共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Tameshige Tsukuda 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,128(1-2):261-279
To detect any temporal change in coda-Q associated with an earthquake of M 6.2, digitized data from analog magnetic records of microearthquakes for a small confined region just around its hypocenter have been processed, with special attention to measuring errors. The M 6.2 earthquake took place at the Misasa town, Tottori Prefecture, in southwest Japan with preceding anomalous seismicity changes. TheQ values were elevated 20% around three years before the M 6.2 event for frequencies of 5 to 20 Hz, and tended to decrease around two years before. Data with high quality show undulated temporal variation with a period of 5–6 years before the earthquake, which is correlated with the regional seismic activity. There is a possibility that the observedQ change stands for precursory effect of the medium-scale earthquake. The aftershock sequence also shows an undulated temporal variation ofQ with a period of 150 days for around 10Hz, correlating also with the seismic activity. The fracturing processes by numerous microearthquakes may be responsible for the attenuation property of randomly scattered seismic waves. 相似文献
2.
Mehmet Ergin Mustafa Aktar Serdar Özalaybey Mustafa C. Tapirdamaz Oguz Selvi Adil Tarancioglu 《Journal of Seismology》2009,13(4):633-646
A moderate-size earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred on 3 February 2002 (07:11:28 GMT) in the Sultanda??-Çay region of southwest Turkey. The mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock of Mw = 6.0 just 2 h after the mainshock, at 09:26:49 GMT. A temporary seismic network of 27 vertical component seismometers was installed to monitor aftershock activity. One thousand sixty nine aftershocks (0.2 < ML < 3.3) were recorded during the period from 5 to 10 February 2002. We analyzed the P and S arrival times and P wave first motion data to obtain high-quality hypocenters and focal mechanisms, which revealed fine details of the fault zone. We infer that the mainshock has ruptured a segment of the Sultanda? Fault Zone that is approximately 37 km long and 7 km wide at depth. The average slip over the rupture plane during the mainshock is estimated to be 32 cm. The linear distribution of the aftershocks and the location of the mainshock epicenter suggest that rupture has initiated in the eastern bending of the fault and propagated unilaterally to the west. The majority of fault plane solutions indicate E–W to ESE–WNW striking oblique–normal faulting mechanisms with an average dip angle of 62° N ± 10° . The high-resolution aftershock seismicity image also shows that faulting involved a complex array of synthetic and possibly antithetic structures during the evolution of the aftershock sequence. The steady increase of the b value towards the west implies that the highest moment release of the mainshock occurred to the west of the epicenter. The study clearly shows the activation of the WNW–ESE-trending Sultanda? Fault Zone along the southern margin of the Ak?ehir-Afyon Graben (AAG). The westernmost end of the aftershock activity corresponds to a structurally complex zone distinct from the main rupture. It is characterized by both ENE–WSW- and NNE–SSW-trending oblique-slip normal faulting mechanisms, the latter being associated with the NNE–SSW-trending Karam?k Graben. The intersection of these two grabens, AAG and Karam?k Graben, provides abundant faults available for failure in this region. The occurrence pattern of large events in recent years indicates a possible migration of earthquakes from east to west. Thus, we conclude that this has an important implication for earthquake hazard for the city of Afyon, which lies along the same fault line and only 20 km west of the termination point of the aftershock zone. 相似文献
3.
The May 20, 1986, Hualien earthquake sequence occurred on the northeastern coast of Taiwan. TheM=6.1 (GS mb) mainshock was followed by a large number of closely-clustered aftershocks with the largest being anM=5.5 event. One seismic station, TWD of the Taiwan Telemetered Seismographic Network, is located in the surface projection of the source region and provides excellent recordings of the entire earthquake sequence. These recordings, plus events occurring in the same source area preceding the mainshock, offer a unique opportunity to study the spatial and temporal variations of codaQ in a region of active subduction. A simple technique is devised that uses the envelope of the coda waveform to enable a quick determination of the codaQ from drum records. For recordings with a peak power at about 8 Hz, the following findings have been obtained: 1. The ambient codaQ near an active subduction region was as low as 145; 2. There was no significant decrease in codaQ within the period beginning one year and four months prior to the mainshock; 3. There was a significant drop of codaQ immediately after the mainshock; this drop lasted approximately two days before returning to the ambient level; 4. CodaQ values varied with focal depth. 相似文献
4.
A temporal and spatial change of codaQ
–1 associated with the occurrence of the North Palm Springs earthquake of July 8, 1986 was studied by using 242 small local earthquakes in the vicinity of the mainshock. We found that the codaQ
–1 of earthquakes which occurred before the mainshock was significantly higher than that of the aftershocks in the mainshock area while the codaQ
–1 for the surrounding area remained almost constant throughout 1986. CodaQ
–1 was determined separately for the lapse time windows of 10 to 20 sec. and 15 to 40 sec. for the period from 1981 to 1987. The result for the time window 10 to 20 sec. showed a peak in codaQ
–1 before the time of mainshock at all frequencies. The peak appeared earlier at lower frequencies. There was no significant change in codaQ
–1 for the time window 15 to 40 sec., probably because the change was restricted to a small area. 相似文献
5.
We report results from a detailed study of seismicity in central Kamchatka for the period from 1960 to 1997 using a modified
traditional approach. The basic elements of this approach include (a) segmentation of the seismic region concerned (the Kronotskii
and Shipunskii geoblocks, the continental slope and offshore blocks), (b) studying the variation in the rate of M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes and in the amount of seismic energy release over time, (c) studying the seismicity variations, (d)
separate estimates of earthquake recurrence for depths of 0–50 and 50–100 km. As a result, besides corroborating the fact
that a quiescence occurred before the December 5, 1997, M = 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake, we also found a relationship between the start of the quiescence and the position of the seismic
zone with respect to the rupture initiation. The earliest date of the quiescence (decreasing seismicity rate and seismic energy
release) was due to the M = 4.5–7.0 earthquakes at depths of 0–100 km in the Kronotskii geoblock (8–9 years prior to the earthquake). The intermediate
start of the quiescence was due to distant seismic zones of the Shipunskii geoblock and the circular zone using the RTL method, combining the Shipunskii and Kronotskii geoblocks (6 years). Based on the low magnitude seismicity (M≥2.6) at depths of 0–70 km in the southwestern part of the epicentral zone (50–100 km from the mainshock epicenter), the quiescence
was inferred to have occurred a little over 3 years (40 months) before the mainshock time and a little over 2 years (25 months)
in the immediate vicinity of the epicenter (0–50 km). These results enable a more reliable identification of other types of
geophysical precursors during seismic quiescences before disastrous earthquakes. 相似文献
6.
为深度剖析2021年云南漾濞MS6.4地震对周围断层的影响以及地震序列间的静态库仑应力影响关系,文章基于主震的破裂模型和Okada给出位移对空间偏导数的解析式,首先计算了主震在周围断层上产生的静态库仑破裂应力,结果表明维西—乔后断裂带中段、澜沧江断裂带北端、红河断裂带北端以及怒江断裂带中段库仑应力均有千帕量级的增加。其次,计算了此次地震对周围地区产生的水平应力场及位移场,发现震中东西两侧物质向外流出,南北两侧向震中汇聚;震中南北两侧沉降,东西两侧隆升;产生的应力场呈EW向挤压,NS向拉张,在一定程度上抵消了该区域背景构造应力场。最后计算了前震-主震-余震序列间的静态库仑应力影响,结果表明前震产生的静态库仑应力促进了主震的发生;在2 km、13 km和18.5 km深度附近,触发的余震(前震和主震产生的库仑应力变化为正)比例很高,但在7 km深度处(同震破裂模型中滑移量最大)大部分余震分布在库仑应力负值区(应力影区),考虑到该深度余震与主震震源机制相差较大,因此通过模拟最易错动的断层面作为余震接受断层面,从而计算出最大静态库仑破裂应力,发现应力影区的余震仍有被触发的... 相似文献
7.
2022年1月8日,青海省海北藏族自治州门源县发生MS6.9地震,震中位于青藏高原东北缘地区祁连—海原断裂带的冷龙岭断裂和托勒山断裂构造转换区域(37.77°N,101.26°E)。震后野外现场考察结果表明,此次地震形成的同震地表破裂带总长度约为26 km,整体走向NWW向,破裂性质以左旋走滑局部逆冲为主。断层错动造成的破坏形式以雁列式组合的张裂隙、张剪裂隙、挤压鼓包、断层陡坎等为主。其中,道河至硫磺沟段地表破裂最为强烈,规模大且连续性好,造成的震害最为显著,地表破裂规模向东、西两端逐渐衰减。破裂带穿过区域内多条河流,造成显著的冰面破裂变形,并沿河岸形成一系列的边坡崩塌、滚石等地质灾害。综合破裂带及震害规模分析,宏观震中位于道河至硫磺沟地区。 相似文献
8.
Keiichi Tadokoro Masataka Ando Şerif Bariş Kin'ya Nishigami Mamoru Nakamura S. Balamir Ücer Akihiko Ito Yoshimori Honkura A. Mete Işikara 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(3):411-417
The North Anatolian fault zone that ruptured during the mainshock of theM 7.4 Kocaeli (Izmit) earthquake of 17 August 1999 has beenmonitored using S wave splitting, in order to test a hypothesisproposed by Tadokoro et al. (1999). This idea is based on the observationof the M 7.2 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, Japan.After the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, a temporal change was detectedin the direction of faster shear wave polarization in 2–3 years after the mainshock (Tadokoro, 1999). Four seismic stations were installed within andnear the fault zone at Kizanlik where the fault offset was 1.5 m, about80 km to the east of the epicenter of the Kocaeli earthquake. Theobservation period was from August 30 to October 27, 1999. Preliminaryresult shows that the average directions of faster shear wave polarization attwo stations were roughly parallel to the fault strike. We expect that thedirection of faster shear wave polarization will change to the same directionas the regional tectonic stress reflecting fault healing process. We havealready carried out a repeated aftershock observation at the same site in2000 for monitoring the fault healing process. 相似文献
9.
采用双差定位方法,利用中国地震台网的数据对2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震的余震序列进行了重新定位。截至2017年8月14日16时,共获得209个余震的重新定位结果。结果显示,余震主要呈近EW向或NWW向分布,余震区长约50km,宽约17km。余震分布在主震的西侧,推断此次地震单侧破裂。余震震源深度为1～25km,其中,震级较大余震深度为8～17km。精河地震序列的余震活动随时间呈起伏状衰减,震后2天内比较活跃,此后出现较快衰减。随时间推移,余震区呈现中西部衰减慢、东部衰减快的特点。此次地震震中距2011年精河5.0级地震震中21km,相比2011年精河地震,其震源更深,震级更大,但震源机制解相近,均为逆冲型。结合区域构造背景分析认为,库松木契克山前断裂为此次地震发震构造的可能性较大。 相似文献
10.
A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived
first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic
error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering
method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q
m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q
m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q
m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q
m
versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q
m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q
m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q
m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q
m after the M=5.1 event is 204.
Foundation item: State Key Project of Science and Technology during the Tenth Five-year Plan (2004BA601B01-03-01). 相似文献
11.
2014年2月12日在新疆于田县发生了MS7.3地震,主震前一天在震区发生了MS5.4前震,震后余震活动频繁,由于震区台站十分稀疏和不均匀、地壳速度结构复杂,台网常规定位结果精度有限,很难从中获得序列的空间分布特征和活动趋势的正确认识.本文首先利用位于震区附近的于田地震台5年记录的远震波形数据,采用接收函数方法研究了震区附近的地壳结构,建立了震源区的地壳速度模型.在此基础上,联合震相到时和方位角对2014年于田MS7.3地震序列(从2014年02月11日-2014年04月30日,共计577次地震)进行了重新绝对定位.结果显示,(1) 重定位后的前震和主震震中位置明显向地表破裂带及其附近的阿尔金分支断裂(南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂)靠近,两者相距5.4 km,主震位置为36.076°N、82.576°E,震源深度为22 km, 前震位置为36.055°N、82.522°E,震源深度为19 km;(2) 本文重定位结果显示,余震序列沿NEE-SWW展布,优势分布长度约73 km、宽度约16 km,平均震源深度为14.8 km,其中77%的余震分布在地表破裂带的西南端,这部分余震中少数沿阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂分布,绝大多数沿北东东向的南肖尔库勒断裂分布,位于地表破裂带东北端的余震沿阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂分布,但发生在地表破裂带的余震极少;重定位后,位于地表破裂带西南侧的震中分布由台网目录的近南北向变为北东向,与地表破裂带、南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂走向一致;(3) 沿重定位剖面的地震分布,可推断位于地表破裂带西南段的南肖尔库勒断裂与位于北东段的阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂倾向反向,南肖尔库勒断裂的倾向为SE,阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂的倾向为NW,这与本次地震野外考察得到的断裂性质一致.综合重定位结果、地表破裂带分布、震源机制解、南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂的性质认为,2014年于田MS7.3地震的发震构造为阿尔金断裂西南尾段的两条分支断裂——南肖尔库勒断裂和阿什库勒-肖尔库勒断裂. 相似文献
12.
强震发生前震源系统可能处于不稳定状态,在这种情况下,震中附近地区的地震活动或许会对微小的应力变化敏感.地球自转会在震源断层面上引起应力,地球自转速率变化也会在震源断层面上引起应力变化.由于地球自转速率变化非常微小,在震源断层面上引起应力变化也非常微弱,如果震源区处于极不稳定状态,这种微弱的应力变化或许会激发一些地震活动.这些被激发的地震活动将会表现出与地球自转速率变化的显著相关性.为了考察2011年3月11日日本本州9.1地震发生前震中附近地区是否存在与地球自转速率变化显著相关的地震活动,选取2000年1月-2011年2月M≥5.0地震集中活动区域为研究区域,根据USGS发布的1991年1月-2011年2月的地震目录,利用舒斯特(Schuster)统计检验方法,研究了地球自转与本州M_W9.1地震前发生的地震活动之间的相关性.检验结果用P值来评估,P值越低表示相关性越显著.结果如下:在研究区内5.4≤M≤6.9地震的P值的时间变化显示本州M_W9.1地震前从2009年6月-2010年1月存在低于0.5%的P值.当P值达最低值时,约82%的5.4≤M≤6.9地震发生在地球自转速率季节性变化的加速期,显示出了地震活动与地球自转速率加速之间的显著相关性.取3°×3°的空间窗,以0.1°的步长沿经度和纬度滑动对P值进行空间扫描,可以得到P值的空间分布.扫描区域远大于研究区,经纬度范围为(33°N-43°N,138°E-147°E).在P值的空间分布图上,可发现在P值处于最低值期间,低于0.5%的P值集中分布在研究区的北部,本州M_W9.1地震震中位于这个低P值区的边缘.因此,本州M_W9.1地震前在其破裂区内存在显著的与地球自转相关的地震活动现象,说明破裂区内存在非常不稳定的地区. 相似文献
13.
MA Haiping WANG Qian ZHANG Bo WU Shanyi WANG Pengtao DOU Xiying LI Minjuan 《中国地震研究》2020,34(2):210-218
To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides, the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017, indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EW-direction linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017, and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake, indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake. 相似文献
14.
系统总结2020年7月23日西藏尼玛M_S 6.6地震的构造背景、震源参数、序列特征和震前异常特征。此次M_S 6.6地震发生在依布茶卡—日干配错断裂分支附近,震源机制解显示为近NS向拉张型破裂,与羌塘块体的主要变形特征一致。根据M—t图、频次图、能量释放、最大与次大地震震级差、b值、h值等结果进行分析,可知:①此次尼玛地震序列为一次主震—余震型序列,且余震衰减迅速;②地震发生在西藏西部地区,震中500 km范围内无地球物理观测测项,震前异常以地震活动性参数异常为主,并存在1项热红外异常;③异常均在震前半年内出现,其中热红外异常于震前一周出现。对这些异常进行详细总结,可为西藏西部地区的强震短临预报积累经验。 相似文献
15.
16.
中强地震序列的主震发生后,短时间内受台站距震中较远、尾波干扰和波形重叠等因素的影响,往往会遗漏大量的地震,而地震目录的完整性会直接影响到震后趋势判定和余震序列特征分析的科学性和可靠性。本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对2017年8月1～12日的连续波形进行扫描计算,检测九寨沟MS7.0地震前后遗漏的地震事件,选取台网目录中信噪比较高的1033个地震事件作为模板,在主震前7天至震后5天期间识别出4854个检测地震事件,为台网可定位目录的3.3倍,除去对台网单台地震事件的修正外,还检测到1797个遗漏地震事件,将完备震级从1.6级降低到1.4级。基于补充了遗漏地震的完整地震目录,对2017年8月8日九寨沟MS7.0地震序列活动特征进行分析。结果表明,前震序列在主震前短时间内出现了地震活动的密集增强,b值也显示为低值状态,可能是深部断层发生破裂之前的加速蠕动的结果。随着时间的推移,余震序列的完备震级逐渐下降并趋于稳定,b值存在缓慢升高的趋势,未来较长时期内余震序列仍将处于持续衰减的状态。 相似文献
17.
2014年2月12日新疆于田发生MS7.3地震,该震前1天曾发生MS5.4前震,震后余震活动频繁.截止到2月20日12时,该地震序列记录到4000多次余震,最大余震为2月12日MS5.7地震,序列类型为前震—主震—余震型.该地震前震的b值明显低于该区域正常活动的b值和余震的b值.这次地震位于西昆仑断裂带与阿尔金断裂带的交汇区域的阿什库勒断裂北段,震源机制解为走滑型.余震区NE向长70 km、宽20 km,分为主余震分布区和次余震分布区,其中ML4.0以上强余震基本位于NE向主余震分布区,N--S向的次余震分布区则以ML3.0左右地震分布为主,显示该部分可能受到主震的触发作用.于田地区曾发生的2008年3月21日MS7.3地震的震源机制解为正断型,距这次地震约100 km;2012年8月12日发生的MS6.2地震的震源机制解为正断型,距这次地震约10 km.该地区的发震构造背景是:在NE向阿尔金断裂带尾端向SW方向延伸过程中,左旋走滑作用逐渐转换为拉张作用,形成多条左旋走滑兼具拉张作用的断裂. 2014年于田MS7.3地震的发震模式表现为:左旋走滑的阿什库勒断裂北段与南段因速率差异而产生的小型构造盆地,在区域拉张作用力下顺时针旋转;2008年MS7.3张性地震后区域的伸展作用增强,导致盆地南侧的苦牙克断裂发生2012年MS6.2张性地震,该地震引起2014年MS5.4前震,两者激发其后在盆地北侧阿什库勒断裂发生了2014年MS7.3主震. 相似文献
18.
Two large shallow earthquakes occurred in 1942 along the South American subduction zone inclose proximity to subducting oceanic ridges: The 14 May event occurred near the subducting Carnegie ridge off the coast of Ecuador, and the 24 August event occurred off the coast of southwestern Peru near the southern flank of the subducting Nazca ridge. Source parameters for these for these two historic events have been determined using long-periodP waveforms,P-wave first motions, intensities and local tsunami data.We have analyzed theP waves for these two earthquakes to constrain the focal mechanism, depth, source complexity and seismic moment. Modeling of theP waveform for both events yields a range of acceptable focal mechanisms and depths, all of which are consistent with underthrusting of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. The source time function for the 1942 Ecuador event has one simple pulse of moment release with a duration of 22 suconds, suggesting that most of the moment release occurred near the epicenter. The seismic moment determined from theP waves is 6–8×1020N·m, corresponding ot a moment magnitude of 7.8–7.9. The reported location of the maximum intensities (IX) for this event is south of the main shock epicenter. The relocated aftershcks are in an area that is approximately 200 km by 90 km (elongated parallel to the trench) with the majority of aftershocks north of the epicenter. In contrast, the 1942 Peru event has a much longer duration and higher degree of complexity than the Ecuador earthquake, suggesting a heterogeneous rupture. Seismic moment is released in three distinct pulses over approximately 74 seconds; the largest moment release occurs 32 seconds after rupture initiation. the seismic moment as determined from theP waves for the 1942 Peru event is 10–25×1020N·m, corresponding to a moment magnitude of 7.9–8.2. Aftershock locations reported by the ISS occur over a broad area surrounding the main shock. The reported locations of the maximum intensities (IX) are concentrated south of the epicenter, suggesting that at least part of the rupture was to the south.We have also examined great historic earthquakes along the Colombia-Ecuador and Peru segments of the South American subduction zone. We find that the size and rupture length of the underthrusting earthquakes vary between successive earthquake cycles. This suggests that the segmentation of the plate boundary as defined by earthquakes this century is not constant. 相似文献
19.
利用2009-2011年三期GNSS观测资料,获得新源—和静6.6级地震前后震中附近区域水平运动速率、主应变率、面膨胀率及最大剪应变率,分析得出:(1)研究区整体呈挤压缩短趋势,南部区域运动速率总体高于北部,而中部区域运动速率高于东西两侧,这与区域构造特点有关。新源—和静MS6.6地震之后,研究区西北部区域的应力场能量得到较大的吸收和释放。(2)从研究区应变分析中可以看出,沿断层出现的主应变率正负交替区域与地震的发生有一定关系。从面膨胀等值线图可以看出,两个面收缩区之间区域是地震发生的重要区域。剪应变区域变化可以反映出地震的破裂方向。 相似文献
20.
Richard C. Quittmeyer 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1212-1228
Teleseismic activity in the Makran region of southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan prior to the great earthquake (Ms=8) of 1945 can be characterized in terms of two stages. First, during the period 30 (or more) to 10 years prior to the main event, the frequency of occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes was relatively high in the region between the impending rupture zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest. These events probably occurred near the down-dip limit of seismic activity within the subducted slab. Second, activity was concentrated along the coast during the ten years immediately preceding the great earthquake and most of this activity was confined to the vicinity of the epicenter of the 1945 earthquake. These patterns are similar in some respects to those observed prior to some large earthquakes in other parts of the world.Three observations concerning the pre-1945 seismicity suggest it was associated with the preparation for rupture of the zone that eventually broke during the great earthquake in 1945: (1) The activity before 1945 is located either within the 1945 rupture zone or between this zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest; (2) No activity of similar magnitude and occurrence rate is observed elsewhere along the Makran plate boundary; and (3) The region that was active prior to 1945 has been relatively quiet since the decline in aftershock activity associated with the 1945 shock. The current quiescence may be related to the release of stress during the 1945 earthquake.Recent seismicity in the region west of that affected prior to 1945 suggests that this western region may be the site of the next large earthquake. Events along the coast are grouped at both ends of a seismically quiet zone, producing a distribution similar to the donut pattern identified by Mogi. In addition, one moderate-magnitude earthquake occurred within the subducted slab to the northwest of the donut pattern along the coast. This moderate-magnitude earthquake, the first to occur in the region immediately west of the 1945 rupture zone since the advent of instrumental recording, may be analogous to the activity of stage one associated with the 1945 earthquake. While by no means providing conclusive evidence of an impending earthquake, the characteristic patterns identified in the recent seismicity indicate that this region should be closely monitored in the future.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution Number 2853. 相似文献