共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 689 毫秒
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通过对国外各类海气耦合模式及其预报试验的综合分析，从海气耦合模式的分类、模式气候漂移和ENSO年际变化的处理、模式分辨率、耦合方式和模式参数的变化对模式年际变化的影响、ENSO年际预报与预报起始时间和资料的关系、ENSO和季风的海陆气耦合系统等方面评述了影响季和年际数值预报水平的有关问题及发展现状，并对开展我国相应试验研究工作提出了看法。 相似文献
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用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果, 分析了模式大气的年际变化性; 用1979~1994年间的“回报”个例, 探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明:模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征; 对预报而言, 模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区, 全球热带大气具有较稳定的1年左右的可预报时效; 基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水), 超前时间可达9个月至1年。 相似文献
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利用混合海气耦合模式45年模拟积分的结果,对模式大气的年际变化性进行了分析。结果表明,在这样的海气耦合系统中,大气分量表现出显著的年际变化,冬、夏季异常环流型的分布与观测资料的分析结果基本相符。因此,该模式不仅能较好地再现热带太平洋的ENSO变化性,而且能较好地再现ENSO引起的全球大气环流的年际变化性。 相似文献
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利用中等复杂程度的2.5层海洋模式和大气环流模式ECHAM4组成的海气耦合模式,模拟分析了热带太平洋和印度洋的气候变化以及年际变化特征。该模式较好地模拟了ENSO现象的空间分布及其不规则的周期变化特征,以及热带印度洋的主要变化特征。通过数值试验,初步研究了太平洋耦合过程对印度洋年际变化的影响。结果显示,当存在太平洋耦合过程时,模拟的印度洋偶极子(IOD)正(负)事件的发生频率比无太平洋耦合情形时有所减少(增加)。该变化是太平洋耦合变量通过海气耦合过程对印度洋海表面平均风场进行调整,进而引起热带印度洋温跃层深度东西梯度改变的结果。 相似文献
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对改进初始强迫风场后的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报性能进行了全面评估。结果表明：1）耦合模式在20世纪90年代预报能力小于80年代；提前0～5个月的耦合模式预报能力小于同期持续预报能力，之后则相反；耦合模式对Nino3区指数预报能力最强。2）在1997／1998年El Nino事件期间，耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力大于其对中西太平洋SSTA场的预报能力，且提前0～2个月之后的耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力远远大于持续预报。 相似文献
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全球热带简单海气耦合模式中的ENSO预报试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用一个全球热带简单海气耦合模式(GTSM模式),并选取热带三大洋较强的冷暖事件作为预报对象进行了若干预报试验,分析结果发现:在GTSM模式中由于热带三大洋海气耦合通过大气模式而相互作用和影响,使得该模式对于东大西洋和中东印度洋较强冷暖事件的预报能力,较单独大西洋或单独印度洋耦合模式均有明显提高,预报和观测的ATL3、IND3指数的相关系数达到0.5以上的月份,分别达到9个月和6个月左右;而在东太平洋则和ZC(LDEO1)模式差不多,预报和观测的Nio3指数的相关系数达到0.6以上的月份可以达到15个月左右. 相似文献
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区域海气耦合模式是研究局地海气相互作用过程影响气候变率的重要平台,也是对全球气候模式进行"动力降尺度"的重要工具.本文介绍了LASG(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics)/IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics)发展的区域海气耦合模式FROALS(Flexible Regional Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model),并总结了过去五年围绕该区域海气耦合模式开展的研究工 作.FROALS的特点之一是有两个完全不同的大气模式分量和海洋模式分量选项,可以适应不同的模拟研究需 求.针对区域海气耦合模式在西北太平洋地区的模拟偏差,通过分步骤考察不同大气模式分量和不同海洋模式分量对模式模拟性能的影响,指出大气模式是导致区域海气耦合偏差的主要分量.通过改进对流触发的相对湿度阈值标准,有效地改善了此前区域海气耦合模式在亚洲季风区普遍出现的"模拟海温冷偏差".改进的FROALS对西北太平洋地区的大气和海洋环境有较好的模拟能力,合理地再现了西北太平洋地区表层洋流气候态和年际变率.较之非耦合模式,考虑区域海气耦合过程后,改进了东亚和南亚地区的降水和热带气旋潜势年际变率的模拟.最后,针对东亚—西北太平洋地区,利用FROALS对IAP/LASG全球气候模式模拟和预估的结果进行了动力降尺 度,得到了东亚区域50 km高分辨率区域气候变化信息.分析显示,FROALS模拟得到的东亚区域气候较之全球气候模式和非耦合区域气候模式结果具有明显的"增值",显示出区域海气耦合模式在该区域良好的应用前景. 相似文献
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基于通量距平的大气—海洋—海冰耦合模式 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
该文是基于月平均通量距平（ＭＦＡ）的海报耦合方案及其在４个海气耦合的环流模式中应用情况的一个综合评述，这些模式的实施情况表明，由于采用精细化了参考通量，修正的ＭＦＡ（ＭＭＦＡ）比它的原型具有为稳定的控制气候漂移的能力。 相似文献
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LIN Wan-Tao 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(1):1-6
In this paper,the influence of the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on the sensitivity of nonlinear factors in the numerical simulation is investigated by conducting numerical experiments in a simple air-sea coupled model for ENSO prediction.Two sets of experiments are conducted in which zonal nonlinear factors,meridional nonlinear factors,or both are incorporated into the governing equations for the atmosphere or ocean.The results suggest that the ENSO cycle is very sensitive to the nonlinear factor of the governing equation for the atmosphere or ocean.Thus,incorporating nonlinearity into air-sea coupled models is of exclusive importance for improving ENSO simulation. 相似文献
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Hong-Li Ren Fei Zheng Jing-Jia Luo Run Wang Minghong Liu Wenjun Zhang Tianjun Zhou Guangqing Zhou 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2020,34(1):43-62
Remarkable progress has been made in observations, theories, and simulations of the ocean-atmosphere system, laying a solid foundation for the improvement of short-term climate prediction, among which Chinese scientists have made important contributions. This paper reviews Chinese research on tropical air-sea interaction, ENSO dynamics, and ENSO prediction in the past 70 years. Review of the tropical air-sea interaction mainly focuses on four aspects: characteristics of the tropical Pacific climate system and ENSO; main modes of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and their interactions with the tropical Pacific; main modes of tropical Atlantic SSTs and inter-basin interactions; and influences of the mid-high-latitude air-sea system on ENSO. Review of the ENSO dynamics involves seven aspects: fundamental theories of ENSO; diagnosis and simulation of ENSO; the two types of ENSO; mechanisms of ENSO initiation; the interactions between ENSO and other phenomena; external forcings and teleconnections; and climate change and the ENSO response. The ENSO prediction part briefly summarizes the dynamical-statistical methods used in ENSO prediction, as well as the operational ENSO prediction systems and their applications. Lastly, we discuss some of the issues in these areas that are in need of further study. 相似文献
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国际上针对海洋-大气系统的观测、理论和模拟方面已经开展了广泛而深入的研究,为短期气候预测水平的不断提升奠定了坚实基础,这其中中国学者做出了许多重要贡献。文中简要回顾了中国学者70年来在热带海-气相互作用与ENSO动力学及预测方面的研究进展。其中,热带海-气相互作用部分主要涉及4个方面的内容:热带太平洋气候特征与ENSO现象、热带印度洋海温主要模态及其与太平洋相互作用、热带大西洋海温主要模态及与海盆的相互作用、中高纬度海-气系统对ENSO的影响;ENSO动力学包括7个方面的内容:基本理论的相关研究、ENSO相关的诊断与模拟研究、两类ENSO相关研究、ENSO触发机制相关研究、ENSO与其他现象的相互作用、外部强迫与大气遥相关、气候变化与ENSO响应;ENSO预测主要包括2个方面的内容:动力-统计ENSO预测方法、ENSO预测系统与应用。最后,还讨论了上述相关方面亟待解决的问题。 相似文献
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Sébastien Masson Pascal Terray Gurvan Madec Jing-Jia Luo Toshio Yamagata Keiko Takahashi 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(3-4):681-707
This paper explores the impact of intra-daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability on the tropical large-scale climate variability and differentiates it from the response of the system to the forcing of the solar diurnal cycle. Our methodology is based on a set of numerical experiments based on a fully global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation in which we alter (1) the frequency at which the atmosphere sees the SST variations and (2) the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle. Our results highlight the complexity of the scale interactions existing between the intra-daily and inter-annual variability of the tropical climate system. Neglecting the SST intra-daily variability results, in our CGCM, to a systematic decrease of 15% of El Ni?o—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude. Furthermore, ENSO frequency and skewness are also significantly modified and are in better agreement with observations when SST intra-daily variability is directly taken into account in the coupling interface of our CGCM. These significant modifications of the SST interannual variability are not associated with any remarkable changes in the mean state or the seasonal variability. They can therefore not be explained by a rectification of the mean state as usually advocated in recent studies focusing on the diurnal cycle and its impact. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SST high frequency coupling is systematically associated with a strengthening of the air-sea feedbacks involved in ENSO physics: SST/sea level pressure (or Bjerknes) feedback, zonal wind/heat content (or Wyrtki) feedback, but also negative surface heat flux feedbacks. In our model, nearly all these results (excepted for SST skewness) are independent of the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle suggesting that the systematic deterioration of the air-sea coupling by a daily exchange of SST information is cascading toward the major mode of tropical variability, i.e. ENSO. 相似文献
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四个耦合模式ENSO后报试验的“春季预报障碍” 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
用CliPAS计划中3个气候模式和中国科学院大气物理研究所耦合模式FGOALS-g短期气候异常回报试验结果,将动力和统计方法相结合,考察了1982—2003年厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件发展期和衰减期海表温度春季可预报性障碍现象。结果表明,所考察的耦合模式对ENSO事件预报的误差发展存在明显的季节依赖性,最大误差增长通常发生在春季,发生显著的可预报性障碍现象。进一步分析发现厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜事件在发展期的季节预报障碍现象比衰减期明显,以厄尔尼诺事件发展期春季可预报性障碍现象最为显著,拉尼娜事件衰减期季节预报障碍现象不显著。研究还发现,预报误差的增长在ENSO事件冷暖位相具有显著的非对称性,发展期暖位相预报误差强于冷位相,而衰减期冷位相的预报误差比暖位相大。通过回归分析,诊断了海-气相互作用的强度,发现耦合系统在春季最不稳定,使预报误差最易在春季发展,从而导致可预报性障碍。 相似文献
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Improvement of seasonal forecasts with inclusion of tropical instability waves on initial conditions 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Positive impacts of tropical instability waves (TIWs) in initial conditions on seasonal forecasts are investigated using a air-sea coupled GCM. Due to coarse observational networks and deficiencies in widely-used initialization methods (e.g. 3DVAR or OI methods), TIW variability in oceanic initial conditions is excessively suppressed. It ruins the interaction between TIWs and climate states, therefore, degrades the climate forecast skills. To settle this problem, TIW patterns obtained from free integration is added to the spatially-smoothed initial conditions to simulate realistic seasonal TIW variability (TIWV). Through 20-year ensemble forecast experiments, it is shown that seasonal TIWV with TIWs-seeded initial conditions is significantly stronger until 2-month lead time. In addition, enhanced TIWV amplifies nonlinear relationship between TIWs and ENSO, which leads realistic simulation of the El Ni?o-La Ni?a asymmetry. As a result of better ENSO simulation, correlation improvement of simulated NINO3 index with TIWs-seeded initial conditions is over 0.1 at 4-month lead time. 相似文献
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Advances in research of ENSO changes and the associated impacts on Asian-Pacific climate 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
This review provides a summary on the recent major advances in research of ENSO changes and the associated impacts on Asian-Pacific climate. Achievements in the following topics are summarized: 1) the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña; 2) the different features of central Pacific (CP) El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño; 3) the change of ENSO in a warming world, including analysis of pre-industrial control simulation, historical simulation and climate projections of coupled climate system model; 4) Impact of EP ENSO on warm-pool air-sea interaction and East Asianwestern North Pacific summer monsoon; 5) Impacts of CP ENSO on Asian-Pacific climate, with focus on East Asian seasonal precipitation and tropical cyclones in the western Pacific. Research results published in the recent 5 years are the major sources for this review. Based on the review of the current progresses, some challenging issues needed to be investigated in the future are highlighted. 相似文献
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热带太平洋线性海气耦合系统的主模与ENSO 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文利用包含海洋表面边界层、线性海洋大气动力学以及完整的关于不均匀气候态线性化SST预报方程的热带太平洋海气耦合模式， 在真实的气候背景态和参数域内，研究了海气耦合系统的特征值问题，确定了线性耦合系统主模的特征周期及其稳定性特征，进而揭示了主模和ENSO的关系。结果表明:准两年振荡是线性海气耦合系统中的最不稳定模态，且只有该模态类似于ENSO水平结构。因此，准两年振荡很可能是海气耦合系统固有的最根本性的振荡过程。本文也对准两年振荡的形成与年循环的关系以及它在ENSO时间尺度形成中的作用进行了讨论。 相似文献
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Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced. 相似文献