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1.
A mesoscale boundary-layer model (BLM) is used for running 12-h low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region. Several
experiments are performed with different boundary conditions that include operational forecasts of the Eta/CPTEC model, local
observations, as well as a combination of both. The BLM wind forecasts are compared to the surface wind observations of five
weather stations during the period November 2003–April 2004. Two accuracy measures are used: the hit rate or percentage of
cases with agreement in the wind direction sector, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the horizontal wind components.
The BLM surface wind forecasts are always more accurate, since its averaged hit rate is three times greater and its averaged
RMSE is one half smaller than the Eta forecasts. Despite the large errors in the surface winds displayed by the Eta forecasts,
its 850 hPa winds and surface temperature forecasts are able to drive the BLM model to obtain surface winds forecasts with
smaller errors than the Eta model. An additional experiment demonstrates that the advantage of using the BLM model for forecasting
low-level winds over the La Plata River region is the result of a more appropriate definition of the land–river surface temperature
contrast. The particular formulation that the BLM model has for the geometry of the river coasts is fundamental for resolving
the smaller scale details of the low-level local circulation. The main conclusion of the study is that operational low-level
wind forecasts for the La Plata River region can be improved by running the BLM model forced by the Eta operational forecasts.
L. Sraibman and G. J. Berri—Members of Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) of Argentina.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
2.
Paul Joe Cliff Crozier Norman Donaldson Dave Etkin Erik Brun Steve Clodman 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):249-302
Abstract Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings. 相似文献
3.
The coverage of satellite derived winds over the Indian region including Indian Ocean has improved by the operation of India’s first dedicated satellite for meteorology, KALPANA-1 since 12 September 2002. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are being derived at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi on a routine operational basis. The AMV is recognized as an important source of information for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and is particularly suited for tracking the low and middle level clouds mainly because of the good contrast in albedo between target and background, whereas the upper level moisture pattern can be better tracked by water vapor winds (WVW) using water vapor (WV) channel (5.7–7.1 μm). The WVWs proved to be a very useful wind product for predicting the future track position of cyclones, well marked low pressure areas or heavy rainfall warnings in advance and so, often these types of weather systems are steered by the upper level winds. In the present study, the quantitative as well as qualitative analyses of KALPANA-1 WVW have been carried out. The primary change introduced is making use of first guess (FG) forecast fields obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Global Forecast System (GFS), at a resolution of 1° × 1° with T-382/L64 instead of forecasts of operational limited area model (LAM) of IMD. The overall results showed a consistent improvement after using improved FG wind fields from NCEP instead of LAM with a significantly increasing number of good qualities of KALPANA-1 derived WVWs. The quantitative error analysis has also been carried out for the validation of WVWs using collocated radiosonde observations for the period from May 2008 to December 2009 and the available mid-upper level winds derived from METEOSAT-7 data for the period from October to December 2008. The analysis shows that after modification, the RMSE and bias of KALPANA-1 WVWs have reduced considerably. Further, to assess the impact of these winds, a high resolution mesoscale model WRF 3DVAR system is used in the present study for the analysis of tropical cyclone ‘Sidr’. The results show that the wind assimilation experiments (analysis at 200 hPa) using upper level KALPANA-1 WVW have great potential for improving the NWP analysis. The impact of additional wind data in the model is found to be positive and beneficial. 相似文献
4.
Modelling Near-Surface Low Winds over Land under Stable Conditions: Sensitivity Tests,Flux-Gradient Relationships,and Stability Parameters 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Low or weak wind-speed conditions, roughly defined as the periods when the mean wind speed at 10 m above the ground is 2 ms−1 or less, are of considerable practical interest. However, they are not readily amenable to treatment within prognostic meteorological
models and, consequently, difficult to predict, especially when the ambient stability is strong. In this paper, we apply an
E − ε prognostic meteorological model to simulate near-surface meteorology and, focusing on low wind speeds, compare the predictions
with measurements from two independent datasets. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the possible reasons for
the relatively inferior model performance for low winds when the atmosphere is stably stratified. A comprehensive data analysis
is carried out to study low wind stable conditions, concentrating on the validity of various forms of flux–gradient relationships
for momentum and heat within the framework of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, which models employ for calculating surface
fluxes. The observed behaviour of various stability parameters, such as the Richardson number, is investigated. The results
point to inadequacies of the current flux–gradient relationships, especially regarding momentum, under strongly stable conditions
as being a dominant reason for the poor low wind predictions. The modelling issues identified are not just restricted to the
present model, but are general in nature. The use of an alternative stability function for momentum under strongly stable
conditions is explored. It results in improved model performance for low winds; however, further research is needed to better
understand strongly stable flows in the lower atmosphere and to develop methods that can translate that understanding to operational
meteorological modelling. 相似文献
5.
6.
Procedures have been implemented at the Climate Analysis Center of the National Meteorological Center (CAC/NMC) to provide montly hindcasts of oceanographic conditions in the tropical Pacific. A central component of this system is a primitive equation ocean general circulation model that was developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This is forced with monthly mean fields for wind stress and net heat flux. Until recently the former were derived from ship reports available on the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). The heat fluxes are slightly modified climatological fluxes from Esbensen and Kushnir. To correct for errors in the simulations, thermal data in the upper 450 and surface-temperature data are assimilated montly.Numerical experiments were run to examine the sensitivity of the simulations to small changes in the stress fields. Variations of the drag coefficient by 15% result in differences in sea-surface temperature (SST) and subsurface thermal structure in the eastern Pacific that are comparable with the observed annual and interannual variability. Comparisons with simulations in which the wind stresses were derived from operational atmospheric analyses show sensitivities of the same magnitude. Comparisons of simulations forced either with these of ship-recorded winds to a run with data assimilation show that significant errors are found in both, especially in the off-equatorial regions. Consequently, until forcing fields are improved, accurate simulations will require the use of data assimilation. 相似文献
7.
Diana J. M. Greenslade Eric W. Schulz Jeff D. Kepert Graham R. Warren 《Journal of Atmospheric & Ocean Science》2005,10(3):261-287
Recent work has demonstrated that surface marine winds from the Bureau of Meteorology's operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems are typically underestimated by 5 to 10%. This is likely to cause significant bias in modelled wave fields that are forced by these winds. A simple statistical adjustment of the wind components is shown to reduce the observed bias in Significant Wave Height considerably. The impact of increasing the vertical resolution of the NWP model and assimilating scatterometer data into the model is assessed by comparing the resulting forecast wind and waves to observations. It is found that, in general, the inclusion of scatterometer observations improves the accuracy of the surface wind forecasts. However, most of the improvement is shown to arise from the increased number of vertical levels in the atmospheric model, rather than directly from the use of the observations. When the wave model is forced with surface winds from the NWP model that includes scatterometer data, it is found that the scatterometer assimilation does not reduce the systematic bias in surface wave forecasts, but that the random errors are reduced. 相似文献
8.
A three-level model system for the prediction of local flows in mountainous terrain is described. The system is based upon
an operational weather prediction model with a horizontal grid spacing of about 10 km. The large-scale flow is transformed
to a more detailed terrain, first by a mesoscale model with grid spacing of about 1 km, and then by a local-scale model with
a grid spacing of about 0.2 km. The weather prediction model is hydrostatic, while the two other models are non-hydrostatic.
As a case study the model system has been applied to estimate wind and turbulence over Várnes airport, Norway, where data
on turbulent flight conditions were provided near the runway. The actual case was chosen due to previous experiences, which
indicate that south-easterly winds may cause severe turbulence in a region close to the airport. Local terrain induced turbulence
seems to be the main reason for these effects. The predicted local flow in the actual region is characterized by narrow secondary
vortices along the flow, and large turbulent intensity associated with these vortices. A similar pattern is indicated by the
sparse observations, although there seems to be a difference in mean wind direction between data and predictions. Due to fairly
coarse data for sea surface temperature, errors could be induced in the turbulence damping via the Richardson number. An adjustment
for this data problem improved the predictions. 相似文献
9.
云迹风资料的三维变分同化及对台风预报的影响试验 总被引：17，自引：13，他引：17
主要研究云迹风资料对三维变分同化分析场及台风预报的影响。首先分析了不同通道和层次的静止气象卫星云迹风产品的误差特征；然后，把云迹风资料放到GRAPES三维变分同化系统中进行同化，通过将不同观测类型资料的同化结果进行对比，探讨了红外通道和水汽通道云迹风资料对数值预报分析场的影响；最后，把同化后的分析场作为初始场，用WRF模式对2002年“森拉克”台风做24小时预报实验。结果表明，不同通道和层次的云迹风资料具有不同的误差特征；云迹风资料可以提高分析场和预报场中风压场的质量；而且在台风预报试验中可以更准确地预报台风的路径和降水。 相似文献
10.
In the significant part of the territory of Russia and other northern countries, the snowstorm is a frequently observed hazardous meteorological phenomenon. The significant duration of the cold period and the presence of vast snow areas as well as synoptic and orographic factors that cause the formation of strong winds, create the conditions for the snowstorm activity in the most part of Russia. In the present paper, an algorithm is proposed of the snowstorm forecast (separately for overall and ground snowstorms) for Murmansk region and Central Federal District based on the data of WRF-ARW modern hydrodynamic regional model used in the operational practice in the Hydrometcenter of Russia. 相似文献
11.
Two weeks of measurements of the boundary-layer height over a small island (Christiansø) in the Baltic Sea are discussed. The meteorological conditions are characterised by positive heat flux over the sea. The boundary-layer height was simulated with two models, a simple applied high-resolution (2 km × 2 km) model, and the operational numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM (grid resolution of 22.5 km × 22.5 km). For southwesterly winds it was foundthat a relatively large island (Bornholm) lying 20-km upwind of the measuring site influences the boundary-layer height. In this situation the high-resolution simple applied model reproduces the characteristics of the boundary-layer height over the measuring site. Richardson-number based methods using data from simulations with the HIRLAM model fail, most likely because the island and the water fetch to the measuring site are about the size of the grid resolution of the HIRLAM model and therefore poorly resolved. For northerly winds, the water fetch to the measuring site is about 100 km. Both models reproduce the characteristics of the height of the marine boundary layer. This suggests that the HIRLAM model adequately resolves a water fetch of 100 km with respect to predictions of the height of the marine boundary layer. 相似文献
12.
J. E. Walsh A. Lynch W. Chapman D. Musgrave 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1993,51(3-4):179-194
Summary Asa step in the development of a fully coupled regional model of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, atmospheric and sea ice models have been adapted to a western Arctic domain centered on the Bering Strait. Lateral boundary conditions derived from operational analyses drive the models through simulations on grids having horizontal resolutions of 21 km and 7 km. Sensitivities to the presence of sea ice are large after only 48 hours, by which time the surface temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are 10–15°C higher without sea ice than with sea ice. The temperatures, in turn, modify the fields of sea level pressure, surface wind and precipitation. By influencing the surface wind stress through the static static stability, the surface state feeds back to the surface momentum exchange, ice/ocean transport, and the rate of formation of new ice. The results also show a resolution-dependence of the surface winds, precipitation rates and new ice formation rates, particularly in areas in which the coastal configuration and topography are spatially complex. The experiments will be augmented by the implementation of an ocean model on the same grids.With 12 Figures 相似文献
13.
Ariane Koch-Larrouy Matthieu Lengaigne Pascal Terray Gurvan Madec Sebastien Masson 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(6):891-904
The sensitivity of the tropical climate to tidal mixing in the Indonesian Archipelago (IA) is investigated using a coupled
general circulation model. It is shown that the introduction of tidal mixing considerably improves water masses properties
in the IA, generating fresh and cold anomalies in the thermocline and salty and cold anomalies at the surface. The subsurface
fresh anomalies are advected in the Indian Ocean thermocline and ultimately surface to freshen the western part of the basin
whereas surface salty anomalies are advected in the Leuwin current to salt waters along the Australian coast. The ~0.5°C surface
cooling in the IA reduces by 20% the overlying deep convection. This improves both the amount and structure of the rainfall
and weakens the wind convergence over the IA, relaxes the equatorial Pacific trade winds and strengthens the winds along Java
coast. These wind changes causes the thermocline to be deeper in the eastern equatorial Pacific and shallower in the eastern
Indian Ocean. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is therefore slightly reduced while the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal
Mode (IODZM) variability increases. IODZM precursors, related to ENSO events the preceding winter in this model, are also
shown to be more efficient in promoting an IODZM thanks to an enhanced wind/thermocline coupling. Changes in the coupled system
in response tidal mixing are as large as those found when closing the Indonesian Throughflow, emphasizing the key role of
IA on the Indo-Pacific climate. 相似文献
14.
This study compares different simple mixing schemes for one-dimensional models and then focuses on the two-scale mixing approach. Two-scale mixing consists of local diffusion between adjacent grid levels and nonlocal mixing over the bulk of the boundary layer (nonlocal mixing). The latter represents nonlocal mixing by the boundary-layer scale eddies. A common example of two-scale mixing is the formulation of the turbulent heat transport in terms of an eddy diffusivity to represent small-scale diffusion and a countergradient correction to represent boundary-layer scale transport. Most existing two-scale approaches are applied to heat and moisture transport while momentum transport is simultaneously parameterized only in terms of a local diffusivity without nonlocal mixing. This study attempts to correct this inconsistency.The resulting model is compared with Lidar observations of spatially averaged winds which are found to be superior to radiosonde and aircraft data for determining the mean structure. The two-scale mixing correctly predicts the observed well mixed conditions for momentum while the original model based on a local diffusivity for momentum fails to produce a well mixed state. Unfortunately, the best value for the adjustable coefficient in the nonlocal mixing part of the two-scale approach appears to depend on baroclinity in a way which can not be completely resolved from existing data. 相似文献
15.
Impact of Sea-Spray on the Atmospheric Surface Layer 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The feedback effects of sea-spray on the heat and momentum fluxes under equilibrium conditions associated with winds of tropical
cyclones are investigated using a one-dimensional coupled sea-spray and atmospheric surface-layer (ASL) model. This model
is capable of simulating the microphysical aspects of the evaporation of saline water droplets of various sizes and their
dynamic and thermal interaction with the turbulence mixing that is simulated by the Mellor–Yamada 1.5-order closure scheme.
Sea-spray droplet generation is described by a state-of-the-art parametrization that predicts the size spectrum of sea-spray
droplets for a given surface forcing. The results from a series of simulations indicate the way in which evaporating droplets
of various sizes modify the turbulence mixing near the surface, which in turn affects further droplet evaporation. All these
results are direct consequences of the effects of sea-spray on the balance of turbulent kinetic energy in the spray-filled
surface layer. In particular, the overall impact of sea-spray droplets on the mean wind depends on the wind speed at the level
of sea-spray generation. When the wind speed is below 40 m s−1, the droplets are small in size and tend to evaporate substantially and thus cool the spray-filled layer, while for wind
speeds above 50 m s−1, the size of the droplets is so large that they do not have enough time to evaporate much before falling back into the sea.
The sensible heat carried by the droplets is released to the ambient air, increasing the buoyancy of the surface layer and
enhancing the turbulent mixing. The suspension of sea-spray droplets reduces the buoyancy and makes the surface layer more
stable, decreasing the friction velocity and the downward turbulent mixing of momentum. The results from the numerical experiments
also suggest that, in order not to violate the constant flux assumption critical to the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, a
displacement equal to the mean wave height should be included in the logarithmic profiles of the wind and thermal fields. 相似文献
16.
lvaro Peliz Ana Teles-Machado Patrick Marchesiello Jesus Dubert Jesus Garcia Lafuente 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2009,46(1-4):36-45
We present a case study of the generation of a cold filament rooted off the southwestern edge of the Strait of Gibraltar (Atlantic side) during the summer of 2000. The event is successfully simulated using high-resolution atmospheric and oceanic numerical models. It is shown that a sharp filament may develop oceanwards with little modification of the Atlantic inflow into the Mediterranean, contrary to usual expectations. The filament is essentially driven by the surface layer response to Gap winds occurring during Levanter conditions. The easterly wind funnelling in the Strait generates a strong wind jet and intense wind curl which impacts the oceanic surface layer through Ekman pumping and mixing processes. The generation and fate of the filament is very similar to the Gulf of Tehuantepec case, where strong Gap wind events produce asymmetric deformation and erosion of the thermocline that tends to favour anticyclonic mesoscale circulations. Our observations and model results from both realistic and idealized experiments suggest that similar phenomena are present in the Gulf of Cadiz, but they are altered by the persisting Atlantic inflow, so that the response to Gap winds is not as dramatic. 相似文献
17.
S. K. Deb Inderpreet Kaur C. M. Kishtawal P. K. Pal 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(3-4):693-702
The operational derivation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) using infrared (10.5–12.5 μm) and water vapor (6.3–7.1 μm) channels of successive geostationary satellite images started in the 1980s. Subsequently, AMVs have become an important component for operational numerical weather prediction throughout the globe for the last decade or so. In India, at the Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organisation, the operational derivation of AMVs (infrared winds and water vapor winds) from the Indian geostationary satellite Kalpana-1 has been initiated a few years back. Recently, an L-band radar lower atmosphere wind profiler (LAWP) has been installed at the National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki located at (13.58°N, 79.28°E) for continuous high-resolution wind measurements in the lower atmosphere. In this study, a comparison of Kalpana-1 AMVs with wind measurements from LAWP and radiosonde has been carried out for a period of one and a half years. The performances of Kalpana-1 AMVs are also assessed by a separate comparison of Meteosat-7 AMVs, derived at the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, with wind measurements from LAWP and radiosonde. Both sets of comparison show that AMVs from Kalpana-1 and Meteosat-7 are comparable over the Indian Ocean region. 相似文献
18.
梅雨锋强降水与低空急流日变化的观测分析和数值模拟 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：6
利用地面加密自动站逐小时观测资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了2011年6月江淮流域的5次强降水过程和西南低空急流的日变化特征。发现强降水的日变化与西南低空急流的日变化一致:02—08时增强,14时减弱。这主要是由于夜间边界层内的惯性振荡,导致西南低空急流增强从而使得梅雨锋水汽通量辐合增强,降水增强;而白天由于边界层混合摩擦力增大,致使西南低空急流减弱或消失,降水减弱。WRF数值模拟试验不仅重现了观测的日变化特征,而且证实了江淮暴雨和西南低空急流的日变化主要是由非地转风的日变化造成:白天边界层混合强,风为次地转;而夜间边界层混合消失,气压梯度力和科氏力平衡的惯性振荡使得风为超地转 相似文献
19.
Typhoon Rananim (0414) has been simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional
Prediction System (ARPS) from Center of Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS). The prediction of
Rananim has generally been improved with ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data.
Numerical experiments with or without using the radar data have shown that model initial fields with the
assimilated radar radial velocity data in ARPS can change the wind field at the middle and high levels of
the troposphere; fine characteristics of the tropical cyclone (TC) are introduced into the initial wind, the x
component of wind speed south of the TC is increased and so is the y component west of it. They lead to
improved forecasting of TC tracks for the time after landfall. The field of water vapor mixing ratio,
temperature, cloud water mixing ratio and rainwater mixing ratio have also been improved by using radar
reflectivity data. The model’s initial response to the introduction of hydrometeors has been increased. It is
shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, by greatly improving
the forecasting of TC rainfall, and heavy rainstorm of the TC specially, as well as its distribution and
variation with time. 相似文献
20.
Two fair weather afternoons have been examined, where the urban boundary layer over St. Louis, though exhibiting similar thermal characteristics, had a markedly different kinematic structure. The turbulent nature of the boundary layer was examined through analysis of double theodolite wind profiles at an urban and at a rural site on each day. On 14 July 1975, the winds increased with height above the inversion at both sites and on the following day, the winds decreased above the boundary layer in the same region. While the mean wind speed in the lowest 0.8 km agl was similar on both days, the turbulence characteristics of the urban boundary-layer winds were distinctly different on these two afternoons. This was evidenced by the variance of the wind and is in agreement with simultaneous aircraft measurements reported by Hildebrand and Ackerman (1984). A similar difference in turbulence was not found over the rural site. It is suggested that the enhanced turbulence at the urban site on 14 July is likely associated with the wind profile immediately above the boundary layer, where the downward flux of high momentum air from above the inversion may have resulted in stronger mechanical mixing within the boundary layer. 相似文献