共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
基于能源消耗数据,采用IPCC碳核算方法和LMDI分解模型,探讨了2000—2019年江西省一次能源消费碳排放的变化及其主要影响因素,并通过Tapio脱钩模型进一步分析了经济增长与能源碳排放脱钩特征。结果表明：1)一次能源碳排放量整体呈上升趋势,碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势,其中2015年以后碳排放量年均增长速度放缓、碳排放强度下降速度加快。2)对碳排放量增加起促进作用的因素为人口效应、经济产出效应和能源结构效应,其中经济产出效应的作用最为显著;起抑制作用的要素为能源强度效应,能源替代效应不明显。与2000—2015年仅能源强度效应使碳排放量下降的情况不同,2015—2019年能源强度效应、能源替代效应和能源结构效应均使碳排放量下降,其中能源强度效应贡献率比2000—2015年高3倍。3)经济增长与能源消费碳排放量以弱脱钩为主,其中2016—2019年脱钩弹性呈逐渐减小趋势。 相似文献
2.
基于全生命周期评价理论,建立了建筑全生命周期碳排放计算模型,以严寒地区某近零能耗建筑为例,开展了建筑全生命周期碳排放核算.同时,选取了建筑保温材料类型、保温材料厚度、窗户类型、窗墙面积比、供暖系统形式以及建筑使用寿命等影响因素,开展了建筑碳排放影响因素研究.结果表明:近零能耗建筑全生命周期内建材生产运输、建筑施工、建筑... 相似文献
3.
The Agriculture and Land Use (AgLU) model is a top-downeconomic model with just enough structure to simulate globalland-use change and the resulting carbon emissions over one century.These simulations are done with and without a carbon policy representedby a positive carbon price. Increases in the carbon price createincentives for production of commercial biomass that affect thedistribution of other land types and, therefore, carbon emissionsfrom land-use change. Commercial biomass provides a link betweenthe agricultural and energy systems. The Integrated Assessmentof Climate Protection Strategies (ICLIPS) core model uses AgLUto provide estimates of carbon emissions from land-use changeas one component of total greenhouse gas emissions. Each majorland-use type is assigned an average carbon density used to calculatea total carbon stock; carbon emissions from land-use change arecalculated as the change in carbon stock between time periods.Significant carbon emissions from land-use change are presenteven in the reference scenario. An aggressive ICLIPS mitigationscenario results in carbon emissions from land-use change upto 800 million metric tons per year above the AgLU referencescenario. 相似文献
4.
在全国推崇节能减排,寻求低碳经济发展的大环境下,探究不同收入水平下各影响因子与碳排放的关联性有助于区域异质性碳减排政策的制定。根据2002—2016年的经济发展水平数据,将中国30个省及直辖市（不包含西藏及港、澳、台地区）划分为4个不同收入水平,分别建立面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型,并运用面板格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解探究城市化、产业结构、能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间的关联性。研究结果表明,处于不同收入水平下的省份各影响因子与碳排放之间的关系存在异质性。收入水平较高的省份当前城市化水平已产生显著的减排效应,而欠发达地区仍处于城市化进程加速碳排放阶段;4个收入水平下能源消费均会长期影响碳排放,但欠发达地区更加需要摆脱能源依赖的经济发展路径,并且提高能源利用率从而降低碳排放;非高收入水平省份产业结构对碳排放造成的影响明显高于高收入水平省份。此外,实证结果表明,中国仍处于碳排放与经济发展的同步增长阶段,减排政策将会对经济增长产生负向反馈,故现有减排路径的选择需要高度审慎的设计与实施。 相似文献
5.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(3):309-326
Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity — carbon emissions per unit of GDP — has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK’s Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government’s target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience. 相似文献
6.
Economic Impacts of Carbon Charges on U.S. Agriculture 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We evaluate the farm sector impacts that would result from implementing a system of carbon based charges on energy intensive inputs. Our emphasis is on production costs, crop acreage, commodity prices, input use, farm income, and farm welfare. The charges considered – $14, $100, and$200 per metric ton of carbon – were developed from the literature and areconsistent with reducing U.S. GHG emissions to a 1990 minus 7% level by 2010 underdifferent levels of carbon trading and developing country participation. Impacts are relatively modest for a charge of $14 per mt. Relative to baseline conditions, producer and consumer surplus decline 0.02 and 0.03 percent, respectively. Across crop and livestock commodities, price increases and production declines are all less than 1.0%. As the carbon charge increases, farm sector impacts become more pronounced and determination of whether the aggregate effect is significant or not becomes more subjective. 相似文献
7.
Bas van Ruijven Jean-Francois Lamarque Detlef P. van Vuuren Tom Kram Hans Eerens 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):983-994
Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular hydrogen could influence atmospheric chemistry. This paper combines a global energy system model and a global atmospheric model to explore the range of impacts of hydrogen on atmospheric chemistry. We found that emissions of molecular hydrogen may range from 0.2 up to 10% (or 25-167 Tg hydrogen/yr) for a global hydrogen energy system. The lower end of this range would in fact be equal to current emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Hydrogen energy use leads to a clear decrease in emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide, but large-scale hydrogen production from coal may lead to net increase in emissions of nitrous oxide and volatile organic compound. Compared to a reference scenario, this would lead to positive impacts on surface concentrations of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and ozone. However, if hydrogen leakage would not be minimised it leads to an increase in methane lifetimes and a decrease in stratospheric ozone concentrations. 相似文献
8.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):309-326
Abstract Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity—carbon emissions per unit of GDP—has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently. Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics. The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK's Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government's target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience. 相似文献
9.
全球气候变暖已经成为不争的事实,人们逐渐认识到依靠大量能源消费的生产方式、不惜牺牲环境的经济增长模式、无节制大量消费的生活方式应该从根本上得到改变.城市作为工业、建筑、交通的载体,也是高能耗、高碳排放的主要源头,需要改变传统城市发展的模式来应对全球变暖的挑战,发展低碳城市被认为是未来最有希望的经济发展动力.首先采用IPCC能源转换模型对南京市碳排量进行测算,选取南京的人口数量、GDP、人均GDP、人口城市化率、产业结构多元化系数（ESD）、能源消费结构多元化系数（ESCD）和能源强度作为对比数列,以南京CO2排放总量作为参考数列,运用灰色系统关联模型进行关联度计算并排序.结果显示,南京市碳排放量关联度从大到小依次为ESD、人口数量、城市化率、ECSD、能源强度、人均GDP、GDP,这与南京工业生产因化石能源的大量使用对城市碳排放量贡献占总排量一半以上的分析结果相吻合.最后详细分析各指标对南京建设低碳城市的影响,并提出对策建议. 相似文献
10.
Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) could potentially displace fossil fuels and thus mitigate CO2 buildup in the atmosphere. To determine how much fossil fuel SRWC might displace in the United States and what the associated fossil carbon savings might be, a series of assumptions must be made. These assumptions concern the net SRWC biomass yields per hectare (after losses); the amount of suitable land dedicated to SRWC production; wood conversion efficiencies to electricity or liquid fuels; the energy substitution properties of various fuels; and the amount of fossil fuel used in growing, harvesting, transporting, and converting SRWC biomass. Assuming the current climate, present production, and conversion technologies and considering a conservative estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (14 × 106 ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 33.2 to 73.1 × 106 Mg of fossil carbon releases, 3–6% of the current annual U.S. emissions. The carbon mitigation potential per unit of land is larger with the substitution of SRWC for coal-based electricity production than for the substitution of SRWC-derived ethanol for gasoline. Assuming current climate, predicted conversion technology advancements, an optimistic estimate of the U.S. land base available for SRWC (28 × 106 ha), and an optimistic average estimate of net SRWC yields (22.4 dry Mg/ha), we calculate that SRWC energy could displace 148 to 242 × 106 Mg of annual fossil fuel carbon releases. Under this scenario, the carbon mitigation potential of SRWC-based electricity production would be equivalent to about 4.4% of current global fossil fuel emissions and 20% of current U.S. fossil fuel emissions.Research sponsored by the Biofuels Systems Division, U.S. Department of Energy, under contract DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Sciences Division Publication number 3952. 相似文献
11.
以30省域为研究单元,基于能源消耗测算了中国省域2003-2014年交通运输系统的碳排放量,探究了中国省域交通运输系统碳排放的时空分布特征及演变规律。结果表明：中国交通运输系统碳排放量持续快速增长,空间上表现为东高西低,南北方向呈"倒U"型的特征,且区域间相对差异逐渐减小。新疆、青海、甘肃这3省均为冷点地区,热点地区主要分布于东部沿海,历年交通运输系统碳排放重心基本位于河南省南部偏东地区,呈现东北-西南的方向格局,并向正北转变。不同时期交通运输系统碳排放数据变异的随机成分不同,且结构化差异呈减弱态势,而整体空间效应范围不断增大,溢出效应逐渐增强。 相似文献
12.
交通运输行业是温室气体排放的主要来源之一。“双碳”目标对交通领域碳减排工作提出了更高的要求。我国交通运输行业能源消耗统计和温室气体排放测算的统计数据基础较为薄弱,目前国家层面尚未公布统一的交通运输温室气体核算方法,温室气体排放存在底数不清的问题,其核算边界、范围、方法都有待进一步明确。文中通过梳理国内外交通运输领域温室气体核算边界及测算方法,提出了适用于我国交通运输不同子领域温室气体的测算研究思路。并针对我国交通运输温室气体核算工作现存问题,从健全行业能耗与排放核算方法体系、建立交通运输能耗与碳排放数据共享机制、加强交通能耗与碳排放核算方法培训、强化数据质量管理等方面提出相应的政策建议,为我国交通运输行业温室气体排放核算工作的持续开展提供参考。 相似文献
13.
2011年以来,我国碳排放权交易市场建设不断加快,碳排放权交易机制不断健全完善,其中基准线法被确定为全国碳交易初始配额分配的主要方法。电解铝行业是我国能源消耗和碳排放的重点部门,尽早将该行业纳入碳市场对于行业减排、纵深推进全国碳市场交易以及应对国际碳边境调节机制政策均有重要意义。基于2018年电解铝行业直报的碳排放相关数据,确定了我国电解铝行业开展全国碳交易的基准线方案。结果显示,电解铝行业宜选取8.12~8.15 t CO2/t铝作为基准线取值,不需设置区域差异调整系数。同时为保证电解铝行业碳交易的顺利开展,还需尽快确定行业配额方案,进一步完善企业排放量的监测、报告和核查以提高核查填报数据质量,以及进一步研究电解铝行业碳排放核算的范围。 相似文献
14.
Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize
currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological
development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to
go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation
of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting
the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options
including CO2 capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO2 prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future,
initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role
in later years. At higher CO2 prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in
the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and
biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
15.
随着气候变化影响加剧,全球气候治理进程加速,实现碳达峰已经成为全球气候行动的核心,各国也相继制定碳中和目标并开展行动。中国在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上提出了碳达峰碳中和目标,部分已实现碳达峰的发达经济体也提出了各自的碳中和承诺。文中从“整体-阶段”及“焦点-公平”视角分析了欧盟和美国等主要发达经济体碳达峰的历程和特点,以及其碳中和目标和规划。研究发现,发达经济体在碳达峰过程中普遍经历了较长的爬坡期（58~136年）和平台期（4~20年),在碳达峰时,发达经济体的能源结构以油气为主,油气占一次能源消费比重为57%~77%,其人均排放量、历史累计排放以及人均GDP也都处于较高水平,在碳达峰前后总体处于经济与碳排放脱钩状态。各发达经济体的碳中和路径均以能源转型为重点,采用了多元化的政策工具,并且注重低碳和负碳技术的革新。根据发达经济体的政策展望,在实现碳中和时,均难以将绝对排放量降为零,都需要通过碳移除手段进行抵消。通过对比分析,发现中国的碳达峰和碳中和目标是具有雄心的气候承诺,相较其他发达经济体需要付出更大努力。建议运用全面综合的政策工具支撑碳中和目标的有效落实,加快中国的气候立法,在兼顾公正转型的同时推动能源结构调整,注重可再生能源和能效方面的新技术开发应用。 相似文献
16.
Katye E. Altieri Hilton Trollip Tara Caetano Alison Hughes Bruno Merven Harald Winkler 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S78-S91
Achieving the international 2 °C limit climate policy requires stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions might be, and is committed to a ‘peak, plateau and decline' emissions trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving development metrics within a 14 GtCO2e cumulative energy sector carbon constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation. Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment rate decreasing from 25% to 12%, and the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreasing from 49% to 18%. Total energy GHG emissions were reduced by 39% and per capita emissions decreased by 62%.Policy relevanceLower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide information for a holistic climate and development policy framework. This study has focused on the long term, which is important in generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale investments. 相似文献
17.
Public engagement with carbon and climate change: To what extent is the public ‘carbon capable’? 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. In order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. Yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. Proposals for mitigative ‘personal carbon budgets’ imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. However, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. This paper builds on the concept of ‘carbon capability’, a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals’ abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. We present empirical findings from a UK survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. These findings highlight the diverse public understandings about ‘carbon’, encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value-action gap in relation to adoption of low-carbon lifestyles. Implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed. 相似文献
18.
This paper proposes a global warming implementation regime which addresses the issues of equity, flexibility, cost minimization, and population growth. Previously proposed international policy instruments, such as country by country targets, carbon taxes, and tradable permits, face major difficulties as stand alone proposals. The key element of the regime proposed here is to combine annual tradable permits which are allocated based on population in a fixed year with a small carbon tax ($5–10/tonne) on emissions in excess of permits. Both permits and carbon taxes are applied to national level governments, which in turn would use whatever mix of policies desired to reduce national emissions. It is suggested that the initial number of permits correspond to total global emissions in the base year; over time, the number of permits could be reduced and the tax rate increased if improved scientific knowledge so dictates. By allocating permits based on population the equity concerns of developing countries are addressed, while taxing emissions in excess of permit holdings removes the rigidity of a quota system and limits resource transfers by effectively capping the permit trading price, which is a major concern of industrialized countries. To accommodate the difficulties of countries which have not yet achieved the demographic transition, the permit allocation scheme could be subject to a one-time adjustment after 10–15 years based on some weighting of the initial and then-current populations. The proposed scheme is based on the premise that there is a large potential for reducing emissions in developed countries or limiting emission increases in developing countries, and the intention is to create competition between national level governments in implementing cost-effective emission reduction. 相似文献
19.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):577-587
Growing international trade has been one of the most important drivers for China's recent economic growth. This growth has fed rapid increases in energy demand and carbon emissions since 2000. China is now the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide. There is mounting pressure from some in the international community for China to take specific actions to mitigate its emissions as part of a post-2012 climate regime. However, emissions embodied in internationally traded goods have not been given enough attention in this debate. This article discusses the results of research to quantify the emissions stemming from goods that are exported from China to other countries. It finds that these emissions accounted for 23% of China's national total in 2004. The article sets out how this result has been obtained and compares it to the results of several other pieces of research to demonstrate the importance of this issue. Some pointers for international climate policy are then discussed, including the advantages and difficulties of moving to consumption-based emissions accounting, and implications for international trade rules. 相似文献
20.
Determining Effects of Area Burned and Fire Severity on Carbon Cycling and Emissions in Siberia 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Susan G. Conard Anatoly I. Sukhinin Brian J. Stocks Donald R. Cahoon Eduard P. Davidenko Galina A. Ivanova 《Climatic change》2002,55(1-2):197-211
The Russian boreal forest contains about 25% of the global terrestrial biomass, and even a higher percentage of the carbon stored in litter and soils. Fire burns large areas annually, much of it in low-severity surface fires – but data on fire area and impacts or extent of varying fire severity are poor. Changes in land use, cover, and disturbance patterns such as those predicted by global climate change models, have the potential to greatly alter current fire regimes in boreal forests and to significantly impact global carbon budgets. The extent and global importance of fires in the boreal zone have often been greatly underestimated. For the 1998 fire season we estimate from remote sensing data that about 13.3 million ha burned in Siberia. This is about 5 times higher than estimates from the Russian Aerial Forest Protection Service (Avialesookhrana) for the same period. We estimate that fires in the Russian boreal forest in 1998 constituted some 14–20% of average annual global carbon emissions from forest fires. Average annual emissions from boreal zone forests may be equivalent to 23–39% of regional fossil fuel emissions in Canada and Russia, respectively. But the lack of accurate data and models introduces large potential errors into these estimates. Improved monitoring and understanding of the landscape extent and severity of fires and effects of fire on carbon storage, air chemistry, vegetation dynamics and structure, and forest health and productivity are essential to provide inputs into global and regional models of carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry. 相似文献