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1.
Drought, a frequent environmental disaster in the monsoon region of east China, significantly affects the agricultural economy. In recent years, researchers have emphasised drought risk management. This paper presents a preliminary method to analyse the risk of agricultural drought with regard to the loss of three main crops in individual prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. In this study, the agricultural drought risk is assessed by developing the index of consecutive rainless days and establishing loss rate curves based on the historical drought data from 1995 to 2008. The results show that the North China is seriously affected by drought hazard. Northeast China is the most sensitive to drought due to its large sown crop areas and weak irrigation. Approximately 11 % of the cities are in the extreme risk category; this category includes 26 % of the cultivated land area and 11 % of the total crop yields in the region. Twenty-three per cent of the cities, accounting for 28.5 % of the total cultivated land area and 26.4 % of the crop yields of the study area, are in high-risk areas, and 77 % of the cities with high and extreme risk levels are distributed in North and Northeast China. Moreover, 64 % of the cities in the monsoon region of East China are in moderate- and low-risk levels. These cities are primarily located south of the Yangtze River. In conclusion, minimising the risk of agricultural drought must be emphasised in northern China because of the high level of risk.  相似文献   

2.
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3.
Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit   总被引：14，自引：7，他引：7  
Hao  Lu  Zhang  Xiaoyu  Liu  Shoudong 《Natural Hazards》2012,61(2):785-801
China faces drought disaster risk under the changing climate. Risk analysis is a suitable approach in order to design ex-ante measure able to anticipate effects of drought on agricultural production. In this article, with the support of historic drought disaster data from 583 agro-meteorological observations (1991–2009), a risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory was applied to create a new drought risk analysis model, and the risk of China’s agriculture drought disaster was evaluated on higher spatial resolution of county unit. The results show that in more than three hundred counties of China, risk probability was biyearly or annually when Drought Affected Index (DAI) was over 5%. When DAI was up to 40%, more than one hundred counties were prone to drought disaster annually or once every 5 years. This showed that the impact of drought disaster on China’s agriculture, whether in frequency or intensity, was large. With the different level of DAI, China’s agricultural drought risk pattern showed variable pattern characteristics. When DAI was low, the distribution of county agricultural drought risk in China presented the East–West pattern of differentiation, and high risk mainly lied in the eastern, low risk mainly in the western. On the other hand, when DAI was high, the distribution of county risk appeared a pattern of high in center, and the north areas higher than the south, increased gradually from southwest to northeast. Drought risk presents a clear zonal differentiation that may be result from stepped topography, different precipitation and hazard-affected bodies. Spread of high value area of drought risk in northern may be related to the southeast monsoon and ecological degradation in northern Ecotone.  相似文献   

4.
Drought is one of the major natural disasters occurring in China and causes severe impacts on agricultural production and food security. Therefore, agricultural drought vulnerability assessment has an important significance for reducing regional agricultural drought losses and drought disaster risks. In view of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment with the characteristics of multiple factors and uncertainty, we applied the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation framework to agricultural drought vulnerability model. The agricultural drought vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the multi-layer and multi-index fuzzy clustering iterative method, which can better reveal the drought vulnerability (including sensitivity and adaptation capacity). Furthermore, the cycle iterative algorithm was used to obtain the optimal index weight vector of a given accuracy by setting the objective function. It provides a new approach to weight determination of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment. In this study, agricultural drought vulnerability of 65 cities (as well as leagues and states) in the Yellow River basin was investigated using a fuzzy clustering iterative model and visualized by using GIS technique. The results showed clear differences and regularities among the spatial distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability of different regions. A large number of the regions in the basin consisted of those exhibiting high to very high vulnerability and were mainly distributed throughout Qinghai, Gansu, northern Shaanxi, and southern Shanxi, accounting for 46 % of the total assessment units. However, the regions exhibiting very high vulnerability were not significantly affected by droughts. Most of the regions exhibiting moderate vulnerability (21.5 % of the assessment units) were mainly concentrated among agricultural irrigation areas, where agriculture is highly sensitive to droughts, and drought occurrence in these regions will likely cause heavy losses in the future. The regions exhibiting slight to low vulnerability were relatively concentrated, accounting for 32.3 % of the assessment units, and were mainly distributed in the plains of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, where the economy was rather well developed and the agricultural production conditions were relatively stronger.  相似文献   

5.
Northeast China as an important agricultural zone for commercial and economic crop in China suffered from increased drought risk that seriously threatened agricultural production and food security in recent decades. Based on precipitation datasets from 71 stations from 1960 to 2009 and on the reliable statistical methods of the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope and the Standardized Precipitation Index, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of drought occurrence during the crop-growing season (from May to September) and summer (from June to August). The results showed that regional mean precipitation during the crop-growing season and summer over the last 40 years has decreased at the rate of ?1.72 and ?1.12 mm/year, respectively. According to timescale analysis of abrupt changes, there were two distinct time series (1965–1983 and 1996–2009) with decreasing precipitation trends at a 95 % confidence level. A comparison between the two time series of these two periods demonstrated that more frequent and more severe drought occurred during 1996–2009. Furthermore, drought risk in recent decades has become even more serious both in severity and in extent. Especially in the crop-growing season of 2001 and summer of 2007, over 25 % (2.0 × 105 km2) of study area experienced severe drought (serious and extreme droughts). Our results highlight the urgent need for the development of effective drought adaptations for cropland over northeast China.  相似文献   

6.
利用1961-2012年中国区域586个气象站的降水、气温、日照时数、相对湿度、风速等资料计算了逐月K干旱指数, 在此基础上, 对全国16个区的干旱持续性特征进行了研究. 结果表明: 华北、河套、西北地区东部、西南地区北部、黄淮及新疆南部地区干旱的持续性较强, 常发生3个月以上的长期干旱过程, 并且容易在旱情解除后的短期内(1个月)再次出现干旱; 而南方、东北和新疆北部地区干旱的持续性较弱, 以1个月的短期干旱为主, 且干旱过程之间的时间间隔相对较长, 大多为3个月以上; 华北、河套、西北地区东部、西南地区北部和南部、以及华南地区的干旱过程在冬、秋季开始的频次最高, 且大部分在春季结束, 而冬、春两季的干旱明显比夏、秋两季偏多. 100°E以西(新疆北部除外)的广大地区干旱过程的开始时间主要集中在秋季, 结束时间集中在春、冬两季; 同时, 冬季和秋季干旱多发, 其次是春季, 夏季出现的干旱频次最少.  相似文献   

7.
Pei  Wei  Tian  Cuizhu  Fu  Qiang  Ren  Yongtai  Li  Tianxiao 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(3):1599-1620

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

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8.
A pilot area within the Venetian Plain was selected to assess the arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater. The area represents a typical residential, industrial and agricultural organization representative of most western countries, and is also devoid of lithologies with high or anomalous As content. Hydrogeological and chemical data have been collected, the latter spatialized by a geostatistical approach. The unconfined aquifer reservoir varies from a predominantly gravel composition in the north to a sandy and silt–clay composition further south, including peat layers. The hydrochemical features of the waters are rather homogeneous, featuring low mineral content and a Ca-bicarbonate signature. In contrast, the redox state is highly variable; oxidizing conditions are predominant in the northern and coarse parts of the aquifer, whereas reducing potentials prevail in the southern and silt–clay parts. Several well waters contain arsenic in excess of drinkable limits (=10 ppb), and most of these wells are located in the southern area. A large portion of the studied area has a high probability of containing non-potable water (up to 150 ppb As). Remarkably, As “hot spots” (As > 300 ppb, up to 431 ppb) were identified at the transition from gravel to silt–clay sediments. No industrial or agricultural source of As has been found.  相似文献   

9.
文章以广西柳州地区岩溶塌陷区为研究实例,对研究区岩溶塌陷的主要影响因素进行了野外实地调查和分析。考虑了鱼骨模型中各要素之间的联系以及要素断裂的分级影响,建立了断裂的分级缓冲区,进而划分了五个综合要素图层,基于改进的鱼骨模型对各影响因素矢量数据格式的要素图层进行空间叠加分析,绘制出“柳州地区岩溶塌陷风险预测区划图”。由区划图可知,已发现的塌陷群75%以上均落在强风险与中等风险区内,强风险区和中等风险区总分布范围约为研究区总面积的一半,主要分布在柳州地区中南部,覆盖层厚度较薄,较容易发生岩溶塌陷。已发现塌陷群25%以下分布在弱风险区以及很弱风险区内,主要分布在柳州地区的北部和西部,发生岩溶塌陷的概率较小。建议城市规划和建设选择在很弱风险区和弱风险区进行。   相似文献   

10.
This article investigates whether the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived global terrestrial Drought Severity Index (DSI) had the capability of detecting regional drought over subtropical southwestern China. Monthly, remotely sensed DSI data with 0.05° spatial resolution were used to characterize the extent, duration, and severity of drought from 2000 to 2010. We reported that southwestern China suffered from incipient to extreme droughts from November 2009 to March 2010 (referred to as the “drought period”). The area affected by drought occupied approximately 74 % of the total area of the study region, in which a moderate drought, severe drought, and an extreme drought accounted for 20, 12.7, and 13.2 % of the total area, respectively; particularly in March 2010, droughts of severe and extreme intensity covered the largest areas of drought, which were 16.1 and 18.6 %, respectively. Spatially, eastern Yunnan, western Guizhou, and Guangxi suffered from persistent droughts whose intensities ranged from mild to extreme during the drought period. Pearson’s correlation analyses were performed between DSI and the in situ meteorological station-based Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for validating the monitoring results of the DSI. The results showed that the DSI corresponded favorably with the time scales of the SPI; meanwhile, the DSI showed its highest correlation (mean: r = 0.58) with a three-month SPI. Furthermore, similar spatial patterns and temporal variations were found between the DSI and the three-month SPI, as well as the agro-meteorological drought observation data, when monitoring drought. Our analysis suggests that the DSI can be used for near-real-time drought monitoring with fine resolution across subtropical southwestern China, or other similar regions, based solely on MODIS-derived evapotranspiration/potential evapotranspiration and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data.  相似文献   

11.
Zhang  Jiquan  Okada  Norio  Tatano  Hirokazu  Hayakawa  Seiji 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(1):209-232
Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.  相似文献   

12.
青海高原冬季持续低温集中程度的气候特征及其成因   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
采用青海高原37个台站1961-2010年逐日气温数据, 着重讨论了持续3 d及以上低温过程集中程度的变化特征及其发生机制.结果表明: 低温集中度(LTCD)和集中期(LTCP)具有表征低温在时空场上非均匀性的较好分辨力; 近50 a青海高原冬季低温事件及其集中度均呈逐年明显减少趋势, 集中期明显提前; 利用REOF结合CAST方法分区并探讨了影响青海不同区域低温集中度的主要环流系统及因子, 发现影响柴达木盆地的主要系统为极涡和北大西洋涛动, 而青南牧区主要是由于局地气候反馈机制影响; 唐古拉地区的主要影响系统位于极区、 乌拉尔山地区及东部鄂霍次克海附近; 与东部农业区的相关体现为自西向东呈"+ - +"波列型分布, 反映冷空气不断东移过程中受东部高压阻塞, 在东部农业区堆积, 形成冷空气过程从而造成该地区集中度偏高.  相似文献   

13.
Discharge areas of carbonate fractured and karstified aquifers are a sensitive system of great interest, where frequently groundwater resources are tapped for drinking water supply. In geological settings affected by recent and/or active tectonics, mixing between fresh water coming from recharge areas and groundwater from deeper circuits, influenced by raising fluids, influences hydrogeochemistry. Surveys on major ions, trace elements and stable isotopes have been performed in the San Vittorino Plain (Central Italy), where the major source of drinking water for Rome is located (Peschiera Springs, mean discharge 18 m3 s?1, half of them tapped). Results of 21 springs revealed different contribution from recharge areas and deep flow paths, by increasing salinity and ion content, with particular references to Ca2+, HCO3 ? and SO4 2?. Three main groups, respectively, related to fresh waters from recharge areas, groundwater from deep contribution and a mixing group between them, have been identified. Water stable isotopes allow to identify the common origin from rainfall and a very steady contribution with seasons and year, due to the huge extent of recharge area (>1000 km2). Saturation Indexes gave insight on the contribution of deep fluids, mainly CO2 and H2S, which turned groundwater to undersaturated conditions, facilitating rock dissolution. By PHREEQC software, the mixing between two considered end-members has been simulated, evaluating about 25% of deep contribution in the basal springs of San Vittorino Plain. Chemistry of Peschiera spring reveals a very limited percentage of deep flow paths (10%), which can lead to slight hydrochemistry changes even in possible drought conditions, when discharge can decrease until 15 m3 s?1.  相似文献   

14.
Groundwater plays a key role in arid regions as the majority of water is supplied by it. Groundwater pollution is a major issue, because it is susceptible to contamination from land use and other anthropogenic impacts. A study was carried out to build a vulnerability map for the Ordos Plateau using the DRASTIC model in a GIS environment. The map was designed to show the areas of the highest potential for groundwater pollution based on hydrogeological conditions. Seven environmental parameters, such as depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, were incorporated into the DRASTIC model and GIS was used to create a groundwater vulnerability map by overlaying the available data. The results of this study show that 24.8 % of the study area has high pollution potential, 24.2 % has moderate pollution potential, 19.7 % has low pollution potential, and the remaining 31.3 % of the area has no risk of groundwater pollution. The regional distribution of nitrate is well correlated with the DRASTIC vulnerability index. In contrast to this, although the DRASTIC model indicated that the western part had no risk, nitrate concentrations were higher in some of these areas. In particular, higher nitrate concentrations were recorded along river valleys and around lakes, such as the Mulin River valley. This is mainly caused by the intensive agricultural development and favorable conditions for recharge along river valleys.  相似文献   

15.
This study aims to use spatial analyses and a geographic information system (GIS) to assess the environmental sensitivity for desertification in the north Sinai Peninsula, Egypt. Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach and the characteristics of the study area, a regional model was developed using GIS. Five main indicators of desertification including soil, climate, erosion, plant cover, and management were considered for estimating the environmental sensitivity to desertification. A spatial analyst extension Arc-GIS 10 software was used for matching the thematic layers and assessing the desertification index, of which the map of environmentally sensitive areas of the north Sinai Peninsula is produced. The obtained data reveals that 65 % of north Sinai is characterized by very severe sensitivity to desertification while the low sensitive one exhibits only 1.2 %. The moderately sensitive area occupies approximately 23 % of the study area. ETM+ and SPOT images are recommended to monitor sensitivity. The MEDALUS model was developed under the Egyptians to assess desertification sensitivity.  相似文献   

16.
This work was done on the representative section (230 cm) in Dora site which located in Baghdad in the central of the Mesopotamian Plain. Eleven soil samples were examined mineralogically and palynologically. Grain size analyses showed that silt is the higher fraction (61%), clay is the least (9%), whereas sand forms 30%. Translucent and opaque heavy minerals contributed 57% from the sand fraction, whereas the light minerals formed just 43%. The type of heavy minerals and its maturity defined four provenances—they are granitic, basic igneous and metamorphic rocks—that belong to the high lands of south Turkey and north of Iraq. The fourth provenance is the sedimentary rocks which are located north of Mesopotamian Plain around the Tigris River and their tributaries. Dinoflagellate within thin bed of marine origin clearly indicated the transgression of the Arabian Sea northward through Tigris and Euphrates valleys or high marine waves reached to Baghdad before 10,000 years P.B. approximately. This means that the marine sediments were also an additional source of the Mesopotamian Plain. Three specific climatic features are identified via palynological interpretation; a temperate-wet climate extended from 10,000 to 5,000 years P.B. followed by dry period extended from 5,000 to 3,500 years P.B. and the last climatic feature is characterized by oscillation of wet to dry periods which is dominant since 3,500 till now.  相似文献   

17.
Fire in forested areas can be regarded as an environmental disaster which is triggered by either natural forces or anthropogenic activities. Fires are one of the major hazards in forested and grassland areas in the north of Iran. Control of fire is difficult, but it is feasible to map fire risk by geospatial technologies and thereby minimize the frequency of fire occurrences and damages caused by fire. The fire risk models provide a suitable concept to understand characterization of fire risk. Some models are map based, and they combine effectively different forest fire–causing variables with remote sensing data in a GIS environment for identifying and mapping forest fire risk. In this study, Structural Fire Index, Fire Risk Index, and a new index called Hybrid Fire Index were used to delineate fire risk in northeastern Iran that is subjected to frequent forest fire. Vegetation moisture, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads, and vicinity to settlements were used as the factors influencing accidental fire starts. These indices were set up by assigning subjective weight values to the classes of the layers based on their sensitivity ratio to fire. Hot spots data derived from MODIS satellite sensor were used to validate the indices. Assessment of the indices with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that 76.7 % accuracy of the HFI outperformed the other two indices. According to the Hybrid Fire Index, 57.5 % of the study area is located under high-risk zone, 33 % in medium-risk zone, and the remaining 9.5 % area is located in low-risk zone.  相似文献   

18.
Since ancient times, water resources, mainly from melting snow in the high mountains, have nourished a large area of an oasis in the Kashi Plain in the western Terim Basin, China. In the last half-century, however, the rapid growth of population and the overexploitation of water, soil, and biological resources have led to drought, salinization, and desertification in the area, and consequently have hindered the development of sustainable agriculture. In this study, groundwater reservoirs with sustainable water supplies equivalent to 44.65×108 m3/year were identified, which has made it possible to implement several projects in the area to improve the ecological and agricultural environment. Three strategies are proposed for the integrated development and management of both surface-water and groundwater resources in the area. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

19.
The assessment of drought hazard impacts on wheat cultivation as a strategic crop in Iran is essential for making mitigation plans to reduce the impact of drought. Standardized precipitation index has gained importance in recent years as a potential drought indicator and is being used more frequently for assessment of drought hazard in many countries. In the present study, the calculated standardized precipitation index for 48 stations dataset in the 30-year time scale fulfilled 30 statistical matrices. The drought hazard index map was produced by sum overlaying the spatial representations of 30 statistical matrices and categorized into four levels of low, moderate, high, and very high, which demonstrated probability of drought occurrences of 10–20 %, 20–30 %, 30–40 %, and 40–50 %, respectively. Finally, after the general division of zonal statistics in drought hazard index map of Iran, major drought hazard zones were geographically classified into five zones. The statistical analysis showed a significant correlation (R 2?=?0.701 to 0.648) between drought occurrences and wheat cultivation including surface area and total production for these drought hazard zones.  相似文献   

20.
Recurrent drought events in the Palamu district of Jharkhand state and the magnitude of drought losses primarily toward agricultural production in this dominantly monocropped region indicate the continuing susceptibility of the society to drought. This paper presents a method for spatial, geoinformatics-based assessment of agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological drought hazard in Palamu district. It was hypothesized that the key climatic, biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought hazard were soils, geomorphology, drainage density, land use, and relief, whereas for meteorological drought hazard, it is rainfall, coefficient of variation of rainfall and for hydrological drought hazard, it is lithology, depth to water table, aquifer yield, and surface water bodies. The framework for the derivation of an agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological drought hazard map was created through the development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. A cumulative map created through spatial join of all the three types of drought provided a drought hazard scenario in totality. The area with different severity of drought hazards under cumulative drought hazards scenario (viz. very low (8.9?%), low (24.2?%), moderate (29.2?%), high (20.13), and very high (17.3?%)) revealed high drought proneness of the area and the usefulness of geoinformatics in better spatial prognosis of drought hazards.  相似文献   

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