共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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一个基于耦合气候系统模式的气候预测系统的研制 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于美国通用气候系统模式CCSM4和自行设计的一套初始化方案,建立了一个全球气候预测系统(PCCSM4),并使用该预测系统对夏季气候进行了30年(1981~2010)系统性的超前一个月的集合回报试验.回报结果表明,PCCSM4基本可以把握观测中夏季(JJA)平均海表面温度(SST)、海平面气压(SLP)和降水的主要分布特征;PCCSM4对SST,尤其是赤道中东太平洋关键区SST具有较高的回报能力,30年的相关系数最高可达0.7;PCCSM4对500 hPa位势高度场、850hPa纬向风场和海平面气压场的回报性能高于降水;总的来看,热带地区的可预测性高于全球,更高于东亚地区;PCCSM4对于典型ENSO年的夏季气候和亚洲夏季风的年际变化具有较好的回报能力,经过进一步的检验和完善可以应用于全球和我国短期气候预测业务. 相似文献
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从气候特点、地形特征、生态环境变化等方面,对凉城县50年气象资料进行分析。结果表明:温度呈递增状态,降水呈递减状态,大风逐年呈递减状态。由于气候的变化和人类活动的影响下使生态环境遭到极大的破坏,所以改善生态环境,对凉城县气候的影响起到了积极的作用。 相似文献
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干旱区湖泊沉积物腐殖化度的古气候指示意义—以新疆巴里坤湖为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
腐殖质具有对气候环境变化响应敏感的特点,已经展示出了作为古气候演变研究载体的重要潜力和优势,当前,腐殖化度对气候环境变化指示意义的研究主要应用于泥炭沉积上,而对于湖泊沉积物中腐殖化度气候环境变化的研究,至今尚未见到报道,根据新疆东疆北部巴里坤湖湖泊沉积物腐殖化度的分析,同时结合年代学、有机质含量、总有机碳、自生碳酸盐δ13C、δ18O的分析结果,认为该湖泊沉积物中腐殖化度可以较为敏感地反映气候环境变化的相关消息,较高的腐殖化度,指示气候相对湿润,而较低的腐殖化度值,指示气候相对干燥,在此基础上,结合多指标变化,初步划分了巴里坤湖地区近9.4cal kaBP以来经历了干(9.4-7.5cal kaBP)-湿(7.5-5.8cal kaBP)-干(5.8-3.0 cal kaBP)-湿(3.0-1.0cal kaBP)-干(1.0-Ocal kaBP)五个阶段. 相似文献
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自2009年入冬以来北半球经受了创记录的严寒侵袭,联合国IPCC报告的权威性受到质疑。地球气候变化趋向陷入纷争的境地。从地质学和考古学的视角,以更长的时间周期去认识和了解气候变化规律和成因机制,或许对将来气候的长期预报有所启示。地球在漫长的演化史中经历了以千万年计的＂地质气候旋回＂、千百年计的＂史前气候周期＂及近现代以百年计的＂世纪气候波动＂。不同级次的周期均为内在自然因素所制约,CO2含量在地球演化史中趋于波动下降过程,当代的CO2浓度和气温均处于地质史的低点。人类活动可能在百年尺度内存在对气候和生态环境的影响。自20世纪初开始至今近百年升温趋向中,令人关注的是在中国曾有1941年、1969年、2009~2010年之交极度低温的出现,＂低温节点＂时距约为30~40年,似与海洋存在数十年为变化周期之说相近。由此引发对人为因素导致持续增温的质疑。2009年入冬以来的严寒是否为近百年升温波动周期的终结抑或只是次级的突变因素所致,尚有待观察。但自然因素主导的周期波动规律不可逆转,不能被未经实证而被夸大了的＂人为因素＂所左右。 相似文献
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中国表土花粉与建群植物地理分布的气候指示性对比 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用中国建群植物数字化的地理分布数据与1860个中国表土样品花粉数据和气候插值,定量分析了中国主要花粉含量与植物种类的地理分布和气候指示性．研究结果显示,绝大多数表土花粉含量的气候指示性与建群植物地理分布的气候区间是吻合的,表土花粉与建群植物的气候阈值的重合取决于花粉与气候的正态分布关系．此外,部分花粉种类指示的气候相对于植物存在一定的偏移,如杜鹃花科、菊科、禾本科和藜科等,这与花粉的分类鉴定水平较低和自然植被的人为干扰有关．本研究在较大空间尺度范围内将表土花粉与建群植物的气候指示性进行对比,为全球生态学、第四纪环境和古气候学研究提供了重要的数据和参照． 相似文献
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CHRONOLOGY OF YICHANG GRAVEL LAYER BASED ON QUARTZ TI-LI CENTER ESR DATING AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INCISION TIMING OF THE THREE GORGES VALLEY 
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下载免费PDF全文 WEI Chuan-yi LIU Chun-ru LI Chang-an YIN Gong-ming HAN Fei ZHANG Dai LI Ya-wei ZHANG Yu-fen 《地震地质》1979,42(1):65-78
Uplift of Tibet Plateau and formation of Asian Monsoon greatly affect East Asian geomorphological evolution, climate change and environment systems. Thus, those phenomena also control the origin, size and direction of river systems. The Yangtze River, as the most important linkage between Tibet Plateau and the East Asian marginal seas, delivers large volumes of water, sediment, and associated chemicals from its headwater regions and tributaries to the East China Sea, significantly influencing sedimentary system evolution in its drainage basin. Therefore, the formation of the modern Yangtze River and its geological-time evolution history have been paid more and more attention to since the beginning of the last century. After debated for more than a century, the First Bend in Shigu area and the Three Gorges have been known as the key capture point of the Yangtze River's evolution history. In particularly, the Three Gorges incision period remains greatly controversial, which mainly focuses on Cretaceous period-Neogene period, early Pleistocene period, and late Quaternary period.
The Yichang Gravel, just located downstream and outlet of the Three Gorges with an inverted triangle shape, is mainly distributed in western Jianghan Basin with over 1 000km2. Because of its wide distribution and key geographical location, many typical profiles of Yichang Gravel have been the critical materials for studies on stratigraphic division, geomorphic evolution, and paleoenvironment change in middle Yangtze River Basin, especially on the Three Gorges incision history. Based on the previous field investigation, the Yichang gravel unconformably overlies the Cretaceous bedrocks and underlies the mid-Pleistocene vermicular red earth. In addition, studies on heavy mineral assemblages, Pb isotopic compositions of detrital K-feldspar grains, magnetic characteristics as well as pollen assemblage characteristics have showed that sediments in Yichang Gravel are mainly derived from upper Yangtze River Basin, such as Jinshangjiang drainage, Minjiang drainage, Jialingjiang drainage and Wujiang drainage. Based on the above comprehensive analysis, researchers demonstrated that the depositing time of Yichang Gravel can best constrain the Three Gorges incising time.
The absolute altitude of Yichang Gravel exceeds 110m, and many thick sand lens are developed from top to bottom of the profiles. In this study, we applied the quartz Ti-Li center ESR dating method in Yichang Gravel to determine its absolute formation age, and then to constrain the minimum cutting-through time of Three Gorges. Eight samples(SXY-1, SXY-2, YC-1-4, LJY-1, LJY-2)were collected from the sand lens at depths of 4m, 19m, 40m, 51m, 63m, 75m, 83m and 99m respectively from the top of the profile. At the same time, in order to evaluate the residual dose of Ti-Li center after sunlight bleaching, we also sampled four modern surface Yangtze River sediments near Yichang Gravel for ESR measurement.
The result shows that the quartz Ti-Li center ESR signal intensity of the 4 modern fluvial sediments samples are zero, which implies that the Ti-Li center ESR signal intensity of quartz in Yichang Gravel sand lens could be bleached to zero before the last burial. Thus, the above results indicate that the ESR dating results of this paper are reliable. The ESR absolute age from top to bottom of the profile is 0.73Ma BP,0.87Ma BP,0.98Ma BP,1.04Ma BP,1.05Ma BP,1.10Ma BP, 1.11Ma BP, 1.12Ma BP, respectively. The ESR dating results show that the Yichang Gravel began to deposit at about 1. 12Ma BP until 0. 73Ma BP, and the Ti-Li center ESR age indicates that the Yangtze River cut through Three Gorges area no later than 1.12Ma BP. 相似文献
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三峡大坝运行前后西洞庭湖鱼类群落结构特征变化 总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1
鱼类是湿地生态系统中重要的组成部分,鱼类的群落结构动态直接反映湿地生境及外部驱动力的变化.三峡大坝运行后,长江中游江湖水文情势发生了变化,西洞庭湖地处洞庭湖西部,是受此变化影响最为直接的区域之一.为监测西洞庭湖鱼类群落结构变化特征,分析其变化原因,于2002年9月-2003年8月和2012年7月-2014年1月,在西洞庭湖进行了两次鱼类群落调查.共鉴定到鱼类7目17科91种,其中鲤形目最多,为58种,占总种数的63.7%.两次调查结果显示,三峡大坝运行后西洞庭湖鱼类物种数由85种下降到66种,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数和Pielou均匀度指数分别由5.00和1.11下降为4.14和1.00,鱼类个体小型化趋势明显.两次调查物种数和个体数量最多的类群均为底层、定居性、杂食性鱼类,且其比例有增加的趋势,而肉食性鱼类、中上层鱼类、半洄游性鱼类和产粘性卵、沉性卵鱼类个体数量占比均有减小的趋势,其中中上层鱼类变化有显著性差异.三峡大坝运行后10年间,西洞庭湖鱼类多样性呈现下降趋势.研究表明,西洞庭湖鱼类生境丧失、捕捞胁迫,加剧了一些特定类群的生存压力,并反映于鱼类群落结构的变化. 相似文献
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三峡工程对坝下长江流量影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据长江水情的具体特点,采用Ｐｒｅｉｓｍａｎｎ隐式格式,建立了一个描述长江情的水动力学数值模式。以最佳拟合历史水文资料,重演历史水文过程为原则,率定数值模式中的各参数;并运行率定后的模式,进行三峡工程对坝下长江若干断面处流量影响的模拟预测。 相似文献
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自三峡工程论证以来,其建设和运行可能引发的问题成为相关领域研究的热点.2003年6月,三峡水库开始一期蓄水.检索发现,2002年之前有关三峡的研究绝大部分集中于移民和工程建设风险等方面,与水环境相关的论文数量不足5%,相对较少.因此,本文重点对2002-2017年期间,在SCI-E/SSCI上刊发的520篇研究型英文论文和在中国核心期刊上刊发的777篇中文论文进行计量分析.结果表明:关于三峡水库水环境的研究论文数量整体呈逐年递增趋势,中国在三峡水库水环境研究中占据主导地位;ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH和《环境科学》分别是刊发英文论文和中文论文最多的期刊;中国科学院、重庆大学和三峡大学是三峡水库水环境研究最活跃的机构;"消落带"、"水华"、"浮游植物"、"营养盐"和"水温分层"等方面是三峡水库水环境近几年研究的热点.分析关键词还发现,来自不同学科背景的学者关注的兴趣点和重点不同.一方面,这有利于更全面的研究和多学科之间的碰撞交流;另一方面,即使是表达同一事实,由于学科差异而采用了不同的学术术语和关键词,又妨碍了学科之间的顺畅交流.因此,从科学凝炼不同类型水域共性问题和整合及运用多尺度、多维度的研究手段两个方面着手,不仅可以深度融合不同学科的理论和学术思想,还能深化三峡水环境的研究并提升我国在水库环境生态学研究领域的国际影响力. 相似文献
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In this paper the researches made in 1981-1990 have identified that the annual soil loss in the Three Gorges region is 157 million t. and the annual incoming sediment load of the Three Gorges reservoir is 40 million t. Soil erosion increases with the destruction of vegetative cover and its subsequent evolution. The annual amounts of sediment erosion for forest land, shrub land, grassland and farmland make up respectively 6.19%, 10.76%, 23.05% and 60% of the total erosion of the Three Gorges region; the quantities of incoming sediment load to the Yangtze River from the above four types of land account for 5.95%, 12.42%, 35.46% and 46.1 % of the total amount of sediment transported to the reservoir. The farmland of offers the main source of sediment. Gravitational erosion produces more bed loads, which will present serious threat to the Three Gorges Project if entering the reservoir. Resettlement of people to the upper parts of the mountainous areas for agricultural production will increase the sediment yield of the Three Gorges region by 10-20 million t and increase the incoming sediment of the Yangtze River by 50-60 million t. Consequently, it is necessary to make a realistic assessment of the soil erosion in the Three Gorges region. 相似文献
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《国际泥沙研究》2015,(3)
In this article,the shrinking of Dongting Lake and its progressively weakening connection with the Yangtze River and their impact on flooding before and after the implementation of the Three Gorges Project are analyzed.In recent decades,human activity combined with natural processes has altered the flow of the middle reach channel of the Yangtze River and interfered with its connection with Dongting Lake.This has resulted in progressively more frequent flooding in the area.This study uses hydrological data to analyze the annual maximum discharge and annual maximum stage development of the middle reach of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake.In recent decades before the Three Gorges Project became operational in 2003,the annual maximum discharge and the maximum stage recorded in the middle reach of the river downstream of Dongting Lake had increased,a result of the weakening of the flood regulation function of Dongting Lake;the annual maximum stage at Luoshan station(downstream,close to the confluence of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake) had risen by about 2.0 m during 1955-2005,(1.5 m attributed to annual maximum discharge and 0.5 m to river channel deposition).Observational data recorded after the Three Gorges Project was put into operation in 2003,it can be seen that deposition in the Dongting Lake has nearly ceased and the lake's connection with the Yangtze River is stable.It is evident that the flood regulation function of Dongting Lake will continue,and that during the lifetime of the Three Gorges Project,the flood situation in the middle reach of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake will remain stable. 相似文献
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XuejunSHAO HongWANG ZhaoyinWANG 《国际泥沙研究》2005,20(2):102-108
Sediment supply to the lower Jingjiang River will be subject to substantial reduction after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, which could result in an excess of carrying capacity and serious bank erosions in the downstream alluvial channel, threatening the bank protection works and the safety of the Jingjiang Dyke. This paper presents a summary of research works concerning the fluvial processes in the lower Jingjiang River and the possible impact of the Three Gorges Reservoir impoundment on the variation of its channel pattern. Three different predictions have been put forward by researchers: 1) the Jingjiang River will evolve towards a more sinuous, meandering channel pattern, with extensive bank erosion taking place along the river; 2) the river channel will be straightened and broadened because no point bar can be formed due to reduced sediment supply while bank erosion develops in the concave bank, and 3) this river reach will maintain its present channel pattern without significant change, although the sinuosity may be slightly reduced, since: a) the Three Gorges Reservoir mainly intercept sediment particles with sizes larger than 0.025mm, and b) the complex interaction between the Yangtze River and the Dongting Lake helps to reduce the negative effect of channel erosion through certain self-adjusting mechanism in fluvial processes. Discrepancy between these predictions shows that further research efforts are needed to understand the impact of Three Gorges Reservoir operation on the downstream fluvial processes. Meanwhile, there is an urgent need to closely monitor future development in the fluvial processes of the Jingjiang River and its influence on the safety of the Jingjiang Dykes. 相似文献
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一、前言长江三峡蕴藏着极其丰富的水利资源,为我国当前最大的水利电力枢纽工程所在地。这里地震工作开展较早,本世纪二十年代以来,中外地学界曾在此进行了多方面考察。新中国成立后,在着手规划开发长江水利资源的初期,己布设了三峡地震台网,同时开展了地震地质调查和地形变观测工作。笔者在峡区周围曾参加过多次地震考察,发现黄陵背斜东西两侧地震时,在远离震中的钟祥和荆门地区出现等震线单独封闭的独立烈度异常区。在等震线分布 相似文献
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APPARENT STRESS VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE AND AFTER BADONG EARTHQUAKE IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 DAI Miao WU Gui-ju LIU Jian SHEN Chong-yang SHEN Xue-lin SHEN Xue-lin WEI Gui-chun 《地震地质》2017,39(4):837-852
The causes of earthquakes in the Three Gorges reservoir area are complex. In order to study the cause of earthquakes happening in the region, we calculated the source parameters of 394 ML ≥ 2.0 earthquakes occurring in Three Gorges reservoir area based on waveform data observed by the regional seismic network of Hubei Province and Three Gorges, obtained the apparent stress spatial-temporal variation map of Three Gorges reservoir area, and analyzed apparent stress spatial-temporal variation characteristics before and after the main earthquakes in the Three Gorges reservoir area. The results show that:1)Before the Badong ML5.5, Zigui ML4.7 and Zigui ML5.1 earthquake, high apparent stress of earthquakes with different magnitudes is concentrated in Xinhua-Shuitianba Fault and Gaoqiao Fault. The distribution of high value area shows the high degree of synergism before the earthquake and the scattering after the earthquake, which indicates that the area accumulated a high stress before the earthquake, and the fault was in a locked state; 2)In the study area, the apparent stress before and after the earthquake showed significant rise in the first and then decline, the earthquake occurred in the process of rising; 3)Apparent stress depth profiles show that apparent stress at different depths has a positive correlation with the size of magnitude of earthquake, and the phenomenon of "small magnitude and strong apparent stress" did not appear. The small earthquakes occurring after the major earthquakes in the study area belong to low strain release under the background of low stress release, and there are no new apparent stress anomaly concentration areas appearing, this indicates that the Badong-Gaoqiao Fault, Zhoujiashan-Niukou Fault and Zigui Xiannushan Fault have been effective in releasing after the Badong earthquake and Zigui earthquakes and the probability of destructive earthquake is small on these faults. 相似文献