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1.
Detrended canonical coreespondence analysis (DCCA) was used to examine the relationships between diatom species distributions and environmental variables from 62 drainage lakes in the Adirondack region, New York (USA). The contribution of lakewater pH, Alm (monomeric Al), NH4, maximum depth, Mg, and DOC (dissolved organic carbon) were statistically significant in explaining the patterns of variation in the diatom species composition. Twenty-three and sixteen diatom taxa were identified as potential indicator species for pH and Alm, respectively (i.e. a taxon with a strong statistical relationship to the environmental variable of interest, a well defined optimum, and a narrow tolerance to the variable of interest). Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models were developed to infer lakewater pH (r 2=0.91), Alm (r 2=0.83), DOC (dissolved organic carbon) (r 2=0.64), and ANC (acid neutralizing capacity; r 2=0.90). These variables are of key importance in understanding watershed acidification processes. These predictive models have been used in the PIRLA-II (Paleoecological Investigation of Recent Lake Acidification-II) project to answer policy-related questions concerning acidification, recovery, and fisheries loss.  相似文献   

2.
We examined the relationship between three key environmental variables (water depth, loss-on-ignition, and bottom-water temperature) and fossil chironomid distributions sampled from within-lake gradients in three small, moderately deep (18–35 m), maar lakes on St Michael Island, western Alaska. Site-specific (one lake, 29 samples) and local (three lakes, 87 samples) inference models for reconstructing water depth were developed using partial least squares regression and calibration. These models and a previously published regional model (136 lakes, one central-lake sample from each) are used to infer water depths from 78 fossil samples spanning the last ~30,000 14C years B.P. at Zagoskin Lake. Although the site-specific [r 2 boot = 0.90, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 1.76] and local (r boot2 = 0.68, RMSEP = 4.36) inference models have better performance statistics than the regional model, few clear trends among all three models exist in the lake-level reconstruction. We propose that multiple, within-lake sampling of gradients can be used to improve the performance statistics of water-depth transfer functions and ultimately reconstruct paleohydrology in regions known to exhibit large fluctuations in moisture balance through time given that: (1) adequate analogs are established and (2) taphonomic processes important to benthic invertebrate remains are more fully understood.  相似文献   

3.
Lake eutrophication is a problem in many areas of Ontario, although the history of nutrient enrichment is poorly documented. The aim of this study was to construct a diatom-based transfer function to infer past phosphorus levels in Ontario lakes using paleolimnological analyses. The relationship between diatom assemblages and limnological conditions was explored from a survey of diatoms preserved in the surface sediments of 64 Southern Ontario lakes, spanning a total phosphorus gradient of 0.004 to 0.054 mg L-1. Over 420 diatom taxa were identified, 98 of which were sufficiently common to be considered in statistical analyses. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) determined that pH, ammonium, aluminum, spring total phosphorus (TP), strontium, total nitrogen (TN), maximum depth (MaxZ), chlorophyll a (Chla) and mean depth were significant variables in explaining the variance in the diatom species data. The environmental optima of common diatom taxa for the limnologically important variables (TP, pH, TN, MaxZ, Chla) were calculated using weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration techniques, and transfer functions were generated. The diatom inference model for spring TP provided a robust reconstructive relationship (r2 = 0.637; RMSE = 0.007 mg L-1; r2 boot = 0.466; RMSEboot = 0.010 mg L-1). Other variables, including pH (r2 = 0.702; RMSE = 0.208; r2 boot = 0.485; RMSEboot = 0.234), TN (r2 = 0.574; RMSE = 0.0899 mg L-1; r2 boot = 0.380; RMSEboot = 0.127 mg L-1) and MaxZ (r2 = 0.554; RMSE = 1.05 m; r2 boot = 0.380; RMSEboot = 1.490 m), were also strong, indicating that they may also be reconstructed from fossil diatom communities. This study shows that it is possible to reliably infer lakewater TP and other limnological variables in alkaline Southern Ontario lakes using the WA technique. This method has the potential to aid rehabilitation programs, as it can provide water quality managers with the means to estimate pre-enrichment phosphorus concentrations and an indication of the onset and development of nutrient enrichment in a lake.  相似文献   

4.
We investigated the subfossil chironomid fauna of 150 lakes situated in Yakutia, northeastern Russia. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between chironomid assemblage composition and the environment and to develop chironomid inference models for quantifying past regional climate and environmental changes in this poorly investigated area of northern Russia. The environmental data and sediment samples for chironomid analysis were collected in 5 consecutive years, 2003–2007, from several regions of Yakutia. The lakes spanned wide latitudinal and longitudinal ranges and were distributed through several environmental zones (arctic tundra, typical tundra, steppe-tundra, boreal coniferous forest), but all were situated within the zone of continuous permafrost. Mean July temperature (TJuly) varied from 3.4°C in the Laptev Sea region to 18.8°C in central Yakutia near Yakutsk. Water depth (WD) varied from 0.1 to 17.1 m. TJuly and WD were identified as the strongest predictor variables explaining the chironomid communitiy composition and distribution of the taxa in our data set. Quantitative transfer functions were developed using two unimodal regression calibration techniques: simple weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). The two-component TJuly WA-PLS model had the best performance. It produced a strong coefficient of determination (r 2 boot = 0.87), root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP = 1.93), and max bias (max biasboot = 2.17). For WD, the one-component WA-PLS model had the best performance (r 2 boot = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.35, max biasboot = 0.47).  相似文献   

5.
The environmental controls on modern peatland testate amoebae (Protozoa: Rhizopoda) in the North of Ireland were investigated to assess the potential for Holocene palaeoclimate research within this region. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) revealed that hydrological factors (water table depth and moisture content) are the most important abiotic controls on organism distribution. A series of partial CCAs showed that water table depth explains 15.8% and moisture content explains 5.5% of the total variance. Monte-Carlo permutation tests showed that the results are highly significant (p < 0.002; p < 0.040 respectively). Transfer functions were generated for water table depth using weighted averaging tolerance downweighted (WA-Tol) regression and for moisture content using weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS). The performance of the models was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation (jacknifing). After removal of outlier samples, the improved transfer functions were found to perform well with an r jack2 and root mean square error of predictionjack of 0.83, 4.99 cm for water table depth and 0.76, 4.60% for moisture content respectively. The water table transfer function was applied to a fossil peat sequence from this region and reconstruction errors were generated by 1,000 bootstrap cycles. The water table reconstruction was also carried out using an established pan-European transfer function and was found to be similar to that based on the North of Ireland dataset. This demonstrates the persistent and comparable control of hydrological variables on the distribution of testate amoebae taxa across Europe and implies that regional training sets can suffice as long as no-analogue situations are not encountered.
G. T. SwindlesEmail:
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6.
Thecamoebians were examined from 71 surface sediment samples collected from 21 lakes and ponds in the Greater Toronto Area to (1) elucidate the controls on faunal distribution in modern lake environments; and (2) to consider the utility of thecamoebians in quantitative studies of water quality change. This area was chosen because it includes a high density of kettle and other lakes which are threatened by urban development and where water quality has deteriorated locally as a result of contaminant inputs, particularly nutrients. Fifty-eight samples yielded statistically significant thecamoebian populations. The most diverse faunas (highest Shannon Diversity Index values) were recorded in lakes beyond the limits of urban development, although the faunas of all lakes showed signs of sub-optimal conditions. The assemblages were divided into five clusters using Q-mode cluster analysis, supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to examine species-environment relationships and to explain the observed clusterings. Twenty-four measured environmental variables were considered, including water property attributes (e.g., pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen), substrate characteristics, sediment-based phosphorus (Olsen P) and 11 environmentally available metals. The thecamoebian assemblages showed a strong association with phosphorus, reflecting the eutrophic status of many of the lakes, and locally to elevated conductivity measurements, which appear to reflect road salt inputs associated with winter de-icing operations. Substrate characteristics, total organic carbon and metal contaminants (particularly Cu and Mg) also influenced the faunas of some samples. A series of partial CCAs show that of the measured variables, sedimentary phosphorus has the largest influence on assemblage distribution, explaining 6.98% (P < 0.002) of the total variance. A transfer function was developed for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using 58 samples from 15 of the studied lakes. The best performing model was based on weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (WA Inv, rjack2 = 0.33, RMSEP = 102.65 ppm). This model was applied to a small modern thecamoebian dataset from a eutrophic lake in northern Ontario to predict phosphorus and performed satisfactorily. This preliminary study confirms that thecamoebians have considerable potential as quantitative water quality indicators in urbanising regions, particularly in areas influenced by nutrient inputs and road salts.  相似文献   

7.
Climate in central Asia is dominated by the Asian monsoon. The varying impact of the summer monsoon across the Tibetan (Qinghai-Xizang) Plateau provides a strong gradient in precipitation, resulting in lakes of different salinity. Diatoms have been shown to indicate changes in salinity. Thus, transfer functions for diatoms and salinity or related environmental variables represent an excellent tool for paleoclimatic reconstructions in the Tibetan Plateau. Forty freshwater to hypersaline lakes (salinity: 0.1 to 91.7 g l–1) were investigated in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The relationship between 120 diatom taxa and conductivity, maximum water depth and major ions were analyzed using an indicator value approach, ordination and taxon response models. Canonical correspondence analysis indicated that conductivity was the most important variable, accounting for 10.8% of the variance in the diatom assemblages. In addition water depth and weathering were influential. Weighted Averaging (WA) and Weighted Averaging Partial Least Square (WA-PLS) regression and calibration models were used to establish diatom-conductivity and water depth transfer functions. An optimal two-component WA-PLS model provided a high jack-knifed coefficient of prediction for conductivity (r2 jack = 0.92), with a moderate root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack = 0.22), a very low mean bias (0.0003), and a moderate maximum bias (0.26). A WA model with tolerance downweighting resulted in a slightly lower r2 jack (0.89) for water depth, with RMSEPjack= 0.26, mean bias = –0.0103 and maximum bias = 0.26.  相似文献   

8.
We developed an inference model to infer dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in lakewater from lake sediments using visible-near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS). The inference model used surface sediment samples collected from 160 Arctic Canada lakes, covering broad latitudinal (60–83°N), longitudinal (71–138°W) and environmental gradients, with a DOC range of 0.6–39.6 mg L−1. The model was applied to Holocene lake sediment cores from Sweden and Canada and our inferences are compared to results from previous multiproxy paleolimnological investigations at these two sites. The inferred Swedish and Canadian DOC profiles are compared, respectively, to inferences from a Swedish-based VNIRS-total organic carbon (TOC) model and a Canadian-based diatom-inferred (Di-DOC) model from the same sediment records. The 5-component Partial Least Squares (PLS) model yields a cross-validated (CV) RCV2 R_{CV}^{2}  = 0.61 and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP CV ) = 4.4 mg L−1 (11% of DOC gradient). The trends inferred for the two lakes were remarkably similar to the VNIRS-TOC and the Di-DOC inferred profiles and consistent with the other paleolimnological proxies, although absolute values differed. Differences in the calibration set gradients and lack of analogous VNIRS signatures in the modern datasets may explain this discrepancy. Our results corroborate previous geographically independent studies on the potential of using VNIRS to reconstruct past trends in lakewater DOC concentrations rapidly.  相似文献   

9.
This study tests the hypothesis that Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) of lake sediments can be used to infer past changes in tree-line position and total organic carbon (TOC) content of lake water. A training set of 100 lakes from northern Sweden spanning a broad altitudinal and TOC gradient from 0.7 to 14.9 mg/l was used to assess whether vegetation zones and TOC can be modelled from FTIR spectra of surface sediments (0–1 cm) using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression. Preliminary results show that FTIRS of lake sediments can be used to reconstruct past changes in tree line and the TOC content of lake water, which is hardly surprising since FTIRS registers the properties of organic and minerogenic material derived from the water mass and the drainage area. The FTIRS model for TOC gives a root mean squared error (RMSECV) of calibration of 1.4 mg/l (10% of the gradient) assessed by internal cross-validation (CV) yielding an Rcv2 of 0.64. This should be compared with a near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and diatom transfer function for TOC from the same set of lakes, which have a Rcv2 of 0.61 and 0.31, and RMSECV of 1.6 and 2.3 mg/l, respectively. The FTIRS-TOC model was applied to a Holocene sediment core from a tree-line lake and the results show similar trends as inferences from NIRS and pollen from the same core. Overall, the results indicate that changes in FTIR spectra from lake sediments reflect differences in catchment vegetation and TOC, and that FTIRS-models based on surface-sediment samples can be applied to sediment cores for retrospective analysis.  相似文献   

10.
Nutrient over-enrichment of estuarine environments is increasing globally. However, it is difficult to determine the eutrophication trend in estuaries over long periods of time because long-term monitoring records are scarce and do not permit the identification of baseline environmental conditions. In this study, preliminary diatom based transfer functions for the inference of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in east-Australian sub-tropical estuaries were developed to address the deficiency in knowledge relating to historical estuary water quality trends. The transfer functions were created from a calibration set consisting of water quality and associated surface sediment diatom assemblage data from fifty-two sub-tropical estuaries in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. Following data screening processes, Canonical Correspondence Analysis confirmed that TP and TN both explained significant, independent variation in the diatom assemblages. Variance partitioning, however, indicated that the TP was confounded with and may receive some strength from TN. WA and WA-PLS 2 component models for TP that included all calibration set sites yielded statistically weak results based on the jack-knifed r 2 scores $ \left( {r_{\text{jack}}^{{^{ 2} }} \, = 0.22\;{\text{and}}\;0. 2 2 {\text{ respectively}}} \right) $ . Removal from the calibration set of 12 sites that had all PO4, NH4, NO2, and NOx concentrations below detection limit resulted in a substantial improvement in WA-PLS 2 component TP model scores $ \left( {r_{\text{jack}}^{{^{ 2} }} \; = \;\,0.69} \right) $ , indicating that this model is statistically robust, and thus suitable for down core nutrient reconstructions. Caution, however, is required when developing diatom based inference models in Australian estuaries as nutrient cycling processes may have the potential to influence diatom based transfer functions. The model reported on here provides a foundation for reconstructing nutrient histories in eastern Australian sub-tropical estuaries in the absence of monitoring data.  相似文献   

11.
Freshwater midges, consisting of Chironomidae, Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae, were assessed as a biological proxy for palaeoclimate in eastern Beringia. The northwest North American training set consists of midge assemblages and data for 17 environmental variables collected from 145 lakes in Alaska, British Columbia, Yukon, Northwest Territories, and the Canadian Arctic Islands. Canonical correspondence analyses (CCA) revealed that mean July air temperature, lake depth, arctic tundra vegetation, alpine tundra vegetation, pH, dissolved organic carbon, lichen woodland vegetation and surface area contributed significantly to explaining midge distribution. Weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) was used to develop midge inference models for mean July air temperature (r boot2 = 0.818, RMSEP = 1.46°C), and transformed depth (ln (x+1); r boot2 = 0.38, and RMSEP = 0.58).  相似文献   

12.
Diatom abundances in the surface sediment samples of 41 mountain lakes in the central Austrian Alps (Niedere Tauern) were related to environmental variables using multi-variate techniques. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that the pH, date of autumn mixing (A mix), mean August water temperature (T Aug), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and relative water depth (Z rel) made significant contributions to explain the diatom assemblage variation in the lakes of the training set. A weighted averaging partial least square regression and calibration model was used to establish Di-pH (R 2 boot= 0.72, RMSEPboot= 0.131), and a thermistor measurements-based PLS model for A mix (R 2 boot= 0.71, RMSEPboot= 0.006 log10 Julian days). The latter showed a better prediction than T Aug, and was used in terms of climate change. These transfer functions, together with analyses of loss on ignition (LOI), the total carbon/nitrogen (C/N)-ratios, and selected pollen, were applied to an early to mid-Holocene (11.5–4 cal. ky BP) sediment core section from an Austrian Alpine treeline lake on crystalline bedrock. Additionally, passive sample scores in the CCA of the diatom training set were used to show trends in the variables DOC and Z rel. During the early Holocene, diatoms indicative of increased pH, extended warm summers, and low water levels dominated. Between 10.2 and 7.6 cal. ky BP it was followed by diatom assemblages that indicated an increase in lake water depth and an earlier A mix. The multi-proxy data suggest that the A mix decline is the result of a series of snow-rich summer cool and wet climate fluctuations, which were divided by climate warming at ∼9 cal. ky BP. Increased A mix, LOI and DOC, and the correspondent decline in the C/N-ratios, show subsequent climate warming between 7.3 and 6 cal. ky BP. The long-term trend in Di-pH indicates the impact of catchment-related processes during the early-Holocene, that were superimposed by climate.  相似文献   

13.
流域地貌演化的不同阶段沟壑密度与切割深度关系研究   总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6  
张丽萍  马志正 《地理研究》1998,17(3):273-278
主要探讨了在流域地貌演化的不同阶段,沟壑密度与切割深度的复杂关系,建立了沟壑密度随切割深度变化的理论极值模型及相应阶段的函数,补充了各演化阶段地貌形态要素的定量、定性描述;反之,可用沟壑密度与切割深度的关系推断流域地貌的演化阶段。  相似文献   

14.
Previous studies have shown chironomids to be excellent indicators of environmental change and training sets have been developed in order to allow these changes to be reconstructed quantitatively from subfossil sequences. Here we present the results of an investigation into the relationships between surface sediment subfossil chironomid distribution and lake environmental variables from 42 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) revealed that of the 11 measured environmental variables, salinity (measured as total dissolved solids TDS) was most important, accounting for 10.5% of the variance in the chironomid data. This variable was significant enough to allow the development of quantitative inference models. A range of TDS inference models were developed using Weighted Averaging (WA), Partial Least Squares (PLS), Weighted Averaging–Partial Least Squares (WA–PLS), Maximum Likelihood (ML), Modern Analogues Technique (MAT) and Modern Analogues Techniques weighted by similarity (WMAT). Evaluation of the site data indicated that four lakes were major outliers, and after omitting these from the training set the models produced jack-knifed coefficients of determination (r 2) between 0.60 and 0.80, and root-mean-squared errors of prediction (RMSEP) between 0.29 and 0.44 log10 TDS. The best performing model was the two-component WA–PLS model with r 2 jack = 0.80 and RMSEPjack = 0.29 log10 TDS. The model results were similar to other chironomid-salinity models developed in different regions, and they also showed similar ecological groupings along the salinity gradient with respect to freshwater/salinity thresholds and community diversity. These results therefore indicate that similar processes may be controlling chironomid distribution across salinity gradients irrespective of biogeographical constraints. The performance of the transfer functions illustrates that chironomid assemblages from the Tibetan Plateau lakes are clearly sensitive indicators of salinity. The models will therefore allow the quantification of long-term records of past water salinity for lacustrine sites across the Tibetan Plateau, which has important implications for future hydrological research in the region.  相似文献   

15.
Diatoms are identified and enumerated from the surface sediments of 100 lakes of Truelove Lowland, Devon Island, N.W.T., Canada. These lakes range from large oligotrophic lakes, to small tundra ponds, to coastal marine lagoons which are diverse in terms of ionic concentration and composition. The relationship between diatoms and 15 limnological variables is examined using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Specific conductivity is identified as the most important variable influencing the distribution of diatoms in the Truelove lakes. A Weighted Averaging (WA) calibration model is developed to predict diatom-inferred specific conductivity. The reliability of the model is tested by evaluating the correlation between observed and diatom-inferred values and determining the error of prediction by bootstrapping. The applicability of the predictive conductivity equation is demonstrated by reconstructing the paleoconductivity history of Fish Lake.  相似文献   

16.
A calibration data set of 51 surface sediment samples from Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was investigated to study the relationship between sub-fossil ostracod assemblages and water depth. Samples were collected over a depth range from 0.6 to 80 m. A total of 16 ostracod species was identified from the lake with about half of the species restricted to the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent mountain ranges and poorly known in terms of ecological preferences, and the other half displaying a mainly Holarctic distribution. Living macrophytes and macroalgae were recorded in Lake Donggi Cona down to a depth of about 30 m, and bivalve (Pisidium cf. zugmayeri) and gastropod (Gyraulus, Radix) shells were found down to depths of 43 and 48 m, respectively. The ostracod-water-depth relationship was assessed by multivariate statistical analysis and ostracod-based transfer functions for water depth were constructed. Weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression provided the best model with a coefficient of determination r 2 of 0.91 between measured and ostracod-inferred water depth, a root mean square error of prediction of 8% and a maximum bias of 10.6% of the gradient length, as assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Our results show the potential of ostracods as palaeo-depth indicators in appropriate settings. However, transfer-function applications using fossil ostracod assemblages for palaeo-depth estimations require a thorough understanding of the palaeolimnological conditions of lakes and therefore detailed multi-proxy analysis to avoid misinterpretation of ostracod-based inferences.  相似文献   

17.
Ireland provides a unique setting for the study of past climates, as its climate is dominated by westerly airflow from the North Atlantic and readily responsive to changes in North Atlantic circulation patterns. Although there has been substantial research on Ireland’s past environments, quantitative palaeolimnological research, especially chironomid-based research, has been lacking. In order to further develop chironomid-based palaeolimnological investigations, a calibration set was constructed to determine the dominant environmental controls on modern chironomids in western Ireland. Chironomid subfossils were collected from surface sediments of 50 lakes. The lakes were characterised with 36 environmental variables, including physical attributes, lake water characteristics, lake sediment characteristics and land cover within each catchment. In this exploratory study, no specific environmental variable was targeted and lakes were chosen to span gradients of latitude, elevation, depth and trophic status. Redundancy analysis showed that six environmental variables—mean July air temperature, lake depth, dissolved organic carbon, and percentage catchment land cover of agriculture, peat bog and scrubland—captured a large and statistically significant portion of the variance in the chironomid data. July temperature and agricultural land cover were the most dominant environmental variables, with July temperature proving the most suitable for inference model development. A classical weighted-averaging model was developed to estimate July air temperature, with a coefficient of determination (r jack 2 ) of 0.60 and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.57 °C. Results suggest that summer temperature is the dominant influence on chironomid distribution across a wide variety of lake types, and the relatively small RMSEP should allow for more accurate reconstructions of Ireland’s relatively subdued Holocene temperature fluctuations.  相似文献   

18.
It is well received in the space syntax community that traffic flow is significantly correlated to a morphological property of streets, which are represented by axial lines, forming a so called axial map. The correlation co‐efficient (R 2) approaches 0.8 and even a higher value according to the space syntax literature. In this paper, we study the same issue using the Hong Kong street network and the Hong Kong Annual Average Daily Traffic datasets, and find surprisingly that street‐based topological representations (or street–street topologies) tend to be better representations than the axial map. In other words, vehicle flow is correlated to a morphological property of streets better than that of axial lines. Based on the finding, we suggest the street‐based topological representations as an alternative GIS representation, and the topological analyses as a new analytical means for geographic knowledge discovery.  相似文献   

19.
A 72-lake diatom training set was developed for the Irish Ecoregion to examine the response of surface sediment diatom assemblages to measured environmental variables. A variety of multivariate data analyses was used to investigate environmental and biological data structure and their inter-relationships. Of the variables used in determining a typology for lakes in the Irish Ecoregion, alkalinity was the only one found to have a significant effect on diatom assemblages. A total of 602 diatom taxa were identified, with 233 recorded at three or more sites with abundances ≥1%. Generally diatom data displayed a high degree of heterogeneity at the species level and non-linear ecological responses. Both pH and total phosphorus (TP) (in the ranges of 5.1–8.5 and 4.0–142.3 μg l−1 respectively) were shown to be the most significant variables in determining the surface sediment diatom assemblages. The calibration models for pH and TP were developed using the weighted averaging (WA) method; data manipulation showed strong influences on model performances. The optima WA models based on 70 lakes produced a jack-knifed coefficient of determination (r 2 jack) of 0.89 with a root mean squared error (RMSEP) of 0.32 for pH and r 2 jack of 0.74 and RMSEP of 0.21 (log10 μg l−1) for TP. Both models showed strong performances in comparison with existing models for Ireland and elsewhere. Application of the pH and TP transfer functions developed here will enable the generation of quantitative water quality data from the expanding number of palaeolimnological records available for the Irish Ecoregion, and thus facilitate the use of palaeolimnological approaches in the reconstruction of past lake water quality, ecological assessment and restoration.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT

One of the major challenges in conducting epidemiological studies of air pollution and health is the difficulty of estimating the degree of exposure accurately. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations vary in space and time, which are difficult to estimate in rural, suburban and smaller urban areas due to the sparsity of the ground monitoring network. Satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been increasingly used as a proxy of ground PM2.5 observations, although it suffers from non-trivial missing data problems. To address these issues, we developed a multi-stage statistical model in which daily PM2.5 concentrations can be obtained with complete spatial coverage. The model consists of three stages – an inverse probability weighting scheme to correct non-random missing patterns of AOD values, a spatio-temporal linear mixed effect model to account for the spatially and temporally varying PM2.5-AOD relationships, and a gap-filling model based on the integrated nested Laplace approximation-stochastic partial differential equations (INLA-SPDE). Good model performance was achieved from out-of-sample validation as shown in R2 of 0.93 and root mean square error of 9.64 μg/m3. The results indicated that the multi-stage PM2.5 prediction model proposed in the present study yielded highly accurate predictions, while gaining computational efficiency from the INLA-SPDE.  相似文献   

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