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1.
M5 model tree based modelling of reference evapotranspiration   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This paper investigates the potential of M5 model tree based regression approach to model daily reference evapotranspiration using climatic data of Davis station maintained by California irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Four inputs including solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed whereas reference evapotranspiration calculated using a relation provided by the CIMIS was used as output. To compare the performance of M5 model tree in predicting the reference evapotranspiration, FAO–56 Penman–Monteith equation and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relation was used. A comparison of results suggests that M5 model tree approach works well in comparison to both FAO–56 and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relations. To judge the generalization capability of M5 model tree approach, model created by using the Davis data set was tested with the datasets of four different sites. Results from this part of the study suggest that M5 model tree could successfully be employed in modeling the reference evapotranspiration. Further, sensitivity analysis with M5 model tree approach suggests the suitability of solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed as input parameters to model the reference evapotranspiration Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Accurate and reliable river flow forecasts attained with data-intelligent models can provide significant information about future water resources management. In this study we employed a 50-model ensemble of three data-driven predictive models, namely the support vector regression (SVR), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) to forecast river flow data in a semiarid and ecologically significant mountainous region of Pailugou catchment in northwestern China. To attain stable and accurate forecast results, 50 different models were trained by randomly sampling the entire river flow data into 80% for training and 20% for testing subsets. To attain a complete evaluation of the ensemble-model based results, the global mean of six quantitative statistical performance evaluation measures: the coefficient of correlation (R), mean absolute relative error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS), relative RMSE, and the Willmott’s Index (WI), and Taylor diagrams, including skill scores relative to a persistence model, were selected to assess the performances of the developed predictive models. The results indicated that all of the averaged R value attained was higher than 0.900 and all of the averaged NS values were higher than 0.800, representing good performance of the SVR, MARS and M5Tree models applied in the 1-, 2- and 3-day ahead modeling horizon, and this also accorded with the deductions made through an assessment of the Willmott’s Index. However, the M5Tree model outperformed both the SVR and MARS models (with NS?=?0.917 vs. 0.904 and 0.901 for 1-day, 0.893 vs. 0.854 and 0.845 for 2-day, and 0.850 vs. 0.828 and 0.810 for 3-day forecasting horizons, respectively), which was in concurrence with the high value of WI. Therefore, based on the ensemble of 50 models, the performance of the M5Tree can be considered as superior to the SVR and MARS models when applied in a problem of river flow forecasting at multiple forecast horizon. A detailed comparison of the overall performance of all three models evaluated through Taylor diagrams and boxplots indicated that the 1-day ahead forecasting results were more accurate for all of the predictive models compared to the 2- and 3-day ahead forecasting horizons. Data-intelligent models designed in this study indicate that the M5Tree method could successfully be explored for short-term river flow forecasting in semiarid mountainous regions, which may have useful implications in water resources management, ecological sustainability and assessment of river systems.  相似文献   

3.
太湖流域1999年特大洪水和对防洪规划的思考   总被引：11，自引：10，他引：1  
吴泰来 《湖泊科学》2000,12(1):6-11
１９９９年太湖流域梅雨期自６月７日入梅,历时４３ｄ,流域面平均梅雨总量６７０ｍｍ,是常年的３倍,致使流域发生了本世纪以来的特大洪水。项平均连续最大７ｄ,１５ｄ,３０ｄ,４５ｄ、６０ｄ,９０ｄ雨量均超过历史暴雨实测最大值,接近或超过了百年一遇。流域降雨空间分布南部大于北部,浙西区、湖区、杭嘉湖区和浦东、浦西区明显大于湖西区和武澄锡区。太湖最高水位达到５．０８ｍ,超达１９９１年最高历史水位０．２９ｍ。  相似文献   

4.
Sediment loads have been measured in six Swiss mountain torrents over several decades. Most of these torrent catchments are situated in the prealpine belt. They have catchment areas of between 0·5 and 1·7 km2. Bedslopes at the measuring sites vary between 5 and 17 per cent, and peak discharges up to 12 m3 s−1 have been recorded. Geophone sensors installed in the Erlenbach stream allow bedload transport activity to be monitored and sediment volumes associated with each flood event to be determined. A detailed analysis of the measurements in this stream results in an empirical equation in which the sediment load per flood event is expressed as a function of the effective runoff volume (discharges above the threshold for bedload motion) and of the normalized peak discharge. For the total of 143 investigated flood events in the Erlenbach stream, the deviation of the predicted from the measured value is within a factor of two for more than two-thirds of all events. A distinction can be made between summer and winter events in analysing the bedload transport events. The summer events, mainly caused by thunderstorms, transport comparatively larger sediment loads than the winter events. For the other investigated streams, the periods of the deposited sediment volume surveys cover in general several flood events. An analysis is performed analogous to that for the Erlenbach stream. The sediment loads show a similar dependency on the two factors effective runoff volume and normalized peak discharge. However, the exponents of these factors in the power law expressions differ from stream to stream. A comparison of the investigated stream shows that some of the variation can be explained by considering the bedslope above the measuring site. The inclusion of a bedslope factor is in agreement with laboratory investigations on bedload transport. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

The potential of the most recent pre-processing tool, namely, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), is examined for providing AI models (artificial neural network, ANN; M5-model tree, M5-MT; and multivariate adaptive regression spline, MARS) with more informative input–output data and, thence, evaluate their forecasting accuracy. A 130-year inflow dataset for Aswan High Dam, Egypt, is considered for training, validating and testing the proposed models to forecast the reservoir inflow up to six months ahead. The results show that, after the pre-processing analysis, there is a significant enhancement in the forecasting accuracy. The MARS model combined with CEEMDAN gave superior performance compared to the other models – CEEMDAN-ANN and CEEMDAN-M5-MT – with an increase in accuracy of, respectively, about 13–25% and 6–20% in terms of the root mean square error.  相似文献   

6.
The Ardebil plain, which is located in northwest Iran, has been faced with a recent and severe decline in groundwater level caused by a decrease of precipitation, successive long‐term droughts, and overexploitation of groundwater for irrigating the farmlands. Predictions of groundwater levels can help planners to deal with persistent water deficiencies. In this study, the support vector regression (SVR) and M5 decision tree models were used to predict the groundwater level in Ardebil plain. The monthly groundwater level data from 24 piezometers for a 17‐year period (1997 to 2013) were used for training and test of models. The model inputs included the groundwater levels of previous months, the volume of entering precipitation into every cell, and the discharge of wells. The model output was the groundwater level in the current month. In order to evaluate the performance of models, the correlation coefficient (R) and the root‐mean‐square error criteria were used. The results indicated that both SVR and M5 decision tree models performed well for the prediction of groundwater level in the Ardebil plain. However, the results obtained from the M5 decision tree model are more straightforward, more easily applied, and simpler to interpret than those from the SVR. The highest accuracy was obtained using the SVR model to predict the groundwater level from the Ghareh Hasanloo and Khalifeloo piezometers with R = 0.996 and R = 0.983, respectively.  相似文献   

7.
The field hydrology model DRAINMOD integrated with Arc Hydro in geographical information system (GIS) framework (Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD) was used to simulate the hydrological response of a coastal watershed in southeast Sweden. Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD uses a distributed approach to route water from each field edge to the watershed outlet. In the framework the Arc Hydro data model was used to describe the stream network in the watershed and to connect the individual simulated DRAINMOD‐field outflow time series from each plot using Arc Hydro schema‐links features, which were summed at Arc Hydro schema‐nodes features along the stream network to generate the stream network flow. Hydrology data collected during six periods between 2003 and 2008 were used to test Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD and its performance was evaluated by considering uncertainties in model inputs using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE estimates obtained (uncertainty bands 5% and 95%) agreed satisfactorily with measured monthly discharges. The percentage of time in which the observed discharges were bracketed by the uncertainty bands was 88% in calibration periods and 75% in validation periods. Although monthly time step simulations showed good agreement with observed discharges during the two main discharge events in spring, the contradictory daily time step results indicate that the watershed response simulations on a daily basis need to be improved. The uncertainty analysis showed that in periods of higher discharge, such as spring periods, the uncertainty in prediction was higher. It is important to note that these uncertainty estimations using the GLUE procedure include the uncertainties in measured discharge values, model inputs, boundary conditions and model structures. It was estimated that stream baseflow represented 42% of the total watershed discharge, but further research is needed to confirm this. These results show that the new Arc Hydro–DRAINMOD framework is applicable for predicting discharge from artificially drained watersheds in southeast Sweden. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
In this research, the simulation of Urmia Lake water level fluctuation by means of two models was applied. For this, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Neural Wavelet Network (NWN) models that conjugated both the wavelet function and ANN, developed for simulating the Urmia Lake water level fluctuation. The yearly data of rainfall, temperature and discharge to the Urmia Lake and water level fluctuation were used. Urmia Lake is the biggest and the hyper saline lake in Iran. The outcome of the SVM based models are compared with the NWN. The results of SVM model performs better than NWN and offered a practical solution to the problem of water level fluctuation predictions. Analysis results showed that the optimal situation occurred with use of precipitation, temperature and discharge for all station and water level fluctuations at the lag time of one year (RMSEs) of 0.23, 0.41 m obtained by SVM, NWN, respectively, and SSEs of 0.43, 1.33 and R 2 of 0.97, 0 obtained by SVM, NWN, respectively. The results of SVM model show better accuracy in comparison with the NWN model.  相似文献   

9.
The response of sediment discharge rate to the following four ecohydrological factors: temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET), and stream flow was evaluated by conducting wavelet analysis on Luergou small catchment data ranging from 1982 to 2000. For sediment discharge rate, there was an overall trend of reduction that included a periodic oscillation of 6 to 7 years per cycle. Rainfall also had an overall trend of reduction that included two periodic oscillations of 7 years per cycle and 2 years per cycle, respectively. Stream flow had the same trend as rainfall but had one periodic oscillation of 6 to 7 years per cycle. In contrast with rainfall and stream flow, the trends for temperature and ET each showed an overall increasing tendency, and both had the same two periodic oscillations of 6 to 7 years per cycle and 4 years per cycle, respectively. The sediment discharge rate had significant relationships with the four ecohydrological factors, with stream flow and rainfall having positive correlations, while ET and temperature had negative correlations. The correlation between ET and sediment discharge rate became stronger when ET was compared to the sediment discharge rate of the following year. The relationship between sediment discharge rate and the four ecohydrological factors was further expressed by the multi-linear regression model that was constructed, which makes sediment discharge rate a function of stream flow, rainfall, ET, and temperature.  相似文献   

10.
A groundwater plume containing high concentrations of pharmaceutical compounds, mainly sulfonamides, barbiturates, and ethyl urethane, in addition to chlorinated ethenes and benzene was investigated. The contamination originating from a former pharmaceutical industry discharges into a multilayered aquifer system and a downgradient stream. In this study, geological and hydrogeological data were integrated into a numerical flow model to examine identified trends using statistical approaches, including principal component analysis and hierarchal cluster analysis. A joint interpretation of the groundwater flow paths and contaminant concentrations in the different compartments (i.e., groundwater and hyporheic zone) provided insight on the transport processes of the different contaminant plumes to the stream. The analysis of historical groundwater concentrations of pharmaceutical compounds at the site suggested these compounds are slowly degrading. The pharmaceutical compounds migrate in both a deep semiconfined aquifer, as well as in the shallow unconfined aquifer, and enter the stream along a 2-km stretch. This contrasted with the chlorinated ethenes, which mainly discharge to the stream as a focused plume from the unconfined aquifer. The integrated approach developed here, combining groundwater flow modeling and statistical analyses of the contaminant concentration data collected in groundwater and the hyporheic zone, lead to an improved understanding of the observed distribution of contaminants in the unconfined and semiconfined aquifers, and thus to their discharge to the stream. This approach is particularly relevant for large and long-lasting contaminant sources and plumes, such as abandoned landfills and industrial production sites, where field investigations may be very expensive.  相似文献   

11.
A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km2), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year?1 and 38 938 t year?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The purpose of this paper is to apply “Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)” model to assess the impacts of climate change on stream discharge and sediment yield from Song Cau watershed in Northern Viet Nam. Three climate change scenarios B1, B2, and A2; representing low, medium, and high levels of greenhouse gas emission, respectively, were considered in this study. The highest changes in stream discharge (up to 11.4%) and sediment load (15.3%) can be expected in wet season in 2050s according to the high emission scenario (A2), while for the low emission scenario the corresponding changes equal to 8.8% and 12.6%. The results show that the stream discharge is likely to increase in the future during the wet season with increasing threats of sedimentation.  相似文献   

13.
Heavy winter rainfall produces double‐peak hydrographs at the Slapton Wood catchment, Devon, UK. The first peak is saturation‐excess overland flow in the hillslope hollows and the second (i.e. the delayed peak) is subsurface stormflow. The physically‐based spatially‐distributed model SHETRAN is used to try to improve the understanding of the processes that cause the double peaks. A three‐stage (multi‐scale) approach to calibration is used: (1) water balance validation for vertical one‐dimensional flow at arable, grassland and woodland plots; (2) two‐dimensional flow for cross‐sections cutting across the stream valley; and (3) three‐dimensional flow in the full catchment. The main data are for rainfall, stream discharge, evaporation, soil water potential and phreatic surface level. At each scale there was successful comparison with measured responses, using as far as possible parameter values from measurements. There was some calibration but all calibrated values at one scale were used at a larger scale. A large proportion of the subsurface runoff enters the stream from three dry valleys (hillslope hollows), and previous studies have suggested convergence of the water in the three large hollows as being the major mechanism for the production of the delayed peaks. The SHETRAN modelling suggests that the hillslopes that drain directly into the stream are also involved in producing the delayed discharges. The model shows how in the summer most of the catchment is hydraulically disconnected from the stream. In the autumn the catchment eventually ‘wets up’ and shallow subsurface flows are produced, with water deflected laterally along the soil‐bedrock interface producing the delayed peak in the stream hydrograph. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The importance of riparian tree cover in reducing energy inputs to streams is increasingly recognized in schemes to mitigate climate change effects and protect freshwater ecosystems. Assessing different riparian management strategies requires catchment‐scale understanding of how different planting scenarios would affect the stream energy balance, coupled with a quantitative assessment of spatial patterns of streamflow generation. Here, we use the physically based MIKE SHE model to integrate simulations of catchment‐scale run‐off generation and in‐stream hydraulics with a heat transfer model. This was calibrated to model the spatio‐temporal distribution of hourly stream water temperature during warm low flow periods in a Scottish salmon stream. The model was explored as a “proof of concept” for a tool to investigate the effects of riparian management on high stream water temperatures that could affect juvenile Atlantic salmon. Uncertainty was incorporated into the assessment using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach. Results showed that by decreasing both the warming (daylight hours) and the cooling (night‐time hours) rates, forest cover leads to a reduction of the temperature range (with a delay of the time to peak by up to 2 hr) and can therefore be effectively used to moderate projected climate change effects. The modelling presented here facilitated the quantification of potential mitigating effects of alternative riparian management strategies and provided a valuable tool that has potential to be utilized as an evidence base for catchment management guidance.  相似文献   

15.
Bed load transport rate was measured in ten self-formed small-scale gravel braided streams developed in a laboratory flume at several different values of steady discharge and flume gradient. The streams are approximate Froude models of typical prototype braided streams but of no particular river. Slight viscous effects may be present in the models because particle Reynolds numbers are close to 70. Total bed load discharge was measured every fifteen minutes throughout each 60 hour run. In addition, 80 channel cross-sections were measured in each run to establish the average channel geometry. Total bed load transport rate correlates well with total discharge and total stream power, although at a given stream power bed load discharge is greater when braiding is less intense and the width/depth ratio is lower. Analysis using unit stream power and cross-section average bed shear stress reveals that the laboratory data conform to existing empirical bed load transport relationships. However, comparison with field data from gravel-bed rivers shows discrepancies that may be due to differences in bed material size gradation and bed sediment structure. At constant discharge, wide fluctuations in bed load discharge occur with some regularity. Periods range from 2 to 10 hours in the models, which is equivalent to several tens of hours in a prototype. The presence of these long-period fluctuations compounds the problems of field measurement of bed load in braided streams.  相似文献   

16.
川滇分区地震烈度衰减特征研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
董曼  程佳  魏文薪  陈通 《震灾防御技术》2015,10(S1):760-769
考虑到不同区域地震烈度衰减规律的差异性,本文通过分析川滇地区地震空间分布、震害及烈度分布特征,搜集并整理了1900年以来川滇地区的140个5级以上地震案例,利用联合椭圆衰减模型,结合川滇地区的地质构造特征,建立了川滇分区地震烈度衰减关系。对比结果表明：不同区域的地震烈度衰减存在显著差异,尤其是在M=5和M=7级时区域差别明显;同时,与已有成果的对比结果也可看出,滇西地区在M=7级时近场烈度明显偏低,而川西北及滇中地区在M=5级时虽与中国西部地区基本一致,但也均低于其它分区。上述结果对川滇地区地震灾害快速评估和地震应急具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

17.
Y. Wang  K. Brubaker 《水文研究》2014,28(9):3388-3403
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is widely used in modeling water quantity and quality. In the original SWAT, groundwater flow is calculated using a linear‐reservoir model, with outflow proportional to storage. However, observations show that this assumption is not always applicable; for example, macropores in Karst formations would seriously affect the groundwater behavior. A nonlinear groundwater algorithm was introduced in a new version of the SWAT model, called ISWAT. The Shenandoah Valley area in the Eastern U.S., which includes a number of geologic formations including Karst, was selected to test the modified ISWAT model. Parameter ESTimation (PEST) was coupled with ISWAT to auto‐calibrate the nonlinear parameter values. Ten years of record at 15 stream gauges were used to calibrate the model. The nonlinear ISWAT, statistically and visually, performed better in stream discharge estimation especially during baseflow recession and low‐flow periods. This indicated that the nonlinear algorithm can better represent groundwater behavior. The coupled ISWAT‐PEST approach can be used in future stream discharge simulation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The purpose of the present paper is to analyse factors controlling total concentration and aqueous speciation of aluminium in the Große Ohe River, using a thermodynamic equilibrium model and a mixing approach. A model compound for humic substances is derived on the basis of the relation between anion deficit and the organic carbon content in the river as well as literature data. An equilibrium speciation model for aluminium is set up, considering this model compound and relevant inorganic solutes. Although the model cannot be verified directly, its results may be viewed as qualitatively correct. Applying the model to measured stream water samples highlights that aqueous speciation of aluminium is mainly controlled by the pH value and discharge and that free aluminium concentrations reach clearly toxic levels during acidic episodes. Comparing measured concentrations of sulfate and H+ and calculated concentrations of Al3+ with solubility curves of gibbsite like minerals and jurbanite clearly shows that total aluminium concentrations are not controlled by equilibria with these mineral phases alone. The observed relationship can be better explained from a mixture of two distinct waters, representing lowflow and highflow chemistry, and the resulting equilibrium concentrations. This indicates that total aluminium concentration, in particular during high discharge events, is mainly controlled by the mixture of waters with differing chemistry and flowpaths.  相似文献   

19.
Hydrologic models have increasingly been used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models are also plagued by uncertainty, however, and parameter equifinality is a common concern. Physically‐based, spatially‐distributed hydrologic models must therefore be tested with high‐quality experimental data describing a multitude of concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. This study takes a novel approach by not only examining the ability of a pre‐calibrated model to realistically simulate watershed outlet flows over a four year period, but a multitude of spatially‐extensive, internal catchment process observations not previously evaluated, including: continuous groundwater dynamics, instantaneous stream and road network flows, and accumulation and melt period spatial snow distributions. Many hydrologic model evaluations are only on the comparison of predicted and observed discharge at a catchment outlet and remain in the ‘infant stage’ in terms of model testing. This study, on the other hand, tests the internal spatial predictions of a distributed model with a range of field observations over a wide range of hydroclimatic conditions. Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuing efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data collection. Road and stream network flows were generally well simulated for a range of hydrologic conditions, and snowpack spatial distributions were well simulated for one of two years examined. The spatial variability of groundwater dynamics was effectively simulated, except at locations where strong stream–groundwater interactions exist. Model simulations overall were quite successful in realistically simulating the spatiotemporal variability of internal catchment processes in the watershed, but the premature onset of simulated snowmelt for one of the simulation years has prompted further work in model development. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Chen X 《Ground water》2001,39(5):721-728
Analysis of stream-aquifer interaction due to ground water extraction has traditionally focused on the determination of the amount of water depleted in the stream. Less attention has been paid to the movement of infiltrated stream water inside aquifer, particularly for agricultural areas. This paper presents a method of using particle-tracking techniques to evaluate the transport of the leaked stream water in the nearby aquifers. Simple stream-aquifer conditions are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the analysis. Travel times, pathlines, and influence zones of stream water were determined between a stream and nearby pumping wells for seasonal ground water extraction areas. When water quantity is a concern, the analyses provide additional information about stream depletion; when water quality is an issue, they offer information for wellhead protection. Analyses were conducted for transient conditions, and both pumping and nonpumping periods were considered. According to the results from the simulation examples, migration of infiltrated stream water into the nearby aquifers is generally slow and most infiltrated stream water does not arrive at the pumping well at the end of a 90-day irrigation season. Infiltrated stream water may remain in the aquifer for several years before arriving at the pumping well. For aquifers with a regional hydraulic gradient toward streams, part of the infiltrated stream water may discharge back to streams during a recovery period.  相似文献   

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