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1.
Accounting harvested wood products and their trade as an integral part of thecarbon cycle of a managed forest is achallenging task. Nevertheless, an appropriate way is especially needed nowthat harvested wood products may be includedin Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol. The adoption of a method for accountingfor these flows in the IPCC guidelines mayhave implications for the trade of wood products and thus on global forestmanagement.Four methods of accounting for wood products in an international perspective areanalyzed in the present study. The aimis to obtain insight in the technical and policy implications of the proposedmethods. These methods include the presentdefault IPCC method and three alternatives: flow consumption, flow production,and stock change. All fourmethodologies are applied to the 1990 data of Gabon, Sweden, and TheNetherlands.The impact of accounting for wood products using alternative methods has –in some cases – a large impact on the carbonbalance of the Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) sector. In the case of TheNetherlands, it was found that theLUCF carbon balance could be `converted' from a sink into a source dependingon the method chosen. However,the LUCF sector is very small compared to the total national carbon balancein The Netherlands. In Sweden, a countrywhere the forest sector plays an important role, the alternative wood productmethods influence the total nationalcarbon balance by 34%. In Gabon, a country with conversion forestry,the impact of alternative wood productmethods hardly influences the LUCF carbon balance because the emissions fromdeforestation are very large.The accounting method may have a large impact on the way countries regardtheir trade in wood products. It may bepossible for countries to buy a sink through the wood products trade, byimporting products faster than they decomposedomestically. In the case of Gabon with its conversion forestry (the changefrom forest into other types of land use, like agriculture,it was foundthat under the flow consumption method,this country can partly export the carbon sources resulting fromnonsustainable forest management. Nor is this lattermethod consistent with the energy chapter of the IPCC guidelines. The stockchange method seems to be a suitablemethod, combining precise accounting and simplicity. This method is also anincentive for the use of wood in long-lifeproducts and bioenergy, and for sustainable forest management.  相似文献   

2.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):41-54
Abstract

One strategy for mitigating the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is to expand the size of the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly forests, essentially using trees as biological scrubbers. Within relevant ranges of carbon abatement targets, augmenting carbon sequestration by protecting and expanding biomass sinks can potentially make large contributions at costs that are comparable or lower than for emission source controls. The Kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change includes many provisions for forest and land use carbon sequestration projects and activities in its signatories' overall greenhouse gas mitigation plans. In particular, the protocol provides a joint implementation provision and a clean development mechanism that would allow nations to claim credit for carbon sequestration projects undertaken in cooperation with other countries. However, there are many obstacles for implementing an effective program of land use change and forestry carbon credits, especially measurement challenges. This paper explains the difficulty that even impartial analysts have in assessing the carbon offset benefits of projects. When these measurement challenges are combined with self-interest, asymmetries of information, and large numbers, it prevents to a project-based forest and land use carbon credit program may be insurmountable.  相似文献   

3.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(1):41-54
One strategy for mitigating the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is to expand the size of the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly forests, essentially using trees as biological scrubbers. Within relevant ranges of carbon abatement targets, augmenting carbon sequestration by protecting and expanding biomass sinks can potentially make large contributions at costs that are comparable or lower than for emission source controls. The Kyoto protocol to the framework convention on climate change includes many provisions for forest and land use carbon sequestration projects and activities in its signatories’ overall greenhouse gas mitigation plans. In particular, the protocol provides a joint implementation provision and a clean development mechanism that would allow nations to claim credit for carbon sequestration projects undertaken in cooperation with other countries. However, there are many obstacles for implementing an effective program of land use change and forestry carbon credits, especially measurement challenges. This paper explains the difficulty that even impartial analysts have in assessing the carbon offset benefits of projects. When these measurement challenges are combined with self-interest, asymmetries of information, and large numbers, it prevents to a project-based forest and land use carbon credit program may be insurmountable.  相似文献   

4.
This article addresses the question of how forestry projects, given the recently improved standards for the accounting of carbon sequestration, can benefit from existing and emerging carbon markets in the world. For a long time, forestry projects have been set up for the purpose of generating carbon credits. They were surrounded by uncertainties about the permanence of carbon sequestration in trees, potential replacement of deforestation due to projects (leakage), and how and what to measure as sequestered carbon. Through experience with Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestry projects, albeit limited, and with forestry projects in voluntary carbon markets, considerable improvements have been made with accounting of carbon sequestration in forests, resulting in a more solid basis for carbon credit trading. The scope of selling these credits exists both in compliance markets, although currently with strong limitations, and in voluntary markets for offsetting emissions with carbon credits. Improved carbon accounting methods for forestry investments can also enhance the scope for forestry in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that countries must prepare under the Paris Agreement.

POLICY RELEVANCE

This article identifies how forestry projects can contribute to climate change mitigation. Forestry projects have addressed a number of challenges, like reforestation, afforestation on degraded lands, and long-term sustainable forest management. An interesting new option for forestry carbon projects could be the NDCs under the Paris Agreement in December 2015. Initially, under CDM and JI, the number of forestry projects was far below that for renewable energy projects. With the adoption of the Paris Agreement, both developed and developing countries have agreed on NDCs for country-specific measures on climate change mitigation, and increased the need for investing in new measures. Over the years, considerable experience has been built up with forestry projects that fix CO2 over a long-term period. Accounting rules are nowadays at a sufficient level for the large potential of forestry projects to deliver a reliable, additional contribution towards reducing or halting emissions from deforestation and forest degradation activities worldwide.  相似文献   


5.
Brazil's Amazon rainforest provides an important environmental service with its storage of carbon, thereby reducing global warming. A growing number of projects and proposals intend to reward carbon storage services. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is currently a key issue for negotiations on an international agreement that is to take effect in 2013. Various issues require decisions that will have substantial impacts on both the effectiveness of mitigation and the scale of Amazonia's potential role. These decisions include the effects that money generated from payments can have, the spatial scale of mitigation (e.g. projects or countries and sub-national political units), whether to have voluntary or mandatory markets, and whether these reductions will generate carbon credits to offset emissions elsewhere. It is argued that national-level programmes, combined with a national target under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, are the best solution for Brazil in terms of both capturing international funding and stimulating the major cuts in global emissions that are needed to minimize climate risk to the Amazon rainforest. The high likelihood of passing a tipping point for maintaining the Amazon rainforest implies the need for urgency in altering current negotiating positions.  相似文献   

6.
Biological activities that sequester carbon create CO2 offset credits that could obviate the need for reductions in fossil fuel use. Credits are earned by storing carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and wood products, although CO2 emissions are also mitigated by delaying deforestation, which accounts for one-quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, non-permanent carbon offsets from biological activities are difficult to compare with each other and with emissions reduction because they differ in how long they prevent CO2 from entering the atmosphere. This is the duration problem. It results in uncertainty and makes it hard to determine the legitimacy of biological activities in mitigating climate change. Measuring, verifying and monitoring the carbon sequestered in sinks greatly increases transaction costs and leads to rent seeking by sellers of dubious sink credits. While biological sink activities undoubtedly help mitigate climate change and should not be neglected, it is shown that there are limits to the substitutability between temporary offset credits from these activities and emissions reduction, and that this has implications for carbon trading. A possible solution to inherent incommensurability between temporary and permanent credits is also suggested.  相似文献   

7.
The Kyoto Protocol introduces the possibility that changes in carbon stock on agricultural and forest land and soils may be counted against countries’ commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Including activities related to land use change and forestry in the international climate change agreement may stimulate new incentives for soil-conservation practices domestically. However, a primary criteria for their inclusion relates to the level of accuracy and transparency with which carbon stock changes can be assessed. Parties will also be concerned with the wider environmental impact of different sequestration practices, and the impact of offsets on overall emissions targets. This paper examines these issues for agricultural soils, considering recent research in North America. It is argued that incentives for carbon sequestration practices may need to be implemented independently of actual stock changes because farm-level soil monitoring would be very costly. In the USA, priority should be given to establishing incentives for cover crops and to expanding conservation tillage programs. These activities provide a range of ancillary environmental benefits. In contrast, improvements in biomass yield tend to rely on higher fertilizer inputs with their related environmental costs. Carbon accumulated through any of these activities is easily lost if the practices are discontinued, and so assessment procedures are needed that would avoid overestimating sequestration. Annual accumulation in agricultural soils could be equivalent to about 10% of Annex I carbon dioxide emissions, and therefore options for limiting sink credits from soils should be considered.  相似文献   

8.
The paper quantifies the role of Indian forests as source or sink of carbon. The model used in the study takes into account the growing stock, additional tree organs, dead biomass, litter layer and soil organic matter, harvesting and harvesting losses, effects of pests, fire etc., allocation of timber to wood products, life span of products including recycling and allocation to landfills. The net carbon balance calculated as the net source or sink of the forest sector was assessed for the year 1993–94. The study isimportant in view of the obligation placed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on the signatory nations to provide a periodic update of carbon budget in the atmosphere. For the available data and the underlying assumptions, the results of the carbon budget model indicated that the Indian forest sector acted as a source of 12.8 TgC (including accumulation of carbon in the dead biomass) for the year 1994. The results obtained reinforced the notion that an integrated approach is required in order to evaluate the forest sector's influence on the global atmospheric carbon levels. The model used in this study has the advantage that all the factors determining the carbon budget can be integrated and altered to determine their influence. The study also throws light on the issues that stand in the way of preparing through carbon budget for developing countries like India.  相似文献   

9.
Mitigating the potential large negative impacts of a change in the earth's climate will require strong and definite actions in the different economic sectors, particularly within agriculture and forestry. Specifically, soils deserve a close examination due to their large carbon mitigation potential. The Kyoto protocol establishes the possibility for crediting greenhouse gas emission reductions from forestry and agriculture activities. In most circumstances, particularly those regarding developing countries, greenhouse gas mitigation activities will be carried out through projects. These projects will have to meet a series of criteria, for the carbon benefits to be measurable, transparent, verifiable and certified. These criteria include: establishing credible baselines (without-project or reference scenario), additionality, permanence, quantifying and reducing potential leakage of greenhouse gases across project borders, coping with natural or human induced risks, accurately measuring changes in carbon stocks using carbon accounting techniques, and – in the case of the Clean DevelopmentMechanism – resulting in sustainable development benefits. In this paper we describe the methods and approaches that have been developed to cope with the different criteria and discuss their implications for carbon sequestration in soils. Soil carbon represents the largest carbon pool of terrestrial ecosystems, and has been estimated to have one of the largest potentials to sequester carbon worldwide. However, getting credits from soil carbon sequestration through project activities presents several challenges: the need to monitor small incremental changes in soil carbon content relative to large carbon pools, long-time periods to accrue the full carbon benefits, high local variability of soil carbon content, and relatively costly soil carbon measurement procedures. Also, the responses of soil C stocks to forestry and agriculture activities are complex and need careful attention. Specifically, the time dynamics of soil C responses to land use changes, the diversity of soil types, soil-plant interactions, and the availability of accurate soil C inventories, should be considered to successfully implement LULUCF projects.  相似文献   

10.
Probabilistic climate change projections using neural networks   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Anticipated future warming of the climate system increases the need for accurate climate projections. A central problem are the large uncertainties associated with these model projections, and that uncertainty estimates are often based on expert judgment rather than objective quantitative methods. Further, important climate model parameters are still given as poorly constrained ranges that are partly inconsistent with the observed warming during the industrial period. Here we present a neural network based climate model substitute that increases the efficiency of large climate model ensembles by at least an order of magnitude. Using the observed surface warming over the industrial period and estimates of global ocean heat uptake as constraints for the ensemble, this method estimates ranges for climate sensitivity and radiative forcing that are consistent with observations. In particular, negative values for the uncertain indirect aerosol forcing exceeding –1.2 Wm–2 can be excluded with high confidence. A parameterization to account for the uncertainty in the future carbon cycle is introduced, derived separately from a carbon cycle model. This allows us to quantify the effect of the feedback between oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake and global warming on global temperature projections. Finally, probability density functions for the surface warming until year 2100 for two illustrative emission scenarios are calculated, taking into account uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, model parameters and the observed temperature records. We find that warming exceeds the surface warming range projected by IPCC for almost half of the ensemble members. Projection uncertainties are only consistent with IPCC if a model-derived upper limit of about 5 K is assumed for climate sensitivity.  相似文献   

11.
Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2–5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from −0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

The Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP-9) decided to adopt an accounting system based on expiring carbon credits to address the problem of non-permanent carbon storage in forests established under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This article reviews and discusses carbon accounting methods that were under consideration before COP-9 and presents a model which calculates the minimum area that forest plantation projects should reach to be able to compensate CDM transaction costs with the revenues from carbon credits. The model compares different accounting methods under various sets of parameters on project management, transaction costs, and carbon prices. Model results show that under current carbon price and average transaction costs, projects with an area of less than 500 ha are excluded from the CDM, whatever accounting method is used. Temporary crediting appears to be the most favorable approach to account for non-permanent carbon removal in forests and also for the feasibility of smaller projects. However, lower prices for credits with finite lifetimes may prevent the establishment of CDM forestry projects. Also, plantation projects with low risk of unexpected carbon loss and sufficient capacity for insuring or buffering the risk of carbon re-emission would benefit from equivalence-adjusted average carbon storage accounting rather than from temporary crediting.  相似文献   

13.
Carbon Sequestration and the Restoration of Land Health   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Carbon sequestration, the conversion of greenhouse gas CO2 toorganic matter, offers a powerful tool with which to combat climate change. The enlargement of carbon sinks stored in soil and biota is an essential tool in buying time while mankind seeks means to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to reduce the elevated levels of atmospheric CO2. Carbon sequestration within the context of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) also has great potential as an incentive for combating land degradation and desertification and restoring fertility to degraded land.Decisions regarding carbon sinks during finalization of the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 fit well the needs of countries facing land degradation and desertification. However, incentives for such mitigation through the Clean Development Mechanism of the protocol are limited to forestry issues. Iceland provides a good example of the multiple role of carbon sequestration in meeting national commitments to UNFCCC, conserving and restoring biological diversity, combating soil erosion, revegetation of eroded land and reforestation. Linking carbon sequestration with such goals has resulted in increased funds for soil conservation and restoration of degraded land in Iceland.  相似文献   

14.
This paper examines the potential role of forest set-asides in global carbon sequestration policy. While set asides that protect forests from timber harvests and land-use conversion may alleviate concerns with permanence, and they may provide large ancillary environmental benefits, they may also lead to large leakage. This paper uses a global land use and forestry model to examine the efficiency of three crediting schemes for set-asides. The results show that if set-asides are integrated into a global forestry carbon sequestration program that includes a wide range of other management options, then 300 million hectares of land would be set-aside, and up to 128 Pg C could be sequestered in global forests by 2105. Under alternative policies that focus exclusively on set-asides, more forestland can be set-asides, up to 3.2 billion hectare, but these policies invite large leakage in the near-term, and in the long-run, they less net carbon is removed from the atmosphere. Specifically, leakage is estimated to be 47–52%, depending on the policy, and by the end of the century, up to 17% less carbon will be sequestered in all forests.  相似文献   

15.
目前欧盟、中国、日本、韩国、加拿大,以及南非等国家或地区,已经公布了温室气体中和或者碳中和的目标,如果加上很可能很快也会提出碳中和目标的美国,全球有可能近70%的CO2排放的国家或地区提出碳中和的目标。由于这些国家或地区是全球技术主导和经济主导地,因而全球2050年左右实现碳中和具有可行性。2050年左右实现碳中和,即和《巴黎协定》2℃目标,甚至和其1.5℃温升目标下的减排路径相一致。研究表明实现2050年左右碳中和有其可行性,实现该目标需要更多的技术创新,未来将是各个国家技术竞争和经济竞争阶段。  相似文献   

16.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):752-767
Policy-makers and scientists have raised concerns about the functioning of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), in particular regarding its low contribution to sustainable development, unbalanced regional and sectoral distribution of projects, and its limited contribution to global emission reductions. Differentiation between countries or project types has been proposed as a possible way forward to address these problems. An overview is provided of the different ways in which CDM differentiation could be implemented. The implications for the actors involved in the CDM are analysed, along with a quantitative assessment of the impacts on the carbon market, using bottom-up marginal abatement cost curves. The discounting of CDM credits, quota systems, or differentiated eligibility of countries could help to address several of the concerns raised. Preferential treatment may also make a limited contribution to achieving the aims of CDM differentiation by increasing opportunities for under-represented host countries. The impact on the carbon market appears to be limited for most options.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period.  相似文献   

18.
Greenhouse gas removal technologies and practices are essential to bring emissions to net zero and limit global warming to 1.5 °C. To achieve this, the majority of integrated assessment models (IAMs), that generate future emissions scenarios and inform the international policy process, use large-scale afforestation and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The feasibility of these technologies and practices has only so far been considered from a relatively narrow techno-economic or biophysical perspective. Here, we present one of the first studies to elicit perspectives through an expert mapping process to open up and broaden the discussion around feasibility of afforestation and BECCS. Our stakeholders included business and industry, non-governmental organisations and policy makers, spanning expertise in bioenergy, forestry, CCS and climate change. Perspectives were elicited on (1) issues relating to BECCS with large-scale afforestation, and (2) specific criteria for assessing feasibility. Participants identified 12 main themes with 61 sub-themes around issues, and 11 main themes with 33 sub-themes around feasibility criteria. Our findings show important societal and governance aspects of feasibility that are currently under-represented, specifically issues around real-world complexity, competing human needs, justice and ethics. Unique to the use of these technologies for greenhouse gas removal are issues around temporal and spatial scale, and greenhouse gas accounting. Using these expert insights, we highlight where IAMs currently poorly capture these concerns. These broader, often more qualitative perspectives, issues and uncertainties must be recognised and accounted for, in order to understand the real-world feasibility of large-scale afforestation and BECCS and the role they play in limiting climate change. These considerations enable widening the scope to broader and deeper discussions about possible and desirable futures, beyond a focus on achieving net-zero emissions, attentive to the effects such decisions may have. We outline approaches that can be used to attend to the complex social and political dimensions that IAMs do not render. By complementing IAMs in this way opportunities can be created to open up considerations of future options and alternatives beyond those framings proposed by IAMs, creating opportunities for inclusion of knowledges, reflexivity and responsibility.  相似文献   

19.
Forests have an important role to play in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and wood supply. However, the lower albedo of mature forests compared to bare land implies that focusing only on GHG accounting may lead to biased estimates of forestry's total climatic impacts. An economic model with a high degree of detail of the Norwegian forestry and forest industries is used to simulate GHG fluxes and albedo impacts for the next decades. Albedo is incorporated in a carbon tax/subsidy scheme in the Norwegian forest sector using a partial, spatial equilibrium model. While a price of EU€100/tCO2e that targets GHG fluxes only results in reduced harvests, the same price including albedo leads to harvest levels that are five times higher in the first five years, with 39% of the national productive forest land base being cleared. The results suggest that policies that only consider GHG fluxes and ignore changes in albedo will not lead to an optimal use of the forest sector for climate change mitigation.

Policy relevance

Bare land reflects a larger share of incoming solar energy than dense forest and thus has higher albedo. Earlier research has suggested that changes in albedo caused by management of boreal forest may be as important as carbon fluxes for the forest's overall global warming impacts. The presented analysis is the first attempt to link albedo to national-scale forest climate policies. A policy with subsidies to forest owners that generate carbon sequestration and taxes levied on carbon emissions leads to a reduced forest harvest. However, including albedo in the policy alongside carbon fluxes yields very different results, causing initial harvest levels to increase substantially. The inclusion of albedo impacts will make harvests more beneficial for climate change mitigation as compared to a carbon-only policy. Hence, it is likely that carbon policies that ignore albedo will not lead to optimal forest management for climate change mitigation.  相似文献   

20.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(2):229-249
This article provides a first-cut estimate of the potential impacts of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the power sector of non-Annex 1 countries. We construct four illustrative CDM regimes that represent a range of approaches under consideration within the climate community. We examine the impact of these CDM regimes on investments in new generation, under illustrative carbon trading prices of US$ 10 and 100/t C. In the cases that are most conducive to CDM activity, roughly 94% of new generation investments remains identical to the without-CDM situation, with only 6% shifting from higher to lower carbon intensity technologies. We estimate that the CDM would bolster renewable energy generation by as little as 15% at US$ 10/t C, or as much as 300% at US$ 100/t C.A striking finding comes from our examination of the potential magnitude of the “free-rider” problem, i.e. crediting of activities that will occur even in the absence of the CDM. The CDM is intended to be globally carbon-neutral — a project reduces emissions in the host country but generates credits that increase emissions in the investor country. However, to the extent that unwarranted credits are awarded to non-additional projects, the CDM would increase global carbon emissions above the without-CDM emissions level. Under two of the CDM regimes considered, cumulative free-riders credits total 250–600 Mt C through the end of the first budget period in 2012. This represents 10–23% of the likely OECD emissions reduction requirement during the first budget period. Since such a magnitude of free-rider credits from non-additional CDM projects could threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto protocol, it is imperative that policy makers devise CDM rules that encourage legitimate projects, while effectively screening out non-additional activities.  相似文献   

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