共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
Te Xiao Zi-Jun Cao Xiao-Song Tang 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):146-159
ABSTRACTA simplified reliability analysis method is proposed for efficient full probabilistic design of soil slopes in spatially variable soils. The soil slope is viewed as a series system comprised of numerous potential slip surfaces and the spatial variability of soil properties is modelled by the spatial averaging technique along potential slip surfaces. The proposed approach not only provides sufficiently accurate reliability estimates of slope stability, but also significantly improves the computational efficiency of soil slope design in comparison with simulation-based full probabilistic design. It is found that the spatial variability has considerable effects on the optimal slope design. 相似文献
2.
Three-dimensional slope reliability and risk assessment using auxiliary random finite element method
This paper aims to propose an auxiliary random finite element method (ARFEM) for efficient three-dimensional (3-D) slope reliability analysis and risk assessment considering spatial variability of soil properties. The ARFEM mainly consists of two steps: (1) preliminary analysis using a relatively coarse finite-element model and Subset Simulation, and (2) target analysis using a detailed finite-element model and response conditioning method. The 3-D spatial variability of soil properties is explicitly modeled using the expansion optimal linear estimation approach. A 3-D soil slope example is presented to demonstrate the validity of ARFEM. Finally, a sensitivity study is carried out to explore the effect of horizontal spatial variability. The results indicate that the proposed ARFEM not only provides reasonably accurate estimates of slope failure probability and risk, but also significantly reduces the computational effort at small probability levels. 3-D slope probabilistic analysis (including both 3-D slope stability analysis and 3-D spatial variability modeling) can reflect slope failure mechanism more realistically in terms of the shape, location and length of slip surface. Horizontal spatial variability can significantly influence the failure mode, reliability and risk of 3-D slopes, especially for long slopes with relatively strong horizontal spatial variability. These effects can be properly incorporated into 3-D slope reliability analysis and risk assessment using ARFEM. 相似文献
3.
Xiao-hui Tan Xian-en Wang Xiao-jun Hu Meng-fen Shen Na Hu 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2016,34(5):1283-1292
Two methods of reliability analysis of soil slopes are studied, and the representative flow charts of both methods are illustrated. Method 1 can predict the reliability index and the critical probabilistic slip surface directly and it is computational efficient, but it needs the development of new codes for integrating the reliability analysis code and the slope stability code. Method 2 makes the reliability analysis code call the slope stability analysis code directly, and each code can be considered as an intact part. The main result of Method 2 is the reliability index of soil slope. Combined with the proposed method for locating the critical slip surface, Method 2 can also predict the probabilistic slip surface. Although Method 2 needs much more callings of the subprogram of slope stability analysis code, it needs not the developing of new computer program. Thus, Method 2 is easy to use and can be applied to different reliability analysis methods and slope stability analysis methods. 相似文献
4.
Three-dimensional reliability analysis of earth slopes 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Reliability of cohesive soil slopes is assessed using a three-dimensional (3D) probabilistic stability analysis algorithm. Spatial variability of soil properties is represented by an anisotropic random field. Parametric studies are performed for a typical earth structure. The influence of the model parameters, including expected value, variance and correlation distance of soil shear strength, on the reliability associated to particular failure mechanisms is evaluated. The effect on reliability of the dimensions and shape of potential slip surfaces for a given random field is also assessed. It is shown that the mechanisms that contribute most significantly to global probability of failure of the slope may be quite different from those identified as critical by standard deterministic evaluations assuming soil homogeneity. Some practical implications of this fact are discussed. 相似文献
5.
针对土坡稳定体系可靠度分析问题,提出了一种分析方法框架,包括采用缩减方差抽样技术生成随机变量样本值、采用全局优化算法搜索边坡最小安全系数、采用Monte-Carlo法计算边坡体系可靠度3个主要部分。在此框架下,建立了一种较为简便实用的高土石坝坝坡稳定体系可靠度分析方法。该方法采用拉丁超立方抽样技术生成随机变量的样本值,再用商业软件STAB搜索相应的坝坡最小安全系数,最后用可靠指标法或Monte-Carlo法计算坝坡体系可靠度。工程算例表明,筑坝材料强度参数的随机不确定性对坝坡临界滑弧的位置影响较大,坝坡稳定体系可靠度小于单一滑动面的坝坡稳定最小可靠度,提出的方法可用于实际工程坝坡稳定体系可靠度分析。 相似文献
6.
This paper develops a risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach to evaluate the slope failure probability, pf, using representative slip surfaces together with MCS. An efficient procedure is developed to strategically select the candidate representative slip surfaces, and a risk de-aggregation approach is proposed to quantify contribution of each candidate representative slip surface to the pf, identify the representative slip surfaces, and determine how many representative slip surfaces are needed for estimating the pf with reasonable accuracy. Risk de-aggregation is performed by collecting the failure samples generated in MCS and analyzing them statistically. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a cohesive soil slope example and validated against results from previous studies. When compared with the previous studies, the proposed approach substantially improves the computational efficiency in probabilistic slope stability analysis. The proposed approach is used to explore the effect of spatial variability on the pf. It is found that, when spatial variability is ignored or perfect correlation assumed, the pf of the whole slope system can be solely attributed to a single representative slip surface. In this case, it is theoretically appropriate to use only one slip surface in the reliability analysis. As the spatial variability becomes growingly significant, the number of representative slip surfaces increases, and all representative slip surfaces (i.e., failure modes) contribute more equally to the overall system risk. The variation of failure modes has substantial effect on the pf, and all representative surfaces have to be incorporated properly in the reliability analysis. The risk de-aggregation and system reliability approach developed in this paper provides a practical and efficient means to incorporate such a variation of failure modes in probabilistic slope stability analysis. 相似文献
7.
多层土坡在岩土工程实际中十分常见,不仅土体参数存在一定的空间变异性,而且土体框架呈现明显的层状分布特征,然而目前对考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡稳定可靠度研究的远远不够。提出了基于多重响应面边坡系统可靠度分析的蒙特卡洛模拟（MCS）方法,给出了计算流程图,系统地研究了考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡系统可靠度问题。结果表明,提出方法能够有效地分析考虑参数空间变异性低失效概率水平的多层土坡系统可靠度问题,并且具有较高的参数敏感性分析计算效率。 相似文献
8.
提出了一套基于随机响应面法的边坡系统可靠度分析方法。该方法首先从大量潜在滑动面中筛选出代表性滑动面。针对每条代表性滑动面,采用Hermite多项式展开建立其安全系数与土体参数间的非线性显式函数关系（即随机响应面）。然后,采用直接蒙特卡洛模拟计算边坡系统失效概率。在蒙特卡罗模拟中,采用所有代表性滑动面的随机响应面计算每一组样本所对应的边坡最小安全系数。最后,以两个典型多层边坡系统可靠度问题为例验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明：文中提出的边坡系统可靠度分析方法能够有效地识别边坡代表性滑动面,具有较高的计算精度和效率,并且确定代表性滑动面时无需计算滑动面间的相关系数。同时该方法可以有效地计算低失效概率水平的边坡系统可靠度,为含相关非正态参数的边坡系统可靠度问题提供了一条有效的分析途径。此外,多层边坡可能同时存在多条潜在滑动面,基于单一滑动面（如临界确定性滑动面）或者部分代表性滑动面进行边坡系统可靠度分析均会低估边坡失效概率。 相似文献
9.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1619-1629
This study aims at the probabilistic assessment of tunnel convergence considering the spatial variability in rock mass properties. The method of interpolated autocorrelation combined with finite difference analysis is adopted to model the spatial variability of rock mass properties. An iterative procedure using the first-order reliability method(FORM) and response surface method(RSM) is employed to compute the reliability index and its corresponding design point. The results indicate that the spatial variability considerably affects the computed reliability index. The probability of failure could be noticeably overestimated in the case where the spatial variability is neglected. The vertical scale of fluctuation has a much higher effect on the probabilistic result with respect to the tunnel convergence than the horizontal scale of fluctuation. And the influence of different spacing of control points on the computational accuracy is investigated. 相似文献
10.
边坡可靠度分析的一种新的优化求解方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
介绍了Low & Tang提出的一种新的可靠度优化求解方法,并将之用于边坡可靠度分析中：该方法适用于任何概率分布的相关变量,不必计算当量正态均值和方差、相关变量独立变换,直接在变量的原始空间内搜索边坡的最小可靠指标和概率临界滑面,可采用任何合适的约束优化方法进行求解,方法清晰简洁。边坡可靠度分析常用的滑面有2个：最小安全系数（变量均值处）对应的确定性临界滑面和最小可靠指标对应的概率临界滑面,但这2个滑面在有些情况下差别较大,Hassan & Wolff提出了一种简化方法可以方便地获得概率临界滑面,但由于方法简单,受到质疑。通过一系列算例分析,优化求解方法得到的概率临界滑面和Hassan & Wolff的简化方法滑面非常接近,显示了简化方法的有效性,值得在工程实践中推广。 相似文献
11.
This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs. 相似文献
12.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading. The 3-D slope stability model assumed is that of a simple cylindrical failure surface. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake induced acceleration and uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The probabilistic analysis and design approach is capable of obtaining the 2-D and 3-D static and dynamic safety factors, the probability of slope failure, the earthquake induced acceleration coefficient, the yield acceleration coefficient, the earthquake induced displacement, and the probability of allowable displacement exceedance taking into account the local site effect. The approach is applied to a well known landslide case: Congress Street Landslide in Chicago. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the models by applying those models to the Congress Street landslide considering different levels of seismic hazard. Also, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the sensitivity of computed results to input parameters of undrained shear strength, and corrective factors. A comparison was made between the different models of failure. The parametric study revealed that the hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude have major influence on the earthquake induced displacement, probability of failure and dynamic 2-D and 3-D safety factors. 相似文献
13.
This paper deals with slope reliability analysis incorporating two-dimensional spatial variation. Two methods, namely the method of autocorrelated slices and the method of interpolated autocorrelations, are proposed for this purpose. Investigations are carried out based on the limit equilibrium method of slices. First-order-reliability-method (FORM) is coupled with deterministic slope stability analysis using the constrained optimization approach. Systematic search for the probabilistic critical slip surface has been carried out in this study. It is shown that both methods work well in modeling 2-D spatial variation. The results of slope reliability analysis are validated by Monte Carlo simulations. Failure probabilities obtained by FORM agree well with simulation results. It is found that 2-D spatial variation significantly influences the reliability analysis, and that the reliability index is more sensitive to vertical autocorrelation distance than to horizontal autocorrelation distance. Based on this study, failure probability is found significantly overestimated when spatial variation is ignored. Finally, the possible use of the method of interpolated autocorrelations in a probabilistic finite element analysis is suggested. 相似文献
14.
For long earth embankments or levees, it is of interest to investigate the slope failure mode in the longitudinal direction. However, this is less commonly discussed in comparison to the plane-strain failure mode. In this paper, the longitudinal failure mode of a long embankment consisting of homogeneous soils is examined. A probabilistic approach using the first-order reliability method (FORM) is adopted to consider the uncertainty of soil properties. In particular, the spatial variability of the undrained shear strength of the soil is modelled in the probabilistic analysis. Parametric studies are subsequently conducted to examine the influence of this soil characteristic on the failure mode of the long embankment. 相似文献
15.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638
To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability. 相似文献
16.
基于均质路堤边坡Monte Carlo法的稳定可靠度计算,分析了临界滑面搜索策略和稳定分析方法两类模型不确定性对边坡可靠度的影响特性,讨论了边坡失效概率随土工参数变异性的变化规律。研究表明,选用不同的临界滑面搜索策略所得可靠度结果差异不大,参数滑面法（overall slope）的失效概率略大于均值滑面法（global minimum）,但差别对边坡稳定性分析没有实质性影响;土性参数变异水平是影响边坡可靠度的最重要因素,边坡在相同设计参数安全系数下的可靠度指标随参数变异性增大而急剧降低;不同稳定性分析方法对应的安全系数概率密度函数曲线形态基本一致,但失效概率差异明显,因此目标可靠度指标取值应与稳定性分析方法相适应。提出的考虑土工参数变异水平的安全系数取值修正原则,对改进确定性设计的边坡稳定分析技术有积极意义。 相似文献
17.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides. 相似文献
18.
In this paper, a system reliability analysis of rock slope stability with considering all input parameters as stochastic parameter is presented. To perform reliability analysis a cut-set system has been used. For this purpose, Sequential Compounding Method (SCM) as a powerful method for reducing the computational time and accurate evaluation is employed to determine the reliability indices with considering correlations between failure modes which are calculated by defining equivalent linear safety margin for each failure mode. Furthermore, the 3-D system probability of failure surface is presented and the probabilistic model is developed to evaluate the rock slope probability of failure. 相似文献
19.
Slope stability analysis is one of the most intricate problems of geotechnical engineering because it is mathematically difficult to search the critical slip surface of earth slopes with complex strata owing to the involved multimodal function optimization problem. At present, a minimum factor of safety for a non-circular slip surface in a uniform and unreinforced earth slope can be calculated using several methods; however, for a reinforced soil slope, it cannot be easily calculated because of the additional effect of the reinforcement. One efficient method to search the critical slip surface is particle swarm optimization (PSO). PSO can solve complex non-differentiable problems, and its increasing ease of use has facilitated its application to multimodal function optimization problems in a variety of fields. However, the recommended PSO parameters to calculate the safety factors of unreinforced and reinforced soil slopes, namely the inertia and local and global best solution weighting coefficients, have not been sufficiently investigated. Moreover, the computational efficiency of PSO for safety factor calculation, including computational accuracy and time, has not been clarified. To calculate the unreinforced and reinforced soil slope safety factors, this study considers force and moment equilibriums, including the tensile force of the reinforcement. Firstly, the computational efficiency of the calculation process by PSO was shown to increase the maximum number of slip surface nodes in the calculation of the safety factor. Then, an analysis was carried out to investigate the safety factor sensitivity to the PSO parameters. Based on this analysis, appropriate PSO parameters for the safety factor calculation of unreinforced and reinforced soil slopes were proposed.
相似文献20.
考虑参数空间变异性的非饱和土坡可靠度分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
在考虑多个土体参数空间变异性的基础上,提出了基于拉丁超立方抽样的非饱和土坡稳定可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法。利用Hermite随机多项式展开拟合边坡安全系数与输入参数间的隐式函数关系,采用拉丁超立方抽样技术产生输入参数样本点,通过Karhunen-Loève展开方法离散土体渗透系数、有效黏聚力和内摩擦角随机场,并编写了计算程序NISFEM-KL-LHS。研究了该方法在稳定渗流条件下非饱和土坡可靠度分析中的应用。结果表明：非侵入式随机有限元法为考虑多个土体参数空间变异性的非饱和土坡可靠度问题提供了一种有效的分析工具。土体渗透系数空间变异性和坡面降雨强度对边坡地下水位和最危险滑动面位置均有明显的影响。当降雨强度与饱和渗透系数的比值大于0.01时,边坡失效概率急剧增加。当土体参数变异性或者参数间负相关性较大时,忽略土体参数空间变异性会明显高估边坡失效概率。 相似文献