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Local Modeling模型及其在黄河上游月径流预测中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
基于黄河上游有关水文气象台站的降水径流资料, 将Local Modeling方法应用于龙羊峡水库月入库径流预报的中长期水文预报模型. 模型的检验和应用结果表明, 该方法有着稳健性好、数学物理意义明确、对数据系列要求不高和容易操作等优点, 在非汛期各月的径流预测中具有较高的准确性, 并且在考虑了降水的影响后, 对汛期径流的计算精度亦基本符合水文情报预报规范和实际应用的要求. 该模型在黄河上游水量预报和调度工作中具有良好的应用前景. 相似文献
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密云水库水文预报研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
密云水库的水文预报工作主要包括:洪水预报,汛期中长期来水预报,枯季中长期来水预报.由于近年产汇流条件改变,使得自1989年开发的一些软件在实际工作中无法较好应用.本文基于实践,分析了该流域的降水和径流特点及其发展趋势,对各项预报内容采用的预报方法,做了总结和更新,初步提出适合密云水库特点的一套水文预报方案,并指出进一步发展密云水库水文预报服务系统的问题,对密云水库水文预报的发展具有较大参考价值. 相似文献
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降水数值预报和水文预报的耦合是水文研究的热点问题之一,在避免水文预报模型开发的前提下,本文探讨了如何利用现有的集总式水文预报模型,实现两个系统耦合的问题。提出了在DEM资料提取的数字流域基础上,人工干预子流域和泰森多边形的生成方法,使生成的子流域、泰森多边形与原集总式的水文预报方案划分情况基本一致,在产流层面解决了降水数值预报和集总式水文预报方案耦合的技术问题,为降水数值预报成果在水文预报中广泛应用创造了条件。该方法在潘家口水库的水文预报中应用,取得了较好的效果。 相似文献
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上犹江水库水文预报调度的应用与效益刘义林，彭家淦（江西上犹江水力发电厂）水电是一次性能源，如何充分发挥水库的调节作用，汛期充分利用洪水发电，尽可能少弃水，枯水期充分利用水头多发电是水电节能研究的课题。水文预报调度是研究解决这一课题的重要途径。本文拟就... 相似文献
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单因子水文预报方程算法及实例分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
作为单因子水文预报模型中长期水文预报应用相对广泛,本文利用平稳时间序列模型。利用Gass消去法、Gass-Seidel迭代两种方法计算水文预报方程组,并进行单站的实例计算和两种计算结果的对比分析,误差为18％,可以作为实用的预报方案使用。水文预报方程是建立在线性函数关系基础上的,因而只要是具有某种线性关系的连续系列都可以利用该方法进行预报。并可作为下年水量状况的参考数据,尤其连续的洪、旱灾年,本方法将更为精确。 相似文献
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水文模型选择及其研究进展 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
水文模型是人们认识水文循环过程,进行水文预报和水资源管理的重要工具和手段.在水文预报和水资源管理事务中,针对具体的预报和决策目标,需要根据研究区本身特征、各类数据现状,选择符合实际需求的水文模型.详细分析水文模型选择的必要性及其在水文建模及模型应用中的地位,在回顾水文模型选择研究现状基础上,总结水文模型选择的基本原则,并对各种水文模型选择方法进行分类,进而明确提出水文模型选择的概念,最后提出基于知识、水文模型特性及数据资料等相结合的综合水文模型智能选择框架,探讨水文模型选择的发展趋势. 相似文献
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针对传统中长期水文预报方法模拟预测结果精度低、未考虑水文不确定性因素的影响等问题,本文将小波分析(WA),人工神经网络(ANN)和水文频率分析法联合使用,建立了不确定性中长期水文预报模型:即在应用WA揭示水文序列变化特性的基础上,将原序列分为主序列和随机序列两部分,然后利用ANN对主序列进行模拟预测,对随机序列进行水文频率分析,最后将两部分结果叠加作为最终预测值.将该模型用于黄河河口地区作中长期水文预报,并与传统方法作对比,进行模型验证.结果显示:该模型能同时揭示序列的时、频结构和变化特性;预报值结果精度高;且合格率高;能定量分析和描述水文不确定性因素对预报结果的影响,可得到不同频率对应水文序列的模拟预测值.因此该模型的预报结果更加合理有效,对实际生产应用更具有指导意义. 相似文献
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分析三峡水库入库流量短期预报结果,采用非参数方法估算预报相对误差的概率密度函数。以防洪为目标,同时兼顾发电、通航等要求,建立了防洪调度模型,采用差分进化算法求解,得到了汛期防洪优化调度图。通过比较不考虑预报、现有预报方案、准确预报3种情况的调度结果,分析了水文预报误差对防洪调度的影响。结果表明,无论考虑预报与否,与现有设计方案相比,汛期防洪优化调度图的发电量都增加,弃水减少,削峰率有所提高;而考虑预报信息有助于调控洪水,提高预报精度有助于增加水库抵御大洪水风险的能力;基于模拟现行作业预报方案,汛期防洪优化调度图比设计调度方案发电量增加5.3%,弃水减少5.9%,削峰率提高1.7个百分点,防御1000年一遇设计洪水的能力大大提高。 相似文献
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CSAMT 法在辽西康杖子区深部探矿中的应用 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
可控源音频大地电磁法(CSAMT)具有探测深度大、横向分辨率高、抗干扰能力强的特点,在深部找矿勘探中有着重要的指导意义。肖家营子铜钼矿床是辽西地区一个大型矽卡岩型金属矿床,大部分矿体是隐伏矿体,矿区外围的康杖子区与本区有相似的成矿地质环境,成矿地质条件优越.矿体与围岩电性差异明显,通过应用CSAMT,矿体具有低电阻特点,根据成果推断解释,对深部有利成矿部位进行了钻探验证,取得了理想的探矿效果,在矿区外围取得第二深度空间找矿重大突破。 相似文献
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Julie Okpala 《GeoJournal》1990,20(1):37-43
This paper traces the development of geographic education in Nigeria and examines the views of geographers, other academics,
students and the public at large about the importance of geography. Geography's value is immense despite the non-professional
nature of the discipline. Nevertheless, there is a need to define geography's status and ensure career prospects for students.
The Nigerian Geographical Association (from classroom teaachers to top geographers) must promote geography, improve its status
in schools and universities, and continuously restructure its content and methods to address pertinent social needs. 相似文献
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Trends in landslide occurrence in Nepal 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
David N. Petley Gareth J. Hearn Andrew Hart Nicholas J. Rosser Stuart A. Dunning Katie Oven Wishart A. Mitchell 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(1):23-44
Nepal is a mountainous, less developed kingdom that straddles the boundary between the Indian and Himalayan tectonic plates.
In Nepal, landslides represent a major constraint on development, causing high levels of economic loss and substantial numbers
of fatalities each year. There is a general consensus that the impacts of landslides in countries such as Nepal are increasing
with time, but until now there has been little or no quantitative data to support this view, or to explain the causes of the
increases. In this paper, a database of landslide fatalities in Nepal has been compiled and analysed for the period 1978–2005.
The database suggests that there is a high level of variability in the occurrence of landslides from year to year, but that
the overall trend is upward. Analyses of the trends in the data suggest that there is a cyclicity in the occurrence of landslide
fatalities that strongly mirrors the cyclicity observed in the SW (summer) monsoon in South Asia. Perhaps surprisingly the
relationship is inverse, but this is explained through an inverse relationship between monsoon strength and the amount of
precipitation in the Hill District areas of Nepal. It is also clear that in recent years the number of fatalities has increased
dramatically over and above the effects of the monsoon cycle. Three explanations are explored for this: land-use change, the
effects of the ongoing civil war in Nepal, and road building. It is concluded that a major component of the generally upward
trend in landslide impact probably results from the rural road-building programme, and its attendant changes to physical and
natural systems. 相似文献
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Takeshi Nose Dr. 《GeoJournal》1985,10(3):261-276
Conclusions During the last ten years, aquaculture, especially mariculture has undergone remarkable expansion to counter-balance the gap between the supply and demand of fishery products in Japan. Its expansion has also been supported by the traditional preference of the Japanese people for seafood. Mariculture is now being forced to change its structure due to adverse economic circumstances such as the rise in the cost of energy, feeds and other materials for culture, low market prices, deterioration of environmental conditions, and many other factors. Before these constraints can be resolved, advanced scientific knowledge and technologies must be integrated to develop new types of aquaculture. Expansion of maricultural activities to more open-sea and off shore areas would be one route to follow. Technologies for the development of formulated diets not only for young but also for adults and larvae, establishment of feeding standards, prevention of epizootic diseases must support the establishment of modern aquaculture.The culture-based fisheries, or marine ranching, is becoming a subject for further development in Japan. Much research work has been conducted with a great degree of governmental support. Establishment of a net work of seedstock production farms has made it possible to carry out releasing experiments on a large scale. A newly integrated restoration system could be developed on the basis of these experiments, even though the profits resulting from the artificial restoration of stocks is not thouroughly verified at present. The commencement of a national scheme for culture-based fisheries would be a manifestation of the enthusiasm of the Japanese fish industry. 相似文献
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2010年,美国铀矿总共施工7 209个钻孔,总进尺1 493 520 m;生产铀1 628.55 t;铀矿业总支出费用为2.773亿美元,其中铀矿地勘费支出为3 450万美元,占铀矿业总费用的12.44%。铀矿地勘钻探费用为4 460万美元,占铀矿业总费用的16.08%。 相似文献
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硫代砷是富硫化物地下水中砷的重要形态,对环境和人类健康有潜在威胁。目前硫代砷研究程度尚低,本次主要针对国内外地下水（地热水）中硫代砷的存在形态,水文—生物—环境地球化学过程,样品保存,定量检测方法等方面进行研究。结论如下:pH, 氧化还原电位,硫化物含量和微生物作用等是影响地下水中硫代砷稳定存在和形态分布的重要因素。含铁矿物能与水中的硫代砷形成配位键对其进行吸附,吸附性普遍弱于（亚）砷酸盐,因此,地下水中硫代砷可能表现出更强的迁移性。用于硫代砷检测的自然水样在采集中可采取过滤,速冻,厌氧和低温短期保存的操作流程,以减缓该形态的转化甚至消失。色谱联用ICP-MS系统可用于自然水样中硫代砷的分离定量检测,紫外—可见分光光度法和X射线吸收光谱法在不同场景下也可对硫代砷进行定量和表征分析。地热水和浅层地下水中均可能存在硫代砷,由于水样中硫代砷的不稳定性,室内检测和分析难以准确反映现场过程,因此,野外样品保存技术和现场检测方法的更新可能在未来有更大研究空间,值得进一步探索。 相似文献
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