggest that the wind profiles constructed using cloud motion vectors are of potential use in objective analysis to depict the major circulation features over the Indian region. 相似文献
5.
6.
H. Jean Thiébaux 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):291-305
Abstract Data assimilation in numerical weather forecasting corrects current forecast values by subtracting a portion of interpolated forecast‐minus‐observation differences at the points of a three‐dimensional grid. Deviations used in updating a forecast data field are forecast errors obtained or derived from observations available at update time. When observations are missing at mandatory levels, construction of full vertical soundings by interpolation introduces extraneous errors. The present paper is concerned with determination of the error in vertical extrapolations of surface winds, and of aircraft and satellite cloud‐tracked winds. In addition it examines the effect on accuracy of using location‐specific statistics compared to averaged statistics as the basis for the interpolation weighting scheme and compares errors of one‐ and two‐variable interpolations. Interpolation accuracy tests demonstrate the influence of the interpolation scheme on the quality of interpolated information used in forecast updating. The results show that the level of accuracy exceeds the benchmark provided by monthly mean forecast error values only with bivariate interpolation of wind components from off‐level data sources. 相似文献
7.
Abstract Anemometer‐measured winds for the period 5–13 March 1994 were used to study the coherence of observed and forecast coastal winds along the mid‐Labrador shelf. The reliability of these variables in predicting the response of the ocean and ice to wind forcing is an important issue for ice forecasting in this area. Two anemometer‐equipped 2‐m ice beacons were deployed on pack ice north of Wolf Island and a third beacon was deployed on Grady Island. The results indicate that due to the influence of local topography, 10‐m winds observed at the meteorological station in Cartwright, Labrador provide a poor estimate (r2 = 0.2) of wind conditions over the offshore sea‐ice. In contrast, the σ = 1 level (～10 m) winds from the Canadian Meteorological Centre's Regional Finite Element (RFE) model provided a better correlation with anemometer beacon winds (0.90 for the 6‐hour forecast down to 0.45 at 36 hours). However, the RFE model overestimates the magnitude of the winds by 10–40%. The response of the ocean and ice cover to wind forcing was measured by an ocean bottom‐mounted acoustic Doppler current proþler (ADCP). Relative to the 2‐m beacon winds, the ice moved at 2.5% of wind magnitude and turned 0.6° to the left of the wind. The ocean response decreased with depth until it reached a constant value of 0.9% of the wind speed. The turning angle increased from 0.3° to the right of the wind at 3.5 m to 50° at the lowest level measured by the ADCP (73 m depth). Approximately 57% of the variance in the ocean currents at 3 m below the surface can be attributed to the 2‐m winds; at 73 m the explained variance decreases to 27%. 相似文献
8.
Abstract Observations of the motion of ocean surface drifters are used to evaluate numerical simulations of surface currents in the region of Queen Charlotte Sound on the West Coast of Canada. More than 30 surface Argos drifters were deployed in the spring and summer of 1995, revealing daily average currents of 10 to 40 cm s–1 near the coast of Vancouver Island in summer, and less than 10 cm s–1 in mid‐sound. Wind observations in this region are provided by a network of weather buoys. Comparison of daily average drifter velocities and winds shows that the drifters moved at 2 to 3% of the wind speed, and at about 30 degrees to the right of the wind. A complex transfer function is computed between daily wind and drifter vectors using least squares techniques. The ratio of variance in the least squares residual currents to the variance of observed drifter currents is denoted γ2. A percent goodness‐of‐fit is defined as g(γ2) = 100(1 – γ2), and is 42% for the case of daily winds and drifter currents. Drifter‐measured currents are compared with two numerical simulations of surface currents: Fundy5, a steadystate baroclinic model based on historical water property measurements in summer, and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), a prognostic, baroclinic model forced by the measured winds. Fundy5 by itself provides a goodness‐of‐fit of only 3%, whereas POM has g(γ2) = 42%. The combination of Fundy5 plus daily wind gives g(γ2) = 43%. Although the prognostic model performs only as well as the winds by themselves, it simulates the near shore currents more accurately and reproduces the speeds and veering in the surface Ekman layer on average without bias. Residual currents unexplained by POM are likely due to advection of water masses into this region and horizontal inhomogeneities in the density field that are not input to the model, as well as to Stokes drift of wind waves and to net Lagrangian tidal motion not represented by the model. 相似文献
9.
Abstract The spatial characteristics of the wind speeds from ships, drilling platforms, and satellites (SASS and SMMR) were investigated through autocorrelation analysis. Values of the spatial correlation coefficient in minimum separation classes revealed that SASS winds contained the least noise, followed by drilling‐platform and SMMR winds, measured ship winds and estimated ship winds. The variances explained by wind‐speed observations within a 100‐km radius of each other were found to be 86, 72, 62, 48 and 41%, respectively. Ship wind‐speed estimates made during hours of darkness showed significantly higher noise than daytime reports. 相似文献
10.
Cloud motion data were compared to ship observations over the Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon, 1 May to 31 July 1979, with the objective of using the cloud data for estimating surface wind and ultimately the wind stress on the ocean. The cloud-ship comparison indicated that the cloud motions could be used to estimate surface winds within reasonable accuracy bounds, 2.6 m s-1 r.m.s. speeds and 22° to 44° r.m.s. directions (22° r.m.s. for winds < 10 m s-1). A body of statistics is presented which can be used to construct an empirical boundary layer with the eventual goal of producing a stress analysis for the summer MONEX from cloud motion data. 相似文献
11.
Carl Anderson 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):330-344
Abstract Surface mesonet winds recorded at 10‐min intervals are used to estimate the propagation velocities of atmospheric fronts in East Coast winter storms during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP). The frontal motion is modelled locally as the translation of a line across which there is an abrupt shift in wind direction. The mesonet is used to detect the propagation velocity of the windshift line. Frontal velocities estimated using mesonet winds for all cases in which fronts passed through the mesonet (two cold fronts and three warm fronts) are in close agreement with those deduced from synoptic charts. Recommendations are given for using the method as a research tool to estimate frontal motions in oceanographic studies of wind‐driven circulation. 相似文献
12.
Abstract Radiance criteria for distinguishing low, middle, and high clouds in the 9.5–11.5 μm band of the infrared are developed and used to produce local cloud maps. The performance of this radiance contrast method for mapping clouds from the earth's surface is evaluated with a view to using the technique for objective observation of cloud amount and distribution in the sky hemisphere. Discrimination radiance formulas are developed using a multilayer, wavenumber‐specific infrared radiative transfer model including cloud parameters measured by other workers and atmospheric conditions measured by radiosonde. The clear sky radiance (N0) is the dominant independent variable in the discrimination formulas. The variation of N0 with time (primarily due to changes in atmospheric water vapour content) and zenith angle are found to be important in distinguishing cirriform clouds from clear sky and other clouds. The local cloud maps are produced by applying the discrimination radiances (in voltage form) to the output from a narrow‐view infrared radiometer pointed at a sky‐scanning mirror. It is necessary to assume that the radiance from a cloud observed at the surface decreases unambiguously with an increase in cloud base height. Cloud maps for five days in July 1978 indicate the mapping technique shows promise under a wide range of sky conditions. Cloud motions rapidly degrade the maps’ quality over time‐scales that are much less than the current manual cloud sampling period of 1 h. 相似文献
13.
Abstract Short‐ and long‐wave sky radiances measured with an all‐sky automatic recording radiometer are used to infer the sky cloud‐cover conditions at 10‐min intervals (night) and 20‐min intervals (day). During the day a simple net short‐wave detector provides supplementary data and can be employed as a clear‐sky indicator. This system of cloud detection is controlled by a PET microcomputer and provides a basis for the automatic computer programmed estimation of cloud cover. 相似文献
14.
Abstract An extensive set of measurements of currents, winds, subsurface pressures and water properties was undertaken in the summer of 1982 in Queen Charlotte Sound on the west coast of Canada. At most observation sites the summer‐averaged currents are found to be about 10 cm s?1, smaller than the tidal currents but comparable to the standard deviation of the non‐tidal currents. The strongest average flow was the outflow of surface water past Cape St James at the northwestern corner of the Sound. During strong winds from the north or northwest a strong outflow of near‐surface fresher water was also observed over Cook Bank in the south. Eddies dominate the motion in the interior of the Sound, as shown by the behaviour of a near‐surface drifter that remained in mid‐Sound for 40 days before a storm pushed it into Hecate Strait. The disorganized, weak currents in the central Sound will likely allow surface waters or floating material to remain there for periods of several weeks in summer. Empirical orthogonal function analyses of fluctuating currents, subsurface pressures and winds reveal that a single mode explains most of the wind and pressure variance but not the current variance. The first two pressure modes represent two distinct physical processes. The first mode is a nearly uniform, up‐and‐down pumping of the surface, while the second mode tilts across the basin from east to west, likely due to geostrophic adjustment of wind‐driven currents. This mode also tilts from south to north, owing to along‐strait wind stress. Most contributions to the first mode currents come from meters near shore or the edge of a trough. Coherence is high between these second mode pressures and first mode currents and winds, and lower but still significant between first mode pressures and first mode currents and winds. It is therefore difficult to predict the behaviour of currents in Queen Charlotte Sound in summer from pressure measurements at a single site, but the difference in sea‐level across Hecate Strait is a more reliable indicator. 相似文献
15.
Abstract Forecast ice drift rates and thicknesses displayed on daily ice charts and forecast winds for the Canadian east coast are compared to on‐ice observations made during the second Canadian Atlantic Storm Program (CASP II) of March 1992. Observed and 24‐hour forecasts of daily ice drift rates were weakly correlated even though long‐term means closely matched observations. Daily drift rates have an RMS error of 13 cm s‐1 relative to a 15 cm s‐1 mean in addition to an RMS direction error of 50 degrees. Contributions towards daily drift uncertainties were: the estimation of winds, unmodelled physics of ocean and ice cover processes; and the inconsistency in the methods used by the ice forecaster. Correlation coefficients between forecast winds and on‐ice observed winds decreased from 0.8 at 0‐hour to 0.7 for the 30‐hour forecast. Similar results were found between ice drift rates from forecast winds. Histograms of ice thicknesses observed along narrow swaths using a helicopter‐towed electromagnetic sensor compared well with undeformed ice thicknesses representing large areas on ice charts, with differences mainly caused by difference in ice type representation and by co‐registering the two data sets. 相似文献
16.
FY-2C云迹风资料同化应用对台风预报的影响试验研究 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
针对0505号台风“海棠”, 采用WRF区域中尺度模式进行控制试验和两个同化试验, 利用WRF-3DVAR同化系统同化FY-2C红外和水汽两个通道云迹风反演产品, 同化分云迹风经质量控制和未经质量控制两组同化试验。通过三组试验分析云迹风资料对降水和风场等的预报结果的影响, 并进行24小时降水量分级Ts评分检验以及风场点对点检验。结果表明: 同化经质量控制云迹风资料可以提高降水落区和强度预报的准确度, 不同等级的Ts评分较其它试验都有较明显改进; 风场预报模拟也有所改善。增加两例台风, 使用与“海棠” 相似的处理方法进行模拟试验, 并对模拟结果24小时降水分析与检验, 得到与“海棠”类似结论。因此, 经过合理性选择的云迹风资料的加入, 有利于补充初始场中可能未包含的中尺度信息, 从而提高试验中对于降水、风场等的模拟效果, 提高WRF模式的模拟预报能力。 相似文献
17.
The persistence of light surface winds (less than or equal to 3 m s?1 or 7 mi h?1) is one meteorological factor in air pollution potential. Surface wind data were obtained from 111 Canadian synoptic and aviation weather stations for the period 1957–66. Generally speaking, persistent light winds occur most frequently in British Columbia, the Yukon and northern Alberta. In the ten provinces of Canada, the frequency of occurrence of light winds is a minimum in the spring and a maximum in the winter. In the Yukon and the Northwest Territories it is a minimum in the summer and a maximum in the winter. The seasonal variation is least in the mountain valleys and greatest elsewhere. The spatial and seasonal variations in persistent light winds suggest that, in the mountain valleys, topography is the major factor, while in other regions synoptic weather patterns are relatively important. 相似文献
18.
Abstract Analytical solutions to the equations of growth and motion of hailstones in updrafts with cloud water contents that vary linearly with height are used to investigate hail growth in a model cloud. The model storm is steady and two‐dimensional and is constructed by compositing sections with linear variations of vertical air velocity and cloud water content so as to approximate the Fleming storm. Hail embryos are introduced at various positions in the updraft and their subsequent history calculated. A strong correlation is found between the embryo starting position and its trajectory and final size. Embryos starting in the central portions of the updraft are carried up rapidly and displaced far from the updraft. Embryos starting near the upshear edge of the updrafr have a simple arcing up and down trajectory and produce small hailstones that can be expected to melt before reaching the ground. Embryos starting near the downshear edge of the updraft give rise to the largest hailstones and have recirculating trajectories. Effects of changing some of the model parameters are investigated. 相似文献
19.
R. G. Tapp 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1985,33(4):397-414
Up to 30 months of near-surface anemograph records have been examined from 13 locations in and near Melbourne, Australia, to determine the wind patterns which existed during prolonged periods of light winds (at least 3 hours at 2 m s-1 or less). A coherent katabatic wind system was found to develop in at least part of the monitored region on approximately 30% of nights. The flow broadly followed the slope of the basin surrounding the city, with a strong flow down the main river valley, and was partly reinforced by a land breeze in bayside areas. Other valleys also acted as channels for these winds. The general tendency of these katabatic winds was to converge towards the central business district and the northern part of Port Phillip Bay adjacent to the city centre. Where winds from different directions interacted, one of the winds dominated or successive replacement occurred causing the wind direction to vary considerably during a period.There were indications that in the presence of low-level stability with a synoptic gradient wind between east and north, the gradient flow may be deflected around the major topographic barrier to the northeast of the city. The existence of such a situation would have major implications in terms of air quality due to the possibility of pollutants being recirculated in conditions when vertical diffusion was very limited. 相似文献
20.
DEVELOPING AND NON-DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS REVEALED BY HIGH DENSITY CLOUD MOTION WINDS 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
An algorithm for computation of cloud motion winds has been developed at the National Satellite
Meteorological Center in China. Since 1997, it has been applied to calculate the cloud motion winds for a 1.25
lat. 1.25 long. mesh over the northwest Pacific region with the satellite data from GMS-5. The development
of the tropical cyclones is studied. It shows that the tropical cyclone is usually intrigued by the westerly jet
streams at the upper levels of the troposphere, which may be caused by mid-latitude troughs well extending into
the tropics. During the prime season of summer, the westerly flowing equatorward of the TUTT may also be a
cause for the generation of typhoons. 相似文献