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1.
Cross-correlation and cross-spectral analysis were employed in the analysis of rainfall and runoff in two river basins: the Raritan and Mullica River basins in New Jersey. Cross-covariance and coherence were studied in the correlograms for the following correlation cases: (a) rainfall-runoff for each one basin separately; (b) rainfall-rainfall analysis for two main meteorological stations in each one of the basins; (c) runoff-runoff for two main gaging stations in each one of the basins. From the estimates of the coherence at various frequencies the cross-spectral analysis shows a highly nonlinear relationship between rainfall and runoff in Raritan and Mullica River basins. A poor coherence observed at the annual cycles for each basin makes it difficult to predict the annual oscillations of runoff from those of rain-fall by a linear regression model. The high coherence between rainfall (or runoff) at the first station and rainfall (or runoff) at the second station within the same basin at almost all frequencies establishes an accurate prediction on a linear basis. 相似文献
2.
《Advances in water resources》2005,28(6):567-581
Identifying channel initiation points is central to geomorphology and hydrology as they relate morphology, climate, and soil properties at the boundary between different surface runoff paths. Since catchment response is strongly influenced by the dynamics of water movement on the hillslope and in the channel, rainfall-runoff modeling is one of the fields in which improving the identification of channel initiation can lead to benefits. Among the various filtering criteria that can be found in the literature for channel recognition from digital elevation models, the one using contributing area and topographic slope shows interesting features in this context. Nevertheless, the area-slope criterion has been poorly applied. This is mainly due to the difficulties in objectively defining appropriate threshold values. This study proposes a new procedure to assess the area-slope threshold value. The resulting channel network is then used as input to a semi-distributed, event-based rainfall-runoff model able to describe severe rainfall events in small, steep basins. This model accounts for network and hillslope contributions to the total dispersion in the routing process, a key factor in determining the main features of the hydrologic response. In a geomorphologically homogeneous region, the set of model parameters shows interesting invariance properties with respect to storm and basin characteristics. 相似文献
3.
Abstract The Hydrological Recursive Model (HRM), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was applied for local and regional simulation of hourly discharges in the transnational Alzette River basin (Luxembourg-France-Belgium). The model was calibrated for a range of various sub-basins with a view to analysing its ability to reproduce the variability of basin responses during flood generation. The regionalization of the model parameters was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series of calibration sub-basins after their spatial discretization in lithological contrasting isochronal zones. The runoff simulations of the model agreed well with the recorded runoff series. Significant correlations with some basin characteristics and, noticeably, the permeability of geological formations, could be found for two of the four free model parameters. The goodness of fit for runoff predictions using the derived regional parameter set was generally satisfactory, particularly for the statistical characteristics of streamflow. A more physically-based modelling approach, or at least an explicit treatment of quick surface runoff, is expected to give better results for high peak discharge. 相似文献
4.
This research develops a one-parameter model of saturated source area dynamics and the spatial distribution of soil moisture. The single required parameter is the maximum soil moisture deficit within the catchment. The concept behind the development of the model comes from the fact that the complexity of topographically-driven runoff generation can be reduced through the use of geomorphological scaling relations. The scaling formulation allows the prediction of the dynamics of saturated source areas as a function of basin-wide soil moisture state. This model offers a number of potential advantages. Firstly, the model parameter is independent of topographic index distribution and its associated scale effects. Secondly, it may be possible to measure this single parameter using field measurements or perhaps remote sensing, which gives the model significant potential for application in ungauged basins. Finally, the fact that this parameter is a physical characteristic of the basin, estimation of this parameter avoids regionalization and parameter transferability problems. The model is tested using rainfall–runoff data from the 10.4 ha experimental catchment known as Tarrawara in Australia, the 37 km2 Town Creek catchment in U.S.A., and the 620 km2 Balaphi and the 850 km2 Likhu sub-catchments of the Koshi river in Nepal. In sub-catchments of Koshi river, the simulation results compare favorably against the calibrated TOPMODEL both in terms of direct runoff and the spatial distribution of soil moisture state. In the Tarrawara and Town Brook catchments, simulation results compare favorably against observed storm runoff using all observed data, without calibration. 相似文献
5.
Influence of rainfall spatial variability on flood prediction 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
Patrick Arnaud Christophe Bouvier Leonardo Cisneros Ramon Dominguez 《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):216-230
This paper deals with the sensitivity of distributed hydrological models to different patterns that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall: spatially averaged rainfall or rainfall field. The rainfall data come from a dense network of recording rain gauges that cover approximately 2000 km2 around Mexico City. The reference rain sample accounts for the 50 most significant events, whose mean duration is about 10 h and maximal point depth 170 mm. Three models were tested using different runoff production models: storm-runoff coefficient, complete or partial interception. These models were then applied to four fictitious homogeneous basins, whose sizes range from 20 to 1500 km2. For each test, the sensitivity of the model is expressed as the relative differences between the empirical distribution of the peak flows (and runoff volumes), calculated according to the two patterns of rainfall input: uniform or non-uniform. Differences in flows range from 10 to 80%, depending on the type of runoff production model used, the size of the basin and the return period of the event. The differences are generally moderate for extreme events. In the local context, this means that uniform design rainfall combining point rainfall distribution and the probabilistic concept of the areal reduction factor could be sufficient to estimate major flood probability. Differences are more significant for more frequent events. This can generate problems in calibrating the hydrological model when spatial rainfall localization is not taken into account: a bias in the estimation of parameters makes their physical interpretation difficult and leads to overestimation of extreme flows. 相似文献
6.
In this study, a dynamic flood‐frequency analysis model considering the storm coverage effect is proposed and applied to six sub‐basins in the Pyungchang River basin, Korea. The model proposed is composed of the rectangular pulse Poisson process model for rainfall, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method for infiltration and the geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph for runoff estimation. Also, the model developed by Marco and Valdes is adopted for quantifying the storm‐coverage characteristics. By comparing the results from the same model with and without the storm‐coverage effect consideration, we could quantify the storm‐coverage effect on the flood‐frequency analysis. As a result of that, we found the storm‐coverage effect was so significant that overestimation of the design flood was unavoidable without its consideration. This also becomes more serious for larger basins where the probability of complete storm coverage is quite low. However, for smaller basins, the limited number of rain gauges is found to hamper the proper quantification of the storm‐coverage characteristics. Provided with a relationship curve between the basin size and the storm coverage (as in this study), this problem could be overcome with an acceptable accuracy level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
8.
Linear and nonlinear input/output models for karstic springflow and flood prediction at different time scales 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
D. Labat R. Ababou A. Mangin 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(5):337-364
Karstic formations function as three-dimensional (3D) hydrological basins, with both surface and subsurface flows through
fissures, natural conduits, underground streams and reservoirs. The main characteristic of karstic formations is their significant
3D physical heterogeneity at all scales, from fine fissuration to large holes and conduits. This leads to dynamic and temporal
variability, e.g. highly variable flow rates, due to several concurrent flow regimes with several distinct response times.
The temporal hydrologic response of karstic basins is studied here from an input/output, systems analysis viewpoint. The hydraulic
behaviour of the basins is approached via the relationship between hydrometeorological inputs and outputs. These processes
are represented and modeled as random, self-correlated and cross-correlated, stationary time processes. More precisely, for
each site-specific case presented here, the input process is the total rainfall on the basin and the output process is the
discharge rate at the outlet of the basin (karstic spring). In the absence of other data, these time processes embody all
the available information concerning a given karstic basin.
In this paper, we first present a brief discussion of the physical structure of karstic systems. Then, we formulate linear
and nonlinear models, i.e. functional relations between rainfall and runoff, and methods for identifying the kernel and coefficients
of the functionals (deterministic vs. statistical; error minimisation vs. polynomial projection). These are based mostly on Volterra first order (linear) or second order (nonlinear) convolution.
In addition, a new nonlinear threshold model is developed, based on the frequency distribution of interannual mean daily runoff.
Finally, the different models and identification methods are applied to two karstic watersheds in the french Pyrénées mountains,
using long sequences of rainfall and spring outflow data at two different sampling rates (daily and semi-hourly). The accuracy
of nonlinear and linear rainfall-runoff models is tested at three time scales: long interannual scale (20 years of daily data),
medium or seasonal scale (3 months of semi-hourly data), and short scale or “flood scale” (2 days of semi-hourly data). The
model predictions are analysed in terms of global statistical accuracy and in terms of accuracy with respect to high flow
events (floods). 相似文献
9.
Fei Liu Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh Xianfang Song Yu-Li Wang Jet-Chau Wen Yonghong Hao Wenke Wang 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14299
Accurate characterization of heterogeneity in groundwater basins is crucial to the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study explores the temporal sampling issues and the role of flux measurements in the characterization of heterogeneity in groundwater basins using numerical experiments. The experiments involve a digital basin imitating the groundwater basin of the North China Plain (NCP), where the groundwater exploitation reduction program is ongoing. Using the experiments, we champion that the reduction program could collect groundwater level information induced by operational variations of existing pumping wells at different locations in the basin. Such a dataset could serve as a basin-scale hydraulic tomography (HT) to characterize the basin-scale heterogeneity cost-effectively. Both steady-state and transient-state inversion experiments demonstrate the advantage of HT surveys in characterizing basin-scale heterogeneity over conventional pumping tests at fixed well locations. Additionally, head data at the early, intermediate, and late time from well hydrographs should be selected for the HT analysis to maximize HT's power and save computational costs. When accurate geological zones are incorporated in prior information, flux measurements significantly improve parameter estimates based on conventional pumping tests. However, their effects are less noticeable for long-term HT surveys in such basin-scale aquifers without fissures or fractures. This basin-scale tomographic survey example serves a guide for field data collection and optimization of the analysis of future basin-scale HT. 相似文献
10.
In this paper a very general rainfall-runoff model structure (described below) is shown to reduce to a unit hydrograph model structure. For the general model, a multi-linear unit hydrograph approach is used to develop subarea runoff, and is coupled to a multi-linear channel flow routing method to develop a link-node rainfall-runoff model network. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the catchment is probabilistically related to a known rainfall data source located in the catchment in order to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall with respect to the rain gauge measured data. The resulting link node model structure is a series of stochastic integral equations, one equation for each subarea. A cumulative stochastic integral equation is developed as a sum of the above series, and includes the complete spatial and temporal variabilities of the rainfall over the catchment. The resulting stochastic integral equation is seen to be an extension of the well-known single area unit hydrograph method, except that the model output of a runoff hydrograph is a distribution of outcomes (or realizations) when applied to problems involving prediction of storm runoff; that is, the model output is a set of probable runoff hydrographs, each outcome being the results of calibration to a known storm event. 相似文献
11.
Jun Inaoka Ken'ichirou Kosugi Naoya Masaoka Tetsushi Itokazu Kimihito Nakamura 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5567-5579
Clarifying rainfall-runoff responses in mountainous areas is essential for disaster prediction as well as water resource management. Although runoff is considered to be significantly affected by topography, some previous studies have reported that geological structures also have significant effects on rainfall-runoff characteristics. Particularly in headwater catchments located in sedimentary rock mountains, dips and strikes may significantly affect rainwater discharge. In this study, the effects of geological structures on rainfall-runoff characteristics were investigated based on observed discharge hydrographs from 12 catchments, which lie radially from the summit of a sedimentary rock mountain. The results obtained were as follows: (1) Even though the topographic wetness index (TWI) distributions of the 12 catchments were similar, there were significant differences in their runoff characteristics; (2) Catchments with average flow direction oriented towards the strike direction (strike-oriented catchments) are characterized by large baseflows; (3) Catchments with average flow direction oriented towards the opposite dip direction (opposite dip-oriented catchments) are steep, and this results in quick storm runoff generation; (4) Catchments with average flow direction oriented toward the dip direction (dip-oriented catchments) are gentle, and this results in delayed storm runoff generation. It was presumed that in strike-oriented catchments, large quantities of groundwater flowing along the bedding planes owing to hydraulic anisotropy, exfiltrate and sustain the large amount of the observed baseflow, that is, in strike-oriented catchments, runoff is directly controlled by geological structures. Conversely, in opposite dip-oriented and dip-oriented catchments, runoff is indirectly controlled by geological structures, that is, geological structures affect slope gradients, which result in differences in storm runoff generation. Thus, this study clearly illustrates that geological structures significantly affect rainfall-runoff responses in headwater catchments located in sedimentary rock mountains. 相似文献
12.
T. V. Hromodka II R. J. Whitley 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(4):259-268
In this paper a very general rainfall-runoff model structure (described below) is shown to reduce to a unit hydrograph model structure. For the general model, a multi-linear unit hydrograph approach is used to develop subarea runoff, and is coupled to a multi-linear channel flow routing method to develop a link-node rainfall-runoff model network. The spatial and temporal rainfall distribution over the catchment is probabilistically related to a known rainfall data source located in the catchment in order to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall with respect to the rain gauge measured data. The resulting link node model structure is a series of stochastic integral equations, one equation for each subarea. A cumulative stochastic integral equation is developed as a sum of the above series, and includes the complete spatial and temporal variabilities of the rainfall over the catchment. The resulting stochastic integral equation is seen to be an extension of the well-known single area unit hydrograph method, except that the model output of a runoff hydrograph is a distribution of outcomes (or realizations) when applied to problems involving prediction of storm runoff; that is, the model output is a set of probable runoff hydrographs, each outcome being the results of calibration to a known storm event. 相似文献
13.
Abstract An attempt was made to compensate for the lack of long hydrological time series and the lack of information on maximum streamflow in the Alzette River basin (Luxembourg) via the regionalization of stormflow coefficients. Streamflow data recorded since 1995 with a very dense streamgauge network allowed the determination of maximum stormflow coefficients in 18 sub-basins of the Alzette. The stormflow coefficients were then regionalized via stepwise multiple regression analysis for 83 different sub-basins of the Alzette. Combined with 10-year daily rainfall heights (statistical estimation), this regionalization allowed the spatial variability of storm runoff in the Alzette basin to be mapped, thus providing a view of hazard and risk-producing areas, as well as of risk-exposed areas. In a basin with little historical hydrological information this technique can help identify areas where storm runoff reducing measures should be applied from the outset. 相似文献
14.
P. Athira K. P. Sudheer R. Cibin I. Chaubey 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1131-1149
Regionalization of model parameters by developing appropriate functional relationship between the parameters and basin characteristics is one of the potential approaches to employ hydrological models in ungauged basins. While this is a widely accepted procedure, the uniqueness of the watersheds and the equifinality of parameters bring lot of uncertainty in the simulations in ungauged basins. This study proposes a method of regionalization based on the probability distribution function of model parameters, which accounts the variability in the catchment characteristics. It is envisaged that the probability distribution function represents the characteristics of the model parameter, and when regionalized the earlier concerns can be addressed appropriately. The method employs probability distribution of parameters, derived from gauged basins, to regionalize by regressing them against the catchment attributes. These regional functions are used to develop the parameter characteristics in ungauged basins based on the catchment attributes. The proposed method is illustrated using soil water assessment tool model for an ungauged basin prediction. For this numerical exercise, eight different watersheds spanning across different climatic settings in the USA are considered. While all the basins considered in this study were gauged, one of them was assumed to be ungauged (pseudo-ungauged) in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in ungauged basin simulation. The process was repeated by considering representative basins from different climatic and landuse scenarios as pseudo-ungauged. The results of the study indicated that the ensemble simulations in the ungauged basins were closely matching with the observed streamflow. The simulation efficiency varied between 57 and 61 % in ungauged basins. The regional function was able to generate the parameter characteristics that were closely matching with the original probability distribution derived from observed streamflow data. 相似文献
15.
J. A. RODIER 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):531-544
Abstract The management of water resources requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of surface and groundwater resources, and an assessment of the influence of man on the hydrological regime. For small water courses regional estimates can be made from representative basins which offer guidelines (1) for the computation of mean annual flow and in some cases for the determination of the statistical distribution of the annual flow; (2) for the computation of the 10-year flood maximum discharge and volume. An example concerning the tropical African Sahel is given. From a general study of the daily precipitation, a simple rainfall/runoff model used on a daily basis and calibrated on data from representative basins, and also the direct comparison of results from 55 representative basins, statistical distribution curves were established for annual runoff based on mean annual precipitation and the geomorphological characteristics of the basins. Another example concerning tropical Africa west of Congo presents a methodology for the computation of the 10-year flood (maximum discharge and volume). The systematic study of 60 representative basins makes it possible to plot the runoff coefficient R/P as a function of basin climate, mean slope and soil permeability. Other curves are used to determine the time of rise and the base time of the hydrograph as a function of the basin area and the mean slope. The experimental basin is a good tool for the assessment of the influence of man on hydrological parameters. An example shows the influence of land use on the regression between annual precipitation and annual runoff. 相似文献
16.
Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the watershed is remarkably improved up to 50% in comparison to the simulations by the individual models. Results indicate that the developed methodology not only provides reliable tools for rainfall and runoff modeling, but also adequate time for incorporating required mitigation measures in dealing with potentially extreme runoff events and flood hazard. Results of this study can be used in identification of the main factors affecting flood hazard analysis. 相似文献
17.
SomepeOPlehaverecognizedtheSPatialvariationoflandionnsandgeomorphicPeainthehillyloessregion,NOIthClam(Chenetal.1988).SuchvariationshaVe~linkedtotheverticalzonationofsoilerosionandsedimentproduedoninthisarea(Catetat.1994).HoWeVer,noneOftheStlldiesaPProachtheProbleminaqUantitativemanner.NorweretherelationsbetweensoilerosionPr~sontheoneban4andhydrologicandghgogicalcharacteristicsofthevariouSslopezonesontheother,dearlyestatiIisned.Inaaamon,~stubbesintheareahaveprtridtahotoshowthe~rtanceo… 相似文献
18.
G. H. LEAVESLEY 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):617-634
Abstract Snowmelt runoff is a significant component of the hydrological cycle in many regions. Major problems of snowmelt runoff modelling associated with the physiographic and climatic conditions of these regions, and problem solutions being investigated, are reviewed. Problems common to all regions include: (a) definition of the spatial and temporal distribution of model input; (b) measurement or estimation of snow accumulation, snowmelt, and runoff process parameters for a range of applications and scales; and (c) development of accurate short term and long term snowmelt runoff forecasts. Procedures being investigated to solve these problems include: (a) integrating conventional and remote-sensing data to improve estimates of input data; (b) developing snowmelt process algorithms which have parameters that are closely related to measurable basin and climatic characteristics; and (c) updating model parameters and components using measured data or knowledge of past uncertainty. Research needs include development of improved model capabilities and establishment of standardized techniques and measures to evaluate model performance and results. 相似文献
19.
Methods for estimating the magnitude of extreme floods are reviewed. A method which combines a probabilistic storm transposition technique with a physically-based distributed rainfallrunoff model is described. Synthetic storms with detailed spatial and temporal distributions are generated and applied to the calibrated model of the Brue river basin, U.K. (area 135 km2). The variability of catchment response due to storm characteristics (storm area, storm duration, storm movement, storm shape and within storm variation) and initial catchment wetness conditions is investigated. A probabilistic approach to estimating the return periods of extreme catchment responses is suggested. 相似文献
20.
Addressing uncertainty in reflectivity‐rainfall relations in mountain watersheds during summer convection 
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下载免费PDF全文 The use of precipitation estimates from weather radar reflectivity has become widespread in hydrologic predictions. However, uncertainty remains in the use of the nonlinear reflectivity–rainfall (Z‐R) relation, in particular for mountainous regions where ground validation stations are often lacking, land surface data sets are inaccurate and the spatial variability in many features is high. In this study, we assess the propagation of rainfall errors introduced by different Z‐R relations on distributed hydrologic model performance for four mountain basins in the Colorado Front Range. To do so, we compare spatially integrated and distributed rainfall and runoff metrics at seasonal and event time scales during the warm season when convective storms dominate. Results reveal that the basin simulations are quite sensitive to the uncertainties introduced by the Z‐R relation in terms of streamflow, runoff mechanisms and the water balance components. The propagation of rainfall errors into basin responses follows power law relationships that link streamflow uncertainty to the precipitation errors and streamflow magnitude. Overall, different Z‐R relations preserve the spatial distribution of rainfall relative to a reference case, but not the precipitation magnitude, thus leading to large changes in streamflow amounts and runoff spatial patterns at seasonal and event scales. Furthermore, streamflow errors from the Z‐R relation follow a typical pattern that varies with catchment scale where higher uncertainties exist for intermediate‐sized basins. The relatively high error values introduced by two operational Z‐R relations (WSR‐57 and NEXRAD) in terms of the streamflow response indicate that site‐specific Z‐R relations are desirable in the complex terrain region, particularly in light of other uncertainties in the modelling process, such as model parameter values and initial conditions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献