共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model. 相似文献
2.
This study describes how risk-based risk control allocation models work. We begin by discussing the economic rationale for allocating risk control in a diversified organization such as an enterprise. For a probability model for risk control decision making under uncertainty and risk, we propose a model involving stochastic total loss amount constraints with respect to various tolerable default levels. Our main objective is to develop a method that will allow shaping of the risk associated with risk control outcomes. The direct and indirect losses caused by simulated disasters can be estimated using an engineering and financial analysis model. Based on this model, we can generate an exceeding probability curve and then calculate how much of the loss can be eliminated or transferred to other entities should funds be allocated to risk control. The optimal natural disaster risk control arrangement with a probabilistic formulation is explained in this paper. Results from the proposed formulations are compared in case studies. The model attempts to apply risk-based budget guidelines to risk reduction measurement within a portfolio-based risk framework. 相似文献
3.
The least squares Monte Carlo method is a decision evaluation method that can capture the effect of uncertainty and the value of flexibility of a process. The method is a stochastic approximate dynamic programming approach to decision making. It is based on a forward simulation coupled with a recursive algorithm which produces the near-optimal policy. It relies on the Monte Carlo simulation to produce convergent results. This incurs a significant computational requirement when using this method to evaluate decisions for reservoir engineering problems because this requires running many reservoir simulations. The objective of this study was to enhance the performance of the least squares Monte Carlo method by improving the sampling method used to generate the technical uncertainties used in obtaining the production profiles. The probabilistic collocation method has been proven to be a robust and efficient uncertainty quantification method. By using the sampling methods of the probabilistic collocation method to approximate the sampling of the technical uncertainties, it is possible to significantly reduce the computational requirement of running the decision evaluation method. Thus, we introduce the least squares probabilistic collocation method. The decision evaluation considered a number of technical and economic uncertainties. Three reservoir case studies were used: a simple homogeneous model, the PUNQ-S3 model, and a modified portion of the SPE10 model. The results show that using the sampling techniques of the probabilistic collocation method produced relatively accurate responses compared with the original method. Different possible enhancements were discussed in order to practically adapt the least squares probabilistic collocation method to more realistic and complex reservoir models. Furthermore, it is desired to perform the method to evaluate high-dimensional decision scenarios for different chemical enhanced oil recovery processes using real reservoir data. 相似文献
4.
5.
We propose a workflow for decision making under uncertainty aiming at comparing different field development plan scenarios. The approach applies to mature fields where the residual uncertainty is estimated using a probabilistic inversion approach. Moreover, a robust optimization method is presented to optimize controllable parameters in the presence of uncertainty. The key element of this approach is the use of response surface model to reduce the very high number of simulator model evaluations that are classically needed to perform such workflows. The major issue is to be able to build an efficient and reliable response surface. This is achieved using a Gaussian process (kriging) statistical model and using a particular training set (experimental design) developed to take into account the variable correlation induced by the probabilistic inversion process. For the problem of optimization under uncertainty, an iterative training set is proposed, aiming at refining the response surface iteratively such as to effectively reduce approximation errors and converging faster to the true solution. The workflow is illustrated on a realistic test case of a mature field where the approach is used to compare two new development plan scenarios both in terms of expectation and of risk mitigation and to optimize well position parameters in the presence of uncertainty. 相似文献
6.
7.
Dang Luo 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1419-1431
Risk evaluation for natural disasters is an important part of the emergency management, disaster prevention and mitigation. Because of the complexity and uncertainty of practical evaluation problems, the evaluation information available generally needs depiction of interval gray numbers instead of real numbers. This paper presents an evaluation method with three-parameter interval gray numbers which can deal with dynamic multiple indicators in order to evaluate efficiently the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River in China. The gray range transformation is introduced into the process of model building to eliminate the incomparability of different dimensions. Moreover, model GM(1,1) is used to simulate and predict the development trend of risk vector. As the results show, while the ice-jam disaster risk of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River reveals certain wave characteristics, the overall trend remains smooth. The risk degree of ice-jam disaster with Bayangol and Toudaoguai is expected to decrease in the years between 2013 and 2015, while that with Sanhu River tends to increase. 相似文献
8.
9.
Risk identification on hydropower project using the IAHP and extension of TOPSIS methods under interval-valued fuzzy environment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Risk identification on hydropower project, the first step of risk management process, is an extremely complex issue and has a significant impact on the efficiency of the following risk assessment and control. On the other hand, finding out some more possible risk factors among many risk ones is a multi-criteria decision making problem. This paper develops an evaluation model based on the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and extension of technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), to identify exactly the more possible risk factors under a complex and fuzzy environment. In this paper, the IAHP is used to analyze the structure of risk identification problems in hydropower project and to determine weights of the criteria and decision makers, and extension of TOPSIS method with interval data is used to obtain final ranking of potential risk factors in hydropower project. Risk identification on an earth dam is conducted to illustrate the utilization of the model proposed in this paper. The application could be interpreted as demonstrating the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model. 相似文献
10.
在西方市场经济和矿产政策环境下，矿业作为一种商务活动毫不例外地服唑市场经济的运行规则。矿业公司作为投资者在其投资决策过程中必须解决三个基本问题，即：找什么矿（市场），在哪里找矿（勘查），找什么规模的矿（开发、生产）。矿产经济评价作为一种手段在矿产投资决策过程中起非常重要的作用。矿产经济评价主要以现金流量和资金的时间价值为基础，考虑到税制因素和通货膨胀的影响，得出一系列静态（总收益、项目规模、相对成本、返还期）和动态（年等值、净现值、现值比、回报率）的经济指标。然后将地质、工程、市场和政策法规等信息作为一个“输入”变量，对矿业项目进行期望值分析、敏感度分析和风险度分析，为之后的投资决策提供直观可靠的参数。 相似文献
11.
12.
An appropriate multiple criteria decision making method for solving electricity planning problems, addressing sustainability issue 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
N. Bagheri Moghaddam M. Nasiri S. M. Mousavi 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2011,8(3):605-620
In the past, decision making within the energy sector, especially in Iran, was limited to economic analysis. Lately, multiple criteria decision making has gained great popularity. However, this is not enough to make a right decision by considering sustainability. This paper deals with designing an appropriate multiple criteria decision making method to address the multifaceted nature of such problems. This task is the second precondition to make a decision which meets the sustainability criterion. This is done by revealing new facts about quantitative and qualitative data and the degree of compensation between the criteria. Moreover, this paper illustrates the capability of different methods with regard to sustainable energy planning and management in two steps: 1) comparison of two main approaches in the strategic energy planning context; 2) evaluation of multi attribute decision making methods and combining them. Combining four methods including Analytical hierarchy process, Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation II, geometric mean and weighted sum seems to result in designing an appropriate method which meets the sustainability criterion. These contributions are proposed for comparing the renewable energy technologies with non-renewable ones. Nevertheless, these seem to be applicable in any comparison between discrete alternatives in the energy sector. 相似文献
13.
Probabilistic Fuzzy Logic Modeling: Quantifying Uncertainty of Mineral Prospectivity Models Using Monte Carlo Simulations 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Significant uncertainties are associated with the definition of both the exploration targeting criteria and computational algorithms used to generate mineral prospectivity maps. In prospectivity modeling, the input and computational uncertainties are generally made implicit, by making a series of best-guess or best-fit decisions, on the basis of incomplete and imprecise information. The individual uncertainties are then compounded and propagated into the final prospectivity map as an implicit combined uncertainty which is impossible to directly analyze and use for decision making. This paper proposes a new approach to explicitly define uncertainties of individual targeting criteria and propagate them through a computational algorithm to evaluate the combined uncertainty of a prospectivity map. Applied to fuzzy logic prospectivity models, this approach involves replacing point estimates of fuzzy membership values by statistical distributions deemed representative of likely variability of the corresponding fuzzy membership values. Uncertainty is then propagated through a fuzzy logic inference system by applying Monte Carlo simulations. A final prospectivity map is represented by a grid of statistical distributions of fuzzy prospectivity. Such modeling of uncertainty in prospectivity analyses allows better definition of exploration target quality, as understanding of uncertainty is consistently captured, propagated and visualized in a transparent manner. The explicit uncertainty information of prospectivity maps can support further risk analysis and decision making. The proposed probabilistic fuzzy logic approach can be used in any area of geosciences to model uncertainty of complex fuzzy systems. 相似文献
14.
Kurt R. Petvipusit Ahmed H. Elsheikh Tara C. Laforce Peter R. King Martin J. Blunt 《Computational Geosciences》2014,18(5):763-778
Geologic CO2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions. Designing optimal CO2 injection strategy becomes a challenging problem in the presence of geological uncertainty. We propose a surrogate assisted optimisation technique for robust optimisation of CO2 injection strategies. The surrogate is built using Adaptive Sparse Grid Interpolation (ASGI) to accelerate the optimisation of CO2 injection rates. The surrogate model is adaptively built with different numbers of evaluation points (simulation runs) in different dimensions to allow automatic refinement in the dimension where added resolution is needed. This technique is referred to as dimensional adaptivity and provides a good balance between the accuracy of the surrogate model and the number of simulation runs to save computational costs. For a robust design, we propose a utility function which comprises the statistical moment of the objective function. Numerical testing of the proposed approach applied to benchmark functions and reservoir models shows the efficiency of the method for the robust optimisation of CO2 injection strategies under geological uncertainty. 相似文献
15.
A. Afsordegan M. Sánchez N. Agell S. Zahedi L. V. Cremades 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2016,13(6):1419-1432
Multi-criteria decision-making methods support decision makers in all stages of the decision-making process by providing useful data. However, criteria are not always certain as uncertainty is a feature of the real world. MCDM methods under uncertainty and fuzzy systems are accepted as suitable techniques in conflicting problems that cannot be represented by numerical values, in particular in energy analysis and planning. In this paper, a modified TOPSIS method for multi-criteria group decision-making with qualitative linguistic labels is proposed. This method addresses uncertainty considering different levels of precision. Each decision maker’s judgment on the performance of alternatives with respect to each criterion is expressed by qualitative linguistic labels. The new method takes into account linguistic data provided by the decision makers without any previous aggregation. Decision maker judgments are incorporated into the proposed method to generate a complete ranking of alternatives. An application in energy planning is presented as an illustrative case example in which energy policy alternatives are ranked. Seven energy alternatives under nine criteria were evaluated according to the opinion of three environmental and energy experts. The weights of the criteria are determined by fuzzy AHP, and the alternatives are ranked using qualitative TOPSIS. The proposed approach is compared with a modified fuzzy TOPSIS method, showing the advantages of the proposed approach when dealing with linguistic assessments to model uncertainty and imprecision. Although the new approach requires less cognitive effort to decision makers, it yields similar results. 相似文献
16.
Economic evaluation of structural and non-structural flood risk management measures: examples from the Mulde River 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
The concept of flood risk management, promoted by the EU Floods Directive, tries to mitigate flood risks not only by structural, hydraulic engineering measures, but also by non-structural measures, like, e.g., land-use planning, warning and evacuation systems. However, few methods currently exist for the economic evaluation of such non-structural measures and, hence, their comparison with structural measures. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential benefits of employing a wider range of economic appraisal methods for flood projects, in particular, it provides examples and applications of methodologies which may be employed to evaluate non-structural measures and their transaction costs. In two case studies at the Mulde River, Germany, two non-structural measures, a resettlement option and a warning system, are evaluated and compared with structural alternatives with regard to their effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and efficiency. Furthermore, a simple approach is tested in order to show the transaction costs of these measures. Case study results show that the choice of evaluation criteria can have a major impact on the assessment results. In this regard, efficiency as an evaluation criterion can be considered as superior to cost-effectiveness and effectiveness as it is also able to consider sufficiently the impacts of non-structural measures. Furthermore, case study results indicate that transaction costs could play an important role, especially with non-structural measures associated with land-use changes. This could explain why currently these kinds of measures are rarely selected by decision makers. 相似文献
17.
The assessment of the risks associated with contamination by elevated levels of pollutants is a major issue in most parts
of the world. The risk arises from the presence of a pollutant and from the uncertainty associated with estimating its concentration,
extent and trajectory. The uncertainty in the assessment comes from the difficulty of measuring the pollutant concentration
values accurately at any given location and the impossibility of measuring it at all locations within a study zone. Estimations
tend to give smoothed versions of reality, with the smoothing effect being inversely proportional to the amount of data. If
risk is a measure of the probability of pollutant concentrations exceeding specified thresholds, then the variability is the
key feature in risk assessment and risk analysis. For this reason, geostatistical simulations provide an appropriate way of
quantifying risk by simulating possible “realities” and determining how many of these realities exceed the contamination thresholds,
and, finally, provides a means of visualizing risk and the geological causes of risk. This study concerns multivariate simulations
of organic and inorganic pollutants measured in terrain samples to assess the uncertainty for the risk analysis of a contaminated
site, an industrial site in northern Italy that has to be remediated. The main geostatistical tools are used to model the
local uncertainty of pollutant concentrations, which prevail at any unsampled site, in particular by means of stochastic simulation.
These models of uncertainty have been used in the decision-making processes to identify the areas targeted for remediation. 相似文献
18.
19.
D. Peptenatu Ph.D. R. D. Pintilii Ph.D. C. Draghici Ph.D. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2011,8(4):737-746
Urban settlements of regional importance from Romania impose within the national settlements system by their ability to converge material and human flows, leading to important unbalances in the relationships between the components of territorial systems. The status they held, both in the communist period and at present, made the economic activities developed in a short time exceed the adapting ability of the other components of the territorial system, the natural environment strongly feeling the industrialisation pressure. Identifying the specificities of the environmental risk management at the level of development poles of regional importance was done by detailed analyses accomplished in Craiova, a representative town for the high concentration of economic activities strongly pressing upon the natural environment. The construction of the model of environmental risk management supposes the classifying of risks by a series of criteria, a model which constitutes a useful instrument for the decision factors. The management of unbalances from the territorial systems determined by industrialisation is one of the major preoccupations of the decision factors from Romania, in order to be aligned to the European environment standards. 相似文献