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1.
The expert processing of monitoring data of large networks on hazardous natural phenomena becomes increasingly more complicated due to an increase in the initial data flow. An approach alternative to the visual recognition of signals is proposed. A number of recognition algorithms and results of their application to the analysis of geoelectric potential monitoring data are discussed. Data of monitoring La Fournaise Volcano (Réunion Island) obtained in the vicinity of the intense volcanic eruption of 1988 are used. The obtained results show that these algorithms are capable of recognizing anomalous segments of records and discriminating between several types of anomalies presumably associated with the effects of various physical factors (heavy atmospheric precipitation, hydrothermal processes, and so on). The algorithms proposed in this work can be used both for the automation of expert work in operating monitoring systems and in investigations aimed at the identification of typical morphologic sequences in time series of data of various origins.  相似文献   

2.
We describe a methodology for identifying complex rift zones on recent or active volcanoes, where structures hidden by recent deposits and logistical conditions might prevent carrying out detailed fieldwork. La Réunion island was chosen as a test-site. We used georeferenced topographic maps, aerial photos and digital terrain models to perform a statistical analysis of several morphometric parameters of pyroclastic cones. This provides a great deal of geometric information that can help in distinguishing the localisation and orientation of buried magma-feeding fractures, which constitute the surface expression of rift zones. It also allowed the construction of a complete GIS database of the pyroclastic cones. La Réunion is a perfect example where past and active volcanic rift zones are mostly expressed by clusters of monogenic centres. The data has been validated in the field and compared and integrated with the distribution and geometry of dyke swarms. Results show the presence of several main and secondary rift segments of different ages, locations and orientations, whose origin is discussed considering regional tectonics, local geomorphology, and volcano deformation.  相似文献   

3.
Pb, Hf, Nd and Sr isotopes of basaltic lavas from the two Réunion Island volcanoes are reported in order to examine the origin of the sources feeding these volcanoes and to detect possible changes through time. Samples, chosen to cover the whole lifetime of the two volcanoes (from 2 Ma to present), yield a chemically restricted (compared to OIB lavas) but complex distribution. Réunion plume isotopic characteristics have been defined on the basis of the composition of uncontaminated shield-building lavas from the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. The average ?Nd, ?Hf, 87Sr/86Sr and 206Pb/204Pb, 207Pb/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb isotope ratios calculated for this component are + 4.4, + 9.1, 0.70411, 18.97, 15.59 and 39.03, respectively. In Pb–Pb isotope space, each volcano defines a distinct linear trend but slight variations are also detected within the various volcanic sequences. The Piton des Neiges volcano yields a distinct and significantly more scattered isotopic distribution than Piton de la Fournaise for both Pb, Hf and Nd isotope tracers. A principal component analysis of the Pb isotope data from Piton de la Fournaise reveals a major contribution of the C and EM-1 components (with a clear Dupal flavor) as main components for the modern Réunion plume. The same components have been identified for Piton des Neiges but with a stronger participation of a depleted mantle component and a weaker EM-1 contribution. The compositional change of the lavas erupted by the Piton des Neiges and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes is attributed to the impingement of two small-scale blobs of plume material at the base of the Réunion lithosphere. Compared to other hot-spots worldwide, in particular Hawaii and Kerguelen, magmas beneath Réunion are generated from a considerably more homogeneous, compositionally more primitive plume higher in 206Pb. Although shallow-level contamination processes have been locally detected they did not alter significantly the composition of the plume magmas. This is tentatively attributed to mantle dynamics producing small, high-velocity blobs that ascend rapidly through the lithosphere, and to the lack of a well-developed magma chamber at depth in the lithosphere.  相似文献   

4.
Polonium-210 (210Po) has been analysed in the soft parts of two bivalves species, the scallop Chlamys varia and the common mussel Mytilus edulis, from the Bay of La Rochelle and Ré Island, on the French Atlantic coast. Between those sites, the highest 210Po concentrations have been found in whole scallop soft parts from La Rochelle, reaching 1,181 +/- 29 Bq kg(-1) dry weight (dwt), a size effect being related to the highest 210Po concentration in the smallest scallops. The results show a significant difference in concentrations for similar size individuals between species in each site (C. varia > M. edulis) and between sites for each species (Ré Island > Bay of La Rochelle). Very high 210Po concentrations have been found in the digestive gland of C varia, ranging 3,150-4,637 Bq kg(-1) dwt. Thus, the digestive gland contains up to 60% of the radionuclide. Subcellular investigations have shown that approximately 40% of the 210Po contained in the digestive gland is in the cytosolic fraction, suggesting a high bioavailability of the 210Po from this fraction to the trophic upper level. Calculations will show that approximately 4 kg of scallops flesh intake would be necessary to reach the annual incorporation limit of 1 mSv.  相似文献   

5.
Volcano spreading, with its characteristic sector grabens, is caused by outward flow of weak substrata due to gravitational loading. This process is now known to affect many present-day edifices. A volcano intrusive complex can form an important component of an edifice and may induce deformation while it develops. Such intrusions are clearly observed in ancient eroded volcanoes, like the Scottish Palaeocene centres, or in geophysical studies such as in La Réunion, or inferred from large calderas, such as in Hawaii, the Canaries or Galapagos volcanoes. Volcano gravitational spreading and intrusive complex emplacement may act simultaneously within an edifice. We explore the coupling and interactions between these two processes. We use scaled analogue models, where an intrusive complex made of Golden syrup is emplaced within a granular model volcano based on a substratum of a ductile silicone layer overlain by a brittle granular layer. We model specifically the large intrusive complex growth and do not model small-scale and short-lived events, such as dyke intrusion, that develop above the intrusive complex. The models show that the intrusive complex develops in continual competition between upward bulging and lateral gravity spreading. The brittle substratum strongly controls the deformation style, the intrusion shape and also controls the balance between intrusive complex spreading and ductile layer-related gravitational spreading. In the models, intrusive complex emplacement and spreading produce similar structures to those formed during volcano gravitational spreading alone (i.e. grabens, folds, en échelon fractures). Therefore, simple analysis of fault geometry and fault kinetic indicators is not sufficient to distinguish gravitational from intrusive complex spreading, except when the intrusive complex is eccentric from the volcano centre. However, the displacement fields obtained for (1) a solely gravitational spreading volcano and for (2) a gravitational spreading volcano with a growing and spreading intrusive complex are very different. Consequently, deformation fields (like those obtained from geodetic monitoring) can give a strong indication of the presence of a spreading intrusive complex. We compare the models with field observations and geophysical evidence on active volcanoes such as La Réunion Island (Indian Ocean), Ometepe Island (Nicaragua) and eroded volcanic remnants such as Ardnamurchan (Scotland) and suggest that a combination between gravitational and intrusive complex spreading has been active.  相似文献   

6.
Accelerating rates of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes are commonly observed during volcanic unrest. Understanding the repeatability of their behaviour is essential to evaluating their potential to forecast eruptions. Quantitative eruption forecasts have focused on changes in precursors over intervals of weeks or less. Previous studies at basaltic volcanoes in frequent eruption, such as Kilauea in Hawaii and Piton de La Fournaise on Réunion, suggest that VT earthquake rates tend to follow a power-law acceleration with time about 2 weeks before eruption, but that this trend is often obscured by random fluctuations (or noise) in VT earthquake rate. These previous studies used a stacking procedure, in which precursory sequences for several eruptions are combined to enhance the signal from an underlying acceleration in VT earthquake rate. Such analyses assume a common precursory trend for all eruptions. This assumption is tested here for the 57 eruptions and intrusions recorded at Kilauea between 1959 and 1984. Applying rigorous criteria for selecting data (e.g. maximum depth; restricting magnitudes to be greater than the completeness magnitude, 2.1), we find a much less pronounced increase in the aggregate rate of earthquakes than previously reported. The stacked trend is also strongly controlled by the behaviour of one particular pre-eruptive sequence. In contrast, a robust signal emerges among stacked VT earthquake rates for a subset of the eruptions and intrusions. The results are consistent with two different precursory styles at Kilauea: (1) a small proportion of eruptions and intrusions that are preceded by accelerating rates of VT earthquakes over intervals of weeks to months and (2) a much larger number of eruptions that show no consistent increase until a few hours beforehand. The results also confirm the importance of testing precursory trends against data that have been filtered according to simple constraints on the spatial distribution and completeness magnitude of the VT earthquakes.  相似文献   

7.
Palaeomagnetic studis on oriented samples from two sequences of olivine basalt lava flows on the island of Réunion together record the Réunion normal polarity event within the Matuyama reversed polarity epoch. Detailed K?Ar dating of the lavas indicates that the Réunion event has a mean age 2.02±0.02 my with a duration estimated to lie within the range 10,000 to 50,000 yr. This could explain the rarity of detection of the event in deep sea sedimentary cores.  相似文献   

8.
The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.  相似文献   

9.
In April 2007, a caldera collapsed at the Dolomieu summit crater of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) revealing new outcrops up to 340?m high along the crater walls. The lithostratigraphic interpretation of these new exposures allows us to investigate the most recent building history of a basaltic shield volcano. We present the history of the Piton de La Fournaise terminal cone, from the building of a juvenile cone during which periods of explosive activity dominated, to the most recent effusive period. The changes in eruptive dynamics are the cause of successive summit crater/pit–crater collapses. In April 2007, such an event occurred during rapid emptying of the shallow plumbing system feeding a large effusive lateral eruption. During the most recent effusive period, an eastward migration of the eruptive crater was observed and was linked to the successive destructions of the shallow magma reservoir during each collapse. The resulting changes in the local stress field favor the formation of a new reservoir and thus the migration of activity. Internal structures reveal that the building of the upper part of the terminal cone was predominantly by exogenous growth and that the hydrothermal system is confined at a depth >?350?m. These observations on Piton de La Fournaise provide new insights into construction of the summits of other basaltic shield volcanoes.  相似文献   

10.
We report a compilation of data recorded at a distant tiltmeter station (RER) during recent episodes of dyke emplacement and eruption (2003–2007) at Piton de La Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island). This sensitive station provides useful information for evaluating the extent of deformation. Distinct responses of this station were recorded based on the eruption type. Dykes feeding summit eruptions did not significantly influence the RER tiltmeter signals, whereas dykes feeding large distal eruptions (with vents located more than 4 km from the summit) generated up to 1.4 μrad of tilt, an amplitude 2 to 4 times greater than for proximal eruptions (0.3–0.7 μrad) on the flanks of the summit cone. The distinct tilt amplitude is directly linked to the location, depth, and volume of the dyke. Comparison with summit tiltmeters reveals that up to one-third to half of the RER tilt signal associated to dyke propagation is recorded when the dyke is still below the summit crater. Thus, before large distal eruptions, more than 0.5 μrad of tilt is recorded in less than 20 min when the dyke is below the summit crater (i.e. a few minutes/hours before the beginning of the eruption). We can thus propose for the RER station a threshold value of 0.5 μrad which, when reached as a dyke rises beneath the summit crater, suggests a high likelihood of a large distal eruption. The distant RER tiltmeter station thus appears to be a powerful tool for forecasting the type of eruption that is likely to occur, and can contribute to the early detection of large distal eruptions at Piton de La Fournaise, which are the most dangerous to inhabitants. For volcano monitoring, installation of high precision distant tiltmeters along the lower slopes of a volcano may provide warnings of large eruptions with enough lead time to allow for short-term hazards mitigation efforts.  相似文献   

11.
Time series in the Earth Sciences are often characterized as self-affine long-range persistent, where the power spectral density, S, exhibits a power-law dependence on frequency, f, S(f) ~ f ?β , with β the persistence strength. For modelling purposes, it is important to determine the strength of self-affine long-range persistence β as precisely as possible and to quantify the uncertainty of this estimate. After an extensive review and discussion of asymptotic and the more specific case of self-affine long-range persistence, we compare four common analysis techniques for quantifying self-affine long-range persistence: (a) rescaled range (R/S) analysis, (b) semivariogram analysis, (c) detrended fluctuation analysis, and (d) power spectral analysis. To evaluate these methods, we construct ensembles of synthetic self-affine noises and motions with different (1) time series lengths N = 64, 128, 256, …, 131,072, (2) modelled persistence strengths β model = ?1.0, ?0.8, ?0.6, …, 4.0, and (3) one-point probability distributions (Gaussian, log-normal: coefficient of variation c v = 0.0 to 2.0, Levy: tail parameter a = 1.0 to 2.0) and evaluate the four techniques by statistically comparing their performance. Over 17,000 sets of parameters are produced, each characterizing a given process; for each process type, 100 realizations are created. The four techniques give the following results in terms of systematic error (bias = average performance test results for β over 100 realizations minus modelled β) and random error (standard deviation of measured β over 100 realizations): (1) Hurst rescaled range (R/S) analysis is not recommended to use due to large systematic errors. (2) Semivariogram analysis shows no systematic errors but large random errors for self-affine noises with 1.2 ≤ β ≤ 2.8. (3) Detrended fluctuation analysis is well suited for time series with thin-tailed probability distributions and for persistence strengths of β ≥ 0.0. (4) Spectral techniques perform the best of all four techniques: for self-affine noises with positive persistence (β ≥ 0.0) and symmetric one-point distributions, they have no systematic errors and, compared to the other three techniques, small random errors; for anti-persistent self-affine noises (β < 0.0) and asymmetric one-point probability distributions, spectral techniques have small systematic and random errors. For quantifying the strength of long-range persistence of a time series, benchmark-based improvements to the estimator predicated on the performance for self-affine noises with the same time series length and one-point probability distribution are proposed. This scheme adjusts for the systematic errors of the considered technique and results in realistic 95 % confidence intervals for the estimated strength of persistence. We finish this paper by quantifying long-range persistence (and corresponding uncertainties) of three geophysical time series—palaeotemperature, river discharge, and Auroral electrojet index—with the three representing three different types of probability distribution—Gaussian, log-normal, and Levy, respectively.  相似文献   

12.
Samples of grass were collected at Masaya Volcano (Nicaragua; Rhynchelytrum repens and Andropogon angustatus) and the Piton de La Fournaise (around the April 2007 eruptive vent, La Réunion; Vetiveria zizanioides) to investigate the controls on major and trace element concentrations in plants around active volcanic vents. Samples were analysed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry for a wide range of elements, and atomic absorption spectroscopy for Hg. At Masaya, As, Cu, Mo, Tl and K concentrations in both grass species showed a simple pattern of variability consistent with exposure to the volcanic plume. Similar variability was found in A. angustatus for Al, Co, Cs, Hg and Mg. At the Piton de La Fournaise, the patterns of variability in V. zizanioides were more complex and related to variable exposures to emissions from both the active vent and lava flow. These results suggest that exposure to volcanic emissions is, for many elements, the main control on compositional variability in vegetation growing on active volcanoes. Thus, vegetation may be an important environmental reservoir for elements emitted by volcanoes and should be considered as part of the global biogeochemical cycles.  相似文献   

13.
In studies involving environmental risk assessment, Gaussian random field generators are often used to yield realizations of a Gaussian random field, and then realizations of the non-Gaussian target random field are obtained by an inverse-normal transformation. Such simulation process requires a set of observed data for estimation of the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) and covariance function of the random field under investigation. However, if realizations of a non-Gaussian random field with specific probability density and covariance function are needed, such observed-data-based simulation process will not work when no observed data are available. In this paper we present details of a gamma random field simulation approach which does not require a set of observed data. A key element of the approach lies on the theoretical relationship between the covariance functions of a gamma random field and its corresponding standard normal random field. Through a set of devised simulation scenarios, the proposed technique is shown to be capable of generating realizations of the given gamma random fields.  相似文献   

14.
Tropical volcanic islands are biodiversity hotspots where the Critical Zone (CZ) still remains poorly studied. In such steep topographic environments associated with extreme climatic events (cyclones), deployment and maintenance of monitoring equipment is highly challenging. While a few Critical Zone Observatories (CZOS) are located in tropical volcanic regions, none of them includes a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest (TMCF) at the watershed scale. We present here the dataset of the first observatory from the French network of critical zone observatories (OZCAR) located in an insular tropical and volcanic context, integrating a ‘Tropical Montane Cloud Forest’: The ERORUN-STAFOR observatory. This collaborative observatory is located in the northern part of La Réunion island (Indian Ocean) within the 45.0 km2 watershed of Rivière des Pluies (i.e., Rainfall river) which hosts the TMCF of Plaines des Fougères, one of the best preserved natural habitats in La Réunion Island. Since 2014, the ERORUN-STAFOR monitoring in collaboration with local partners collected a multidisciplinary dataset with a constant improvement of the instrumentation over time. At the watershed scale and in its vicinity, the ERORUN-STAFOR observatory includes 10 measurement stations covering the upstream, midstream and downstream part of the watershed. The stations record a total of 48 different variables through continuous (sensors) or periodic (sampling) monitoring. The dataset consists of continuous time series variables related to (i) meteorology, including precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, net radiation, atmospheric pressure, cloud water flux, irradiance, leaf wetness and soil temperature, (ii) hydrology, including water level and temperature, discharge and electrical conductivity (EC) of stream, (iii) hydrogeology, including (ground)water level, water temperature and EC in two piezometers and one horizontally drilled groundwater gallery completed by soil moisture measurements under the canopy. The dataset is completed by periodic time series variables related to (iv) hydrogeochemistry, including field parameters and water analysis results. The periodic sampling survey provides chemical and isotopic compositions of rainfall, groundwater, and stream water at different locations of this watershed. The ERORUN-STAFOR monitoring dataset extends from 2014 to 2022 with an acquisition frequency from 10 min to hourly for the sensor variables and from weekly to monthly frequency for the sampling. Despite the frequent maintenance of the monitoring sites, several data gaps exist due to the remote location of some sites and instrument destruction by cyclones. Preliminary results show that the Rivière des Pluies watershed is characterized by high annual precipitation (>3000 mm y−1) and a fast hydrologic response to precipitation (≈2 h basin lag time). The long-term evolution of the deep groundwater recharge is mainly driven by the occurrence of cyclone events with a seasonal groundwater response. The water chemical results support existing hydrogeological conceptual models suggesting a deep infiltration of the upstream infiltrated rainfall. The TMCF of Plaine des Fougères shows a high water storage capacity (>2000% for the Bryophytes) that makes this one a significant input of water to groundwater recharge which still needs to be quantified. This observatory is a unique research site in an insular volcanic tropical environment offering three windows of observation for the study of critical zone processes through upstream-midstream-downstream measurements sites. This high-resolution dataset is valuable to assess the response of volcanic tropical watersheds and aquifers at both event and long-term scales (i.e., global change). It will also provide insights in the hydrogeological conceptual model of volcanic islands, including the significant role of the TMCFs in the recharge processes as well as the watershed hydrosedimentary responses to extreme climatic events and their respective evolution under changing climatic conditions. All data sets are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7983138 .  相似文献   

15.
Estimating and mapping spatial uncertainty of environmental variables is crucial for environmental evaluation and decision making. For a continuous spatial variable, estimation of spatial uncertainty may be conducted in the form of estimating the probability of (not) exceeding a threshold value. In this paper, we introduced a Markov chain geostatistical approach for estimating threshold-exceeding probabilities. The differences of this approach compared to the conventional indicator approach lie with its nonlinear estimators—Markov chain random field models and its incorporation of interclass dependencies through transiograms. We estimated threshold-exceeding probability maps of clay layer thickness through simulation (i.e., using a number of realizations simulated by Markov chain sequential simulation) and interpolation (i.e., direct conditional probability estimation using only the indicator values of sample data), respectively. To evaluate the approach, we also estimated those probability maps using sequential indicator simulation and indicator kriging interpolation. Our results show that (i) the Markov chain approach provides an effective alternative for spatial uncertainty assessment of environmental spatial variables and the probability maps from this approach are more reasonable than those from conventional indicator geostatistics, and (ii) the probability maps estimated through sequential simulation are more realistic than those through interpolation because the latter display some uneven transitions caused by spatial structures of the sample data.  相似文献   

16.
Résumé

L'analyse fréquentielle des pluies mensuelles réalisée à partir des données recueillies sur un réseau de 102 stations reparties sur tout le territoire tunisien, a permis l'identification de la loi statistique la plus adéquate pour représenter la variable des pluies mensuelles en Tunisie. Différentes techniques statistiques ont été utilisées pour identifier la distribution la plus appropriée pour l'ajustement de cette variable pour différentes régions de la Tunisie. Deux lois sont retenues pour l'ajustement de la pluviométrie mensuelle en Tunisie: la loi des fuites et la loi log-normale mixte. Le poids de ces deux lois varie en fonction du temps et de l'espace.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Merzougui, A. et Slimani, M., 2012. Régionalisation des lois de distribution des pluies mensuelles en Tunisie. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 668–;685.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents an approach to perform statistical frequency analysis of water deficit duration and severity using respectively the geometric and exponential distributions. Monthly mean water discharges are compared to a given threshold and classified in two mutually exclusive ways. This leads to a two state random variable such that: a success represents the absence of a water deficit event (mean monthly discharge exceeds threshold), and a failure, a water deficit event (mean monthly discharge is below threshold). If we suppose that this random variable gives rise to a Markov process of order 1, then the duration of a water deficit event X (consecutive months in deficit) will have a geometric distribution. In turn, the summation of discharges in deficit will give the severity of a water deficit event which can be represented by a one-parameter exponential distribution. The threshold or base level is taken as a percentile of the observed mean discharges of a given month. This base level, which varies from month to month, can be viewed as the limit of an acceptable deficit (or energetic failure) associated to a given empirical probability of being in deficit. The second step of the approach is to estimate the value of the parameter for each distribution using the maximum likelihood method. Expressions for the estimator of a given percentile, , as well as its variance are deduced. Finally, the presented models are applied to observed data.  相似文献   

18.
Résumé

L'étude géochimique des eaux souterraines dans la Plaine de la Bekaa montre un faciès calco-magnésien, bicarbonaté, à saturation vis-à-vis de la calcite et de la dolomite, à faible minéralisation et de faible conductivité. Les formations carbonatées (calcite et dolomite) constituent les roches encaissantes des eaux souterraines dans la Plaine de la Bekaa. La recharge des nappes souterraines est à haute altitude et a comme origine les eaux des précipitations qui tombent sur les hautes montagnes qui encadrent la Bekaa à l'est et à l'ouest. Une dissolution des formations gypseuses existe. La minéralisation se fait en système ouvert. Par conséquent le CO2 d'origine biogénique joue un rôle important dans la minéralisation.

Citation Awad, S. (2011) Hydrochimie et faciès géochimiques des eaux souterraines, Plaine de Bekaa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 334–348.  相似文献   

19.
This paper empirically investigates the asymptotic behaviour of the flood probability distribution and more precisely the possible occurrence of heavy tail distributions, generally predicted by multiplicative cascades. Since heavy tails considerably increase the frequency of extremes, they have many practical and societal consequences. A French database of 173 daily discharge time series is analyzed. These series correspond to various climatic and hydrological conditions, drainage areas ranging from 10 to 105 km2, and are from 22 to 95 years long. The peaks-over-threshold method has been used with a set of semi-parametric estimators (Hill and Generalized Hill estimators), and parametric estimators (maximum likelihood and L-moments). We discuss the respective interest of the estimators and compare their respective estimates of the shape parameter of the probability distribution of the peaks. We emphasize the influence of the selected number of the highest observations that are used in the estimation procedure and in this respect the particular interest of the semi-parametric estimators. Nevertheless, the various estimators agree on the prevalence of heavy tails and we point out some links between their presence and hydrological and climatic conditions.  相似文献   

20.
Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong influence of possible non-stationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river flow. Received: March 27, 1997  相似文献   

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