共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 109 毫秒
1.
Considering the dependent relationship among wave height, wind speed, and current velocity, we construct novel trivariate joint probability distributions via Archimedean copula functions. Total 30-year data of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity in the Bohai Sea are hindcast and sampled for case study. Four kinds of distributions, namely, Gumbel distribution, lognormal distribution, Weibull distribution, and Pearson Type III distribution, are candidate models for marginal distributions of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity. The Pearson Type III distribution is selected as the optimal model. Bivariate and trivariate probability distributions of these environmental conditions are established based on four bivariate and trivariate Archimedean copulas, namely, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel-Hougaard, and Ali-Mikhail-Haq copulas. These joint probability models can maximize marginal information and the dependence among the three variables. The design return values of these three variables can be obtained by three methods: univariate probability, conditional probability, and joint probability. The joint return periods of different load combinations are estimated by the proposed models. Platform responses (including base shear, overturning moment, and deck displacement) are further calculated. For the same return period, the design values of wave height, wind speed, and current velocity obtained by the conditional and joint probability models are much smaller than those by univariate probability. Considering the dependence among variables, the multivariate probability distributions provide close design parameters to actual sea state for ocean platform design. 相似文献
2.
Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures. However, frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level, whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge. The two impacting factors are both random variables, and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine extreme design water levels. The lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type 3, traditional maximum entropy, and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately, and the bivariate normal, Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions. To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data, the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed. Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen hydrological station in the Pearl River Basin, China, these probability models are applied to obtain designs for extreme water levels using the largest sum of the astronomical tide and storm surge obtained under fixed joint return periods. These design values provide an improved approach for determining the necessary height of coastal and offshore structures. 相似文献
3.
《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,(5)
Jacket-type offshore platforms are widely used for oil, gas field, and energy development in shallow water. The design of a jacket structure is highly dependent on target environmental variables. This study focuses on a strategy to estimate design loads for offshore jacket structures based on an environmental contour approach. In addition to the popular conditional distribution model, various classes of bivariate copulas are adopted to construct joint distributions of environmental variables. Analytical formulations of environmental contours based on various models are presented and discussed in this study. The design loads are examined by dynamic response analysis of jacket platform. Results suggest that the conditional model is not recommended for use in estimating design loads in sampling locations due to poor fitting results. Independent copula produces conservative design loads and the extreme response obtained using the conditional model are smaller than those determined by copulas. The suitability of a model for contour construction varies with the origin of wave data. This study provides a reference for the design load estimation of jacket structures and offers an alternative procedure to determine the design criteria for offshore structures. 相似文献
4.
为了更好地描述暴雨多变量特征,构建以GPD为边缘分布的泊松-二维Copula复合极值模型,并将其应用于成都温江站暴雨雨量和暴雨雨峰的联合概率分布计算,研究表明该模型:理论联合频率与经验联合频率吻合较好,能用于暴雨联合分布的计算;考虑了暴雨过程出现的频次,增加了概率模型的物理内涵,选取独立的暴雨过程极大值作为样本,克服了GPD阈值选取的随意性;可以推广应用于连续分布为其他的Copula函数的情形,具有广泛的应用前景。 相似文献
5.
Linear wave theory and Longuet-Higgins and Steward's (1964) group-induced second-order longweve (GSLW) theory ware used in this study on the grouping effect on wave forces acting on a verticalbreakwater. The calculated variance of total wave pressure on the vertical breakwater was closer tothe measured value if the wave grouping effect was considered. 相似文献
6.
This study develops an analytical solution for oblique wave interaction with a comb-type caisson breakwater based on linear potential theory. The fluid domain is divided into inner and outer regions according to the geometrical shape of breakwater. By using periodic boundary condition and separation of variables, series solutions of velocity potentials in inner and outer regions are developed. Unknown expansion coefficients in series solutions are determined by matching velocity and pressure of continuous conditions on the interface between two regions. Then, hydrodynamic quantities involving reflection coefficients and wave forces acting on breakwater are estimated. Analytical solution is validated by a multi-domain boundary element method solution for the present problem. Diffusion reflection due to periodic variations in breakwater shape and corresponding surface elevations around the breakwater are analyzed. Numerical examples are also presented to examine effects of caisson parameters on total wave forces acting on caissons and total wave forces acting on side plates. Compared with a traditional vertical wall breakwater, the wave force acting on a suitably designed comb-type caisson breakwater can be significantly reduced. This study can give a better understanding of the hydrodynamic performance of comb-type caisson breakwaters. 相似文献
7.
The Oscillating Water Column(OWC)wave energy convertor with the advantage of its simple geometrical construction and excellent stability is widely employed. Recently, perforated breakwaters have been often used as they can effectively reduce the wave reflection from and wave forces acting on the structures. Considering the similarity between the compartment of perforated caisson and the air chamber of OWC wave energy convertor, a new perforated caisson of breakwater is designed in this paper. The ordinary caisson is modified by installing facilities similar to the air chamber of OWC convener, but here they are utilized to dissipate the wave energy inside the caisson. Such an arrangement improves the stability of the caisson and reduces the construction cost by using the compartment of perforated caisson like using an air chamber. This innovation has both academic significance and important engineering value. For a new type of caisson, reliability analysis of the structure is necessary. Linear potential flow theory is applied to calculate the horizontal wave force acting on the caisson. The calculated results are compared with experimental data, showing the feasibility of the method. The Importance Sampling Procedure(ISP)is used to analyse the reliability of this caisson breakwater. 相似文献
8.
Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design.Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design values.This frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability analysis.The definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are summarized.Then joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger risk.Based on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution,joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai Sea.The calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor,such as wave height or wind speed,is small,their combinations can lead to larger joint return periods.Proper design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field. 相似文献
9.
The parameters of principal and directional extrema in a marine environment are important in marine engineering design, especially
for appropriate construction of oceanic platforms and other structures. When designing wave walls and break water structures,
the orientation of the breakwater or seawall depends mainly on the direction of the strongest waves. However, the strength
of the breakwater and the elevation of the seawall depend on the magnitude of the biggest wave height of the strongest waves.
Thus, identification of directional extrema plays an important role in the design of wave factors. When calculating the directional
extremum, different materials may require different specific computational methods, yet few theoretical studies have been
conducted in this field of research. Based on multivariate extremum statistical theory, this paper utilizes a discrete random
variable to build a joint probability model compounded by a discrete random variable and a multivariate continuous random
variable. Furthermore, this paper provides the first investigation on the theories and methodologies to deduce wave directional
extrema. The results provide tools for both creating the calculation method of the directional extremum value and providing
the rational directional extremum parameters for marine engineering design. 相似文献
10.
Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention. 相似文献
11.
《中国海洋湖沼学报》2019,(6)
When investigating the long-term variation of wave characteristics as associated with storm surges in the Bohai Sea, the Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN) model and ADvanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC) model were coupled to simulate 32 storm surges between 1985 and 2014. This simulation was validated by reproducing three actual wave processes, showing that the simulated significant wave height(SWH) and mean wave period agreed well with the actual measurements. In addition, the long-term variations in SWH, patterns in SWH extremes along the Bohai Sea coast, the 100-year return period SWH extreme distribution, and waves conditional probability distribution were calculated and analyzed. We find that the trend of SWH extremes in most of the coastal stations was negative, among which the largest trend was-0.03 m/a in the western part of Liaodong Bay. From the 100-year return period of the SWH distribution calculated in the Gumbel method, we find that the SWH extremes associated with storm surges decreased gradually from the center of the Bohai Sea to the coast. In addition, the joint probability of wave and surge for the entire Bohai Sea in 100-year return period was determined by the Gumbel logistic method. We therefore, assuming a minimum surge of one meter across the entire Bohai Sea, obtained the spatial SWH distribution. The conclusions of this study are significant for offshore and coastal engineering design. 相似文献
12.
With the increasing application of floating platforms in deep waters and harsh environments,a proper assessment of the reliability of floating structures is important to ensure that these structures can operate safely during their design lives.This study outlines a practical methodology for reliability analysis of a semi-submersible platform based estimating the probability distribution of the extreme response in rough sea conditions(survival conditions).The Constrained NewWave(CNW)theory combined with Monte Carlo simulations was first applied to simulate the random wave surface elevation process in the time domain.A Gumbel distribution was the best fitting to describe the dynamically sensitive extreme response statistics under extreme waves(drift and mooring tension).The derived probability distribution of the extreme response was subsequently used in estimation of the associated limit state func-tion,and a reliability analysis of the floating structure was conducted using the Monte Carlo method.A semi-submersible platform in a water depth of 1500 m subjected to extreme wave loads was used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.The probability of failure of the semi-submersible when considering mooring lines tension is greater than considering drift. 相似文献
13.
沿山脊走向的长输油气管道在我国西部山区常有分布,强震作用下其动力响应直接关系到管道的安全运营,实际管道工程建设中亟需相关研究结果提供指导。依托云南玉溪龙马槽村段此类输油管道工程,考虑山坡的工程地质特征,对管道与坡体进行整体三维数值建模,采用有限差分方法FLAC3D进行数值模拟,基于汶川地震波,计算得到了水平地震加速度峰值、震后等典型时刻的管道位移、轴力、剪力和弯矩及坡体稳定性等地震动力响应特征。结果表明,管道内力最大值出现于震后时刻,地震作用使管道轴力达到较高水平,而剪力与弯矩值的量级仅占最大轴力的约1%;竖向地震波对管道内力影响较小,管道受力的不利部位出现在其与断层交界附近。地震过程中管道水平方向存在较多的弹性变形,竖向则存在较多的塑性变形,管道累计变形是影响其内力的主要因素,管道内力最大值出现于震后时刻。 相似文献
14.
利用成都１９３３～１９９２年间的地面最低气温年极值记录，采用韦伯分布和耿贝尔分布，分别对其进行了渐近分布拟合。通过统计推断，找出了成都地面最低气温年极值所遵循的最佳渐近分布——韦伯分布。 相似文献
15.
In considering the vertical heat transport problems in the upper ocean, the flat upper boundary approximation for the free
surface and the horizontal homogenous hypothesis are usually applied. However, due to the existence of the wave motion, the
application of this approximation may result in some errors to the solar irradiation since it decays quickly in respect to
the actual thickness of the water layer below the surface; on the other hand, due to the fluctuation of the water layer depth,
it is improper to neglect the effects of the horizontal advection and turbulent diffusion since they also contribute to the
vertical heat transport. A new model is constructed in this study to reflect these effects. The corresponding numerical simulations
show that the wave motion may remarkably accelerate the vertical heat transferring process and the variation of the temperature
in the wave affected layer appears in an oscillating manner.
Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2006AA09A309); China
Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 20070411111) and the Fund of Shandong Province for the Excellent Post-Doctors (No. 200603056) 相似文献
16.
推导三维形变数据的四边形法计算地壳主应变、剪应变的解析表达式,结合汶川地区2005~2008三维空间监测数据,计算该地区水平、垂直主应变和剪应变。结果表明,汶川、映秀地区的水平主应变在东西方向处于挤压状态,主断裂带东南区域的垂直主应变为正值,西北区域为负值,与研究区域东南部地表下沉、西北部地表抬升相关。主应变最大值出现在Y(东)方向,剪应变最大值出现在XY(北东)方向,汶川区域处于主应变和剪应变的高梯度带,与地震发生位置相吻合。 相似文献
17.
Resonance due to critical slope makes the internal wave generation more effectively than that due to supercritical or subcritical slopes(Zhang et al., 2008). Submarine ridges make a greater contribution to ocean mixing than continental margins in global oceans(Müller, 1977; Bell, 1975; Baines, 1982; Morozov, 1995). In this paper, internal wave generation driven by tidal flow over critical topography is examined in laboratory using Particle Image Velocimetry(PIV) and synthetic schlieren methods in synchrony. Non-tidal baroclinic velocities and vertical isopycnal displacements are observed in three representative regions, i.e., critical, outward-propagating, and reflection regions. Temporal and spatial distributions of internal wave rays are analyzed using the time variations of baroclinic velocities and vertical isopycnal displacement, and the results are consistent with those by the linear internal wave theory. Besides, the width of wave beam changes with the outward propagation of internal waves. Finally, through monitoring the uniformly-spaced 14 vertical profiles in the x-z plane, the internal wave fields of density and velocity fields are constructed. Thus, available potential energy, kinetic energy and energy fluxes are determined quantitatively. The distributions of baroclinic energy and energy fluxes are confined along the internal wave rays. The total depth averaged energy and energy flux of vertical profiles away from a ridge are both larger than those near the ridge. 相似文献
18.
《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2015,(4)
China's newly enacted Breakwater Design Specifications(JTS154-2011) explicitly state that breakwaters with water depths greater than 20 m are categorized as deep-water breakwaters, and emphasize that design principles, methods and construction requirements are different from those of common shallow water breakwaters. However, the specifications do not make any mention of how to choose wave force calculation methods of deep-water breakwaters. To study the feasibility of different formulae for wave force estimation of deep water combined breakwaters, the wave force calculated by the Sainflou's, Goda's, modified Goda's and specifications' methods are compared for various water depths and wave heights in this paper. The calculated results are also compared with experimental data. The total horizontal forcing and the pattern of pressure distributions are presented. Comparisons show that the wave pressure distributions by the four methods are similar, but the total horizontal forces are different. The results obtained by the Goda's method and the specified formulae are much closer to the experimental data. As for the wave force estimation for the deepwater mixed embankment foundation bed parapet, the Goda's formula is applied in the case with a water depth of less than 42 m. The Specifications method is suitable for standing waves. In the wave force estimates of breastworks, Sainflou's and the modified Gaoda's formulae are no longer applicable for the foundation bed of mixed embankment. 相似文献
19.
Based on the extreme value theory,self-affinity,and scale invariance,we studied the temporal and spatial relationship and the variation of water level and established a model of Gumbel-Pareto distribution for designed flood calculation.The model includes the previous extreme value models,the over-threshold data,and the fractal features shared by previous extreme value models.The model was simplified into a logarithmic normal distribution and a Pareto distribution for specific parameter values,and was used to calculate the designed flood values for the Shanghai Wusong Station in 100-and 1 000-year return periods.The calculated results show that the value of the designed flood height calculated in the Gumbel-Pareto distribution is between those in the Gumbel and Pearson-III distributions.The designed flood values in the100-and 1 000-year return periods of the model were 0.0 3%and 0.11%lower,respectively,than the Gumbel distribution and 0.06%and 1.54%higher,respectively,than the Pearson-III distribution.Compared to the traditional model based solely on extreme probability,the Gumbel-Pareto distribution model could better describe the probabilistic characteristics of extreme marine elements and better use the data. 相似文献
20.
Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution
models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing
the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using
Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period
is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical
mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only
changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but
also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution,
and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution
and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases.
The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37°27.6′ N, 122°15.1′ E), China, are used
to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different
spectral widths (ν=0.3−0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988)
distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that
the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions
do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory. 相似文献