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The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.  相似文献   
2.
In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy.  相似文献   
3.
This paper investigates the non-linear seismic behavior of structures such as slender unreinforced masonry shear walls or precast post-tensioned reinforced concrete elements, which have little hysteretic energy dissipation capacity. Even if this type of seismic response may be associated with significant deformation capacity, it is usually not considered as an efficient mechanism to withstand strong earthquakes. The objective of the investigations is to propose values of strength reduction factors for seismic analysis of such structures. The first part of the study is focused on non-linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. A parametric study is performed by computing the displacement ductility demand of non-linear SDOF systems for a set of 164 recorded ground motions selected from the European Strong Motion Database. The parameters investigated are the natural frequency, the strength reduction factor, the post-yield stiffness ratio, the hysteretic energy dissipation capacity and the hysteretic behavior model (four different hysteretic models: bilinear self-centring, with limited or without energy dissipation capacity, modified Takeda and Elastoplastic). Results confirm that the natural frequency has little influence on the displacement ductility demand if it is below a frequency limit and vice versa. The frequency limit is found to be around 2 Hz for all hysteretic models. Moreover, they show that the other parameters, especially the hysteretic behavior model, have little influence on the displacement ductility demand. New relationships between the displacement ductility demand and the strength reduction factor for structures having little hysteretic energy dissipation capacity are proposed. These relationships are an improvement of the equal displacement rule for the considered hysteretic models. In the second part of the investigation, the parametric study is extended to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems. The investigation shows that the results obtained for SDOF systems are also valid for MDOF systems. However, the SDOF system overestimates the displacement ductility demand in comparison to the corresponding MDOF system by approximately 15%.  相似文献   
4.
In this paper, different methods for generating synthetic earthquakes are compared in terms of related non-linear seismic response of ductile structures. The objective of the investigation is to formulate recommendations for the use of synthetic earthquakes for reliable seismic analysis. The comparison is focused on the accuracy of the reproduction of the characteristics of the structural non-linear response due to recorded earthquakes. First the investigations are carried out for non-linear single-degree-of-freedom systems. Later, the results are validated for a set of realistic buildings modelled as multi-degree-of-freedom systems. Various options of the classical stationary simulation procedure of SIMQKE and a non-stationary simulation procedure proposed by Sabetta and Pugliese are examined and compared. The adopted methodology uses a set of recorded earthquakes as a reference. Hundred synthetic accelerograms are generated for each examined simulation option with the condition that the related elastic responses are similar to those of the reference set. The non-linear single-degree-of-freedom systems are defined using six recognized hysteretic models and four levels of increasing non-linearity. The non-linear responses computed for the reference set and the studied simulation options are then statistically compared in terms of displacement ductility and energy. The results show that the implementation of the classical stationary procedure always leads to a significant underestimation of the ductility demand and a significant overestimation of the energy demand. By contrast, non-stationary time histories produce much better results. The results with the multi-degree-of-freedom systems are shown to confirm these conclusions.  相似文献   
5.
The prediction of non-linear seismic demand using linear elastic behavior for the determination of peak non-linear response is widely used for seismic design as well as for vulnerability assessment. Existing methods use either linear response based on initial period and damping ratio, eventually corrected with factors, or linear response based on increased equivalent period and damping ratio. Improvements to the original EC8 procedure for displacement demand prediction are proposed in this study. Both propositions may be graphically approximated, which is a significant advantage for practical application. A comparison with several other methods (equal displacement rule, EC8 procedure, secant stiffness and empirical equivalent period methods) is performed. The study is based on non-linear SDOF systems subjected to recorded earthquakes, modified to match design response spectra of different ground types, and focuses on the low frequency range that is of interest for most European buildings. All results are represented in the spectral displacement/fundamental period plane that highlights the predominant effect of the fundamental period on the displacement demand. This study shows that linearized methods perform well at low strength reduction factors but may strongly underestimate the displacement demand at strength reduction factors greater than 2. This underestimation is an important issue, especially for assessment of existing buildings, which are often related with low lateral strength. In such cases, the corresponding strength reduction factors are therefore much larger than 2. The new proposals significantly improve the reliability of displacement demand prediction for values of strength reduction factors greater than 2 compared to the original EC8 procedure. As a consequence, for the seismic assessment of existing structures, such as unreinforced masonry low-rise buildings, the current procedure of EC8 should be modified in order to provide accurate predictions of the displacement demand in the domain of the response spectrum plateau.  相似文献   
6.
A first probabilistic scenario-based hazard assessment for tephra fallout is presented for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy) and subsequently used to assess the impact on the built environment. Eruption scenarios are based upon the stratigraphy produced by the last 1000 years of activity at Vulcano and include long–lasting Vulcanian and sub-Plinian eruptions. A new method is proposed to quantify the evolution through time of the hazard associated with pulsatory Vulcanian eruptions lasting from weeks to years, and the increase in hazard related to typical rainfall events around Sicily is also accounted for. The impact assessment on the roofs is performed by combining a field characterization of the buildings with the composite European vulnerability curves for typical roofing stocks. Results show that a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 2 is not likely to affect buildings, whereas a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 3 results in 90 % of the building stock having a ≥12 % probability of collapse. The hazard related to long-lasting Vulcanian eruptions evolves through time, and our analysis shows that the town of Il Piano, located downwind of the preferential wind patterns, is likely to reach critical tephra accumulations for roof collapse 5–9 months after the onset of the eruption. If no cleaning measures are taken, half of the building stock has a probability >20 % of suffering roof collapse.  相似文献   
7.
This paper investigates the response of nonstructural components in the presence of nonlinear behavior of the primary structure using floor response spectra method (FRS). The effect of several parameters such as initial natural frequency of the primary structure, natural frequency of the nonstructural components (subsystem), strength reduction factor and hysteretic model have been studied. A database of 164 registered ground acceleration time histories from the European Strong-Motion Database is used. Results are presented in terms of amplification factor and resonance factor. Amplification factor quantifies the effect of inelastic deformations of the primary structure on subsystem response. Resonance factor quantifies the variation of the subsystem response considering the primary structure acceleration. Obtained results differed from precedent studies, particularly for higher primary structure periods. Values of amplification factor are improved. Obtained results of resonance factor highlight an underestimation of peak values according to current design codes such as Eurocode 8. Therefore a new formulation is proposed.  相似文献   
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