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1.
It is a widely accepted idea that hydrologically triggered deep-seated landslides are initiated by an increase in pore-water pressure on potential slip surface induced by rising groundwater level after prolonged period of intense rainfall although the process is not fully understood. In order to contribute to better understanding, the rainfall–groundwater relationships, hydrogeological monitoring and repeated geoelectrical imaging were carried out from March 2007 to April 2011 in large deep-seated landslide near ?ubietová (Western Carpathians) catastrophically reactivated at the end of February 1977. Based on our observations, groundwater level (GWL) response to precipitation differs considerably with respect to both overall hydrological conditions and GWL mean depth. While the rate of GWL increase up to 25 cm/day were measured after some rainfall events during wet periods, noticeably lower recharge rate (up to 1–2 cm/day) and delayed GWL response to rainfall (usually from 2 weeks to 2–4 months) were observed at the beginning of the wet season after considerable depression of GWLs due to previous effective rainfall deficit. Likewise, slow GWL fluctuations without short-term oscillations are typical for deeper GWLs. Thus, long-term (several seasons to several years) hydrological conditions affect markedly groundwater response to rainfall events in the studied landslide and can be crucial for its behaviour. Comparison of hydrological conditions characterising the analysed period with those that accompanied the landslide reactivation in 1977 allow us to assume that slightly above-average rainy season following the prolonged wet period can be far more responsible for movement acceleration (and possibly failure initiation) in deep landslides than the isolated season of extreme precipitation following a longer dry period. This is true especially for landslides in regions with significant seasonal temperature changes where potential effective precipitation (PEP), calculated as excess of precipitation (P) over potential evapotranspiration (PET), may be efficiently used for estimation of slope saturation condition. 相似文献
2.
使用1951-2004年中国738个测站逐日降水资料,采用百分位的方法定义极端降水事件的阈值,分析了不同持续时间的极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征。结果表明,极端降水事件多发于35°N以南,特别是在长江中下游和江南地区以及高原东南部,且在这些地区极端降水事件持续时间也较长。季节分布上,主要出现在夏季,以低持续性事件为主。在中国东部地区,持续时间越长的极端降水其强度往往越强。趋势分析表明,全国持续1d极端事件的相对频数具有上升趋势而平均强度具有下降趋势,其空间上均表现为全国大部分上升、华北和西南等地下降的趋势。持续2d以上极端事件在长江中下游流域、江南地区和高原东部等地区有显著增多和增强的趋势,而在华北和西南地区有减少和减弱趋势,但全国平均的趋势不显著。 相似文献
3.
Turkey often suffers from flood-related damages and causalities as a result of intense and prolonged storms that are usually convective or cyclonic in origin. The impact is more distinctive in Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of the country where quantity and distribution of rainfall is influenced by Mediterranean cyclones, especially in late autumn and early winter. The floods sometimes became very hazardous when combined with urbanization effects, especially in the densely populated coastal communities and major cities. Severe weather was marked in the early parts of September 2009 that produced record-setting rainfall amounts across the Marmara region of Turkey and led a series of flash floods which affected ?stanbul and Tekirda? provinces especially. The overall flooding was the result of successive and persistent intense rainfall episodes over a 3-day period which produced more than 250-mm rainfall over portions of the region. The floods resulted in death of 32 people and caused extensive environmental and infrastructural damage in the region. This study provides in-depth analysis of hydrometeorological conditions that led to the occurrence of flash floods in Marmara region during 7–10 September 2009 period and also discusses non-meteorological factors that exacerbated the flooding conditions. Main meteorological settings that led to intense storms were presence of cold air in the upper atmosphere, a slow-moving quasi-stationary trough, and continuous resupply of moisture to the surface low from the warm Aegean Sea. Radar images showed the development of clusters of convective cells that remained quasi-stationary over portions of the region. The 24-h rainfall amounts varied between 100 and 253 mm in most parts of the region during the flooding period with diverse spatial patterns. The southern locations received the highest amount of the rainfall as compared to stations located in northern slopes of the region. Typical effects of orography that enhance rainfall in the coastal areas, however, were not observed during the Marmara flood. Some features of the synoptic pattern observed prior and during the flooding period, supported the back door cold front concept. This is characterized with easterly to northeasterly surface flows forced by an anticyclone, advection of cold continental air over the warm Black Sea which provided anomalous moisture to trigger cyclogenesis over the Marmara region, and falling of core of the intense rainfall over the Marmara Sea. The study concluded that although the meteorological settings were favorable for the convective rainfalls, urbanization factors, such as land use changes and occupation of flood plains, played major role in aggravating the worst flood observed in the region in recent decades. 相似文献
4.
Unprecedented precipitation along with heavy falls occurred over many parts of India from 28th February to 2nd March 2015. Many of the stations of northwest and central India received an all time high 24 hr cumulative precipitation of March during this period. Even the national capital, New Delhi, broke all the previous historical 24 hr rainfall records of the last 100 years to the rainfall record in March 2015. Due to this event, huge loss to agricultural and horticultural crops occurred in several parts of India. In the present study, an attempt is made to understand the various meteorological features associated with this unprecedented precipitation event over India. It occurred due to the presence of an intense western disturbance (WD) over Afghanistan and neighbouring areas in the form of north–south oriented deep trough in westerlies in middle and upper tropospheric levels with its southern end deep in the Arabian Sea, which pumped huge moisture feed over Indian region. Also, there was a jet stream with core wind speed up to 160 knots that generated high positive divergence at upper tropospheric level over Indian region; along with this there was high magnitude of negative vertical velocity and velocity convergence were there at middle tropospheric level. It caused intense upward motion and forced lower levels air to rise and strengthen the lower levels cyclonic circulations (CCs)/Lows. Moreover, the induced CCs/Lows at lower tropospheric levels associated with WD were more towards south of its normal position. Additionally, there was wind confluence over central parts of India due to westerlies in association with WD and easterlies from anticyclone over north Bay of Bengal. Thus, intense WD along with wind confluence between westerlies and easterlies caused unprecedented precipitation over India during the 1st week of March 2015. 相似文献
5.
本文分析了一个耦合模式FGOALS_g1.0对工业革命前气候(0ka)和中全新世时期(6ka)亚洲夏季风的模拟结果。在该研究中我们主要分析季风降水变率较大的区域,即东亚夏季风区(20°～45°N,110°～120°E)和印度夏季风区(10°～30°N,70°～80°E)。尽管耦合模式的普遍偏差依然存在,该模式反映出亚洲季风系统是海陆热力性质差异的结果,并较好地模拟出了0ka亚洲夏季风大尺度环流的特点和季节变化的特征。6ka和0ka比较分析的结果表明,6ka时期欧亚大陆增暖,海陆温度梯度加强; 印度夏季风降水从南亚大陆北移到 30°N 附近,位于青藏高原南侧的降水大值中心降水加强; 东亚季风区降水则表现为华北地区减少,长江流域和华南地区降水增加的特点。但合理地模拟季风爆发仍然是耦合气候系统模式的难点之一。
6ka时期亚洲夏季风变化是和大尺度季风环流的变化联系在一起的,而其根本原因是中全新世时期地球轨道参数变化所引起的太阳辐射变化,北半球季节循环的振幅加强。海陆热力性质的差异所导致海陆温差加大使得北半球的季风环流加强,印度夏季风高空东风在 20°～30°N 加强,低层赤道东风加强,跨赤道后的西南气流向北推移,从而使得印度夏季风降水雨带北移到 30°N 附近。东亚季风区的高低空温度场的配置使得副热带高空急流减弱,位置偏南,从而有利于华北地区的高空出现异常的辐合,中层为异常的辐散,抑制了季风降水的发展; 长江流域和华南地区则相反,季风降水降水加强。 相似文献
6ka时期亚洲夏季风变化是和大尺度季风环流的变化联系在一起的,而其根本原因是中全新世时期地球轨道参数变化所引起的太阳辐射变化,北半球季节循环的振幅加强。海陆热力性质的差异所导致海陆温差加大使得北半球的季风环流加强,印度夏季风高空东风在 20°～30°N 加强,低层赤道东风加强,跨赤道后的西南气流向北推移,从而使得印度夏季风降水雨带北移到 30°N 附近。东亚季风区的高低空温度场的配置使得副热带高空急流减弱,位置偏南,从而有利于华北地区的高空出现异常的辐合,中层为异常的辐散,抑制了季风降水的发展; 长江流域和华南地区则相反,季风降水降水加强。 相似文献
6.
The Eastern Mediterranean region has been exposed to drought episodes, which have been occurring more frequently during the last decades. The objective of the present paper is to study the precipitation regime of the Damascus (Mazzeh) meteoric station by analysing drought characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and comparing this with the drought in Cyprus. The cumulative drought conceptis proposed to characterize long-term hydrologic drought, which affects the shallow groundwater productivity in terms of quantity and quality. Gamma probability distribution was fitted to the long-term annual precipitation in Damascus from 1918–1919 to 2007–2008 (n = 90 years). Generally, a decreasing trend of 17% to the mean annual rainfall of Damascus and 13% to the mean annual rainfall of Cyprus was estimated between 1970 and 2000. The SPI identifies three major extended drought periods: (1) 9 years of severe drought (1954–1963) with an average 20% precipitation deficit per year compared to the mean. (2) 8 years of severe drought (1983–1991) with a 27% deficit per year on average. (3) 9 years of extreme drought (1993–2002) with a 31% deficit per year on average. The cumulative standardized precipitation index (SPI 30) demonstrates positive values for the first period and is indicative of having no effect on the global water balance. SPI 30 exhibits sensitive equilibrium with near zero values / a near zero value (±1.5) for the second period. For the third period, however, the SPI 30 decreases below ?10 indicating an extreme hydrological drought that has negative consequences on the recent groundwater recharge. It is required to develop and implement a sustainable groundwater management strategy to reduce long-terms drought risks. Generally, the SPI 30 in Cyprus is parallel to that in Damascus with a 3–5 year delay. Thus, the central zone of the Eastern Mediterranean region is facing big challenges and has been suffering from three decades of moderate to severe hydrological drought (SPI 30=?5 to ?10) causing a severe decrease in springs discharges of the region. Therefore, in order to reduce the climate change effects on water resources, it is necessary to adopt a sustainable proactive management plan during the frequent severe droughts. 相似文献
7.
文章利用CESM1.1(公共地球系统模式)模式过去千年集合试验结果,对模拟的过去千年中国东部持续性严重干旱事件的时空特征及发生机制进行了初步分析。模式模拟出过去千年中国东部发生了7次持续性严重干旱事件,分别为883~910年、951~977年、1253~1305年、1327~1346年、1471~1488年、1587~1610年和1688~1699年干旱事件,其中仅1471~1488年干旱事件与中国东部旱涝指数对应较好,表明模式对中国东部干旱事件的模拟能力较低。这7次干旱事件均与模拟的ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)负位相状态相对应,揭示ENSO可能对中国东部干旱事件的发生起了非常重要的作用。模拟分析结果显示,1253~1305年干旱事件前期可能主要受火山活动驱动,后期则可能受到太阳活动和自然内部变率的影响。另外,1587~1610年干旱事件后期可能也受到火山活动的影响;883~910年和951~977年干旱事件则完全受自然内部变率的影响。对1327~1346年、1471~1488年和1688~1699年这3次干旱事件,无法分辨外强迫和内部变率ENSO的各自贡献。 相似文献
8.
中国大陆现代降水表现出若干长期变化特征,对现代降水趋势性变化的原因,目前还没有很好了解。结合多种资料分析以及前人研究成果,对中国大陆近几十年降水变化趋势的原因进行了探讨,得到以下初步认识:① 现代降水量变化趋势具有明显的地域性差异,全国平均没有表现出显著增加或减少的长期变化,但强降水事件频率和降水量出现明显增多,而小雨事件特别是痕量降水事件显著减少。② 再分析资料表明,最近几十年全国水汽净收支量在一定程度上增加了,实际观测资料显示近地面和对流层中下层空气比湿或大气可降水量出现较明显上升趋势。③ 代用资料序列分析显示,全国大部地区近几十年降水变化仍处于晚近历史时期正常自然波动范围内;近百年观测的降水量序列也表明,黄淮海地区降水具有多重时间尺度相互叠加作用特点,低频自然气候变异的影响信号有清晰表现。④ 人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增加对全国或东部季风区现代降水变化影响的信号,目前仍难以识别;区域性近地面风速减弱导致的雨量观测系统偏差以及大范围气溶胶浓度增加,可能是东部季风区大多数台站观测到的强降水事件频率增加和小雨频率显著减少的两个重要原因。⑤ 主要与城市化影响相关的地面观测资料系统偏差,可以部分解释现有分析表明的短历时强降水事件频率和累计降水量增加现象,同时也很可能是城市台站小雨和痕量降水事件频率明显下降的另一重要原因。 相似文献
9.
The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Rainfall Triggering of Landslides near Lisbon 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The majority of landsliding episodes in the area north of Lisbon are associated with rainfall events of short (less than 5
days) medium (5–20 days) or long duration (more than 20 days). The precipitation regime in Portugal is highly irregular, with
large differences between wet and dry years. We have assessed the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on both the
winter precipitation and the timing and magnitude of associated landslide events. Results show that the large inter-annual
variability of winter precipitation is largely modulated by the NAO mode. The precipitation composite corresponding to high
NAO index presents a considerable lower median value (47 mm/month) than the corresponding low NAO index class (134 mm/month).
The entire precipitation distribution associated with the low NAO index composite encompasses a wider range of values than
the corresponding high NAO index composite. This non-linear behavior is reflected in the probability of occurrence of a very
wet month (precipitation above the 90% percentile) that is just 1% for the positive NAO class and 23% for low NAO index months.
Results for the low NAO class are crucial because these months are more likely associated with long-lasting rainfall episodes
responsible for large landslide events. This is confirmed by the application of a 3-month moving average to both NAO index
and precipitation time series. This procedure allowed the identification of many months with landslide activity as being characterized
by negative average values of the NAO index and high values of average precipitation (above 100 mm/month). Finally, using
daily data we have computed the return periods associated with the entire set of landslide episodes and, based on these results,
obtained a strong linear relationship between critical cumulative rainfall and the corresponding critical rainfall event duration. 相似文献
10.
Evaporation capacity is an important factor that cannot be ignored when judging whether extreme precipitation events will produce groundwater recharge. The evaporation layer’s role in groundwater recharge was evaluated using a lysimeter simulation experiment in the desert area of Dunhuang, in the western part of the Hexi Corridor in northwestern China’s Gansu Province. The annual precipitation in the study area is extremely low, averaging 38.87 mm during the 60-year study period, and daily pan evaporation amounts to 2,486 mm. Three simulated precipitation regimes (normal, 10 mm; ordinary annual maximum, 21 mm; and extreme, 31 mm) were used in the lysimeter simulation to allow monitoring of water movement and weighing to detect evaporative losses. The differences in soil-water content to a depth of 50 cm in the soil profile significantly affected rainfall infiltration during the initial stages of rainfall events. It was found that the presence of a dry 50-cm-deep sand layer was the key factor for “potential recharge” after the three rainfall events. Daily precipitation events less than 20 mm did not produce groundwater recharge because of the barrier effect created by the dry sand. Infiltration totaled 0.68 mm and penetrated to a depth below 50 cm with 31 mm of rainfall, representing potential recharge equivalent to 1.7 % of the rainfall. This suggests that only extreme precipitation events offer the possibility of recharge of groundwater in this extremely arid area. 相似文献
11.
近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述 总被引：47，自引：0，他引：47
随着中国气象局对近50年来逐日气象观测资料的释放,人们从不同的角度对中国平均气候和极端气候的分布特征有了更多的了解.从目前研究的结果来看,这些认识需要有一个集成,即需要有一个总体的归纳和解释.通过中国近40年来的温度极值和降水极值事件的分析认识到全球增暖和区域环流异常决定着气候极值事件的分布格局.与全球增暖相联系的是:我国微量降水在空间上表现为一致的减少趋势,我国北方寒潮事件显著减少,冷夜和冷日的减少与暖夜和暖日的增多并存,以及极端强降水有增多的趋势.与东亚季风气流和西风带气流异常对应的我国有效降水在区域分布上发生了显著变化,东部季风区中的"北涝南旱"从1970年代末转型为"南涝北旱",与华南的偏干一起形成了东部季风区降水从华南、长江到华北的"-、 、-"异常分布型,但华南在1991年出现了转湿的突变;东北和西北先后从1983年和1987年前后转为暖湿气候.极端温度和极端降水趋势的空间分布与平均温度和平均降水趋势的空间分布一致. 相似文献
12.
Variability of precipitation and temperature was examined on multiple time scales using data from five surface observing stations in the center of Guanajuato state, Mexico, as well as gridded data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Frequency of days with total precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile was not found to have increased from 1979-2011. However, frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 90th percentile more than doubled from 1979-2011, and frequency of days with maximum temperature below the 10th percentile decreased by almost half over the same period, an important result given the scarcity of water resources for the agriculture-based economy. Precipitation within the growing season was found to vary by phase of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), with MJO phases 1-3 associated with above-normal rainfall and MJO phases 4-7 with normal or below normal rainfall. Composite anomalies of precipitation, surface pressure, surface wind, surface temperature, and 700 mbar height showed that days with rainfall in Guanajuato were associated with on-shore, upslope flow, reduced surface temperatures, and reduced potential evaporation. Composites for MJO phases 1-3 and 8 agreed well with these anomalies. Similarly, composite anomalies for days without rainfall in Guanajuato showed warm surface temperatures, broad anticyclonic flow over much of northern Mexico, and enhanced potential evaporation. Composites for MJO phases 4-7 agreed well with these anomalies. 相似文献
13.
本文以云南省蒙自市断陷盆地高原面上典型封闭式岩溶洼地小流域为研究对象,研究小降雨事件对土壤水分及植物水势的影响。结果表明:（1）在研究区内小降雨事件一般只能补给10 cm以上的土壤,因此在旱季（强降雨事件发生前）,土壤水分随着深度的增加整体呈变小的趋势;受洼地地形影响,整个土壤剖面（0 ~ 80 cm）的土壤水分存在从坡顶到洼地底部逐渐增加,苹果树叶水势逐渐升高的现象;受地质背景的影响,土石质坡地平均土壤水分比石质坡地土壤水分高2.67%,相对应的土石质坡地苹果树受干旱胁迫的程度要低于石质坡地。（2）通过观测对比发现,8天内12次的小降雨事件可以使0~10 cm土壤水分整体上略有升高,但并未能完全改变0~10 cm土壤水分洼地底部大于两侧坡地,而土石质坡地高于石质坡地的特征。（3）小降雨事件虽然只能补给0~10 cm的土壤水分,但由于坡地地区苹果树根系分布较浅（5~30 cm）,部分浅层分布的苹果树根系已能吸收到水分,另一方面小降雨事件具有降温、增湿,减少太阳辐射的作用,可以减小苹果树蒸腾作用,从而降低苹果树叶水势,因此推测小雨事件可以明显减轻苹果树受干旱胁迫的程度 相似文献
14.
Rainfall patterns and related landslide incidence in the Porretta-Vergato region,Italy 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
An analysis of landslide occurrence in the low permeability terrain of Porretta-Vergato, Italy, related to prolonged rainfall patterns is presented. Data sets collected over nearly a century are statistically analysed. The pattern of the landslide hazard is considered and related to precipitation at the basin scale in order to enhance the understanding between the two parameters and assess their temporal changes, as well as interrelationships. Landslide incidence generally follows the periodic pattern of precipitation with a lag of approximately six months, which is believed to relate to the time necessary for the ground water to reach a critical level to initiate slope failure. There also appears to be a two-stage pattern of precipitation which induces most landslides: a preparatory period, where the landslide is destabilized and conditioned for slope failure, followed by a more intense period of rainfall that triggers or provokes the event. These initial findings point to the need for further studies to verify such unstable situations. 相似文献
15.
16.
Naoyuki Kurita Kimpei Ichiyanagi Jun Matsumoto Manabu D. Yamanaka Tetsuo Ohata 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2009,102(3):113
General circulation models (GCMs) fitted with stable isotope schemes are widely used to interpret the isotope–climate relationship. However, previous studies have found that the spatiotemporal isotope/precipitation correlation simulated by GCMs is stronger and more widespread than the observed value. To understand the reason for this failure, we investigated the factors influencing the empirically well-known isotope/precipitation relationship, or precipitation amount effect, in the tropics using newly obtained daily precipitation isotope monitoring data over Asia. As in previous studies, we found an apparent correlation between the long-term monthly mean isotopic content and the corresponding precipitation amount (local precipitation) observed at sub-tropical island stations. Furthermore, on a monthly timescale, the isotopic variability of precipitation for these stations was more clearly related to the regional precipitation amount than to local precipitation. This correlation of isotopic content with the regional precipitation amount was observed at the equatorial (Maritime Continent) stations. For these stations, isotope/local precipitation relationships only appeared over longer timescales, with different regression line slopes at each station. However, at the coastal stations, there was a strong linear relationship between the monthly mean isotopic content and corresponding regional precipitation, and regression line slopes were spatially uniform. For the two sub-tropical terrestrial (Indochina Peninsula) stations, the isotopic minimum appeared without any relationship to rainfall amount but usually occurred at the leeward station during the rainy season. These results suggest that the isotopic variations of precipitation did not depend on the ’local’ rain-out history but on the rain-out process in the surrounding region. However, local rainfall events were associated not only with large-scale disturbances but also with regional circulation. Thus, the scale difference of controlling factors between local rainfall amount and isotopic value results in the weakening of the rainfall amount effect at the observation site and in the discrepancy between GCM simulations and observations. This finding suggests that regional precipitation–isotope relationships should be compared with GCM results. Additionally, because the isotope signal reflects the rain-out history at a regional scale, evaluation of the isotopic field using isotopic GCMs will be useful not only to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions but also to examine how GCMs can reproduce real atmospheric circulation over the tropics. 相似文献
17.
Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions (Asturias,NW Spain) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pablo Valenzuela María José Domínguez-Cuesta Manuel Antonio Mora García Montserrat Jiménez-Sánchez 《Landslides》2018,15(2):273-282
Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences. 相似文献
18.
India experienced a heavy rainfall event in the year 2013 over Uttarakhand and its adjoining areas, which was exceptional as it witnessed the fastest monsoon progression. This study aims to explore the causative factors of this heavy rainfall event leading to flood and landslides which claimed huge loss of lives and property. The catastrophic event occurred from 14th to 17th June, 2013 during which the state received 375% more rainfall than the highest rainfall recorded during a normal monsoon season. Using the high resolution precipitation data and complementary parameters, we found that the mid-latitude westerlies shifted southward from its normal position during the intense flooding event. The southward extension of subtropical jet (STJ) over the northern part of India was observed only during the event days and its intensity was found to be increasing from 14th to 16th June. The classical theory of westward tilt of mid-latitude trough with height, which acts to intensify the system through the transfer of potential energy of the mean flow, is evident from analysis of relative vorticity at multiple pressure levels. On analysing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), negative values were observed during the event days. Thus, the decrease in pressure gradient resulted in decrease of the intensity of westerlies which caused the cold air to move southward. During the event, as the cold air moved south, it pushed the mid-latitude westerlies south of its normal position during summer monsoon and created a conducive atmosphere for the intensification of the system. 相似文献
19.
利用呼和浩特市1961-2010年6个国家气象观测站逐小时降水量资料,应用数理统计、滑动平均和M-K突变检验分析了呼和浩特市短时强降水时空分布特。结果表明：呼和浩特市短时强降水频次的空间分布不均匀,主要分布在呼和浩特市南部及山脉迎风坡;呼和浩特市短时强降水具有明显的季节变化和日变化特征,短时强降水频次最高在7月下旬和8月上旬,最容易发生在午后至傍晚,年代和年变化显示20世纪90年代为正距平,1993年之后,呼和浩特市短时强降水次数呈上升趋势,1997年通过显著性检验水平临界线,即呈明显上升趋势,1998年达到峰值。 相似文献
20.
Rainfall patterns for shallow landsliding in perialpine Slovenia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This paper presents two types of analysis: an antecedent rainfall analysis based on daily rainfall and an intensity-duration analysis of rainfall events based on hourly data in perialpine Slovenia in the ?kofjelo?ko Cerkljansko hills. For this purpose, eight rainfall events that are known to have caused landslides in the period from 1990 to 2010 were studied. Over the observed period, approximately 400 records of landslides were collected. Rainfall data were obtained from three rain gauges. The daily rainfall from the 30 days before landslide events was investigated based on the type of landslides and their geo-environmental setting, the dates of confirmed landslide activity and different consecutive rainfall periods. The analysis revealed that the rainfall events triggering slope failure can be divided into two groups according to the different antecedent periods. The first group of landslides typically occurred after short-duration rainstorms with high intensity, when the daily rainfall exceeded the antecedent rainfall. The second group comprises the rainfall events with a longer antecedent period of at least 7 days. A comparison of the plotted peak and mean intensities indicates that the rainfall patterns that govern slope failure are similar but do not necessarily reflect the rainfall intensity at the time of shallow landslides in the Dav?a or Poljane areas, where the majority of the landslides occurred. Because of several limitations, the suggested threshold cannot be compared and evaluated with other thresholds. 相似文献