共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
白龙江引水工程是我国拟建的一项重大战略工程,而代古寺水库是该工程的水源枢纽。代古寺水库及其周围地区(本文研究区)活动断层发育、大地震频发,故亟需开展可靠的地震危险性评估,为该研究区内的工程建设和运营保驾护航。由于传统评估方法物理依据不足,难以正确评估研究区的地震危险性,故本文采用了基于地震物理预测的地震危险性评估新方法。研究结果表明,该研究区位于海原地震区,未来100年内该研究区的地震危险性主要源于海原地震区的下一次MS8.5标志性地震。根据断层地震活动、发震潜力与展布特征,我们预判了该标志性地震的可能发震断层和震中位置;应用地震烈度衰减关系,考虑不同震中位置,分别计算了其产生的地震烈度。为确保“百年大计”的白龙江引水工程代古寺水库水资源枢纽安全,我们建议该研究区的抗震设防烈度不宜低于8度。 相似文献
2.
A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the
world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure
of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided
into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved
by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory,
and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology
used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been
identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern
of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into
transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction,
etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed
on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably
decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include
concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO
zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source.
Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical
and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database
that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required
for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic
earthquake effects in a predetermined location. 相似文献
3.
Testing a new hybrid approach to seismic hazard assessment: an application to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
We tested a new hybrid method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. A recently proposed fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence model of peninsular Italy suggests that the interval for which the local historical catalogue is complete is shorter than the mean recurrence time of individual large faults (1000 years), or at the most comparable. These new findings violate the fundamental assumption of historical probabilistic seismic hazard methods that the historical record is representative of the activity of all the seismogenic sources. The hybrid method we propose uses time-dependent modelling of the major earthquakes and catalogue-based historical probabilistic estimates for all minor events. We assume that the largest earthquakes are characteristic for individual discrete fault segments, model their probability of occurrence by a renewal process and compute the shaking associated with each of them with a simplified procedure. Then we calculate the probability of exceeding a given threshold of peak ground acceleration for specific sites as the aggregate probability of occurrence of large characteristic earthquakes and minor shocks. We apply the method to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) performing the calculations for five major towns. The exposure to seismic hazard of Reggio Calabria, Catanzaro and Vibo Valentia, which locate close to recently activated large faults, decreases with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. On the contrary, an increase of seismic hazard is obtained for Castrovillari, which locates in an area where large faults displaying Holocene activity have been recently recognized but no significant earthquake is reported in the historical catalogue. Cosenza has the highest probability to experience a significant peak ground acceleration with both the new hybrid and the traditional approaches. We wish to stress that the present results should be interpreted only in terms of the differences between the new hybrid and the traditional approaches, not for their absolute values, and that they are not intended to be used for updating or modifying the current national seismic zonation. 相似文献
4.
3-D seismic structure of the Kachchh,Gujarat, and its implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Several pieces of studies on the January 26, 2001, Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.6) revealed that the mainshock was triggered on the
hidden unmapped fault in the western part of Indian stable continental region that caused a huge loss in the entire Kachchh
rift basin of Gujarat, India. Occurrences of infrequent earthquakes of Mw 7.6 due to existence of hidden and unmapped faults
on the surface have become one of the key issues for geoscientific research, which need to be addressed for evolving plausible
earthquake hazard mitigation model. In this study, we have carried out a detailed autopsy of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake source
zone by applying three-dimensional (3-D) local earthquake tomography (LET) method to a completely new data set consisting
of 576 local earthquakes recorded between November 2006 and April 2009 by a seismic network consisting of 22 numbers of three-component
broadband digital seismograph stations. In the present study, a total of 7560 arrival times of P-wave (3820) and S-wave (3740)
recorded at least 4 seismograph stations were inverted to assimilate 3-D P-wave velocity (Vp), S-wave velocity (Vs), and Poisson’s
ratio (σ) structures beneath the 2001 Bhuj earthquake source zone for reliable interpretation of the imaged anomalies and
its bearing on earthquake hazard of the region. The source zone is located near the triple junction formed by juxtapositions
of three Indian, Arabian, and Iranian tectonic plates that might have facilitated the process of brittle failure at a depth
of 25 km beneath the KRB, Gujarat, which caused a gigantic loss to both property and persons of the region. There may be several
hidden seismogenic faults around the epicentral zone of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in the area, which are detectable using 3-D
tomography to minimize earthquake hazard for a region. We infer that the use of detailed 3-D seismic tomography may offer
potential information on hidden and unmapped faults beneath the plate interior to unravel the genesis of such big damaging
earthquakes. This study may help in evolving a comprehensive earthquake risk mitigation model for regions of analogous geotectonic
settings, elsewhere in the world. 相似文献
5.
Areas of low strain rate are typically characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The earthquake catalogs for these regions
do not usually include large earthquakes because of their long recurrence periods. In cases where the recurrence period of
large earthquakes is much longer than the catalog time span, probabilistic seismic hazard is underestimated. The information
provided by geological and paleo-seismological studies can potentially improve seismic hazard estimation through renewal models,
which assume characteristic earthquakes. In this work, we compare the differences produced when active faults in the northwestern
margin of the València trough are introduced in hazard analysis. The differences between the models demonstrate that the introduction
of faults in zones characterized by low seismic activity can give rise to significant changes in the hazard values and location.
The earthquake and fault seismic parameters (recurrence interval, segmentation or fault length that controls the maximum magnitude
earthquake and time elapsed since the last event or Te) were studied to ascertain their effect on the final hazard results. The most critical parameter is the recurrence interval,
where shorter recurrences produce higher hazard values. The next most important parameter is the fault segmentation. Higher
hazard values are obtained when the fault has segments capable of producing big earthquakes. Finally, the least critical parameter
is the time elapsed since the last event (Te), when longer Te produces higher hazard values. 相似文献
6.
We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk. 相似文献
7.
可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。 相似文献
8.
滇西南2014年景谷中-强震群的地质构造成因——茶房-普文断裂带贯通过程的构造响应 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
2014年10—12月期间,云南景谷接连发生了Ms6.6、Ms5.8、Ms5.9三次中-强地震。为确定地震的地质构造成因,在地表调查的基础上,综合该区的地质构造情况、烈度与余震分布、震源机制解等资料,确定此次震群活动的宏观震中位于永平盆地东南侧山地,发震断层为地质与地貌表现不显著的NW向右旋走滑断层。此次震群活动及余震迁移过程指示,由于断层斜接部位岩桥的临时阻碍,Ms6.6地震破裂在向南东扩展过程中发生短暂停滞,突破障碍后进一步引发了Ms5.8和Ms5.9地震,这符合震源破裂沿NW向发震断裂分段破裂的行为。区域活动断裂的遥感解译结果发现,发震断层位置恰好处于NW向右旋走滑的茶房断裂与普文断裂之间,区域上属于该断裂带的不连贯部位,指示此次中-强震群活动应该是茶房-普文断裂带贯通过程的构造活动表现。结合思茅地块的历史地震资料发现,思茅地块地震活动多以小于等于6.8级为主,发震构造多为NW向断裂。指示在现今构造应力场作用下,该区NW向断裂的活动性相对NE向断裂更加显著,属于该区主要控震构造,应在今后的地震地质工作中给予更多关注。 相似文献
9.
Maria Serafina Barbano Giovanna Pappalardo Claudia Pirrotta Simone Mineo 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1587-1607
A new dataset of landslides, occurred in a tectonically active region, has been analysed in order to understand the causes of the slope instability. The landslides we have dealt with took place along the volcanic rock cliff of S. Caterina and S. Maria La Scala villages (eastern Sicily, Italy), a densely inhabited area located on the eastern margin of Mt. Etna, where some seismogenic faults, locally named Timpe system, slip during moderate local earthquakes and also move with aseismic creep mechanisms. The results show that landslides are triggered by heavy rainfalls, earthquakes and creep fault episodes. Indeed, they occur along discrete fault segments, exhibiting a combination of both brittle failure, indicated by the earthquake occurrence, and aseismic creep events. The analysis of seismicity occurred on the Timpe fault system has shown that the active Acireale fault, in its southernmost segment, is subject to an aseismic sliding, which increases after the stick–slip motion in the nearby faults. Therefore, aseismic creep seems to concur in the predisposition of a rock to fail, since strains can increase the jointing of rock masses leading to a modification in the slope stability. Understanding the factors concurring to the slope instability is a useful tool for future assessments of the landslide hazard in densely settled areas, located on a volcanic edifice, such as Etna that is slowly sliding seawards, and where active faults, seismicity and heavy rains affect the deeply fractured slopes. 相似文献
10.
Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region. 相似文献
11.
Santi Pailoplee 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):1813-1827
In this study, the earthquake hazard was evaluated for all of 19 of the proposed or built dams along the Mekong River. All values representing a potential indication of hazardous earthquakes, such as the closest earthquake and seismogenic faults and including the seismic parameters required for a seismic safety evaluation, were clarified. The results will be useful in reviewing the safety of existing dams and for the design of suitable earthquake resistant specifications for any currently or future planned dam construction in this area. Seismotectonically, 14 of the 19 proposed Mekong River dams are located within an earthquake source zone. Most of faults are potentially still active, according to both seismicity and paleoseismological evidence. In addition, the maximum credible earthquakes were estimated to be in the range of 7–8 Mw for the closest fault zone of each dam. Previous isoseismal maps indicated a risk of shaking intensities of around scale III–IV (Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) for the dams. According to the preliminary ranging of the International Commission on Large Dams, 9 of these 19 dams are classified as in an extreme hazard class and so need careful observation and monitoring of hazardous earthquakes. An effective mitigation plan should also be prepared for each operating dam. 相似文献
12.
A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored. 相似文献
13.
建筑物的地震安全性是城市规划和建设过程首先要回答的问题。我国城市地震安全性评价的方法理论多针对地上建筑物,而对地下空间的地震安全性研究较为薄弱,严重滞后于城市发展对地下空间的需求。活断层是诱发地震、导致建筑物破坏的的直接因素。考虑到空间关系上,地下空间与断层之间的交互关系为相交或相离。因此,本文将地下空间分为两类:与断层相交的地下空间称为跨断层地下空间,远离断层的地下空间称为远离断层地下空间。本文尝试将断裂带同震地表破裂、地震峰值加速度、地震烈度等地表地震安全性评价考量的要素与地下空间埋藏深度建立联系,并在此基础上总结基于震害统计的地下空间地震安全性评价方法。最后,本文选取地下空间利用需求较高的深圳和北京地区为实例进行介绍。 相似文献
14.
This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic
map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The
region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories:
one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes
the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the
damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface
rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes
match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also
marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes
relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released
the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in
the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source
and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified
and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M
w
) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional
rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA)
due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum
of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map
developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes
gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones,
as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources. 相似文献
15.
2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震害调查及分析表明,目前以活动断裂和历史地震调查为重点的工程区域构造稳定性评价方法存在漏判与误判特大地震问题,从而为工程安全埋下重大安全隐患。以龙门山活动推覆体为例,在已有研究成果基础上,利用岩体结构控制论、拜尔利定律等普适性原理对龙门山地壳岩体结构力学特征、控震结构面的抗剪强度与地震震级的线性相关性、地震震级与抗震设防烈度的关系进行了定量研究,对评价区域构造稳定性的关键问题进行了探讨。结果表明,推覆体型活动地块边界带中的滑脱层是对推覆体区域构造稳定性起主要控制作用的构造结构面--控震结构面,地震震级与滑脱层的埋深、抗剪切强度存在显著相关性：8级地震的震源深度接近20 km、7级地震的震源深度接近14 km、6级地震的震源深度接近10 km,据此对研究区及邻近的古地震进行了深度核定,圈定了龙门山活动推覆体-岷山地块的6级以上强震可能发生的范围、对应Ⅶ－Ⅺ度的抗震设防烈度范围。此研究成果弥补了以往根据活动断裂-发震断裂-历史最大震级与对应地震烈度评价工程区域构造稳定性,因历史地震资料疏漏不全、活动断裂带研究平面与深度范围局限以及忽视区域构造稳定性的岩体力学实质而导致评价结果常常出现误判与漏判的诸多缺陷。 相似文献
16.
福建仙游位于福建省东南沿海中部,其周边地区历史地震活动较平静,属于弱震区。但自从该地区的金钟水库于2010年5月下闸蓄水后,库区附近的地震活动性随之增强。为深入了解该地区的地震活动性、地震分布特征以及寻找隐伏断层,利用中国地震局提供的地震初至震相数据,使用双差定位方法对仙游地区近10年发生的地震进行重定位,获得了更为精确的震源位置,并根据重定位结果模拟深部断裂,寻找隐伏断层。结果显示：(1)重定位后的震源位置更加集中,按照发震时间可分为4个活动区,主要沿沙县—南日岛的次级断裂石苍断裂两侧北西向线性分布。(2)重定位后仙游震群的震源深度主要为8～11 km。石苍断裂左侧地震条带震源深度为6～12 km;右侧地震条带呈现明显的分层现象,上层西北侧地震较为分散,东南侧地震分布较紧凑,震源深度同左侧一样为6～12 km,而下层地震较少,震源深度为14～23 km。(3)根据重定位后的震源位置,利用奇异值分解法拟合得到三个深部断层面,其倾向均为南西向,走向为北西向,与石苍断裂和潼关断裂的倾向和走向一致。结合前人研究成果和本研究结果,推测石苍断裂并不是主发震断层,而是其两侧存在的深部断裂(高倾角隐... 相似文献
17.
This paper examines the variability of seismic activity observed in the case of different geological zones of peninsular India (10°N–26°N; 68°E–90°E) based on earthquake catalog between the period 1842 and 2002 and estimates earthquake hazard for the region. With compilation of earthquake catalog in terms of moment magnitude and establishing broad completeness criteria, we derive the seismicity parameters for each geologic zone of peninsular India using maximum likelihood procedure. The estimated parameters provide the basis for understanding the historical seismicity associated with different geological zones of peninsular India and also provide important inputs for future seismic hazard estimation studies in the region. Based on present investigation, it is clear that earthquake recurrence activity in various geologic zones of peninsular India is distinct and varies considerably between its cratonic and rifting zones. The study identifies the likely hazards due to the possibility of moderate to large earthquakes in peninsular India and also presents the influence of spatial rate variation in the seismic activity of this region. This paper presents the influence of source zone characterization and recurrence rate variation pattern on the maximum earthquake magnitude estimation. The results presented in the paper provide a useful basis for probabilistic seismic hazard studies and microzonation studies in peninsular India. 相似文献
18.
In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential
source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the
fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important
to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference
(DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data
from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved,
with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude
from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km,
with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth
of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics
of this region. 相似文献
19.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard
analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake
Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First,
it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it
helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose
their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing
the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis
modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction
potential, building damage and casualty. 相似文献
20.
A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Carlo Meletti Fabrizio Galadini Gianluca Valensise Massimiliano Stucchi Roberto Basili Salvatore Barba Gianfranco Vannucci Enzo Boschi 《Tectonophysics》2008,450(1-4):85-108
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献