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1.
我们建立了用于地球物理信号对比的一种人机联作的处理方法.对多种信号匹配的算法做了研究、改进和实现,把算法研究和人工测井对比的知识和经验进行归纳,形成基于规则的信号处理,并设计了层次化分解处理结构,实现多种算法的混合运用和数据驱动的算法参数选择.由于结合了相关资料信息和解释人员判断,信号对比问题才能更为适定.人机联作的处理模式以用户的参与来克服一些智能化处理实现的困难.实测结果证明该方法有效. 相似文献
2.
Model complexity and data requirements in snow hydrology: seeking a balance in practical applications 
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下载免费PDF全文 Francesco Avanzi Carlo De Michele Samuel Morin Carlo Maria Carmagnola Antonio Ghezzi Yves Lejeune 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2106-2118
We investigate the problem of balancing model complexity and input data requirements in snow hydrology. For this purpose, we analyze the performance of two models of different complexity in estimating variables of interest in snow hydrology applications. These are snow depth, bulk snow density, snow water equivalent and snowmelt run‐off. We quantify the differences between data and model prediction using 18 years of measurements from an experimental site in the French Alps (Col de Porte, 1325 m AMSL). The models involved in this comparison are a one‐layer temperature‐index model (HyS) and a multilayer model (Crocus). Results show that the expected loss in performance in the one‐layer temperature‐index model with respect to the multilayer model is low when considering snow depth, snow water equivalent and bulk snow density. As for run‐off, the comparison returns less clear indications for identification of a balance. In particular, differences between the models' prediction and data with an hourly resolution are higher when considering the Crocus model than the HyS model. However, Crocus is better at reproducing sub‐daily cycles in this variable. In terms of daily run‐off, the multilayer physically based model seems to be a better choice, while results in terms of cumulative run‐off are comparable. The better reproduction of daily and sub‐daily variability of run‐off suggests that use of the multilayer model may be preferable for this purpose. Variation in performance is discussed as a function of both the calibration solution chosen and the time of year. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
震后建筑火灾涉及因素多,传统评估模型忽略了建筑截面温度变化与建筑形变程度的影响,导致评估准确度较低。为解决此问题,通过模糊数学方法建立震后建筑火灾危险性评估模型。在建立判断矩阵的基础上,获取评估模型权重,确定隶属度矩阵;通过确定震后建筑火灾后截面温度变化评估的因素集与评语集,进行单因素评判,为评估因素集中的因素赋予权重,实现一级模糊评估;再将一级评估结果作为二级评估的单因素评估,结合模糊数学分析完成对震后建筑火灾危险性的评估。实验中以建筑横梁截面温度变化与形变程度为指标,对震后建筑火灾危险性进行评估。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,震后在发生火灾时建筑结构受到火灾影响,横梁截面温度越高,导致形变程度越大,危险性更高,模拟实验结果与实际情况更加接近,所提模型评估精度高。 相似文献
4.
本文评述在研究岩石圈结构时，根据已往采用广角反射波和折射波的信息进行正反演的为研究岩石圈结构。这种研究方法对那种成层性比较发育的地区效果比较好，而对于花岗岩地区或成层性不好的地区，这种方法就无能为力了。这样我们运用了回折波时间场和回折波ＣＴ成像方法相结合的系统来研究下地介质的速度结构，这种方法精度高，简单易行。并用把这种方法与以往用的正反演解释方法相比较，二者结果一致。 相似文献
5.
Giuseppina Scavone Vito Telesca Vicente Caselles Vito A. Copertino Vittoria Pastore Enric Valor 《水文研究》2014,28(1):25-36
Mass and energy transfer between soil, vegetation and atmosphere is the process that allows to maintain an adequate energy and water balance in the earth–atmosphere system. However, the evaluation of the energy balance components, such as the net radiation and the sensible and latent heat fluxes, is characterized by significant uncertainties related to both the dynamic nature of heat transfer processes and surfaces heterogeneity. Therefore, a detailed land use classification and an accurate evaluation of vegetation spatial distribution are required for an accurate estimation of these variables. For this purpose, in the present article, a pixel‐oriented supervised classification was applied to obtain land use maps of the Basilicata region in Southern Italy by processing three Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite images. An accuracy analysis based on the overall accuracy index and the agreement Khat of Cohen coefficient showed a good performance of the applied classification methodology and a good quality of the obtained maps. Subsequently, these maps were used in the application of a simplified two‐source energy balance model for estimating the actual evapotranspiration at a regional scale. The comparison between the simulations made by applying the simplified two‐source energy balance model and the measurements of evapotranspiration at a lysimetric station located in the study area showed the applicability and the validity of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Simplified estimation of seismic risk for reinforced concrete buildings with consideration of corrosion over time 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Daniel Celarec Dimitrios Vamvatsikos Matja? Dol?ek 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(4):1137-1155
Throughout the world, buildings are reaching the end of their design life and develop new pathologies that decrease their structural capacity. Usually the ageing process is neglected in seismic design or seismic risk assessment but may become important for older structures, especially, if they are intended to be in service even after they exceed their design life. Thus, a simplified methodology for seismic performance evaluation with consideration of performance degradation over time is presented, based on an extension of the SAC/FEMA probabilistic framework for estimating mean annual frequencies of limit state exceedance. This is applied to an example of an older three-storey asymmetric reinforced concrete building, in which corrosion has just started to propagate. The seismic performance of the structure is assessed at several successive times and the instantaneous and overall seismic risk is estimated for the near collapse limit state. The structural capacity in terms of the maximum base shear and the maximum roof displacement is shown to decrease over time. Consequently, the time-averaged mean annual frequency of violating the near-collapse limit state increases for the corroded building by about 10% in comparison to the typical case where corrosion is neglected. However, it can be magnified by almost 40% if the near-collapse limit state is related to a brittle shear failure, since corrosion significantly affects transverse reinforcement, raising important questions on the seismic safety of the existing building stock. 相似文献
7.
在强烈地震发生后,会引发建筑火灾等次生灾害,涉及因素较多,传统火灾危险性数学模型忽略了强震后既有建筑发生火灾时不同因素的随机性与模糊性特性,难于建立健全的评估数学模型,导致评估精度低。为解决该问题,通过分析强震后既有建筑火灾影响,用因素模糊数学方法建立强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估数学模型及评估体系。具体方法是对评估指标体系中各层因素针对上层因素影响进行评分,建立判断矩阵,获取权重。确定隶属度矩阵,获取强震后既有建筑火灾危险性评估的因素集与评语集,构造单因素评判,给评估集中的因素赋予权重,进行一级模糊评估。把一级评估结果当成二级评估的单因素评估,通过模糊数学理论完成对强震后既有建筑火灾危险性的评估,得到综合评估结果。实验结果表明,采用所提模型进行危险性评估,得到结果符合实际情况,与其他模型相比,所提模型评估精度高。 相似文献
8.
Water reuse is a viable option to increase urban water supply, especially under new realities of climate change and increasing anthropogenic activities. A sustainable water reuse application should be cost-effective and have acceptable health risk to consumers. Water reuse application evaluation is complex because data acquisitions are usually associated with the problems of uncertainty, hesitancy, and parameterization. In this paper, a generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (GIFSS)-based decision support framework is proposed to provide an effective approach to describe uncertainty and hesitancy in an intuitionistic fuzzy number. In addition, the modified measures of comparison and similarity are proposed to compare water reuse applications. Then, the proposed framework is applied to the City of Penticton (British Columbia, Canada) to evaluate seven water reuse applications. The evaluation results show that the applications of garden flower watering and public parks watering are the most preferred alternatives, which are consistent with the existing practice in the city. Furthermore, the results are highly affected by the generalized parameter and the weights of evaluation criteria. Both the comparison measure-based and similarity measure-based evaluations within the same GIFSS-based framework produce consistent results, indicating an applicable and efficient methodology. 相似文献
9.
CUI-YING ZHOU YUAN-QING ZHU HONG-WEI WANG KAI-LI LIANG PING LI AI-XIANG GUO 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(2):232-237
parameters integrated predictionIn current earthquake prediction, seismological method is considered the first choice. According to rough statistics, there are over 100 seismological parameters used in earthquake prediction in China. That a great number of parameters could be chosen is more convenient, but also causes a lot of troubles at the same time. It is more difficult to decide which one is better among them. In the practical key problem and the 'Eighth Five-Year Plan' key problem on short-period earthquake prediction sponsored by China Seismological Bureau, most of the parameters have been evaluated on efficiency, but it is still not easy to decide which one can be given the priority and which one should be discarded, because the adopted data, the sample numbers and the evaluation criteria were not always consistent in these researches. Therefore, the first problem which the earthquake predictors are facing is how to select the best one from so many seismological parameters. In the past, most of the parameters were used in the seismic cases, but never used in the zone where no strong earthquakes occurred, in this way it is impossible to cast away 'false abnormality'. Furthermore, as the process of seismogeny is nonlinear and complicate, the non-uniqueness and uncertainty of the development process make the seismic precursors different in time, place and earthquake, which often causes false prediction when a single parameter is used. In order to solve the problem better, this paper attempts a new method comparison screening, to select seismological single parameter and to collect a comprehensive seismological parameter on this basis. The basic procedure may be summarized as follows: on the basis of reasonable normalization of various parameters, quantitative comparison screening of some basic seismological parameters by using the two sorts of samples from 'large-magnitude seismic zone' and 'no large-magnitude seismic zone' in North China is conducted, to obtain 'seismic abnormality' and 'aseismic normality' indexes, and then to synthesize these indexes with weighting method according to the strength of the earthquake information to obtain a integrated prediction index which is universal to predict the earthquakes in North China, and meanwhile develop a new seismological prediction method which is abbreviated as SQIP (seismological quantitative integrated prediction method). 相似文献
10.
T. B. M. J. Ouarda J. W. Labadie 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2001,15(3):185-204
A vast array of techniques have been developed and applied to optimal operation of large-scale multireservoir systems. Researchers
continue to be challenged by the highly complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and high dimensional nature of this dynamic optimization
problem. An optimal control model is presented which incorporates chance-constraints on system state variables that assure
satisfaction of operational restrictions under specified levels of reliability. The chance-constrained optimal control (CCOC)
model is tested on a four-reservoir case study, and its performance assessed based on various quantitative and qualitative
criteria, including maintenance of acceptable levels of risk and provision of risk-benefit trade-off information. The concepts
of reliability, resiliency and vulnerability are utilized to characterize operating policies generated by the algorithm. CCOC
is recommended for operational guidance of large-scale multireservoir systems due to its robustness, flexibility, modest computational
requirements, and ability to include risk considerations directly impacting the choice of operational schemes. 相似文献
11.
The paper aims to evaluate the way Eurocode 8 treats the consideration of asynchronous earthquake ground motion during the
seismic design of bridges, and to discuss alternative solutions for cases wherein existing provisions do not lead to satisfactory
results. The evaluation of EC8-2 new provisions and simplified methods is performed through comparison with a more refined
approach whereas an effort is made to quantitatively assess the relative importance of various design and analysis assumptions
that have to be made when spatial variability of ground motion is taken into consideration, based on the study of the dynamic
response of 27 different bridges. It is concluded that, despite the complexity of the problem, there are specific cases where
EC8 provisions can be safely and easily applied in practice, while in other cases ignoring the effect of asynchronous excitation
or performing simplified calculations can significantly underestimate the actual seismic demand. 相似文献
12.
以某大跨公路拱桥为例,通过对拱桥在三种行波输入模式下地震反应的对比计算,提出了拱脚行波输入的简化输入方式;利用拱桥结构的对称性特点,提出了多点输入下半拱叠加的简化计算方法。经验证,这一计算方法具有良好的计算精度,可将较为复杂的拱桥多点输入地震反应计算问题,转化为工程技术人员熟悉的一致输入下地震反应计算问题。 相似文献
13.
Xiaobei Liang Demian Chen Da Ruan Bingyong Tang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(4):415-423
The financial supply chain is increasingly recognized as an area offering significant potential for generating bottom-line
improvements and creating competitive advantage. Insurers’ appraisal is one of the basic decisions for a company, and the
choosing course has always many criterions. Considering the stability of the financial supply chain, the coordination evaluation
and fuzzy multi-objective evaluation model of insurers’ risk management are firstly studied in this paper by using large system
theory and methods. The corresponding coordination evaluation index model is then established to evaluate, forecast and control
the actuality and the future of risk coordination management, and to improve the durative development for a combination pension
model. The evaluation standards of numerous insurers are established to constitute a set of vectors. By presenting a dimensional
point to each insurer, the optimal or the worst insurer is decided. Finally, the distances of each insurer to the optimal
or the worst insurer on the basis of the Euclidean distance are counted, and the insurers’ ordering according to the value
of distances is sorted out. The financial supply chain and large system theory and methods are combined to contribute new
evaluation models that revise the deficiency of intrinsic model and improve the financial stability. 相似文献
14.
To serve as a tool in the long term evaluation of the risk of accumulation of microbial contaminants (bacteria and viruses) entering soil and groundwater, a mathematical model is developed to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of pollutant concentration. The governing equation for bacterial transport is coupled with a transport equation for the bacterial nutrient present in the seeping wastewater. The deposition and declogging mechanisms are incorporated into the model as a rate process for bacteria and as an equilibrium partitioning for viruses. While the decay is assumed to be a first order reaction and the growth of bacteria is assumed to follow the Monod equation, the model equations exhibit nonlinearity and coupling. A simplified set of equations is solved analytically to test the numerical results. Coupled numerical solutions in one and two dimensions are obtained by the Galerkin method at spatial and temporal locations of interest. Cases studied included a soil column and a horizontal two-dimensional field coupled with the one dimensional solution. For these examples, the bacteria are removed almost totally within the top 7 cm of soil with minimal risk of clogging. 相似文献
15.
Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modeling 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Uncertainty of hydrogeologic conditions makes it important to consider alternative plausible models in an effort to evaluate the character of a ground water system, maintain parsimony, and make predictions with reasonable definition of their uncertainty. When multiple models are considered, data collection and analysis focus on evaluation of which model(s) is(are) most supported by the data. Generally, more than one model provides a similar acceptable fit to the observations; thus, inference should be made from multiple models. Kullback-Leibler (K-L) information provides a rigorous foundation for model inference that is simple to compute, is easy to interpret, selects parsimonious models, and provides a more realistic measure of precision than evaluation of any one model or evaluation based on other commonly referenced model selection criteria. These alternative criteria strive to identify the true (or quasi-true) model, assume it is represented by one of the models in the set, and given their preference for parsimony regardless of the available number of observations the selected model may be underfit. This is in sharp contrast to the K-L information approach, where models are considered to be approximations to reality, and it is expected that more details of the system will be revealed when more data are available. We provide a simple, computer-generated example to illustrate the procedure for multimodel inference based on K-L information and present arguments, based on statistical underpinnings that have been overlooked with time, that its theoretical basis renders it preferable to other approaches. 相似文献
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17.
In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy. 相似文献
18.
Dynamic risk assessment model for flood disaster on a projection pursuit cluster and its application 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Jun Zhao Juliang Jin Qizhong Guo Li Liu Yaqian Chen Mei Pan 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(8):2175-2183
Aiming at reducing the losses from flood disaster, a dynamic risk assessment model for flood disaster is studied in this article. This model is built upon the projection pursuit cluster principle and risk indexes in the system, proceeding from the whole structure to its component parts. In this study, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy approach is employed to screen out the index system and determine the index weight, while the future value of each index is simulated by an improved back-propagation neural network algorithm. The proposed model adopts a dynamic evaluation method to analyze temporal data and assesses risk development by comprehensive analysis. The projection pursuit theory is used for clustering spatial data. The optimal projection vector is applied to calculate the risk cluster type. Therefore, the flood disaster risk level is confirmed and then the local conditions for presenting the control strategy. This study takes the Tunxi area, Huangshan city, as an example. After dynamic risk assessment model establishment, verification and application for flood disasters between the actual and simulated data from 2001 to 2013, the comprehensive risk assessment results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk is still in a decline on the whole, despite the rise in a few years. This is in accordance with the actual conditions. The proposed model is shown to be feasible for theory and application, providing a new way to assess flood disaster risk. 相似文献
19.
Experience has shown that researchers and engineers are unable to construct ideal models for risk assessment and make optimal decisions in situations with insufficient data. A nonlinear risk assessment model is therefore proposed in this study based on an improved projection pursuit model (IPPM) for use in situations where insufficient data are available. A new projection index is initially proposed based on the maximum entropy principle in order to extract more information from original multidimensional data before a nonlinear risk assessment function is constructed using differential equation modeling. This function can be applied to all risk assessment problems after performing standardization and dimension reduction for the indicators. Five marine environmental risk assessment experiments for naval activity are then performed to train and validate the IPPM, as well as a traditional projection pursuit model using different numbers of training samples. The results of this analysis show that the IPPM is reliable, robust, and consistent, and can improve risk assessments by between 4.3 and 43.7% depending on performance criteria. Satisfactory results are obtained from the IPPM using just 12 training samples, and an acceptable result is still obtained if this number is reduced to just ten. Application of an IPPM therefore represents a valuable tool for risk assessment in situations where data is insufficient. 相似文献
20.